Mining Stocks Bull Market
A longer term view of the 20 month moving average on mining stocks suggests that a new bull market is well underway. This moving average has not only been recently retested but is rising as in previous bull markets. The negative sentiment extreme reached several weeks ago is providing the fuel for this first leg higher.
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I am a long term chart fan. It fits my time frame for investing. Thanks for this commentary Gary.
BTW Ped, I saw you predicting a six handle for XAU near the end of the previous string. Good luck with that prediction. I certainly wouldn’t call it pedestrian!
I have been wrong before, Strike. Not that it matters much. Everyone speculates on price and most speculation is wrong because the majority must lose for the market to function properly. Its a fact that some 80% of individual traders cannot beat the market. Thankfully I am not one of them. So we can only know who is right and who is wrong according to actual trading results after the fact. Look me up in a month and if I traded it I will tell you how it went. It’s pointless telling me I wrong before the fact.
Exactly where did I say you were wrong Ped? I wished you luck – see 2 posts above.
My mistake. I am so used to the bugs nipping at my heels its probably just automatic defensiveness.
Gary,
Thanks for the global view.
From the technical point of view, the arguments are convincing.
Daily action of the candles shows a bullish air.
USD appears to be going down steadily.
I hope you are right as now I hold 8 NUGT lots.
Have a nice weekend guys.
Hourly pm charts look toppy. This could be unwound if price pulls back over several days to 50 day ma. The resulting crouching could generate the big leap that bulls are looking for. Time will tell. The tight price range can not last for ever. Hopefully, we will see some resolution soon.
You are talking my language. Anything above an hourly is not that easy to trade on an immediate basis and generally amounts to bets based on hope, faith and speculative impulses. It’s why almost everyone gets it wrong because they can’t read charts out to the daily level with good accuracy. I have noticed most of the gold debates center on daily chart technicals and perhaps its because that is the default level view most sites open at. If traders spent more of their time understanding smaller charts they would have a better advantage. Charts are fractal. You can test your ideas in real time on the smallest degrees and with repetition get a better feel for the pattern set-ups. What I mean is that by watching one minute or five minute charts with regularity you get a more intuitive sense of the way technicals play out without having to wait weeks or months for answers as you do on daily or weekly charts. That gives you an advantage. The same patterns that you see on long charts are also repeating on those of the smallest time periods. Maybe I am just saying the obvious. But if you wanted to really get a handle on technical analysis quickly you would try to trade daily and see your predictions and ideas playing out in real time. There really isn’t a better way to dispense with stuff that just does not work and get your mind focused and what does pay off.
It costs though. Call it a pay-as-you-play education. I have had small trades completely blow up in my face and learned to never do the same thing on long bets where larger amounts of money are involved. So I did not write the post above for lack of experience. I have been crushed more than a few times making mistakes that I will never repeat again (thank you God for that!).
hourly and below time frames TA is useless unless you are a day trader… 90% of people will not be able to do it… I for one have found the daily and 2hr useful… weekly and monthly are uselsss as far as technical indicators go…
ras,
If you look at the daily miners uprising, feb-march, last year, and consider that they currently have been over the daily averages, then there is indeed reason to be bullish. We have good volume too.
I thought today was a critical day to be won and gold indeed did well. Yesterday and today the manipulators had a great time inflicting pain both ways. The candles no doubt show an uprising trend.
As you would say, time will tell.
Interesting volume in the NUGT February $20 contract .
A 7 cent option that saw 80% selling on 947 contracts gets you excited?
It’s also 100% OTM.
80% selling? ok I’ll wait for your proof to this selling this should take your awhile I’m sure but I’ll wait
Exactly what would you like Bill, since my word is not enough?
OK since I’m a nice guy, I went back and checked, you’re talking about February 24th Weekly calls.
Don’t get excited. It’s still ONE HUNDRED EFFIN PERCENT OUT OF THE MONEY. 100%. ONE HUNDRED. PERCENT.
