509 thoughts on “GOLD ICL STILL 6 TO 8 WEEKS AWAY

  1. Dang

    First!!!

    I’m a believer, this will be a second chance for me. I got greedy and held on past the top during the big run up. Not this time, I’m playing it by the numbers and not going to let my emotions get the best of me. I still made great money, but let my emotions win….all the stuff Gary talks about regarding emotions is true.

    Thanks Gary!

  2. Don

    Gary, you have been absolutely adamant about the miners testing their December lows. Frankly, your enthusiasm reminds me of your multiple calls for the biotechs to lead the SM to nirvana. That said, If we actually do test the Dec lows and then reverse back up, as you are predicting , then I will be very impressed. I will not hesitate to pay homage to what ever chest thumping exercise that may ensue. However, if there is no reversal, then not impressed. In that case your contention that we are in a new bull market will have been proven incorrect and anyone buying on your signal will be very unhappy as the miners crumble further into a resuming bear market.

    I am betting that the miners are in a bull market and that we will not get close to the Dec lows before reversing up, ultimately to new yearly highs. Gold is another matter as is conceivable that gold could flash crash to the Dec lows, perhaps during the thin hours of overnight trading, driven by a stop loss grab by the machines. Let’s see how it all unfolds.

    1. jskauai

      What will a continuation of the bear market do to the miners and then eventually to future supply? I tend to agree with Frank on his thought here…https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5Fj6fzeAbY
      Are the managers of our fiat monetary system not the brightest minds coming from the best Universities being paid to manage the system? Is the continuation of the bear market in precious metals/base metals in the systems best interest? IMO, I believe they are going to strive for the “Goldilock” playbook. How that will all play out is another story but that is where the smart trading can be employed.

      1. Gary Post author

        Gold is not in a bear market. It just needs a correction after a 6 month rally.

  3. zkotpen

    KHT,

    “Still in all, it works for me. My trades were profitable.”

    Bravo. I get the impression you have solid, successful trading experience. Also, as a good trader, you erred on the side of caution — a sure sign of somebody with a clearly thought out plan, and the ability to execute that plan.

    …but don’t confuse the issue πŸ˜‰

    Forecasting: One thing

    Trading: Another thing

    The two are related. Posterity will judge my forecasting abilities, which I continue to develop.

    As for trading, that’s the most in play for me. The area where I need to improve, and am trying to do so as quickly as possible.

    1. KHT

      Well….Thank you for the glowing endorsement. I admit I was delaying a response because I wanted it to remain that way before I brought reality to light….:) I may frame it and hang it over my monitor as a reminder in humility.

      My trading started as a baptism of fire as I completely totally burned an account (some $52k) down to the piers, dynamited the piers and left a smoking hole in the ground, (thank you Lucent, INKT, Yahoo etc), during the end of the tech bubble. Just prior to that anything I touched was making money and I had no clue what so ever what i was doing. I was loaded to the brim with LU out of the money call options, overweighted horrendously with the “Must Have Stock” as reported by Money magazine the very week it missed earnings by -.27/share. Lucent is no more and either was my trading until about 5 years ago.

      So yes, I do have experience and have also acquired an adverse reaction to giving profit back. The truth be told, I am a cave man compared to some people here when it comes to trading but this forum provides me with very valuable information that helps me understand what is happening with my charts. It is traders ranging from institutional to rank amateur novices that actually make the charts what they are and I pay attention to, and appreciate, what EVERYONE says here. Some provide me with confirmation of my research, some point me in a direction I haven`t explored , and some are (reliable) contrary indicators, while a few, as yourself, are way over my head, and don`t take that as a knock, I think it is a right brain left brain thing, but fwiw, I did adjust my lower triangle line today, so some things you say are leaking into my head….LOL.

      At the time of this writing it appears my sell decision yesterday is 50/50. DUST is down as GDX is headed back up into the triangle while dslv is up as silver is still falling. It`s ok. The point of shorting, for me anyway, is to pad the account for the long side where the real money is and when I am holding unrealized profits short, the short squeeze hangs over my head and I feel like a rabbit in a lush field of clover. When he knows the hawk is there, it is too late. So yes, I do have a plan.

      One quick thing. I have heard a few here mention they are paper trading to learn their trading craft. There is nothing wrong with that as i did it myself briefly way back when. Just consider though that paper trading vs trading with real money is different. Everything changes. Think of it like batting practice vs facing a live pitcher in a live game, the thing is, that 98 mph fast ball to move you off the plate won`t be up around your chin, it will be aimed at the middle of your forehead.

      just sayin…..

  4. zkotpen

    Robert, KHT,

    Have you thought about USDJPY?

    Robert in particular — thinking about gold — miners are one way to play gold with leverage, but as you can see, that correlation is weak to moderate.

    Dollar yen is around 80% negatively correlated on a daily basis, and above 90% intraday. I suspect a manifestation of that is, USDJPY has more “available overhead” than does XAUUSD “available footroom”. Dollar yen is currently trading about 2% below DCH resistance zone; XAUUSD is about 1.2% or so above DCL support area. Intraday, however, each is moving toward its respective 5 day SMA, with decreasing volatility. Hence, they are both more in tune on an intraday basis.

    Funny thing is, Monday I said I wasn’t buying USDJPY — actually, that buy would have been profitable. As I get more familiar with that chart, I will take such trades. For now, however, I await the pullback in USDJPY for a bigger move up, round the same time as gold moves down.

    How far down will miners go toward their DCL? If I figure that out, it will be a lucrative trade. If not, the USDJPY trade — as Robert points out in ‘just trading gold’ — appears much more straightforward.

    Miners nonsense, manipulation, blood, guts & drama — once again:

    The Gold Rush.

    It’s all there — exactly the same as we see in the markets. Chaplin & Co. go to the Yukon; we go to our computers — but we all find the same thing when we arrive — nothing has changed in essence, only the ever changing, impermanent forms πŸ˜‰

    1. Robert

      Hi Zkot yes the correlation is weak. This drop in gold miners has been very choppy. Perhaps until the USD gets a real impulsive upmove then thats what will really get miners to drop.

  5. Emptyness

    I appreciate Gary for his knowledge of the gold market. But in my opinion his cycle theory is much to inflexible. It’s no law of nature – therefore it will sometimes work, sometimes not. I don’t expect that it will work this summer. Gold 1160 – 1180 would be a BIG surprise, very unlikely.

  6. Ralph Wiederzane

    Gary sounds very confident in his gold prediction, then again he has been all wet on his oil call. Let’s hope he gets his groove back.

    1. Gary Post author

      Oh I’m going to be correct on my oil call. It’s just not happening as fast as the day traders here would like but it’s still going to happen and when it does we are going to make a lot of money on that call.

      All one has to do is get “close enough” and we have done that.

      1. Gary Post author

        Look at what the big three are doing. XOM, CVX & COP. They are telling you the final bottom is close.

      2. JJHarmen

        Like you are making so much money on DUST? That would be sweet for the guys who bought ERX on your first call for a bottom in oil.

  7. Goild

    Good morning,

    I hope that OIL’s bottom is near, and more for a very strong upswing.
    The problem is that oil has proven to defeat every analyst prediction. It can go back to the December 2016 lows for a big double bottom.

    1. Gary Post author

      But it’s too early in the 3 year cycle for that.

      This is what YCL’s do. They make traders think there is no scenario in which price can reverse.

      My goodness folks we’ve been through dozens of these. How many more will it take before you start to learn?

  8. Goild

    The bottom’s trend line points gold at about $1230.00.
    So it is reasonable to expect more pain.
    That would be a test point.
    A channel support line.

  9. Bigdaddy

    I am still up a little on SQQQ. Glad I got out of DUST, It looks like dog shit now. The biotechnology stocks are on the move again. Why are we not on them instead of dicking around with gold miners? Maybe we should be buying on dips. Stay tuned.

    1. Gary Post author

      Well if you knew bio was going to move then what were you waiting for?

      Personally I’m worried that politicians may do something stupid like try to regulate the sector so I’m content to stick with the safer play and just go with QQQ.

      I wouldn’t chase at the moment though. We’re too deep into the daily cycle.

      1. Bigdaddy

        Give me a break. How could I possibly have known? I just noticed them yesterday going up hard. If I knew everything then you would be out of a job. Not going to chase them, like i said, buy on dips.

  10. JJHarmen

    Nice to see GDX up a little. I have a big stake and would love to see it gain some traction.

    1. Don

      Silver is still in the dumps. I would like to see it “gain some traction” before I would get too excited about the miners. However, GDX being up is nice to see.

  11. Gary Post author

    Gold has tagged the declining 200 DMA. This is a potential spot for a dead cat bounce. But make no mistake, gold is going to follow the rest of the sector and break back below the 200.

    There’s still at least 4-8 weeks before the final bottom.

  12. Don

    Good morning to all. Looks like we have another day of the big five all up as well as tech and semis doing well. It would seem that the banks just can’t get enough of the same old thing.

  13. Don

    A lot of traders are losing their shirts on natural gas thinking it couldn’t possibly go any lower. I play NG but not until August to September and then again in February thru to the end of April. It’s a seasonal trade.

  14. AT

    I was hoping today DUST will move above $33 … I guess not this week.
    Funny how as soon as Gary posted the video saying Gold and miners are going down, they all reversed and went up.
    However, looking on the big picture he is probably right.

    Gary or Christian – Is $50 target for DUST in 2 – 3 weeks reasonable? Thanks.

    1. Gary Post author

      2 weeks is too soon. ICL’s last 6-8 weeks and this one has only just begun. It’s on week 3. So at least 3 more weeks and maybe 5 more.

      These are the bounces that keep bulls hoping and holding all the way to the bottom. It’s not called the slope of hope for nothing.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m already long and holding until the weekly stochastics become overbought again.

      We’ve gone through dozens of these ICL’s. You think you people would eventually learn…

      I guess that’s why most people never make any money in the market. No matter how many times something happens everyone always assumes “this time is different”.

      It’s never different. Every ICL in history occurred with everyone only looking for lower prices. They get locked into the bear mentality and then can’t buy when the turn comes.

      1. Bluebellkid

        We’ve gone through dozens of these ICL’s. You think you people would eventually learn…

        And what is you entry price on ERX??

  15. Robert

    In your opinion Gary has gold or the miners stuck a DCL y’day? It seems all the conditions are met: daily stochastic oversold as well as 5 day RSI. They are allrdy bouncing today and the miners were not really selling off with gold as it dropped. So maybe a 5 to 10 day bounce now for them

    1. Gary Post author

      I doubt it. The dollar should still have many days to rally yet. I think we’re just getting the bounce I warned about. This is why it’s so hard to make money on the short side. The counter trend moves convince everyone the bottom is in, they buy, then price rolls over again. Rinse repeat over and over until we finally get the big plunge that turns everyone bearish. Then they can’t buy when the bottom finally does come.

      Markets are devious for sure.

  16. Bigdaddy

    Holy sheep shit! Do you guys realize that the biotek ETF (LABU) has gone from $50 to $65 in just FOUR friggen days? We must be retarded trying to pick up pocket change on SQQQ. ERX , GDX DUST and all that other horseshit. I just bought 200 shares at 64.20. This baby is obviously going to the moon.

  17. Bigdaddy

    LABU already at 64.45. Hang on for the ride up folks. It’s never too late to get on board with a winner.

    1. Gary Post author

      The time to be excited was a week ago. Sentiment is now extreme and biotech is nearing resistance.

  18. dboz

    Still holding energy but what a crappy market. GUSH, UWT just got crushed again. Waterfall sell off. This is worse than miners. Miners at least have been stable for quite some time. Oil and Gas are all over the place. The only thing that creates any upside is news and then BOOM, right back into the toilet. Looks like there is no end in sight to the plummets. Oil may never get a bounce.

    1. Gary Post author

      And that’s the kind of sentiment that signals a bottom. Once everyone starts thinking there’s no scenario in which price can rise that’s when we run out of sellers.

      This is the exact same sentiment we saw in metals back in December. Now look at how everyone feels about gold.

      1. Gary Post author

        We are potentially on day two of the bloodbath phase in oil. They usually last 5-7 days. If we can take out the November low that would complete the left translated cycle and set the stage for what should be a very strong rally into the fall. I’m guessing we see at least $60 during the next IC rally.

    2. Pedestrian

      Agree that GUSH and UWT look terrible. They have both lost half their value in a months time and more downside is ahead. The Canadian dollar is turning down here too so thats not generally a good sign. The middle of the year can be a rotten time to be betting long on crude. Some of the most vicious declines have happened at this time of year (check a long term chart to see what I mean). We are already on the fifth straight week of falling WTI prices but the bottom should be worth our time once it arrives.

      Note the dome pattern on this weekly chart during the past two years. WTI should eventually retest its 2016 lows below 30 dollars but it will take awhile.
      http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CL&p=w1

  19. Don

    BD, I hope you know that LABU is a triple leverged ETF. It has gone up a lot very quickly and could pullback hard. Be careful.

