135 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY – NO SUCH THING AS A QUADRUPLE TOP

  1. Ralph Wiederzane

    Cool, because AMZN is only worth $433 billion right now, should be valued at well over a trillion if you ask me. After all, it does mail order.

    1. Ralph Wiederzane

      LOL, and then there is NFLX. Can somebody explain to me how that can only be worth $61 billion? They stream videos, so does AMZN, so should be worth close to half a trillion. Maybe next year.

  2. Gary Post author

    Bubbles have nothing to do with fundamentals. They are driven by human emotions and easy credit.

    Tech stocks didn’t even have any earnings in 99-00, but that didn’t stop the bubble from forming.

    Tankers were sitting in the gulf with no place to unload their oil, but that didn’t stop the bubble in energy in 08.

    1. Ralph Wiederzane

      My point is I think we might already be in the bubble, and a good way through it. Buy NFLX at $63 billion all you want, but be ready to get out quick, quicker than you did the silver bubble in 2011!

      1. Ralph Wiederzane

        Ans i will admit they sure look like they are going higher, and I mean it that AMZN probably hits a trillion market cap, but I don’t care that everybody else is jumping off buildings or playing musical chairs, it’s not for me.

      2. Gary Post author

        Bubbles are characterized by mass participation of the public. This usually results in a 100% gain in a year or less in at least one of the indexes. Look at the magnitude of that breakout in the NASDAQ. I’m going to say 10000 will be a piece of cake and 20,000 isn’t out of the question over the next year-and-a-half.

      1. Gary Post author

        That assumes one bought at the exact top.

        We are trying to buy before the bubble starts, not at the top. Heck the breakout just occurred. If the top occurs at 10,000 we would have lots of cushion. If it comes at 20,000 even more.

        Either way that’s a huge breakout from a huge 15 year consolidation. It’s going to drive a big move.

        If this was a chart of gold I would say 20,000 to 30,000 minimum.

        1. Ralph Wiederzane

          Could be, but if you are right about a bubble, I would say a double top in the Nasdaq on that chart I posted is more likely. That would still be respectable upside.

          I like those long term charts because they put things in perspective. Of course, they rarely matter for the next IC or two.

  3. Pedestrian

    How about 6 attempts to break out and then a fail? That’s what the Nikkei has done. It never did reach the target of 20,000 I was aiming for as major resistance but instead kept banging its head around the 19,500 level before final dropping back. Too many people obviously watching that same level as me so selling has met buying not allowing upward momentum to carry the index to the 20K level
    .
    http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NKD&p=d1

        1. Ralph Wiederzane

          Timing aside, fundamentals do matter, that is why we see these charts like the one I posted on the Nasdaq. The do come crashing back to earth, and that’s because fundamentals, not because the charts predicted it. Before they crash and burn, the charts say “nothing but clear skies ahead”.

          1. Ralph Wiederzane

            But for most short term day trading monkeys, I agree, no use in even looking at the long term charts unless they want to get rich. The wealthiest players in the stock markets aren’t focused on IC’s, much less daily cycles, they think really long term.

          2. primetime

            No if fundamentals matter, it would have never formed a bubble. Momentum,hype,euphoria, get rich quick all wore off, and people got bored and moved on to the next get rich quick sector. I agree nothing to do with the charts.

      1. Pedestrian

        Weekly chart first line of resistance is at 20,000.

        There is indeed a higher peak and of course I have seen it. But I take my trades one line at a time and 20,000 is the number it must breach before the second resistance point comes into play. So there is no point speculating about the 21,000 region until we get above 20,000 first.

    1. Pedestrian

      Anyway Gary, I think you have drawn your channel line incorrectly. But I really appreciate you pointing it out because I was not watching that chart. What you ACTUALLY have on your hands is an expanding wedge and I would target a decline all the way back to 5600 minimum once 5950 has been hit today.

      So the Nasdaq is a sell in my books.

      And on that note, anyone here with big doubts about what the French elections or prospects of Korean conflict might do to their gold holdings or other sensitive stocks over the weekend should consider hedging or lightening up. This is one aspect of the market where day traders hold the advantage since most of us tend to get back into cash over the weekend.

      That’s called waiting to see what happens before making a commitment after kissing the girl.

      I don’t know what is going to happen and neither does anyone else. Maybe Kim-Kong does a missile test over Japan after all. Maybe the Chinese drop kick NK on the border and start a skirmish. Maybe the wrong team wins the French Presidential’s.

