122 thoughts on “HALF CYCLE LOW?

  1. LiesandDamnLies

    I just thought that I would repost this as it was at the end of the last thread and I think is important enough for people to examine.

    Nadeem Walayat (editor marketoracle.co.uk) who has been accurately calling the bull market from 2009 to date (including a call a number of years ago that the Dow would make the 20K at this time frame ) today announced that he that for the first time in several years that he is shorting the Dow. To understand why check out this article.


    I’ve followed him for a number of years now and cannot fault his guidance. He called both the Brexit and Trumps win early when the bookies odd were 6/1 or over. Anyway on the marketoracle website you can view each of his articles over time by looking at author archive and make your own judgement.

    He has a huge following and I believe that today’s post has the ability to influence the market on its own.

    The coming week will be interesting for most markets including gold. As I pointed out in an earlier post the Chinese markets are closed for the week and things can happen in the gold market while the Chinese traders are away.

  2. Steffmeister

    Yup, I’ve said several times lately that the US indices is close to a top, maybe there is a ten year cycle lurking around behind the curtain of markets?


    I am convinced we will see a top for common stock in 2017. Gold is a different story all together.

  3. Goild

    Gary thanks for the thoughts on Gold.
    It appears that currently gold’s number is $1200. It has been since 2013 and currently we do not have a significant financial event to think differently. In fact the SM still has some time topping and with the low GDP, interest rates probably will be kept low so inflation would not take off so soon. So it appears that gold in the near future will stay anchored to around $1200. Last week we saw gold in the range $1180-$1220,
    Of course with Trump anything can suddenly happen.
    As per tomorrow Monday…
    Looking at the daily candles of gold, Yen, USD, TIP, TLT, gives a 50/50 chance to go either way.
    Looking at the weekly candles it is apparent that last week gold’s candle is ominous and the move is unfinished.
    On Friday gold fell to about -40% while the miners -30% from the Monday peak, and closed at about -30% and -20%. Either gold over did the drop or the miners are lagging the drop. Carrying JNUG and NUGT can be very risky as a 20% drop can easily take place.
    The decision on the USD to break support will likely not be made tomorrow. So it is unlikely that we will have any substantial up move on gold tomorrow Monday. Beware of a mild gapping up with low volume which can be a bull trap, or beware of a double top within the first half hour in the open. I see NUGT potentially dropping to about $8.65, which would be the bottom of a sideway channel.
    I think Pedestrian has about the same or similar view for tomorrow.
    Another rate hike would further threaten gold but there is a chance there will be none in view of the weak GDP.

  4. Goild

    One also can toss the import tax which it is said to strengthen the USD and can explain gold’s drop last week.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m not sure why anyone still thinks a rate hike is bad for gold and good for the dollar. Does anyone bother to look at what has happened after the last two hikes?

      The dollar has topped both times and gold has bottomed.

      1. Gary Post author

        The stock market is what is pressuring gold. As long as traders feel they can get a risk free return in the stock market there isn’t a lot of incentive to buy gold.

        The thing that would really send gold flying would be for the S&P to negate the recent breakout and start an intermediate downtrend.

        1. WallStreetJesus

          Gary – have you ever thought about writing a book?

          While nobody can predict the future your approach seems sound over the long haul.

  5. Goild

    Yes, thanks for making the point on gold/usd and rates.
    I agree with you that a rate hike may not be bad for gold or is bad. In fact a rate hike means inflation is coming and that is good for gold.
    From the peak USD drop is about 2.5%, but gold’s rise from the bottom is about 5.5% so gold and USD are not quite tied.
    Note however, as per last month the immediate effect of the rate hike was to negatively affect gold.
    So indeed for the short term a rate hike can threaten and send gold a bit lower. But I do not think much, back to $1225.

  6. Goild

    Sorry, meant back to $1125.
    And yes, there is a strong likelihood that a downtrend of the SM will make gold go up.
    That is the expectation.

  7. Option Trader

    Wow, is it just me or is anyone feeling that the precious metals should soar on Monday? Trump’s executive orders regarding immigration ban, a few days ago, has sparked world havoc over the weekend. I’m thinking tonight’s futures for gold should be strong. And if not, I feel its a gift to enter tomorrow morning on long positions.

  8. Robert

    Gary you are looking on daily chart. Just look on the weekly chart. Last week’s rejection can sleep closed below opening of prior candle and swing low. There should be a little more downside rather than new highs

  9. Goild

    Yes, it is tantalizing.
    Tomorrow people around the world can start selling USD and SM.
    But no, the rich people are backing up Trump.

