74 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY – MINERS INTERMEDIATE CYCLE TOP?

  1. Christian

    I’ll copy/paste on this new thread since I think it’s important for those of us on the Short side πŸ™‚

    Well done! In the meantime, others are losing out by trying to pick a bottom. I’ll never understand people that like to get in front of a moving train.

    Question: Are you worried that the French elections could propel Gold like it did during the US elections? That could throw a wrench in our DUST trade.

    1. Gary Post author

      Making money on the short side is hard. The counter trend rallies often knock one out at tops.

      Yes I will try to take profits at the DCL and then get on the sidelines for the bounce out of the DCL.

      1. zbigkid

        “By the sweat of your brow you will eat your food until you return to the ground, since from it you were taken; for DUST you are and to DUST you will return.”

        Translation: You are going to lose a whole lot of hard earned money by being in DUST, and to dust your subscriber’s portfolios shall return.

        PED probably has it nailed this time. Sorry to say.

  2. SLEP

    We just got a buy signal. Gary is shorting gold and silver, so now is the time to back up the truck and load up on gold and silver. Just listen to Ped, he is on the right side of gold this time.

    1. Gary Post author

      I sold short at the top on Monday, not today.

      We’ve already added about 14% to the metal portfolio.

      Yes there is likely to be a bounce tomorrow or Friday. But gold needs to drop far enough to at least turn the 10 DMA down before the DCL will be complete.

      The only trade that hasn’t worked out is energy. We had about as good of a setup as one could ask for. An intermediate trend line break, a weekly swing and oversold on the weekly charts. It just didn’t pan out. I’ll try again later.

      I’m still waiting on the sidelines in the stock portfolio. I’m only holding my core UPRO position which I won’t sell until I think the bubble is ready to pop. 70% is still in cash waiting.

        1. Gary Post author

          The stock portfolio is separate from the metals portfolio.

          It’s up to each sub as to which portfolios they want to follow or if they want to follow all three.

    2. Pedestrian

      I might be Slep.

      Check out this HUI chart for a different viewpoint. It is very similar to the JNUG chart I bought today with the same three major features and I could have kicked myself with joy when I came across it moments ago as it reinforced my view that we may have something of significant on our hands. Those chart features are:

      1) A wedge formation that has lasted more than 6 months.
      2) A break-out above the upper falling channel line of that wedge pattern.
      3) A back-test of the channel where price holds above the line at the close and….
      4) The HUI has one added feature in that it has stopped-out right on top of the 50 DMA

      So I continue to think that miners are about to go higher and today’s nasty sell-off may be just a prelude to a surprise move upwards. We will not know for certain naturally until tomorrow when that back-test makes its next move but right now it looks very good to my eyes.

      Check out the chart. It is well worth your time. (and yes, it is technical).

      HUI Chart courtesy of Fullgoldcrown over at Goldtent TA Paradise
      https://goldtadise.com/?p=400850

        1. Pedestrian

          Sure thing. The technical break I see is just a prelude for the future though. Not necessarily a great place to start buying now. It just tells us that that the nature of the chart has been altered and the new trend will likely favour the bulls.

          Keep in mind I am a very short term trader so no buy and hold for me and I reserve the right to change positions at the drop of a hat.

          Like as soon as tomorrow for example.

          What I am saying is that the HUI and JNUG charts could be telling us something important about the future for mining stock but don’t get complacent about them now because gold is getting in the toppy region and will eventually turn prices back down at least on a corrective basis.

          Look at the technical picture on GLD for some extra reinforcement. To me it has some room to run on the upside but it is also overbought on the RSI with a possible double top on Stochastics and the CCI may be ready to start down soon.

          GLD could also stay aloft longer than most expect but it still won’t last forever. So take care Boss. Unless you are prepared to weather the next downdraft it might be better to hold off buying for just a bit longer in my opinion.

          http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/gld/interactive-chart

  3. pk

    Great call Gary. You’ve done a really job navigating the turns. I always appreciate your ability to use multiple market tools.