      Maybe Deutsche Bank goes bankrupt by surprise……

      I hate holding stuff on weekends for just those kind of reasons! So I will exit at any reasonable price

        1. Pedestrian

          Can you redraw your channel in the image above so everyone can see the alternative scenario with an expanding wedge? Or maybe add a second chart? I think the pattern is obvious enough that buyers should exercise caution. Maybe this is telling us something about next week too. If stocks fall then gold could be on the rise again for that last move up to 1305 but miners may not participate.

          Thanks Gary

          1. Gary Post author

            I have to squint pretty hard to see a megaphone in that chart. The third peak was not higher than the second and the dip was not lower than the second.

            Oh and it wasn’t meant to be a trend line. It was a resistance level.

          2. Pedestrian

            OK, just saw it. That looks fine to me. I agree its a minor pattern and of course it is still incomplete. What we need to be wary of is if price turns down from the upper rail since that will be the third point on the upper channel. These things can be a little hard to read but I trade that pattern all the time with good success and it qualifies the way it looks right now. But I still would not buy or sell until I saw the break.

    2. Don

      PED: back in February you were saying that everyone should watch the Nikkei because it would offer insight as to where the US market was going. Well the Nikkei experienced a 7.3% pullback and the S&P a mere 3.3%. Are you still thinking the Nikkei is the one to watch?

      1. Pedestrian

        I am watching all the major Japanese and European indices and added the DAX at your suggestion. My theory has validity but is taking MUCH longer to play out than initially anticipated. What is notable perhaps is that all those indices are still trading below their respective resistance points. So this is not over yet by a long shot.

  4. Ralph Wiederzane

    Looks like it will be a slow day, maybe it changes, but I’m outta here for the day. No cars or motorcycles allowed in my city today, so perfect day to walk with the wife and the pooch.

    I got filled on few buy orders in my mining names today, nothing huge but I keep nibbling away while waiting for the smashing we are all expecting and thus might not happen. Let’s hope we get that easy opportunity to load the boat.

    I will check quotes later, maybe place a smallish orders before the close. Have a great day, everybody!

  5. Pingback: Technicals Indicate Nasdaq On The Verge Of A Bullish Breakout - Investing Video & Audio Jay Taylor Media

  6. Alexandru Popovici

    GARY:
    Finally you agree lower lows are to be seen in risk-on assets in May [or June].
    Though, I would be a bit surprised to see the risk-off mood extending into June.

    The only thing bugging me is whether MAR22 hosted an ICL for Crude Oil (week 18); most likely it did, so that if indeed there was an ICL one month ago then…we would still be pretty early in the new IC.
    On the other hand, CRB index does not show relevant data to have hosted an ICL on MAR14 but merely a DCL and this brings in some comfort that the YCLs of risk on assets are next month.

    1. bluelagoon

      Alex – what is your forecast for crude if there’s a YCL next month and then what would be your forecasts for a high into July? We were stopped out of an ERX trade this morning and Gary is suggesting we get back in when XLE hits $66’s. But still holding a COP option that expires in Aug which we haven’t sold yet.

  7. Bigdaddy

    After yesterday’s big move, I thought today would be a another big day for the S&P. Not happening. sell off coming? I bought 200 SQQQ . I don’t like what silver is doing so staying away. I think Gary is right and the pms are going down further.

  8. Pedestrian

    So I guess we all know that a Le Pen win in Europe is negative for gold because it would drive money into dollars and sterling. When the Euro falls so does gold which is another way of saying a strong dollar is gold-negative. Personally I think it won’t be decided on the first ballot but then again I was wrong on both Trump and Brexit so what the hell do I know about politics. We do know the Eurocrats are trying to sabotage her though and there is already talk of hanky-panky in how some voting will be done. So maybe she loses, the euro is bid and peace reigns forevermore. LOL!!!

    What a life.

  9. Goild

    I am not endorsing JNUG. It is weak so I sold my 4K JNUG shares.
    However, if you have steel balls by 10K JNUG shares to make $10K within two weeks.
    Or to have temporary pain.

  10. Christian

    Interesting — that triangle could now be turning into a sideways consolidation ahead of the big move. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if Gold broke to the upside over the weekend but those gains would be short lived and Bulls could get caught into a trap.

