560 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY – ANOTHER CHANNEL BREAKOUT

  1. dboz

    I am still very leery and cautious with the SM as a whole. For some reason I just can’t get myself to buy here. I continue to find myself struggling with commodities. It’s insanity, I know. I think the dream of a big bull ride up from the ashes was appealing,in the metals but it looks like that is going to die a slow painful death. Really frustrated with myself. The energy whipsaw is marching on for now also. Oil has been fairly stable lately but either we break out and launch here or another big decline is probably in the cards. $55.24 is still the breakout level. Still another 10% from here.

    Every time the metals get close to breaking out they flounder.The dollar has virtually gone into free fall and there is zero interest in gold and even less interest in miners. It’s like the entire markets have gone gaga which is why I can’t trust them.

    Unless you buy and sell these mini rallies you just get bled off for weeks again giving it all back. At this point it’s impossible to imagine metals or miners just taking off and running. This has been the biggest whipsaw market of all the markets.

    Same in energy. Massive swings every few days or weeks. Oil finally has a little more of a steady run but now it’s up against major resistance.

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s difficult to make money (and more importantly keep it) in choppy markets. The easy money is made in trending markets.

      Open a year long chart of the stock market, oil and gold and you tell me what is trending and where the easy money is at.

      Now you see why I keep stressing to subs to focus most or all their capital on stock market trades. It’s just too hard to make money in the other markets.

      They will have their day but until the stock bubble pops it seems unlikely that a lot of institutional money is going to chase commodities right now when they have easy money in the stock market.

  2. Goild

    Good evening/morning,

    The fact is that GDX has third place in the most volume ETF’s. This says that
    the miners have not been forgotten. Blame it on the manipulators.
    And using your own words, when the rally really starts it will leave the burned down ones well behind.

    1. Bluebellkid

      What list??? GDX’s weekly volume has not been that good for months now and the average daily volume line is declining. In January average weekly volume was approx. 322 mm and now it is around 202 mm.

  3. Goild

    OIL has rallied and gotten to depart from the daily averages. This is a good time for a recess, and GOLD is following.
    Beware of the falling knifes.
    Tonight the odds are in favor of JDST and DUST.

  4. Goild

    The big picture. Gary is in love with it.
    Good for him.
    We ants deal with crumbles.
    Put an enormous amount of effort to get a crumble.
    While all one has to do is a single trade and that will take care of all the cares. Including inflation if the FED cannot control it.
    How stupid.
    As said by Ed Saykota β€œWin or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money.”

    http://www.newtraderu.com/2015/02/17/40-best-things-ed-seykota-every-said/

  5. Steffmeister

    mmmm … waiting for 3-7th August getting close. I am long since 7th of July.

    So far reasonable good.

    Am I the only one who thinks that miners will catch a bid when summer doldrums ends?

    Very lame bearish response in many miners not reflecting the dollar decline and gold strength the past months.

    Just look at the proud Swedish/Canadian miner Lundin Gold, it’s down 10-15% since the low in gold at 1204, just pathetic no changes in fundamentals nope no nothing.

    B2Gold forked out a good report yesterday, 2months ahead of schedule building a mine, that starts up in October yepper of course MONKEYHAMMERED down -6-7% pathetic again.

    IF the market smells inflation coming, holy smokes watch out, then we would have 1450-1500dollars for gold in a heartbeat!

    It is not wise sitting on the sideline now, thats my take on all this!

    Disclaimer:
    I am more often wrong than right!

  6. MattyMan

    I use DIA and SPY on my extra sophisticated charting software… On weekly charts, in LOG scale, they have not broken out of their channels… Of note, both of their 200 week moving averages are pretty well lined up with the bottom of the channels… My thought pattern is for an upside test of the upper channel, followed by a downside test this fall/winter, THEN the bubble phase… Wouldn’t be surprised for it to look a lot like the end of 2015 and the start of 2016…

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t think so. 2016 was a 7 year cycle low. The next one isn’t due for 5 more years.

      It seems pretty clear that as long as Trump is in office corrections are going to be aborted quickly. His best defense against the media is that the stock market just keeps going up and people are making money. He’s not going to let that falter.

      1. MattyMan

        Just tried something fun on the DIA weekly chart… Drew Fib retracement from 2015 low to my expected interim target of 230.00… 61.8% retrace comes in at 200 week and bottom of channel… AND lines up with massive support at around 180.00

  7. Nada

    Curious how the ISM numbers are going to play out, I am not sure if the 90m on GDX yesterday was bought on the dip in the earlier morning or if it was at the close. Not a big number, but lets see.

    1. Nada

      If you have an account with td ameritrade. why do you still need real time data? Download their thinkorswim platform on mobile and or desktop. I like tracking xauusd (spotgold) so I use trade inceptor for that purpose. Let me know if you have any questions about tda/thinkorswim. Cheers

    1. Gary Post author

      There is no non confirmation.

      They both closed at new highs in July.

      As long as any secondary correction holds above the previous then Dow theory is on a buy signal.

      The transports would have to close below the May low.

    2. Ed

      One main reason why there is big disconnect between transport and s&p is simply current stock market is so detached from real economy. Stock market should rise with better future economy expecttions. But today we have so called investors all hooked up government handouts fiat currency.

      Why I can not stand these people is that they trying make some rational behind stock bubble. I don’t mind them profiting from government induced stock market bubble but don’t say it they doing it for world’s goodness or rationalized with their limited education on Macroeconomics.

  8. Ed

    From my previous experience I noticed that BOJ will out up a stiff resistance to protect 110 handle.
    Something about 109 scare them hell. I think it all visual. 110 vs 109. There is very little distinctions in their mind between 101 and 109. Not as big as 110 and 109 at least. I can only laugh how jokers minds work. πŸ™‚

  9. Ed

    USDollar index is a fraud. It only consist of few currencies. None of India Russia Korea south Africa Brazil all emerging market countries minus China. If you combine all these currencies base on their weighted GDP US Dollar Index should be contented with a very small number. Certainly not 92. Gold price should ‘be a lot higher than 1270. That is why I tell people central banks are all ponzi .

  10. Don

    Ed, I share your frustration with investing.com. The way they use different closing prices is confusing. If you want to know how much gold is up today in terms of percentages, just use GLD as it tracks gold (cash price) quite closely.

  11. Spanky

    GLD’s 20 WMA is now slightly rising. It should be very good support going forward. If it is going to be cracked, I would expect action like at the end of August ’16 where is had to be hammered on for 5 weeks before it finally gave way. My 2 cents at least.

  12. Spanky

    The monthly chart for gld is looking pretty good, with the 20 MMA (at 119.34) crossing back above the 50 MMA (at 118.29) for the second time in 15 years last month. The monthly stochastics also are flatlined just above 50 and are dead neutral. Gold is going to make a big break one way or another soon. The monthly bollinger bands are as narrow as they have been in 10+ years. THe upper monthly BB is coming in at 130.14, which would be a not unreasonable first target for bulls this month. If we just go slideways to slightly upwards this month, the bollingers will likely narrow in even more.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=M&yr=12&mn=0&dy=0&id=p25623472538&a=537456980&listNum=1

    If we were to break below 118.29, I would probably start to worry, but the monthly chart is definitely leaning bullish by far right now.

  13. Spanky

    The monthly GDX chart is a bit less bullish than the GLD chart for one reason in my eyes. The stochastics have not yet reached severely oversold, yet are well below 50. Now, it is possible the stochastics could turn back up here and head back to overbought, but doing that before reaching oversold is something GDX has never done in its history (which albeit isnt that long). Looking at $hui, which goes back to 1996, shows that it was able to turn the stochastics back upwards (after crossing well below 50 and not hitting oversold) one time before, back in 2005.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=M&st=1996-08-01&en=today&id=p39797514931&a=537457679&listNum=1

  14. Christian

    No matter how you splice it folks the Miners performance against Gold has been WEAK as F*ck! If this is indeed the first Daily Cycle out of an ICL then Miners should be outperforming Gold without breaking a sweat. Something smells fishy and it ain’t my junk!

    Let’s see how Gold reacts when the Dollar finds a bottom and delivers a counter trend move πŸ™‚

    1. MegaMind

      Christian, If the dollar rallies, then Gold is fked because strong negative correlation…I expect another spike down in dollar before the fireworks if you will…

  15. allthatglitters

    The ICL in the precious metals is ahead of us, not behind us. No way in hell this is how the miners would be behaving rocketing out of an ICL.

    1. Nada

      Gary has made his position crystal clear and left no wiggle room to finesse himself out his call. He put a put a big matzo ball out there in regards to the metals. We will know soon enough. You know my position is short.

      1. Pedestrian

        Agree with that Nada. Gary seems to be suffering confirmation bias lately with calls that the US Dollar will just keep falling for all eternity after having declined for more than half a year already, that crude oil will keep rising based on higher-highs and higher lows (makes no sense at all to me) and that gold is about to make a big break higher when its clearly in the range for a cyclical decline based on the daily chart. We will see. I am looking for reversals in all three and crude looks like its taken the lead today. As already mentioned, the Canadian dollar has peaked so it should come as no surprise oil will start to weaken here.

        1. Gary Post author

          If you think the market is going the other way then enter the challenge and we’ll see if you actually make any money.

          Everybody wins some and loses some.

          The proof is if you win enough to consistently gain over time.

      1. Nada

        Yes miners have been total whipsaw for a while now. If the ICL is in front of us, I am not sure about it being mild. It would still need to break the low of 1204 to confirm.

        1. bluelagoon

          Funny you should respond to this Ped – I was just thinking of what you might think of the oil situation. I’m wondering if I can get DWT at close to the low during that report tomorrow and then ride it up to the next high.

          1. Pedestrian

            There is major support down in that area going back to August of last year. But if we do break down that hard there is a risk crude keeps dropping even further. Check this chart and you can see that this next decline can easily entertain the idea of 39 dollars WTI. But it will take time to get there so this would not be a short term forecast. It will matter whether the Loonie has really topped though and is going to give up most of the recent gains.
            http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=CL

            That daily WTI chart is one I really like btw. Like golds current chart you can read it comfortably as the chart looks like a cardiogram of a beating heart with the rises and falls being nicely spaced apart. We look about ready for the next decline to get underway and if it matches the left hand side of the chart the decline will take us back to the base.

            Thump-thump —- thump-thump —– thump-thump

  16. dboz

    This is how emotions cloud your performance. I bought DWT yesterday in the mid 25 range. BUT because I was getting kicked in the teeth and balls with UGAZ I kept a fairly tight stop and it pegged me by .02 cents. So 2 cents cost me 11% today. Not proud of that fact. But I was emotional yesterday, not as sure and did not want to add to a MONSTROUSLY craptastic day JUST IN CASE I was wrong on OIL. I was right but missed my payday.

    BD, give me the DUNCE award today…….PLEASE!

    1. bluelagoon

      dboz – it happens to all of us. the tight stops are killers on these leveraged ETF’s because that’s how the market makers make money – is swinging the prices up and down like a yo-yo to take your money a little at a time – or a lot lol. One thing I notice though – oil tends to follow NG….so DGAZ went up big….so I thought DWT would be next….just took a little longer than I expected.

  17. Don

    I like the look of the GDX chart. I have a stake in HGU, a double leveraged Canadian gold ETF and adding to it this morning. I think the miners are ready for some upside action.

