I suspect the market will be near the all-time highs ahead of the FOMC meeting on May 3rd.
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I suspect the market will be near the all-time highs ahead of the FOMC meeting on May 3rd.
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Gary people are still very bullish gold. I think stock market has bottomed based on the overnight action. Anybody buying Jnug or miners now are going to be in trouble. Gold hasn’t even started or is just about to begin its intermediate decline. These are usually bloodbaths. A stock rally to all time highs will fuel this. There is no way miners keep rallying from here. But maybe this DCL coming on gold will be shallow due to right translation and then maybe a dead cat for the next daily cycle that should be LT leading to ICL?
That came out of left field, Gary didn’t even mention miners. Perhaps a little biased?
What rally?
JNUG is down $5 already from Feb.. You think we have another $5 to drop? Take it down to $1 and match 2015 lows?
I think you are going to be wrong about that Robert. I am very bullish miners right now. Especially the juniors. It looks probable that gold has finished its correction and bottomed at 1275.40 although I will hold fire a little longer as it is now making a continuation pattern on the 5 minute chart that suggests it will, at a minimum, test the days lows again.
Lets not be hasty in any case. The gold chart needs to work off this pattern and it could take all day before it gives a signal its ready to reverse higher again. One thing I have learned from experience is that waiting often pays.
A lot of guys think they are going to miss the big move. They jump in prematurely and get caught in a downdraft instead or have money tied up in a trade that stays stuck going sideways. Bottoming patterns are almost always a process though and you often have more than one chance to enter at or near the very bottom.
Let the chart come to you in its own time. When you are uncertain it’s best to just do nothing but wait.
If you believe there will be upside, I am fine with catching a downdraft and being in position once we get an up move. I would expect the upside to be fast and strong. Better to be in position and waiting vs. trying to time the perfect bottom and miss one of those huge up days. Of course a beat down like today is difficult as I was buying the last several days. But, so be it. Big down today unless we take off and this was THE dip before a higher move. Good info as always.
Robert,
I was in the same IC decline camp as you last week. But closer inspection of the charts has caused me to believe there’s still room to run upward in gold, & probably miners.
Not to mention I don’t see all this bullishness on metals, everybody I read is calling for a correction, including G-man. I’m a bull long term and only 28% invested at the moment, so where are the bulls?
Alex at Chart Freak, Bob Moriarty at 321gold, and Jordy Rayban, all bearish too at the moment.
Agreed, there are no bulls. Volume is putrid every day.
For comparison, in Jan 2016 I was 100% invested in rip-snortin’, tear-your-face-off junior miners and explorers, so you really can’t count me as a bull now, either.
Yes, that is my point, there are no buyers as EVERYONE is expecting this big dive again. It can’t be that easy.
Don’t listen to anyone but yourself. Guys like Moriarty who are chronic bottom callers often miss the turns. They sound all too confidant but if you follow their record and recommendations you will see many of them are very average traders who just have big mouths and ego’s to match. I don’t know much about Jordan other than he was way too bullish all the way down the past five years so his advice is worthless in my books and I won’t read him anymore.
Commercial COT usually shows a larger net short position at gold’s IC top, btw. That’s also not bearish enough for me to believe gold’s IC has topped yet.
Commercial Shorts for Silver was at its highest on Monday with 114,414 Contracts. If that’s not forth telling enough; I don’t know what is.
Heard that one before. Commercial shorts have been in the nosebleed section since the summer of 2016 already and its made no difference to silver all that time. You need better information than that or you are going to just spin your tires and waste time and money. You cannot trade by COTS because they are useless for timing. Even on a weekly chart level they have been nothing short of useless. So don’t even bother.
Check this weekly silver for yourself. COT’s data is at the bottom of the chart.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=w1
You’re absolutely right.. My tires are spinning out of control while I make a bundle of cash shorting the Miners. You’re such a git Lol!