    Marine Le Pen represents a ‘F*ck You’ to the European Establishment which could bury the Euro and boost the Dollar, but she also represents a certain level of uncertainty which could bolster Gold along with the dollar. FYI: Gold and the Dollar have been know to trade in the same direction.

    I might sell half of my position in DUST by end of day and re-assess on Monday. Haven’t decided yet.

  11. Goild

    This is a nugget from Ped’s wisdom:
    “I cannot understand that thinking at all. If you don’t know when to get short then how on Earth will you know when to get long? I mean to say that day follows night and night follows day. Knowing which is which tells you whether to wear pajamas or a business suit.”

    To practical implement it I added a JDST chart to my monitor (no more space left). I really helps to identify a the support/resistance of a channel while trading JNUG.

    Oh! Unless I am in silly mode, most of my trades are high precision. There are often days with 90%-100% success. This is not like using a shotgun.

  12. Alexandru Popovici

    GOILD, two notes, the latter being a question rather:
    – I do not see USO a relevant investment vehicle but USL instead –> the former is exposed to heavy errosion versus crude oil since it follows only outright oil futures contracts. USL on the other hand does not pose this major problem.
    – why did you go long crude oil (regardless of ur vehicle of choice) when it was falling like a shoting star ?!!
    Was there a particular signal in your trading strategy that you saw triggered?
    This is not a critique but a genuine question – I am interested to learn if occasion arises.

  13. Alexandru Popovici

    BLUELAGOON: YCL for Crude oil in 44 turf – this is an upgrade from 39 turf I used to have.
    I have no idea as to where it may get in July.

    1. bluelagoon

      Thx Alex. I went short oil last week but didn’t hold it long enough. Then went long for a bounce which barely materialized and I missed the out before the huge drop on the crude report. DWT is looking to me like it needs to correct before continuing up but it sure has gone a lot further than I expect all at once. I am new to oil and am finding this to be the case in oil – it moves much further, faster when you least expect it.

  14. Goild

    Alex,

    As a background previously I had bought USO and sold it almost at the peak. To me USO looks like a good deal.
    There have been several days oil going down. The price is also near support. So I thought the chances of a bounce are good and in the longer term I think it will hit again $11. It is not a day trade. In the past you had also mentioned USL. But the volume is not so great. You probably are right that USL is a better choice. The choice of USO is that I have traded it many times.

  15. Goild

    And, yes I agree USO is a falling knife and classically one would need to wait to oversold and all of that TA stuff. If it gets there I would double.

  16. Alexandru Popovici

    Goild,
    I see: you’ve bought USO as part of a long-term strategy w/ a signal being a support. Ok, then.

    here i have 3 other observations on USO vs ur long term strategy:
    1) USO is very lousy for long-term holding due to the errosion i mention (contrast USO vs crude oil price long-term and you’ll see),
    2) even if USL has lower liquidity, if you add to a long-term position then you add gradually, so that the lower liquidity is not relevant unless you are a heavy-weight trader, and
    3) the support of USL and technical analysis on an instrument like USO – an etf exposed to errosion – may not be relevant but rather TA for the undertlying asset: crude oil.

  17. JJHarmen

    Yesterday, I covered all my stock market shorts and sold my inverse ETFs for a nice loss. If the market sells off now, I will puke. Gary’s call to buy energy has turned out to be timely dud. ERX and XLE still taking a beating. I think from this point forward, I am going only consider positions that are the opposite of what he is doing.

  18. Don

    jj: You couldn’t have lost much on your shorts. The S&P peaked on March 3 and the Nasdaq on April 5 and there hasn’t been much of a dip for the BTFD crowd, so the bulls have not made any money either.

    1. ras

      It was a minor bounce for oil and oil stocks. Stopped cold at declining 50 day ma. Reversal candles in key oil stocks at 50 da ma. gush poked its nose a nanometer above 50 day ma twice. It was smashed down on the second foray.

  19. Don

    Apple. Google, Facebook, Amazon, have been well above their 200 DMA for quite some time. I wonder how much of the trillions the ECB and BOJ have printed ended up in those four heavy hitters?

    1. Pedestrian

      Yes, gold broke just slightly above its resistance level and I take that as a positive. Even a few cents makes a difference. The only question for me is how long it takes for gold to break through 1300. I would love to see it do that for todays close.

