It’s starting to look more and more like the intermediate cycle for the precious metals has topped. During the declining phase of an intermediate cycle the RSI (5) tends to stay oversold for long periods of time, as is the case now. We should have a bounce out of a daily cycle low soon but I suspect it will roll over and price will make a lower low.

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  1. realtrader

    Looks like there’s a price war going on between brokerage firms. Schwab and Fidelity both offer $5 per trade. Can anybody using either Schwab or Fidelity comment on the service quality?

    1. Goild

      I use Fidelity and the customer service for Active Trader Pro is excellent.
      My calls get answer right away and the personnel is pleasant and helpful.
      I also get a good deal on trades as I trade much.

  2. TraderPete

    Gary, what about investors that are doing Old Turkey? Should they sell now or just hold on?

      1. SLEP

        This is not a bull market, it’s a bear of a bear market. Therefore, Old Turkeys will be slaughtered. Discretion is the better part of valor.

  3. Vortex

    Most PM investors/traders are way too over zealous and illogical. Just as susceptible to the herding dimension as newbie’s to the markets.

    During this weakness instead of leaving the miners and ETF’s you should be making a wish-list of the top tier explorers and producers and be ready to buy at key points.

    I would even go as far as to say you should already be scaling into the best of the best and building solid strong positions.

    Why in the heck would anyone sell at this point when you know damn good and well that a recovery and advance in the PM is not too far off into future and you will make all of you’re money back and more.

    Just hold tight if you have positions and stop blowing out you’re accounts.

    1. Pedestrian

      Your post makes no sense to me at all Vortex.

      Nobody knows “well and good” that there is anything more than a dead-cat bounce coming so holding tight could just end in much steeper and more painful losses. We are not talking small potatoes here either. The people on this site are using leveraged funds much more frequently than I have seen elsewhere. Not sure why exactly but that’s the crowd.

      In the case of NUGT it is down 40% in just the last 18 trading days which is a brutal draw-down if you have held this long already. Personally I don’t think there is any place for giving false hope at this stage especially as nobody can know for certain just how low prices may still go. In the medium term the outlook is very worrisome though and preservation of capital should be considered above all.

      Bounces should be sold is probably a better bet.

      Holding on long enough in this kind of environment can be ruinous to your metals account and maybe even your health and marriage. And unless your math is bad, 40% damage is even bigger percentage wise than the size of the 300 foot gash that sheared through the hull of the Titanic before it went to its watery grave.

      So yeah, its a big deal. And all the more so if NUGT keeps falling to the point it goes through a reverse split which I happen to think is almost certain now… October 2015 for example saw a 1 for 10 split when price hit 5.40 so this is plausible if not baked in the cake already and while it does not change your cash balance it really does wonders for an already depressed mental state as your shares evaporate just before prices bounce back.

      That’s why you can never recover from losses on these damned things. Let me explain…..

      A thousand shares of NUGT at the recent highs (1000 X 13.48 = 13,480.00) with a 40% loss means you now have about 8,000 dollars @ 8.00 per share but should there be a 1/10 split your total shares would decline to a mere 100 albeit at a higher value.

      The problem however is that should NUGT return to its earlier price following the split your gain would be based on a much smaller number of total shares. So you lost 5.48 a share on the way down based upon 1000 shares ($5,480) but only made back 5.48 per share based on the 100 lot on the way back up ($548) which is a difference of fifty five hundred dollars.

      In other words you just got screwed to the wall. But hey, you are back to the old price so you must be a winner! Unfortunately what you need to be whole at that point is for NUGT to soar in value a factor of 10 before your 100 shares will be equal to the original investment loss. In other words NUGT would have to go from 5.48 a share to 54 and a half to recoup your earlier 40% loss based on the new 100 share split.

      It’s possible of course. But its not likely. And that’s why I disagree with your advice Vortex.

      You had better read THIS before ever thinking that a 3X fund will appreciate given enough time. Take note that by merely holding through the 4 prior share splits of NUGT since its inception in December 2010 would have resulted in a 99.8% loss of your original investment!!!!!!!