Here’s a lesson for you Ped: You don’t use COT numbers to time an entry.. You use those numbers in conjunction with other numbers [such as Sentiment] to gauge overall market health.
Now go away like you said you would yesterday when you got your panties all twisted up in a bunch 🙂
GDXJ down less than GDX at the open so far. Wonder what that means?
zkotpen, right on. Good points.
Check out that bar on the GLD chart, hope it ain’t fortelling a visit to those levels!
http://schrts.co/mNvnQF
To comment on the guy from last blog entry. Yes, I am emotional. Yes, I am heavily invested. I will bide my time if needed, but not seeing anything to give the sector a boost if we go down hard here. Pullback, yes, test the lows, no. If we drop to test the lows, when everyone is expecting that, I will be shocked and it will be an expensive lesson for me for the third time in 7 months. Slow learner mode for me.
I’m not expecting we test the lows, I will buy into the decline ahead of time. All I need are a couple good shock impulses lower, no matter where they leave prices, something to take the technicals to sell oversold is good enough for me. Otherwise I will keep what I have and wait for it to happen a few more months from now and at higher prices.
Ped,
I really started paying attention to channels after your post a week or so ago…
I have JDST just breaking above the upper rail of the bearish channel and following a very narrow channel up now…
What are your thoughts as far as this goes?
Cool Mattyman. Just when I thought nobody was paying attention. It’s amazing how much criticism I take some days but I suspect we can come to our own conclusions what kind of people are behind those foolish, mocking posts.
So absolutely DO keep following channels. You will see better trade results almost immediately and it will do wonders for your confidence. It is not a guarantee however as every charts channel must eventually change direction. No channel runs in a single direction forever in other words.
That’s where the waiting comes in. I leave money on the table by buying late and doing so ONLY after I see the trend has reversed or a bottom or top is fairly certain. Others with more of a penchant for gambling will buy what they *think* is the bottom without giving the chart enough time to play out.
That’s often a big mistake so try to avoid the temptation to think you are smarter than the market.
When volume starts to rise and you see others are betting on a trend change you will have insight that your entry is probably a good one. Now about JDST…depending on what level chart you are watching you could indeed see an overshoot of price. It may not materially affect the pattern though so be careful about buying if you are only using an hourly chart for example.
What you need to keep in mind is the closing numbers and those will differ whether you are using a 5 minute level or a very large monthly chart. For example, the monthly close will not post until the last trading day of April and a daily close won’t be known until this day is actually over.
Similarly 5 minute closes are not the same as one minute closes so overshoots on the lesser charts can distract if you don’t know the differences. They can also offer great entry and exit points if you monitor them closely. For example a 5 minute close can differ substantially from a daily close and when you look at the chart the next day you will wonder if you were seeing things because at the lowest level the price got down to say 5.75 but on the daily it only shows a low of 6 dollars even.
Hopefully this is a good explanation. If not I will try again later.
I bought DUST on Monday once I spotted a reverse H&S on my 15 minute Chart and then picked up some more yesterday. Looks like I’m not that dumb after all — go figure 🙂
Did anyone buy on that dip?
I picked up some more JNUG at 6.16. Hoping that Ped is right about a little more upside.
Now is not the time dboz. Everyone is in a hurry to buy the dip but Miners still have further to drop. JNUG will break March lows without a doubt in my mind.
By the way, I don’t know why so many are beating up on Ped. He is the only one on this blog who has been making consistently good calls lately. I bought JDST a couple weeks ago when he was calling for a decline and sold it today for a nice profit.
We’re beating up on Ped because he’s an arrogant little prick and I suspect he always as been. Are you really that gullible..?
It’s just jealousy on their part Dsims. Everyone wants to be the best but only a few ever achieve it and that drives them nuts. When they just acknowledge the fact I am a more skilled trader their lives will be easier and they can let down their hair a little and stop being so proud.