  10. Pedestrian

    We all know that dollar speculative long positions are at very high levels and while not at a record they are much more elevated than usual. Basically everyone and his dog thinks the dollar will go higher and that might even be true.

    But did you also know oil longs were also near all-time highs? This fascinating anomaly must be making some people pull their hair out as the dollar and oil usually trade inverse one another. So how in the world can both be seeing extreme long positioning at the same time?

    Well anyway, after we had a discussion on this site yesterday about the prospects of the dollar and gold moving up together and therefore commodities and the dollar rising together, it got me thinking and doing some reading and I came across an article talking about the above noted anomaly.

    The writer concludes either one or the other must break so the old correlation gets back to its norm. In other words, either the dollar falls or oil prices fall since the market must be wrong that both could go up together. But that is indeed what positioning is telling us. And so I have to ask everyone here to consider whether this is bullish for precious metals as well.

    Will the dollar AND commodities rise together and is this major correlation going to break this year? Or is this just a temporary divergence warning us of something else to come? For what its worth, if you look at the article linked you will see that spec long positioning on oil is making what will probably become a double top. In other words, oil longs are going to go in reverse as crude starts falling again.

    Personally I would be long dollars / short crude at this juncture.

    World Out Of Whack: One Of These Is Likely To Break

    1. MegaMind

      Ped, I looked at correlation between dollar and oil and see that it has already broken down. Currently there is no correlation

      1. Pedestrian

        I saw that. How did you arrive at the numbers? Or what charting did you use to make the correlation calculation? I am asking since your numbers were pretty specific, but over what period for example.

    2. WallStreetJesus

      Most of the speculative traders are simply trend traders. They do not pay much attention to fundamentals. They just ride the trend.

      The “revert to the mean” trade can stay out of whack for a very long time – years.

      There is probably some money to be made spread trading oil – short the front month, going long the back month with the hope the front month drops more than the back month – which generally happens if the trend is down.

      2017 should be a interesting year for investors 🙂

    3. Adrian

      Well, I´m short crude since thursday night at 14.07, the put cal open interest reaching an extreme, an stochastics beyond +50 the past week were my trigger.
      I sell a oil CFD 1X149, working well until now.
      Planning holding until put cal open interest reaching neutral.

  11. TraderPete

    I agree with Gary’s scenario that gold will probably go up to about 1,240 to 1,250 before we see a two-legged pullback, and then a resumption of the uptrend. I’m reposting my previous thoughts since I’ve added some new material and since they were at the tail end of the previous article.

    I’m just guessing, but I think gold and silver will peak sometime next week or the following week. I believe silver could reach 18 to 18.5 before it pulls back, in an a-b-c wave count or two legs down, to about 16.5 or a little bit lower by the end of February or early March, which will be another great buying opportunity. That should complete the first mini impulse wave among a series of others going forward. On Friday, silver had an outside bullish key reversal and closed only 11 cents below the high of the day, basis the March month, instead of closing near the opening price. That is bullish behavior, in my opinion. Usually, if silver is weak, traders will sell the rallies and bring it back down to near the open or even lower, but not this time. That indicates to me a thrusting momentum move or impulse action, which is bullish; and we should therefore see follow-through next week. Also, the three day RSI briefly went below 30 (oversold) before shooting back up. Friday morning was a good entry point (near the low of 16.635), which I took advantage of. Also, the GSR finally broke decisively through 70, and ended at 69.59 on Friday. Finally, the seasonal patterns favor gold and silver to go up from mid December to mid April or May; and since the YCL occurred on 12/15/16 for gold and 12/20/16 for silver, the trend is upward and onward.

    I’m very bullish (bellow, snort) gold and silver, especially silver. 3 : (:) ♉️

    PS: The dollar index is going down as I speak.

      1. TraderPete

        I get it from ThinkOrSwim (TOS), or you can also get it from Kitco.

        By the way, was this site down for awhile? I couldn’t reply for the longest time.

        1. SLEP

          Yes, I also noticed the site was down for a LONG time today. Could anyone tell me what happened to it?

  12. Steffmeister

    Garys pattern is a bearish one, a head&shoulders pattern. Either we already got a retest low last week or we will get one 2-8 Feb, 12th the latest.

    The question is if we are in a C up or an impulsive 1-5, then a third explosive up wave will follow!? Let the market decide.

  13. Goild

    The weekly candles for oil and USD say oil is going down and USD is going up.
    USD weekly candle is bullish and Oil’s is bearish.
    It seems from this perspective gold is going down for the week.

      1. WallStreetJesus

        Where should I buy Silver? Gold?

        Maybe it will go down if that’s what your charts are telling you.

  14. WallStreetJesus

    The Euro is up along with JPY so gold will probably open higher in 30 minutes (futures trading).