    1. JJHarmen

      Don, I am glad you see something positive in the GDX chart. It has been difficult watching it go up and fail, repeatedly. This morning it managed to squeak past the July 26 high and then backed of to being down on the day. Frustrating.

  18. dboz

    It’s getting testy now. I have been holding JNUG and USLV. Up decently in both but now with the bleed downs I am getting to the point where a MODEST GAP DOWN event would cause losses. HATE HATE HATE HATE the metals!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    GAP DOWN CRUSHED my NUTS in UGAZ yesterday also. Was up decently. Bypassed the stops on the gap down. Did not sell straight away as I removed the stops waiting for a bounce that never came……too late, blown up and in the HOUSE OF PAIN. THAT is the danger of holding 3x ETF’s overnight.

    1. Spanky

      Playing with leverage before a trend is set is suicidal, IMO. You will never be able to hang onto your position in case we get a headfake downwards. You leverage up on DIPs in a UPTREND.

      1. dboz

        Thanks for that info depost facto. I know that. Tried to catch a bottom and failed. I will survive. 16% losses are NOT a headfake nor easy to recover from! LOL

  19. dboz

    OH, and my free subscription chances took a SERIOUS nose dive. Pool money is all tied up now and way in the hole. Gary DOES NOT HAVE AN EASY JOB! LOL

  20. Don

    The dollar looks like it wants to rally but the sell off may not be over just yet. If DXY is in a bear market it should be dropping below the May low of 91.92. If it’s not in a bear market. then the 104 level will eventually be reached again.

  21. Spanky

    BTW, the 20, 50, 100 and 200 period MAs are very tight with one another and in perfect bullish alignment now on the 2 hour GDXJ chart (20 above the 50, which is above the 100 etc) something that hasn’t really happened since the bottom in 2016.

    So if we do just slice through all of those MAs and break below the 200 period MA, it won’t really be a good sign IMO.

  22. Don

    Gary’s strong point is his SM calls but I just can’t get on board with his call for a Nasdaq breakout. His relentless call for the biotech breakout last year and the miner breakdown to the Dec lows are still too fresh in my mind.

  23. Gary Post author

    I find it kind of funny that some think the rally in miners has been weak. They have gained almost 10% in 3 weeks. During that time there have only been 4 down days, and yesterday was so mild that it probably shouldn’t even count.

    1. Gary Post author

      I would say most of you know that left translated cycles don’t behave like this, but because you expect the dollar to rally you continue to hope for a deeper pullback.

      We are well into the bubble phase in stocks and it’s being driven by the same thing that will ultimately drive the commodity sector. The dollar is crashing. The sham that has been the rally the last 6 years is over. Years of QE will now have to face the consequences.

      For a while longer it will seem as though there is no price to pay. Stocks will just continue to rise and rise and people will make lots of money. But like every other time this insane monetary policy was used it will end up creating a bubble and then when the bubble pops all that inflation will move into the commodity markets which will cause the next recession.

  24. JJHarmen

    President Trump is taking credit for the stock market performance sine the election. That is probably a tactical error on his part. Guess who the media are going to blame when the market fall apart? In fact, his chest thumping pretty much guarantees the market is going to crash.

    1. Gary Post author

      Years of QE & 0% interest rates are the reason for the stock bubble and it will continue to rise until it pops. We still have a long way to go yet. The S&P is barely 6% above the 200 DMA. That’s not a bubble. It’s not even close to a bubble.

      When the S&P gets 30-40% above the 200 then we can talk. When I start to hear people in the restaurant next to me bragging about how much they are making in the stock market then we can talk. When the ROBO ratio pegs below 40% for months at a time then we can talk.

      Until then: 10,000 will be a piece of cake, 20,000 isn’t out of the question.

  25. Spanky

    I don’t think they will be able to push GDX much past 23.06 today. If they do, that is definitely a good sign. Instead I expect tomorrow to be a big day potentially.

    This week’s candle could be very significant if we can close EOW significantly above 23.06, the declining 50 WMA. It opens the door for a run to 24.13.

  26. Gary Post author

    Look at how overbought gold has become. This doesn’t happen during the declining phase of an intermediate cycle. It occurs during the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle.

    Everyone is looking for a bounce in the dollar, and I was as well until every support zone started to fail. If the dollar breaks the 2016 low then it could go down just as fast as it went up.

    1. Nada

      Gary, if it does turn out to be a LT cycle, the behavior is not textbook. What has been lately? I have to ask a question and I am not trying to berate you, but l want to use the JNUG 23 trade last September as an example. Was that cycle behaving as a LT?

      I certainly understand that the minimum requirements have been met for an ICL. However, until we break the 6 year trend line, we will not have confirmation. We have not even put in a higher high than the previous cycle as this time. It may very well be coming, but its not as certain as you make sound.

      1. Gary Post author

        I was absolutely expecting that cycle to be left translated. I was only trying to catch a 3-5 day trade but got caught when the cycle topped much faster than I anticipated.

          1. Gary Post author

            In case you haven’ noticed by now I never have any trouble switching direction when I get the signal that a cycle has bottomed. At first I was just expecting a DCL but when the trend just kept going up it became clear that it was more than just a minor DCL. We had gotten the ICL.

            Gold did what I said it had to do. It completed a failed daily cycle and a three wave decline. So the conditions were there for an ICL.

            The only caution was that the dollar hadn’t bounced yet. When the dollar sliced right through the 38% fib it was the sign that something was seriously wrong and at that point I quit worrying about the dollar.

          2. Nada

            Gary I certainly can’t knock you for your trade idea. There is nothing wrong with that analysis. Did you go into miners or did you take UGLD/USLV?

  27. mustang sally

    Afternoon everyone>

    Alot of excitement with gold to the moon, look at the favorite gold bug site 321, how many analyst does it take, why get excited , when the hui can’t even make it above 200. with the usd dive. What happens to the hui when usd takes off.

    MS

    1. Spanky

      That’s the million $ question. one possibility, the gdx:gld ration spikes up over 1-3 days massively at the end of the gold daily cycle and then comes back down slowly or goes sideways over the downward part of gold’s cycle. That is extremely hopeful thinking though, I’ll admit, and goes against history.

      1. Spanky

        Meant to say “That’s the million $ question. one possibility, the gdx:gld ratio spikes up over 1-3 days massively at the TOP of the gold daily cycle and then comes back down slowly or goes sideways over the downward part of gold’s cycle. T

        1. Don

          Ratios are fun to speculate over but as an investment tool, rather useless.The ratio could change with gdx going up , gld going down, one going up or down faster than the other, etc. I wouldn’t obsess on them as they are not predictive.

          1. Spanky

            It’s true, it’s not predictive–no chart is. But as I showed above, every single time the GDXJ:GLD ratio has gotten this tight in the past 7 years, it has lead to a sharp drop in the mining shares.

            Could this time be different? Sure, I guess…

      1. mustang sally

        Don, Really , gold has gone up a measly 60 to what jdst is gone is peanuts. jnug should be up 30%. I would be worried if i was a gold bug. and hui can’t get above 200. Until it does relax.

        Ms

  28. allthatglitters

    Didn’t you get the memo MS? The Dollar is plummeting straight to hell and never coming back. The Peso and BBQ Coin will become the world’s new reserve currencies.

    1. Spanky

      I recognize the dollar is severely oversold and due for a bounce, but the only person I have seen talking about the doom in the dollar is you, abeit with extreme sarcasm (and maybe Peter Schiff, who has been saying the same thing since 2008).

      I don’t expect the dollar to do what the yen did between 2012 and 2014, but it is possible.

  29. Spanglish Inquisition

    Hey Gary. What is your analysis of the UsDJPY? It’s hitting a rising trend line right now. And it tends to be a driver or at least correlated to gold spot movements.

  30. Bigdaddy

    It looks like silver is taking a bit of a rest. I will look for a buy back of the 500 SLV that isold yesterday at the close but not just yet. I still have 500 shares so if it goes up, that fine too.

    1. Gary Post author

      The markets are just trying to dip down into a half cycle low. It typically arrives around day 20-25. So far this one has been very mild and the Dow and NYSE may not even produce a HCL as they just keep chugging higher.

      A close right here, back above the 10 DMA, may signal that the HCL is already finished.

    1. Spanky

      GDXJ looks pretty bullish on the 2 hour chart–note the alignment of the MAs:

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=120&b=5&g=0&id=p52434020045&a=537503803&listNum=1

      As long as it can stay above the 200 period MA, it’s a buy, IMO.

      Also, my AXU is catching a bid on higher than avg volume today (we’ll see how she closes). The 2 hour chart for it looks good too. Would not want to see it drop below 1.33 though, so your stop is close.

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AXU&p=120&b=5&g=0&id=p20250809984&a=537505054&listNum=1

      (I am long silver miners.)

      1. Bluebellkid

        Bullish on the 2 hour chart – really!! Try concentrating on the weekly chart as that is the one that tells what is really going on. GDXJ has been stuck in a range of 29-35 for about 3 months now and volume has been trending down. The only silver lining is that when volume dries up that indicates you have run out of sellers and that can set the stage for a move up.

      1. Nada

        So all the moves between 1:30pm eastern and 8:20am eastern are noise since comex is closed? From experience, gold’s topping process is one of the biggest pains in the ass to watch. I am not sure where that top is at the moment.

      1. Nada

        The color of a candlestick has no bearing in shooting star formation. I am not saying this is the top in gold, I am just saying we had some selling into close.

        “Not only that, GLD looks like it closed with a hollow red candle, which IMO is typically bullish (suggests buying/covering into weakness).” Not sure what you are talking about as there was selling not buying or short covering. BTW, this is the last place shorts would cover.

        1. Spanky

          A hollow red candle is the opposite of a solid black candle.

          The open was lower than yesterdays close and the closing price was higher than the open, which suggests net buying from the opening price.

          1. Nada

            Not debating the meaning of a hallow or solid candle. I am saying that a reversal candle such as a shooting star does not matter if its hallow or solid.

  31. bluelagoon

    Thanks Ped for your response on oil. I agree that the daily chart does look good and easy to read.

    The only caveat is that these patterns don’t last and I feel the tide is changing because:
    1) The charts look as though crude has had its ICL – maybe even YCL as Gary believes
    2) DWT (a ticker I watch) has broken below its lower trendline and other indicators look as though it its 50DMA may be the furthest it will go

    That being said – crude may hit $39 but it may be late this year during its weaker seasonal period.

    I will be watching the crude report tomorrow to see which way price goes and follow that.

    1. Pedestrian

      If crude does take a header as I am suggesting then its likely gold won’t be far behind since the two seem to trade together lately. And frankly, gold does look like a good candidate for a fall in the near future. So both oil and gold down for another cycle and then we will see where we stand for a seasonal bounce after that’s all wrapped up.

  32. dboz

    I can’t even remember when we had a rally in miners that was pedal to the metal. Slow grind may be better. Lull everyone to sleep then face ripping blast off? Seems set up to do it. Maybe a good catalyst. C’mon SM, have a shocking one day plunge.

    I am still alive in TVIX. I have about 1-2 more days left if we don’t get downside in the SM by then, I will have to count myself in the casualties. One day plunge times two here.

    Oil looks like it was a healthy pullback is all. Still missed a great day trade.

    Gold and silver appear worthless. Maybe a little nudge from a good size market pullback could push up up and over? Holding JNUG and USLV.