    1. Bigdaddy

      Thanks Don for your concern and of course I know LABU is leveraged. I am not an idiot.

  20. dboz

    Yeah, I hope so, I am feeling very scared here in energy. Just when you think it can’t go any lower, another huge percentage drop hits. Still feels like there are plenty of sellers based on today and the massive drops just witnessed. Gush from almost 20 right back into the lower 18’s. That is horrific. 10% STRAIGHT down.

  21. JJHarmen

    I am watching GDX go up a few pennies and then down a few pennies. BigD may have a point. Going with a winner might be smart instead of hoping for a bottom.

  22. JJHarmen

    When ERX finally bottoms sometime this year, how long will it take just to get back to the break even point for those that bought in at $30?

  23. JJHarmen

    I suppose the guys that bought DUST at $34 would have some insight into how long it takes to recover.

  24. desertsun999

    Gary, I don’t understand why your thinking varies so much from previous ICL data. We just had a ICL in gold that was a 18% decline. In the past gold has had a lot of ICL’s that are in the 8% range. That is only 40.00 from where we are at currently and we still need to have a bounce. It just seems like you are trying to make this decline out to be something more than what it should be.

  25. Bigdaddy

    I sold LABU at 65.28. No use being greedy. That was the fastest 200 bucks I have ever made. Even faster than my lawyer. I will buy back on a dip. Stay tuned for more money making ideas from the one and only Bigdaddy! ( my wife picked that handle for me cause well… guess why)

  26. Christian

    I exited ERX @24.85 this morning. Was hoping for a breakout but looks like OIL has more downside ahead. Waiting for the next potential set-up. We’re getting close…

    Ps: I had bought a few shares yesterday at $25 on a pull-back using a 5 minute chart πŸ™‚

      1. Don

        That puts you at 25% of your original DUST position or did you add more after selling the first 50% at a small loss?

        1. Christian

          I added more to bring my average back down to $27.50

          Thx for keeping track. You’re officially my new book keeper Don πŸ™‚

    1. JJHarmen

      Chris, that was intuitive of you to get out of ERX and to do so quick after buying it and then selling at a loss. How did you know that ERX was going to plunge later in the day? What was your clue?

        1. Christian

          Ps: I’m also a lot more cautious when trading a triple leverage ETF. I’ve been burned a couple of times and have learned my lesson. Would rather take a couple of small losses here and there, then get caught in a huge drawdown :/

          1. Pedestrian

            You guys bought ERX? I must have missed a lot. That hasn’t traded above its 50DMA in most of the past 4 months and looks headed for an ugly ending. Channel support comes in around 20. I might consider it once the slow season in crude is over.

  27. Don

    Now we have gone from the bottom is in for oil to we may be entering a “blood bath phase”. I’ll bet the ERX holders are salivating at the chance to average down .

    1. dboz

      Yep, about to stop the bleeding for me. OUCH. What a horrible market. Free fall with no end in sight.

    1. dboz

      I still have GUSH. I was busy this AM and did not move a stop up so I failed to lock any gains. I have 2000 shares still, about to get stopped out now (17.24 is my bottom line). Going to cut the bleeding. Oil is no where near a bottom. I had an average buy of about 18.17 so not too bad of a loss considering the carnage. Kicking myself for not having a stop in after the run up this AM. Lost at least 2k of profit and now looking at a 2k loss potentially. STUPID!!!!!!!!

      1. Pedestrian

        Zkotpen called is right when he said crude looked like an old women stepping through some puddles. The expected fall came just as he was predicting.

    1. Don

      Matrix, please be sure and check back with us in 2033 and take some bows although I may be dead by then.

    2. matrix

      wave A was 1044, wave B will be 1450/1550 (from 1160/1170)…….then wave C down to 750…..

  28. Ralph Wiederzane

    So now oil is only the second day into a 5-7 bloodbath phase? Gary, you have to admit you are wrong by now. Luckily you stopped out of the other attempt a long time ago at much higher prices, because bull markets don’t have charts like the oil chart.

  29. desertsun999

    Could it be that the invisible hand is taking down oil to try and compensate for the discretionary spending decline?

      1. Pedestrian

        We are entering a long period of deflation and low growth. Domestic disposable income is just one of the many signs. Velocity of money is still falling. Very bad news. But the number one concern is the demographic picture. Its the economic version of death warmed over.

        I have already written about this at length in too many prior posts so its not worth covering again in detail today but in a nutshell, there is not enough money on this planet to stop a debt deflation once one begins.

        We are already seeing the first signs of what is coming by witnessing the slow implosion of Illinois, Puerto Rico and California. Tip of the ice burg since the show will eventually encompass most of the globe with China planted firmly in the cross hairs.

        The inflation people will just never get it either. What they always fail to appreciate is just how devastating an ending is in store once credit tightens and dries up. Cash itself gets scarcer. Borrowing becomes much more difficult if not impossible for many people and that in turns sows the seeds for a very uncomfortable economic contraction where buyers are unquestionably in the drivers seat again.

        Absolutely everything from autos to homes, from artwork to farmland can be impacted and the silly banter about five dollar tomatoes at the grocery bin will die the death it richly deserves.

        John Williams and his like are totally out to lunch. Inflation is most certainly not in the cards as hundreds of millions of seniors across the globe start to tighten their collective belts and stop shopping as they simultaneously start selling off their homes and assets to enjoy their golden years.

        What we have coming instead is the opposite of the heady days of the Baby Boom when every damned thing imaginable sold in volume and the endless appetites of youthful buyers flush with cash filled malls across America.

        Gold would be doomed in this scenario if not for the fact it is real money and thus an assurance of liquidity for those who hold some. But don’t hold your breathe waiting for it to see 10,000 dollars with roaring inflation in the background. Once these current asset bubbles eventually pop we are facing many, many years of falling prices and no new demand.

        With Central Banks now saying they will trim their balance sheets we can rest assured all that ginned up money that led to the current crop of asset bubbles will slowly unwind and reverse course.

  30. desertsun999

    Like I said before. Restaurant foot traffic tells a lot about what is happening in the economy. People don’t stop going out to eat unless their budget just don’t allow it.

    1. Nada

      What are you trying to say? Just an FYI. In my neck of the woods, I eat at restaurants for lunch M-F and and several times on the weekend. They are always packed and I find it quite annoying.

  31. desertsun999

    Gary, beings you are in this deep are you just going to ride out the energy sector play or did you already stop out?

  32. matrix

    someone posted that Lorge from WF Bank, had gold cycle similar to my post. We coincide with the 20 yrs. cycle from top to bottom, and 30 yrs from bottom to bottom .

    1. Pedestrian

      Agree Matrix. The last gold cycle lasted almost a perfect Pi number of 31.4 years between the 1981 and 2011 peaks and I really doubt that we will see another bubble phase bull in gold for many years to come yet. At best we retest the 2011 highs but not more.

  33. desertsun999

    You want to know whats really scary? Take a look at the head & shoulder formation on EAT from 2014 to present. Its trying to tell us that things are going to get ugly.

  34. Ralph Wiederzane

    I don’t see how one can hate the gold chart but like the one on oil. It is more likely oil gets only the few day bounce before rolling over to new lows than gold.

    1. Pedestrian

      Oddly enough gold and oil have been correlated for the past few months so they are trading more or less together. PK had mentioned it some time back and its still happening.

  35. Bigdaddy

    I think the biotecks are going to go straight up because there are so many sick fucks like me who need a new body part. Some day you will be able to get a new mechanical liver or gizzard to replace one with cancer. hell, i read that they are working on transplanting a brain in a robot body. I see a problem with that though because what about sex? isn’t that what everyone lives for?

    1. HomerJ

      Actually they aren’t to far from doing a head transplant, from a dud with a gimped-up body to some dead bastard’s functional (albeit headless) one.
      Also Biotechs have been rising into Thursday’s healthcare decision by the Trump administration and some other catalysts. It’s not just random shit.

  36. Don

    Has anyone noticed that gold and silver are sneaking up without fanfare? The oil carnage is distracting.

  37. RetireYoung

    Christian- You asked me about scalping before. I indicated yesterday good time to scalp JNUG.

    1. desertsun999

      Don, until silver finishes its consolidation, what the dollar does is irrelevant.

      Silvers relationship to the dollar in 2017.
      SILVERβ€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”-up .42 cents
      USDβ€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”-down 6 dollars

      1. Don

        The US dollar index (DXY) is not quoted in dollars and cents, it is just an index against other major currencies. It’s better to look at it in terms of percentages.

        From their 52 week highs: Silver down 13%
        DXY down 6.4%

        1. desertsun999

          I was trying to show the relationship of $usd & silver since the 8yr cycle high in the dollar. Just like in 2003, silver does what it wants to. Do not be surprised to see silver actually rally with the dollar for a extended period of time. Until it decides that its going to break out in earnest there is no inverse relationship.

  38. JJHarmen

    Things are deteriorating fast between the US and Russia, thanks to American stupidity and the stock market is a whisker off all time highs and gold is going no where. Nothing makes any sense.

    1. Don

      JJ: You are thinking with emotions. The machines that are responsible for the bulk of trading have no emotions. If WW3 were to break out it is likely that the market would soar because the machines could be able to screw over so many emotional humans that would go short. It’s crazy, I know. Value means nothing to the machines. They are only programmed to skim off human traders and one another.

  39. Goild

    I wonder if tomorrow we will see JNUG and NUGT drop.

    Today I recovered all losses from the 7K USO shares I have in a couple of accounts. So these 7K USO shares have been bought effectively at $8.77. Great deal.
    I also made good lunch money.
    Though in another account with 4K USO shares and 500 shares of XLE I am down about $4K.
    Eventually we will money out of USO and XLE.
    Good trading to all.

    1. Don

      Goild, how could you possibly have recovered USO losses when oil is down so much? Impossible!

  40. Goild

    Don,

    I made the money playing JNUG going up with up to 15K shares.
    I even made some money with USO as I bought 2K shares around $8.68 to sell them around $8.77.
    Thus the thing that works is to have one account for swings trades and another for day trading.
    There is a lot of money to be made in day trading. With minimum risk.
    You see my recent swing trades loose money so far. So recover and make lunch money with day trading.
    I estimate I have about 100 trades today.

  41. desertsun999

    Don, you need to get with the program. I been long silver all day & made 20% today. What’s the problem?………………LOL

    1. Bigdaddy

      What the hell is a “tranche”? sounds like a piece of uncomfortable clothing like maybe a jock strap.

  42. Bigdaddy

    Damm, i couldn’t get back into LABU at a decent price as it just kept going up and up. i could have made another $350 profit if i had just hung on. Now that I am getting the hang of this, i am going to start buying larger dollar amounts and make some serious dough like that Goild fellow does. He makes thousands almost every day.

      1. Bigdaddy

        It’s not about the money you fool., it’s about winning!!! i think i am ready to stop fooling around with penny ante bets. just watch me.

    1. Bigdaddy

      Ok, i gotta go. i promised the wife I would buy her something nice if i made money today but I don’t think 200 bucks is going to cover it. What woman will spread her legs for 200 measly dollars these days? Right, none. Times have changed. o well, i have to keep her happy if i want to play this stock market game. See you guys tomorrow.

  43. Kruzoe

    Well, I got stopped out of my Dust to-day. Will get back in asap. Dust has been very good to me for the past 4 trades – up about 58K. Why mess with a proven winner/

  44. Don

    The strength in the biotechs is remarkable. XBI is still a long ways from it’s 2015 high of 91.10 but if the bios are in still in a bull market, XBI will take out that high. I just don’t think that is going to happen although it may get close.

  45. desertsun999

    Pedestrian, I think you would be better off just shorting EAT with options. Let me know if you come up with a bear ETF that has an identical pattern.

    1. Pedestrian

      10-4, looks like you are correct on that after a scan of the ETF list turned up nothing. I just figured if there was an ETF called EAT there must also be another called RUN….

  46. Don

    I don’t know how they managed to close the S&P down only 0.025% when the market internals are terrible. The valueline index is down 0.49% and appears to have topped out 6 days ago , the Russell 2000, 9 days ago while the S&P just three days ago. New lows beat new highs today by a wide margin. The market is showing signs, in my opinion, of an impeding correction.

  47. zkotpen

    Intraday volatility in GDX is FINALLY starting to shrivel up for the first time since last week’s FOMC meeting. That normally signals a coming move. I think the move will be down, as I think the DCL is still in front of us.

    Gold and USDJPY are both showing contracting intraday volatility as well.

    Short GDX, waiting for USDJPY to finish its pullback to go long dollar vs yen.

  48. zkotpen

    Bigdaddy,

    Pls comment on my post, above — I’m trying to get it direct & to the point, but also to describe the markets, which are highly technical — at least the way I look at them.

