291 thoughts on “Chart of the Day – S & P

        1. Gary Post author

          I would like to play LABU but I’m nervous that the idiots in Washington might do something stupid so I’ll stick with a safer play in TQQQ.

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s still up in the air.

      If tomorrow starts off with a big rally then we move to the 4th daily cycle scenario and the ICL gets pushed out to Oct. This is the scenario where the PPT comes in to stop the selling and push the market back up ahead of Jackson Hole. This seems likely to me, but not what I would prefer.

      The other scenario is they just get out of the way and let the ICL finish, The market breaks below the June low and the intermediate trend line next week and we complete a natural ICL. Then we rally through the rest of the year. This scenario seems less likely as it would require allowing the market to correct into a Fed event, and there just hasn’t been any history of that being allowed to happen for several years now. But this is the scenario I would prefer to see. We would just get the ICL over with and get on with the bubble.

  1. victor

    It’s amazing how much patience you have Gary to repeat the same scenario 8-10 times for lazy people. I bet someone will ask abt it again.

  2. jacob2

    Gary, Potential rocket fuel for market bubble; tax reform and infrastructre spending. Anti trump but at this point his agenda has been totally dismissed. If it finally begins to look like it might come to pass we’re going to have a serious run on cyclical stocks and commodity inflation. Gains will probably be even greater outside the U.S. Only the problem of getting through September remains. Thanks for putting your ideas out there.

  3. bginvestor

    I asked Gary to take his spreadsheets of each trader AND just summarize all trades on one page..

    For example, each month, each trader with his percent gain/loss on the a monthly basis. Once setup , it automatically calculates.

    No so hard, and everyone can see and talk about it. Would take a person a few minutes to cut and paste.


    PS Gary, just do this! here’s the format.
    Month of August:
    pedestrian X% gain/loss
    Goild X% gain/loss

  4. zkotpen


    Your precious metals forecast is the antithesis of me πŸ˜‰

    100% empirical — so complex!

  5. Goild


    For those that contribute it would be fair to see other’s trades.
    Those who participate can actually post here their trades ‘a la’ AT.

    I do not participate but would enjoy seeing the trades.

  6. Pedestrian

    Gary, on the prior thread you wrote that every US recession has been preceded by a rise in crude oil but you did not link a chart before dismissing the idea out of hand. But in fact we have had a large increase in WTI prices since coming off the price bottom in January of 2016 after a long hard decline.

    Since that time the price has more than doubled which qualifies this rise as a precursor to a recession (it rose 115%). We are incidentally overdue on a cyclical basis for a recession so one cannot be ruled out in any case. Last, my charting suggests that WTI will peak near 56-57 before turning back down. So you and those others holding ERX should have a good chance to recover but after that it’s going to be time to bail out again once WTI hits its top.


    1. Gary Post author

      It’s the shock to the economy that does the damage. So a move from $26 to $52 isn’t necessarily going to affect consumers.

      On the other hand a rise from $50 to $150 in less than a year is a huge blow to the consumer. It means instead of $40 to fill up his car it now costs $80-$100. If he burns two tanks of gas a week going back and forth to work and other errands he just spent an extra $360 a month on gas, and of course that’s not the only story either. With gas prices high the cost of transporting anything has gone way up. So not only is gas taking a huge bite out of his monthly pay check but so is food and anything else that has shipping costs.

      It’s not interest rates that cause a recession, it’s inflation.

  7. SLEP

    That famous Soothsayer, Linda Schurman, says the total solar eclipse portends the stock market is headed for a crash, and the economy is headed for a recession. Also, Harry Dent is at it again, predicting the DOW will loose 6,000 points in short order. 😱

    1. ziasDad

      I’ve used this analogy before: If a weather forecaster predicts rain tomorrow, but tomorrow comes and the sun is shining. He predicts rain for the next day. Next day comes and the sun still shines. This goes on for 20 days. On the 21st day it rains. The forecaster then says, “see I knew it was gonna rain, I predicted it.” Of course, no one would think that that guy was an accurate weather man.