    I am waist deep in a horrible UGAZ trade so only limited powder to add if metals take off. Not holding my breath on that one. Probably better to not be metal heavy anyway. Healthier allocation now. Not less risky, just in different sectors. NG could launch or crash. Should have sold last Thursday on the big news pop. May be stuck until Christmas, if then? Lots of good trades wiped with one bad one. Not ready to capitulate yet, but one more crash may get me there.

    1. Spanky

      Exactly my sentiments. But such rallies are rare in the miners. Again, the 2010 epic rally comes to mind as one such instance. That rally occurred after a very long and tight consolidation in the miners. typically you see them break down after such consolidations, but back then they ramped up pretty slowly and ultimately built up into a huge explosion over the course of 4-5 months.

  33. Spanky

    There seems to be quite the discrepancy between spot gold price as reflected on kitco.com vs the $gold price on the daily chart, even taking into account the fact that the NY pit closes around 1:30 est.

    1. Nada

      What do you mean? $GOLD is a continuous futures contract and $XAUUSD as stated is spot gold. There should be a difference in their prices and especially so when contracts first change. Just because comex closes, does not mean the price of gold stops trading and or is irrelevant. Gold futures and spot gold are traded 23 hours a day .

    1. Nada

      Interesting.. There is also some big SOS for SPY. The GLD BOW is odd to me at this level. WSJ is certainly no holy grail, but its useful. When I see something like the above, it always make me think someone knows something is about to happen.

  34. mustang sally

    Afternoon All.

    Well another disappointing day for gold buggers, if hui can;t get above 200 were going down. If 200 can’t be broken I have a marker on hgd around 21.00.

    Rollin the dice

    Mustang Sally

  35. butch

    No bearish technical signals in gold, I remain long Gold. However looking at USD COT I must practice Franklin Roosevelt quote” the only thing to fear is fear itself”

  36. RetireYoung

    Gold and miners failed today 1275ish and 34ish (GDXJ). A move down in gold towards 1240s is possible. But tomorrow is another day. I have a small JDST position but might sell if gold moves decisively higher through the 1275ish zone. Volume is still light and GDXJ move not that impressive but the stair steps higher and bull chatter might convince me. πŸ˜‰

  37. dboz

    Metals dropping again. Impossible to buy and hold. Buy any surge or upside movements and within a few weeks you will be forced to decide to sell or go into the red in hopes THIS time will not be the cascade down draft. If this tanks here it’s my last try. I will put money back in during a sustained breakout move. No more hoping that THIS time will be that move.

      1. HomerJ

        I don’t post my trades, that’s why. Judging by your posts, I doubt you’re making more than chump change, more likely you’re in the red.
        Quit trading by guessing, the majority of your reasoning has nothing to do with reality.

  38. Don

    Gary, a pro such as yourself should know that linear scales over long periods produce distorted graphs that are useless for trend lines. A 1% percentage move when the Nasdaq was 1000 does not produce the same number of points as a 1% move when the Nasdaq is at 6000. Serious technicians always logarithmic scales.
    There has been no break above the channel for either the Dow or the Nasdaq. It’s not even close as can be seen on the following log charts:
    https://invst.ly/4olo1

    https://invst.ly/4olof

  39. mustang sally

    Evening all, Just my gut feel, but something is going to happen that is going to send the usd a flyin. and a gold dumping. No guarantee but!!

    MS

      1. mustang sally

        Dear Homer:

        Just learning from all the other letter writers on how to word your prediction so you win all the time, it goes up I win and it goes down did not guarantee. Still got my jdst so I say must be 1oo%

  40. Don

    A US attack on North Korea is imminent. Gold could go either way and reverse as could the stock market. There is just no way to know what the machines are going to do although bad news has been a trigger for them to buy. I really do hate the current trading environment where nothing seems to deter the algos from pushing the markets higher.

      1. Don

        You are making the assumption that those who are running the United States are rational and caring people. They are not. Military men are now running the show and is their very nature to view the deaths of human beings as collateral damage in war time. Did you not hear what Admiral Scott Swift said just recently concerning about what he would do if Trump ordered him to nuke China? (http://www.newsweek.com/us-navy-president-donald-trump-china-nuclear-weapon-642830) What person in their right mind says that kind of shit in public? Can you imagine how the Chinese leadership must feel about the stability of the US?

        You are dreaming if you think they are going waste the opportunity to kick some Korean ass. If NKorea does manage to lob a few nukes into SKorea or Japan, it will be tough shit as far as the US military is concerned. That would be their perfect excuse to go nuclear on NKorea.

        It will be a miracle if Trump does not order the strike.

        1. RTTPD

          Don —

          I have a feeling you are correct. I think if China does not step up and lasso the Dear leader, the US will strike NK with a MASSIVE EMP attack that will drive them much further back into the stoneage than they are right now.

          They’ll lose every bit of electronic capability for command and control, and they wont be able to get their birds up day or night.

          They may get off a few series of convential artillary – but they’re whole command structure will be isolated and driven underground.

          The US has been throughly embarrased in Syria and I wouldn’t underestimate their determination/resolve to pull something exotic from out of their hat.

      2. kinik007

        Gentlemen, I would like to comment if I may. I’ve volunteered at an NGO helping NKorean refugees, one of my very good friends has an MA in Political Science from Georgetown and studied under Victor Cha, the Prof whom US government often consults with. We talk often and I follow this very very closely.

        To say an attack on NK is imminent is a bit of stretch. At the earliest, we are looking at next year when the US feels that they have a weapon that will actually work and hit anywhere in the US, which includes their base in Guam. It is just before this point the US will need to strike.

        To say that they will never strike because there is 10 million in Seoul is also not entirely correct either in my humble opinion. The Clinton administration was on the verge of sending cruise missiles already. The path, I’m afraid is set. Kim Jong-Un has no choice from a logistical point of view other than to pursue the weapon for both tactical and political reasons, and the US will not allow him to finish. The 500,000 to 2,000,000 people that might die in the conflict will not be the primary concern.

  41. zkotpen

    Pedestrian,

    Time to fade Don as well. I loved it when you 2 used to get into it — used to crack me up.

    I think Don left his brain in his tuque. Then, BidGaddy mistakenly sat on it when he went out to his outhouse in the middle of the night to “make some money”…

  42. Gary Post author

    Folks, pay attention to what’s going on.

    Gold is holding above the 200 DMA and the average is flattening and turning up.

    Gold is holding above the 200 and 100 week moving average. The 100 has turned up (usually a sign a bull market has begun). The 200 is flattening. And the 100 is going to cross above the 200.

    The same applies to GDX.

    Like I’ve been saying for almost 2 years now, gold has begun a new bull market. I spotted the baby bull within weeks of it starting. Most take many months or years to spot a new bull.

    The problem most of you have is you expect gold to rocket to the moon and it just isn’t going to happen. We already had the baby bull. That phase is over. Now we are stuck in a basing phase where price just gets stuck chopping back and forth for months. It wears everyone out and convinces the bears that price is going back down.

    At some point though price exits the basing phase and the next leg up begins. Just don’t expect the next leg to be a rocket shot. It probably won’t be. At best gold may make it to $1400, and of course all the traders buying the breakout will then get sucked back down into another ICL correction and the bears will again start calling for a bear market.

    Just accept that during the bubble phase in the stock market other sectors are going to be slow movers as stocks suck up all the easy money.

    1. Pedestrian

      Golden crosses and Death crosses are unreliable indicators at best so betting accordingly when one appears is about as helpful as using casino odds and coin flips. Gary, you cannot be seriously using MA crosses as your primary reason to convince traders this is really a new bull market.

      You might just as well throw chicken bones against the wall.

      1. Pedestrian

        Take a look at a few ETF’s instead.

        Bear trades DSLV and DGLD both look good to go have reached nice turning points. A little consolidation is expected first but we should see outright trending reversals within days that will reward buyers who are entering now.

        While I am not predicting a dollar bounce just yet, its worth noting that we have been red 4 weeks in a row already so a a counter-trend move is becoming increasingly likely on a cyclical basis. Should the dollar begin to rise during this precious metals reversal it will feel like a body slam for the gold bulls in the room who will keep holding at their own peril.

        Looks to me like the bears are soon to be back in charge.

          1. Gary Post author

            The metals are due for a half cycle low.

            Watch the short term sentiment levels and the 3 day RSI for the next buying opportunity.

          2. Gary Post author

            I’ve been almost perfect on this market since last December. No nothing has changed. Gold is in a new bull market.

            It gave us the failed daily cycle that I said had to happen. It did it despite the ravings of the perma bulls.

            It gave us a three wave correction, just like I said had to happen. Also despite the rants of the perma bulls.

            I said there was no way gold would go below the December low as the cycle was right translated. I was expecting silver and miners to break the December lows though. Silver did it, but miners not quite.

            Now all the signs are there that the ICL has formed. So gold won’t be going back below the July low no matter how loudly the perma bears scream.

            We are in the advancing phase of a new intermediate cycle. In the advancing phase you buy dips.

            And I’m not completely convinced gold will give us a recognizable half cycle low. It may just continue to flag and then deliver another leg up.

  43. mustang sally

    Howdy Everyone: Well there has been some good reading , I remember one of old friends laugh at a guy named Sinclair and every time he would say” this is it”, it would go in the opposite direction, I am surprised no one has shot the con yet. Anyways I wanted to find a marker that was closer that I could short gold earlier instead of a break of 1243 and, similiar to my short on tsla . so the short marker is around 1253, that is if gold is held below 1278 or so.

    Shortin Sally

  44. Pedestrian

    It’s very possible we see gold trading below 1200 dollars by late August. That might just be the set-up we need before gold gets bullish again on a seasonal basis and ready for traders who come back in September. It’s too early to tell yet but this is not a great time to be getting long miners in my opinion.

    Where is Robert btw? Paging Robert! Check out this daily GDX chart and note the resistance line. I think we are going to see GDX break down below its support level this go-round. The technical picture is NOT bullish that’s for sure. No point overthinking this in any case. We are set up for declines.
    http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=gdx

    1. MegaMind

      Ped, that trend line is a good one to bust though if I was an algo, because then it would cause all shorts to liquidate and all on the sidelines to get long… so that is what I see with this setup…because euro is still very strong…

      1. mustang sally

        Morning Mega:
        That is the wonderment of charting, you can read what you want, to many people get caught up in one line, let me tell you Mabel Marker could show you hundred lines above and below that line from long term lines, its finding the relevent lines not the popular lines.

        MS

      2. Pedestrian

        Yup, I will be a buyer again by the end of August if all goes according to expectations. I look forward to this next decline. Especially if it can turn the mood on miners black and ugly. The darker the better.

        1. dboz

          LOL, daily gold and silver sentiment are only 40ish now. How dark do you want it? Never even broke over 50% daily bulls on this rise. Does appear a large dump in silver is coming. Same crap, bought, was up, watched it come back down, and now a gap down below my entry point has me under water. I have no idea why my mind keeps telling my fingers to push the buy button on any of this. I have very little room in JNUG and I would expect a rapid sell off there also giving back the 1.70 I had gained.

          1. Pedestrian

            Boss, that kind of explains why I just take the summer off where metals and miners are concerned. Its usually just a daily grind waiting for you to make a mistake. Much easier to go with the flow when a trending move finally arrives.

          2. Gary Post author

            Short term sentiment on GLD is about neutral at 65% bulls. At tops it’s often above 80% and at bottoms below 20%.

