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This has been reflected in the challenge, only one player has managed to add significantly to his portfolio this month.
Short silver futures at 17.07.
Exiting August 🙂
Something is brewing in the mining complex folks! Three of my explorers exploded last week.
Kootenay Silver +20% last week
Kenadyr Mining +20% yesterday
Silver Bull Resources +30% yesterday
That is a very different path from a few months back!
Stockmarkets looking weak imo …
You’re basing mining complex action on the back of three penny stocks? Come on….
No Homer, Steff is right. Explorers are highly speculative and can be an early indicator of bullish sentiment returning to the metals sector. When money starts flowing into the small explorers its sometimes an excellent sign the market could be ready to turn up so we look on this as a very positive development. During early 2016 when gold was moving back up there were fortunes being made on those little companies. Ten and twenty baggers as they say. Its all about the type of guys who play them. They sniff out the opportunity well ahead of the institutional money and retail crowd. Even the Explorer ETF’s like GOEX tripled in value in just a few months in 2016 but guys with good selective exposure obviously did a lot better. Of course you can also lose a bundle buying the wrong companies. Its a specialist area for sure so take care.
Correct Ped, of course the spike up is based on fundamentals/good drill news, but the response from the market is different. No news from Kenadyr yet but you know how it works, insiders leaking info ahead of a news release being published.
I am watching 30 explorers and many of them are up a great deal. I regret that I sold Garibaldi at 20c, Novo Res at $2 and so on and so forth …
I have been following a dozen or so on TSX and they have been behaving a bit better. Just like you I am positive though a bit cautious. Good luck!
Actually Ped, penny-stocks are easily manipulated and are in no way indicators of a sector’s sentiment or reality. I can go buy 20,000 shares for a couple of grand and move the needle easily.
I used the word “explorer” 4 times in my post above and never used the words “penny stocks” once. Steffmeister also prefaced his post with the word EXPLORER so try not to get distracted by the fact some are in the penny category.
Don’t get distracted by what they call themselves, you can call it what you want as well it doesn’t change the fact that they are penny stocks and can be gone in a week. Most of the time, all they are “Exploring” are how many shares they can sell to gullible people. All an “explorer” needs is a shovel and a wheelbarrow along with a claim staked.
Hi Steffmeister
Why exiting miners in august if they are doing well?
I don’t follow
haha exiting->exciting, English is not my native tongue 🙂
Hell no I’ve been long since May and that is not about to change anytime soon!
it makes sense, thanks
Good morning,
Today is a Thursday which is supposed to be a strong day either way.
Things do not smell right for gold.
Be careful; with falling knifes.
Let us make money today.
Let us get into LABU?
I added to my LABD this AM at $6.56
Added again at $6.51
Middle band is 61.11 – that can be a good place to enter. It would be safer to wait to see if it can move back above the 50 day.
BBK
Thanks.
The market is very slow.
Traders must be waiting for Jason Hole.
I guess no moves today after Jason Hole results come.
The market may go down. It is like flipping a coin, likely a loaded coin to lose,
Goild — I don’t wanna hear about Jason’s hole thx.
“Tell that to the JNUG 23 folks. They have been using the principles of “cost average down” since Sept of 2016 with no luck.”
NADA — I’m gonna go ahead and call baloney on that one. There were ample opportunities to get out at break-even or with a minimal loss, if you know what you’re doing.
THERE IS ALWAYS A BOUNCE my friend. It may not be the bounce of a century but there is always a bounce to pull you out of a sticky situation. The problem is most traders don’t have the foresight and/or aren’t mentally and emotionally prepared.. That’s a skill one can only acquire over time 🙂
I call baloney on averaging down – it is a losing strategy period! The only time an investor should average in is on the upside and that should only be done in moderation.
I’m gonna shove that baloney sandwich up your butt blue 🙂 I’m telling you that it’s a strategy that’s worked for me in the past and you’re arguing when you should be listening.
So let me explain.. It’s a strategy that works if price is already extended and if Sentiment has reached an extreme. Nothing is full proof of course and that’s why you also have to time your trade accordingly; it’s a calculated move that takes into account risk vs reward right from the start.. meaning you can’t just buy on a whim and cost average down to save your skinny little Ass if the trade goes against you!
Just changing the terminology can result in a paradigm shift. I buy and sell incrementally. I buy at what I believe is a good price with the plan of buying more later. If the price drops and I still like the story then I buy more and the same logic for if it goes up. It is rare that I buy the full amount of what I plan on investing on the first purchase. It helps protect risk. Sometimes I don’t have as large of a position as I had planned but that is ok. Patience and timing.
Of course its possible to average down at key levels and get back to even. I think everyone has used this strategy at some time or another. There are a lot of variables, but I would assume most do not do well using this strategy. I
t goes without saying this does not apply to you, since you are a self pronounced “awesome chartist” 🙂 BTW, where is your stop on DUST?