      But stock market prognosticators do this repeatedly! And get away with it. Dent may have forecasted a 6000 point drop in the DOW many times over the past several years, but it hasn’t happened. And yet, if this time it does happen and we get that 6000 point drop, he’ll be tooting his horn, saying, “I called the crash!” Why don’t we don’t see these guys for what they are: Really lousy analysts!

    1. jacob2

      Fall usually weak for oil. Seasonal strength starts in December. More bouncing along the bottom likely.

    2. Pedestrian

      Well if oil goes down that often means only one thing. The US dollar is about to start going back up.

      And then wrap your head around this chart I linked below courtesy of Macrotrends.
      Notice that whenever the S&P declines then so does oil with the S&P leading.

      Well back in August 2014 the two parted ways with crude falling while the S&P rose almost straight up. Only one of them is telling the truth. Its just a huge divergence. What I want you to consider though is that if the S&P is about to fall again then what does that tell us about the prospects for crude oil?


  8. bginvestor

    sure, it could turn into a left translated cycle, but I think its going to end up as a right translated cycle..

    on Friday, WTI not only pivot, it closed above the 10 MA.. that was strong. Its in a new recent ICL. If there’s follow through, XLE is catching up … my bet is on next week, looking for pivot low.

  9. Bluebellkid

    On Thursday, the put/call closed at 1.18, the highest since Jan. 18. On Friday, it closed at 1.14, again a high level. Those kinds of readings are often associated with short-term market bottoms.

  10. dboz

    I would assume that a full solar eclipse will cause the market to go crazy tomorrow. Big rally in the SM and big tank in the miners. I am not confident, but that is what I am playing for now. I do think OIL could have been a head fake last week, but we could see a run up here for a few bucks before it pulls back. I am looking over some stuff for the contest. It’s tough right now.

  11. Ed

    COT shows very Bearish on PM.

    Are you guys not seeing something strange shits going on with US Navy??
    It just can’t be coincidence. Two destroyers in row ram into freight ships.
    Do we have a Navy that could not even navigate around a slow moving big commercial freight ship?

    Just sad.

    1. Gary Post author

      The COT looks pretty neutral to me. The Blees rating is 54. If it gets under 10 then I would start to worry.

      1. Ed

        Just matter of using a different yardstick.
        I look at changes from last week. Commercials added 30K more contracts in Short side.
        Usually that leads to price decline. Not always . But then again that information is 4 trading days old. Anything can happen. They are deep pockets, they can surely paint COT picture anyway they want to look right before Option expiration.

    2. Pedestrian

      Maybe I’m nuts but I was thinking that Russia (?) is engaging in some kind of electronic warfare that disrupts navigation and this is the live testing to see if it works on US ships. They obviously need more tinfoil on consoles of the destroyers.

      Oh wait, maybe I need more tinfoil for my hat!

    3. victor

      As a former marine on submarine destroyer I know many things the public can’t see. Behind those looking scary metal on the water there’s humans with all their weaknesses. It’s take up to 2 yrs or never to turn drafted city boys to become real fighter. Sleeping on a shift is a big problem and there’s nothing you can do as a ship on the water is a natural lullaby for humans.

      1. Ed

        Former Marine here too.
        Never on a ship.
        So were you a part of security detail in a submarine?
        That had to be a very tough job.
        Semper Fi

        1. Nada

          He didn’t say he was on a submarine. He indicated he was stationed on an anti submarine surface ship.

  12. Ed

    I think somebody is trying to tell Trump your military is not worth what you spend your money.
    Basically we are supporting Military Complex their big fat paychecks but they are not delivering quality goods they promised to American taxpayers.
    Yes, these are the same folks Trump is bringing in to fill the Swamp.
    With sending off all those people who helped him get elected unceremoniously, now I start to seeing the true color of this guy who has no loyalty to his people, to his base who got him into the office,

    WAR may be only thing that saves US Dollar. But with two destroyers get into traffic accidents like that just don’t give you a lot of confidence.