  20. 1970confused

    GDXJ has been a disaster, I wonder how much longer this GDXJ/JNUG will continue to under perform compared to GDX and Gold???!!! How long will this re-balancing of the junior index take. At some point they will have to start buying the new underlying stocks being put into the index right? Not sure if i’m totally understanding what the hell is going on but seems to me that investing /gambling with the miners always end up being wrong. When GDXJ 200% shot up early last year we did not have any of these problems, wwhy now….more manipulation by the big banks to scare people form investing in this space!

  21. Gary Post author

    We exited our DUST trade ahead of the weekend uncertainty.

    The metal portfolio is back at +154%.

    I’ll wait to see what happens this weekend and determine if the gold cycle is likely to keep stretching a little further before deciding if I want to do anything else with the metals for now.

    1. Ralph Wiederzane

      Gary,

      Is that 154% since the beginning of the portfolio, and how long has it been in existence? Or is it trailing 12 months? I am sure it’s not year to date since GDX is only up 27% or so.

      1. Gary Post author

        Two year running total.

        The trolls love to focus on every losing trade we have. They ignore anytime we get a win. Over the last two years we have steadily grown the metals portfolio contrary to what the fleas would like everyone to believe.

      1. Gary Post author

        Keep in mind that market is just in an intermediate decline. It’s not topping. There is no impending bear market coming. At least not this year.

          1. Gary Post author

            I don’t have any idea how the French elections might effect the markets early next week.

            They aren’t going to topple the global markets over into a recession though.

          2. Pedestrian

            Gary, is the linked post your work?

            Its kind of curious because that is exactly what I was talking about earlier in the day with a tiny breakout showing at the weekly chart level. If anyone was wondering what the chart that I referred to looks like then this is close enough.

            https://goldtadise.com/?p=401064

          3. Gary Post author

            Not me.

            I tend to think gold will churn back and forth around that line for maybe the rest of the year.

  22. Goild

    There is was a spike at 1:15 PM. Kind of foretelling what can come.
    A big run up can start at 2:00 PM, 2:30 PM or 3:30 PM.
    Usually when everybody is already giving up.

  23. dboz

    I don’t even care any longer. This sector has whipsawed and tore me up so bad. It’s only money. Easy come, easy go. Someday, maybe these miners will elevate in price. Seems like down is all they know. They are historically ridiculously cheap, but there is just no sentiment to own them or their products. Until that day comes, the pain is probably going to get worse. BITCOIN seems to be where the action and trust lies. Gold never moves and silver is a disaster.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’ll say it again: the sector is stuck in a basing pattern and probably will be for the rest of the year. Very difficult trading during these.

      Wait for sentiment extremes at cycle lows before buying long. Buying long 30 days into a daily cycle is crazy. Only do so if you are day trading and plan to get out by end of day.

    1. dboz

      Could happen, that means miners are really tanking. That also means we are in a downtrend. That also means we are making lower lows. Metals may be bullish, miners have not shown anything to say they are bullish. They did not follow gold up at all and had a horrific decline in early Feb. So another horrific decline here after minimal to no gains since would spell doom to getting anyone on board to drive the prices up. People will just stay away. It is a dead sector with putrid volume and sideways to down trading. We had a nice 6 months up in 2016 and a nice 6 weeks up in 2017. That’s it.

      1. Pedestrian

        I’m out of JNUG.

        Dullest two days of the past year. A really big snoozer. I ended up selling for the price I paid so no loss, but no gain either. I really had no choice since its a rule of ours to not hold over weekends and my wife expects me to stick to the rules (she’s a better trader so she wins).

        On the bright side, I get a fresh start come Monday and no cold sweats over the weekend! 🙂

      2. Pedestrian

        And a follow up note on that trade. In all fairness there were some reasons to keep it because it still looks like its basing however I also had some doubts I could not shake off and I stink at judging politics which can add unpredictability to the mix.

        But its not all bad news.

        Recall I wrote that when you buy the support line you often have ample opportunity to walk away in one piece without taking a loss if the trade does not work out. Ironically enough this was a perfect example as price kept bouncing around in a thin range for two days.

        So risk minimization is important. If you can’t make money you sure as hell don’t want to lose any either. And that’s why following a set of trading rules is important no matter how stupid it sounds at first reading.

  24. primetime

    Should be a good week for Americans next week….debt ceiling debate with biggest tax cuts ever…plus obama care repeal now. You think this may be optimistic? Stocks to the moon!

