72 thoughts on “Gold – DCL NEXT WEEK?

  1. Christian

    Does it have to turn into a left translated cycle..? Or could Gold deliver a very convincing right translated cycle before dropping into an ICL?

    1. Gary Post author

      Well there are always exceptions to every rule, but most of the time there is at least one left translated daily cycle into the ICL.

      Even the ICL in May last year managed to produce a failed daily cycle, even during the baby bull rally.

  2. cazabrujas

    Thanks for the video, Gary. I will wait for the first bounce you mentioned and get into DUST before the big move down. I would look to get in on this drop, but I feel insecure with the whole North Korea thing looming. Maybe the situation will be clearer in a couple of weeks.

    1. Bill in Tokyo

      Great educational video.

      So the upcoming DCL won’t be the ICL … that’ll come this summer, perhaps as late as July?

      Would appreciate you pointing me to a chart of $GOLD where you have ICL’s lined out over a longer timeframe, like 10 or so yrs. Am really curious now if these ICL’s are regular enough to trade by.

      Also, is a ICL the same as a YCL, or does a year have many ICL’s in it? Would love to see if YCL’s are regular on a 20 yr chart or something.

      Thanks again.

      1. Robert

        Remember this is not set in stone because if gold is in a new bull market which it could be then maybe these ICL are not going to be as powerful. I am looking back on golds chart and im seeing that when gold started its bull run these ICLs are not nearly as damagin as they have been since 2011 top

      2. Gary Post author

        Usually two ICL’s a year. One in the late spring or summer and one in the late fall or winter.

  3. primetime

    Thank you for the video and clarity, and your understanding of the current status of the gold market.

  4. jacob2

    Fwiw: agree, sold miners in mid Febuary and won’t buy again until July. This seasonal pattern has stood the test and of time. Feel vindicated for not wasting my time choppimg around with the miners as there have been much better things to own. The risk reward of buys in july for miners is exceptional.

  5. Goild

    Thanks Gary for the video. Yes, the tendency is to buy early. Most people are impatient. Including myself.
    With the current NK/US situation GOLD may hang up there till that situation resolves.
    Gold coming down means more pain for the miners, so there might be pressure to keep gold up.
    A much deeper decline like the one prior to the rate hike appears unlikely.
    While cycle theory may have a place, channels are more ubiquitous and Gold appears to have hit support at the channel trend line.
    Further, there is other support around $1260 and so one would not expect to see gold below such support.

  6. Goild

    As a note and for more precise charting the gold charts in investing.com are more reliable as they run 24 hrs. Gold has already well gone through the lower channel trend line.

  7. Goild

    The last two days Gold has hit $1266 and this suggests that a double top or a sideway walk may be also in play.

    1. Gary Post author

      Wait for gold to get into the timing band for the low rather than to pick a price that you think will trigger the bottom. The two most likely events that could trigger the DCL are the FOMC meeting (most likely IMO) or the employment report.

      I wouldn’t expect a bottom before that.

      Plus remember that DCL’s have to break technical support levels. That is what causes the selling panic that washouts out bullish sentiment and creates the bottom. We just temporarily run out of sellers.

  8. zkotpen

    Arends,

    Mack Dee has negative predictive value for me… it clouds my forecast.

    Much as I wanted to, tried to like it… gave it 3 separate tries on 3 separate occasions, each separated by several months from the others… it just confounded my work.

    Just as I will meet my maker without ever having finished a novel by Charles Dickens, so, too, shall I live out this life without the benefit of Mac Dee!

    1. zkotpen

      Speaking of which, so, too, is my last Bic Mac from Mac Dee’s also in the past ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ˜‰ ๐Ÿ™‚

  9. Goild

    Good morning,

    Another bad day for gold…
    We will find ways to make money today.
    Good trading to all.

  10. LiesandDamnLies

    Independently agreed with Gary and sold 80% of my Aussie miners 3 days ago. I sold most of my Aussie SM stocks on Dec 29 and used the money to top up four Aussie gold miners. Both sides of that action worked out well.