  13. Ed

    With tinfoil hat on, I would say it’s more likely Chinese than Russian.
    Russian already proved their electronic warfare superiority over in USS Donald Cook incident.
    Plus, Putin has no bone with US at this time. It’s Trump impending announcement about Afghanistan “New Silk Road” and South China Sea that may be China all worked up.

        1. Pedestrian

          He might have the right idea but he was several years too early. Gary is right he is too bearish because he scared so many people out of the water that they ended up missing the biggest bull in history. And then his subscribers keep getting positioned short so its just lose, lose, lose. By the time the crash comes the PTB will probably outlaw shorts against financials and other key equities so you won’t even benefit from the decline. Its the kind of idiocy that will make the eventual fall a record breaker as all the stops get pulled out to prevent investors from selling. Either that or we just a get a long stock market holiday. Its happened before. And when the market reopens it gaps down so hard day after day that nobody can even get out.

          There, I just outdid Hussman!

  14. Goild

    Nice spike. Sold my 3K JNUG shares and recovered the $1.1 K lost on Friday on the cash account.
    Now I need to get bucks for lunch.
    Good trading to all.

  15. Ed

    It’s always safe to assume “You are being played” if you are not sure.
    You are playing blindly against the deep pockets who have all the real-time market information.
    They might have information on your real-time portfolio changes.

  16. Nada

    As stated Friday.. hold your shorts. However, tail risk was dumped hard on Friday so we bmay ounce on the trendline here (SPX) or hopefully break and confirm drop into ICL.

  17. Ed

    With Jackson Ass Holes Meet coming up, don’t play too exotic.
    You are likely trapped either way. If they don’t get you Slow Bleeding from 3X paper cuts wil kill you.l

  18. ARends

    Just another spanner in wheels, looking at fib extension weekly nasdaq comp from 2009, we at prcise extention from 2015.https://invst.ly/4vdp1

    (tinhat on) Maybe the dark state could let a SM fall happen now as they surely in charge rather than TRUMP concerning FED and they really might just set him up as the fall guy

    1. Nada

      Maybe. It was a very sad day to see a patriot like Steve Bannon let got. I am wondering if Trump is beginning to fell the the pressure of not being able to get anything done w/out support of some key republicans and Bannon was a sacrifice; Republicans such as (McCain Ryan Mcconnell) are turncoats.

      He should of hired 10 more guys like Bannon vs removing. The next few weeks may give us some insight as to his direction.

      1. roadrunner

        not too big of a deal. Bannon will be more effective promoting the agenda on the outside than in the sewer. i think you will see this play out over the next few weeks. of course the globalist authoritarians know how to to get to Trump. He has one big weakness which could hurt his presidency….his daughter.

        1. Nada

          I have heard Bannon was often butting heads with Ivanka and Kushner due to their globalist viewpoints, so you have a valid point there. I hope you are right about Steve’s new position back at Breitbart.

  19. Ed

    You rarely see Gold moving higher to repeat previous break-through $1,300 a day earlier.
    Normally, once it gets turn back from the major resistance, it usually keeps falling.
    Not this time.
    It is trying again today with very low volume(?).

  20. Spanky

    Pretty unusual MACD action on GDX. I think this fits with the “something big” is coming theme I have been seeing, IMO. If we can take out Friday’s high by tomorrow, that will mean Friday was just a bull trap.


    The weekly chart also has extremely narrow bollinger bands–like the narrowest ever.


  21. Nada

    Not so sure about the DCL in oil. Giving up a lot of its gains. NatGas on the other hand decided to move higher for no reason.

  22. jacob2

    Deep summer dog days hard to get excited about much. Biotech and copper strong, long term trend?

  23. Bigdaddy

    I sold my 4000 HGU at 13.99 (paid average of 13.77) for a nice profit of 880 bucks. probably selling too soon but I wanted some lunch money. I should have sold it last week for more money.

    1. Herman

      Gold seems to exhaust itself to the upside, which may eventually result in a sharper drop into the DCL. Bullish stubborness?