      OUCH!!!!! That really hurts baby. Don’t squeeze me like that.


      1. Pedestrian

        Well after rereading that post is sure screwed up. But you probably got my point anyway so I won’t bother correcting all the errors. Man, I wasn’t even drinking when I wrote it either. LOL!!!

        1. vin

          Are you a new comer?

          We were told that jnug and nugt will go above $500 and may be $1000 one day!

          And, we are waiting.

          1. Gary Post author

            Almost none of you would ever be able to hang on long enough to reap the rewards. There will be too many huge drawdowns along the way. Almost everyone here is the classic retail trader with a very short term outlook.

            In order to hold to JNUG $500 you would have to trade like Warren Buffett. I think it’s safe to say no one here is capable of that kind of focus.

            We’re talking at least 4-5 years before JNUG is likely to reach those prices. That won’t come until the bubble top. We have a lot of churning and corrections along the way before we get to that stage.

  4. mark miller

    JNUG buyers at $23 should sell when the RSI hits 70? At this point, the decay is wiping them out. May not have hopes of breaking even … may have to day trade only. Buy and hold is not working.

    1. Gary Post author

      They should have sold those when gold lost 1275. We then entered lower and made back all the losses from that mistimed entry.

      It is possible to make back losses in this business 🙂

    2. vin

      3X are NOT meant to buy and hold. They are veeeeeery few opportunities when one can make money holding.

      In my view tmv is such an opportunity now.

  5. stockpick

    So Gary,
    What happened to your black swan prediction of bonds imploding?!?!?!

    Looks like the bonds are behaving just fine…..but you are changing your tune .

    1. Gary Post author

      Be patient. We have a multiweek bear flag playing out. That’s not a good sign coming out of a yearly cycle low. Price should rally strongly out of yearly cycle lows unless something is seriously wrong.

      If the break out of the bear flag is violent then it’s game on.

  6. Pedestrian

    So it looks like silver has broken its support on the lower channel. I should have noticed this yesterday actually but I was focused on the short term silver chart alone. Today however I was checking SLV and sure enough its a technical break-down that also failed a few cents shy of backtesting up to the 200 day SMA which is now resistance. Expectations should now be for further moves to the downside and any bounces sold as the bear is probably back.

  7. Goild

    Good morning,

    This drop is about in depth as the drop after election day.
    And it can get deeper.
    Let the safe fully fall, break, and let us pick up the treasures once they spread out around.

    Wise and good trading to all.

  8. Pedestrian

    Just a quick heads up everyone. If silver is about to fall right here the drop could be hard and fast. If you examine a daily chart the last few times silver hit a pothole the corrective decline was nearly vertical and finished in a few days. Without getting into unnecessary detail just look at the chart for yourself and be prepared or you may end up with a case of stomach churning vertigo and traders ulcers.

    Its rip the band-aid off time.

      1. Pedestrian

        Nice work Gary. That’s two well times calls in the past few weeks. I am very wary of trying to buy the bounce here. Just too risky with this kind of action.

        1. Gary Post author

          I don’t anticipate trying to pick a bottom for at least 4-6 weeks. There are several things I look for before trying to call an ICL. None of them are present at this time.

          1. Gary Post author

            There will be one at some point, but gold hasn’t even retraced to the 38% Fib yet ($1211).

  9. eurodisney

    Hi Ped,

    Can you explain the share split please. for example if I hold 10 shares at a price of 5.40 and then a split happens, ok I have one share but surely the price of that share is $54, if it remained at $5.40 the company has taken 90% of your money ? Is that correct

    1. Pedestrian

      I totally screwed up that post. Try to forgive me. I must have been having one of those senile moments my friends warned me were coming. But yes, your reverse share split will result in fewer shares but at a higher price. Check the link I left for a better analysis of the share split repercussions and especially look at the chart appended.