    So my rough prediction has some similarities with Gary again. I have gold and the my miners falling into the range late May early June with one good bounce half way.

    If it works out I will buy the Aussie miners back again around that time and ride them to late July. Then bail out again as I think gold and miners will fall into late Sept & Oct.

    If all the above is correct I will be getting into my Aussie Gold Miners around October again for a great long ride well into 2018 albeit with a couple of corrections ( one maybe the santa rally in stocks) along the way.

    Notice I don’t EFT’s or the multipliers just the stock. It Enough. I sleep well.

    cheer Lies

    1. LiesandDamnLies

      All of my previous comments assume that the worlds dumb arse leaders don’t start a huge battle in the next year.

      One hopes

  11. Gary Post author

    Watch the Russell. It has a much bigger consolidation box than the Nasdaq did. When this one breaks out it should deliver a very nice rally.

  12. Gary Post author

    Short term sentiment should be pretty extreme on miners if we close at the lows today. That should trigger a 1-2 day reaction. That would be the spot to enter shorts if one is so inclined.

    1. Robert

      ?? So your saying that today could be the daily cycle low then in miners and then a bounce for 2 days to start the new cycle?

    2. Christian

      Yep. I see a low risk trade set up for Bulls interested in a day trade. GDX is just about to bounce off the bottom of the triangle and DUST is just about to bump up against Resistance @32.

      Although momentum is not currently on your side; Gary’s right we should get a reaction soon to counteract extreme sentiment ๐Ÿ™‚

  13. 1970confused

    Gary I would say this is the blood bath phase for the junior miners yes!? Down 9 straight days what a joke…no bull market here

    1. Gary Post author

      That should come during the next daily cycle.

      I’ve been trying to warn everyone that the banks are setting up the miners to run the stops below the Dec. lows during the summer ICL. Everyone was busy trying to fabricate reasons for why the miners underperformance didn’t matter. It does matter. The manipulation in the metals sector has moved into the miners because the banks can’t get busted twice intervening in the metals futures. If they did someone would probably have to go to jail.

      They can short miners as heavily as they like with no legal consequences though.

  14. 1970confused

    The miners have been going down for almost 2 straight weeks and the $BPGDM has not budged, another bullshit indicator

    1. Gary Post author

      Abandon any attempt to rationalize something bullish. That’s how traders get stuck on the slope of hope.

      When the sector is ready to complete it’s ICL everyone will be panicked and fed up with the sector. Just like they were in December. Wait till we see that kind of sentiment again before attempting any more long trades.

  15. 1970confused

    Why continue to short the miners after they have been killed over the last 6 years, it does not make sense to kill the sector like this??????

    1. Gary Post author

      It makes complete sense. The lower they can drive them before the bottom the bigger the rally will be.

      Look at the baby bull rally. That was solely a product of the manipulation forcing the sector as low as possible.

      The banks are going to try to engineer another baby bull rally. In order to do that they need to crush the sector a second time.

  16. MattyMan

    JDST got to my target from a previous pivot of $20, so I cashed in! +37% ๐Ÿ™‚

    I don’t think the sell-off in miners is over yet, so I’ll be looking to get back into JDST at a better price…

  17. Rapunsel

    Agree with Gary in regards to the Banks manufacturing an optimum buy point. However right now is looking like Dec of 2015 isn’t it?

  18. Ralph Wiederzane

    Now it’s time to do a little more buying, in my opinion. I do think we are going lower quite possibly in GDX, but have to buy em some time and I do not think we will take out the December lows. If that occurred it would stop me out and would have to look for another opportunity to load up, but that could take 6 months or more zas the moving averages are starting to bend down now.

    1. Christian

      Ralph — I dunno why you insist on buying bud. And you keep coming up with this rationale that, by the way, is only losing you money right now. Yes, I know.. you’ll wanna point out how much money you made in 2016 blah blah blah! But the point that I’m trying to make is this: Stop buying on the way down, which you have been.. and instead, load up when Gold hits the next ICL.