    Though, of course, seeing your comment about “tranche”, my first thought was to post the above en franΓ§ais… juste pour toi, mon pote… et pour tous nos amis les Canadiens (qui sont tous bilingues, j’en suis sur!)

    πŸ˜‰

  49. desertsun999

    Gary, I have been researching the relationships of gold & silver during a ICL. It appears that you are correct. I have been a little pessimistic about how much silver would decline beings it is near its breakout point on the 5yr downtrend line but during these periods, (ICL), silver usually declines more than gold. It seems ludicrous that we could go below where silver broke out a year ago but history states otherwise. Hats off to you!

  50. zkotpen

    KHT,

    Love your comment about paper trading. It’s something I have considered for 3 decades now. At that time, while many on here were taking the existence of the free world for granted and grabbing cash as quickly as possible, I was out in an old boomer submarine pretending to be a nuclear engineer. I actually was a nuke officer — but will never be an engineer. Much as I appreciate & respect the profession, I do not have the aptitude to actually do it myself. Learned that lesson the very hard way.

    I recall suiting up and facing live fire, under controlled circumstances, in basic training. It was friggin’ hot! Like that 158 km/h fastball up around your chin vis Γ  vis same speed aimed at your forehead. Yeah — the controlled fire is equally hot as the live one, just as both fastballs are equally fast. Damn. Glad I never had to face a live fire!

    Getting to the boat, the whole business got scarier. There wasn’t even a practice fire anymore, so the only heat was that caused by turning off the ventilation. But no fire generating heat. Still, you had to don a breathing apparatus, and for 98% of people, that breathing device got plugged into a 20psi forced air manifold. The scary part was, the team running the drill blindfolded everybody in the affected space. So it wasn’t heat that was scary — it was loss of air. You could probably cheat in the paper trading version, but in real life, I reckon the smoke from an electrical fire would be blinding in the affected space, and the fumes would certainly be toxic. By contrast, I had no problem dealing with the battery — was even electrical officer for a while. The battery is certainly giving off poisonous, explosive gas all the time. But I could deal with it with a cool head & make all the correct and safe decisions.

    Still, as I grow older, I’m convinced there’s a lot to be said for building the muscle memory, and I believe that paper trading does build one’s trading muscles. That’s the place I need to get to in my trading: Getting my trading muscles into shape, building muscle memory. On a slow moving day like today, I can remain composed and put the whole thing together. But on a fast-moving day like last Wednesday, I get frazzled — even when I know with very high probability what the market is going to do.

    Just need to build that muscle memory, mon pote πŸ˜‰

  51. zkotpen

    Regarding right brain development, I did give Goild an exercise several months ago, though I don’t think he did it:

    After the market closed one Friday, I suggested he tie his right arm behind his back or put it in a sling to disable it for the entire weekend & then free it up Monday morning…

    Gotta get those right brain muscles in shape!

    1. Robert

      Zkot gold is spiking after hours. You said you believe the DCL in gold is still ahead what are your reasons? I was saying to Gary that the DCL could have Alrdy happened on Mon because the miners were no longer going down with gold. 2nd question, when do you expect the DCL this week or next?

      1. jake

        β€œIf you ever find yourself tempted to seek out someone else’s opinion on a trade, that’s usually a sure sign that you should get out of your position.” – Linda Bradford Raschke

  52. palobar

    I agree with Gary that Gold is probably going to test the 2016 low. However, if it closes below that point on a monthly level, the drop could get very nasty. That would be a serious breach in time. There is no guarantee it will do so but if it does so, it may well break the 2015 low too. I am not yet convinced that we have seen the final low. The date I gave for July should provide a short swing, A very important date should be around 8-14 October. MARK YOUR CALENDAR. I have no idea whether it will be a high or a low. We will know when we get there. You are gonna thank me. I know what the numbers in gold mean better than anyone here.

  53. palobar

    By the way, whoever has followed Gary’s suggestion not to short the US equities must have already made enough money to take a long vacation:)

  54. palobar

    By the way, whoever has followed Gary’s comment NOT TO SHORT the US equities, must have already made a little fortune.

  55. zkotpen

    Robert,

    “gold is spiking after hours. You said you believe the DCL in gold is still ahead what are your reasons? I was saying to Gary that the DCL could have Alrdy happened on Mon because the miners were no longer going down with gold. 2nd question, when do you expect the DCL this week or next?”

    Gold and USDJPY are moving to the 5 day SMA after hours; GDX already made that move during the trading day.

    Reasons are same as before — gold and GDX and USDJPY should hit support/resistance before their DCL/DCH — respectively.

    I was a bit nervous shorting GDX — going long USDJPY will be more calculated. In both cases, short term volatility is contracting, and that portends a move.

  56. Gary Post author

    Jason at sentiment trader today noted that put buying on the XLE is at levels only seen a few times since 1990. This level of bearishness has always led to multi week rallies.

    Which is what I keep telling people. Now is not the time to panic and sell.

    How many times have I said this: The time to buy is when you are most scared to pull the trigger.

    1. jake

      Obviously that in itself is not a reason to buy, you haven’t ignored the technicals in GDX, best to wait for an ending action and not jumping the gun.

    2. Christian

      Not when you’re trading a triple leverage Gary. You have to be somewhat cautious no matter what.. and I would much rather take a couple of small losses instead of getting caught in another ‘extended’ or — Oh look, now it’s turning into bloodbath — typa cycle. No thanks.

  57. Pedestrian

    Kind of curious that the VIX has spiked almost 20% in the last few days. Same thing happened last year on the same day when VIX rocketed upward some 70% before cratering. Must be the June effect. We are getting overdue for a spike anyway by the look of the chart so some action should be coming soon.

  58. Gary Post author

    Remember me saying that an ICL had to unfold as at least an ABC correction? I suspect that gold is starting the B wave counter trend rally now. Once it has run its course then the next leg down will begin.

    This bounce will serve to pull bulls back into the market for fleecing, just like the phony rally two weeks ago did.

    This was a logical spot for the bounce to begin. Gold dropped far enough to tag the 200 DMA which also lined up with the intermediate trend line. So there was a double support zone.

    Now we just need to see how far the bounce gets.

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t see anyone taking me up on the call to make real time trades with price and position size.

      If anyone has the balls to actually do it I will keep track of the trades on a spreadsheet and we’ll see if anyone really can produce the returns they claim.

      send me an email with your entry time and price. You must email me within 30 seconds of placing the trade so I know it’s valid and not another hindsight trade.

      [email protected]

      Do we have any takers?

      1. desertsun999

        You have to admit Gary, everything I have e-mailed you about in the last 2 months has been pretty close. I sent you e-mails on the silver april top, the may low—-mfi 40yr oversold, remember, and the most recent 2 days ago technical buy on silver. It don’t happen all the time but I have been white hot in the last 3 months.

        1. Gary Post author

          Email me real time entries and exits along with position size and we’ll see how well you do over time. One or two good trades don’t mean much. What maters is whether you have more money in the account next year and the year after. Whether the account is moving higher over time over moving backwards over time.

          1. desertsun999

            O.K. I will start with my next silver sell. I only trade silver so it should be pretty easy to keep track off.

      2. Christian

        Don’t get me wrong.. it’s tempting. But then again.. do I really have the time? Do I care? Do I really need to prove anything to all the Goombas on this blog or to myself?? Naaaaah, I’m good.

        I’ll post an idea, an opinion, a sexy looking chart.. if you wanna run with it, great.. if you don’t, that’s ok too πŸ™‚

  59. roadrunner

    pedestrian, matrix.

    re: Your long term predictions on the gold price
    First you should attribute the work to the individuals from which you took your predictions Obviously Martin Armstrong for starters.
    Second. Your and “theirs” make the same assumption. That the US dollar as well as all fiat currencies will exist in 2033 exactly as they are constituted today.
    .
    I predict US dollar and all FIAT will not exist as they are constituted today in 2033. therefore, it would be impossible to predict its correct price.

    I will predict an ounce of gold will still be an ounce of gold in 2033. And that ounce of gold will be the same or more quantity of goods in 2033 as it does today. Your 2017 US dollar will not.
    lastly i doubt i will be around to see if any of the predictions come true.

    Now what might be of value is a prediction of gold price movement between now and end of year?
    Thoughts?

    1. Gary Post author

      Armstrong is notoriously wrong at major turning points. Socrates is set up to be a big trend follower so it never anticipates major turns. In 2011 Armstrong was predicting $5000 gold by 2015.

      Socrates never saw the 7 YCL in stocks coming. Then when it was already well underway he was looking for much lower prices. Clearly Socrates can’t predict government intervention either. He’s going to miss the turn in the dollar just like he missed the bottom in gold.

      He’s predicting deflation but we haven’t really had any deflation since the 30’s. Just very short spats of deflation from time to time. The last credit contraction in the 70’s and 80’s didn’t end in deflation. Quite the opposite, it led to serious inflation. I’m not sure why this time would be different.

      We clearly have massive inflation and have since the bottom in 2009. It manifests in different sectors and sometimes rotates from one to another, but there is no denying we are getting huge inflation. At the moment it is focusing in the stock market, health care, education and to some extent back in the housing market. When this inflation starts to bleed into the commodity markets then we’ll get what most people consider “real” inflation. But stock market inflation is just as real as any other inflation. The simple fact is that central banks have printed trillions of currency units and it has to land on something. Governments have done a pretty good job of making sure it is landing on the global stock markets.

      1. Pedestrian

        “We clearly have massive inflation and have since the bottom in 2009” — Gary

        No Gary, inflated asset prices are not the same as inflation. You cannot generalize the idea to say Central Bank money printing causes inflation when it clearly does nothing of the sort.

        The term “inflation” and how its measured as used in economics terminology is fairly specific and understood by almost everyone. How it is measured by the Federal Reserve is according to price changes in a fixed set of services and commodities according to pre-determined percentages in the basket to arrive at the final calculation.

        Asset prices such as housing, artwork, autos, stocks and bonds do not figure in the calculation at all. You are using the term very loosely without even considering that asset prices rise and fall according to the business and credit cycle in a way inflation never does.

        For example, in the credit bust of the 1930’s the price of housing and farms fell to zero in some regions. There were simply no willing buyers at any price and since so many places were abandoned there was not enough investors willing to carry the maintenance and tax costs of empty buildings. To this day you can still see homes on the prairies that have been vacant for more than 85 years but still stand like sentinel memories of a very hard time.

        Have you ever seen tuition, rent or the price of carrots fall to zero though? Obviously assets like homes and land belong in a different category and the reason they are currently costly out of proportion to actual inflation data is because of speculation, not Central Bank printing.

        In any event, most of the so-called money the Fed printed never even made it into the economy as the recipient banks simply left it on deposit at the Fed where it earns a small annual percentage rate. Nobody borrowed that money from them so no new money came into existence to propel fresh demand.

        Of the spending the Fed did do, most went into Treasuries and those sit on the books at the Fed so those debt instruments are adding nothing to inflation rate or increases in the stock market. The things you are talking about are mostly fictional musings peddled online by armchair economists who should stay in their jobs as Baristas.

        Actual measured inflation in the US is currently 1.9% annualized.

    2. Pedestrian

      Roadrunner, I would be the last person to err by not attributing to Armstrong his due in the areas he excels. There is no question his ideas are influenetial. That being said however, Armstrong does not own the topics of credit cycles, deflation, inflation or debt collapse. These are subjects I have been interested in and writing about for many years already. Long before I heard of Martin if you want to know. So my commentary is my own and if it happens to rhyme with anything Armstrong writes I will take that as a compliment.

  60. Ralph Wiederzane

    USO might continue low enough to undercut it the all time low set in Feb. 2016. It’s only 12% lower from here, and I would get interested in the long side if it did.

  61. Goild

    Right now OIL sentiment must be all down and well trashed.
    The departure from the daily averages is substantial.
    There is a good possibility we are at the bottom.
    However, the market is an extremist and it may bring oil to $38-$39 by Friday to induce much more pain.
    This is the time to load more shares.
    One cannot lose.
    If the FED is right about the US economy and if the Chinese are getting back into shape, oil consumption will increase and we shall see oil at $60 definitely by mid 2018, if not much sooner.
    Add to that the upcoming inflation. This is a good opportunity to make money, about 25%- 50% within 1-2 years. The SM would not do this.

  62. Steffmeister

    mmm so far so good … if we break 1240 I am out. Gold needs to close above the MLH line
    http://i.imgur.com/6Zgus35.png

    #Ped & #Zcotty are both wrong about gold longer term. This is true though:
    “… there is not enough money on this planet to stop a debt deflation once one begins.”

    It will bring down gold just below 1000, lets say 970. Then all CB’s on earth will fire up moneyprinting to meet deflation and we will get the trade of a lifetime, fiat will devalue and gold will skyrocket. This is the Mike Maloney scenario being played out.

    Bought a small lot in XLE, oil is not my main interest, but a contrarian play is nice.