            There will often be a momentum divergence on the TSI at cycle tops. We don’t have one yet.

            Maybe gold dips into a HCL, but I think it’s probably building a flag before another pop higher.

    2. Pedestrian

      And just to prove I am not all bearish;

      There is THIS monthly chart of GDX that I have been keeping an eye on for ages. GDX is displaying a massive inverse head and shoulders pattern that suggests we are close to its final bottom now. If price drops back to 20 dollars or a little lower it won’t have any material impact on the pattern.

      In other words, I am going to be treating this coming pullback (which is starting now) as a serious buying opportunity for mining stock. This kind of decline that is coming is likely an excellent set up to get long miners for the next couple years so it should not be missed.

      Bear today, bull tomorrow!!

      Not the best chart of GDX (but you get the point). This is a Big inverse H&S that should be respected.
      http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GDX&ty=c&ta=0&p=m

    1. mustang sally

      Again another interpretation, one should be in the mindset that marker could be support, or it may not be.
      Let the action around the marker tell you, and remember games are played around markers look at dust 29.50.

      MS

      1. Bluebellkid

        I have often wondered why TA works and the only thing I can come up with is it works because enough investors are using that particular moving average, BB, Fib retracement level etc. It is self fulfilling prophesy in my opinion, so I wouldn’t put too much stock in hundreds of lines on a chart if only a handful of folks know about it. You have to have enough investors reacting to certain numbers for there support/resistance.

  45. mustang sally

    Some more fun with charts, if one looks at the chart of tsla, is tsla the canary showing the path down for all markets, gold and sliver look the same, and if you are into timing how does 93.60 marker inusd match with gold at 1260, could be the real deal hmmm

    MS

    1. Nada

      buying on weakness. The WSJ puts out a report thats updated every 15mins. If a stock closes red and there was large buying on weakness, its printed. It also shows selling on strength. Yesterday there was a large selling on strength for SPY and significant buying on weakness in GLD ETF.

      We can all clearly see gold has a BULLISH bias, and shorting is very difficult. However, going long miners has been whipsaw so far. This morning we are seeing the GLD GDXJ buying paying off. The report is a solid indicator.

      http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfgppl-moneyflow.html

      1. mustang sally

        Thanks for the explain Nada, I guess we will know shortly if it was smart or dumb money or just a fake, any date which is available to the public is suspect.

        MS

        1. Nada

          Yes, its only a tool. However, its worth adding to your repertoire in my opinion – at least take a look at 5pm eastern to see the final update. For now, gold is showing us its BTFD. NFP has the potential to ignite or extinguish.

  46. Pedestrian

    One thing that will be different in 2018 is that investors will start digging a little deeper looking for value. As most stocks now appear overpriced there are not many areas left to deploy capital that offer rational upside potential. And so mining stock should finally catch a bid. All gold and silver need do is show a little life and mine equities will take off. This sector is long overdue for some attention.

    1. JJHarmen

      PED

      “Bear today, bull tomorrow!!” GDX is up right now so you were right? If gold moves down to 1200 you were right? Are you trying to cover all the possibilities so you can claim to have been right no matter which way the miners go?

      1. Pedestrian

        Have you been drinking? Maybe go back and read my posts again. I am calling for an imminent decline in both gold and silver (and the miners) which I believe will potentially set the stage for long entries after summer has ended. I also believe this current run in gold has almost ended so would not get long from here but rather prepare for a reversal back down.

        GDX is setting up for a decline, not the 6 cent rise that you just pointed out. Come the fall we might be in a good place to buy it back. I don’t know for sure of course but that’s how it looks to me right now if that big inverse head and shoulders on GDX holds.

  47. Gary Post author

    I’m trying to decide if the HCL is over in stocks and the S&P will now make a run for 2500 before the cycle tops.

    I am confident that no matter what happens the market will be back at or very near the all time highs for the Jackson Hole symposium.

  48. MegaMind

    Like I said, look for one more spike in gold as dollar spikes into the solid support zone one last time, before giving a dead cat bounce…. GDX and Gold should break the defined trendlines when dollar dives…

    what could be the driver for dollar to drop in the next few days?

  49. dboz

    I am in disbelief that I still hold TVIX for almost 10 days now. Just keeps going up enough to keep me green and still waiting for an event of some type. By event, I mean a 1-3% down day. May not happen. Still expect some type of pullback on this SM to give some rest to the bulls. Exhaustion has to be setting in, no?!

  50. Bigdaddy

    Good morning to all (except turd Zkotpen, turd Homerj, turd Pedestrian). I was up late last night so my eyes are a bit fuzzy. Is that Netflix and Facebook taking a beating this morning? Is that the SQQQ and SOXS that is up?

  51. allthatglitters

    I’m delighted to let the PM Bulls congratulate themselves all day long about how correct they are, as long as my JDST keeps going up. Which for some strange reason it is.

      1. roadrunner

        Spanky, Mr. glitter has to spew his verbal diarrhea as his JDST is down $20 in less than 30 days. as well i doubt the clown would be able to find 5 posts where someone was calling for a moonshot in gold….except himself.

  52. Spanky

    Everything in the very short run points to a top in the metals and miners, including the GDXJ:GLD ratio, technicals, sentiment etc etc:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ%3AGLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p24979289279&a=537641676&listNum=1

    I’ll also note that some of my silver miners are acting weak today, having failed (like GDXJ) to penetrate their 100 DMAs.

    It could be that we get a large breakdown here, but it will be absolutely ironic if we get a 1-2 day explosion upwards before we get a correction. All it takes is 1 day to lock people out, especially people who think they are smarter than the market trying to time perfect entries and exits.

  53. Spanky

    NEM is acting like an anchor on GDX atm, since it was so overbought last week. NEM is consolidating sideways so far, which is good, but it won’t act as a catalyst for at least a few days IMO.

  54. Goild

    Good nite here.

    From a day trading perspective JNUG feels quite reluctant to go down and its volatility is decreasing on the down side. It seems that there is a bulls/bears fight to decide the next leg. Though OIL might be dictating the fate.

    1 1/2 hour of work and $512 for breakfast. I am going to sleep.
    Have a good trading session.

    1. Don

      Dboz: The S&P is way over bought on the daily, weekly and most importantly, the monthly charts. The market should correct but in this climate of central bank interference and computer driven trading, one cannot say with confidence that a correction will actually occur or that it will be a minor or major correction. Good luck with TVIX. It could pay off big if you are right.

  55. jake

    Nobody wanted to buy gold on the 7th, now that its late in the cycle everyone is looking for a break out buy.
    More retests of 1280 resistance and a break before the turn at the end of the week or Monday to get everyone on the wrong side.

    1. Spanky

      Or, another way of thinking about it is, wanna be longs are too chicken to take a position now, and once we get a $20-30 spike higher, they will buy into the spike. Immediately thereafter the gold daily cycle will top and all the wanna be longs will be stuck holding the bag for a few weeks, if not longer.

  56. Don

    Gold and silver spot cash are up and the futures are down. Platinum is up nicely today and has been going up since I pointed out on July 26 that the chart looked positive. This is what Pedestrian had to say at the time:

    Pedestrian
    July 26, 2017 at 9:44 am
    How about platinum on an hourly chart? Is that an β€œuptrend”?

    Looks like a dome to me and its rolling over.
    http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=PL&p=h1

    ———————————————————————————–

    Oh wait, maybe you meant on the weekly chart.

    Sorry, not here either. Fact is platinum is in decline on every major chart. You need less booze.

  57. MagnuM

    Thanks for your opinion Pedestrian! I may not always agree with your assessments, but this time I do. At least you explain your reasonings well (sometimes too well!)

    I plan to go heavy on HGD.TO at the end of day Thursday in preparation for a miners smackdown on Friday morning. It’s just from watching the price action on jobs days for too many months/years to expect any different (although there have been surprises before). It seems like it’s been more or less a tie between bulls & bears all summer, but perhaps the jobs report will break the tie.

    I actually hope I am wrong on my prediction, as it would represent a character change for this market instead of same old, same old. After this predicted one more leg down to make the final few frustrated metals/miners bull give up the market to never trade it again, I’ll make my “set it and forget it” miner positions for the long term, right before the Jackson Hole symposium towards the end of this month.

    Bear “today”, bull “tomorrow”.
    (Quotes so people don’t take those as literal days :P)

    1. Bigdaddy

      Beware of that pedestrian guy!!! He always shows up and sounds like he knows what he is talking about and will lead you down the garden path and then disappears when he is wrong and then comes back months later and does the same thing again. Trust me. I lost lots of money following that turd.

      1. MagnuM

        I always use Pedestrian’s analysis to validate my pre-existing bias, not to form a bias. If we take opposite sides of a trade, at least one of us will come out happy πŸ™‚

    2. Pedestrian

      Thanks Magnum. The technicals look pretty good for a decline to get underway. I am referring to the tried and true tools like RSI, CCI, Stochastics and that sort of thing. Not sure how anyone can be bullish gold at the moment since we are right on the tipping point. The gold chart itself begs for a resolution. Visually it could not be easier to read but the bugs are blind to it as usual.

  58. Spanky

    Unfortunately, and not surprisingly, it is unlikely that GDXJ is going to make a serious move up or down until Friday’s unemployment number. Fun stuff.

  59. Bigdaddy

    I just bought 1000 of HGU.TO at 13.51. I am now up on everything I have bought since my rejuvenation. I am on a roll so feel free to tag along guys. (except HomerJ) Stay tuned.

  60. Bigdaddy

    Well, not up on everything. My average short price on FB is 167.20 so it has to drop a little more. It’s a shit stock and it’s going to sink along with the rest of the market. trust me.

  61. Bigdaddy

    FFSake, why doesn’t the SM drop and get on with the show? This is like watching paint dry. I am taking wifey out to lunch so I will see you guys later. I think i may be handing out some dunce hats later so stay tuned.

  62. Lenapowich

    I have been watching this board since I bought GDX a while back and I have to make a comment. Of all the contributors, the one that makes the most sense is DON (CHRISTIAN is also very sensible). He doesn’t make a lot of predictions but is consistent and points out interesting market developments. He made a comment about a probable US attack on NKorea and I personally think he is right although most of my co-workers here at my office don’t think it will happen.
    I am thinking that gold and the miners would react positively if that were to happen so I am going to buy more GDX. Wish me luck.

    1. Nada

      GL on your trade. I have made no calls that any trade is going to do this or that with 100% certainty. However, I will make one in regards to war on the Korean Peninsula. NO WAY IN HELL. I have stated this about 10 times in the last month on this blog. SK would be decimated and the costs of life would be in the hundreds of thousands if not millions.

      Its quite different to take down a country like Iraq who could only lob a few scud missiles at Israel on its best day, vs starting a war with a country that can do massive damage to its Southern neighbor and Japan. Lets not forget, their last test showed they could potentially hit targets on US mainland. You folks might as well be talking about a war with Russia or China, because if war broke out with NK its game over for the world.

      1. Don

        Nada, do you believe that the American people are being led by sane and rational people? The vast majority of Americans want very badly to believe that their country is still a beacon of freedom and justice despite all the evidence that is no longer true.

        The so called Deep State, that includes the military and armaments industry, are itching for a war and are ultimately setting the stage for a major conflict not just with NK, but with Russia and perhaps China also. The rest of the world will pay for American stupidity and arrogance.