  10. jmg3447

    Just curious; during a retracement like we have now with the minors, do you place any relevance to gaps being filled when the gold stocks initially started their intermediate bull markets, i.e. January 2016 and December 2016?
    Thank you

  11. Don

    Ped: Your DSLV position must be getting close to the break even point. That may be your chance to cover as I don’t see much more in the way of downside for silver. At best, it might drop into the 16.80 to 17.00 range.

    1. Pedestrian

      Nope, I will be holding for awhile I think. There is a lot of upside in that trade by my estimate. Like I keep saying; no worries with this one and so far I am proven correct. Hell, it could breakeven today so I am pleased I never sold at a loss.

  12. Don

    One big headwind for the PMs has been the strength of the US dollar. Almost no one was expecting that to happen. That said, I doubt that to many will believe that the PMs begin to go up with a rising dollar, as has happened in the past.

  13. Adrian

    And seasonally march is the worst month for gold, but i will buy this dip/correction because the Put Cal Open Interest hits 0, waiting for my stochastic versión be in oversold, not yet there

    1. Vortex


      You’re going to turn out to be one smart cookie. Adding to positions in this down draft will turn out to be one of the most profitable events you will ever be involved in. Just be smart.

      Most all of this day to day crap and freaking out over every inane chart move is beyond moronic and basically just noise. And most of the know-it-all people telling everyone here the chart is their god is just in this for huge ego concerns and attention. No one is here to save your or my ass in this discombobulated market even thought they try to act like they care…………please!

      If you already have positions in unleveraged miners do not sell. If those folks that have over leveraged themselves with 3X ETF’s blow out their account too ******* bad. They made a poor choice.

      Stay the course and don’t sell you’re positions. They will recoup any temporary unrealized losses in due time and make a bundle of cash on the up side when the trend returns in our favor.

      1. Pedestrian

        Thanks Vortex. That’s a perfect example of what I keep warning people about.

        Your post is 100% content-free commentary with a little emotional spin and the usual sales gimmicks thrown in for good measure. It is an agenda not a case and it’s exactly the kind of nonsense everyone here needs to watch out for and avoid when reading gold sites. Just false bravado and unsubstantiated claims backed by promises that cannot be kept or other pie-in-the-sky claims.

        You see people, Vortex wants you to stay invested in a falling market in spite of what losses you are taking. He doesn’t give a shit if you are underwater and drowning. Instead he regales you with ideas of untold riches if you just hold on and add more to positions.

        Based on what exactly?

        Well nothing at all. He offers not a shred of evidence nor technical consideration to change your mind. Just the typical rah-rah blather common among the fools who promote gold purchases to keep the unwary and inexperienced invested. He appeals to your greed rather than your rational mind.

        And guys like Vortex can be ruinous to your account if you give them your time. Think before acting on this guys advice. Gold and silver are in clear down-trends. Until they actually stop falling or give an obvious buy signal you should not consider adding to any positions unless you are just a gambler.

        The technical case is not rosy at this time. This morning gold has broken lower again after 18 hours of sideways consolidation. It is off 50 dollars in a week and silver is down a dollar in just a few days. Both were overdue for corrections and that in itself is a concern suggesting a longer than usual decline may be in the cards.

        Being oversold is no guarantee prices cannot get more oversold either. I don’t often see surprise reversals with gold either. Even when the time does come to buy there are often more than a few good chances to buy near rally bottoms. So let this run its course and be patient.

        The time will come when the price is ready. Until then step aside and just watch.

  14. Don

    Ped, no one really had a good explanation as to why silver was going up and now it seems everyone is in agreement that it should be going down and it’s time to ‘wait’. That is the perfect set up for a surprise move up, when the few are in a position to profit.

    1. Pedestrian

      If you look at positioning on the silver COTs you will see that speculative long interest is at an all time historical high so I guess I will beg to differ with you. “Everyone” is not in agreement that silver is heading down according to the contracts in play.

      Have a look at this chart and note the bottom section where it shows COT’s.

      Notice how extreme they are in the past 23 years of records. This is only going to be resolved one way and that is with an imminent and brutal face-smashing bloodbath of the Spec positions. So get out of the way quick because I think the moment of truth has arrived.