  25. Rapunsel

    Last five times JNUG has hit the lower Bollinger it dropped a minimum of 30% from the price level at the point of contact with the lower band. No guarantee that it does it again. So if we first hit that lower band at roughly 6 and we make a projection based on the past five performances, we should see at least 4 before the bloodletting in GDXJ is over.

    This is somewhat similar to the Eenie, Meenie, Minie, Moe Method.

  26. Rapunsel

    Would like to see JNUG drop within a range 4.26 – 3.90. If so I will be doing some buying. We will see.
    On a spike low we could see 3.6
    Of course this is all speculation based on past performance.

    1. dboz

      Good news. That means miners will be cheaper than in December when gold was over 100 cheaper and just above Jan 2015 lows when gold was almost 200 cheaper. Makes perfect sense. The more the product, the higher the profit, the less they should be worth. Wish I would have never stepped foot in this sector. Most manipulated and controlled I have ever seen.

      All, just walk away and leave. This is a battle we can’t win. Bulls have been clubbed over and over. Go short like Gary. Easy money. Shorts are constantly rewarded. There is no up side. Any gains are retraced with double losses. Any bullish setup does not materialize.

      The Feb crash was evidence of that. Monkey hammered bulls when spot was escalating. Kept rising and miners keep dropping. Lower and lower.

      I chose this. It’s just the reality.

      Gary, if you are going to swing trade again, good job as you will be correct. Short term trend swing trades for a few weeks works. Buy and hold does not work. The miners cannot be in a bull market. A bull market would have upside and you could buy dips and see rewards. We can only sell rallies. Classic Bear market action. Any dips turn into bigger dips, turn into Cascades, turn into run stops, turn into decimation of any position.

      There is no volume as everyone can see the pattern and action. Stay away. Day trading, as you say works well. The last time we saw any substantial upside is already 3 months ago.

      I will wait for one more uptick​, if one even comes, then time to bail and take out what I can. The huge downside over 2-3 dollar spot drops is amazing. Sell any rips. If I treated it like a bear, it would be easier. Sell on up days, it always comes back to the ground floor. No reason to fear missing out. It never happens.

      It seems too easy to be a short.

      1. dboz

        JNUG holders from 23 only need 400% at this point to get positive. Nearly a year later.

        If the SM is going to explode there is zero case to be made that would drive gold or silver higher.

        Just give me one more run up in miners to get out so I can roll over and buy at the all time highs on the NASDAQ. That trade is rock solid.

        If they can’t crash spot, they will crush the miners. I imagine the spot crash is coming though.

  27. Goild

    The trading rules are there to protect one from oneself.
    During trading the mind may not work as when it is under no pressure and trading mistakes are easily done.
    What is difficult is to obey the rules.
    It is good to have a wife with a tight leash to keep one in check.
    Without restrain one breaks the rules.

    Have a nice weekend.

  28. Strike

    OK – I’ll try to get this out there again. Last week I tried and was told my reasoning was “goofy.” Since then JNUG way underperformed NUGT as I implied it would. Despite the “goofy” comment, I’ll try again.

    Since earlier in April JNUG has been toxic and will remain so until after the flush in June. Everyone here has kept trading it despite its huge underperformance to its natural beneficiary NUGT. That includes Goild and pedestrian, who each would have done way better this week had they switched to NUGT for the time being. Everyone needs to read this and reread until the light bulb goes on and stays lit.

    https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8292/junior-mining-sector-about-implode

    Maybe after the June flush JNUG will be the 3x of choice. I would think so unless it craters structurally.

    1. Pedestrian

      Thank you very kindly Strike. I was unaware of all the repercussions in that instrument until I had read the report you linked. It is indeed setting off some alarms and I now understand better why JNUG was inexplicably flat for two days when ordinarily it offers high beta. I am looking into switching as you suggest. We will see next week. Do you or anyone else have a list of the stocks being sold and the rebalancing to new stocks so I might know what companies are being dumped/bought?

    2. RTTPD

      Great article. I am curious…..do you or Ped or anyone else believe that miners like KGC/AUY now seemingly with greater exposure after the rebalancing, will see thier prices move higher?

      GPL has nose-dived….and now it makes sense!

      1. Pedestrian

        Stock prices will be affected during the rebalancing. So fresh demand for any individual company can affect its price as the GDX and JNUG people acquire millions of those stocks and conversely the shares of those being dumped could (and should) be negatively affected. I will be interested in looking at what was shed since a fast disposal will depress prices artificially and there might be good buys to be had once the selling has completed.