        Americans that travel frequently to other countries find out pretty quick how the rest of the world feels about the US and it isn’t a positive experience.

        1. Nada

          In regards to American leaders, it doesn’t matter. I am no trying to say the US is any beacon on light and the last thing I care about is what someone from another nation thinks about the US.

          You are talking end of days nonsense. You might as well start talking about the second coming.

          1. Pedestrian

            He was doing the same thing months back since he believes it will make gold go up. Never ends with that guy always talking up nuclear war just so he can make an easy buck. Best to ignore him. The guy is a wingnut so desperate for a win he needs Uncle Sam to wipe out a few million people.

  63. primetime

    RE: N KOREA

    One must remember no nation on this earth in the last 70 years has felt the full wrath, power of the US MILITARY. They may have felt conflicts and wars fought on a political stage, but not anywhere near full capacity. The US Military is the only force keeping world order in recent history and as an American I am blessed and proud of them. When and if needed under DJT, you will see why AMERICA is the only true superpower in the world. Sleep well tonight.

  64. JJHarmen

    Prime
    We have an ugly history of bombing countries that have never fired a shot a the US. Since the second WW, we have been involved in wars that were protecting American corporate interests and not protecting the citizens of other countries against invaders. Open your eyes man to the truth and quit hiding behind the flag.

  65. primetime

    My wish is for the US to bring all troops and money home and only worry about America and let all the clueless people overseas learn the hard way. Put the welcome mat out for ISIS and such. Then they will come crying and crawling back saying ” Please, please help us bro”

  66. Ed

    Not good looking at GDX.
    Dollar index only work when it hurts miners.
    I think I should get out come back later.
    Dollar tanked so much but there is nothing to show for it in miners.
    GL with your trading.

    1. Pedestrian

      Good possibility that gold and silver both peaked yesterday and are only consolidating their tops now. GDX is only bumping up against strong resistance right now and does not look like a great bet to me so I will be getting short by tomorrow if the charts confirm (fingers crossed). Will be looking for a trending move down in metals / miners of a few weeks and a respective healthy rise in my usual bear trades DSLV, DGLD, JDST and DUST. With luck we get a good strong trending move in the direction of choice and scare the shit out of the bulls one more time. Lord, I love this market!!! LOL!!

  67. AT

    added more JNUG

    Aug 2 buy 50% JNUG 18.20
    Jul 31 buy 50% JNUG 18.59
    Jul 28 sold 100% JNUG 18.69
    Jul 27 buy 50% JNUG 17.61
    Jul 27 buy 50% JNUG 17.98
    Jul 24 sold 100% DUST 30.95
    Jul 18 buy 50% DUST 30.19
    Jul 17 buy 50% DUST 30.80
    Jul 14 sold 50% JNUG 16.92
    Jul 13 buy 50% JNUG 16.08
    Jul 11 sold 100% JNUG 16.56
    Jul 7 buy 50% JNUG 15.03
    Jul 6 buy 50% JNUG 16.46
    Jun 30 sell 50% DUST 31.48
    Jun 27 buy 50% DUST 30.05

  68. Ed

    If you look at the tight range GDX has been trading last four months, I think PPT is readying for a final fleecing before it loses control over gold price.
    May be then these bank cartels will finally join long side of gold for a long ride to haven.

  69. Herman

    Gold seems to be getting into trouble here. Despite the relentless rise of EUR/USD, gold follows reluctantly.

    I think the original scenario is still in play, ICL dead ahead.

  70. Bigdaddy

    I go for lunch thinking my positions are just going to get better as the day progresses and then everything goes to shit while I am gone. Can’t a guy even go for a bite to eat? The sell off got cut short, again. The S&P is almost back to even! i want to swear but the wife is in the other room so i have to be cool. Maybe the market will fall on it’s face in the last hour but I ain’t liking the looks of it.

  71. Bluebellkid

    GDX 50 day average volume 45.8 mm – with about an hour left in the trading day GDX has traded a whopping 14 mm and is up another whopping penny.

  72. MagnuM

    I think it’s time to pick sides and break up into camps! When it comes to metals/miners sentiment, which sports team will you choose?

    *Bulls*
    Bigdaddy
    Lenapowich
    Don

    *Bears*
    mustang sally
    Pedestrian
    MagnuM

    1. mustang sally

      Hello Mag. What a great idea , we should get Gary to put it as a sidebar, and when we switch we can move our name over. How about that Gary.

      MS

  73. Spanky

    Yep, things not looking so hot for the metals right now. One of my miners, EXK, looks sick as hell and is breaking down badly on the daily chart after a long sideways consolidation. It is also breaking down vs SLV, again, after a long sideways consolidation.

    I think the breakdown will be confirmed by GDXJ very soon.

  74. mustang sally

    Hey lets go one step further, everyone here browses all the gold porn sites and letterwriters , lets get all their positions and put them on the chart, maybe that might be better than mabel marker.

    MS

  75. dboz

    Sat down from work and low and behold, stopped out of all metals/miner position. POS sector, sick of it. Did get out with gains but gave back decent money hoping for breakout. Not going in the red, so be it. TVIX is still alive but on life support. Going on vacation, minimal worries. Check it out when I come back, will probably miss the breakout………………………..NOT! LOL

  76. Pedestrian

    Updated…..So is this about right?

    *Bulls*
    Bigdaddy
    Lenapowich
    Don
    Robert
    Ed
    DBoz
    Gary
    Spanky

    *Bears*
    Mustang Sally
    Pedestrian
    MagnuM
    Nada
    Christian
    KHT
    Herman

    1. mustang sally

      Hey, get all the letter pushers and highlite their name. so far bullis maud, thompson moriarty. spock, surfer, bears, jordon. kearns ) fence sitter)

      MS

    2. dboz

      You can move me to BEAR, Ped, I am out, probably until the end of AUGUST now. Regroup then. Gold is going down in the next few days. Miners will be head for the hills time. Holding either right now is just on hope and wishful thinking. No reason to think a break out is coming. No volume, no breakout. If things were going to BREAKOUT we should see volume start to accelerate. Just not happening right now. Even if it does, I really don’t care any longer. Beat up and beat down. Too much work for too little gain. Should be setting up a big upside market move to ATH now in the next 1-2 weeks again. That is were you should be. I am just refusing even if I miss out on a NASDAQ 100000000.

    3. Spanky

      Put me in undecided. Today just is not shaping up how I thought it would. I also thought it was important for GDXJ to break above its 100 dma after tagging it 6 days in a row now. It has failed, and that is not a good sign.

      If it breaks below 32.77 I will flip bearish.

      I’ll admit though, the bull case in the short term is wafer, wafer thin.

  77. Spanky

    Most worrisome now is that GDXJ’s daily stochastics are not embedded overbought and are pointing down.
    While they could turn back up before reaching 50 or even oversold levels, I give that about a 1% chance at this point. More likely price is headed down until those stochastics reach oversold.

    1. Pedestrian

      You too?

      Well then so far the crowd here is equally divided in the bull and bear camps with Spanky holding the lone position as “undecided”. Who would have guessed? That was a great idea for a quick survey, MagnuM because this is just the kind of division we might expect to make a market. It will be interesting to see how it all changes once gold starts falling!

      (Oops, let my bias slip in).

      1. MagnuM

        I find it interesting that it is this split on a website that has physical gold/silver as its background, lol. The split seems to represent the current sentiments in the metals/miners market, which is a tug-of-war seemingly range-bound market going nowhere.

  78. Ed

    We still have Budget, Debt Ceiling to deal with in next couple month.
    Trump just signed Russia sanction bill that he didn’t want to sign.
    Mueller just hired another guy in his team. It doesn’t seems like there is anything going forward make the dollar strong.
    May be a war but that too not so sure.
    I am not sure how Trump can handle North Korea where Trump just made one additional enemy, Russia.
    Consider Russia and China share a border with North Korea. They do not want anyone close to US near their border.
    Trump just announced trade war with China and Russia in last 2 days.
    I don’t know how that would strengthen Dollar.
    Fed leads, ECB and BOJ follows. Punch bowls are slowly taken away from EU and Japan too.
    All these considered, Dollar will get pummeled starting next two months.
    Prepare, put yourself in front of crowd.

  79. Gary Post author

    Range bound markets are hard to make money in, either bull or bear. The trend will be gradually up but I doubt many of you will make any money as you will just get whipsawed out over and over. Then two or three months from now you will look at the chart and wonder why you didn’t just buy and then sit tight.

    1. dboz

      I made lunch money after giving back vacation money today. I want retirement money. We aren’t getting there in 2 or 3 months. Metals nor miners have had a 2-3 month stretch of positive gains since last year. 7-8 weeks is the best we have. Miners lag metals anyway right now so even with a big move up in metals does not mean miners are going along. I am waiting for Aug/Sept to load the boat with GBTC. That will be the bull ride rocket ship that will make you some real money. Slow grind up in metals or miners is just too inconsistent to expect any sort of real money. Unfortunately I stumbled into the sector in early 2015 thinking it was really easy to make money and got sucked in and now they have sucked me dry. GDX is exactly 3 cents higher now than in January 13th…..22.74 close on that day. Thats a 3 cent gain on a buy and hold on high risk low reward trade that has lasted 7 months. So yeah, most won’t make any money.

    1. Gary Post author

      My God I’ve been telling you that for at least a couple of years.

      It’s why there is free money in the stock market. You have the protection of the Fed’s printing press and PPT intervention.

  80. Christian

    Folks, I am neither a bear or a bull at this juncture. I am on the sidelines and frankly I’d like to see how Gold reacts when the dollar finally bounces out of its YCL.

    I agree with Gary that the current cycle is behaving like the first daily cycle out of an ICL but the Miners lackluster move and the buck are holding me back a little.

    Sometimes the best thing to do is to sit and watch instead of playing Cowboys and Indians with the market.

    1. Nada

      Question. If this is the move out of the ICL, must it take out the high of the last daily cycle to confirm ICL?

      Let me ask the question in another way – can we have a half cycle low in gold and then move higher than last cycle to confirm or must the move out of the ICL FIRST break the high before a HCL?

  81. Ed

    Yep. There is no sense in fighting FED.
    Fed, PPT, ESF, they are all in one and same, controls the market.
    No one know when they are going to lose control, but they will.
    Until then easy money, whether strong or weak dollar will levitate the stock market to higher, but when they lose the control, there is absolutely nothing will protect your portfolio except precious metals.

    1. Gary Post author

      They won’t lose control of the market. Get that idea out of your head. They have a counterfeiting machine for heavens sake. What they will do is go too far and allow the market to turn into the next bubble.

      When the bubble pops then they won’t be able to stop it, and any attempt to do so by printing more money will only cause higher and higher commodity inflation.

  82. Spanky

    Two of my mid tier miners AG and EXK were down big today. They are exhibiting zero strength in absolute terms and relative to silver. This isn’t a pretty picture IMO:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AG%3ASLV&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p53827484969&a=537699019&listNum=1

    Also, something I have pointed out before, the monthly stochastics on GDXJ never hit oversold, but they are darn close. I thought maybe just maybe they could turn back up by some miracle, but it honestly doesn’t look like its going to happen. We are going to have at least one more large red monthly candle in the miners and I think GDX will tag its lower monthly bollinger band before any sign of a bottom.