This late in the cycle I’m buying more shares. Again, it’s important to exercise a bit of patience.
GDX is currently bumping up against RESISTANCE. I warned of the possibility of another pop up that would likely turn into an exhaustion candle, so currently keeping an eye on momentum.. I could be buying a second tranche tomorrow or today just before close.
And as for my ‘self proclaimed’ AWESOME CHARTIST 🙂 I’ve earned it and have made many mistakes along the way.. but eventually you get really good at something.
This is one of the reasons I’ve simplified the way I trade – including what I trade – so that I could become really really good at a few things and do away with the rest.
You know that old saying —- Jack of all trades, master of none?
It’s a great saying in life, but should most definitely NOT APPLY when you’re trading the Markets and/or investing a ton of money 🙂
Gary is also REALLY good at a few things, doesn’t bother with the rest, and makes consistent money.
Yes, waiting as well. As discussed, I added Oct GLD puts a few days and still hold late Nov calls as well. I plan on holding the Nov calls through the DCL, for upside surprise and will add more once we finally get something noticeable. I asked about DUST stop in case this cycle gets stretched.
No “hard stops” at the moment because momentum is key for me at this point.
If Miners break above Resistance with ENOUGH CONVICTION then I’ll have to exit and re-assess, or cost average down and pull out on a bounce to break-even and/or minimize damage. That’s my plan.
I give the good with the bad. I tried TVIX again yesterday near the close. Had a huge move after hours and I made a mistake and did not sell. LUCKY to get out in the green today. PHEW. Bullet dodged there trying to short. Sold DUST the AM, no sense trying to get cute when it looks like the miners and metals are on the verge of a big uptick? Not buying long or short right now. Still holding my WEAT. Dead money so far.
BBK
Since the market is slow and kind of boring there is time to chit chat.
Can you tell us about your trading style?
You mentioned that you make very few trades.
I’m and IBDer. Been subscribing to Investor’s Business Daily since the early 90’s. I try and pick a few good winners and concentrate on them. It’s difficult to stay on top of a number of stocks. I also mostly stick with growth stocks but will roll the dice with the leveraged ETF’s.
$HUI’s 100 WMA will positively cross the 200 WMA in the next week or two. Last time that happened was 7 years ago.
The Dow is destined to tag its 100 DMA before the correction is over.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p59581973384&a=541030906&listNum=1
Dow is going to 17000 and that should be healthy for the bull
Interesting WSJ article on the improving finances of big miners.
http://ca.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=75500759
That godamm Facebook comes down to my break even point and then rallies. One day it’s going to drop like a stone but i am losing patience and it ties up too much money being short.
The last 3 weeks that FB has been down has come on way below average volume so don’t look for it to drop too much more. If the volume begins to pick up as it sells off then there could be a bigger sell off but right now there is not a lot of selling going on. It’s a lot safer to short stocks that have triggered some sell signals vs something like FB which is a pretty healthy looking stock and a little over 200 funds have purchased it the past year.
Bigdaddy, you should look at buying an in the money option instead of shorting. That would tie up a lot less cash.
This board has been dead the past few days. Everybody must be on holidays or something.
Just waiting BD. The move is coming and I think most here are biding their time and not taking any risk until the metals show their hand. There was a break lower (fall below support) on the silver chart today and Ex-Nihilo bought it short @ 17.07 as noted above. We don’t have a confirmation on gold yet. Maybe we get our answers by tomorrow but it usually doesn’t work that way since the charts just love weekend suspense.
Just went thru the whole list of miners in IBD’s mining industry group and nothing much to report. There are a few miners holding up and should the miners start to rally again they will probably lead. One thing to watch is KL – Kirkland Lake Gold LTD out of Toronto. It is a new issue and it shows that last Sept. qtr. 79 funds owned it and now the number is 212 so the institutions are buying. The June qtr. EPS % change was +240% compared to the March qtr. which was +50%. Sales % change for the June qtr. was 107% vs 110% for March.
Thanks BLUE!
That speaks to my stealth accumulation that may be occurring in miners over the last many months. Volume has looked dead, but maybe it’s been a slow stealthy trickle in for the big boys? Just something that I believe may have been occurring. Not sure though.
It’s a mixed bag as far as fund ownership goes. A number of miners show less funds owned it in the June quarter vs last September’s quarter. GDX shows 7 more funds own it now vs last Sept. qtr. and GDXJ shows 4 more funds own it.
I am loaded to the eyeballs with stock market shorts. this sucker better go down .
I sold all my shorts today EXCEPT still holding LABD. Still see potential for that to play out.
600m BOW on the SPY yesterday says otherwise.