  29. zkotpen

    Alex,

    When in May were you looking for the YCH in gold?

    I’ve been leaning toward that same conclusion lately & today goofing off with some channels on the gold chart has been quite revealing.

  30. Gary Post author

    Gold is overdue for a DCL. I suspect stocks are going to rally into the FOMC meeting and that would be gold’s opportunity to drop into its DCL.

    After that I think stocks need to give us a deeper move down to complete a true ICL. That would be gold’s opportunity for maybe a double top before starting its ICL decline.

      1. Gary Post author

        I suspect we have a deeper ICL still ahead, maybe in late May, before the next big trending move. I may do either a video or article on it later today.

  31. Goild

    Strike,

    Thank you for bringing up that article. It shows the kind of analysis someone interested/dedicated can do.
    It has good information.

    When the time is right JNUG will be bright again and the cycle will repeat. It is all about making money.

    However, currently I agree that JNUG’s outlook is very grim. Looing at JNUG chart for the past 5 years, it can find itself again into a long period of stagnation. We have been noting JNUG’s weakness vs. NUGT.
    An interesting comment you made is that NUGT is the beneficiary. JNUG’ s candles are becoming shorter, and shorter, but volume in JNUG has been significant in the last weeks. JNUG is a money making machine, and it must be traded along with JDST. As long as there is volatility with both of them one can get a lot of money.

    I gather that making money across the market is becoming quite challenging, there is hardly easy money in sight.

  32. Alexandru Popovici

    Dear ZKOT,
    As I commented previously, I see a high probability of USX bottoming (YCL) on approx MAR23 (after EU GDP reps and before US’).
    Thus, gold could top several days before, maybe right before EU GDP reports.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      …there is a tail-comment to all this, though, on USX, which correlates well with my previous comment up here on Crude Oil, wehre I was addressing to Gary.
      thus we have:
      1) USX’ prior YC was only 8 months long (AUG2015-MAY2016) –> thismay imply that the current YC may be …somewhat stretched, thus YCL not in May but in June/Jully to even the average number of months per YC.
      and
      2) as I was pointing Gary up here: Crude maaaay, just maaay have put its ICL on MAR22. If so indeed, then we are pretty early in the new IC on week 4 instead of week 22 which would give crude oil still plenty of weeks to find its next ICL to be also the YCL.
      NB: this assumption is corrobirated by the right-translated NATGAS current DC but disavowed by the CRB Index which is still clearly in the same IC, week 22.

      We have to see….maybe the next thing to follow is whether NATGAS negates its right-translation by failing in its DC (lower low).

  33. primetime

    All of this is called “Weekend Worrying”! It is what makes investors get out of great positions in a panic. They get emotional sitting around all weekend, worrying about their stocks while the kids drive them nuts and the old lady wont stop nagging. I have continued to pick up First Mining Finance and Panther on the cheap. It may not pay tomorrow, or the next week, but eventually it will and big money will be made. Of course ETFs must rebalance, who cares about rebalance if money is pouring into them? In the end an investor in these companies will be rewarded. Conservatively, you think these companies cant make coin at $50 silver and $2000 gold?

    1. RTTPD

      I hear you PT….I sold 20k shares of GPL for 2.17 a few months back….. and over the last couple of days have reaquired the same 20k shares for an average of 1.35. I ‘ll have no problem waiting for them bust 2 bucks again.

  34. Goild

    Christian,

    As per the wife…

    You allow a wife to do anything (legal) she likes.
    As a trader, it all depends on what you are trading for.
    My wife is young and beautiful, so she gets away with quite a lot.
    Also a happy wife means a happy life :).

  35. zbigkid

    Now is actually 100 times worse than 1929, 2000, or 2008.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-22/last-time-happened-market-crashed
    “A few days ago Charles Schwab, the investment brokerage firm, announced that the number of new brokerage accounts soared 44% during the first quarter of 2017.More specifically, Schwab stated that individual investors are opening up stock trading accounts at the fastest pace the company has seen in 17 years.” 17 years. Anyone remember what happened 17 years ago?

    Why is it way worse now? Because none of those markets had been propped up by anything close to the $100 trillion in QE that has been created out of thin air since 2008. There was more QE activity the past few weeks, than there has been since QE started. Its just that it is no longer reported or tracked by MSM, and so the proppage that is going on, is beyond the comprehension level of society at large.