    For those that can see monthly charts:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p93373162786&a=537699962&listNum=1

  83. MagnuM

    I swear most of you late bears only showed up after seeing the back-half intraday action in the miners this afternoon! πŸ˜‰

    Makes me almost wish I put my position on today rather than tomorrow (currently no metal/miner positions held)

    1. Nada

      Yeah it seems sentiment changed quite a bit today. It was all bull in here. I can only remember a few and I have been in DUST since the 18th of July, so its been lonely. However, must say I would rather it stay all bull for my position sake.

    2. Pedestrian

      Actually I was also a little surprised by the number of declared bears, MagnuM. In times past the ratio has often felt like 99 raging bulls against me! Times have obviously changed and its clear now that a lot of the extreme gold people have finally gone by the wayside having given up in despair or gone broke trying. Reading the posts lately its notable how much more technical analysis is being applied (and how much less raw emotion and religious conviction there is). Like I said already, your idea for a survey was excellent. Gives us all an insight into how things have changed over the past year.

      About entering a trade today…I don’t think you missed much. I avoid getting in too early anymore since turning points so often want to consolidate for a few days first. And waiting a little gives you breathing room to watch the chart form up to be sure its meeting your expectations.

      If you trade the lesser charts you will know that there is often more than a few chances spread over days to enter near the very top. So you will be more confident you got it right by just letting the pattern work itself through. That sometimes includes a double top naturally which can take a week or more to complete before the real decline will get underway. It can all seem so painfully slow at times but when looking back later you realize it wasn’t really such a long process after all.

      Its just the emotion and adrenaline that make it feel like an eternity.

      1. KHT

        “Its just the emotion and adrenaline that make it feel like an eternity.”

        That statement right there! That is tucked safely away in my secret trading manifesto that I review from time to time.

        Excellent!!

  84. Bob

    At least five and up to ten to twelve days before this daily cycle tops in gold. Maybe there’s something interesting in the FOMC minutes that’ll act as the excuse for the dollar to reverse. Put me down as bull.

      1. Bob

        Just happens to be in ten trading days – Aug. 16 – doesn’t seem to be much else to get excited about in that timing range except for some news thing.

  85. Gary Post author

    Here’s what’s going to happen. The metals will churn sideways to down until everyone gives up or goes short. Then out of nowhere another big rally will occur. The bears will get caught and suffer big losses and the bulls will miss the rally.

    Then the sideways churn will start all over again. The bulls that bought the rally will get frustrated again and sell at the bottom. The bears will try again with their shorts. Then again once everyone is positioned wrong another big rally day will appear. Repeat, again and again.

    By the time 3 months have gone by the miners will have added some very nice gains but no one will have made any money off the move because they will have gotten whipsawed out over and over. This is the kind of market that isn’t going to make it easy. The gains will be there but it’s going to be exceptionally tough to make money off of the move. If I had to guess I’d say the vast majority of the move will occur over 5-10 trading days. If you are out of the market on any of those days you will drastically reduce your profits.

    1. Spanky

      GDXJ:GLD

      If this ratio gives out, look out below. There is still a bull case to be made I suppose, but the ratio closed today below the 20 dma and is just barely above the 50 dma. My guess is a break of this ratio will come on a huge gap, probably on the Friday jobs number. Does anyone actually see this ratio breaking upwards on Friday? With the dollar where it is?

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p40522008313&a=537701585&listNum=1

      1. Gary Post author

        Have you forgotten that last months very good jobs number sparked no rally at all in the dollar.

        I’ve said this before. There is no fundamental driver for currencies. They are like grains of sand on the beach. Infinite in number. It simply boils down to which central bank gets control of the Forex market and sentiment. Right now the Fed is in the process of creating the next bear market in the dollar. By the time it’s over they are going to wish they hadn’t been so foolish.

        1. Bob

          and yet, absolutely no change in the inflation rate in July sent everything all screwy. These potential triggers are simply excuses to make things move…or not.

        2. Spanky

          I am beginning to think all of the action since July 10 has been nothing but a bull trap for PMs.

          The Fed will be shrinking its balance sheet starting in September. That announcement should have put a bid in the dollar, but it didn’t. Again, to me this points to the action since July as a bull trap. If the employment report tomorrow is good, the yen and Euro WILL get hammered.

        3. Christian

          Currencies were never about the underlying ‘Fundamentals’ Gary! It’s all about Sentiment. I believe you said this once and you were right — stick with that πŸ™‚

    2. dboz

      Dead nuts on. The ONLY easy money in PM’s was early 2016. You will earn every penny you make trying to grind it out in the PM’s now. As you say, buy and come back in 2-3 years and see what you have. That is the best strategy. It has hit me so hard, I don’t even care if I miss it any more because it’s not really worth trying to catch. When was the last time JNUG or NUGT had a 30% day? Had them several times in 2016. JDST and DUST have had them for down days, but NO SIR on the upside.

  86. zkotpen

    Pedestrian,

    So great to see you back, adding some sensible posts to this blog & some humor as you lash out at the Donkey and the Big Dodo! To add to the image, Big Dodo in its swaddling cloths, silver spoons in hand, ridin’ a bronco in front of his computer with a sledge hammer for a mouse, while sittin’ in his shack on a zillion hectares of inherited property, and headin’ to the outhouse from time to time to “make some money”.

    Can you get your friend, Robert, to apologize at last?

    Maybe restore some peace to the territory πŸ˜‰

  87. zkotpen

    Robert,

    Come on bro’. You got angry at GDX. I gave you a little wake up call pointing this out — nothing offensive about what I wrote. Then Nada goes on a reactive rant — easy enough to page down thru, as he and I couldn’t care any less about each other.

    Then you pile on — utterly uncivil and unnecessary —

    — and I think you knew it at the time — especially in light of the fact that you pay particular attention to the 4 value posters on this board: Gary, Christian, Pedestrian, and me. (There are a few more value posters actually, but I don’t know if you pay particular attention to them).

    Don’t you think it’s time to own up to that uncivil pile-on post and apologize for it?

      1. Nada

        My god man, what did your mother do to you? She really built your ego up. Everything was civil, but as always, here you come to try and stir the pot. I must admit, you have a very creepy obsession with Robert. I think I am not the only one that has noticed, but its getting a bit weird now.

  88. Goild

    Good morning,

    Just waked up.
    After scanning through the thread today I should say congratulations to all.
    Good fun is going on and the “team” presence and participation is awesome.

  89. desertsun999

    Gary, I agree with your forecast on the pm’s. I do think we are in the midst of the 3yr cycle rally. Everything is in place now…….large spec’s short the dollar………some renewed optimism in the pm’s. This sector will be tough moving forward. I am not expecting any relationship between the dollar & pm’s that could be tradable. Are you thinking the same thing?

    1. Gary Post author

      I think something strange is going on with the currencies. The euro may mirror the slide in 2014 and rally in the same fashion with no counter trend moves for months.

      The crashing dollar is pushing everything higher. Stocks are getting the biggest push, but commodities are feeling it as well.

      We’re entering an inflationary period. First in the stock market as the bubble progresses. Then in commodities as the inflation moves into that sector.

    1. KHT

      My thoughts would be the “Crimex” is about to close and then all quotes will be through the Globex. Same things seems to happen before the Crimex opens in the AM.

  90. zkotpen

    Christian

    “Seriously Z β€” Let it go man!”

    I’ve noticed a drop off in your posts lately as well.

    At any rate, this has nothing to do with me. The “Z” and the “me” part are extra.

    It is clear that the blog has become decadent this summer. The contest helps, but the 2 arbitrary rules (no day trading, not stop-loss) make it ill-advised for me at this juncture — though that may change.

    Couldn’t care less about Donkey, Big Dodo, and Nadie. I agree with Ped’s characterization of Mustang Sal — I was baffled that people confused the two of them, as their language, style, and content are not even similar.

    Bottom line is, we had some pretty friggin’ good lead-ups to the FOMC and other market moving weeks. Stuff that adds some real, meaty value that people could benefit from & take or leave as they saw fit. Gary, Pedestrian, Christian, and zkotpen posted some pretty damned good forecasts on those Sunday, Mondays, and Tuesdays.

    The Donkey, the Dodo, and Nadie can’t figure out whether our posts were valuable or not.

    But anybody with market sense and who actually compares our forecasts with what actually happened knows that the 4 value posters on this board are clearly Gary, Christian, Pedestrian, and zkotpen — I’d probably add Bluebellkid to that list, but I don’t really watch the stock market, which is the subject of many of his posts. And palobar is excellent with his time frames, but he posts infrequently. Goild has some interesting insights on trading execution.

    And there is one post from August 2 by somebody who has only posted 1 other interesting item — that had nothing to do with markets.

    But yeah, it ain’t about “me”. It’s about value.

  91. Ed

    Isn’t it strange all currency trades moved same directions as to support gold price decline?
    So all gold price actions up to 1:15PM were driven by gold and currency markets, but 1:15PM and afterward were driven by only currency market, and the direction and magnitude were exact opposite.

  92. zkotpen

    All this talk about “the driver” — prove it! The big charting services are now featuring correlation coefficients. Prove a cause and effect relationship.

    Speed Racer is “the driver”!!

    (though he seems to have gotten stuck in a sea of molasses this summer).

    Ain’t no “driver”.

    The driver is traders who think the market will go up bid the price up;

    Traders who think the market will go down offer a market lower.

    That is “the driver”.

  93. Ed

    I think this is excellent example of how Central Bankers are supressing gold price.
    They couldn’t do it before 1:15PM because gold prices are settled by demand and supply, even with paper contracts. But they can monkey hammered gold prices after 1:15PM just by coordination of few people at the Central Banks.

    1. KHT

      zkotpen….really!!

      I`m thinking maybe this isn`t quite the atmosphere for you. Maybe something artsy or something. Edgar Allen Poe forum maybe?

      dunno just sayin……

      1. zkotpen

        KHT — just cus somethin’s medieval doesn’t make it wrong. Pre-modern (pre-scientific) thought has plenty of practical workarounds.

        But “the driver” thing — that only exists in somebody’s concept. No workaround for “the driver”, and it is potentially hazardous to your trading.

        Correction: It is inevitably hazardous to your trading. You can make money with cups & handles, with heads & shoulders, but “the driver” will destroy your account, sooner or later, just as day follows night, then night follows day.

        “The driver”
        -Buyers bidding up the price of a security;
        -Sellers offering a market lower.

        Much more than “just sayin'”.

        Say all you want — you’ll be welcome among the Donkey, the Big Dodo, and such.

        Or perhaps you will post something of value?

  94. desertsun999

    Gary,
    This great money experiment has done a LOT of damage to the middle class. Many excuses have been offered to explain the retail crash that we are currently seeing but I don’t believe it for a minute. The restaurant sector is still in decline and I think that will continue for the rest of this year. I think things are a lot worse than what is being said. A blind man can see it. The middle class has been taken to the woodshed & beaten to the point where there is no more blood to draw. The discretionary spending has evaporated and as the dollar gets weaker & things start to cost more it is only going to get worse. One of the reasons that I have been somewhat focused in on Chicago is that I think that it is a “leading indicator” of what is to come for the rest of the U.S. Civil unrest in this country is no laughing matter. That is one of the main reasons as to why our government has been so bold in its blatant manipulation of the stock market. The pension funds in this country are screwed right now. A handful still need a hail mary pass even now to continue to stay alive. The government is not bailing out the stock market. They are trying to prevent the greater depression from occurring. If the pensions start failing in this country you will see blood on the streets everywhere in this country, literally.