More upside? I used to follow pedestrian and it cost me a bundle. Don’t be stupid. Gold is going down on my screens.
I never advised you on any trade so stop blaming me for your poor performance.
Don, no day trade today? I am itching to make money.
Don’s 300 SOXS shares are currently underwater, unless he was able to dump them on Tuesday before the closing bell.
Nope, still have SOXS . Not happy about them being underwater but I don’t think the SM is going to go up very far. I put a long crude oil position on yesterday that isn’t doing well either. I am considering buying another long. Gary and I are both long energy. Is that a good thing?
Forty years of trading experience and three computer screens and you are posting two more losers. I don’t think you are capable of learning this game. Maybe you should stop harassing me all the time and take a look in the mirror, Mr Special.
I have made a string of winning calls as anyone who watches this blog regular would know. I have never had great deal of luck at day trading and will stop if I get too many losing trades. Furthermore, I am only putting on very small positions for a day trade. more for fun than anything else. The vast bulk of my trading is longer term. It is impossible to win immediately every time and as an experienced trader, you should know that. But then, are you really experienced? We all (should) know better but I guess you have fooled s few into thinking you know something. I think you had one winner that was verifiable with real time postings, quite a while back. Your most recent call for gold and the miners to go up hasn’t been a complete dud, so far. Correct?
I would suggest waiting until we have something identifiable as a daily cycle low. They usually drop far enough to at least turn the 10 DMA back down. At the moment gold is still ABOVE the 10 DMA. We are 26 days into the daily cycle. If you are buying now you are playing musical chairs and hoping you’re faster than the other guy and can get out before the music stops.
Gary,
You are expecting an ICL to occur though now, no?
We need a DCL before we can get an ICL. Then a left translated daily cycle after that.
Exactly. And then that is just a DCL. What about the ICL? There is much more room to the downside
I am expecting another 10% atleast down on GDXJ… that could be the ICL for Gold as well at 1230 to 1200… these should go up starting may for the new IC cycle
Too much time for a DCL – 2 months almost
Bigd: I don;t see any good setups for a day trade. Yesterday, I should have made my crude oil position a day trade although it might snap back yet.
What the hell?? That was not me!! Somebody is impersonating me.
Change your password quick. If the Troll changes it before you then you could lose your identity altogether. Make it at least 20 characters with alpha-numerics and symbols so its impossible to crack. I see that Gary has made changes to the system already such that WordPress will automatically generate a new password for you.
I just bought UWT at 21.63. I think crude is headed higher.
Once again, spot down minimally, miners down bigly. Big drops today. When discussing I think you have to keep them separate as miners are horrible compared to the actual metal. If you are investing in metal GLD SIL, you are much better off than being in miners. Any sign of weakness and they just start avalanching. Guess I am just used to it happening. Another day of big red as a miner investor.
Wasn’t me either although it was crafted to make it sound like me. Ped said yesterday that someone was using his name. Maybe we all need to change our passwords as he did.
Yup. I got hacked. We have a troll on the loose on this site. Fortunately this one has a sense of humour and isn’t too dangerous. But you are indeed advised to change passwords ASAP. Everyone should get it done now.
I am not buying into crude. it’s falling like a stone. good luck .
How about the triangle in Gold, are we not ready for another wiggle-waggle here ?
Gary wrote numerous times that he expected gold to top early this week …
Well, that got ugly fast, sold my crude at a loss. No use fighting the trend.
I would advise caution here as we head into this upcoming weekend.. The Market could sell off and Gold could see more upside next week if Marine Le Pen wins the first round of the French elections on Sunday. That could mark the top in Gold [if it hasn’t already done so] and we could see something similar to what happened during the US elections.
LOL, miners have been dying to sell off hard.
Told yah 🙂
Gold goes up $50 and miners barely move. Gold drops $7 and miners act like it just dropped $50.
Hey Don, did you noticed that BKX is up 9% this morning? I love having a winner. When do we sell?