Trader came in at 13:09 ET and put in his bid at 15 cents when bid/ask was $0.15 to $0.44 and kept his bid there until the sellers dried up. Then he dropped his bid to 12 cents and after down to 11 cents, 70% filling at bid. Some went at ask just due to the spread collapsing to one or two cents.
When the first trade hit, Implied Volatility (IV) was at 140%. With buying action, this goes up; especially with heavy buying. What happened here? It dropped to 126.9% and stayed there until the last trade. This activity lasted from 13:09 ET to 14:41 ET and was not preceded or followed by any other trades.
Yes, there was some buying here, a bit here and there. But 80% action was selling. This is either a covered call or most likely a naked call selling activity as it’s too far OTM to be a covered play.
In other words, just because you see volume, don’t assume it’s bullish action. And at 11 cents, don’t even waste your time.
You’re cracking me up, Homer. Don’t get me laughing too much or I’ll have to join in.
Amazing how morons congregate
That’s why you’re here Bill.
It wasn’t meant to humor you or anyone Pedestrian, it’s knowing how to read options flow. I see tons of large volume strikes but it doesn’t mean they are bought.
I was just pointing out the volume on the contract it self as a conversation piece the rest of what you added to your post i ignored I don’t need your advice to place a trade, and I find it odd that you assume I did , but it if mac you feel good so be it.
I’m not giving you advice, you can be intrigued all you want by the volume and that’s your business but it’s clear to me you would not mention it unless you thought it biased to your outlook.
Oh and hey nice guy… I’m
Up over 400% in my NUGT trade since dec if I listened to half or three quarters of you shills who post here I’d be DOWN 400% as most of you clowns were calling the sky is falling as usual .
Take what any poster says here folks and do the opposite it’s always a win especially when pedestrian makes a call
Lol
Jesus Murphy. So you held all this time? What is wrong with people like you that cannot take a profit at an obvious top? I don’t see a gain there Bill. I see a 70& lost opportunity and a year out of your life waiting for your ship to come in.
NUGT was nearly a ten bagger at the top! You have no business criticizing me.
Again Bill, I’m just breaking down ONE option strike that you brought up. I did not give you any advice at all. I didn’t even talk about any trades from you or I. Go buy what you want, when you want, based on what you think; it will not disrupt my sleep pattern.
GDXJ Institutional ownership is 45.14%. SPY, for comparison purposes, is 74.53%. Weight Watchers WTW is 88.43%. H&R Block is 98.11%. Doesn’t mean much really.
Gary,
Thanks for the video. More importantly, thanks for inspiring me to look at the XAU chart.
How does the XAU index compare to the HUI??
I use the GDX chart for most of my analysis, but it doesn’t work on the longer term charts — not even the 200 week SMA — So I’ve been using HUI. Now I look on tradingview.com, and the XAU data goes back much further in time… data I need for some of the longer term moving averages, such as 100 month SMA, which does not go all the way back to the beginning of the 2000s bull market on their HUI chart.
This is the first time I’ve ever pulled up the XAU chart. At first glance, it satisfies some basic needs on the longer term, as does the HUI: (1) It contextualizes the 2011 peak; and (2) it also contextualizes the Jan, 2016, low. It simply provides more historical data, at least from tradingview.com
So I plan to keep using it, in place of HUI, for that 100 month SMA chart…
I’ve been focusing on the XAU because it’s been the leading index. The others will follow the leader.
Yikes — one big problem with the XAU chart:
It made a LOWER LOW in 2016 than the 2000 low!!!!!
Not sure what to make of that???
Pedestrian,
Bravo on grabbing JDST late afternoon.
That was brilliant day trading by you that I noticed — the two JNUG day trades, followed by going for JDST late Friday.
As I mentioned Friday morning, I noticed my premature short position just a little too late. My forecast is much better than my practical trading skills — I have tons of math & science & Econ background that all feed into forecasting. Trading, on the other hand, is a whole different game, and I’m working ASSIDUOUSLY on it.