    I don’t know how you deal with the trolls on your site. I saw one of your commentors say that they made 19 profitable trades in a row… which is a comical statement. And then you have poor shmucks hanging on to their every word. I guess learning that no one can predict every move is a lesson that everyone learns with their own $ at some point of their trading lives.

    1. Pedestrian

      Actually its 20 trades in a row now (assuming I sell this current one profitably tomorrow). And they are all documented on the site so you can look them up if you care to bother. I don’t get it. Why would that bother anyone? And why would they criticize so much when its so easy to verify as a fact?

      Are all you people losers or something?

  4. Christian

    I gotta say.. Some of you really baffle me :/ You all proclaim to know what you’re doing but you can’t even pick up on a classic ‘low risk’ inverse H&S set up in DUST — 15 min Chart provided below free of charge. Gold is running on fumes.. Miners continue to lag and are now falling apart.. We have an upsurge in volume in DUST/JDST which as Gary pointed out is a tell sign.. and you all decide to go long on the next dip???

    What the F* is wrong with you people?! Lol. This is the easiest trade ever!

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/QG8FGCqX/

    Goild: This is the type of trading you should be doing! This is where the real money is.. not that ‘Las Vegas Slot Machine’ nonsense you’ve got going on!

    1. primetime

      Why does everyone here have to be day traders, 1/2 day traders, hour traders and some even minute or second traders. What is wrong with taking long positions? But the amazing thing is all you short termers never have a losing trade or lose money. You are all the best market timers in the business…all on this one SMT site. Amazing!

      1. Christian

        Primetime — buddy you’re missing the point. Now is not the time to be taking a Long position in Miners regardless of whether you’re a day-trader or an ‘old turkey’. If you wanna go Long Miners by all means knock yourself out but at least wait for a DCL, keep an eye on Sentiment and wait for the tide to change.. that should get you in closer to the bottom.

        Just like riding a wave.. It’s all about time and place; this is not it!

        1. Christian

          btw.. this is not a ‘who’s got the bigger D*ck’ contest. This is all about showing others that trading whether short term or long term doesn’t always have to be so complicated and that in the end.. certain basic fundamental rules actually work in your favour if your paying attention πŸ™‚

          Are you always gonna win?! F*ck no! But when you do.. it makes all the difference in the world!

          I hope this helps clarify.

        2. primetime

          I have been accumulating shares and took positions many months ago and will gladly wait for a large return…adding as the journey goes. My ego and risk tolerance does not require a perfectly timed buy at the bottom for a successful trade over time. I dabble in other areas and as stated continue to maintain powder on the sidelines. Gary has stated many times, if you miss the initial moves, you miss the big returns. I will gladly wait for the Bull to run. Overconfidence by many in their charts are evident.

          Sentiment in the miners is at the bottom, and many of them are good companies that will have good earnings, while decreasing debt. Now is a great oppotunity to add shares.

          1. Pedestrian

            Correct. Butt my follow up comment got instantly deleted.

            There must be a new Sheriff in town.

  5. Gary Post author

    Short term sentiment is close to bearish enough to trigger a bounce in miners. But I think the DCL still lies ahead. Maybe around the FOMC meeting.

    Energy stocks are the real sentiment extreme at the moment.

      1. Gary Post author

        I still maintain that JNUG will be $500 or higher (split adjusted) by the time gold finishes its bubble phase. But it’s not going to be easy to hang on all the way to the finish. There will be multiple huge drawdowns along the way.

  6. dboz

    Well I bought back into JNUG lower now than where I sold in January so I guess I get the chance to try again. At some point don’t we have to hang onto some gains in order to go up in price? Beat down and pullbacks of horrific magnitude over and over with no sustained build in price.

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s because the metals are stuck in a basing pattern. The reversal on election night knocked gold sharply back below the 200 DMA. That took the fire out of the metals and started what I think will be at least a 6 month to year long basing period.

      These are frustrating and hard to trade.