I just changed my password. It was only three letters. Stupid, I know. Haha.
Holy smokes look at Platinum Group Metal, it was at 3.10 just a month and a ½ ago, now 1.70 …
You in Canada?
What do you mean dboz`No I am not from Canada.
I just bought 300 ZJG @ 8.72 Bigdaddy, please don’t buy these as a day trade. I am accumulating for a long term hold. I don’t know where the bottom will be for the junior miners. so it they could go much lower.
bigdaddy: I have no plan to sell BKX just yet. It was bought for long term. The insiders are buying for a reason is how I see it. The fact that it is up today while oil is getting beaten up is encouraging.
Glad I took my stops off.
I bought another 6000 at .235.
lol You guys still bullish on miners/JNUG? Haha its not ready yet, daily cycle low will be dead cat and then Intermediate decline starts. Gary is right. Listen to him
Actually, GDX is still around 12% higher than when Gary sold miners, so no he is not yet “right”. It amazes me how people only think of yesterday. lol
We should see sustained overbought conditions if this is a bull market. No where near seeing anything overbought for sustained periods yet. Unless you consider 1-2 weeks sustained.
Did you buy that HUGE dip we just had? That was an opportunity to get in.
Gary, I bought XLE on your advice. Should I sell it and take the loss? Thanks. Alvin
Alin: Be thankful you didn’t buy ERX , now down 12% from it’s peak last week.
We are going to get stopped out of our energy trades but sentiment is extremely bearish so I’d wait for a bounce.
bounce in energy ?!!!
yes, but later in May.
Where is that Goild guy? He usually lets us know by now that he has made hundreds for his lunch money. He’s going to have a heart attack from eating so much.
Short cotton anew.
Holding onto the short crude oil – just changed maturity to next month contract.
Awaiting to get back long gold too.
…planning to cover my Short Crude Oil in May below 46.
Like everything else Yahoo controls, they have finally managed to mess up Yahoo Finance. I can’t find anything easily and many features appear to be gone. No wonder the company has never been able to become a winner.
Agree. That site hardly loads anymore its so full of junk. Way too busy and too data rich for my liking. What I want is a clean site with no ads that loads in a flash or its just a bloody waste of time. Some 22 year old programmer genius over there who has never traded a stock in their life is probably in charge though.
Not a clue what we really need.
I think it’s funny that no one is talking about buying the dips anymore 🙂
I’ve got buy limit orders in to start adding to my miners, though I still would like them to weaken further first. Only one partial fill so far, so not like they are all being thrown out the window.
I guess it all depends on your time frame Ralph. After today’s sell-off I would expect a bounce up which could make for a perfect day trade, but don’t be fooled.. Miners have a ways to go!
Of course it depends on time frames, I’m not a day trade monkey so am looking to buy things people are throwing out and hold them for many months at the absolute least, more likely 12-24 months. Not there yet, but getting close.
Truly amazed that a less than 1% gold and silver drop has triggered 5-10% miner sell offs. There is no miner bull market.
I’m not sure why you’re so amazed. Precious metals and Miners don’t always move in lock step.. in fact, Miners often precede the move in precious metals, sometimes with the Dollar in tow to confuse the heck out of everyone.
Gary, myself and a couple of others have been saying this for awhile now: Gold is long over due for a correction.. this is nothing new. It could pop up during the first round of French elections but after that.. it’s bedtime! And this is coming from Gold Bull.
Interesting post for those who may be long ERX:
goo.gl/g9kd9C
pedestrian, nice call on the miners, NOT! You always seem to appear with calls that are dead wrong, bearish on gold while it was going up and now bullish on the miners as they go down. Gary got the miners right but his call on energy sue isn’t working out so well.
Obviously you are not a subscriber, Gary didn’t get miners right, not for another 12% lower from here.