  15. Epiphany

    Gary – I posed this question the other day but you never answered. If if the markets are dominated by government intervention and manipulation, both preventing normal market cycles, why would you try to apply primarily cycles and secondarily sentiment in your trading methods? Both seem to be irrelevant in the face of massive intervention and manipulation. I’m really curious of your rationale that allows you seemingly engage in conflicting beliefs. I’m sure it’s just too complicated for me to understand, right? Or maybe I just don’t watch your videos closely enough?

  16. Epiphany

    If the markets are dominated by government intervention and manipulation, both preventing normal market cycles, why would you try to apply primarily cycles and secondarily sentiment in your trading methods? Both seem to be irrelevant in the face of massive intervention and manipulation.

    1. Gary Post author

      That one is easy.
      First off I haven’t seen much evidence of manipulation lately in the metals. The banks got busted and fined on that one. So it seems to be coming to an end.

      The main area where intervention is rampant is in the stock market. Central banks discovered they could control the business cycle in 2012 by artificially propping up the stock market.

      It boils down to: It’s impossible to have a recession as long as the stock market stays elevated. So we haven’t had normal intermediate corrections ever since. Any sell off always gets abort prematurely before it can build any momentum. Even the 7 YCL was cut short before it could run its full course.

      The actions to be taken: Never, never, never short the stock market.

      Whenever price does manage to sell off for a short amount of time be prepared to buy quickly as it’s unlikely a correction will be allowed to run to completion.

      1. Epiphany

        Buying into any stock market selloff hardly seems like cycles analysis to me. How much can I charge for a service whose sole advice is to buy every dip in the stock market? It’s actually sound advice for any long term investor but hardly something you need to pay an analyst for or use cycles or sentiment analysis. Buy, hold, add on sell offs. That will be $500 please! LOL.

  17. Option Trader

    I follow options and I am carefully watching how $SLV and $GLD close on 1/31. I plan on making a very large purchase of options if the current patterns hold up for the next 48 hours.
    I will disclose more later.

    1. Robert

      I dunno if this will play out again Surf. Gold strong tonight and USD alrdy breaking down
      It appears Gary might be right that Fri was a half cycle low. This implies USD will get flushed once more and gold may see back 1220. This one is tricky but the odds seem to be for the gold bulls

    2. MegaMind

      cycles are not as fixed as you want them to be…. these could stretch out…so give it some time to breath… I am sure these will go up eventually,,,

  18. macman1519

    Forget ur charts, gold is up tomorrow, Trumps paranoia is affecting the Republican party that is now going along with Trump’ s ravings. World condemnation of Trump is growing. The tail may be wagging the dog in the USA but it wont wag the world. Trump is leading backwards, destroying what has taken years to build internationally, big winner in all this? China and gold. Until Trump is impeached due to insanity or being a Russian puppet, this uncertainty will grow. Oh by the way, those seven Mideast countries that are banned have no Trump businesses in them, while Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and UAE, which arent in the banned group, do have Trump businesse, Hmmmmmmm, Wake up America before u and Russia are the most hated countris in the world, right up there with North Korea. Since Trump became president, has the world perception of the US improved? Hell no, its going in the toilet. No chart will tell u that, no trend will take into account a moron of Trumps magnitude. The world knows it, the democrats know it, but the Russians love Trump, Hmmmmm wonder why. RONNIE, build that wall, ya right, 15 billion wasted, better spent on your education system. A system so poor that 40 percent of the populace couldn’t see the con that was perpetrated on them by this shyster. If you are truly educated and honest, not just a republican wobblehead, you should have seen by now the immaturity and paranoia that fllls ur president. Keep following blindly into a future that will destabilize the world, drive increased trade to China, and deminish American influence and respect. Well done Herr Trump. Go a head a name call me, you are too stupid too see what is right in front of your face. Trump is more concerned with the size of his crowds, dont take him literally, what a friggin joke. He needs babysitters trying to interpret and explain his paranoia and visions of grandeur. Hitler made the Jews wear the Star of David, How about the Red Crescent for all the Arabs and their supporters. That’s the ticket, all supporters should wear the Red Crescent. Gold going up, dollar down, thank you Trump.

    1. bill

      Take your politically retarded self else where this is a trading forum not your politics soap box, besides you sound like a moron.

    2. RonL

      Happy to see others call this boring and retarded person on his hateful comments. He certainly does not belong on a investment forum.

  19. dboz

    Talk about propaganda. You just witnessed 8 years of the most radical admin in history who repeatedly broke the law. Get off you paranoia rant and remove the tin foil hat chicken little.