  24. Goild

    The JNUG/NUGT look strong, willing to take off.
    I recovered from Friday and got lunch money for today.
    I should stop here with plus $1697.19.
    Have a nice day and make good money.

  25. Ed

    I can’t hardly wait what Trump would say when the market crashes under his watch.
    Who is he going to blame then since he already took the all the credits for market peak, OBAMA. πŸ™‚

  26. JJHarmen

    Where are Don and Mustang Sally? We haven’t heard a peep from either of them for couple of days.

    1. Bigdaddy

      Maybe Mustang Sally passed away. Wasn’t she in a home of some kind? The last thing she said was to short everything. As for Don, i sure hope he didn’t let Pedestrian get under his skin. Last thing he said was the stock market was going lower and he sold all his miners. i am out of the miners now too and have zero gold or silver. Facebook is making me sick of being short.

      1. Pedestrian

        Didn’t I leave enough posts on the weekend while all you bugs were hiding under rocks afraid to show your faces or leave any commentary? Bet you need more of me. But nahhhh. Nothing big happening today. Just sideways action and consolidation. What’s there to add?

  27. Ed

    We have a very thin-skin, short-sighted egomaniac for president.
    He does not have an ounce of leadership traits. A leader who dogs his subordinates and dump them as soon as they become a liability. A leader who can never give a credit to his subordinate for a job well-done.

    Gold will do Well under his presidency.
    He is itching divert people attention away from Mueller’s investigation even if it means a war and killing millions people.

    1. roadrunner

      You seem to be more upset about Bannon leaving than than Bannon himself. Bannon is doing exactly what he said he was going to to do, stick around for 6 months and then leave. Ok, he lasted 7. That is all the time he needed to observe the swamp from the inside. In case you haven’t noticed, the Mueller investigation, the investigation in search of a crime, is going nowhere.

  28. Ed

    When do we ever had this many Generals and Goldman Sachs in White House?

    And what was that all about “Goy, Bye” headline for Bannon gets his ass kicked.

  29. Bigdaddy

    I like Trump. The media are doing everything they can to turn the public against him. Sickening to watch it all happen.

    1. Nada

      Do not worry BD. They will be known in history as the biggest group of crybabies that walked the Earth – snowflakes who are still crying in the streets that their precious election was lost to Donald J Trump. You could not write a better case for eating crow. Day after Day, they have to eat the same ol’ shit knowing they lost.

      I wake up each and every day with a smile on my face knowing the Trump is POTUS. I don’t care if he gets a damn thing done or not, just knowing he is president is all I need. To those that think he will be impeached. Dream on. The Antifa folks will get their civil war if that is attempted.

      1. Ed

        I agree 100%.
        I would stick with Trump any day against Hillary.
        It could have been a lot worse having that Bleach Clean Wipe as president.

    2. Christian

      I’m not really a fan of Trump but HRC is full of lies and deceit — you can see it in her eyes. She’s a snake and it’s unfortunate that liberals were dumb enough to buy into her bullsh*t.

      Also worth mentioning: Trump is somewhat anti-establishment and if Google the ‘deep state’; you’ll understand why the news media is always trying to paint an ugly picture with him in the spotlight.

  30. Goild


    I would be long on the miners. Looks like a good trade.
    Though, I would wait for a good dip to get into them unless you bought them much lower.

  31. Ed

    No more money for market at least until Jackson Hole.
    All Central Bankers follow Fed.
    If Yellen insists on Balance Sheet Normalization, you can forget about stock markets until QE4 announced.

  32. Ed

    LONG PM.


    And if you are short-term traders, don’t ever ask that question ” who is a long in this blog?”
    Almost everyone in this blog are day traders who don;t care about a long term gold price movement.

    1. Christian

      “And if you are short-term traders, don’t ever ask that question ” who is a long in this blog?” almost everyone in this blog are day traders who don’t care about a long term gold price movement.”

      What a silly thing to say Eddy — You should always care about the long term trend irregardless of whether you are a day trader or not. Why? Momentum on a day trade is hugely influenced by the larger intermediate trend, and should be taken into account every step of the way.

