46 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY – OIL

  1. mchawe

    If it goes up from there, it will probably have to go down again to (nearly) test the downtrend line. So don’t get too excited unless that happens.

  2. Goild

    Why OIL is going up?

    1 It tagged the lower trend line of its channel.
    2 Volume on ERX, XLE, USO show a meaningful increase last week.
    3. GOLD is reversing,.

  3. Gary Post author

    I think it probably just boils down to the dollar. After a 6 month decline the dollar should be about ready to bounce for awhile.

    Last year the YCL came in May. We’re about to move into July so it’s definitely due.

  4. Goild

    My take on the USD as reflected on UUP is that it first will hit the daily averages which are descending. This coincides with the upper trend line of its descending channel. Then it will go back to its lower channel trend line at $95. There USD may bounce. There is some correlation between UUP and TNX. TNX is threatening to break support and might pull down USD.

    We shall see.

    1. Gary Post author

      Sentiment on the 10 year is at extreme bullish levels not seen since July of last year.

      The Blees rating on the 10 year COT is at a maximum bearish level of 0.

  5. Goild

    In this business it does not pay to be with the losers.
    The play should be to get in LABU, in a jiffy it can reach $100.
    The smart money might be involved and it can be a rocket to the moon.
    The weekly chart shows it to be a rocket’s pedestal. Volume has not taken the strength of other instances.
    One can think of shorting it when volume reaches 30-50 M in the weekly chart.
    The current LABU weekly picayune volume of 11M is nothing in view of a volume of 120M in a typical JNUG week say.
    Good lock!

  6. jacob2

    QID. 2x short NAZ

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

    June is the 10th anniversery of the start of the financial crisis. Bear Sterns had 2 of it’s hedge funds go under and really got the whole thing rolling. 2009 QID was seliing at almost 1900 dollars a share and today 16 and change. MY plan this week is sell some tech raise a little cash and buy a little QID. Isn’t qid British for money? KNow absolutely nothing and superstitous to boot.

  7. earthkitten

    Golid. I bought Friday because I have not seen something as
    overbought as LABU in a long time. Check out the slow stochs.
    Much more downside than upside.

  8. Goild

    earthkitten,

    There was a discussion months ago in that overbought does not mean a reverse.
    I hope you are right and make money on this. It can be a false breakout in view of the still low volume.
    Have a solid stop loss just in case.

  9. zkotpen

    Upward pattern on XBI (Biotech) looks incomplete.

    Still trading above the bollinger band, and hasn’t even come close to pulling back to the 5 day SMA.

    In other words, it isn’t even testing the first lines of support yet.

    Once it does, then maybe it will be time to cash out of longs, and think of shorting — not clear if this is a countertrend rally, or the start of a new trend. I think it’s the former, but not sure.

    Meanwhile, still bullish biotech, at least for the current daily cycle. Looks more like a “hold” than a “buy” — still not a “sell” — much less not a “sell short”.

    1. zkotpen

      Calculate risk:reward, make sure it’s >3, abide by those calculations.

      If you win, good on you, if you lose, it’s the cost of doing business.

  10. zkotpen

    Must be hope-free and no directional bias.

    Earthkitten was impatient. Heck, I was impatient shorting GDX last week — but I did not make the same mistake regarding long USDJPY.

    And believe me, I am examining my own biases — asking myself: Why the hurry to act on miners, but a more strategic approach to dollar yen?

    There are some people on here who are still long on biotech, and/or just beginning to take profits — those people are exercising the right tech analysis and the right strategy — good for them! I congratulate those folks for making good decisions and NOT placing bets and hoping ๐Ÿ˜‰

  11. Goild

    Impatience is a common and prevalent trader’s disease.
    I got on board on USO early, as usual, it would have been easy to look at the descending channel and wait till
    USO tagged the lower trend line.

    Bad trading habit that needs to be weeded out.

  12. zkotpen

    Goild,

    Yes, I agree. Weird that I was impatient with shorting GDX, but not in going long USDJPY. The latter setup just hasn’t come yet. Nor has the former, actually.

    Maybe it has something to do with the whole gap thingy… “OMG — I might miss out!” which turns into “OMG — that was stupid, what I did yesterday!”

    But with the 24 hr market, I just wait, and watch. Study for a month. Get into the groove, and wait for the trade to come to me. If it doesn’t come, I don’t budge. End of story.