    1. Gary Post author

      You have to be kidding. The middle class is now back to work. Unemployment is down to levels last seen during the housing bubble.

      401K’s have been rescued and are at all time highs. Every restaurant I’ve been in lately is doing just fine. Even in the middle of WY in the tiny town of Ten Sleep the tourist trade is swamping the restaurant. They need help. Virtually every city I’ve been through this summer there are help wanted signs everywhere. That’s not the sign of an economy in trouble.

      And don’t forget if the economy goes into recession it will take gold and silver down with it. Deflation knows no favorites. Everything gets sucked down.

  95. Ex Nihilo

    Sorry – bad links in the first post so disregard the above:

    Watching the ten-year as a proxy for a trend change in the indices here:

    https://exnihilosplace.wordpress.com/2017/08/02/zn-notes-2/

    Same with 30-year futures which are bouncing nicely from this fresh slope on the weekly:

    https://exnihilosplace.wordpress.com/2017/08/02/zb-w-bonds-everything-lining-up-here/

    As it happens, the short Russell ETF RWM is bouncing nicely from support generated by the fork (out of the picture) and has risen into and rejected from resistance…

    https://exnihilosplace.wordpress.com/2017/08/02/rwm-w-playing-out-perfectly-here/

    how price reacts as this level will be critical to assess how much higher markets can run…

    Currently, things are all lined up well to expect a move south in indices and flight to safety in notes and bonds…

    New to the forum but looks like a great group of traders to share insights with…

  96. Spanky

    The ridiculous thing is that when the yen rallies, and USD goes down, US stocks go up and maybe sideways to up at worst.

    But when yen drops, and USD goes up, the US stock market goes up explosively.

    US stock market repeating what it did in February. Dow will hit 23000 by EOM.

  97. dboz

    The new trick is the after hours monkey hammering. Just like I have been saying. They bleed it right down to the bottom of the stop pile. Crash it over night. Then open gap down to miss the stops and trigger an instant shot of massive selling at rock bottom prices that just turn the day into a ski slope. Seen it several times now in several different commodities. Holding overnight is getting dangerous. Once again, funneling you into the market by default. One more crash out here on the miners should just about reset the bear market and have people move along.

  98. Gary Post author

    LMAO Gold is doing exactly what I said it was going to do. The bulls are going to get thrown off at the HCL. The bears will get caught short on the rally out of the HCL.

    I suspect maybe 3 or 4 people will make any money in the metals over the next 3-4 months. Everyone else will just whipsaw their portfolio to pieces.

    Let the games begin πŸ™‚

    BTW gold won’t be going back below the 200 DMA again.

      1. Gary Post author

        It’s going to take several years before you can “get rich” again. But gold is back in a bull market. No doubt about it. But it’s going to be a slow grind back up to 1900 as the easy money will continue to flow into the stock market until the bubble pops.

        Once gold breaks out above 1900 look out above. 10,000 or higher and it won’t take long to get there. The same as when gold finally broke out above $250. It rocket launched up to 850 very quickly.

        1. Spanky

          I bought the miners around GDX $16 (the pump and dump rally in fall of 2015 suckered me in).

          I’ve held bullion since 2001.

          I’m in the plus, but I never ever expected the miners to retrace this much and for this long. Honestly I don’t think the retracement is over. I hope you are right.

        2. dboz

          Lets just try to break 1300 first. That is like jumping over Mt. Everest right now. 1900 is so far removed at this point, not even computing in my brain. It takes a herculean effort to get to 1275 now with the double FAT FINGER drop downs.

          1. Spanky

            Lol. Have to agree wholeheartedly. Everyone has drawn a trendline from the 2011 top and knows gold has yet to break it. Admittedly, we are right on that trendline, yet again.

            gold needs to take out $1300 and hold it for more than a month. Once that trendline is broken, I would imagine it should grease the skids for a strongly trending bull market.

    1. Christian

      Why would the bulls get thrown off at the HCL??

      If you’re currently a Gold Bull and you believe in your prognosis, then you’re picking up more shares on every dip, including the HCL.. not selling you big dodo head πŸ™‚

      1. Gary Post author

        How many here do you seriously think will be buying?

        Trying to time perfect trades isn’t going to work.

        The only way to make any money on this run is to get long and hang on. Ride out the ups and downs and 3-4 months from now you will have made some nice gains.

    2. dboz

      Thrown off and miss what? A $30 gain?? Hope miners follow for a 3 buck increase? We just had gold sitting under 1300 two months ago and miners did zippo. Just watched. So suddenly everyone is going to get gold fever and jump into miners? Hell, we can’t even get the markets to drop a half percent more than 1 time a month. Why would anyone come over and place money in risky erratic mining stocks to catch a 30 dollar upswing in gold that will just reverse and fall right back down. We can’t even make it back up to 1280 now when the dollar just tanked 5 bucks.

      1. dboz

        All this when CRYPTOS move 30% in a week or less. Load the boat in the fall on GBTC. It will crash and then explode. THAT is where you can make some quick money.

  99. dboz

    I mean lets be real here. JNUG is 10 bucks below the price when it split. That is a MONSTER hair cut. You need JNUG to 56 right now just to bail people out from 2-3 months ago. 200%. You see a 200% move coming in JNUG? GOLD to 1400 maybe. It is possible but NOT if we are going to GRIND up to it. JNUG and time decay will just keep it dormant. No way of ever getting whole on those 3X ETF’s on a slow grind. JNUG can’t even eek back to $20. Could not hold 19 for more than a few hours. I mean we are talking $4 pre split levels here. Think how much money has been sucked up by being short the miners. Sickening.

    1. dboz

      Depends what you mean by investment. 30% gains in a month, seriously? Yeah, with perfect buy in timing. That is the only way to make money right now. Perfectly timed buys at exact bottoms.

  100. Ed

    Zerohege posted an article about a flash crash happening 19:06 ET,

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-02/its-7pm-new-york-do-you-know-where-your-precious-metals-manipulators-are

    This is same kind of thing I was writing about earlier. PM price suppression.
    It happened today with gold, it happened with silver yesterday. same time.

    I hate give an impression of wild eyed conspiracy theorist, but I think this one explains true nature of flash crash.
    You know futures markets have weird open and close time.
    I bet this is time London PM Price fixing cartels starts their work of fixing price price.

    I think they are rotating limited liquidity resources. They do a hit job on one metal at beginning and move on to next market.

    I think there is some strange stuff going on this week. And I bet it has to do with liquidity.
    That explains why there so much price levitation with so little volume.

  101. mustang sally

    Evening everyone, Well we are getting close to the 1260 marker, will it blow through overnight and will 93.60 usd be taken out, yes I believe so and all the bears will be out if full force. and you Mr.Pen, please do not read this as it is useless information,

    Shortin Sally

      1. Nada

        Gary you are out in full force tonight trying to convince everyone it seems. The statement about gold never below the 200ma is extreme. But what else is new – JNUG 500, Silver 1000, and DOW to 40k. I understand you are selling a service, but man talk about some out there numbers.

        1. Gary Post author

          I’ve studied bull markets. I know how they work.

          Let me ask you a couple of questions.

          Do you think anyone could have ever imagined $850 gold in 1972?

          In 1980 do you think anyone could have ever imagined 11,000 Dow?

          This one is a little closer to home.

          In 2010 how many people thought 7 years later the DOW would be 22,0000?

          If there is one thing I’m really good at it’s bull markets. I know from history that it’s a huge mistake to underestimate them. They always go much further than anyone can possibly predict.

          And this time it’s being driven by unimaginable trillions of currency units.

          There’s another one. In 2009 who could have possibly thought that central banks would print trillions and trillions of dollars, euros, yen, etc.

          Those that can’t imagine huge gains are unlikely to be able to ride a bull market to completion. They will exit way too early. Those that have studied history will know that 40,000 Dow or $500 silver are not outlandish predictions. They are completely normal targets for major bull markets and probably way too small considering the amount of liquidity floating around.

          1. mustang sally

            Gary< I am with you on gold and silver going much higher, but I think you will be surprised how low they will go before they get there.

            Shortin Sally

          2. Gary Post author

            Gold has already made its final bear market bottom. The 8 year cycle low is behind us. Gold dropped far enough to test the previous C-wave top at a little over $1000.

            The next 8 YCL isn’t due for another 6 years. No matter how bad you want it it’s not going to speed up. And in the meantime the dollar has started a bear market.

          3. zkotpen

            Yes, those five years… 2022… gold will either be on its way to the new all time highs you suggest, or on its way down to new lows below 2015.

            And if the consolidation is still in progress in 2022, I’d say that would be more bearish than bullish for the next longer term cycle low.

            But in the short term, we’re more in agreement, as we have been in metals for most of 2017.

  102. zkotpen

    Shortin Sal,

    I tried to page thru your post, but alas, my name caught my eye.

    Whaddaya say you and I both go and get our heads shaved between now and next Monday?

    That’s always a fun little exercise — you can rub your skull for a few weeks until the hair starts to grow back… just be careful of the sun!

  103. mustang sally

    Slow night here, so thought I would throw out some marker, 93.60 usd gives the next marker is at 95.71. Not good for the bull section,

    Shortin Sally

  104. jacob2

    Gold bear. Was all set to buy miners at the end of July but the complete lack of insider buying ( plenty of selling) in the sector changed my mind…. too many eyes, too many wanna be bullS, too strong a stock market = too early. Think we retest the Jan 16 lows. Maybe next year.

  105. Ed

    Jake and dboz,
    What do you say about following performance charts for JNUG and JDST?
    The pattern is same. How can you explain these likeness chart pattern.
    Who is making money here?
    JDST looks about 10 times worse than JNUG but both look real bad.

    https://invst.ly/4p1qq

    https://invst.ly/4p1rn

    I mean to ask this question for a long time. Can somebody explain this?
    Thanks

  106. dboz

    Those products decay over time. If you aren’t trending they head towards zero. That loss in those charts is due to reverse splits as they decay to zero. If you aren’t trending or volatile those products are not good buy and hold candidates. Best bet in miners is to buy good individual miners. They are risky and always have issues. They continue to struggle with earnings. Geopolitics make them risky. Danger makes them risky. Shaky finance make them risky. Rewards can be great but when you trade sideways for a year there are just better places to be.GDX is up 3 dents from January in a Bull Market. Now it could launch at any time and gain 5 bucks which is 25%. Or you could have just invested in the SM and made 30% with no risk or worry and made more the easy way. Gary says it all the time. I just refuse to participate. My loss.

  107. Ed

    Thanks dboz.
    I keep wondering where product decay come from. I heard that term a lot. I can never fully understood.
    From 2014, these ETFs have serious – baggers, that is minus baggers. Gary seems to thrive on these products. Just curious. Thank you.

  108. dboz

    They can’t tell you any simpler to stop putting your money here. We won’t let it break out. Move along to something else. We can and we will do what it takes to prevent the smokescreen from blowing away. If metals rise there must be a problem. So, metals will not rise. Billions of fake dollars say so. You can try but we will keep taking your money.

    1. Spanky

      It’s not a conspiracy. Metals (and commodities) are highly correlated with $usdjpy and it is in a new bull market, no matter what Gary says. Look at the monthly chart for $usdjpy. That is what a real baby bull looks like.