  20. Goild

    Good morning


    Wonder how you see the financials? It seems it is time for them to dive and so there is the opportunity to get into FAZ?

  21. ARends

    Bill, Ron, Dboz, well put!

    Sorry tried my best not to comment but here is my technical analysis of the previous BS and not PM or SM.

    I am not even American but have been following a bit! I found it just amazing how people get dragged along with media created hype with absolute nothing but word phycology and repetitiveness creating propaganda supposedly claiming to be main media with the fakest news contradicted by own news in a few years back, dividing the country. It has been so clear how divisive the media has been one sided for a purpose. They (media and critics) become or are precisely what they accuse Trump of which has been just amazing to see. I am just amazed to see how people eat the bullshit fed by elite-owned and sponsored media and twisting facts and no one does the effort to follow up the actual facts and information like wiki-leaks, interviews by retired CIA, NSA talking of the BS in the US. They rather attack the messenger and skip all the facts then it becomes clear and after being confirmed that it was a inside of democrats leaking information (confirmed few resources)and they actually still beleave Russian hacking while its all rigged from democrats that there has been proven and squashed in the senate (used against Bernie, Algore other) over past years that media just doesn’t cover because of ownership of media. The corruption and trading have proven the corruption by elite and rich lobbies, and no one sees the wood from the trees while they do precisely what they blame trump for is just amazing. That report that seems to be written by a 12-year-old kid with a disclaimer that information can not be verified or the truth that is was the hacking report is the biggest joke (confirmed by a few retired intelligence operators in the field from the US). All the protesters were taken by busses of organisations all sponsored by George Soros, that sponsored Hilary, destrabilised Ukraine (with other east block countries in his own (Supported by US?)admissions on TV in past news. Nevermind that Soros is an investor in nearly all the companies that supply the electronic voting machines…hahaha. The people become precisely what they blame the others to be is amazing to see. I have never seen such extreme twists of facts fed to people. The markets are rigged, the media is rigged and then expect the politicians not to be rigged…hahahaha. Sorry just had to spill the beans for the ignorant!

      1. ARends

        A must to add!
        All the leaked info by the insider on Hillary was enough for her to be Smuggler, ISIS arms dealer, election rigger, Racist, incompetent politician, bought by lobbyist, traitor, extreme layer, security risk (max jail) and everything contradictory to what she said but worst , she is what she blamed \trump to be ..hahaha. NOT a word of that by the main media..Not a word. Amazing!

    1. Pedestrian

      OK good. and here I thought I had been blocked because I did not see the usual welcome of “Howdy Pedestrian”.

      Anyway, as predicted on yesterdays thread, gold did make a minor bounce in the pre-market to my target of 1195 and then in defiance went on to post another $2.90 before reaching a high of 1197.90 where it topped. Since then it has slowly backed off and by the time the market opens should be on its way down towards my new lower bound target of 1182.

      By the looks of it now that move could be rapid and complete itself today which means bear trades will rule. Nothing is ever written in stone however and there is an outside chance, however small, that gold will not reach that lower target until tomorrow.

      At the time of this writing though (8:14 am NYT) I suspect the drop may be precipitous and fast. Check in with me later if this is indeed the case and I can explain how I came to that conclusion.

      1. Pedestrian

        Hold that thought. The chart just changed and it did not take long. It is wait and see now where this is going in the next hour.

  22. macman1519

    Trumps latest tweet, his ignorance of the process isvastounding.

    If the ban were announced with a one week notice, the “bad” would rush into our country during that week. A lot of bad “dudes” out there!

    How can u defend a moron like this unlees u are a moron too. Buy gold, uncertainty increases daily with an Emperor with no clothes is the leader of the free world.

  23. macman1519

    Trumps latest tweet, his ignorance of the process isvastounding.

    If the ban were announced with a one week notice, the “bad” would rush into our country during that week. A lot of bad “dudes” out there!

    How can u defend a moron like this unlees u are a moron too. Buy gold, uncertainty increases daily with an Emperor with no clothes is the leader of the free world.

    1. dboz

      BO did the exact same thing…….TWICE. 2011 and 2015. You are the uninformed, media target. Sucked right in on the propaganda. It’s 90 days to reassess the process of vetting FROM 7 COUNTRIES. Get the facts and get a clue. Your words show the rest of us who has a brain and who is a puppet.
      My last post on this as I do not wish to CLUTTER Gary’s site with this left wing garbage.

  24. Steffmeister

    This is exactly what the Elite wants, divide people. It’s at every level in society not only in the US. Europe were I live has the same shit going on. The news is not news anymore, it’s elite propaganda.