    Last year was a flat GDP here in US at 1.6%, and worse globally. So earnings are actually far worse today relative to GDP, and relative to all the QE that has pumped those earnings up by injecting completely unsound levels of credit into the global system. The return on that $100 trillion in QE, is horrid, and is exponentially getting worse by the day.

    When the collapse comes, and it will especially here in the US, it will be so incredibly steep, and of such profound and pro-longed depth, that it will be an extinction level event. Society as we knew it before the event, will never be re-kick-started in any one living now, live-time’s. The number of people on the planet will drop by more than 60%. Mostly due to starvation, but also due to war between the declining ’empires.’ The US will be the most significant victim, as it has the most to lose, and also has created the most enemies. The US is fighting wars on so many fronts and is so thinly dispersed, that there is now no amount of money that can be created to keep the military from imploding. Trump’s insistence that the military be made strong again, and the corresponding budget increases, will be the nail in the proverbial coffin in terms of the survival of our nation financially. QE cannot be created without external creditors willing to buy our existing debt, and the same goes for all western societies such as Japan and the EU.

    You can trade and pretend all you want,that we could see a further parabolic index rise yet to come before the implosion, but the same emotional component that keeps you in this market, whether its trading, or intermediate term holding, will also prevent you from being wiped out when the collapse occurs. You cannot seperate your emotions from what you believe to be ‘objective’ or ‘technical’ parameters. You don’t know this because you all continue to follow Gary, or others like him, with the same confirmation bias that will make you one of the victims during the impending crash.

    Your search for signs of ‘euphoria’ is the wrong search, because we are well past that stage of being able to detect it correctly, after the first two major wipe outs in 2000 and 2007/2008. You cannot use the traditional metrics or signs, because they have been removed by the functionality of QE, which is to remove the appearance of risk, but is NOT removing risk itself. In fact, QE only magnifies the risks that existed prior to the events that caused its use. That is the false siren and lure of such warped and unethical monetary policy. The last retail sector re-joining en masse which includes those giving it another shot, and those who were exposed the first two times bc they wren’t born or too young, or too ‘poor’, will be the very last sector or contingent of current global society to ever ‘invest’ in stocks or bonds for the next 100 years. Stock and bond markets as currently structured will never be allowed to exist again once this next collapse completes.

      1. Gary Post author

        All that QE has to create a bubble first.

        We clearly are no where near bubble conditions yet. Nothing has rallied at least 100% in a year or less. People aren’t bragging about how much they made in the stock market at restaurants. Day traders aren’t getting rich yet.

        The Nasdaq is setting up to meet that requirement over the next year or so though.

        The magnitude of that 15 year breakout is huge and like you said the trillions in QE is the fuel to drive one hell of a bubble.

        1. zbigkid

          They won’t get to ‘bragging’ but actually its coming close, as there is a lot of talk amongst lay people these days. I’m out in the field daily in front of clients, and here stuff that while a bit more muted than the pre-2000 and pre-2008 crashes, resembles about as gushing as they are prone to get after two complete wipe outs. They have talk of ‘recovering’ from those wipe outs and then some. I just laugh. Suckers-R-Us is still the mantra. People just never really swore off stocks, at any of the so called bottoms. P/E’s were way too high at those ‘bottoms’ and there simply was not anywhere close to the desperation and swearing off. I’m talking about generational avoidance of stocks and bonds. That never happened at all. It was more like very temporary amnesia.

        2. jacob2

          Gary, looking forward to the SM blow off phase as I’m very long old turkey (years). Life is good. Commodities however AWOL all recent rallies. Oil and gold not much to cheer about. Wondering if were only half way through a commodity bear market?

    1. zbigkid

      here is a stunning fact from Credit Suisse:”Barely a quarter into 2017, year-to-date retail store closings have already surpassed those of 2008.”

      According to the Swiss bank’s calculations, on a unit basis, approximately 2,880 store closings were announced YTD, more than twice as many closings as the 1,153 announced during the same period last year. Historically, roughly 60% of store closure announcements occur in the first five months of the year. By extrapolating the year-to-date announcements, CS estimates that there could be more than 8,640 store closings this year, which will be higher than the historical 2008 peak of approximately 6,200 store closings, which suggests that for brick-and-mortar stores stores the current transition period is far worse than the depth of the credit crisis depression. (we’re actually in a depression, yet we don’t even know it, as a lot of the traditional knock on effects, are masked by QE )

Leave a Reply