  15. Pedestrian

    On the hourly chart the Nikkei is forming a rounded bottom and will begin to rise today and tomorrow. As that happens the Yen will fall as is typical during Nikkei run-ups. And what that means to you as a gold investor is that gold is about to catch a cold and get a nasty migraine headache since falling Yen equals falling gold. This all makes perfect sense really since silver dives like we are seeing today often precede gold also going over the edge.

    So be careful out there people. Things just turned ugly in the metal sector. Even Dr Copper looks sick all of a sudden.

    1. dboz

      Last weeks COT report shows an all time short position comparable to last summer before the swan dive in silver.

    1. Pedestrian

      You won’t regret that decision. It is the first or second chart I check every morning. What happens there bleeds into every other segment of the global market. I have no idea why and have not been able to figure it out but the Algo’s are programmed to take heir cues from Japanese equity markets and the Yen. Everything else including US bond markets correlate from there. If anybody here knows why then step up to the plate with an explanation since I would love to hear it.

      1. dboz

        Ped, if you look at charts of the crash etc you can see the Japanese markets foreshadow what will happen to US markets. There is a delay of weeks to months but if they go down, we will eventually go down, vice versa.

    1. Gary Post author

      I would be leery about trying to pick the DCL ahead of the FOMC meeting.

      This is what we see during ICL declines. Hordes of people trying to call the bottom on the way down. It usually doesn’t stop until all the bottom calls fade away and the bears start predicting unrealistic targets.

      No disrespect meant, but the last bottom occurred at about the same time Ped started calling for $800 gold.

      There are several things I look for to spot ICL bottoms. I’ve gone over them in the nightly newsletter.

  16. MattyMan

    UVXY experiment over… never again!
    100% cash – probably no trades for me until I get set-ups on XLE and GDX – or if SM does ever correct so I can get long under oversold conditions…

  17. shiva1968

    For the next month or two their is likely money to be made on the short side. Why just play the long side?

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t usually try to short. Markets go down differently than they go up. I find it much much harder to make money on the short side, so I just don’t bother most of the time.

      Besides there is almost always another market somewhere else that’s going up. So there’s usually no need to fight with the short side of the market.

  18. MattyMan

    Potential outside day in XLE underway… Oil reversed after this morning’s gains… Is oil finally going to drop meaningfully!!?

  19. MattyMan

    GLD possible support at 100 day, 100 week and 38.2% Fib…
    GDXJ at 61.8% Fib and 200 week…
    Considering it, for at least a bounce, but not yet…

  20. KHT

    I`ve had a decent in and out JDST ride down and took a 2k position in JNUG about an hour before the close today. I think JNUG found enough support at 5.45 to give a DC bounce. A LOT of bears wandering around right now. I`ll be watching the 7.8 area. Yes, I know the FOMC on on this week.

    1. Pedestrian

      Just read it on the wire and Direxions Funds are indeed going to reverse split a number of leveraged funds very soon. NUGT, JNUG and JDST will all get 1 for 4 splits reducing the number of shares outstanding by 75% and SOXS will be split 1 for 5 reducing shares by 80%.

      Effective date of split will be May 1st this year…..so in about 7 weeks time.

  21. bluelagoon

    Ped – thanks for your tip on using the Nikkei as a barometer. I reviewed the daily chart and it actually looks to me like it’s coming down which means gold should be heading up right?

    1. Pedestrian

      Yes, the Nikkei is falling on the hourly but rough charting tells me that’s a bull flag in the making. As current conditions prevail, sometime in the next few hours the Nikkei will most likely break up and Yen will almost immediately start to fall sealing the fate of gold is it goes.

      That is assuming I am reading the charts right of course.

      Whatever happens, we are literally no more than 3 or 4 hours away from a decision so we will know before bedtime tonight which way the wind blows before market open tomorrow. As gold is already in a decline I suspect that the trend will continue and by late day we could see 1200 dollar gold in sight once more.

      The idea of a rising Nikkei is reinforced by a pattern that is easily visible on the daily chart.