    One day they blame Swedish healthcare for mistreating immigrants and recently a child was killed. The next day it’s crimes committed by immigrants, sexual assaults of young Swedish girls, etc. and so forth.

    This is planned by the elite and their kneedogs, like Reinfeldt former Swedish premier minister and Carl Bildt. I’m not so sure that Trump is a nonElite, time will tell. Create maximum disorder and divide people until it breaks. Then present the NWO plan as a solution to solve all problems. Patriot/Elite Act Extreme, no liberty no freedom.

    It’s a complete mess over here, an accident ready to happen. About 1million lives outside of society in Sweden, that is 10% of the population, with no hope of a future for themselves or their children. What will happen when the economy/debt situation finally breaks?

  25. jonsyl

    Trump has vowed to get rid of swamp dwellers. One of the biggest who denounced Trump on repeated occassions and then retracted or muddled his response when he needed Trump’s base to survive was and is Ryan. Won’t be long before Trump’s usefulness will be a liability to Ryan, McCain, Graham, Corker and many others. They will take control from Trump leave him hanging with Bannon, Gullisani and others. Democrats are largely irrevelant in this upcoming transition

  26. macman1519

    Yea keep shooting the messenger, while avoiding to comment on the idiocy that comes from Trumps mouth. The loud majority on this site are obviously conspiracy obsessed people, featful of their own shadow. Trump will lead you to depression and open revolt in ur own country. Make Amerikkka great again, right. Truly amazed how you can defend a man so riddled with faults and overwhelming ignorance of world affairs, and so what if he’ Putin’s puppet. Lol you guys are so missing the point. You now have a king ruling by executive order. Enjoy your ride into disaster, mark my words, you weak minded sycophants, gold up, buy it!, Trump is the best thing for gold!,,,,

  27. Gary Post author

    Folks I’m sure there are political blogs that would be a better place for these comments.

    Let’s stick to financial stuff here.

    1. RonL

      Thanks Gary, I agree. Save one’s political views for the proper forum. The rest of us don’t want to hear it on a financial blog.

  28. Option Trader

    **** Silver *****

    I am watching Silver very carefully here over the next 36 hours. If Silver (SLV) can close at its current level, and no big pullback by Tuesday’s close, silver will confirm a multi year bullish set up, that will offer an entry of a lifetime… It must stay strong for 36 more hours.

    Watch Silver!!!

    1. Steffmeister

      I hope you are right, I own four Silverplays in Mexico, Trumps favorite country:

      Majestic Silver
      Great Panther Silver
      Avino Silver
      Kootenay Silver

      I watched a very interesting documentary yesterday about solapanels, China is ramping up their solarpanelproject at great speed. In one day they now producer more than what they did in 2004-2008 four years. Solarpanels key component is silver.

      China is buying silver miners in Mexico aswell. The whole Arab continent is doomed if they do not switch to alternative energy sources like solarpanels. Dubai’s oil is gone and soon United Arab’s oil will vanish.

  29. macman1519

    Gary, this is financial. Who Trump really is affects gold, His words and policies matter. For too long this site has given him a pass. That is not fair to people who want the facts, not the alternate facts. Gold is up, why, Trump. Ped looked at his charts and missed this rise. I bought on friday because of what Trump did and i will continue to call out Trumps rediculous decisions and Tweets, they will continue to affect risk and america’s standing in the world. Hence the price of gold will rise. If you cant see that, you’ve been in your charts too long, smell the coffee read some newspapers, look at the repulsion Trump is causing around the world. That has an affect on gold. You want to pretend that Trump is the next great thing and the US economy is on the brink of exploding to the upside, go ahead and lie to ur readers. Trump is great for gold, the more he shoots his mouth off and reaffirms his ignorance, the more gold will go up, wait till the Chinese new year ends, Gold will fly. Thank yoy Trump!

    1. Gary Post author

      The simple fact is that there is no easy why out for us. No one is going to be able to turn around 4 decades of poor decisions without a lot of pain.

      It doesn’t matter who is president. If Hillary had won we probably would have continued to make the problem bigger and bigger. With Trump we may get our pain sooner.

      But make no mistake at some point the piper will have to be paid. There’s no avoiding that.

  30. ARends

    Here is an interesting observation by Apri:
    As we couldn’t take out the 2015 December low during last year we can assume it’s very possible the bear market has ended in 2015 and we are not going to see sub 1045 prices for a while…
    If the bear has ended in 2015, the 2016 low at 1123 is also a long term low which should not be taken out.

    During the bear market we had bear market rallies after the yearly lows. The yearly lows were printed for weeks as a rounded bottoms with many back tests and whipsaws. (10-31 candles)
    These bear market rallies always ended with V-shaped tops. Traders became bullish in a very short time during these rallies it peaked in a parabolic way and when goldbugs bought the last breakout price turned immediately down and started to go down into the yearly low.