It looks like the gold mining stocks are holding up. I put a buy order in for GDXJ.
Not a good idea to be buying Miners this late in the cycle unless you’re looking for a day trade.
Gold below 1290 is a technical break down on the hourly chart (futures). We have already seen a brief spike down to 1289.30 today and the chart looks like it will retrace to that low by end of day. So we may have gold confirming what silver already told us but it still needs to hold there or fall lower to be considered more than just an overshoot of support.
What can you say Christian. It’s just classic buying at the top with impatient investors. The majority must be wrong or the market does not work as we all know so well. I actually started out doing the same thing. Blew an account to smithereens 🙂 once but lived to talk about it and started again with a new respect for the guys I used to laugh at who seemed so cautious.
Looks like the Jackson Hole pop is going into the Black Hole.
I told you a couple of days ago!!!
I don’t recall saying otherwise.
good for you then …
BBK
Do you get into individual stocks or only into ETF’s?
If you get into a single stock, what percent of your portfolio you put in?
Thanks.
When I am buying growth stocks I deal with individual companies. When it comes to miners I mostly deal with the ETF’s with maybe an individual miner or two if they look good – like the one I mentioned earlier – KL.
Right now I am working to fund a Primary Offering/New issue/Public float, my first ever. A Swedish miner operating in Russia along the Silky Road or nearby. I do not know the political risk in Russia but it could/should/would not be that much worse than in Mexico or Africa. Vlad Putin seems nice when he is interviewed by Oliver Stone 🙂
Auriant Mining, 15,5Moz, 89million shares (fully diluted?) and MCAP 25million p/e ratio is 1.4. It looks cheap to me. Listed at NASDAQ OMX (First North).
http://www.auriant.com/eng/
my first ever in the mining business, in the wild 2000 dot com bubble there were a new issue every week …
I imagine there are a lot of permit fees and other filing costs (aka BRIBES) in Mother Russia.
all exploration and production permits are in place to 2027-2031.
Top of the day in the miners?
Who is brave to short them?
There seems to be a lot of the good commentators missing (Mustang Sally, Don, and a few others). Has Mr.Savage banned them for some reason?
Mustang Sally disappeared when her trades ideas went against her. It was easier to disappear than own up to making a mistake with predictions. If tomorrow gold went to 1180, she would return and blow up the blog. It happens every day on thousands of forums across the world. Folks make predictions, trade goes against them and they disappear. If trade is a winner, they come back and blow up the board and talk about how terrific of a trader they are.
I got 200 shares shorting NUGT at $33.56.
Okay, I got a fill for 400 shares of GDXJ. Wish me luck!
BD – take a look at SJM – Smuckers – yeah, it’s not a glamourous stock like FB but it showed up on the stocks on the move list today in the down category. It would be a much safer short than something like FB. SJM has been in a downtrend since last August. Since the December qtr. 56 funds have unloaded it. The next time it rallies up to the declining 50 day that would be a much safer place to short than a stock trading well north of the 50 day. In this case the 50 day will be resistance. One thing to note it that it does pay a dividend so you don’t want to be short on ex-dividend day.
Ok again :
Steffmeister
August 23, 2017 at 12:52 am
What if the tap of funny money has been shut off !? Then it’s only a matter of time before US-index are heading down …
NIKKEI is the first, maybe SPX is the second one?
Only time will tell …
I added 200 at $33.67.
Nugt to drop 24%… so I am still short with 100K in JDST…
Covered to even.
Try again 200 shares at $33.58.
Covered.
Should be happy with half lunch money for such day.
MegaMind,
You are brave.
Best wishes to you.
Doc Copper has been on a tear and coming up againist resistance could pull the prop from AG.
Has anyone else noticed that the transportation indexes are breaking down (IYT, DJT)? That is usually a bad omen for the SM in general.
Yes, there are definitely some red flags out there. The Nasdaq has 9 distribution days and the S & P has 5. I can remember a time when IBD would have had the markets “In Correction” mode with that many distribution days but times have changed and the way they characterize markets has changed or maybe adapted is a better way to say it.
MegaMind,
Why not reduce risk to 50K.
If you are right then you can add the 50K.
If you are wrong then the pain will be less.
Also you may have a chance to add the 50K if an undercut takes place.
WEAT jumped +$0.07 with almost zero volume.
Someone really wanted to get in. No more sellers.
The miners are today relatively getting ahead from gold.
Beware of a bull trap.
GDX:GLD looks pretty good.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3AGLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p40621348495&a=541050938&listNum=1
GDXJ:GLD in no man’s land. Expect crazy action soon IMO.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ%3AGLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p77856639585&a=541050973&listNum=1
Don’t look now but there is a HURRICANE in the gulf. GUSH and UWT could be moving up nicely next week due to a shut down off shore.