        1. Don

          Basing? It has been making a series of higher highs and lows since it bottomed in December and has been going up strongly. That is not a ‘basing’ pattern.

  7. isavage

    As we all have been saying for weeks Metals and Miners are in a difficult consolidation. Most likely the TPTB and their CrimeX flunkies will take us down now we test critical point.

    Saying that one-day there will be a shocking change of game play. Debt ceiling and levels of US debt being able to be serviced by any credibility should be my best guess. Remember the Fed have painted themselves in to a corner.
    (Int rates can’t go up as they is no way to pay & if they don’t move away from “extraordinary monetary policy” Fed lose credibility = lose/lose so monetary Reset is going to happen)

    The last days of April will be highly volatile so I’m long and short until we have a clear direction.

    Added more JNUG and sold JDST at the afternoon extremes today. Still hold underwater JNUG positions and will cover with JDST if we slip down tomorrow.
    Added more individual miner’s that hit my targets today. Also have major short of UVXY I have been averaging in to since the bottom. Again any more down side in the Indexes and will cover (not sell)

    Gary I agree basically with your interpretation. But I sure don’t want to be on the wrong side if that game changing day hits possibly as soon as next week! There will be a rip that will make 2016 look like a warm up. πŸ™‚

  8. Ed

    Don’t listen to Gary or Ped! They are just full of themselves.
    And Don’t ever play with leverage stuffs. Just play with Major GDX.
    No NUGT, DUST GDXJ, JNUG, GLD. They are all trash. Just stick with good major miners like GDX, SLW, SSRI, AEM, NEM.

    1. Dday

      NUGT, DUST GDXJ, JNUG, GLD are Useful short term trading tools, learn how to read charts and use accordingly. If you can’t trade agreed avoid. Each to there own……

  9. Alexandru Popovici

    Gold buying opportunity round the corner of this week into the next.
    As expected:
    – gold/ miners/ Treasuries are declining to their DCLs,
    – people are seeing this fall as the beginning of the IC decline instead of a buying opportunity round the corner.

  10. Don

    I don’t think we are going to get much of a correction in the metals although the miners might shave off a bit more. I doubt either will be taking out the December lows.

  11. Ralph Wiederzane

    I’m still very neutral on gold and miners in the short term, while everybody here will be right according to them. On the one hand the small pull back should continue as technicals are not yet oversold, on the other, there is no way i hell I would be short gold with it hanging above the 200 day MA after a series of high highs and higher lows (uptrend) since December, to me that is asking for trouble. So not buying heavy yet, and definitely not trying to pick up pennies in front of a bull steamroller.

    I recall Gary saying in the middle of the 2016 “Baby Bull” that the next big opportunity to buy will be when nobody wants to be long, everybody thinks the bull is dead again and won’t buy miners, and this sentiment could take up to a year to materialize. Well here we are almost 9 months later and after a 44% correction in GDX (creeping higher it’s now only a 27% correction from the 2016 highs), and people including Gary are actually SHORT when they never short a bull! This qualifies as upside down, irrational thinking that we were to watch for to signal once again it was time to be long and heavy miners!

    This has nothing to do with short term timing, I have no interest in that other than I try to get the best entries like anybody else, it’s just not that my trades are dependent on exact entries. I am nibbling and continuing to look for short term oversold technicals to buy into at this point, this pull back is as good as any to get positioned for the next stage of the bull, the longer, slower, stair step action that we have already seen since December, and could continue for 12-24 months into the future, leaving so many behind as they are trying to trade the old pattern of sharp moves in each direction, never quite getting that perfect entry, thus assuming if it’s not a long it MUST be a short, which I do not agree with. I don’t expect the next 12-24 months to tade anything like 2016 but the returns will be fantastic if they are half what the Baby Bull did, and if we realize and expect HUI to trade differently, it could be much easier hold than the straight up rocket ride. I suspect it will bore a lot of people out, however, as they continue to look for and expect 2016 all over again.