    I need to transfer that mindset to the 6h30m markets.

  13. Goild

    Zkot,

    I am thinking of starting to build a position on UVXY, say 500 shares. If it goes my way then double.
    It has a great potential.
    What do you think?

    ERX might be another place to build a position?

    1. Gary Post author

      I have to say that does look like manipulation today. 25,000 contracts dumped in the blink of an eye.

      I would suggest waiting for a close below 1241 before trying to sell short again.

  14. Ed

    Wht so amazing about these dumpings is they want to be as blatant as they can be. Just to show off they are in no fear of CFTC. Only NY FED trading drsk can do this stuff.

  15. Gary Post author

    This is why I keep stressing that you can’t trade metals solely by chart patterns. The big money will often paint the chart to entice retail traders and hedge funds to lean one way and set them up to get fleeced. They did it a couple of weeks ago with the phony rally and they did it last week only to fool you again.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m sure he had two or three alternate wave counts so he’ll claim to have called it perfectly.

      That’s the beauty of never actually making a call or just picking an entry and telling people to use a stop. Maybe subs should demand these newsletter writers actually run a real time portfolio and we’ll really see who’s swimming naked and who actually makes sustainable gains in the market. It’s not as easy as these guys like to make it seem.

  16. Steffmeister

    I told you about a bearfest this week in the last thread, major monkeyhammer pulled out by TPTB ๐Ÿ˜

    Bought Africa Oil for a multi year hold … waiting to add miners.

  17. zkotpen

    Gary,

    “This is why I keep stressing that you canโ€™t trade metals solely by chart patterns.”

    I couldn’t agree with you more. Chart patterns alone are full of ambiguity.

    Step one of scientific method: Define the problem. ๐Ÿ˜‰

  18. isavage

    “Someone” Dumps over $2 billion notional Gold, trading in a one-minute window.

    Looks like Gary is right again and the Cartel are painting the ABC correction he suggested.

  19. AT

    โ€œThe market remains clueless about this trigger.โ€

    https://www.reuters.com/article/global-precious-idUSL3N1JN1KI

    * Spot gold hits lowest since May 17
    * Hedge funds cut long position in COMEX gold for second
    week

    (Recasts, updates prices, adds quotes)
    By Nithin ThomasPrasad
    BENGALURU, June 26 Gold prices fell one percent
    to hit their lowest in near six weeks on Monday, amid a stronger
    dollar and rise in Asian shares, ahead of a flurry of U.S. data
    due this week.
    โ€œThis sharp depreciation, which lacks any fundamental
    drivers on a relatively quiet trading day has left investors
    bewildered,โ€ said Lukman Otunuga, research analyst, FXTM.
    โ€œWith the fundamentals out of the picture, price action may
    be the key culprit behind the decline,โ€ he added.
    Spot gold was down 1.2 percent at $1,241.89 per
    ounce, as of 0912 GMT, touching its lowest since May 17.
    U.S. gold futures for August delivery slipped 1.1
    percent to $1,243.10 per ounce.
    โ€œThe market remains clueless about this trigger. The sweep
    went through CME, 18,500 lots gold and 5,500 lots silver,โ€ said
    Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at MKS in Switzerland.

  20. isavage

    Goild

    If you want to play UVXY. You better hsve your fire extinguisher handy!

    You will recall I’m constantly holding UVXY over 6 years and cover on spikes and also am short in second brokerage account. It’s the ONLY way I have survived!

    We all know that things are madness v valuation or fundermenals. But I believe that Gary has a point that the Central banks can send the Indexes anywhere they choose.

    All the old measures have been abandoned when you have infinite new money buying.

    I’m believing in a potential 1987 sharp correction to sell UVXY in to. Then flip short in to Garys doubling from here.

    Only thing that will change that for me is a true black Swan event. USD crash, central bank loss of confidence etc…

    But as a trade and you being the “king of launch money” and rapid trading. I think you would enjoy play long / short game as I have.

    Hope this if interest

    Best regards from the UK

  21. Goild

    isavage,

    Thank you for the comments.
    I know almost nothing UVXY but the SVXY must stop sooner or later.
    Today UVXY has already about 4% drop and the bottom might be close.
    The potential is pretty good.
    I am thinking starting with 250 shares and see how it behaves.
    Oh London! Like to visit there again.

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