If it hasn’t impacted them by now it probably wont.
Crawling along the bottom of the channel..
https://i.imgur.com/jwXkvaW.png
So you’re saying there’s still a chance–to the moon! I would take the top of that channel too.
What about that?
GOLD falling, miners reluctant to fall.
1307 – will sell 75% of position
1316 – out remaining 25%
Wait for it:
https://i.imgur.com/4b6wBCD.png
Regardless, I would rather see gold lower before higher to dig out the DCL. However, as you might have noticed, gold has been spending a lot of time consolidating. I think we see another push higher before a larger correction. I see max correction area 1260ish for now.
Miners might sink tomorrow.
Who knows.
dboz – GUSH looks like it has bottomed across multiple timeframes….though sometimes they trick you and put in 1 more leg down….but this would be close enough to make profit still.
UWT looks headed down to me at this point on the longer timeframes though hourly looks like a bounce soon.
Looked like that last week too then we had a 10% up day. Energy is tough. I am holding GUSH in my personal account since I stole some shares pre market one day for 15.11.
Wow – nice score there. Yes – when I mean bottomed – I mean for a bounce. Then we’ll see if it can get past the 50DMA. One step at a time.
Yeah, I think GUSH could move into the 17 range. A lot of resistance coming right soon. GUSH is easy to get burned by so it’s tough to hold IMO. Usually just try to do a quick hitter but I have enough slack here to let it run. Premarket buying on big overnight drops has panned out very well the last few months. See my TVIX trade from a day or two ago. $1.70.
Congrats on your success. How do you know the overnight drop won’t go further down post your premarket buy? Just based on charts?
UWT inverse head and shoulders and bouncing off its 50 DMA. Looks like its going up (sorry to disagree).
Man, talk about boring!
Had you bought WEAT yesterday at 6.40, you would be up over 1% today already. Could set your stop at 6.40 break even and let it roll. If it goes up, $, if it goes down, you are out and no worse for trying. Not pumping this at all, just pointing it out. You have to be willing to take some risk for the rewards.
6.50 WEAT.
This is what you want to see – WEAT makes a lower low this week but then rallies off that low and is now trading in the upper half of the weekly trading and volume is kicking in – it appears a reversal is in play but we wont know for sure until Friday’s close.
A little birdie says backup the truck on Aug 29th.
What do you mean Nada? Back up the truck for what? More specifics please. TY.
Utilizing Hurst Cycles, that date referenced is the timing band for a “potential” turn. I am already long in Jan 18 calls, but I like being early to the party.
I think she was asking are you talking about gold or WEAT. I was curious too. You have a chart of the Hurst cycle on the trade that you can post by any chance. Thanks man.
Yes, I was referring to wheat. Here is the chart;
https://i.imgur.com/NDFbWwP.jpg
Thanks Nada.
Stock market whipsaw is just brutal. Up and down in a narrow zone just chews everyone up both directions. Impossible.
Unless something really juicy comes along, I think I am sitting all cash for the contest for now. Energy could be perking up but its so volatile with whipsaw action, I don’t think it is worth entering right now.
2:00 PM is coming.
Beware of falling knifes.
Same deal in miners and metals. Up and down in narrow zone, could break either direction. Brutal UNLESS you get it right. I thought I had it with DUST but got scared after sitting for too long without moving.
Out JNUG today, plan to reload on the next dip under 18
Aug 24 – buy 50% JNUG 18.89
Aug 22 – buy 50% JNUG 18.27
Aug 18 sold 100% JNUG 18.80
Aug 2 buy 50% JNUG 18.20
Jul 31 buy 50% JNUG 18.59
Jul 28 sold 100% JNUG 18.69
Jul 27 buy 50% JNUG 17.61
Jul 27 buy 50% JNUG 17.98
Jul 24 sold 100% DUST 30.95
Jul 18 buy 50% DUST 30.19
Jul 17 buy 50% DUST 30.80
Jul 14 sold 50% JNUG 16.92
Jul 13 buy 50% JNUG 16.08
Jul 11 sold 100% JNUG 16.56
Jul 7 buy 50% JNUG 15.03
Jul 6 buy 50% JNUG 16.46
Jun 30 sell 50% DUST 31.48
Jun 27 buy 50% DUST 30.05
correction
Aug 24 – SOLD 50% JNUG 18.89
Aug 22 – buy 50% JNUG 18.27
Aug 18 sold 100% JNUG 18.80
Aug 2 buy 50% JNUG 18.20
Jul 31 buy 50% JNUG 18.59
Jul 28 sold 100% JNUG 18.69
Jul 27 buy 50% JNUG 17.61
Jul 27 buy 50% JNUG 17.98
Jul 24 sold 100% DUST 30.95
Jul 18 buy 50% DUST 30.19
Jul 17 buy 50% DUST 30.80
Jul 14 sold 50% JNUG 16.92
Jul 13 buy 50% JNUG 16.08
Jul 11 sold 100% JNUG 16.56
Jul 7 buy 50% JNUG 15.03
Jul 6 buy 50% JNUG 16.46
Jun 30 sell 50% DUST 31.48
Jun 27 buy 50% DUST 30.05
Sorry, but I don’t understand why you are posting all those trades. What is the point of doing that? It seems like a waste of your time.
these are my real-time real trades I actually took, and also part of the challenge contest
Looks like you did pretty well there.