    1. Gary Post author

      β€œβ€¦ there is not enough money on this planet to stop a debt deflation once one begins.”

      How can this possibly be true?

      There is no limit to how much money CB’s can print. They don’t even need paper to print on anymore. They just create it out of thin air on a computer. They easily printed their way out of the last debt cycle collapse in the 70’s and 80’s. As long as they are willing to sacrifice the currency (and they have shown they are) there is simply no level of debt that can’t be printed away.

      Seriously, if you had a counterfeiting machine in your basement is there any way that you could possibly spend more than you could print? Especially if all you had to do was click a mouse to add zeros to your bank account.

      1. jake

        Become your own boss.

        Counterfeiting: You don’t need printing equipment. Just go public with your company and float shares till the cows come home.

        Check kiting: With just a million $ you can start your own Nat. bank and really get some leverage by floating NSF checks.

        1. jake

          O worried about redlining those loans, no prob. The Comptroller will allow you to charge off that every year and write off the rest.
          So go ahead and make those loans, just securitize them
          With no recourse and live the good bankers life.

      2. Steffmeister

        It’s true when deflation hits, but in that case the CB will print, print and print.

        The EW pattern from Daneric that I showed here is what is probably going to play out, just as Mike Maloney has predicted for many years now.

        First deflation then major inflation!

      3. Pedestrian

        Gary, we are going to have to disagree on this subject.

        Credit is the cornerstone of why the Central Banks are printing money in the first place. When they buy Treasuries those purchases amount to loans to governments. There is both a creditor and a debtor in the relationship that is established.

        In this case the Fed charges interest for the privilege of owning those bonds and the government gets to keep shopping while it looks for the future revenue it needs to pay it all back one day.

        When the Fed buys mortgage backed securities (MBS) those also amount to picking up debt that other banks and institutions are shunning. By taking up the slack in the MBS market some years back they put a floor under the bid and stopped what might otherwise have been a collapse in credit as banks themselves, (who were the major MBS holders at that time), were facing insolvency in some cases as the housing market crashed.

        As I said already, there is not enough money to prop up the system during a credit bust. And the reason should be obvious. You need credit in order to increase the money supply. The very activity of lending is what puts money into the system where none had been before and without real demand for homes and autos and business investment the whole process grinds to a halt and then starts to reverse course.

        The Federal Reserve is not going to print up money to pay off your credit cards, student loan, mortgage payments or auto lease. All those can therefore be defaulted on.

        How about Greek or Italian bonds? Will the Fed buy those to save Europe? Nope. And they won’t save Venezuela or Puerto Rico either. Maybe you think the Fed will come to the rescue of every bankrupt whose home is lost in the next crisis. I doubt that will happen either.

        So is the Fed creating money to bail out California? How about Illinois? No and no again. Can the Fed print money to solve the natiowide pension shortfall? Of course not. That is not what they do and there is no authority whatsoever for that to take place…..Ever.

        So pensions will go bust and rest assured, nobody is going to print money to fix it. And municipal debt WILL be defaulted on and the Federal Reserve is also going to be powerless to stop that process (as if they would even give it consideration).

        My sense here is that you have no idea what the Fed “money printing” is really about or how it was targeted never mind why it was a success. Let me give you a hint though. It is nothing like Wiemar Germany and the currency units are not going to zero only to end up as wallpaper or fire-wood.

        The Fed has stated that they now intend to reduce their balance sheet. That is deflationary in conjunction with rising rates at a time when credit itself faces a contraction (impending recession) and a sovereign and municipal debt default cycle is nearing.

        If asset prices begin to fall (and they will when credit demand contracts) there will be precious few ways to get fresh money into the economy no matter who is in charge. This is one of the reasons governments are seriously contemplating minimum incomes.

        So if Joe Bloke does not borrow to buy that over-price bungalow being sold by his mothers best friend then Suzie Elder does not have money to buy a nice seniors holiday package to Europe or get a hip replacement. During a debt deflation, cash (money) actually disappears. And the reason it disappears is because asset prices fall in the face of faltering demand.

        As you should know, most home values are entirely fictitious anyway meaning that valuations are only valid on the date the asset is actually sold and turned into bank cash. The vast majority never sell for the peak price that homeowners imagine. But they can certainly sell for less when supply exceeds demand and they want out. A lot less in a worst case scenario as we know too well since the events of 2006

        The end of the credit cycle arrives when there are insufficient numbers of buyers willing to borrow new money into existence at the prices being demanded by sellers. So what we get as a result is falling asset prices (negative inflation in your parlance) and the disappearance of the imagined wealth people saw on paper.

        The end of the credit cycle is also a time when people prefer saving to spending, when they have exhausted credit demand and cannot easily pay and when incomes are insufficient to service existing debt.

        We do know that most Western nations are already swimming in debt/GDP numbers that are beyond the pale and that is without consideration for unfunded liabilities which might as well be called false promises (since they will never be met). The US is right up there in the top along with much of Europe and of course in Asia things are no better.

        Japan is in the worst position in the world and China may just be in second place if we could get real numbers from them. So there is going to be a resolution in the levels of absolute indebtedness globally but we don’t know when it will come. As the world keeps aging and real demand drops further we simply draw closer to the date when one or another nation will bust and like a set of bowling pins it takes down its neighbors and closest trading partners.

        This is NOT something Central Bankers can fix because destroying the value of the dollar (or any other currency) via deliberate printing to achieve inflation at such a time does not eliminate the basic problem which is really about excess debt, an inability to meet the payment schedule and insufficient disposable income of the average Joe.

        So it does not matter what the Fed can do or how many zero’s they can tack on to the end of a string. It will not help you or anyone you know personally. It won;t help any State or pension plan either. Nor can it helps foreign governments. It won’t buy bridges or pave roads and it will not stop the prices of houses from falling once enough seniors are selling all at once to the next broke-ass generations of Millenials.

        That printing press is solely the domain of Federal government and bank debts but those liabilities are just a small part of the total debt picture that is threatening at a time when almost all assets sell in the nose-bleed section.

        That’s why there is not going to be enough cash, Gary.

        Its why there is no escape from what is coming either.

  63. Ralph Wiederzane

    Anybody else notice that GLD is sitting on both it’s 200 day, and 200 week MA around the 118 level? I wonder if that would lend it more support than usual?

  64. Gary Post author

    Looks like there’s only one taker with the balls to take the challenge and make actual real time calls.

    Desert You emailed me on Monday so I’m going to assume you bought Monday. I’ll use silvers closing price of $16.46 as your entry. I need to know what the position size is on this trade.

  65. Ralph Wiederzane

    LOL, balls has nothing to do with it Gary, we are not selling newsletters. It’s you that makes calls and claims on them, in order to garner trust of potential subs. There are many reasons why somebody might not choose to open the books to you, not just lacking the nuts to do it, like privacy for one.

    You are asking people to give you money for your ideas, not the other way around.

    1. Gary Post author

      Oh the hell it does. You guys want to criticize every move I make. The only way you are going to get the right to do that is if you follow the same rules I do. So don’t give me any chicken shit excuses.

      Grow a pair and make real time calls. Entries, exits and position size. I’m not asking to see your actual trades, I’m forcing you to make real time calls like I do. Not the Monday morning quarterbacking bullshit that we always see on here.

      I’ll be very surprised if any of you can even come close to me over the long haul.

      1. Ralph Wiederzane

        Why don’t you show us your accounts, the past trading then Gary? Seems fair enough.

        1. Ralph Wiederzane

          We should look at past trading, that way we can get an answer NOW to who is best, not wait another two years!

        2. Gary Post author

          You know that all my calls are made in real time and documented in the portfolio links.

          1. Gary Post author

            What do you mean do I actually take the trades? If I didn’t think the trades would make money for subs I wouldn’t make them.

            What kind of nonsense question is that?

    2. Ralph Wiederzane

      Also, just because you can prove a sub or commenter here is a trading idiot that loses money, doesn’t mean you are making money or not losing it yourself. It shouldn’t matter what any anonymous dingbats say here, you are the one asking for money.

        1. Ralph Wiederzane

          If you are going to just tell us what you did real time, then why not SHOW us, since you already told us? Let the statment back you up, and if not show it, why not since it’s just what you said? It’s even easier than telling people. I know why, been doing this a lot longer than you.

          1. Gary Post author

            I think we have our answer. You are just like almost everyone else here. You’re only interested in criticizing after the fact. But when it comes down to it you won’t make real time calls probably because you know you won’t make money then everyone can criticize you after the fact.

            Pretty sad that only one person is willing to take the challenge.

    3. Marc

      Gary has been wrong plenty of times but in the past couple of years I’ve tripled my account due to his calls. I don’t trade them exactly but if Gary’s in, then I’m in. There is no better value assuming you follow the model portfolio. I’ve been following Gary since before the crash.

  66. Gary Post author

    Folks I don’t care what you do with your actual portfolio. I just want real time calls. Entries, exits, and position size. Whether you take the trade or not in your own portfolio doesn’t matter to me. I don’t take every trade that I call for subs. I’m often much more aggressive than I want any subscriber to be. I can afford to be. Most of them can’t. I will often wait for weeks or months for a good trade setup and will pass on trades that could have made modest gains, trades that are appropriate for subscribers to take. But I’m waiting for a setup where I can swing for the fences so I don’t tie up my capital taking smaller trades. I’m waiting for one of those trades right now in the stock market.

    I just want these trolls to play by the same rules as me and everyone else who have to trade in real time. If you can’t make real time calls and make money then you don’t get the right to criticize after the fact.

    Trading is easy in hindsight. Becoming a billionaire is simple if one has the ability to go back in time and make perfect trades. But when you have to make calls in real time it becomes a lot harder. There is a reason why most traders and money managers underperform the indexes. There is a reason why almost no newsletter writers will run a real time portfolio. There is a reason why many analysts use multiple counts or scenario’s. One of them will always be correct and it’s up to you to guess which one. If that’s the case then what are you paying him money for?

    1. Christian

      Most of my trades as of the past few months have been documented on this blog in real time. I’ve done this not to fluff my own feathers (even though I enjoy doing so on occasion) but to hold myself accountable and to show others who are just getting started that trading doesn’t have to be hard.. that if you follow a few simple rules and/or guidelines, and learn to control your emotions you ultimately can do quite well.

      Gary — I have nothing to prove nor do I wanna send you a freakin email within 30 seconds of every trade I make. I just don’t care enough. If I was trying to win over an audience and sell subscriptions, then I would take you up on your challenge in a heart beat, but the only thing I’m interested in right is buying a sailboat so that I can sail the Mediterranean, Lol! No joke πŸ™‚

      Also worth mentioning.. And I’ve said this to you before when I use to be a subscriber and you were very quick to brush it off. If you don’t wanna tell us or your subs what you do with, or how you trade your own personal portfolio, that my friend is absolutely fine. But if YOU really had balls of steal (as you say) you would turn that SMT paper portfolio crock of shit into REAL MONEY and you would trade it accordingly.. which also means you wouldn’t be able to just ‘shut it down’ like you did last year on a whim. You feel me?

      YES! All of your trades are documented in real time but that portfolio is STILL PAPER!

      Food for thought — John Doody once hired an independent company to audit 14 years worth trading and the results were outstanding and indisputable.

  67. jake

    Gary, your pocket book is self validating. Better to to profitable than right.
    Posters are ever wrong, which is amazing with the evident lack of trading skills, just some puff and bluff analysis.

  68. Goild

    Gary,

    Good morning,

    You are doing a superb job with the SMT website. Your dedication and passion for trading and helping people are outstanding.

    1. Christian

      + 10 — for Dedication and Passion πŸ™‚

      Gary’s patience and commitment to others is by far an absolute stand-out!

  69. desertsun999

    Gary, you know human nature better than most. People love to critique on a public forum. It makes them feel smarter than what they actually are. This is the gift we have been handed. The internet culture. Your not going to change it, its here to stay. Just consider this the wannabe forum & leave it at that. You are the only one that is accountable here and that’s the way people love it. Don’t waste your time & energy on it!!!

    Now, back to the task at hand. I am a more than a little worried right now. Take a look at EAT and the head & shoulder pattern from 2014 to present. It has broken down and is projecting a 40% fall from here. The last time oil and EAT were crashing together was in 2008. You add in the retail spending woe’s and it is all pointing to a fallout in discretionary spending. I am starting to wonder if this is going to be what sets the stage for a FED reversal in monetary policy. Any thoughts?

    1. dboz

      Yep, I bought back in this AM. If the bottom did not occur, it will in the next 1-2 days. Something over the weekend will trigger a SPARK.

  70. bill

    Also can we get back to trading Ideas and making money instead of all this Dick Measuring, its become a complete turn off on this forum…Christ. I don’t care if any of you make 0.1 cent and I could careless if you have a $million dollars in the bank! Lets trade dammit! hell I called LABU bullish here two weeks ago and now all you clowns missed a major break out…Do I care not even a little. It was a call I nailed it SO WHAT…Lets get back to sharing ideas shall we.