      If you note the period from December until now there is a rounding bottom in play that implies an upward bias is in progress right now. I happen to believe that before Yellen’s address next Wednesday (March 15th) that the Nikkei will hit 20,000 and a stock market correction will then unfold. It could be because of her speech or it could be pure coincidence. I really don’t know except it looks inevitable and strangely timed.

      And between now and then precious metals will continue in a downtrend (which as an aside, suggests they bounce back next Wednesday as stocks fall).

      Check the Nikkei on a weekly chart (linked) and you will clearly see that there is a prior high at just about the 20,000 mark that was established back in late 2015. That is major stopping resistance and warns that global equities could stall there (most developed nation equity markets move in tandem so if the Nikkei fails at 20,000 we might presume all of them will).

      There is not a single equity index of significance anywhere in the world that offers us this particular insight into where markets might turn. The only other close contender is the Eurostoxx50 and by coincidence it too is less than 200 points away from topside resistance.

      I advise everyone here to keep a close eye on both in the coming week. This preposterous sounding idea is either pure unadulterated brilliance on my part or its the rantings of a madman but if I turn out to be correct everyone here owes me a fantasy Burrito of my choice (and no I won’t be collecting since I am anonymous anyway!)

      So you can all relax. Unless you are holding 3X levered ETF’s like NUGT and JNUG.

      In which case you should all start sweating now.

  22. bluelagoon

    My weekly analysis on GDXJ points to JNUG correcting here (dead cat bounce) to maybe +$7 and then heading back down again. So far so good with my call on JNUG low this am and ending green today. I welcome any other analysis.

  23. Barry

    As is right now, the 10 year T-Note is at $123.38. Looks to me like panic will set in below $123 and that’s not far away.

    What is the best play should the bond bubble pop?

  24. Don

    The weekly gold and silver charts certainly do appear to be set up for a bigger slide but I see as being too obvious. These types of chart setups do not always pan out as expected and I think this will be one of those times. As for the COT reports, the speculators sometimes get it right for many months at a stretch. It is worth noting that the gold speculators are not excessively bullish. Ped, although I applaud your confidence, I think you will be proven wrong, this time.

    1. Pedestrian


      Wait, wait….let me check that on my metals-sniffer-meter.

      Sorry, still working.

      Only 12 more dollars and we are back at 1200 gold.

  25. Ed

    Bonds down, Stocks down, Gold down, So what is up?
    But not by much. They are all holding down for some fireworks on Friday and FOMC day.
    I guess not everything is priced in. Only sure thing I know about trading is greatest profit always favor the positions that smallest number of people have taken.

  26. Ed

    If Bitcoin ET F are allowed by SEC, are they going take money away from Gold, bonds, and stock markets? That’s gotta be a bad news right?

  27. Ed

    I happened drive through upper middle class neighborhoods over the weekends, I saw so many open house signs that I do not see anywhere else?
    It appears that all these rich people 2nd home investments properties on for sale. Do you see same thing in your areas?

  28. zkotpen


    I can definitely see the value in tracking JPYUSD, instead of the normal USDJPY

    Makes a lot of visual sense — thanks!

  29. chrisG

    OMG. Many of you guys are totally hopeless at not knowing why silver dropped so much. COT is bearish as ped has pointed. But from chart… http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p72124349701&a=511297199&listNum=5

    I wanted to post this chart previously when i warned in end feb that silver and PM were dangerous. But i was lazy, and I thought just verbally warning could be good enough. But so many days later, many still cant see from chart why the weakness. Some even said silver was manipulated to have that plunge few days ago. I repeat, silver wasnt manipulated downwards. It was manipulated to hold strong for days before this smack down. PMs, Gold was already weak. Dollar was already strong. Silver should have dropped more orderly. But silver never do so. Silver has the character to plunging to catch down, or melt up to catch up. Nature of silver.

  30. Goild

    Good morning,

    The 10y yield is walking its way to 2.6 to then breakout on FOMC day.
    This means that in the immediate future gold is continuing trending down.
    After such punishment the miners are becoming resilient.
    Wise and good trading to all.