    What I see in 2015 and 2016 is exactly the opposite.
    If we assume we are in a bull market we have bull market declines instead of bear market rallies.
    These declines are bottoming the same way as bull market rallies topped: with V-shaped bottoms(4-5 candles).
    And the top of the intermediate cycles are rounded tops just like the rounded bottoms were at the bear market’s yearly lows…

    1. ARends

      and China’s gold market is closed .
      They like to smash gold when China is closed.
      If we rally this week China will continue buying gold next week…

    1. Pedestrian

      Good call. I just bought JDST @ 18.60 and fingers crossed this is not going to be a bad day for me.

      1. Pedestrian

        Moments ago I sold JDST for 19.75

        That was a good day. Still waiting on DSLV but she is moving up and needs more time. I might have been too early but there is no point getting greedy.

        1. Pedestrian

          If anyone is curious why I sold just now I can tell you it was because JNUG broke below its falling channel line and that instantly gave me doubts about the continued strength in JDST. This is trade number 9 (or is it 10?) of the past two weeks and all were a success. I posted more or less in real time for the benefit of the buy -and-holders who seem so critical of short term trading strategies. Not that I have anything to prove. I don’t. But rather just to show that it can be done successfully if you are focused and use a good technical approach. That was incidentally also the last trade I will be putting up here. It has taken a lot of time for me to learn this and I am not interested in anyone following my work without doing your own. And also because eventually I will have mistiming mistake (happens to all of us) and the whole group are going to have a bad day together. Anyway, I think I proved my point that it sometimes pays better and is less risky to trade short term and get back into cash within a day or two. Sure, I might miss some upside but I also avoid the bitter unexpected draw-downs and weeks or even months of waiting to get back to even. I like to sleep at night and not suffer the regrets of trade errors that grow darker as time passes. As I had mentioned to Gary earlier, it is no more costly doing this that having a buy-hold strategy. You consider the commission paid on each trade as simply a cost of doing business. It is not that high either relative to profits anyway if you are coming out ahead. In my case I saw a 14% gain on my metals portfolio in about 14 days using just a small fraction of the available balance. That is pretty respectable on an annualized basis and I will let the math geniuses figure out what the numbers are. So all I am saying here is to keep an open mind and just because some people HATE so-called day trading does not mean it isn’t an avenue to pursue if you have the aptitude. You will blow up a lot less capital this way as long as you avoid the impulse to gamble.

  31. Dreamer

    Did Trumps’ weekend Exec Order cause the stock selloff this morning or is that too convenient an excuse to point too?

  32. Don

    The stock market was has been overdue for a correction. The PMS are where you want to be long and short the the stock market, despite what Gary says about manipulation.

  33. Gary Post author

    This is why I don’t put a lot of faith in chart patterns.

    At every cycle bottom whether it’s a half cycle, full daily cycle, or intermediate, the technicals will say price is going down. You can’t spot trend reversals with technicals.

    At the December bottom every technical trader was saying price was going lower. I was one of only a very few who was looking in the other direction. Friday all the technical traders were again in the boat that gold was going lower.

    I went out on a limb and said I thought gold was about to complete a half cycle low.

  34. macman1519

    Hell yes Dreamer, Trump is the story, the longer he is in the spotlight and shows his stripes, the longer uncertainty grows and stocks are affected. The degree of this affect is debateable, but he has made himself the story. Ignorance is not bliss, especially when u are supposed to be the leader of the free world. When is the last time American tech companies have come down so hard on a president and his policy on immigration. World markets have gone down since Friday and gold has gone up. One reason Trump.

    1. bill

      Please ban this moron for us Gary this is not a politic venue…im sick on reading this morons speak…

        1. WallStreetJesus

          Haha that’s a good question. I think the scorch can go either way. Its folks caught on the wrong side of the market.

  35. Don

    Gary, when your cycles don’t work, you say they have ‘evolved’. How about just admitting that cycle work is unpredictable or just plain “don’t work’ as an investment tool?

    1. Gary Post author

      Cycles don’t work, or not work. They just are what they are.

      Sometimes I’m a little too early, especially if a cycle stretches, but that doesn’t mean the cycle didn’t work.

      Cycles are driven by human emotions. Until we get rid of those all markets will have cycles.

      Manipulation can certainly extend a cycle, or cut it short (like in the stock market), but it won’t banish it completely.

      FWIW I haven’t really seen any evidence of manipulation in months in the metals sector. The banks got busted and are paying fines. That probably means the end of any major manipulation in the metals going forward.