    Place your bets!

    1. Dday

      You have pretty much summed up what Gary has been saying. Avoid the gold market as it wont go anywhere for the remainder of the year….Interesting that silver is hanging right on the 200mda, interesting if it breaks. Also on silver weekly silver 200ma crossed through 50ma a few weeks back not all that bullish..

        1. Ralph Wiederzane

          No problem, I agree it’s more bullish than not, but not enough to make me a big buyer. I was buying in December, and slightly nibbling here and there whenever we got oversold technicals on the daily charts. Bigger buys planned for when we are oversold on the weekly charts (and monthly is best but not likely again until after the 12-24 months period I referred to above as they have come out of oversold already).

          I am not sure how you think Gary and I agree, being I think 9 months and a 44% pullback is enough to get me to start buying again, near the same time he is shorting. Seems the only agreement is this pullback from the Aug 2016 highs could last a year, and in that case I might be a few months early, but I also don’t think it has to last an entire year, and I do think the 44% correction will be the bottom and not get re-tested unless we get a 2008 style crash. Of course, I now have the benefit of hindsight with the higher highs and higher lows since this past December.

          Keep in mind too that it was December 2015 that started the Baby Bull, then the next big low was December 2016 after the 44% bashing when everybody was still buying, that was an entire year from start to start, so we might well have already seen the next best buy opportunity in the metals bull this last December. Time will tell, but with people looking to short that never short and advise against it, seems to me this has the makings of bulls doubting the move and not positioned correctly, the very makings of a bull.

  12. Pedestrian

    Today Martin Armstrong has confirmed one of Gary’s longstanding assertions that Fed QE and other Central Bank debt monetization programs are going to all be coming out as asset inflation. In this short article below he explains why asset inflation, which is already at extremes is actually going to get a whole lot worse as yields rise, government demand for money crowds out the private sector, lending tightens and assets like gold soar in value.

    Martin asserts there will not be the traditional demand inflation at all as there is no demand but rather the ending of the QE programs and selling of Federal Reserve balance sheet assets will result in a diminishing amount of lending (and possible dollar shortage) leading to an even steeper rise in real asset which presumably will also include real estate.

    You will have to read it for yourself and try to sort through Martin’s difficult writing style. The rationalization he offer supports his previous assertions that gold will rise in value as confidence in the system falters.

    As an aside, I have just identified an astonishingly insightful technical pattern that may just be the most important I have come across in my past decades of watching gold and I believe I can now say with some certainty when the final bottom in gold will have arrived. I won’t be telling anyone here though as this too is a proprietary trading tool that will be added to my personal arsenal of indicators. All such tools have value. But only when they are not publicly disclosed. Sorry to tell you that folks. I will however say we are not there yet so don’t bother getting all bull-tard as the pattern has not yet arrived at its natural conclusion.

    Armstrong says that we are going to see even MORE asset inflation. It will be traumatic for some.
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/sovereign-debt-crisis/the-end-of-quantitative-easing-perhaps-now-it-will-be-inflationary/

  13. Ralph Wiederzane

    When Gary and SMT finally do want to get long and heavy in miners, there will be some serious buying pressure. Not only do they have to cover, they have to get long, a 200% turn and the biggest purchases SMT has ever made. That type of activity is what makes a bull, assuming enough people are doing the same thing.

    i see lots of advisors, as mentioned yesterday, all in agreement we are heading lower. They are either shorting like Gary, or sitting on the sidelines waiting to buy. Lots of people waiting to buy, myself included. I will not be waiting too long for a very deep correction that might not come. This isn’t a call for the next day or two, lets see how I did in 6 months to a year.

    1. Pedestrian

      On the hourly chart gold is forming a triangle pattern that could break out at any moment. These kinds of patterns almost always resolve to the upside (although it is not guaranteed) but bears should nonetheless be wary to take care today as the breakout will likely be sharp when it comes. I suspect gold will make another attempt at its prior highs in the process before falling back once more.
      http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=h1

      1. dboz

        Ped, that is a week long basing pattern? A nice cool down before a rip higher that will shock and surprise as everyone expects a down move. Like Gary says, in a bull markets the surprises come to the upside. We will soon see. I am positioned to go up.