I just realized that what BigDaddy is saying is correct. It is true that I am getting bullish as miners fall and bearish as they rise. But I think he does not yet appreciate that kind of trading style where one anticipates the next turn and just waits until it arrives. Invariably at those times I am not trading what is actually happening on the screen but rather I am trading what is coming next.
In other words I am preparing for a trade set up to make itself known and not chasing the thing that is still moving. Hopefully that makes sense BD. Maybe you should not read my posts anymore until you think carefully about what I just wrote.
I suspect you don’t read my posts very carefully. I specifically told everyone that I was WAITING for an entry point on JNUG not that I was buying yet. So when you are seeing the price of miners fall what I am seeing is the set-up to make an entry. You need to overlook the decline that is in motion since that is not the time to buy. I also said to let the chart come to you as bottoms are a process and that buying too early was usually a mistake. If you already bought JNUG you ignored points one and two and are currently underwater. JNUG is however carving out a bottom at this time by the looks of it and my suspicion is it will close the day
around 6.00 dollars. But we shall see.
Please pay careful attention to what I am writing before criticizing me.
bigdaddy: In your defense, I will point out that Ped is getting very good at talking out of both sides of his mouth. Just this morning he posted to Robert: ” I am very bullish miners right now. Especially the juniors” That was just before JNUG fell to pieces. Now he wants everyone to believe that he got it right and you just aren’t paying attention to what he said. Really?? It’s laughable! He talks an awful lot but rarely posts a trade unless it it is one of those ‘hindsight’ winners.
OMG you are freaking nuts! No wonder you get your ass kicked trading so often. “Bullish miners” does NOT mean that the charts are fully completed by any means. I have repeatedly said today I am waiting for an entry on JNUG at the best possible price.
By definition that means I am not in a bear trade today so it makes no difference where JDST has gone since that has no impact on me except to define my entry point on JNUG. The whole point of the exercise is to identify where the bear trade tops so I can make the purchase of the bull trade I referenced.
And that is exactly what I have done.
Moments ago (mid post actually) I picked up a position in JNUG at 5.68 which is currently trading at 5.73 so I think I am good to go. There is a reasonable possibility that price may retest the lows once more today but I have a good entry by my reckoning and hope to make this trade number 20 another great success.
Wish me luck Don. I know you are secretly rooting for me.
I just bough 200 HOU @ 7.11 (Canadian double leveraged on crude) I am taking another crack at being long oil.
https://invst.ly/3rtok
Short term should be a bounce(15 min chart). Daily has further to fall.
Ped,
Thanks for your explanation above.
JDST exploded way above my channel, lol
Now I don’t know what to do
I’m sure I could take profit and find a better entry later, but I don’t want to miss the bottom completely falling out of GDXJ (if it does)
It jumped above my expectation too. It’s why it pays to wait to see if your top is finished or has further to run or in my case if the bottom has formed and is ready to buy (JNUG). Someone up above is in a spastic fit because they don’t seem to understand that this kind of trading means identifying turning points before pulling the trigger. All he sees is gold falling and miners dropping and thinks that anyone getting bullish is making a mistake. Or in your case, anyone ready to sell a bear trade is probably nuts. If you still hold JDST then congratulations on the nerves of steel and I hope you get the best price possible today. I will await the best entry on JNUG while you are doing that.
Don, you are trying to catch a falling knife! can’t you see oil is in a free fall?
Energy via XLE and ERX taking it in the cheeks, now below the March lows if I ain’t mistaken. Probably due for a bounce from the looks of the chart, but nothing I am interested in betting on.
Just sold out my JDST at 16.98, shy of my original target of JUNG March low of 5.2. I was watching a possible daily DB forming and decided to get out.I know I`m leaving some money on the table and maybe miss another gap down tomorrow but I think I`ll get another entry later. JNUG is due for a DC bounce and besides, I just loaded some more DSLVs. CB now at 20.9.
Time for a nice cold beer. It`s been a wild rocky ride with JDST but well worth it..:)
Nice work man!