      The first 4-5 months of 2016 was nothing but a blip, a sharp correction in a raging bull in usdjpy (and conversely a raging bear in commodities).

  109. Ed

    I know. There is no more fair play in the market. Now everthing is rigged and they are rigged to benefit few information holders.
    CFTC, SEC, FBI they all close their eyes, only catches small fishes and send them jail.

    These products are very tempting. I made a double in early 2016 with GDX and Call options on AUY and HMY.
    In hindsight looking at JNUG and NUGT, I could have made 10 baggers easily. If I had done that, I wouldn’t be trading today. πŸ™‚
    Just dreaming

  110. Ed

    I could be also come out shirtless, losing everything. Very dangerous stuff. So is Direcxion gets major chunks of all product decays. Definitely not a product that you want to recommend to friends.

    1. HomerJ

      Ed, this guy’s made 5 videos on 2x 3x ETF decay, go watch them, this is the link to the first one: after that if you don’t understand the workings, then just stay away. Stay away anyway, these are not meant to be held for longer than a few days.

      1. Ed

        HomerJ,
        Excellent videos.
        You saved my shirts. If I did not saw these videos, I am sure I was bound to lose money big time soon or later.
        Seeing these videos is probably best thing, best advice, I ever got from anywhere, worth probably millions.
        Thank you very much!
        Have great day!

      2. Ed

        I have been trading levered ETFs a quite awhile. First started with Proshares during 2008-2009 meltdowns. Luckily I was trading Inverse leveraged ETFs then, completely ignorant of how leakage occurs. I heard “product decay” many many times but not really knowing how that occurs. Videos this morning probably saved my souls in many many ways.
        I am not sure why Proshares and Direcxion do not make these easy to understand videos as part of services to their clients.
        Just simple videos like these probably saved many souls who ruined their lives not how these levered ETFs work.
        Thanks HomerJ.

  111. Spanky

    The monthly charts for $silver and $silver:$gold ratio are depressing.

    $silver’s monthly stochastics say there is more downside coming.

    The $silver:$gold ratio looks like it is in a relatively young bear market based on the MAs. The 50 MMA crossed below the 200 MMA for the first time in almost 20 years. That wouldn’t give me warm fuzzies if I was a silver bug.

    $xjy looks poised to fall of a cliff. And it should based on the Fed shrinking its balance sheet in September.

    Would someone remind me why I own mining shares?

  112. desertsun999

    Gary, you are delusional if you think this economy is heating up! My god, I have been telling you for month’s that the restaurants were in trouble. Look at what EAT has done since the fall of 2016. Its down nearly 40%. If you really believe what you are saying I suggest you buy a chunk of that tomorrow……ha….ha and then watch it lose another 30 to 40% this fall. The unemployment numbers are horseshit, plain & simple. You are living in a sheltered world my friend. I am going to attach an article written by John Mauldin the other day. I am sure you are familiar with him. He is well respected throughout economic circles. he is mimicking what I have been telling you for a long time. The Fed is going to end up going back to quantitative easing because of the weakness in this economy. One of us is way out in left field here!
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2017/07/31/the-feds-monetary-tantrum-will-push-the-economy-into-outright-deflation/2/#64c40ee721a5

    1. Spanky

      As long as the market is rising, there will be no more easing. Period. As long as the CBs manage the stock market, unemployment will never go up.
      There is zero risk in the stock market. At most you will be down 5% if you buy at the all time high. The risk is in the currency markets, but the CBs can keep that game going forever.

      Forget about inflation. They are squeezing productivity and growth out of falling commodities (input costs). The Fed knows that if commodities are allowed to rise, the game is over. Not only because it will torpedo productivity and growth, but because it will crater bonds. The new bull in $usdjpy guarantees commodities/inflation won’t be rising for anytime soon.

      Buy the stock market on every red day. You cannot lose.

  113. butch

    With no bearish technical issues present and a small shake-out, I am adding more Gold shares . However COT commercial shorts on the USD dollar is alarmingly low and I must put into practice a famous quote from Franklin D Roosevelt. ” “There is nothing to fear but fear BigDaddy having your position”

  114. Steffmeister

    I expect a few big green candles the next couple of days or so, to finish the 21 candle up move, that has been in place since late December.

    Then 13->34days down ? A bounce in the dollar for a couple of weeks to reset sentiment as Gary likes to call it πŸ™‚

    I’ve got a strong sense that I am growing out of this blog … Gary’s is a street smart analyst and I enjoy reading his stuff, but most others is stuck in this “are you a Bull or a Bear kindergarten throwing sand in the sandbox stuff”

    /Steff”sandy eyes”Meister

  115. mustang sally

    Morning ED> You asked the question about the charts of jdst and jnug. These are not charts which move freely, They appear like regular charts of gdx, but are designed to allow the investor too accumulate. If you wanted to have a vehicle that would make money, do you want the public in on it , No so you make it the most undesirable chart out there , Who in there right mind would want to be in jdst. It has you not wanting to invest, so it is working, The most desirable item in the world is the least desirable. Listen to Einstein
    You can’t solve a problem with the same thinking that created it” that how this market will be resolved.

    Ridin the bucking bronco

    MS

    1. Ed

      Thanks mustang sally for your insight.
      I agree with you that information is everything in this business, and not many people want to share it with others. That is why I owe a BIG THANKS to HomerJ.
      You should watch them too if you are not quite down pack with leakage and product decay.

      1. Gary Post author

        There is decay if price is trending in the wrong direction or going sideways.

        There is significant outperformance if price is trending in the right direction.

        If you catch a strong trend higher in a triple leveraged fund it can deliver 3.5X or even 4X the underlying.

  116. Gary Post author

    Possible half cycle low in gold last night.

    So far things are playing out exactly as predicted.

    Now I’m waiting for the big surge in miners that will come out of the blue, catch the bears on the wrong side of the market, and catch most bulls on the sidelines.

    1. dboz

      You need to get that stock market pull back first. Maybe another week or two for that to start to kick in? THEN maybe FINALLY we will see some good action? Still holding TVIX.

      1. Gary Post author

        I wouldn’t plan on a bounce until the dollar reaches the 2016 low, and even then it may just keep going down in the same fashion as it went up in 2014.

  117. Goild

    Good morning,

    Most relevant indices point at a good day for gold.
    Recall that last gold topping had some gapping days and volatility which are missing in the current topping.
    At any event beware of falling knifes. Not only at the open but like yesterday at around 2:00 PM.
    Make good bucks today. Trade well, do not gamble or hope. Wait for the right setup.

  118. mustang sally

    As everyone is bullish here on the general market, here is my bear markers for the s&p.

    2250, 2050. 1900 1500.

    Remember what goes up on gas explodes down.

    Ready to short

    MS

  119. Ed

    Catalyst for gold this morning happen to be BOE decision to stay put with its interest rate 0.25%.
    I guess some were expecting interest hike. Decision 6-2, tells me hawkish tones we have witness last a month or so from ECB and Fed will tone down. A plus for gold.
    But gold price is so manipulated, expect this positive news will quickly wane off, and we already seeing that pre-market.
    GL you all,

    1. Pedestrian

      Looks to me like it will fall back to 17.50 by tomorrow and could be setting up as a bear flag. Too much exposure to too much risk in my opinion. If it turns against you its going to really hurt.

  120. Ed

    wifesaidnomoretrading,
    watch it though. USDJPY is most manipulated currency pair in the world. πŸ™‚
    Kamikaze Kuroda and Clueless Yellen are best buddies among all central bankers.
    They dig together.

  121. Strike

    91.88 on $USD is the whole story. Whether it takes one or two touches to establish a trend, that is the single most important indicator IMHO to establish whether the gold bulls or bears prevail. Stay tuned.

  122. Goild

    32 minutes of trading going with the trend means lunch money in my pocket +$610.
    I am going to sleep now.
    Good trading to all.

    JNUG FILLED AT $18.1848 Market Sell 1000 at Market
    JNUG FILLED AT $18.2022 Market Sell 1000 at Market
    JNUG FILLED AT $18.01 Market Buy 1000 at Market
    JNUG FILLED AT $18.1154 Market Buy 1000 at Market
    JNUG FILLED AT $18.17 Market Sell 2000 at Market
    JNUG FILLED AT $18.12 Market Sell 1000 at Market
    JNUG FILLED AT $18.0862 Market Buy 1000 at Market
    JNUG FILLED AT $18.0954 Market Buy 1000 at Market
    JNUG FILLED AT $18.1454 Market Buy 1000 at Market
    JNUG FILLED AT $18.0592 Market Sell 1000 at Market
    JNUG FILLED AT $17.8585 Market Sell 1000 at Market
    JNUG FILLED AT $17.7262 Market Buy 1000 at Market
    JNUG FILLED AT $17.9215 Market Buy 1000 at Market

  123. Ed

    If USD/JPY breaks 110 handles and stay 109s next few days, Gold miners will do really well. πŸ˜‰
    Staying in 109s is key. Last time it dip below 110, it stayed there like a couple of minutes and BOJ just dumped YEN to keep it above 110.
    If BOJ lose control and not able keep it above 110, then it’s going to be BIG.

    1. dboz

      They coordinate with us so like Gary says, nothing is going to happen before that summit. I expect things to launch coming out of the there, markets down and PM’s to da moon! LOL

    1. Gary Post author

      Now go look at RGLD and NEM.

      It’s a bifurcated market as would be expected during a basing phase. Some are doing very well and some poorly. This is why I don’t trade individual stocks. I don’t know how to predict who is going to get rewarded and who will get punished. I also can’t predict company specific news. That’s one of the reasons I’ve shied away from biotech. I can’t predict when Washington might lob a bomb on the sector.

      1. dboz

        Yep, same here. Moved to ETF’s only for the miners. Easier to manage and easier to buffer the take downs. AG is going down big tomorrow so it is going to be very tough for miner funds to hold these levels at this point.

    2. Herman

      EXK is company-specific, changes in annual production profile have led to disappointing 1st and 2nd quarter figures. May affect other silver miners as well today.

      1. dboz

        BTG similar issues, HL similar issues. You can’t make money when silver is 16 bucks and gold is 1250. Or you don’t crank up the plant to full capacity to sell at rock bottom prices.

      1. Pedestrian

        Wow, scary stuff there. Boy were you right about that company. Anyway, no loss. I watched it fall and stayed the hell out. No positions on all summer actually and no real plans to get wet unless gold gives me the green light to short today/tomorrow.

  124. mustang sally

    Afternoon all: For those interested in dust, anything over 27.77 will lead back to 29.50 a break above 29.50 leads to the marker at 31.50. Will keop posted as we move back up.

    Shortin Sally

  125. mustang sally

    Get on the dusty bus it is leaving the station,, sorry Gary I think we got some deflation happening, what better way to get the profits back for companies, cheap commodities. Just think how happy people will be driving around in free gas, and tesla is going to get bombed with cheap gas.

    Shortin Sally

  126. dboz

    Well, sadly to say I will probably miss the big metals explosion coming next week. I am heading out on vacation and did not want to have to deal with management. Small TVIX position still on the table with 15.34 stop. Large UGAZ position, no stops and HOUSE OF PAIN with the bottom about to drop out of NG and the rest of the energy sector. Maybe the heat wave will give things a boost next week. Sold all metals and miners already. Regroup and come back to trending PM sector bull market is my hope. Jump on the train.

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