    1. Vortex

      All this weakness is going to do in the medium-term is provide smart PM buyers superb entry points to establish positions and ride those positions to short trading profits or longer-term mega-profits.

      All of the rest of the noise is just that………noise.

      Deeply oversold top tier explorers and producers are strong buys when they reach those oversold levels. Stop trying to make this complicated and don’t allow other people to make it complicated for you.

      1. Pedestrian

        In principle that may be true Vortex but it sure as hell isn’t tradeable information. Even the greenest of novices are already familiar with the expression to buy low and sell high. But do you know where the bottom is so that you can ride back up to fabulous mega-profits as you suggest? And what exactly is the superb entry point you refer too? Got a number there?

        How smart is it to buy when we are still declining?

        So I am calling you out on writing more gold-bug blather. Likely you have not even noticed the daily chart pattern. We are on the declining side of a dome shape and the precise bottom is by no means clear. There is absolutely no guarantee we won’t drop all the way back to 1100 dollars so why you are pushing people to buy now is beyond me.

        I think I know where the noise is coming from. Its why I am tuning you out.

  31. Goild

    It appears that channeling for gold around $1200 will continue to prevail.
    Probably at leas till December 2017.
    A conflict with North Korea may make gold to break the channel.

  32. Goild

    I guess the FED runs a smooth show, and the big pockets are selling gold uniformly as shown by the linear dropping of gold. The trend likely will continue till FOMC day when it will likely have a further and sudden drop.
    There are 5 days to FOMC and in the last five days gold has fallen about $30 so that an estimate to FOMC day would be about $30 more down to gold at $1180. I do not know if this will include the final sudden drop.
    We shall see.

  33. Gary Post author

    Bonds looking like they may be ready for the second leg down. If it unfolds as a dislocation then it’s game on.

  34. brianbreeze

    Gary, just a comment on your crude oil commentary a few days ago. I just cannot see it falling to $40 like you think it can. I do not think there are macro variable out there that would press oil so low. Just my guess.
    I would be surprised to see crude under 50 let alone all the way down to 40.

    1. Gary Post author

      There are signals that trigger at intermediate lows. None of them have given a buy signal yet.

      You’re probably about 4-6 weeks too early.

      1. Robert

        Surely a dead cat bounce DCL soon here in metals. Cant just keep goin down straight for another 4-6 week.s. Right here is good to buy metals for a quick trade dead cat bounce

    2. Pedestrian

      Don, metals prices are still falling across the board. Don’t you think its a little premature to start buying? Support lines are being broken everywhere. Channels are being violated while Fibs and moving averages are still giving way. I would stay cautious a little longer. try not to be impatient and hurried. The bottom will be obvious when it arrives. You have not missed a thing yet.

      1. dboz

        50 MA is holding but looks likely to break. If silver goes below 17.10-20, look out below. Miners seem relatively calm but I would imagine once those supports break the selling could ramp again? This is worse than the 2016 draw down, at least that took several months. This is a ski slope collapse.

  35. Ed

    Time to short stocks. 2.5% move today on 10 yr yields only get higher. All the stars lining up for a spectacular celestial bang. All debt ceiling fronts are quiet. Markets are only cherry picking the news they want to hear until bond rating service start downgrade US.

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s probably still too early to short. The PPT will keep the market propped up into the FOMC meeting next week.

      Wait for the T-1 pattern to complete. That would be 2440-50 on the SPX.

  36. Don

    I am buying only non-leveraged assets so i am not terribly concerned if the metals drop further. I suspect that the snap back will be an event driven explosion upward that will leave most unprepared and scrambling to get back in.

  37. Don

    The stock market is not behaving well and I think a big drop is coming. I am ready for that also.

  38. Ed

    Oh no. We are not going to downgraded. I forgot all rating agencies are owned by Wall street. They only downgrade China,Russia. We are about to go untested territory of land of no returns but nobody gives jack. Our debts going over the threshold line of GDP. 100% now. Once we get used to it may be we go 200% 300% GDP. I am so stunned nobody is talking about it. I guess they are going to quietly suspend debt ceiling until next election.