        I was able to place some tight stops, get tripped and rebuy lower this week. I got a little antsy with JNUG after the first 10% drop and bought a little too heavy. I averaged down but still cost myself $1 so far. Anyway, if Gary is correct, that $1 will be chump change on the next up move. So I have pulled all my stops at this point. No sense to get a quick stop run and shoot. I have been seeing those the last week. Quick rapid drops then big bounce backs and you lose ground on the position.

        That is my clue we are about to take off. May be a week or two or three yet, but I don’t need to catch every penny as I am in heavy so if/when it does run, it should get crazy for my returns. I have miners that my DCA is lower now than they were last December. I have many that are nicely green from that point already.

        Until yesterday, My account was right about Flush from my poorly executed Sept and Oct buys. The setups were there, they just did not unfold due to the reason Gary mentions with the election massive take down and subsequent COT unwind. Had I followed Gary out in Feb I would be extremely happy to be buying in at these levels even if further downside is possible. The savings from then to now is still pretty substantial.

        1. Pedestrian

          Yes Boss. The pattern begins from the low price on April 10th which is what I am using to identify the lower channel. The upper channel is much shorter but this still qualifies to make that triangle.

          We will see as it is almost complete and there will be an answer soon.

          If the break is up it is going to offer a good short-term opportunity to take a trade with a bullish bias as I have already done. If it breaks down I am going to have to either cover like a bandit on the run or hedge myself until I get a chance to escape.

          Losing money on a trade is not an option and fortunately there are good strategies to limit, if not eliminate most trade risk so I am going into the day prepared for whatever comes.

          Anyway my post was just a heads up for those who are not tuned in to charting about what pattern I think is in play for the morning. The novices in the group can read about symmetrical triangle patterns at Chartschool if they are interested. These patterns can break in either direction so we can’t be too cocky about knowing for sure until the break actually happens. Most of the time they are continuation patterns though and I think that is what we have here.

          http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:symmetrical_triangle_continuation

      2. tfinavia

        Ped, I am thinking that bullish price action in gold can be seen today with weekly ending on bullish note tomorrow and back down (Dust trade for a day) move on Monday before a cautious stair step to high rise move into FOMC week (May 3rd)

        1. Pedestrian

          Very possible tfinavia. Its a scenario I am also considering. We never really know for certain so its best to just take the trades one day at a time since markets can be so unruly at times. The GLD chart is certainly not screaming “buy me” from a technical outlook however, like you, I think there is still more upside in the trade, even if its only for another week before we take the escalator down.

  14. dboz

    Ralph, my thoughts exactly. EW people are waiting for wave 3, which should be bigger than wave 1. Meaning we will need lots of fuel. So I will retain my thoughts that the massive shorting going on in miners combined with the sideline waiters who will get FOMO and will be left chasing are going to give us that fuel. I just don’t know when. I bought back in a few days too early, especially my JNUG but I am fine to sit and wait. If Gary is correct and all timing mistakes get corrected then last August highs should get broken on the next leg up. That leaves JNUG at over 32. That says to me a possible 400% from here. If we do roll over into some big downdraft, it will signal to me whatever bull we are in has already ended. There are no bulls in miners. Volume is nothing. There is no big money coming in. Weak hands are getting flushed the last two days and still not much volume. I agree, when things turn, I imagine the upside to be quick and large. Pullbacks will be minimal so no real signals or chance to get in. Just buy and chase and cover. Bulls may finally get rewarded.

    1. Ralph Wiederzane

      Even a big downdraft doesn’t take the bull market off the table, in my opinion, depending on what causes it. If we look at the bull start in 2001, miners and gold puked hard in 2008, only to be proven the best buying opportunity since 2001. So if the markets come apart at the seams, I can see metals getting dragged down with the rest of it, but only temporarily. Also, since we all know what to do this time around, it is unlikely to repeat, my thinking is metals don’t get hit as hard, it;s possible this time they go up instead.