  33. Ed

    Obviously you don’t understand what is a long-term really means.
    What do you consider long-term?
    Daily cycle, Half cycle, Intermediate cycle, or is it Yearly cycle?
    Look at your favorite DUST monthly charts, and tell me again you are anything but a day-trader. πŸ™‚
    I should have said “cyclers” instead day-traders.

      1. Christian

        Nope — I was expecting a pull-back and/or a re-test this week. If anything, I’ll be adding to my position if given an opportunity to do so.

        Remember, despite what Alex @chartfreaks believes.. it’s getting late in this FIRST daily cycle so the best play at this juncture is to position yourself for a correction.

        1. Nada

          Yes I would agree. To be clear, I was never saying Alex was right or wrong, I was just putting his idea on the table. I am still looking for 1307-1316 before correction, but yes I am also adding short positions to my portfolio in preparation for the DCL hunt.

    1. Christian

      You’re right. I don’t understand much of anything Haha! You’re funny Ed. Funny looking πŸ™‚

      1. CaliJoe

        Buy when it hits around 20%. I personally like energy, people literally have given up and that’s when things start looking interesting. I still think Gary would be proven right and big moves will occur in energy stocks.

  34. Nada

    Yeah, looks like it was a squeeze related to the news Friday about a possible shutdown at a TX refinery. One day gains then sells off 50%.

  35. Lenapowich

    I have to get out of the state of Illinois. It is getting crazier here by the day. I don’t dare drive into Chicago anymore. The anti-white racism is out of control and you can get killed just sitting a traffic stop by hate filled people.

      1. Lenapowich

        Homerj, it’s not so easy to get a gun here, unless, it seems, you are black and in a gang. They don’t have any trouble getting guns.

        1. Lenapowich

          I am moving. I have had enough of this insanity. The Democrats have ruined this city and state.

          1. HomerJ

            The US is a weird country, so many people believe in the baby jebus and skydaddy “god”, they are entirely removed from reality of the country’s demise. Too busy watching celebrities while eating chips and drinking beer thinking they have freedom.

          2. HomerJ

            Who me? I don’t have a problem with an imaginary entity, just how it is enforced into society and the fact that belief in it can negate taxes for certain organizations and muddle the minds of humans. So I guess, yes, I sure do!

          3. Pedestrian

            After death we all become fictional characters if we are not part of anybodies memory anymore. You only really live on if you have achieved something of lasting significance that later generations think is important or if you made a difference in peoples lives that endures. Like Confucius or Buddha or Jesus Christ.

            They are still real because we remember them.

        2. HomerJ

          You can add Harry Potter, Bilbo Baggins, Sherlock Holmes, Homer, Persephone, Zeus, Ra, Superman, Spiderman, The Hulk…. I can go on and on… All fictional characters, no part of religion is based in reality.

    1. Nada

      About 2 weeks ago, I mentioned the coming race war in the US. I recall someone mocking me about that comment. Time can certainly change perspective a bit. Lenapowich, not sure why it is hard for you to arm yourself, but you can buy a gun from an individual with no paperwork required. Guns and Ammo, thats the gold/silver of the future πŸ™‚

  36. Ed

    Gold is stuck @1,297.
    Looks like we are going see it fall, fall hard, around $1,205 by EOW.
    Time to load up DUST, weekly traders.

    1. Nada

      1205 and by end of the week? Dammmmn son, what have you been smoking? πŸ™‚ . We had a confirmed ICL at 1204. We are looking for just a dip to a daily cycle low.

  37. Bigdaddy

    The only positions I have left are short the stock market. You guys should know what that means. i have been on a deadly winning streak so trade accordingly. The only one making me sick is FB. That piece of shit company is headed for the dumpster just like Netflx, which I should not have sold.

  38. Bigdaddy

    Can anybody figure out where Pedestrian is at with gold? He showed up here a while back when gold was 1250 saying gold was going to 1200 bucks and it now that it’s 1300, he says it’s he’s not ready to short it. WTF? The other thing that puzzles me is that he admits to a loss. How does that work? Even i have had losses. Something isn’t right about that guy.