    In that case, don’t short Stocks. Buy TB T But I have warn you bond markets are very boring.

  39. chrisG

    Put AG on your watchlist. Now 7.6. Likely going to $5 ish by May. Gdx likely $16 ish then. That should be a good spot to buy.

  40. Goild


    I wish you well.
    Though there is no question that with the rate hike gold will suffer more and likely silver.
    I am learning prudence here.
    Patience, patience, patience.

  41. chrisG

    HL clear HS breakdown. Now $4.8, $3.50 here we come. A cool 28% drop. So…. Why stress yourself up looking at the PM sector now?

  42. Goild

    Silver is going down linearly and so expect gold to follow, unless silver plays the break step move.
    Though is getting late in the day for a step break.

  43. Emptyness

    Funny Blog – only 3 weeks before nearly everybody here (except Ped) was very bullish for PM / gold. Gary expected a rally for weeks (months). Then the great FED proclaimed higher rates, which almost always seems to be the start shot for speculators to sell paper gold – and the PM rally was over. Now nearly everybody here (especially Ped and Gary = new friends !) is very bearish for PM / gold. Certainly we get 2 blood bath months for gold. The new conviction is: Gold below 1000 !
    I know one thing: Gold and especially the miners are able to rise as fast as they went down. The next weeks will be very exciting: FED rate hike, us debt upper limit reached, elections in france and netherlands, Trump playing politics and so on. I don’t see any reason to be bearish gold.

    1. Pedestrian

      Foreign elections, presidential antics and fiscal debt do not move gold directly. Secondly, gold moves directionally with bonds and has done so for the past year which is another way of saying it falls as rates rise. So if you bet on gold according to what you just wrote you are going to probably buy at the wrong time.

      1. Emptyness

        1) Yes, they don’t move gold directly – but indirectly !
        2) No, look at the 1970er years: Rising rates and strongly rising gold !
        Only if we get rising rates without higher inflation you are right.
        P.S.: I’m not a trader, I know that I have to wait maybe several years, but I also know that we will get new alltime highs in gold during the next 10 years. That’s okay for me.

  44. Don

    There is an extreme power struggle going on in the US between multiple factions and it is not going to ‘settle down’ anytime soon, if at all. The calmness in the markets is a bit surreal considering the high probability that something nasty could unfold at any moment.

  45. ocram

    do you think it’s too late to sell miners now?
    I’m an old turkey type of guy but I fear the next down move will be huge!

    1. Gary Post author

      If you’really afraid of a big down draft wouldn’t now be just in the nick of time?

      1. ocram

        You’re right Gary,the problem is that I know that if this down draft will not be so huge I’m not so quick to re-enter the market,this is why I’m adopting the old turkey method….but it’s painful and it’s not nice to live with such emotions .
        Thank you anyway for answering.

  46. Goild

    I guess there is nothing to stop the fall of gold and silver till FOMC.

    I learned that I cannot stomach a large number of shares in JNUG.
    Whenever I have too many shares I become dumb and lose.
    If I trade small lots and make money,

    Good trading to all.

  47. Gary Post author

    I think the easiest way to hold old turkey is with a bunch of physical silver bars.

    Otherwise I covered in the Morning Report how to view stopping out late. as long as you wait and get in at the intermediate cycle bottom you can still easily recover losses unless you just keep riding them down.

    I think one should do stops in the context of whether or not you think you can get in lower. If you think you can re-enter at a lower price then you should always stop out and conserve your cash. then try and reenter at a lower level.

    Since this appears to be an intermediate decline I would say that you are probably going to get a much lower entry sometime in the next four to seven weeks.

  48. Goild

    The density of gold is about 19.32 g/cm3 gravity is currently pulling it down strongly.
    The earth wants it back.

  49. Pedestrian

    We are on day 5 now of the declines for gold and silver so its getting a little long in the tooth. There is probably a relief rally coming tomorrow although that’s never a guarantee on day six. But the longer the fall continues the more likely a bounce becomes, however brief it might be.

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