Well, same thing happened to me at the charity poker tournaments I played in China last summer. I made the same practical mistake 3 times: Holding a pocket pair, flopping 3 of a kind, betting moderately, then going all in on the river, when the river card turned out to be the 3rd suited card on the board. All three times, I got knocked out by my opponent, who had a flush.
But by the 4th time around, I folded my 3 of a kind when the river turned up a 3rd suited card on the board — and won the tournament. From that moment on, my reward:risk ratio increased to 2:1.
By autumn, for every 3 weekly tourneys, I averaged 50 CNY buy in, and averaged winning one (200 CNY prize); coming in second in one (100 CNY prize); and not cashing out in one. Thus, average buy in for 3 weeks: 150 CNY; average winnings in 3 weeks: 300 CNY, for a 2:1 reward:risk ratio.
Even though my average money at risk was only $7.50 USD, and payouts were only $30 & $15 USD — I was super motivated to cash out EVERY week.
That meant adjusting my strategy, which entailed adjusting my thinking — which I have always been willing & able to do. I am stubborn, except when I’m not — when I see the light, I’m supple-minded.
Thanks. I never know what to think when I hear people disparage short term trading (I loath that term Day-Trade btw) so its refreshing to hear a positive comment. The principle behind it is simply to take your profits NOW rather than make long term unpredictable trades. Buy and hold is for genuine bull markets but I still don’t believe gold is in one so I am unwilling to make a big commitment just yet. That time will come though. I think we are getting close to a lasting bottom once gold hits 1100 (possibly 1080 on a spike low) and we are not that far away from it now. I am really bothered by all the relentless pro-gold rhetoric that passes for intelligence on most gold blogs. Everyone is waiting. Hanging by a thread. Why bother with it though. I just trade what I see and leave the wild eyed speculation to others.
Thanks. I never know what to think when I hear people disparage short term trading (I loath that term Day-Trade btw) so its refreshing to hear a positive comment. The principle behind it is simply to take your profits NOW rather than make long term unpredictable trades. Buy and hold is for genuine bull markets but I still don’t believe gold is in one so I am unwilling to make a big commitment just yet. That time will come though. I think we are getting close to a lasting bottom once gold hits 1100 (possibly 1080 on a spike low) and we are not that far away from it now. I am really bothered by all the relentless pro-gold rhetoric that passes for intelligence on most gold blogs. Everyone is waiting. Hanging by a thread. Why bother with it though. I just trade what I see and leave the wild eyed speculation to others. It means one has to be willing to trade both sides though.
GDX has been trading in a narrow range since January 5.
Experienced traders like Pedestrian know how to successfully maneuver in these types of consolidations. They have 3 valuable attributes: (1) experience; (2) they are not attached to bullish or bearish bias; and (3) they realize that sometimes they’re right, and other times they’re wrong, and it’s no big deal — they take action to control their losses, and just consider them as the cost of doing business as a trader.
Looking at yesterday’s lower high in GDX, I just see more consolidation. We’ve had 2 weeks of it — and maybe we’re at the midpoint. 2 more weeks to go. Where does that leave us for the next breakout — bullish breakout, I do believe???
GROUNDHOG DAY!
As in FOMC meeting.
As I posted a couple of days ago, I do believe gold & GDX have a date with their respective 20 day SMA’s before their next bullish moves. There will not be much of a bearish breakdown, rather, the 20 day SMA’s continue to rise, and gold & miners kinda move sideways into them, before breaking out. Once the consolidation and subsequent bullish breakout complete, that would complete a zig zag off the December lows, and a likely intermediate top.
Twixt now & then, I’m gonna get my strategy right & improve my PRACTICAL results!
Early next week my plan is to take a much larger short trade on both gold and miners. I think we have a very significant decline that lies dead ahead. I won’t predict it with 100% certainty or anything like that but it looks good to go and if opportunity arrives I will be hitting the trade hard.
let me chime in to this as it is very important… if you even look at the 5min, 30min etc shorter term charts, you will spend lot of energy looking at patterns that just blow up…. all this frickking nonsense about fractals is crap… these don’t exist as all these markets are manipulated… your life is manipulated… my blanket statement is that everything on this planet is manipulated by some dark forces…. but things are now changing depending on what your focus is…
ok i went deep there but had to shed the light on this thing called markets… these are not normal….