    1. Bluebellkid

      Tell us how you determined LABU was bullish. I remember you making the comment and I had actually bought some the week it shot up thru the 50 day and closed near the top of the weekly trading range and volume was above average. Then when the tech wreck hit on the 9th I sold everything. The next two weeks LABU was up slightly but volume was below average so I couldn’t pull the trigger. I suppose I should have had Buy Stops in 10 cents higher than the recent highs and I would be in but the overall markets have been shaky lately.

  71. dsims3

    A note of warning to those subscribers who may try to negotiate a discount with Gary. He had agreed to give me a discount on my subscription for this year, saying that he would send a partial refund after my renewal was processed. I agreed since I have found him to be honorable in his dealings with me in the past. But my renewal went through 10 days ago and I have not gotten the refund nor has he replied to any of the several emails I sent him.

    1. dsims3

      It turns out that he did not get my emails. I had sent the original emails, where he offered the discount, to his cox.net account. Then he canceled that email account in the week or two between then and when I sent the other emails saying that my renewal had been processed and it was time to send the discount. When I finally did get in touch with him he sent the money right away. So I apologize for doubting his honor.

  72. Bigdaddy

    LABU is climbing like a raped ape already and I sold it yesterday for pocket change. I sure can pick them nut I don’t hold on long enough. That’s going to change.

  73. bluelagoon

    Looks like oil and gold are bouncing today. Also looks like LABU is topped out for now.

  74. ted

    Gary, You really missed the bio’s. Too much focus on gold and energy. It’s the year of bio’s and crypto’s.

  75. bluelagoon

    Talk about manipulation – headline says “Natural-gas prices pare gains as U.S. supplies rise more than expected” and then NG price shoots up….UGAZ now up 4%

    1. Glblmltdwn

      It’s not manipulation, NG builds are lower than the last years average + we are entering summer = heavy A/C usage.

  76. desertsun999

    Wow, the classroom got pretty quite after being scolded from the professor…….ha…ha. I guess the one thing we all have to keep in mind is that posting on this forum is a privilege. Gary don’t make a cent off of anybody here so us clowns have to stay in check. I think I am going to get in my clown car and take a drive….LOL

  77. allthatglitters

    Gary,

    Love the challenge and taking you up on it. 1000 shares ERX purchased at 24.62, e-mail sent.

        1. HomerJ

          I haven’t seen any large options flow in the sector – ETFs, producers, refiners, nada. When I start seeing big money rotating from another sector, that will be a good place to look.
          I’d rather miss the first few percentage-points of gains than buy ERX a month ago (cough cough SMT cough) and be down on a 3x leverage ETF….

  78. Christian

    Glad I had the foresight to sell 1/2 of my DUST shares yesterday — my core position is still very much in play.

    btw.. I’m liking the look of OIL at these levels.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/Y8cxNpyA/

    ERX could be in the process of building an ‘inverse H&S’ when you drop down to a 30 minute chart, if that is indeed the case then I will re-open a position and swing for the fences πŸ™‚

  79. Goild

    Christian,

    Nice OIL chart. The odds are favorable.
    Do not forget to post your trading rules/insights here and there.

  80. Christian

    Gary — Today is another example of Miners leading the charge over precious metals. Miners have formed a swing low but Gold and Silver haven’t.

  81. Bluebellkid

    If by the close tomorrow ERX is still near the lows of the week and volume is above average you are jumping the gun.

  82. Bluebellkid

    ERX needs to close above 25.30 for it to be a positive week and until it takes out the 50 day on convincing volume it is a risky play. It might make a good swing trade here.

    1. Christian

      Simply put.. my guidelines are different than yours and I have yet to see you post a successful trade in real time to further solidify your point of view and/or strategy.

      As for myself.. Sentiment in OIL is currently at one end of the spectrum which further increases the probability of a good trade. And I like to get in as close to bottom as I can so that if I have to bail my losses are very small. I don’t mind taking a couple of small losses here and there in order to catch the bottom and the bottom is very close πŸ™‚ That’s how you have to look at it.

  83. Goild

    Do not forget that JNUG can do FANTASTIC things.
    It is still at a bargain price.
    Do not be a chicken. Get some shares.

    1. Christian

      SBIO also recommended by one of my favourite analyst STEVE SJUGGERUD a few months ago πŸ™‚ Dare I say I took a nibble and it’s paying off!

  84. Bluebellkid

    You make this comment : I have yet to see you post a successful trade in real time to further solidify your point of view and/or strategy – and then turn around and tell us you bought SBIO a few months ago now that it is finally moving. And good luck with an ETF that trades 44,100 shares a day.

    1. Christian

      I’ve been trading Biotech on and off for the past couple of years and have only started posting some of my trades on here IN REAL TIME over the past 2/3 months β€” if that’s not good enough for you then you can kiss my beautiful behind Lol πŸ˜‚

      Looking forward to seeing you post a real trade IN REAL TIME with a chart explaining your strategy so that the rest of us can learn from your infinite wisdom.

        1. Pedestrian

          Agree with that Blue. The guy is a blathering over-inflated turkey. I put him on ignore most days since his posts are tripe.

    2. jacob2

      Bought SBIO/TAN mid February. Been a wait. In real time bought:

      TWTR: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TWTR&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p00177287504

      FIT: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FIT&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p59046116905

      FRAK: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FRAK&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p95376535660

      A longtime buy and hold dumpster diver am I. Believe I’ve bought these right as it’s close enough to the end of the quarter where Institutions have largely sol there losers. Be the first to admit not every pick works out but it’s mine. Good luck to you and thanks for the comment.

      1. Bluebellkid

        Does look like solar stocks are on the move – wonder if it is because Trump wants to put solar cells on the wall dividing the US and Mexico?

    3. jacob2

      Bluebill: Bought SBIO/TAN mid February. Been a wait. In real time bought:

      TWTR: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TWTR&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p00177287504

      FIT: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FIT&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p59046116905

      FRAK: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FRAK&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p95376535660

      A longtime buy and hold dumpster diver. Believe I bought these shares right as it’s close enough to the end of the quarter where Institutions have largely all sold these losers. Be the first to admit not every pick works out but it’s how I choose to play the game. Good luck to you and thanks for the comment.

    1. cazabrujas

      Looks like it. I bought some DUST at 30.1. if the candle closes more or less like this on miners and gold, I think it will pay off.

    1. dboz

      Gold and silver are doing very little, miners are starting to really take off. Many are starting to get some really nice volume also. It looks like GOLD bounced right off the 1240 uptrend and is taking off. Maybe 1270 or better? Silver took a good bounce also. Both moving independent of any correlation. Looks like we are not going to get oversold conditions any time soon.

    2. Pedestrian

      There you go. That chart is not talking about inflation when the primary motive power behind most pricing is energy and energy is in the toilet. These guys who keep talking up inflation are just nuts in my books because they fail to see what is obvious. The G/S ratio is still climbing too which means you get a lot of crude for an ounce of gold. If gold really does rise this fall we should expect to see an historical high in the ratio which is another way of saying the day approaches when you will want to dump gold in favour of oil to maximize your potential. That is to say that when oil bottoms gold may also have peaked (in crude oil terms) and it will just pay better to switch to where the next action will be. That still looks to be years away though and most here will have forgotten this chart by then.

  85. Steffmeister

    This pattern looks very familiar and we have the exact same pattern in one of my absolute favorite miners!

    http://d.stockcharts.com/school/data/media/chart_school/chart_analysis/chart_patterns/fallingwedge-fcx.png

    The Falling Wedge is a bullish pattern that begins wide at the top and contracts as prices move lower. This price action forms a cone that slopes down as the reaction highs and reaction lows converge. In contrast to symmetrical triangles, which have no definitive slope and no bias, falling wedges definitely slope down and have a bullish bias. However, this bullish bias cannot be realized until a resistance breakout.

    The falling wedge can also fit into the continuation category. As a continuation pattern, the falling wedge will still slope down, but the slope will be against the prevailing uptrend. As a reversal pattern, the falling wedge slopes down and with the prevailing trend. Regardless of the type (reversal or continuation), falling wedges are regarded as bullish patterns.

  86. Robert

    Dont buy DUST forget miners they are too hard to make money unless scalping like GOILD. Stick to oil and stock market

    1. Kruzoe

      Actually, my past 4 trades in Dust have been winners – 58K total profit. I expect to buy Dust soon.

  87. Robert

    4-6 weeks as a long ass time till you start making money in DUST. Gold daily cycle low is in and miners have showed no signs of even being near to dropping. The fall was tiny compared to gold. Better to buy oil now

    1. Steffmeister

      Robert I bought miners and JNUG at Summer Solstice, looking good imo πŸ™‚

      A bearfest coming next week looking at history, will Gold survive an attempt by the bears?

      1. Robert

        You follow astrology. Why do you say a bearfest next week? Everyone here has been saying that for over a month and still no serious selling in miners yet. Its a waste of time tring to wait on the miner selloff lol

  88. Goild

    Human nature…
    The market is repetitive. Yesterday we had a drop around noon.
    Then I was expecting the drop today from 1:00 PM to 1:30 PM in JNUG.
    But rather than going short I fought the falling knife. To lose my early lunch money of $900 plus another $800. At the bottom I was loaded with 11K JNUG shares. How bold, how silly…
    Then I recovered my lunch money on the bounce, and left a lot of money on the table.
    Yes, badly played.
    Bad trading habits are hard to deal with them.
    Nevertheless I am closing another good day.
    Good trading to all.

    1. AT

      I think DUST should be a buy, I have a bid at 29 but no luck today. Maybe a better buy tomorrow.

      I am waiting for JNUG at 10 – 12 at the ICL bottom, now is way too early for JNUG …

  89. Goild

    Kruzoe,

    When you by DUST do you buy all the shares at one time? or do you add as the DUST rises?

    1. Kruzoe

      G, it will depend on gold’s “internal ” energy, i.e momentum. I may buy up to 15K if I like the set up or only 2K. No 2 trades are alike.

  90. Pedestrian

    Here is a chart to ponder over when considering the price of gold. Notice that the Swissy was at a 20 year low the same year gold hit bottom on year 2000 and that it spiked to a multi-year high the same year gold peaked in 2011. Same month actually.

    So the Swissy and gold have something to say about one another.

    Now look at the linked chart closely and tell me how high gold is really headed in the next few years.

    There are a few really interesting patterns in play. I am not giving out the answers on this one though so you will have to do your own homework. But the chart is quite revealing if you think you can handle the truth.

    Swiss Francs 25 year chart: ……Can you guess what its telling us?
    http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6S&p=m1

    1. Emptyness

      Boring Ped. Write something about your deflation theory, that’s more interesting. Gold and “Swissy” are like apples and pears – they look similar, but they aren’t.

      1. Pedestrian

        It’s not boring if you know anything about the importance of Swiss Francs. This was a gold backed currency up until the spring of 2000 when its link with gold was officially severed. The Swiss sold off a large chunk of their reserves and what happened next was gold hit bottom and then began its decade long run to all-time highs.

        The spike high in Swiss Francs in 2011 was a result of fears over a European debt crisis and the Swissy was pegged to the Euro soon afterward. But that also marked the top in gold and it has been falling ever since.

        None of this is really coincidental. The relationship is still important because CHF is still considered a flight to safety currency and when it moves up gold usually follows. So what happens with the Swissy can be reflected in gold and vice-versa.

        Of all the currencies to follow in regards to gold this one is among the most important and yet its rarely discussed anymore as investors focus primarily on the USD/gold correlation. But if you examine the CHF chart you will see the significance of key times in golds price history which tells us this is one pair we still should be watching.

  91. Pedestrian

    And then check out this other chart you chart-lovers because its pretty to look at….

    NUGT is approaching the end of a 9 month long coil and close to breaking out (up or down I do not know and won’t speculate on just yet). See how long that pennant has been forming as price moves between the upper and lower channels as they narrow?

    There is money in that chart if you feel sure you how to play it.
    http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=nugt&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

  92. Gary Post author

    We have a second taker in the real time trading challenge.

    Sebastien bought ERX at $24.62 this morning.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’ve never seen an ICL yet that didn’t break some kind of support before the bottom was struck.
      This is usually what suckers in the retail shorts right at the bottom as big money is buying.

      1. Bluebellkid

        The Accumulation/Distribution rating on ERX is E (A is bullish E is bearish). The Up/Down volume ratio is 0.6 (1.0 is neutral and anything above is bullish and below is bearish). Granted these are lagging indicators but it doesn’t appear big money is buying yet. If ERX closes near the lows of the week then any buys in here are just plain risky and not necessary. The weekly volume is already above average after just 4 days and it is down nearly $3/share (doesn’t get anymore bearish than that) – talk about trying to catch a falling knife. It only becomes a buy if it can rally off the weekly lows and close in the upper half of the weekly trading range by tomorrow afternoon.