    1. Pedestrian

      Idiot, I already told you I have no position so how can I have a loss. Secondly, why do you even care?

  39. Bigdaddy

    Gary admits to losses, Christian admits to having losses, Don admits to losses, Dboz admits to losses and everyone knows I don’t lie about my losses But, never Pedestrian. My dog can smell that pile of horseshit.

    1. Nada

      Hey how about an update on the Dixie? – You see what I am talking about here? When you had a win shorting the Russel2k, you came here tooting your horn. How is that dollar long treating you?

      1. Gary Post author

        It’s all just hot air unless they are willing to join the challenge giving me real-time trades including percentages.

  40. Ed

    I am 100% in WPM @18.70.
    I figure I get 10 Bagger by end of next year.
    That’s what I call a long-term Trade.
    In and out but stay with it until Gold tops. That’s my strategy.

      1. Pedestrian

        Just kidding of course. But WPM looks like it broke down from its pattern. It’s a buy again near it’s December 2016 lows. If that level holds of course. There is more downside ahead for the next while if you can take the heat.

  41. Ed

    It does not mean a thing if you don’t put up real money.
    And when my real money is concern, I don’t play it for contest or proved to anyone.

    1. Gary Post author

      Complete nonsense. Just make the same calls in the challenge that you’re making in your portfolio. How hard was that?

      1. Christian

        I dunno if you noticed but there’s an emotional component involved when you trade real money Gary. Why do you think I keep busting your balls about the SMT Portfolio?
        It’s made of paper.

        1. dboz

          I actually have more emotion trading for the contest than I do real money. Real money to me is easy come easy go. I like to win though so I get an extra shot of adrenalin doing the contest. I actually took a position in the stock market today in both my personal and contest account. Been 2 years since I did that. Guaranteed to crash now! LOL

        2. Gary Post author

          How long do you think I’ve been doing this? Who is the one taught you about Cycles so that you don’t have to panic during Corrections?

          1. Pedestrian

            I knew it. Teacher/ student relationship. and there’s rap across the knuckles for Christia

          2. Christian

            And how long do you think I’ve been doing this?! Lol!

            Gary, with all due respect, I was making money long before I met you because I’m a hell of chartist and I don’t panic during corrections because I know better, so calm your beautiful Ass down..!

            And TAUGHT is a big word.. You’re not the only one teaching Cycles and I already knew the basics before you caught my eye. You were the ‘cherry on top’ sorta speak and I thank you for that πŸ™‚

            Nevertheless.. It doesn’t change the fact that the SMT portfolio is made of paper! If I was gonna start an online business, charge people a $500 membership and proclaim to be one of the best; I would open a separate account and trade $100,000 of MY REAL MONEY for everyone to see. Period.

            You can deflect and argue common sense all you want but that my friend is how you do it!!

    1. dboz

      I thought Friday looked like an oil head fake. Big shake down again today. Energy is a brutal whipsawing roller coaster and to this point providing minimal gains. I still like trying to ride it though. But I hate it at the same time.

  42. Nada

    Regardless of cycles, we are still in the channel and in an uptrend:

    With that said, I started adding GLD 122 puts for w/Oct 20th expiration. I will keep my 122 calls late November open for upside surprises and average down once we hit DCL.

  43. dboz

    Gary is probably right about JACKSON HOLE. Figure a run up here is going to happen this week even it is only for the short term.

      1. JJHarmen

        PED is right, he never posts a trade because he never makes any. What PED does do is make lots and lots of predictions some contradicting. Gold is going up , gold is going down. Round and round he goes.
        Enjoy him you can.

        1. Pedestrian

          How old are you again JJ? Was it 60 or something? See that’s the thing we learn from guys like you. There is no virtue in growing old in this kind of world if you played your cards wrong. Because cynicism is all the reward you have for a life poorly lived and it shows in your daily negativity. So all you have to look forward to each day is this lonely little blog where you get a some much needed spleen-venting space and your name in print so can show off how foolish you are. Kind of funny really. We were all young and inspired once. Most had good potential at the start. But life has not treated us equally. Think I’ll take a dip in the pool and maybe wash off some the bad vibes you put out every day.