There is no such thing as a bull or bear market… just charts that have to be traded…
I hear you Megamind. I look at this in aggregates though. Sure there is manipulation. My wife manipulates. So does my cat. And the neighbor, and the in-laws, and the teller at the bank and also the coffee girl at the diner who would like to trade places with my wife if she got an opportunity.
But in aggregate all that manipulation that is part of life (and also part of daily trading) , creates patterns that repeat. Maybe this is philosophy we are getting into here. The manipulations which are really just a reflection of basic human nature are a reflection of our sameness. They are thus predictable since none of us are really all the different from one another anyway.
Part of the reason I can say that is because of my familiarity with very old charts going all the way back to the Depression years. You can see the same kinds of patterns repeat over and over again. Hundred year old charts are just as easy to read as current day charts. You see the Fibs, the Elliot patterns, support and resistance, arcs, double tops and double bottoms and so forth.
And you get the same patterns on multi-decade charts as you do on five minute charts.
I don’t think any of that is strange at all. Are we not just biological machines?
Have you ever had a cat or two? They are all pretty much the same. Sure, each one is unique in its own way but all of them run some basic programs that are easily visible no matter where you go. A cat in Boston is much the same as a cat in New York. They fight the same, sound the same, mate the same and give affection to their owners the same.
People are no different which I am sure you will have observed if you have had more than one wife. We are predictable too just like cats are predictable in their basic nature. That’s why the study of demographics is so fascinating. During certain parts of our lives we (as a human group) tend to do the same things. We move in waves. We find mates, get married, raise families, buy houses, take vacations, grow old and often enough get divorced.
At each step along the way we see markets respond to the group behavior. So then why should charts that are a refection of group behavior not also reflect that behavior in pattern repetition? And why should they not do so at every level of chart available which was my assertion in the prior post?
So I don’t think it is the differences we need to concentrate on to be a success with trading. And I don’t think either that we should be bothered by manipulation since it is an ever present part of human nature. It is our sameness that matters and the acknowledgement that people (who are the driver behind price movement on charts) do not change all that much over historical time-frames nor are they particularly different from one another even from country to country.
Get that right and the market looks a lot less complicated afterwards.
i have stopped looking at timeframes below 1hour… my minimum is 2hr…
Pedestrian,
That issue of not repeating previous mistakes, is the most difficult to address in day trading.
As traders we ingrain very deeply some habits, some are bad and some are good.
We human operate on habit, which is both mental and corporal.
In my view reading the candles is not so difficult, but acting on the candles in real time is crux as there is
a fight between what the candles say and what we want. What we want blind us so often.
I’ll say it one final time. Making predictions and speaking in absolutes is what retail traders do. This obsession with making bold calls and trying to define markets as a bull or bear is what destroys novice traders. Real traders could care less and instead focus on probabilities and how to scale and manage risk. Rookies go all in and blindly let it ride because it’s a so-called bull market. Look at stocks over multiple time frames and take advantage of the many opportunities that the market gives you to manage your exposure and risk.
Absolutely, Mac.
Brilliantly stated Mac.
Mac,
That all sounds good on paper, but like most of the “so called truths” it’s just pure nonsense.
Every trader has to have an opinion on future direction. I’ve shown multiple times how waiting for “confirmation” more often than not just means you are buying at the top of a rally, or selling at the bottom of a correction.
Without a crystal ball no one can possibly know when a trend is going to start and end.
Ped thinks the trend in metals is coming to an end. I think it still has at least 1-2 months to go yet. How can one seriously calculate any probabilities to which one of us is correct?
Calling bull and bear markets isn’t that hard. If price is making higher highs and higher lows then the odds are it’s a bull market.
The best anyone can do is develop a system that they can follow and that has a decent history of working in the past.