        1. Gary Post author

          Sentimentrader noted yesterday that the price to book for energy stocks is cheaper than almost any other time since 1990. Also the level of put buying on XLE has reached a crescendo. This level of pessimism has led to multi week rallies every time.

          That doesn’t mean the rally has to start tomorrow, but risk is very low right here and potential reward is very high.

          1. HomerJ

            Still haven’t seen real money going into Energy. Until then, my money is in other sectors.

          2. Gary Post author

            I’m a contrarian (a real one). When everyone else is leaning one way I like to take the other side of the trade.

            Seriously how many energy bulls are there on this blog. Maybe 2 or 3 of us?

            This is how it was for metals back in December. Remember when everyone was telling me gold would never go up and was going under $1000?

            They were all wrong weren’t they…

        2. Pedestrian

          Yeah, why the hell anyone is gambling with oil during its seasonal dead period is the real question. When you want to be looking at oil is December/January for much better odds. That ERX chart looks awful to me. Might have a short term bounce but is it going to be worth the headaches when it suddenly turns South?

          1. HomerJ

            Gary Contrarian you may be but so far you lost money in energy trades in the last couple of months.
            There’s no point in being against the crowd when the tide is against you, I’d rather lose OUT on early profit then LOSE on early entry.

          2. Pedestrian

            Actually I didn’t consult a seasonality chart this time. I just looked at a weekly of WTI to see what price has been doing in the past few years during June/July and wouldn’t you know, its taking a dive almost every year. The biggest crude oil price crash in decades started in June 2014 when WTI began a hellish half year fall. That’s enough information to keep me suspicious of oils real intentions for the time being. Anyway, to me it looks like it has more downside yet and these oversold conditions will last longer than most people expect. At best I see a weak bounce coming that should be followed by a continuation of this current decline. So I am not buying it and remain as uninterested today as I was back in middle May when Gary first started touting oil as the next big trade. Not sure what he saw there but its been a wrong call all along and looks like the trade will get bloodied even more before its over.

  93. Goild

    Pedestrian,

    Good to know you are around.

    On the CHF I see it has a double bottom and is headed to 1.1.
    On NUGT it looks heading to the upper trend line.
    NUGT may break the trend line after CHF.

  94. Lenapowich

    I have been watching this site for some time and there are some sharp cookies here….. Christian, Don, Desertsun999, Gary, Bluelagoon and a few others. Great stuff!
    I love the commentary and hope no one minds if I join in once in a while. I have done quite well with stock market ETFunds but want to get into the precious metals and there seems to be a lot of interest here in that area.

    1. Gary Post author

      lena,
      The sector has been caught in a difficult trading range for several months now. This probably isn’t a great time to start trading metals until price breaks out of the range.

      1. m0ntana

        Gary,
        Rick Ackerman on KER this morning said oil may go down under 30 bucks. How much credence do you put in that?

        1. Gary Post author

          Maybe at the next 3 YCL but that won’t be due for another year and a half yet.

          1. Pedestrian

            Yeah, I would agree with that. Rick is often too linear in his trading approach. If he thinks crude is going down the tubes this year he is way ahead of his time. He constantly blows his gold calls trying to estimate whats coming based on what has already happened so I would not put much stock in his oil calls either. He is good at the very short term stuff though. No question about that.

      2. Don

        Although a $20 move for gold may seem quite substantial , in fact it is a relatively small move of only 1.3%. Volatility in gold has actually been quite low. One good day with a 4% move would put gold over the $1300 mark. Natural gas pricing can move that much in just a few hours!

  95. desertsun999

    Fact;
    Since 1910, the U.S. economy is either in recession or enters a recession within 12 months in every single instance at the end of a two-term presidency… effecting a 100% chance of recession for the new president.

  96. primetime

    Gary

    It is looking like today may be a good day for smt to experience some of that technical difficulty stuff, if you know what I mean.

  97. chrisG

    Prime, no need for smt to talk in davinci codes!! What u r saying is market crash today!!!

  98. Goild

    Good morning,

    It is nice to wake up and have automatic lunch money.
    Though this might be a trap to quickly evaporate before the open.
    At the end I chickened and only left 1K JNUG shares on the table.
    There is the possibility for JNUG to reach today $21 to crash next week.
    Good trading to all.

  99. Goild

    I wonder where is Dday?
    The daily charts, his trading prudence, and his by the book trading lessons are missed.

  100. Gary Post author

    Remember me saying an ICL has to unfold at least as an ABC correction?

    This is the B wave counter trend move.

    Shorts needed to be covered when gold tagged the 200 DMA.

    Now we wait until the move tops and starts to roll over for the final C wave down into the ICL.

  101. Goild

    Gary,

    Thanks for the comments.
    I must admit I know almost nothing about cycles.
    Though after the SMT I am going to learn about them.
    Is the Elliot book the place to get a primer or is there any other resource?

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m not referring to EW when I say an ABC correction.

      I’ve just observed that ICL’s need at least one counter trend move during the decline to keep bulls holding positions. That is the fuel for the next leg down. Traders can’t get too bearish too quickly or you run out of sellers. So it’s important that an ICL have at least one counter trend bounce during the process to prevent sentiment from getting too bearish too quickly.

  102. Goild

    Gary,

    There are many people that follow the SMT site. I take that many do know little about cycle theory.
    It will be nice if you point at some articles, books, or websites that discuss cycle theory.
    Otherwise one can hardly follow your cycle arguments.
    If you know, would you please point at those resources?

    1. Don

      Goild: The resource you are looking for is called a ‘subscription’. No need to waste Gary’s time digging up information for you when he does all the analyzing and will do so for a modest fee.

  103. primetime

    Gary,

    Do you think PM Dec lows are still in play at this point?

    And how about 10,000 Nasdaq, 500 Jnug, 5000 gold and the energy boom….are they still good.

    I continue to hold and improve energy and pm positions, but I’m up to my neck in shit and can hardly shovel fast enough. The hopium I am on for you being right is getting quite expensive, you know!

    1. Gary Post author

      Well I never said anything about an energy boom. Just that we should get a nice rally out of the yearly cycle low once it is struck.

      Everything else though is still in play. But understand these things are going to take years to play out. Do you have the patience to wait that long for the reward?

  104. CooLoser

    I can sure tell this blog is picking up on traffic. 330 comments to this article.
    5 years ago 15 comments was a shit-ton.

  105. dboz

    It will be interesting to see if we start to tick up or is this another consolidation before yet another cascade drop? Maybe we can see oil go back up and test the 50-55 levels on a pop? That would make for some nice gains.

    1. Gary Post author

      If you want to play the challenge you need to email me with price of entry within 1 minute so I can verify. I will also need a position size. ie. 10% of portfolio, or 20% or 100%.

    2. Glblmltdwn

      Care to elaborate on that stellar analysis there? Sounds more like u missed the LABU train.

    3. bluelagoon

      Bill – I agree with you in that it looks like LABD has bottomed and is looking to bounce. I’m going to wait until Mon/Tues to get in for 1. Further confirmation 2. Potentially getting a price closer to the recent low of $6.25…..may or may not happen.

  106. Goild

    There may not be enough fuel for a further gold/miners advance today.
    So I will cash on my 1K JNUG shares at the first good opportunity.
    No JNUG shares left for the weekend for peace of mind.
    TIP already overextended and FXY is lazy.

  107. JJHarmen

    GDX is looking good this morning. Do we dare to hope for a strong day for the beat up miners?

  108. bluelagoon

    For those who like mechanical indicators like the PSAR – note DUST just went to a bearish daily PSAR. To me, this means it can bounce up from here before it goes down further but there’s a good chance we’ll see lower DUST prices over the next week…..$26/27?

    I think it was Alex who said Gold would do what everyone expected – to go down with the Fed announcement and then back up again afterward?

    If gold goes back up to the trendline I’ve drawn….it could be headed back to 1280’s. I guess we’ll see – this trendline work is still new to me but they seem to be working.

    1. Gary Post author

      You should track the underlying, not the leveraged. There is decay in the leveraged.

      Apply the PSAR to GDX.

      1. Gary Post author

        The Dow just triggered a PSAR sell signal today and if it closes in the red we will have a 4 day rule potential trend change.

        1. bluelagoon

          This would all hold together. Some correction in SM for the next 1-2 weeks – June is typically weak for the SM and when it is – expect a rebound in July.

          This SM weakness would drive LABD and Gold up…..both of which have charts that look like they’re bouncing.

          The oddball for me is oil…..it looks like it’s ready to bounce too….but would it bounce while SM goes down?

      2. bluelagoon

        Thanks Gary for the tip. I’ve been told that before and you’re right, PSAR is far less reliable on the leveraged than the parent ticker. Of note, Gold has its first bullish PSAR today on the daily and that is why I gave more credence to the bearish one on DUST.

          1. bluelagoon

            Yes – I’ve noticed that what you and I have on gold hasn’t quite matched in the past. Not sure why. Perhaps it’s the systems we use. But my system has generated a BUY PSAR 3-4 days after the last few DCL’s. Now we have that PSAR again after which looks like a DCL to me.

    1. bluelagoon

      Thanks for sharing desertsun. Do you find that he’s often correct (i.e. has a good track record)?

      1. desertsun999

        You know EW, always gives multiple options without much weighting in either direction. You have give a guy his due though when he nails a triple like that within pennies!

    2. m0ntana

      Really don’t think he’s that good. Very linear thinking.. back in December he was telling gold and silver will slide down to $800 level.

  109. Don

    I bought a couple of crude oil futures contracts at 42.86. I am not overly bullish on crude but I think it is playable for a strong bounce. There is just too much bearishness amongst the analysts.

  110. Don

    After starting out down everyone of the big five are now up as are the biotecks and semis. The money just keeps pouring in to the same old sectors. It will end with a bang, one of these days. Gold and silver are getting a tail wind from a weaker dollar.

  111. JJHarmen

    ERX and GUSH are up strong today but unless they were bought at the absolute bottoms a few days ago, everyone who bought in the last few weeks are still drowning. Leveraged funds are a bitch to play. I am glad I bought GDX instead of NUGT.

    1. dboz

      Yep, I loaded up 2 days ago. Up nicely. Adding more at 44 and go with even more at 45 WTI. I also went pretty big on UWT. If things turn south, I think I will just hedge with DRIP and DWT and wait it out. We are due a bounce of some sort pretty soon, it may have started.

    1. Gary Post author

      Dust moves 3X inversely to what GDX does.
      So a 1% move up in GDX translates into a 3% move down in DUST.

      No one should be in DUST at the moment. The point to take profits was when gold tagged the 200 DMA.

      1. Christian

        Ultimately that proved to be a good call but the bounce up from the 200 DMA coulda simply been a reactionary move and nothing more.

        It would’ve been ideal if the Miners had broken their May low first before starting a B WAVE correction.

      2. Don

        Gary: I hope you took your own advice on DUST or are you doing the old turkey thing waiting for that big drop you have been expecting for the miners?

        1. Gary Post author

          I am. I’m patiently waiting for the stock market to give me a correction (in tech) and I’m going to take a big position.

          Everything else is too erratic for me.

  112. allthatglitters

    VERY pleased with buying 1000 shares of ERX yesterday. Unbelievable opportunity to buy at this level. The holy grail moment to buy into any commodity is when everyone and their dog is bearish on it. Does no one besides Gary recognize now as that moment for oil? Today’s price reflects everyone and their dog thinking this is a terrible investment. What do you think the price will be when a little bit of optimism creeps back into the sector and people realize it ain’t going much if any lower? Gonna try to do a Buffet on this and hold until it at least doubles.

    1. JJHarmen

      Allthat, good play on ERX. It will be sad if they take away your profit. Good luck on that big investment.

      1. Don

        What profit? Didn’t Allthatglitters say that he/she bought 1000 ERX at 24.62? It hasn’t even reached the break even point yet.

    2. Christian

      Don’t get too exited too quickly when trading a triple leverage my friend. That dog can turn around and bite you without hesitation..!

  113. Goild

    Repetition, repetition, and repetition.

    We may have again a drop in the miners from now till about 1:30 PM. Wait for it and buy at the bottom as the miners may close at the pre-session high or higher.

  114. Christian

    OIL looks to be consolidating in a triangle and could be setting up for one more push down.

    XLE is bumping up against resistance @64.50. I might pull the trigger if ERX is able to break through resistance @24.50 with enough conviction.

  115. Goild

    Volume in JNUG is low, today is Friday, and is lunch time.
    It has been a slow and not so easy trading day.
    I am pretty much done for the day with automatic lunch money and with a hard earned additional lunch money.
    I got about 12K USO shares and need to play old turkey with them.
    We shall see.
    Good trading to all and have a wonderful weekend.
    Sleep well. Do not carry JDST or DUST.

  116. Goild

    Christian,

    Nice and instructive chart on DUST.
    It shows how to lay a plan for a trade.
    There is an entry price.
    Thanks!