Congratulations on your excellent trade.
Thanks Ped. Good to see you`re sticking around. I closed down my live trading charts. Friends don`t let friends drink and trade. LOL!!
Ha Ha Ha!!! So true man.
Just bought into JNUG at 5.68 btw and damn the torpedoes. Now I will cross my fingers and hope I called it right. I bought the back-test zone which I mentioned earlier today or perhaps on the prior thread.
So far so good. I am already in the green.
Gold hasnt even dropped yet and you guys buying miners? Maybe for a dead cat but stay away from them
Today I had some good losses; a big red day for me.
To me JNUG is cheap and I loaded 10K shares to hold for a while.
Good trading to all.
Look at the technicals…Friendly advice, not a dig
Sorry to hear it Goild. Hopefully you were not following my trading style since it is obviously very different. Remember I wrote that price had to hold above 6.00 or that would change the outcome. Once it fell below the chart was altered but I think that came later in the day as you bought pre-market. But that would have required waiting for the best price to come to you rather than shooting at anything that moved. In any event I may have bought too early too if that makes you feel better. The channel will have been violated if price cannot get back to 6 dollars by the days close so I may yet have a bad day tomorrow too.
KHT: Nice play.
Thanks Don…Appreciate it..:)
I was reading today that someone tried smashing gold down yesterday with a sale of 25000 contracts and when that didn’t work, another 3 billion dollars worth were sold today. If it’s true, I would think that only a central bank could have that kind of firepower.
Must have been Harry Dent – he still thinks gold is going to $700 or lower, LOL!!!
jk though
LOL!!!
Jawohl. What an idiot. If anyone listens to him, he or she deserves to lose his or her money. Harry Dent is a nincompoop. 😎
Dday,
Thanks.
I sold them and will be patient.
Thanks again.
Prison anal rape is gentler than SMT trades.
What are the SMT trades if you don’t mind me asking? I think you must be a subscriber and over on the other side we don’t know what is happening in Gary’s trading room. Are you allowed to tell?
You haven’t figured it out from all the mentions here? Failed energy trades, failed equity trades, success in miner short that doesn’t come close to balancing out anything.
Ben Dover and Phil McCrackin are having a field day.
No I have not figured it out since I don’t really know which of you guys are SMT people and which are just random bloggers like myself. There are a lot of trades being discussed daily but most are of no interest to me unless they involve gold.
Well there you go then. Clears it up.
For the record I was a SMT sub for a short stretch last year into this year but got out when he jacked his prices from $25/month to $500/yr. I went to another cycle analyst ($25/month) that provides me with excellent daily and weekly updates but without constantly berating the subs and telling them how stupid they are for not holding out after buying into tops. Other than that the only thing missing is the drama of a forum.
Yeah, the sub bashing thing is a bit tiresome. I really hate reading that shit.
Ped,
Thanks for the note.
I was making half lunch money and saw the falling knife coming so I sold most of the shares I had.
Forgot my cares and started to play against the falling knife. I lost 2 1/2 weeks of lunches.
We will see how I continue trying to deal with the problem.
We need to get ready to get into JNUG when it bottoms. It can be an awesome ride.
Are they going to raise rate on May 3rd? What is your take, Gary?
Ped and I are both long the miners , him with triple leveraged JNUG and me with unleveraged ZJG.
I am not an expert at timing this market like most people on this blog. I consider today a blessing in the big picture down the road when actually big money will be made. I am far sighted and continue to analyze the entire beach, just not each individual grain of sand, continuing to add to positions with powder available. A wonderful evening to all, including PED.
Many thanks. Happy Easter to you.
If you can see this linked chart the way I do you will understand what I meant about buying the back-test of the support line. Notice price sits right on top of the purple line. You may disagree with how the computer has drawn the support (I do too actually) but it is close enough for the level of risk I have in play and I think its going to hold.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=jnug
Doesn’t the decay factor of JNUG bugger up the chart from that timeframe?