      1. Ralph Wiederzane

        LOl, coming from the guy that can’t afford to get on the inside of the site. You’ve been out here for years, cough up the price of admission, bud!

        1. Christian

          Cough up the price of admission? What the F* are you talking about?! Lol. I have! Several times over the years.. I don’t always need to be on the inside, meaning it’s important to switch it up sometimes.

          And what does that got to do with you buying when you should be waiting on the sidelines for the right opportune time?

          Here I am giving you smart advice and you gotta turn into a dumbass. Shame.

          1. Ralph Wiederzane

            Buzz off, I wasn’t talking with you to begin with. Until we compare brokerage statements, you’re just another anonymous jerk off on the internet, just like me.

          2. Christian

            Oooooooh Ralph. I’m only a jerk when others are being jerks, other than that I’m pretty fun to be around. And I don’t give a damn about your brokerage statement ๐Ÿ™‚ This is not a penis competition, even if sometimes it feels like it.

          3. Pedestrian

            Another tasteless comment from our local caveman. Bet you are a barrel of laughs in mixed company.

        2. bill

          Ill call you out Ralph lets see your spread sheets…Christian was being friendly you on the other hand are being a dick.

  19. Ralph Wiederzane

    If the manipulation has moved to miners, I wonder if Gary will forego them the next time its time to get long metals, and instead stick to gold and silver?

    Personally, I don’t think the manipulation is any more or less than it ever was, nor that it has moved to miners form metals. Price action changes at times, but if gold is going to rocket then the miners will go for the ride I think, so it’s splitting hairs which to trade.

    I also don’t think GDX will break it’s March lows as GDXJ just did, or not by much anyway, more like a false breakdown.

  20. primetime

    Gary,

    “The banks are trying to engineer another baby bull rally. In order to do that they need to crush the sector a second time.”

    and a third and a fourth and a fifth and a sixth and a seventh and and eighth……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………lets then hope the baby bull rally will be yuuuuuge.

    There is no bull market in the miners sector period. It is not correlated with pm spot either. Let’s get over the hype and lofty predictions.

    What happen to the bull market suprising to the upside?

    1. primetime

      The mining sector is not acting anything like it did in December. There is no action or buying at all. The sector is dead to any upwards movement of spot.

  21. dboz

    Anyone who thought we were in a bull market in miners and this was to be a great opportunity is kidding themselves (me). Lower highs and lower lows is BEAR market behavior.

    There is no way there is going to be any rally to bail out any longs.

    Miners are busting below December lows already and we have not even dropped on spot yet. 2015 lows are coming. Too late for me. I am permanently stuck. Can’t get out of last fall trades. Those were not even bad buys. I just failed to realize we had a strong Bear market rally. Back to full blown Bear market now. Can’t believe how many sellers are still left.

    Really seeing no scenario that would bring in anyone to actually place money and invest in this sector. It’s a day traders paradise. Even better if you like to short. Shorting is a guaranteed trade in miners. Any upside at all is abruptly terminated and followed by massive shorting. There is no money moving in. There will not be any money moving in. Spot is going to collapse next. Spot is range bound and has been for years. The sector is too small which makes is super easy to dominate price by the big dogs.

    I am raising the white flag and giving up. Dollar down again, gold down again, miners way down again.

    Can’t believe I was gullible enough to get lured into the pump and dump in miners. It’s going to take a very long time to ever get myself back to even.

    What a bottomless pit of garbage.

  22. Don

    The disconnect continues between the dollar and crude, gold , silver. This has been going on for over a week. Unusual.

  23. Gary Post author

    I warned everyone weeks ago that the banks were going to do this to the miners.

    Be smart enough to follow behind them and then seizes the opportunity in a month or two that they are going to create. That will be the best buying opportunity of the year.