    1. Christian

      Just remember to be nimble. Nothing is ever written in stone and DUST could continue to drop further as Miners rally some more during this B Wave πŸ™‚

    1. Gary Post author

      No one should be in DUST right now. As I said the obvious place to take profits was when gold tagged the 200 DMA.

  117. desertsun999

    Christian, you should have exited your entire dust position when the $HUI recovered its intermediate trend line imo.

    1. Christian

      It’s always easy to call the shots in hindsight desertsun999 but in reality the Miners could’ve continued to drop towards their May low and DUST could’ve continued to soar for another day or two.

      The fact that I had the foresight to sell half of my position should tell you that I know exactly what I’m doing and that I’m following my plan accordingly. In the end, that’s all that matters πŸ™‚

      The time to sell my core position in DUST will be when Gold reaches its ICL, at which point I’ll switch gears and open a core position in NUGT and ride the next intermediate cycle. That’s how I make money consistently while everyone else chases their tail.

  118. Gary Post author

    Gold has resistance at the 1260-64 zone.

    Assuming the dollar resumes its daily cycle rally next week I would expect this bounce in gold to top in that zone.

    I’ll probably wait for confirmation in the form of a break to lower lows before re entering DUST though.

  119. Bigdaddy

    Today, i got into ERX with 500 at 24.32. It’s obvious to me that oil is going up and big. this is the time to get into the oils Trust me on this and buy. Gary was way too early when he got into ERX but he will make money too .

    1. Gary Post author

      I’ve said multiple times in videos and charts that ICL’s must unfold as at least an ABC correction. None of the other pullbacks produced a three wave move and that is one of the reasons why I don’t think any of those was the ICL.

      An ICL also needs to produce at least one failed daily cycle. Again something that hasn’t happened yet which suggests the ICL is still in front of us.

      1. Dday

        Sure thats not to say it wont bounce to the $1300 first, as the stoch on the daily is about to cross…

    2. Christian

      In Gary’s defence Dday — He has talked about this at length and others have as well.

  120. Bigdaddy

    i had a buy order in for LABU at 65.80 but the SOBs wouldn’t take it down that low and so no fill. now it’s 69 bucks. Isn’t that nice?

      1. Glblmltdwn

        XBI, IBB broke out of 18 months consolidation. It will probably test previous highs if Trump doesn’t start bashing it down like Killary did.

  121. Goild

    Be careful with gold and the mines today. They might go down.

    FXY is down; TIP overextended yesterday and is heading down.

  122. allthatglitters

    Gary, sorry I misunderstood when you asked for position size yesterday I thought you just meant # of shares. My 1000 share purchase of ERX @ $24.62 is approximately 50% of my portfolio, rest is in cash.

    Tempted to load up on DUST or JDST as a short term play if they go down a bit more. Gold is attacking its current resistance with all the ferocity of a wet noodle. Next leg down in the metals should be a very nice win for those on the right side of the trade.

    1. Goild

      altha,

      I would only put 1/4 of the portfolio in ERX.
      If it starts to work then add the other 1/4.
      Make sure you have a stop loss and respect it.

  123. desertsun999

    Hmmmmm. Gold can’t go up because the gold/oil ratio is extended. Gold can’t go up because we are in the 6m ICH window. Everybody on this blog just can’t wait to load up on DUST shares. I think I will let gold tell me what to do with instead of me trying to impress upon it what it can & can’t do. When a PM blog is all bears that is usually not a good sign. Lets see what next week brings before we all declare ourselves genius’s about gold’s demise.

    1. Gary Post author

      Actual intermediate degree sentiment in gold is 40% bulls.

      I would like to see it get to 30% bulls or lower before I try to call a bottom. I’d also like to see the BPGDM drop to 20% or lower.

      We also need an intermediate degree rally in the dollar, even if it’s just a bear market bounce.

      1. Robert

        So in other words is the ICL still ahead? It looks like I was correct and gold made a DCL on Wed. Im finding it hard to believe GDX will still go to 17. There has just been too many chances for bulls to escape, they are taking control of the market

      1. Pedestrian

        Interesting JJ. I might be in your camp. I like to keep my life simple where technicals are concerned so I often focus on just a few charts that I think are going to give me the answers I need.

        In this case its GDX, the HUI and NUGT that have my interest since they are displaying a pennant pattern going back almost a year that are nearing their respective breaks.

        We will know more once GDX hits 23 and a half or thereabouts. If she breaks up next week then Hooray I am buying back in. Otherwise we are looking at one more cycle down to the lower trend line. Check out the link and you will see what I mean. This is where the rubber meets the road in the next while for miners and what happens next is likely going to establish the next trend direction.

        So its a big deal in my mind.

        The HUI incidentally looked to many as though it had broken down recently from a similar pennant but I was not sold on that idea. If you check a year long HUI chart today we can see that where the price dropped too (and reversed from) on June 20th is still validating the pennant but with a new point South of where the prior lower pennant channel was drawn.

        In other words, the HUI has not broken down at all but just has a different angle on the bottom rail. A better angle in my opinion. Hopefully I am explaining this clearly so everyone knows what I mean.

        Whatever happens, next week could be decision time. I am not calling it however but will just let the charts do the talking for me. If she drops and goes South below the lower channel it probably means the broad averages will also be correcting since miners are already weakened.

        GDX…The only chart worth watching right now if miners are your thing.
        http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=gdx

  124. Don

    I am out of my crude oil futures with a small profit. It is clearly not into strong rally and I don’t like the long term charts anyway. Not bullish.

  125. Don

    No DUST here either. I have plenty of gold miner and silver ETFs so I want to see lots more upside and I think it’s coming.

    1. Don

      Goild: It might be but when I when you look at a long term chart of crude, does it look like it’s in a bull market ? There will be a strong bounce at some point but I don’t think we are there yet. It’s not happening today.

  126. desertsun999

    Gary, I think golds 20m ema is in the drivers seat now that both the 10 & 20ema”s crossed the 50m sma.

    1. Gary Post author

      I think it just boils down to the dollar. It’s been down 3 days and gold has been up three days.

      If the dollar is ready to produce an intermediate degree rally then gold is going down.

      We actually don’t have confirmation yet that the dollar has completed its daily cycle low. Neither the dollar nor the euro have managed to break their cycle trend lines yet.

      This is why I will never trade currencies. The cycles have become so erratic and elongated it’s just absurd.

      1. Robert

        You do not sound confident anymore in the ICL. If gold breaks out of that pennant that Pedestrian has shown its off to the races. Gold will begin the next bull leg if it breaks out upwards. As the weeks go by its gonna be harder and harder for the bears to get there last leg down

        1. Pedestrian

          Thanks for looking at the chart Robert. I lean positive on metals right now and its possible we have seen an interim cycle bottom already on the GDX chart. Which means in other words it will break to the upside within mere days and there should be a good trade to be had.

          1. Robert

            yes i just cant believe that gold miners did not even make new lows after months of manipulation. Gold has been making higher highs since the start of the year while the miners have been weak and drifting down. Now gold has finally sold off and all of a sudden the miners have found new life. Perplexing

  127. Goild

    Don,

    Thanks for the comment.

    I see OIL being in a sideways channel. It may take some time but it will hit again the upper channel trend line. So the potential is to make 10%-40% within I would say 2 years, If not much sooner 10%. Where else can I get such automatic money with good certainty?

    1. JJHarmen

      Goild, isn’t two years a little beyond your time for results? Maybe you meant to say two minutes.

      1. Goild

        JJ,

        I can be very patient.
        Those shares aren’t in my day trading account.
        Have a nice weekend.

  128. Bigdaddy

    Don, why are you bearish on oil? i just bought a 12 thousand dollar stake in ERX today, so don’t talk like that. Oil has been beaten down and needs to go up. Can’t you see the opportunity here? Gary says energy is going to the next big winner so get on board and quit being a downer. And, as you are no doubt aware, BKX has gone to shit but i am averaging down, not selling.

    1. Don

      BD: I am not really bearish on oil and do expect it will have a strong rally one of these days but from what point? $42 $40? $35? Because the long term chart does not look encouraging, I am being prudent by covering when it doesn’t appear to be going my way, especially when dealing in futures. .

    2. Don

      BD: As for BKX, it is the only exposure I have to oil right now. It will almost certainly go up if oil rises, as will most oil stocks. Yes, I am also disappointed by it’s lousy performance. But sometimes it can up to a year, or longer, after insider buying for a stock price to reflect the reason for insider interest. On the other hand, sometimes the insiders get it wrong, just like anyone else, but that is the exception.

          1. Gary Post author

            The key COT level today is in the dollar. The Blees rating has hit 97.

            We’re about to get an intermediate rally. That should push gold down into a true ICL. One that will meet all the requirements for an ICL.

          2. desertsun999

            The last two 3yr cycle lows in the dollar had the commercial spec’s going net short. If we get some dollar weakness next week it should take us to the extremes we are looking for. Remember our discussion on COT levels at the 3yr cycle low? The starts are starting to align now for your failed daily cycle!

          3. Pedestrian

            Well a Blees in that range is pretty convincing Gary. The thing is, when I look at silver on a weekly chart I am equally convinced its at a bottom (draw the lower rail from the lows of 2016 to see what I mean). Maybe we are talking about metals and the dollar trading higher together for awhile. It has happened before.

  129. Pedestrian

    I changed my mind. ERX is a buy right now (today) and should run up to at least 27.75 next week but I would use that as an opportunity to exit longs because the larger pattern still looks negative to me.

    1. Pedestrian

      Also bullish gold, silver and platinum. I have been wrong before of course and there is always plenty of doubt in the air but metals look good to go next week and should they give me a signal Monday morning I am wading back in.

        1. Pedestrian

          I haven’t been trading for almost two months Boss but got interested again when it looked like platinum found a bottom near its December 2016 lows. Because plat can often lead the metals sector its worth paying attention. Seasonally this seems too early for a big bullish breakout but then again there are no real rules to follow, just generalizations from the past. So the bounce I imagine may be short lived which is why I can’t call it just yet. It really depends on what kind of pattern plays out next. I like the looks of the GDX chart though and suspect this may be its time to end that pennant pattern.

          1. Gary Post author

            Trading higher together usually only happens during some kind of geopolitical event or if sentiment just gets too extreme in gold.

            Sentiment is still pretty neutral.

            That being said I won’t short again unless gold makes a lower low.

          2. Gary Post author

            Also volume has been very light in both GDX and GDXJ the last three days.

            Volume doesn’t have to be large for a rally to succeed but it’s usually increases the odds.

          3. Bluebellkid

            That would be correct on the volume Gary. While GDX closed near the highs of the week the volume was well below average so not a very convincing move. Another thing to note is the 50 day and 200 day which are only 21 cents apart are providing resistance.

          4. Pedestrian

            Agree with all you wrote Gary. This one is going to be about playing it by ear. A variety of charts are giving hints of a change though. One I follow and have mentioned (although a minor chart) is PLG which I initially wanted to pick up near a dollar. After it cracked that and fell all the way to .75 today I took another look and saw something I had missed before. Its landed bang on channel support and should be good for a decent bounce if platinum cooperates next week. To find the channel I am referring too just draw the line across the tops near the 4.00 dollar level and take note the lows today are in perfect parallel to those. There is no guarantee support won’t break of course so I am holding back over the weekend. But if this is a valid final low on a weekly chart it could turn out to be meaningful. As an aside, if the Yen rises with any strength then expect the Nikkei to fall back along with other major indices and that might be why the dollar and metals rise together in the next while. There are good technical reasons to believe the Nikkei has finally topped as I was discussing for months although it did overshoot my 20,000 target a little more than expected and it has taken an Eon to arrive. Exhausting to be honest. You can check the channel lines on a monthly chart for yourself to see that we could be at some kind of corrective top right now. If that’s correct we should be ready for decline that would push metals and Yen/$ North.

            Platinum Group Metals
            http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=PLG&ty=c&ta=0&p=w

          5. dboz

            Ped, I bought PLG last week on that dip you mention. I already got out. There are potentially serious financial issues with that company. Management really sucks. They are not mining the amount of material they should be for the expense they are incurring. After a little more research I decided to bail out. I was teased with the recent $2 spike and seeing it at .75 looked like a big gainer. Not sure the company will survive without another share dilution. Point being, be careful and do some due diligence before jumping in. JUST AN FYI.

  130. bluelagoon

    Ped – I am also seeing some energy in oil shorter term. Longer term, I still think it’s very bearish.

    I have been watching UWT, GUSH and UGAZ and all look like they are finally ready to bounce. I am waiting until Monday to see if we get 1 more chance at a lower price. My guess is that these will move towards their 10DMA’s if not further.

  131. allthatglitters

    I predict sub-$25 for ERX will be a thing of the past very soon. $24 was the price when everybody and their dog threw in the towel and said we can’t take it anymore, energy is hopeless. Best time to buy.