      1. ras

        Let cycles, HCL, DCL, ICL, or whatever, be. Gold unlikely to make NH now. Next support for nugt around $8.75?

        SM getting ready for a descent? UVXY/TZA/DUG/KOLD would seem to lead the way. Interesting times ahead!

  36. ARends

    Loaded on more JNUG 1280 missed the dip and held few lots (7.99) from last week. Technicals as Gary said can’t be trusted but considering resistances then trying ..the swing trades..hahaha until balls turn into a koekie, believed to be a red herring now (still tossing the coin!). Going for contrarian and now the turkey for 1250 possible correction. Opportunity knocking on door with Trump, China and SM. Ok I have found a few technical that help confirm…not too bad

  37. Goild

    Hi guys,

    It appears that getting long and loaded on NUGT is becoming harder.
    We will see how things appear at the end of the day and after 2/1 at 2:00 PM.
    In the mean time I just pocketed $420 for lunch.
    Good trading to all.

  38. macman1519

    Thank you Gary for allowing diversity of views on your site. Lately, ur bashers have gained more standing on this site, but I am here because of the diverse views expressed. It is up to the reader to judge the veracity of every post. I am here to make momey, your views help me in this regard, Gary. Don’t let the nay sayers get u down. After visitting many sites, you are my main one for reasoned perceptive insite into the gold market. I only play the gold market because of its volatility, great for trading the constant ups and downs. The uncertainty in the world is increasing, elections in Europe this year will add to this uncertainty and therefor risk rise and gold will follow, As u have said many times the bull is back and gold will go up. Thanks Gary

    1. bill

      To all these liberals outraged at Trump banning refugees: Where the F were you when Obama was dropping bombs on immigrant homelands?

      1. ARends

        Yes and openly admitting arming those. .TERRORISTS AND ARMING Suadi THAT brought 911. Just unbelievable. Started supporting terror in Libia…then let those fed up with US to do the same. Thanks Obama and Hilery…trust them to run the US…hahaha

        1. ARends

          Where were the dems marching against Obama and Hillary that orchestrated the whole labia and terror funding…just crazy man

      2. Don

        Bill, very good point. Notice how same Obama loving liberal media hypocrites are calling the the travel ban as being a “Ban on Muslims ” when in fact, 46 other Muslim countries have no restrictions placed on their citizens. It’s a ban on seven countries that are loaded with terrorists that would love to get into the US so they could drive trucks through crowds of Americans (without hitting any liberals, of course) Trump is doing exactly what he said he would when campaigning, unlike so many lying career politicians. Good for Trump for having the balls to stand up to all the idiot left wingnuts.

    1. Albertarocks

      There is a glaring negative divergence on the daily charts in gold, silver and all the mining indexes. The metals and mining indexes have all registered higher recent highs but their momentum indicators have not. This sets up an indication that has measurable implications and it suggests an ugly decline in mining stocks is *possible*. Even though I’m basically a perma-bull on gold and miners, I still have to pay attention to this. So I adjusted my account to a state where I won’t lose any money if miners crash, but I also won’t make much either if they put in a rocket shot. But I’d prefer to be “unhurt” by what appears to be possible nasty action over the rest of this week, rather than wake up one morning to find my account down by 7%. If the miners tank, awesome… I have cash to pick up stocks on the cheap at some point. If the miners burst to the upside (which I am not expecting), then I have to reassess and jump back long once I’m convinced this divergence is going to resolve to something that makes sense.

      I learned long ago (the hard way) how important it is to be very cautious and mechanical so that I’ll always survive an unexpected downdraft. I’m seeing that possibility right now. Maybe it’s just going to be a minor pullback, but these indicators are used for a reason. It could also be something much bigger so I’m just going on “safe mode” until the metals markets show their hand.

        1. Albertarocks

          Thanks. Here’s basically what I do when the markets gets into a position where I sense that a bigger pullback might be in the cards. Keep in mind that I don’t know for sure:
          – I put stops at strategic levels just below each mining stock, expecting (hoping) that they don’t get filled. But if they get sold, no big deal. It almost always turns out that they got sold for a reason and they continue lower for a while after that. If any companies refuse to sell… great those are the keepers anyway.
          – I let the stocks sell, those that want to sell… until I’m only about 50% invested.
          – I try to keep 25% cash
          – the remaining 25% cash goes to double bear miners ETF.

          Net result is that I’m still 50% long, 25% short with a double ETF… so the amount of money that is invested is in effect balanced. And 25% more in cash.

          I set this up when I get nervous… when the market is threatening to go “anywhere it wants, and not necessarily the direction *I* want it to go.” In other words, I set it up when I’m at risk because the indicators are flashing warning signs that go completely against the direction everyone seems to be expecting.