For myself I rely on cycle analysis and sentiment as my two main tools. Then technicals and COT levels as secondary timing tools. Chart patterns are a distant 3rd place as the big commercial traders can paint the charts to show pretty much whatever they want them to show. Undercut bottoms are a classic example of big money creating the chart.
If no one knows for sure when a trend is going to start or end then why do you continually try to predict it? I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss everything that hasn’t worked for you in the past or things that you haven’t quite figured out. I don’t expect my comments to resonate with you but am hopeful that they will inspire somebody to go do some actual research and learn how professional traders actually trade. If you think that they are nonsense then just delete them or pay them no attention.
That one is easy. I’m using my two main tools cycles and sentiment to try to get me in early at the beginning of an uptrend.
It doesn’t always work. Sometimes I get thrown a curveball like the election night shenanigan.
But often it works very good. It allowed me to catch the bottom of the yearly cycle and we’ve now made back almost all the losses from being too early on my last trade. The metals portfolio is right back near it’s all time highs at +119% as of Friday’s close.
Just because you don’t understand cycles or don’t track sentiment doesn’t mean they aren’t valid tools.
Like I said every trader has to have an opinion on future direction. Otherwise you are just trading in hindsight, and as far as I know no one has ever figured out out to make anything other than imaginary money with that strategy.
When did I say cycles or sentiment aren’t valid tools or that I don’t use them? I’m not interested in continuing a back and forth here anymore so I’ll stop posting now. For anyone else who cares, please keep an open mind and spend the time at least looking into the concepts in my initial post. Ego has no place in trading.
So far, price was unable to overtake derived indicators on the upside. So, this could open the door for a downside excursion where price outpaces derived indicators on the downside to 20/50 daily mas. It is important to note that ma 20 has been curling up for a while. More often than not, when price pulls back to a rising ma, it represents a buying opportunity. Time will tell.
For consistently successful trading, we do not need De Moivre’s theorem from trigonometry or Fast Fourier transforms from applied math or quantum mechanics from physics. That would be an overkill. All that is needed is a thoroughly tested workable method (in the desired time frame) with a high probability of success along with proper risk management, stemming from the recognition that all methods fail at times because of the random component in price movement occasioned by black swans.
Successful consistent trading requires understanding the quantum description of reality, which includes elements such as the superposition of states and wavefunction collapse or quantum decoherence, give rise to the reality we perceive.
Everyone here is just yapping. FACT: gold has made a weekly close, above 1200, at 1210. We will get to 1220+ this week so more gains for miners. You can start thinking of shorting after that
Maybe you will be right. I kind of doubt it though. Notice that the gold move this year is at an interesting angle such that a nice “V” formation has been created. This is off the beaten track a bit but when I see that shape it almost always retraces all or more of its move and goes back to the bottom.
These patterns sometimes turn into a “W” once bottoming (if there is a real uptrend in the asset) and the bull is back on. Go check a few other charts for yourself and see what I mean. Make note of the angle of attack on the rise and how even and straight it is. This is a lesser used technical but still valid.To find the termination point of the rally you need to usually identify major resistance such as an important MA or channel line and you are good to go.
It’s called a V-Bottom if you are curious. That is what gold has created this year. The V’s lead to double bottoms (AKA W pattern). The trade is to short into the obvious decline which can be short duration and then get aggressively long as soon as it bottoms.
Ped, I agree with your assessment… gold is at a major major resistance that i am seeing. I am not going to post the chart as it is very revealing of what you just mentioned. also my chart is forecasting major support at 1110.
Ok i looked again… looks like 1140 is showing up as a major support… so if it goes below 1140 then it would go to 1110
Cool. That set-up is my highest probability gold trade right now and I feel pretty good about it. As always though it could defy the odds and gold break a little higher which creates another even more compelling set-up while changing the outlook on metals at the same time. I do not want to miss the reversal if/when it comes. Possibly by Monday morning? Finger on the button! Cheers.