Matty, you are absolutely correct. Ped is just too inexperienced to know that one should always chart the underlying index, and never a derivative, especially when looking at a long term chart. I keep saying the guy is a know nothing know it all and he just keeps proving that to be true.
No Matty. Not over shorter periods of time anyway. I hear a lot of guys saying these ETF’s can’t be traded technically but that’s just plain rubbish and my record proves it.
You should always chart the underlying index. The triple leverage ETFs will only distort the chart.. Although, on occasion I do like to use it to draw support and resistance lines as well as channel lines, but I always refer to the index before I pull the trigger.
Agree. You should always chart the underlying resource as well. Without knowing what gold is doing its not possible to successfully trade any of the gold and miner instruments.
Holy Shit Don….
What is wrong with you? I just posted a live trade today where I bought within a few cents of the bottom that was based on charting a 3X ETF and you call me a know-nothing? So far I am already in the green 24 cents a share and the chart turned bullish at days end.
Maybe you are the one with a problem. I see you had another pair of trade losses today so your method perhaps needs a little more work. Pay attention and you might learn something new instead of throwing nasty barbs at me every single day.
You are starting to sound like a poor loser.
pedsetrian, why did you you buy JNUG if the price fell below your $6 support line?
Because I decided that what we had on our hands was an overshoot to the downside. It was a subjective call made on the basis I believe the close today will still come in near the channel line. But that is a little risky at times and can cost you if you are wrong. So far so good. Looks like I may have bought within 4 cents of the bottom as price is already rising back towards 6 dollars and there is still time in the day to close the gap.
It may not really matter though. Notice that there are two trend lines in play in my linked chart. One is the blue line which I am still below and the other is the purple line which is still holding strong. I made my buy with a bias for the purple upper trend line which is the backtest rather than the blue line which is the lower support.
Hope that helps.
Interesting Ped. Plug in NUGT and see a similar backtest emerging. But plug in GDX and see a big red failed candle today.
Will do. I got so focused on just a few charts I have not seen anything else today.
Well
Well I made a fast $3k today playing DUST calls now I reversed going into OPX with Puts…easy money. No longer buying and holding these pieces of excrement Im trading them. I have had a pretty good grove so far lol.
Nicely done Bill.
Welcome to the dark side.
Nice Bill — but only sold half of my position in DUST @28.25. The drop in Miners isn’t over yet Mouhahahaaa!
The US Dollar has been weak for the past several days and yet most commodities have been selling off. Unusual. .
The SM gapped up and then sold off and closed down with a feeble recovery in the last few minutes. That can’t be bullish. However, Gary says the market will be pushed up ahead of the FOMC meeting. That makes me nervous about being short but then I remember some of his other calls that went sour (most recent have ERX and XLE) so maybe I need to chill and see how things play out.
I was tempted to buy silver today but just couldn’t pull the trigger. Don, you are out of the metals completely, right? Any idea when we might see a bottom in the PMs?
I have moved to acceptance. I am not even going to worry about it any longer. Running all in again now and without stops. It is what it is. Easy come, easy go. Tired of these crash and burn stop runs and then bounce backs. Just going long and sitting tight. Looks like we will be going down quite a ways again anyway, so no sense to torture myself. Good luck to all of you trading the wiggles.
FWIW…Sometimes the best trade is no trade. At the very least, don`t get married to a security or sector if it is going against you. I have stopped bad runs by just selling taking a break and regrouping. Don`t just give your hard earned money away.
We`ve all been there buddy.
Hey does anyone know a site that provides free up to date statistics for stock advances and declines and volume up/down ? I don’t want a chart but actual numbers.
Here is what I use. see the main page. Quick and dirty. New lows and new highs plus a bull/bear sentiment assessment. You can read the green and red bars at a glance. Its worth the subscription too.
http://finviz.com/
Ped ur Jnug should jus be a quick bounce trade. I think you should sell it tomorrow. No way have miners ended their correction. Gold hasn’t even pulled back yet!