          Much better.

  44. dboz

    If JNUG breaks 19, I will get excited. Until then, just more chop and grind. Things are starting to feel heavy in the metals and miners to me. Maybe just setting up for a big move, direction unknown.

  45. Jimsee

    fundamentals at new yearly high on gold, sub 1250 is wishful bearish thinking until it reverses imo….1320 test more likely.

    1. victor

      Listening now a very relaxing music and looking at XAU 8hr and daily I’m become very un-relaxed. Why I sold today my HGU? It will go up. Hopefully there’s no gap in the morning to repurchase. We are going to 1335.

  46. Pedestrian

    Man, we are getting within a hair of copper breaking down. Whatever is going to happen at Jackson Hole is going to put a damper on the whole growth story because I am sure its going to start selling off along with the precious metals group. Between now and then we might just see continued consolidation around the respective tops without prices going anywhere at all. We can feel the suspense building as traders remain uncommitted in either bull or bear camps and the trend is directionless for the moment.

    1. victor

      Sure, I’m waiting for copper down but it still going to “undercut” upstairs, there’s a room still, and take a silver up with it.

  47. Gary Post author

    Is anyone watching the dollar? If it breaks down like I warned then the gold cycle could stretch extremely long.

    as a matter of fact if the dollar breaks down it could push everything up

    1. Pedestrian

      Looks like it will rise to about 93.60 by Friday and most likely break out on Monday.


  48. butch

    Gold well above the upper trend line of triangle(s). + COT bullish. Exited my oil shorts and added more gold . Looking for 1385 in the near future.

  49. dboz

    Show me the volume that says we have the juice in gold. Gold will drop back down to the trend line on a back test. If it fails there, look out below. If it reverses there, load the truck. No rush. We aren’t going to 1385 in a straight line unless we enter a war. That said, I did predict a 15-20% rise was possible. Anyone’s guess. All I know, the longer we sit there and don’t move up in miners, the better the chance for a pullback. Not a drop, a pullback.

    Looking at wheat and WEAT. Wheat has 9% daily bulls. Lowest of any commodity. Not saying it can’t go lower. Just saying you run out of sellers at some point.

    1. Pedestrian

      Thanks Boss. I will start watching that chart. Looks good for a strong bounce fairly soon.

    1. Pedestrian

      My horse is holding value if that’s any help. No rust so far. Not much of a used horse market either!

      1. Pedestrian

        PS Boss, I’m buying Weat first thing tomorrow. Nice catch buddy. Wasn’t even on my radar until you mentioned it.

  50. Goild

    I have been holding 1K shares of XLE since it was at $68. I do not understand why it continues to sink as it holds many OIL companies. Hopefully it has reached a bottom.

    I need your advice, even though dboz sees the miners sink, I think this is a good spot to get some to hold for a good time say several months. What about getting 1K GDX shares? Spanky is long.

    Though one should be careful about a possible third small undercut coming soon.

    Or is there another asset to get into that looks very good?
    It would be great if several here would agree on a potential good trade.

    1. HomerJ

      It will sink as long as US production stays up. Gary doesn’t think so, he feels it’s all based on cycles. Maybe he’ll be right for a bit but he’ll be wrong unless something changes materially, for the long run.

  51. Goild


    Why getting into the WEAT thing?

    It is falling, falling, and falling. Same as XLE when I got it.
    The lesson is that the chances for falling knifes to continue falling are greater than finding a reversal point.
    Let the reversal show first.

    1. dboz

      Don’t go all in, phase into WEAT. Pick up 1000 and see what happens. If it drops another 10 cents add 1000. If it rises 10 cents add 1000. Build a position. At 9% bulls it just seems like a good place to try. Set a stop. Smaller positions here. Add as it reveals itself. I just took 1000. Probably will need consolidation. Buy when others fear and hate. 9% is pretty hated.