Recall that yesterday the miners rallied at the day’s end.
It might be that today they are in the same mood.
Well, commodities are poised to break higher, with momentum on the stochastics pointing up. Obviously the wrong words uttered by the gnome tomorrow could make mince meat out of this nascent trend, but right now it is setting up for a bit of a rally IMO.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GCC&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p33061109903&a=541060227&listNum=1
Looks similar to me in the charts. If DUST breaks its 7D PSAR at $24.61 tomorrow – likely more downside.
I think copper just hit its top at 3.048 precisely. Let’s see if that holds or price breaks out above resistance. It would be amusing if copper tops the same day Weat bottoms. Not sure why but you know, everything is strangely connected in the markets and it sometimes tells you to look elsewhere for other turns or big changes.
looks like it is. I would short it from here.
Toro TTC???
Energy is not treating me nice, but, I’ve been beat many times, holding on…
And JNUG takes a taste of $19 for the 1st time since 8/1.
AT
I enjoy seeing your trades.
Please share how you decide when to take a trade.
nothing special, just a combination of trend lines and partly cycles (dcl, icl) learned from Gary, and spotting days with good dips for buys or jumps like today;
I don’t day trade, only checking a few times a day, one tab being open at http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/jnug/real-time which is nicely showing the price in the header as well even if you are in a different browser screen, … so only sometimes I can spot those, the rest just wait patiently in cash for the right buy or for the right sell;
I am still in recovery mode after last Oct JNUG 23 (now would be JNUG 92) when I went all in and lost big; the recovery is slow, but is happening;
I like the trading range where Gold is trading, it is much more predictable and easier to trade;
Any JNUG dip under 18 as close to 17 has been a “safe” buy and hold, and that may continue for some time.
Good luck!
By extending WEAT’s lower trend line the next bottom is revealed: $6.00
I will keep that noted. Thanks!
Did MUSTANG SALLY give up?
He used to want to know the contest results on a daily basis, now he does not even come in here. Assuming he blew up his account already and is in ruins. As someone comically posted today, just wait until the last day of the contest and enroll and you will probably win as everyone will be under water! LOL I liked that strategy.
tqqq hanging above ma 50. tvix stopped cold at 50 day ma. dia > ma 50, spy and nas bobbing around 50 day ma. soxl stuck in a tight range. Boring! pms and oils likewise. Cash could be the place to be for now.
nice move up in labu.
Been adding to LABD all day.
long uslv here , front running tomorrow, if we dip into sep 5 or so no worries imo. lining up like a gold pop to 1320 .
I don’t think so Jimsee. Stock markets look ready to go back up to me. Copper set to fall with gold and silver. The September market correction that has not happened yet is probably the most telegraphed event all year and pessimism is again getting extreme. That means we go up on short covering as often is the case.
maybe ped – I follow my cycles – right 70% of time with technical selection. hedging most times – not really possible in the challenge – so big bet poker is the main thing there,lol. I will short a pop in the am in gold via /gc puts – so as always make some both ways or at least lose less when really wrong.
AT
Thank you for commenting.
What I like is that you have a method. Go in 50% perhaps add 50% later.
Simple and good.
BOW
8/22 – GLD 185m
8/24 – GLD 121m
Sleep with one eye open bears.
Ha, ha laughed the bear! Comex gold contracts settle next Monday and meanwhile too many traders are being railroaded into the belief gold will break out higher yet because every expert on the planet (plus his trusty dog) are shouting from the rooftops that stock markets are going to crash in September. So gold MUST be going up and they are betting in droves they will win big starting next week. But no, so very sorry. They are all suckers as usual and being drowned in a media frenzy of stock market negativity promoted by all the usual billionaires with so much time on their hands to rub worry beads in public and make like they have special insight. This is such a racket! And everyone falls for it every damned time. Gold is going down.
I will sleep well.
I wouldn’t be so sure. The dollar is in trouble and may be until after the debt ceiling in October. This could cause abnormally long cycles in gold.
Your perma bear bias on gold has been a better contrary signal lately than anything else.
Not possible Gary because we have been trading sideways in gold for ages without breaking out or breaking down. Even your title in this thread says it all “CHART OF THE DAY – BORING AUGUST”.