Maybe Robert. We will see what Thursday brings. Gold has found its own support line though by bouncing precisely off the lower channel and should be bouncing back up during the night.
It remains my belief that gold will still hit its long term channel line and so that is my bet.
There is also an outside possibility that gold will break through that resistance as well and head for 1321 or thereabouts so I hope to be able to hold on if it does and not get scared out by some ups and downs that will inevitably arise.
If any of that comes true this trade could be memorable.
Thanks Pedestrian, I will check it out.
Anytime JJ.
Funny that you should ask. I was just saying today that all that information was available on yahoo finance and it included Nasdaq and AMEX numbers and now it appears to be gone.
This is a good source for the closing data but it doesn’t update during the trading day the way it did at yahoo. http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-tradingdiary2.html
Thanks to Ped and Don for the links.
Sure thing.
Hey check this chart JJ. It’s the Nikkei and it sure looks like its forming a Cup-and-handle pattern implying it will launch sharply higher at almost anytime. It’s not perfect but should give us pause if we are short stocks. Keep an eye on it in case it does break out and confirm the C&H pattern as this one suggests the index could soar as much as 4000 points or more. It will destroy my theory of a breakdown at prior resistance in the process but thems the breaks. My theory was not really tested anyway so it was never certain to play out to script.
Ralph,
You quit too soon. We took a position in DUST and we’ve already made more in one week than we would have trying to catch the last few pennies of the rally in miners. Especially in the juniors which didn’t do anything coming out of the last DCL.
I still think the banks are going to try to run the Dec. lows. Might as well go along for the ride instead of standing on the tracks in front of them.
Haha you went short Miners. Good to hear I’m not the only seeing downside but Dec lows seems too much a stretch. I think it will stop at March lows
Gary — You little bugger — I pleaded for you to consider Shorting the Miners a few days ago and what did you do?!! You brushed it off and quickly reminded me and all the other Goombas on this forum that you’re not in the business of shorting!! LOL And now look at you 🙂
Two things convinced me to take a short trade (which I almost never do).
First I think the banks are going to try to run the stops below the Dec. lows at the next ICL.
And second that huge volume up day on DUST was a major warning bell ringing that a top could be forming.
We got another one today.
Well done! In the meantime, others are losing out by trying to pick a bottom. I’ll never understand people that like to get in front of a moving train.
Question: Are you worried that the French elections could propel Gold like it did during the US elections? That could throw a wrench in our DUST trade.
Your not worried about gold bounce on the coming DCL?
Great. What else can anyone do? Just ride the prevailing trend.
Not standing on the tracks G, sitting on the side waiting for the next train in my direction. lol
I wouldn’t have shorted miners even as I agree they could move lower, and I find in interesting that you would violate your golden rule to never, ever short a bull market. I am not only comforted in my opinion to be looking on the long side by the fact you are shorting, but also by the fact most of your other recent ideas have not been working. It’s not a dig on you so please don’t take it that way, its just that we all have hot and cold streaks and you have been cold of late, so I don’t mind the idea of being on the other side.
In the end we have to trade what we see, and I think we will have a great opportunity to get heavily long soon, as in buying over the next several weeks. I am not looking for action, I’m looking to make the biggest, “easiest” amount of money possible, so don’t need to be involved every day calling every wiggle.
If I were going to short, I certainly wouldn’t be doing it in miners since I see the downside as limited, I would be far more inclined to short oil (though not here since it due for a bounce), or something else that trades along with the economy heading lower, even the SnP or Russell.
Good luck though, I hope you are right and I can buy ahead of you guys when you cover!
JJ,
Perhaps this free program can help you.
It is a scanner that you can direct to find stuff.
http://finviz.com/
Oh, I see Ped has already suggested it.