      It’s interesting that metals and miners led the market lower back in 2008, they went down before the stock market got smashed. I’m not sure how it would play out this time if we get a similar scenario, and I also am not calling for a market crash anytime soon so my investment in miners is not dependent on that occurring, I just point it out for conversation.

      dboz, I agree with your overall analysis and projected outcome, only that in the very short term I am not comfortable being loaded right now. I am buying lightly, and do have larger orders standing at lower prices in my favorite names, but I don’t go heavy unless into panic. If the panic dosen’t come, I will just keep adding at DCL’s here and there, bigger orders at ICL’s for the next 6-10 months. I think you will be ok, especially if you can hold, but only you can determine how nervous you are in declines with big size on.

  15. Gary Post author

    It seems like the favorite bias almost all gold bugs have is that at some point in the future gold is going to dislocate to the upside and the risk is that if you aren’t in you will miss that magical day.

    I’ve got news for you, it’s never going to come.

    Gold is in a bull market there’s no doubt about it. I think it’s also stuck in a difficult basing pattern probably for most of the year. When it does go higher it’s going to be as a slow grind, not a rip.

    The rip when it comes will be during the final weeks of the bubble phase and that my friends is still several years away.

    1. Ralph Wiederzane

      I do agree with this comment, and I’m not expecting a magical reset anytime soon, if ever. I am perfectly happy the HUI creeps higher with everybody taking shots at the short side while waiting for a big pullback to buy. It if comes, it is safe to be long because buyers are waiting and if it doesn’t come, good for me too.

      I truly don’t expect the HUI to trade anything like 2016, and we are already seeing this. It feels like GDX has gone nowhere, yet we are already up 37.5% from December’s lows, and not too many advisors are long, in fact n one that I read are heavily long, instead they are all waiting to buy a pullback!

  16. jake

    Getting closer to expiry week and gold is still finding support and miners are getting hammered. Gary could be right about the banks shifting to shaking out the weak hands in miners, while gold continues its bull run, ” basing pattern.”

  17. dboz

    Point taken. I was referring to miners. At some point there has to be sustained and gradually building upside? We have not seen that. We see rapid gains and then nothing followed by rapid drops. We are no where near correcting timing mistakes even though gold was 80 off the last year highs. That’s my point. No one believes there is upside here and everyone thinks big downside is coming. Is the market really that easy? Goes the way everyone is playing it?

    1. Ralph Wiederzane

      If you are convinced of your trade and determined not to change anything, it might help to step away from the computer and not watch every wiggle, comment, etc. It will shake your resolve, maybe force errors, and at a minimum it will make you miserable until the trade pans out. This worked for me really well in 2016, and kept me in my winners far longer than I would have if I had checked every tick.

      The key I think is to have a size that is as heavy as you can tolerate, but small enough with enough dry powder you can comfortably hold without looking! lol

      1. Ralph Wiederzane

        I plan to take my own advice after I’m loaded up, by the way, so won’t be around here worrying about others’ opinions once I’ve placed my bets. πŸ™‚

  18. Pingback: Here’s Why Gold Miners Have Probably Topped - Investing Video & Audio Jay Taylor Media

  19. Ralph Wiederzane

    My other newsletter guy has surprised me as well this morning, saying he is not only short miners, but that not is NOT the time to go long bc miners could be “MUCH lower at the end of the 4th daily cycle low”.

    Wow, seems to me there aren’t so many bulls as some here suggest. if I were a short term trading monkey pecking at the keyboard and short the miners, I would cover around the 22.50 level on GDX. Lets see if the shorts cash out the profits quickly or instead convinced lower prices are guaranteed and stay in the shorts?

    This is setting up perfectly, in my opinion.

  20. Pingback: Chart of the day – Miners intermediate cycle top? – test

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