The only thing we await now is the final verdict.
And when next week comes you are going to find yourself on the wrong side of this trade as gold takes a very long overdue slide back down the ramp on its way to 1200 dollars just like I said (where quite frankly it belongs since gold is overpriced anyway).
So by all means, trade against me if I am a contrary indicator.
You have been on the wrong side of the gold market since Dec. 2015. This is a new bull market and a new intermediate cycle advance began in July. It won’t top until October or early November. Any correction until then should be bought.
What are you talking about? I have not been on the wrong side since 2015. I only had two losing trades all year Gary. Just because I insist we are still technically within a bear market channel does not mean I am holding all shorts all the time. You must know better than that. I happily trade both sides of gold. My bias is to the bear side though until further notice.
I will tell you when its a bull market (and we ain’t there yet).
Hey Gary, Martin agrees with me. No gold break out. Not yet anyway. A short while back he posted this on his site so I am in good company:
“Gold has not broken out and I have given the number where that becomes a possibility. We are not yet there. Events on the horizon are the critical issue. The world is not ready yet and the stock market also reflects this pending threshold. Socrates comment is thus concerned with the immediate outlook and until gold gets through key points, there is no breakout. The extreme target is not due on this cycle but the next.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-8/
I think after Yellen speaks, market and gold both go up. I still think 1316 before top. My wish is were are nice and blooding in the morning, so I can sell my puts into weakness and then add to my long position. Once we hit upside target of 1316, I dump calls and add some puts for the DCL hunt. Target for DCL is 1260ish
Thats my hope, but what is the chance I get what I wish for? SM doesn’t give a $hit about my hopium.
Well folks.. I said I was one hell of a chartist and I meant it.
I just spotted a MONSTER technical set up in ERX, big enough to sink the TITANIC — you’ve been warned 🙂
https://www.tradingview.com/x/RdaVL4VK/
that’s would be nice, because it’s not funny for me to hold it for abt 2 weeks…
Is that an iceberg at the bottom?
Ha! I was wondering what the hell that was, but it makes since now since you are the penguin sitting out there waiting for oil to crash 🙂
LOL, oh now I get it. Not a fan of the name tag though.
Give it up Christian!
C’mon dude! I love penguins 🙂
I even included Leonardo Dicaprio and Kate Winslet on the bow of the ship, just like the Movie, Lol 🙂
I was upset about where you put your anchor. Slowly getting over it though. 🙂
Like I noted yesterday there is no volume to substantiate your claims. Average weekly volume is 13 mm and with only one day left in the trading week ERX has only traded 6.58 mm shares.
ERX may very well rally back to the 50 day but keep in mind that the 50 day has been resistance since the last week of January of this year. This move may be Hurricane Harvey related and nothing more.
Blue — Could it be that something is getting lost in translation with you? I’d say probably.
First off – and Gary did warn you about this once – you’re putting too much emphasis on Volume. A trend change doesn’t always start with a sudden surge in volume; sometimes it creeps up on you.
Second.. When I took the ERX trade I was simply looking for a swing trade. XLE had just suffered a bloodbath and the chart looked over-extended so I pulled the trigger and took a shot.
So with all that in mind, any chance you could stop being such a negative Nancy and just enjoy my Art work?? Which, by the way, was meant as a joke more than anything 🙂
Gary doesn’t get the volume thing – Jason G. at Sentiment Trader told him volume doesn’t mean anything. No Bull market or uptrend has ever started without a rally and then a confirmation and the key ingredient to both is volume. And that is based upon 50 years of computer generated research so you are going against that. Now, not every rally/confirmation results in a bull market.
Agree, volume kept in context of where the stock is in the scheme of things is an element to trading patterns.
e.g., Volume dies off as supply is absorbed and picks up at the turn in signs of strength, Buying and selling climaxes.
Oil is probably going to move tomorrow with the news. We shall see.
Wow! talk about a long term BIG inhs:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FQVLF&p=D&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p63610046526
First Quantum a copper stock. Wonder what the p.o. is on something like this. Good sign for commodities.
Newmont; Looks like a top to me.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=nem
Barrick Gold — Multiple failed attempts to break out over resistance at the 200 SMA during August.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=abx
Thank you for this chart Pedestrian. I have been iffy about taking any new positions in PM. After seeing this chart I have decided to take the plunge. A very interesting charge indeed though my reading of this graph is diagonally opposed to yours. Good luck.
It’s not a cup and handle if that’s where you are going with it. And I doubt it fills the gap in September either.
We will see my friend. Once again I have become positive on gold.
I will be greatly disappointed if abx does not close above 20 at least once before January.
chart and not “charge”
Randgold — An expanding wedge. Just a few more bucks and its a megaphone in danger of collapse.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GOLD
Euro monthly has topped out. Sorry gold bugs but this is not the news you wanted to hear. Oh dear!