Incidentally I am still long the JDST trade I picked up last week. My buy point was very near the lows of the session and I have an expectation of a considerable bounce in the next while. This morning I came across a chart over at Goldtent that is instructive.
(I am starting to really love that site now that I discovered it btw).
Here it is:
https://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/IMG_20170121_091323.jpg
What I want to point out about this chart is that the author Dadoc1 has erred in assessing the pattern according to how I read a chart. Hopefully he won’t feel offended if he reads this though and sees I used his chart as my example.
What you want to do in this case is ignore his bottom channel and the wedge he has marked out and instead redraw the line straight from the August 2016 low to the present.
Once that is done you have identified a clear expanding wedge which is also known as a “bottom megaphone”. The next move out of this pattern will be explosively higher and that is one of the reasons why I have now positioned short miners and gold.
It’s funny to come across this chart actually. I have been monitoring it for months already using my own method and waiting for the set up. We have arrived there now. Gold longs are going to get destroyed in the next while and miners are set for a very painful purge.
This is only one of a variety of charts I am watching and the message to me is clear. I would only say that bulls should be VERY cautious going forward because the V bottom on gold has likely concluded its peak.
Metals are going down hard (and the dollar is headed for 1.05).
ped… couple of things to keep in mind this year are the two monster elections in europe … france in april……..germany in october…. should keep some support to gold as a hedge…. so with that in mind… the gold market could potentially build out a rectangular formation before heading higher at end of year may be…
Can you recall any election that altered gold for more than a brief period of time? Neither Trump nor Brexit materially affected gold prices for more than a few days. Why should Europe be different?
Yes, every one has a method that fits his/her mental structure, circumstances, and account level.
Yes, three things need to be common for success: probability considerations, money management, and consistency in applying the method.
I hear some here being bearish. I do not understand. Perhaps they are looking beyond next week. As for next week what I see is: Gold has closed for six days above $1200; Gold closed this week with a doji candle, weekly volume on GLD starts to increase and yesterday significantly increased, the miners are on an uptrend, USD failed yesterday to continue a possible reversal, the miners are above the daily and weekly averages. A possible negative item is the gold topping mentioned by ras. Though this could be explained by the USD frustrated attempt to rise. So it gold were to go lower we perhaps should have a bull trap. There are a number of good reasons to expect another good week. Let us see how it develops and adjust as necessary.
Jesse Livermore said that for the big money one needs to know something else. Lacking that knowledge, common sense can be a substitute. And for the case of gold either it will indeed rise beyond $1374 or pessimistically it will channel around $1200. Hardly one can expect to see again the $1125 of December.
Money flows have turned down ahead of yesterdays gold bounce and did not budge despite the sharp move higher late Friday. That is a sign a bull trap is in the works. Volumes have also been trending down since the January 5th peak pointing to a lack of conviction and I suspect that is a combination of bulls being exhausted after 6 months of declines and spec traders unwilling to make fresh bets.
The real problem though is timing. Gold has already been in a cyclical uptrend since middle December and its time for a rest. It has arrived at “channel resistance” which can be formidable during a decline. Had there been more punch from the bulls we might have seen a breakout above the upper channel but in the last few trading days the energy has not been there.
Gold miners have sagged as a result. HUI and XAU look like they are rolling over, not bursting higher. Gold will make that decision next week because its make or break time on that rounding pattern that’s been developing during all January.
Meanwhile the daily MACD on gold is in a topping pattern (weekly is indicating a buy). I still see the set-up for negative pressure over the short term, perhaps lasting as long as month more before a breakout comes. With the HUI just barely holding above the 100 day its a false breakout until further notice.
But we shall take it as it comes. My bias for now is to the downside.
Pedestrian,
Good analysis. Thanks.
As per real physical principles that truly govern trading it is nothing else than:
THE UNCERTAINTY PRINCIPLE
Hooray for Dr. Professor Werner Karl Heisenberg. As applied to trading, one can know the price exactly or the time exactly, but not both. 😎📈👍
Actually, according to W. D. Gann, TIME is more important than PRICE, or, as Larry Williams would say: WHEN is more important than MAGNITUDE.
