43 thoughts on “WATCHING THE BOND MARKET”

  1. Robert

    So Gary, what if gold doesn’t make a new high above 1220 and just continues to be weak? Would the next daily cycle still be a good buying opportunity?

  3. Goild

    Good morning

    I guess a few of us now are in about the same situation as in December.
    That is choosing the time to get back into the miners.
    The opportunity could be very swift.
    NUGT at $10.15 looks good.
    Perhaps the move should be to get a 1 or 2 lots at this price.
    Though today it looks like gold will further fall.
    There is significant resistance for NUGT at around $9.2
    I wonder how you guys see it?

  5. Goild

    Yes, I also think that such a move can happen soon.
    Right now the miners and Yen are touching the bottom trend line of their respective uprising channels.
    USD appears to want to touch the upper trend line of its channel.
    Gold and TIP look like starting a reversal and so after the last two days sentiment may not be the best and people would want to wait and see.
    With the SM going knots we may have a repeat from yesterday.
    USD may continue resilient especially in view of the FOMC upcoming meeting and a possible rate hike which could send gold a bit down. So thinks appear not so clear currently.
    Let us hear other’s insights.

  7. Robert

    Goild it looks like miners are going down to a DCL and we will not get any further upside so should go lower. Not time to buy yet imo

  8. Goild

    Dday

    Thanks, yes it can go down there to $1183, perhaps today.
    How are you doing? Are you still on board?

    1. Dday

      No sold NUGT when gold was around $1214, bought dust but sold yesterday too early…. anyways just watching today

  10. Dday

    Like him or not, agree with him or not, he is implementing his policies and will take him a while to either fuck up or triumph….. That gives the markets a lot of breathing space…

  12. Goild

    Dday,

    Thanks for the TA update,
    I am glad you did well. I like very much your solid approach of playing by the TA book.

  13. Goild

    Dday,

    In your trading do you trade a large portion of your account or you tend to be conservative?
    I ask the question because depending on the % amount one trades sound judgement and interfering emotions are a big issue.

    1. Dday

      Higher the risk, lower the portion. It’s tempting to think “you are on to a sure thing”…thats the emotion, you get it wrong your accounts down 20%. I view leveraged etfs such as dust and nuget as super high risk so low investment for short periods.

      1. Dday

        Oh and this time of day really isn’t a good time to trade, wait till later on, yesterday you were going to buy nugt because the dollar fell…sure enough it bounced back as soon as us opened…..

  14. Dday

    But on the other hand that weekly cant be ignored…..That’s why l’ll stay on sidelines for the next week.

  15. terrywg

    @Pedestrian:

    do you still see spot gold going back up to 1210? Am thinking that it’s gonna be rangebound up to the release of GDP numbers tmr, perfect for a couple of ST trades.

    1. Pedestrian

      Just sat down at the computer a few minutes ago. Amazing how charts can alter a viewpoint overnight. That 1210 may have been too generous a number in retrospect. I am looking to buy NUGT today if the mood hits me.

  17. Dday

    Heres a daily longer term i have highlighted a similar setup last year, shows that technicals can reverse just when you are waiting for a large downfall. With the weekly looking strong and markets taking off its difficult to say so im staying in cash for now.

    https://invst.ly/358×4

  18. Goild

    I guess I am evolving from a day trader to a swing trader.
    This site has been excellent in helping me getting insight on how to better trade.
    I am appreciative of your comments and of this forum.

  19. brianbreeze

    Hey Alexandru where is that SM scorch you have been calling for months now? Told you that you were full of hot air and nothing more.

  21. Dreamer

    Typical action in gold getting body slammed overnight as PM suppression continues.

    All these talking heads that do interviews said Trump would be friendly and good for PMs and stop the suppression. What a joke these peeps are. Trump said he would like a lower dollar to help trade exports and that could help PM prices higher but then Janet the Felon talks about multiple rate hikes this year.

  22. Gary Post author

    I’m going to go over the characteristics defining a half cycle low from a full daily cycle low in tonight’s report.
    I tend to think this is more likely a half cycle low for gold. It has reached the 38% fib retracement today. As a half cycle low it shouldn’t drop much further.

    1. Robert

      No Gary this is a daily cycle low coming USD is bullish which means more downside for gold. Cannot be a HCL

  23. zkotpen

    LiesandDamnLies,

    Thanks for the update. As you can tell, I’m more inclined to just look at the Spring Festival as the holiday is laid out, but also looking at other alternatives.

    One suggestion, especially for a stats guy: “Your time” “my time” — the market cares not about these. There is no time. As I stated yesterday:

    “Fortunate and devoted timekeeper,
    Take time as an example,
    Practice without any sense of your time or mine.”

    “I was happy practicing with time,
    But a little uneasy about bringing time zones into the practice.
    Please give me instruction on practicing with time zones.”

    “If you are happy practicing with time,
    Time zones are time’s magical creations.
    Be time itself.”

  24. zkotpen

    Dday,

    “Zkotpen, can you spell it out a bit more clearly, where do you think gold is heading, short, medium and long term….Thanks”

    Thanks for your pointed question Dday! I’m gonna keep this one in mind for reference, though I have to say, I sort of arrive at some stuff on my path thru the wilderness — stuff that arises along the way to help me see the light, the best I can. I did mention this yesterday, though maybe I was a little scattered.

    My daily cycle has been pointing toward the 20 day SMA test for at least a couple of weeks in gold & GDX. So I’ve had it pointing down this week in particular.

    Intermediate cycle is pointing up, hence the difficulty in timing short term entries: Daily cycle pointing down, IC pointing up.

    Yearly Cycle is also pointing up.

    For longer term — I’ve got an idea but always look more closely at that on weekends & Mondays.

  25. zkotpen

    Short term, I’ve got the “middle 3rd wave of C” for gold & GDX yesterday at 1193 & 23.19, respectively

  26. Goild

    Reduced my purchase price of the NUGT lot to $9.85
    Got some shares of GLD
    I need to go.
    Good trading to all.

  27. macman1519

    It didnt take long, CNN reported last night that Trumps irrational behaviour is causing many Republicans to doubt his emotional maturity and claim he is delusional. A perfect leader for AMERIKKKA. Buy gold, Humpty Trumpty will soon have his great fall. !!

  28. stockpick

    Until 10 yr. TSY interest rates blow past 3.50…this is normalization of the interest rates…..bullish for banks and bullish for stocks.

  29. macman1519

    Starting it with Mexico, told leader to pay for wall or go home. Great strategy for AMERIKKKA! Watch what happens next. Mexico meekly submits or tells Humpty Trumpty to take a flying fck? This will get more and more uncertain and gold will soar. A madman is in the whitehouse and many Amerikkkans think hes GREAT! The problem with megolomaniacs. They fool the ignorant sheeple, Fox is his propoganda machine. Zieg Trumpf! Buy gold it is going to soar.

    1. RonL

      macman 1519 save your political insults for another proper site. This is an investment site no a place for you to spout your hateful political comments. I assume you supported Hillary. Get over it she lost.

Comments are closed.