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6E&p=m1
If we ever do get a dip just buy. It’s that simple. In the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle price doesn’t stay oversold very long before the next leg up begins.
So if the 5 day RSI on gold drops to oversold, BUY, BUY, BUY.
Well sure, as a short term buy no problem. But as a buy and hold forget it unless the technical picture gets a lot prettier. I haven’t really bothered to get into the gold technical’s in my comments lately because its hopeless with a crowd of bulls who are blinded by what they believe rather than the facts staring them in the face.
But look at the MACD crossover for one example. It’s turning down from the top of its range. RSI while not in oversold territory is still going into decline despite price holding up which tells us there is not a lot of conviction or that sellers have moved ahead of the chart.
The CCI is turning down. Bollingers are narrowing with price having already pierced the upper band 3 or 4 times and there is a candle on top of the price peak. TRIX is rolling over, Stochastics turning down from a top, Money Flow at dead neutral…….it’s not a picture of a bullish turn coming.
You need to believe one of a few things to also think gold is heading much higher anytime soon. That Kim Kong will start a war or that the debt ceiling negotiations will fail or the stock market will crash. All seem likley lately but I doubt any of them happen.
So barring a political or domestic economic disaster gold is going down for the count.
Can’t any of you people on this site see that?
Please go and check your indicators. Check your channels. Check your chart pattern, cycles and timing band. Every damned way to Sunday you look at gold its going down. At most it might see a last little hurrah spike-up a few bucks but that will be no comfort at all when it reverse down taking the fantasy of every gold bug with it.
I must spend too much time reading this site! Some of you people almost had me convinced and doubting myself. No more though. This is time to get short because both metals and miners are overdue for a correction.
As an aside, gold has now turned bearish on the hourly chart confirming what silver told us earlier in the day. It did not actually need to fall below 1290 as I originally surmised because it has worked itself through the process in time instead of just price.
Does any one know the time the SM will learn from JH?
Is it 2:00 PM?
It appears that Ms. Yellen speaks at 10:00 AM.
No televised speeches. This is a release of transcripts after the event so no idea what time those come out.
Gold vs. Bitcoin anyone? Here are my thoughts… 😉
https://surfcity.co/2017/08/24/gold-versus-bitcoin-btc/
Thanks Surfer. Agree wholeheartedly on the Bitcoin versus gold debate. This crypto might bubble and pop one day but between now and then its a whole lot livelier and exciting than gold. You don’t hear buyers crying the blues yet either but instead there is a real sense of excitement and anticipation. Keep us posted if the mood hits you. I am always interested in hearing more.
PS: So you are bearish gold? Your comments seemed non-committal about an impending turn down.
Ped, my short term view on Gold is bearish as I think it is likely headed into its next TCL or DCL. I do, however, expect it to be a higher low which will confirm that early July hosted an Intermediate Low. I am also concerned that the miners (GDX & GDXJ) Intermediate Cycle is not in sync with Gold right now.
Most cycle analysts only follow Gold and this usually works fine but there are times when I find that the cycles of the metal and miners diverge.
I certainly can relate to that Surf. There is a focus in the gold world on just that single major chart (gold daily) that always perplexes me. I cannot understand how anyone can get a proper read on precious metals without also running lines on miners, currencies, T-bonds and the miner indexes (just for starters). I scan hundreds of charts a day looking for the slightest inconsistencies and even then I occasionally come away perplexed. But at least I am not guessing!
Keep up the good work. Always appreciated.
Thank you Surf City. How low will gold go in your opinion? Do you have a time frame in mind?
Vin, Golds last two Trading or Daily Cycle lasted 40 days or longer so I if we are heading into a TCL/DCL that timeframe should be considered. We are on day 33 now by my count and Gold is consolidating sideways for now in what looks like a Bull Flag or Pendant.
These are often half way patterns but not always. I am sitting in cash waiting for a direction to be set but I do think we are headed lower based on my cycle analysis.
Here is a more detailed analysis from last Friday:
https://surfcity.co/2017/08/18/gold-and-gdx-trading-cycle-update-4/
Your comments are highly appreciated, my friend. Wishing you the best.
I just saw a chart of abx posted by Pedestrian. To me it looks like a point close to breakout though he posted it in support of his feelings that golds are headed down.
At this point I willing to bet on golds, and your comments have been a positive factor. Thank you.
I really can’t see golds not moving with the metal over a longer period, even a few months.
I really can’t see golds not moving with the metal over a longer period, even a few months.