“W. D. Gann placed great emphasis on the 90-year cycle, which, Gann advocates say, predicts a potential financial crisis occurring in 2019. This year will be 90 years after the financial crisis of 1929, which itself occurred roughly 90 years after the Panic of 1837. And a smaller cycle of note, 144 months, also coincides with 2019: 144 months is the span between 2007 (the most recent major financial crisis) and 2019.” –From Investopedia.com
I’m expecting slightly lower miner prices next week based on daily cycle analysis. Its definitely a right translated cycle, and I’m buying more long term 1X when it hits certain MA levels.
If a bull market, the price can’t crash and significantly erode at this point. If not, all bets are off. lol
As per that the miners are lagging gold, probably not. They in fact are ahead as compared to last year rising. Gold is about to reach the $1225 knee point of last year while the 3X miners are already ahead of their corresponding knee point.
The $1225 knee point for gold appears as the right place to end the V and to set the bull trap.
One item to watch is whether Trump’s possession will affect the market this coming weeks.
Gold pushed up at the end of Friday and it might be a good sign.
There is the possibility of gapping up on Monday.
Yes, gold’s volatility currently is not as much as in the similar period last year.
Less volatility may indicate more confidence?!
Had not appreciated last year’s volatility in the uprising.
We must prepare to stomach large variations.
This year so far gold/miners have been gentle and nicely behaved.
I may drop three NUGT lots as now I have eight, and compensate day trading.
It can get very tough.
A very simple strategy that has worked well even in the bear market is to buy when the weekly stochastics are oversold and sell once they get overbought. One could throw in several more confirming indicators like, sentiment, cycles & COT levels.
Based on all the above gold should have at least 5-10 more weeks to rally before one needs to start looking for a larger degree top.
Gary,
Thanks for pointing it out, and showing the stochastic graph starting to rise from oversold.
I did also look at the daily stochastics. Compared with immediate past cycles they look overbought and ready to dive. Compared with early rising in 2016 they still need to keep overbought for 1 or 2 months.
Immediate yearly history shows that the first quarter has been good for gold.
looks like 2002-2003 .. gdx going to correct
This guy has been very accurate with his cycle analysis I like his articles and it makes more sense giving projections http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article57869.html
So Gary, gold will prbly push little more here to about 1220s and then DCL before new daily cycle to conclude around 1280-1300 ending the intermediate cycle and then ICL.
No one seems to be taking into account the euro cycle.
Gold is unlikely to find its daily cycle top until the euro does.
At best gold might drop into a half cycle low but the daily cycle should have a couple more weeks before it tops.
BTW this is why most retail traders fail to make money during a rally. They are constantly trying to dodge wiggles and in the process they miss the rally days.
The entire rally out of last years bear market bottom to the August top could be attributed to about 15 days. If you were out of the market on any of those days you missed a big chunk of the rally.
At some point soon the XAU is going to break through the 200 DMA. It will probably do so in a big way and maybe in the premarket. If you are out of position trying to dodge a wiggle you will miss it.
All ye short term traders/day traders, whichever you prefer:
I recall very few giving their opinion for $GOLD longer term, say year-end,with the exception of z who said 1150 I think.
My curiosity has a reason – I’m not fishing for advice. I’m looking for the general market disposition of the active traders here. Thanks.
do u mean ‘at worst’….=HCL….
Gary, you do your fair share of jumping in and out of trades so let’s stop with the lectures about the pitfalls of ‘day trading’. Don’t ask me to provide ‘proof’ that you have been jumping in and out of gold miners, biotechs, etc because you and everyone else that follow you know that it’s true.
Getting out of crude with a small profit. i am not liking the recent COT data that shows extreme long position of the specs.
The stock market should be crashing and it’s not. There seems to be a bid every time there is the slightest pull back.
Strike: For what it’s worth, I think the longer term, gold is going to make new highs and I don’t think it’s going to take years to do so.