          To be honest, I listen to the viewpoints of at least a dozen other ‘analysts’ because I respect their opinions and their observations. I want to get a general sense of what they are thinking. Very often they make great points. Other times they have their heads so far up their arses that I simply enjoy the humor of it all. Then I completely ignore them all and go with my own TA. Basically it all boils down to being very careful, and extremely nimble. I can change my mind and my market positions in an instant… once something happens that all of a sudden makes it more than obvious what is going to happen in the weeks ahead. I have had remarkable success with these strategies over the past 18 months or so.

          All the best.

  39. Don

    Wallsrteetjusus: You had me about copper. I don’t follow copper closely but it definitely does not correlate well with the PMs. The monthly chart for copper doesn’t look all that bullish whereas the PMs look much better for the bulls.

  40. zbigkid

    From here on for the rest of the year, gold will be trending upward, while stocks will be downward. The giddy optimism in the markets up to now, has been pure folly, based on nothing more than hopium. People are surprised Trump is doing actually what he said he was going to do. Go figure. (they thought somehow he was just a politician, just lying to get elected ????). Nope. he is going to build a wall, and it will be more than a physical wall, and policies or modifications to trade deals will be taken as ‘protectionist’ which will not be taken well by the markets once they digest he is actually going to get these things accomplished. Its not about saying, but rather doing. This change in the status quo is SIGNIFICANT, and will upend governments, nations, the IMF, the UN, the World Bank, and in fact, eliminate all talk of SDR’s. So gold will reap the benefits of government uncertainty, and turmoil this will cause. You think everyone is up in arms now, just wait until reality actually sinks in. These early moves by Trump are just warm ups. Its laughable, that it took an entire week for markets to figure out this shit. The indexes have been basically parabolic since election day, and not only will they erase all of that irrational exuberance, they will go much lower, and do so far faster than anyone here today can imagine.

    The best observation by far, that I have seen by any pundit, is the one that said all these countries out there have been feeding at the trough of America for years, and that we have been carrying them with trade deals HEAVILY favorable to them, but not us. Apparently nobody listened to Trump during his campaign, bc thats all he pretty much talked about. He IS going to change it, and the changes will be dramatic ! They have to be, to undo all of the massive world imbalances. When more than $15 trillion in global bonds are trading with NEGATIVE interest rates, there is no surer sign than that , that the world is off its freaking rocker in terms of whether this is sustainable. It ain’t. Trump intends to be the catalyst for change, and you know what ? Ain’t one damn thing any politician can do to stop him. As all of this has been inevitable, and Trump knows that.

    US Stocks going down, and going down massively, will be the best thing thats happened in markets since before the year 2000. Gold going up, will largely be a symptom of all the uncertainty.

    P.S. Dow 30 component revenues are exactly where they were at in 2010. 2010 market levels are the very least of where the market is going to correct back toward. Not one soul right now is expecting this at all, that is trading stocks. The market could not be more bullish and totally complacent than it is today, and in fact its way more complacent than the 2007 top, and the 2000 top by a large margin.

  41. Gary Post author

    The S&P broke its intermediate trend line today.
    Pre 2009 this would’ve been a virtual guarantee that an intermediate degree correction had begun.

    However in our modern managed markets it doesn’t guarantee anything.

    It does mean the PPT has their work cut out for them if they are going to keep the market propped up.

  42. Goild


    The divergence between gold and the miners is due I believe to the fact that gold overshoot down and the miners lagged. So today they leveled.
    Perhaps tomorrow would be the turn of USD to go up and we will have a decline on gold.miners.
    USD unlikely to fall tomorrow.
    Probably things will be well visible by the close on Wednesday after the FOMC.
    The work to do is finding any insight that might point out the way prior to the FOMC outcome.

    1. MegaMind

      markets already have this FOMC thing figured out as these are rigged markets… so basically the indicators are telling us that whatever the news miners are going to sell off…

      1. Albertarocks

        Also, I think the manipulators have a problem. The Shanghai exchange is closed for this entire week. Gold price on the Comex has already risen enough last Friday and today that the price of gold on the Comex is the same as in Shanghai. That’s unheard of. If the turds on Comex drive it any higher, the price of gold on the Comex will be higher than actual physical in Shanghia. Normally they slam gold down on the Comex so that the spread is anywhere from $10 to $50. Right now it’s $4. So I don’t think gold can go anywhere but down this week.

  43. Goild

    I decided not to second guess. Gold is going up and so I loaded some NUGT shares at $10.15.
    We shall see.
    Good trading to all.

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