Keep your finger on the trigger Bit Coin will look like a pharma stock eventually. “Air- to-Fakie” https://youtu.be/on_uXc29n_U
Perhaps but I have had some very tasty trades on it lately…. 😉
And I can verify that …. 😎 $$$$
Good Morning 🙂
This pitchfork seems to be working, maybe a low on the 6th of September but I wouldn’t count on it. Remember G-V kicks in again the 3rd of Sept.
http://farm5.staticflickr.com/4370/36791562035_0ebd6de7d0_b.jpg
And my bullish call is backed up by Bo Polny!
https://youtu.be/PJCvb1bN3Iw
I hope that he, for once, nail it this time 😛
Have a nice weekend I am off to the golf course.
Thanks Steffmeister and happy returns to you!
HCL for Transports –> they are on the way up to shake and find resistance at 200dma as broad indexes rise to their DCHs.
I think broad indexes will not see a higher highs until Transports find their YCL first below May’s ICL.
Exited WEAT yesterday. Don’t have the patience right now. Better opportunities for my money elsewhere.
dboz
Hopefully you will not regret exiting WEAT.
It is to risky and there is no need to take such risk.
There are likely many good deals to consider instead.
Perhaps XLE is tuning around.
dboz
On a second thought the real issue on WEAT is to trade well.
for me, exiting WEAT was the right think to do as one would reinforce into the brain the command to exit, to execute stop loss, and not to get into hopium. The probabilities do not look right for WEAT.
In addition, getting into a trade takes time and energy. We better devote them to finding high probability trades.
GOLD is hot.
JNUG just leaped over 19 too.
I’m trying to post a new video pointing out this very possibility but my internet connection is running slow today. It may be another hour before I have it up.
Basically the dollar is not acting right. It may not form a final ICL until after the debt ceiling in Oct. If it rolls over into another failed daily cycle then gold could continue to stretch this rally another 2-3 weeks yet.
Gold hanging in there. I wonder if it starts to run after Yellen talks today (that or it falls based on her words). But you think regardless gold will still go higher over time even if it pulls back so maybe worth buying before she talks and just holding it a few months at least.
bot /gc puts for oct as hedge – 1320 doable imo.
what will be interesting is a close > 1300 on the weekly – bears would be head scratching all weekend imo.
cycles do your stuff!! volatility is the guarantee here imo.
oooh gold – nice – the opex bastards must be desperate.
40,000 contracts. That’s the largest attack I’ve ever seen.
Not that big effect though. Already $5 up off the low.
Is this smart money unloading gold because they know something or just manipulation?
mux/ag tickers are UP fwiw – smart money ain’t what it used to be – mostly a bunch of sycophants chasing yellen’s skirt nowadays.
Gold just got Jackson holed.
sold /gc puts.
Gold green now.
Beautiful! My wish came true – my GLD puts were sold on that gorgeous spike down and now just holding GLD Nov calls.
BTW, SPY BOW delivered!
Taking advantage of the morning beat down and added some more JNUG at 18.25 for a ST play.
reload /gc puts > 1297 imo.
That was pure manipulation. The miners didn’t buy it and the breakout continues. I’ll have the video up shortly.
They spent a lot of powder for about 10 minutes of movement. LOL
Someone probably has brown underwear now sitting there wondering how to get out of those shorts. LOL
A bear market in the dollar should drive everything higher.
LABD looking good today.
So is WEAT, but I am out. Took a small loss also.
All my cryptos are doing well after Jackson Hole 🙂
That spike was a frogs hair short of .786
https://i.imgur.com/RQF5nwt.png
Dollar giving us an outside day on the daily chart and dropping into a double bottom. Don’t be fooled gold bugs. This is setting up for a dollar reversal come Monday. I can’t warn you often enough but you simply cannot trade gold properly by only using a gold chart. Its all connected. Look at what has happened on other charts to get a read for what is coming next. Instead all you people focus on that little blip on the gold chart you keep on your screen and try trading in the absence of helpful information. It is useless information because it has no context. Yes, gold went up a few bucks. But can’t you see why?
Pedestrian if I recall correctly you were the same clown who said the stock market scorch was coming then the market went up every day for months. You are a great contrarian indicator so keep posting so we can make money off your posts.
Never said scorch in my life. I think you are talking about Andru Popivich. That makes you the clown.
ped -lol – if you are a gold bug and have survived this long, you damn sure have learned how to trade. if you are not a gold bug I have no clue why you would suddenly convert now…maybe once we have cleared 1600 or so the ‘public’ will come back in.
Sure I am a goldbug. I just got clever along the way about not getting squashed. So I’m a gold bear bug!
one of the few gems the ‘operators’ give us in the market is the wonderful volatility premiums on the /gc puts – the smack downs are good and violent so hedging yields better delta than necessary to hedge an equivelant say in SPX. That’s one reason I trade the puts so often.
bot /gc puts – enough from me – good luck all 🙂
Candy from a baby…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIL&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p53239443663&a=541281661&listNum=1