  132. jake

    There’s a bad case of gold and oil myopia here today. The action has been in the stocks.

    1. Pedestrian

      Well of course, Jake. Trading metals is officially a mental illness. We all know that! LOL!!!

      1. TraderPete

        You’ve got that right! Not only that, it’s a sure fire way of losing your shirt, your house, your sanity, etc. πŸ‘½ 😎

      2. Robert

        I guess you are not believing that miners will fall again either. If u could answer a question ped because Gary is not answering me: why should miners all if a sudden breakout to the upside now and resume the bull? Since the beginning if the year they have been underperforming vs gold. Gold made new highs and miners made lower lows. It seemed they were being suppressed. It makes sense that it was due to manipulation by the banksters so that they could drive it back to the Dec lows as Gary has been saying. So now we finally got the big drop in gold, every reason for the miners to selloff and now they are still at the top of range. it doesn’t make sense anymore.

        1. Gary Post author

          I think you need to put on your reading glasses. What big drop are you talking about? Gold is just stuck in a trading range and so are the miners. From the top at 1298 to today gold has only dropped 2.9%.

          During the same time miners have dropped 4.8%.

          Nothing unusual is going on.

        2. Idontknowwhatimtalkingabout

          Miners will drop hard again and gold, cycle people just have the time frame totally wrong

  133. Nada

    No chart is going to tell us what gold is going to do next week. However, that data is strong that the dollar is getting ready for a strong bounce. We have the COT’s at 97 blees and we have massive BOW in financial related stocks;

    JPM +500m
    BAC+448m
    GS +234m
    PNFP +203m
    C +201m
    XLF +179m
    USB +127m
    STI +84m

    Then on the flip side, we have big selling on strength numbers in miners/gold
    GDX -220m outflows
    GLD -114m

    So, one has to ask themselves. What do you trust more, some fancy candlestick patterns to sucker in goldbugs or data showing you exactly what smart money was doing today?

      1. Nada

        BOW = Buying on Weakness
        SOS = Selling on Strength

        An example in the output above; JPM +500m = 500 million in equities were bought today in JPM on weakness and on the other side, GDX was sold into with -220 million in outflows.

          1. Pedestrian

            I would not rely on that information in isolation. Plenty enough indicators just serve to confuse anyway. I will add that after watching markets long enough I have learned there is ALWAYS a technical reason to sell a security and there is ALWAYS a fundamental reason you can use to avoid buying. That’s what has kept so many out of the stock markets for literally years on end as they powered higher in one of the longest bull markets in history. And that being said, there is ALWAYS both a fundamental and technical reason to buy a security in the face of withering news that says you need your head examined first. You just cannot rationalize the market a lot of time because it responds exactly opposite of what you *think* it should be doing. The other thing is that it almost always takes longer for a price to be achieved than you imagine when watching a chart and timing entries and exits are probably the hardest thing any investor faces as they try to get past all the noise of others warning them off. Some days its just better to ignore most indicators and stick with the technical patterns that you know best.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m going to take a guess and say the dollar rallies next week and everything goes down.

    2. dboz

      Great post and insight. I see the same thing. That massive dump of shorts on the dollar tells you where the big money is saying the dollar is going. Nothing to say that gold can’t go up with the dollar, but the volume in the miners is anemic and we have had volume decreasing in GDX for 9 months now. Not really a sign that people are loading up for a big move, nor that it is gaining any momentum. Still waiting for any outcome.

      As Robert says, this PM market makes no sense. Why would miners suddenly rally with a drop in PM prices and then start to see PM prices taking off to add fuel to the pile on as retail gets handed the SHIT sandwich before the rug pull.

  134. JJHarmen

    GSX did well today and I will continue to hold. Anyone holding equal dollar amounts of DUST and ERX took yet another beating today with ERX up 2.2% and DUST down 5.1% This has been a losing combination for weeks. Raking in the cash with one hand while throwing it away with the other is not the path to prosperity. Maybe next week will be different.

  135. Steffmeister

    “Steffmeister
    June 22, 2017 at 12:41 pm
    Robert I bought miners and JNUG at Summer Solstice, looking good imo πŸ™‚

    A bearfest coming next week looking at history, will Gold survive an attempt by the bears?”

    mmmm … still valid I suppose.

    Someone who remembers the winter solstice of 2016?

  136. desertsun999

    I don’t think we are going to see any dollar strength until after Tuesday of next week. If we get pressure on the dollar to start the week it should be enough to tilt the large spec’s to a net short position on the dollar. This sector is now officially dead for at least the next 2 to 3 month’s. The ability to forecast silver prices has now just went up in smoke. I can almost guarantee that silver will rally with the dollar for a period of time and there is no TA that is going to be any better than a coin flip on how that relationship will play out but at some point it will drop just like gold. I think there is a good chance that the economy is going into recession like I have been writing about for the last couple of weeks. I agree with Gary. I think EVERYTHING is going to start tanking which is going to supply the FED with the collective support that they will need to reverse monetary policy. That is when this sector is going to catch fire. For now, its back to the waiting game…………such is life!

    The large spec’s are net short the dollar at these last two 3yr cycle lows;
    May 2014 U.S. dollar 3yr cycle low——-http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1399664002.php
    May 2011 U.S. dollar 3 yr cycle low——http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1304710347.php

    1. Gary Post author

      Im just not seeing any recession. Im in Boulder CO right now and the place is booming.

  137. desertsun999

    Gary, don’t you find it sort of funny that all the things that we been sparing about have now turned into a common ground on which we can both agree upon.
    The wizard has just pulled the curtain back and exposed his bare ass!!!

  138. jacob2

    Gary a suggestion. Why don’t you run a contest for all your posters … perhaps with a prize of a free subscrition. Everyone has an opinion and as so many play the 3x funds perhaps who can pick the 2nd halfs or 3rd quarters leading sector might be appropriate. This idea Might fall under the heading of too much work but believe it would be fun and perhaps useful for your marketing.

  139. Goild

    Looking at the ERX, XLE, charts one sees a linear drop.
    What in heaven will it make them stop? Nothing yet!
    Possible reversal indicators are a substantial volume spike, a big price drop, or a long hammer.
    USO is at $8.86, I am holding nearly 12K shares.
    I can see USO at $8.00.
    As soon as it crosses $8.71 the recent drop, I will get rid of 2K shares.
    Once it hits $8 I will load the 2K shares plus 5K more.
    Once it hits $7.5 I will load 5K more shares.
    Once it hits $7 I will load 5K more shares.
    Once it hits $6.5 I will load 5K more shares.
    And if it hits $5 I will load 20K more shares.
    Then I will close my eyes and pray.
    How stupid.
    Should it not be to sell 6K shares as soon as it crosses $8.71 or the 12k shares?

    1. Christian

      Goild — that glass you’re holding in your right hand has alcohol in it. Please put it down πŸ™‚ Thx

  140. Goild

    Buy the way, do not fool yourself that you can handle easily this situation.
    Try it and you will know better.

  141. jacob2

    Contest proposal:

    SMT Top 5 Championship 2nd half picks July 1 – December 31

    1. Hi, lo, end of year close Dow
    2. Hi, lo, end of year close NDX
    3. Top sector, worst sector 3rd quarter
    4. Top sector , worst sector 4th quarter
    5. Old Turkey buy and hold stock or ETF entire 2nd half

    HOMER; PRIZE: FREE 1 YEAR SUBSCRIPTION TO SMT FLIGHT AND 3 DAY HOTEL TO LAS VEG\AS… (DINNER WITH GARY?)

  142. Gary Post author

    LOL I’m not interested in doing that much work. But I will give away a free years membership to the winner if he can also beat my returns over the next year. One for each category. Stocks, metals and energy. I don’t trade currencies. I wouldn’t touch those things with a ten foot pole.

    All trades must be emailed to me within a minute of placing them along with entry price or exit price so that I can verify. Position size also has to be specified at time of entry.

  143. Goild

    Christian,

    OK I put it down. Though this evening I will have a drink your health πŸ™‚

  144. fatboy

    Hello everyone,
    Cannot believe how many of you ask Gary continuously for market do’s and dont’s, why don’t you just subscribe and the money it cost you will be nothing compared to what you stand to gain. I have been a subscriber for about six months now and my portfolio looks much better than before. So Gary must be pretty good. No one can be spot on every time but he is pretty close. Plus you get the alarm bell for portfolio changes should something not looking good start to happen or will happen. Further more i cannot believe he answers so many stupid questions on this blog?
    My Take
    Mexican

        1. zkotpen

          Indeed it does show my mindset.

          To clarify:

          You’ve made it clear you don’t like this blog.

          You have contributed nothing to it, except rudeness, disrespect, and contempt.

          Doesn’t it make sense that you can find another blog that’s more to your liking and/or where you can make a meaningful contribution?

          1. KHT

            zkotpen

            Why bother putting the wear and tear on your keyboard to respond to such a low level troll that has to resort to such pathetic means to draw attention to him self?

  145. fatboy

    You Sound like some lawyer,
    I was commenting on the blog as a whole not directing anything to you personally,You must be weak inside LOL!!

  146. dboz

    Goild, I think we see a small rally bounce here in oil. Bounce to the top of the channel then down again one more time. So figure 1-2 months is your load the truck in oil.

    I have no clue on metals any longer. I have almost lost interest. They are impossible, confusing, directionless. Just staying clear until we break one way or the other.

  147. ras

    Gary, just curious why you were focusing on weak sectors(oil & pms) for the past several months, instead of strong sectors: health care and software? Pms and oil will have their day, we may not be there yet. Gold unlikely to go down to the lower line of your triangle in a straight line around 1160(?) without a few bounces along the way. we are currently experiencing one. Gold is now @1260. We are looking at $100 decline at most according to your estimate. So, it may be bounce/drip in alternation?

    1. Gary Post author

      Well if someone would send me a working crystal ball we could have gotten in ahead of the rally.

      I don’t recall anyone else buying biotech before the rally though so I guess no one has a crystal ball.

  148. Goild

    dboz,

    I hope you are right, and oil will go up say to $46 shortly.
    USO, XLE, ERX volume is slightly higher. GOLD’s lows and highs correlate somehow with OIL’s.
    GOLD is reversing and so OIL should.
    So there is hope the OIL falling knife is reversing.

    As per GOLD, my take is that a triangle/coil is taking place which would be interesting to sees how it resolves. I see GOLD continuing going up to tag the triangle top, nearly $1300.

    There is a lot of money to be made in the metals/miners. Do not give up. Just relax and whenever you least expect it you might have a clear vision. There is no easy money anywhere else, the grass isn’t greener elsewhere. We are becoming experts at gold/miners and this is where we stand the best chance to make money.

    Try playing smaller money, playing big money is for whenever one has a big cushion and proven record of wining small money. Do not risk your trading wellbeing. Eventually, with a consistent method, you will get ahead as you show love for trading. Let us be patient and stay within the confines of our skills as they are today. Let us weed out, one by one, our mental handicaps. This is the royal road to become a master trader.

  149. TraderPete

    Did Gary fall off a cliff? Don’t you think we need a new thread or article, or something new and thrilling? 😎

  150. earthkitten

    Okay. Avi Gilburt just wrote that gold has bottomed & about to
    take off. Gary says gold is going to drop like a rock. Let’s see
    who’s right. My money is on Gary.

    1. Gary Post author

      Not like a rock. Probably a slow grind down as the dollar rallies. After almost 6 months of going down I think it’s time for the dollar to rally for a bit.

  151. earthkitten

    Thanks Gary. I’m in your camp & can’t agree
    with Avi about GLD going parabolic to 143 after
    it breaks 123.

  152. zkotpen

    KHT,

    Good point!

    I didn’t want my “go away” comment to be misconstrued. But I did want it to be direct and to the point — as sometimes what I write has too many words.

    Reading your remark, I realize what I should have written in that first comment: ”

    “Go away, troll!”

    Live & learn — enjoy the new moon!

  153. Goild

    No, no, gold is heading up to tag the upper trend line, near $1300, of a small triangle formation.
    Then it may drop a bit, to go up for another coiling cycle and then to definitely breakout. Which way I do not know.
    Simple put, one of the most powerful patterns is the channel, in this case a converging channel (triangle).
    The forces to break out this converging channel are unlikely to be present so soon.

    Watch OIL, if it is reversing not way GOLD will drop so soon.

    Realize that GOLD and miners are currently not so strongly correlated.
    Each has its own agenda.

  154. Goild

    Looking closer at GOLD’s coil, it may about to run out of coiling power, the spring is to be released, it may tag $1275 to release a great deal of coiling energy.

  155. Goild

    TNX is about to beak support.
    The charts, TNX and UUP, suggest this should send USD down.
    TIP has been sideways coiling.
    It appears that something is about to happen.
    We are reaching the edge of the cliff.

    1. Nada

      This is what happens when you think you are smarter than the market and post comments as you know exactly what an asset is going to do.

Comments are closed.