    1. Christian

      A job well done Gary..! Boy is it ever quiet on the board today โ€” it’s kinda nice ๐Ÿ˜Š

    2. dboz

      Yes, you did. Very nice!!! You are out so that works good for trading, for investing, does not help at all. Only option is to sell and take a huge loss and hope to buy back in at a later date.

      I see no reason to follow, who are the buyers going to be? Retail has been scorched twice now. Unless big money moves in to buy penny stocks, which they won’t, retail is long gone and not coming back. They killed the sentiment. 6 years of pent up bear and all we got was 6 months and then 6 weeks. Sorry, just not seeing it any longer. To get money in you have to have sustained and stable growth with a bull market trend. Not there and not going to happen any time soon.

      Where is the fuel? The dollar already made a big move down, gold did not respond. What will drive gold? Real rates are rising, what’s the gold driver? Stock market is stable and setting new highs daily, what’s the driver? Geopoloitics are worse now than the 1960’s, no fear, what’s the driver? We know commercial shorts are at all time highs, they are all going to get burnt on a huge gold or silver breakout? Since when.

      Not arguing, just not seeing the why or how. The opportunity was there and passed by. Could take years to get the right setup going again. We are getting close to a year already since the last high was set. No new high since, now heading down to new lower lows. Who is going to invest in that other than swing and day traders looking for another bounce for a few weeks out of horrible oversold conditions?

        1. dboz

          So, what’s that have to do with the price of tea in China? Did I say anything about any of those?

        2. Pedestrian

          Dday, investing is about making money. Trading is a way to making that money. It does not matter if its fast or slow as long as the result is the same and at the end of the day and your account has appreciated above yesterday. Who cares if the method is low risk with a 1.5% per annum yielding bond or an ETF that offers a beta of 10% daily?

          Seriously, I don’t know why everyone gets so hung about the terminology.

  24. primetime

    This site is all second, minute, hour, and day traders. No longs. They preach about what not to do, but the next day or week they do just that. Their timing is always perfect!

    1. Pedestrian

      Indeed. If it was less than perfect you would have trouble getting ahead. What problem do you have that some people strive for accuracy. This is the jungle man. This spoils go to those who can outwit the cavemen in the crowd.

  25. primetime

    They talk about stress and sleeping at night, but they are a bundle of nerves. Constantly on the edge making hasty calls. Why not find good companies with broken stocks or sectors and buy and hold for the long haul, especially if the stocks are going to the moon and gold is going to 5000 and JNUG is going to 500 as Gary says.

    1. primetime

      Sometimes I have to pause the video, because I am laughing uncontrollably. When I watched the above video the wife was like “What is wrong” I was laughing so hard. I said nothing is wrong, Gary just predicted 5000 gold again!

  26. Pedestrian

    JDST is just hitting its 200 day MA and ready to fall back
    http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=jdst&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

    OK that;s enough for now. Try it just as i have done. When you are looking for an answer about a directional change you need to do a quick test across a variety of charts. NEVER rely on a single chart to get your answers. When you have confirmation from multiple sources you are better armed to go into the next trade.

    Rule # 4: When playing leveraged products ALWAYS use them in pairs. That means you load JDST and JNUG on your screens at the same time because one will give the buy signals and the other the sell signals. Anyone trying to use 3X products without employing its sister fund is just asking for trouble. You need cross confirmations at all times and that reduces your risk substantially.

    Happy trading to all. Hope these tips are helpful.

    1. KHT

      HA!! I thought I invented #4 on my own, oh well, at least i`m doing something right. Thanks for the charts and advise Ped!! Good stuff. Anyway. Sold my DSLVs for a nice pop earlier. Now I am very quick on the trigger with any shorts. A reversal can happen any second. Looking forward to getting long again!! Kinda scared off on JNUG right now. Thats one dangerous animal.

  27. jesselivermore

    Hi Gary,
    two questions:

    – has jnug bottomed on your opinion?
    – do you see lower prices coming?

    Cause my indicators suggest higher prices coming!

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