      1. dboz

        Chart is beyond oversold. It’s flushed down the toilet. Nothing goes down forever. 6 weeks straight down. Rally time coming.

    2. Pedestrian

      It has a great technical pattern Goild and the time is right. Wheat futures have gapped up 7% this morning already and I expect WEAT will move the same when it opens. Looks like I missed the first part of the show but I am still appreciative that Boss pointed it out. This one could move up 25% by year end which is a whole lot better than most of our gold stocks have done recently.

      1. dboz

        Look at the perfect break out and back test and now bounce back off the trend line on wheat futures.

        Watch gold for same pattern.

  52. Goild

    Good morning,

    Dboz, Ped,

    OK I will get the 1000K WEAT shares and let us call this the Dboz trade.
    Let Dboz manage it.

    1. JJHarmen

      WEAT is down and making new lows to 6.45. What am I missing here? Are you guys getting different quotes that what I am seeing?

  53. Pedestrian

    I just read the Treasury Secretary Mnunchin went to Fort Knox yesterday and then Tweeted “gold is safe”. The first visit by a Treasury Sec in 70 years to see the gold stash could not have come at a stranger time given the debt ceiling deadline is rapidly closing in. With less than 6 weeks to go before the money runs out I suspect there were demands for assurances from other quarters for a public statement that the gold has not been sold off or transferred out. But I would be surprised if anyone felt more assured by the treatment of that visit given there were no photos, no video, no formal public statements nor even a partial or complete audit. Certainly there was no fanfare and the Secretary seemed to make the effort to minimize the importance of the day while driving the gold community over the edge as doubts have persisted for many years about the veracity of the bullion in the vaults. In the end the bugs are left with more questions than answers and the feeling they are being mocked. I think they have probably missed the point though. The visit was more likely an exercise of the current administration to know for themselves if the prior administration was entirely upfront about the gold hoard given so little transparency prevails in its regard. And secondly I cannot help but wonder if there were not high level demands from the Chinese for evidence or confirmation that the two trillion dollar pile of metal is for real and not just a paper fraud given their dollar surplus if roughly an offsetting entry equal to what Fort Knox is claimed to have on store. So forget it gold bugs. The visit was never intended to assuage your concerns or put your worried minds to rest. As is usually the case, this was just another exercise in politics where the levels of distrust run very deep this past year such that even the international community has doubts about American integrity.

  54. Goild

    What about today?

    USD up, yields up, gap down = likely a bad day for gold/miners,

    I am tempted to get 1K or 2K shares of GDX/GDXJ to hold for weeks or months.
    How many are miners long?

    1 Spanky
    2 Goild
    3 ?

  55. Goild

    Sorry, I do not see WEAT to be an ETF. I am a chicken here so I will not get the 1K weat shares.
    Best of luck to you.

  56. Kruzoe

    Well, the eclipse came and left. The market did no crash and Trump did not resign. Time to start earning lunch money again.

  57. Goild

    Volume in gold/mines is low, things are slow, the candle patterns unusual.
    What is going on?
    A Tuesday is usually very dynamic.

    Is it the Jason Hole thing?

    1. Pedestrian

      This is consolidation around a top in my books, Goild. Do you recall last week I was saying just to hold back and bide your time since the chart needed more work before we would get a direction to play. That’s still the case and I am not taking action yet as price slowly grinds sideways towards Friday. No need to be hasty. I think it will all come together nicely in the end and shorts will be rewarded but entering too early is just a waste of time unless you like to make yourself crazy watching a screen going nowhere.

    1. Troy

      Agreed. I built a position in SVXY last week since I can’t find TVIX or UVXY shares available to short. Doing well so far.

  58. Pedestrian

    Meanwhile, the Euro is still within its rising channel but I think that will change by next Monday. I am also waiting for the dollar to see something over 93.80 which would give us a channel break to the upside. Gold won’t get moving down until those two things happen.

  59. JJHarmen

    Anyone who sold their miners last week or bought DUST, made the right move. Maybe I should have done the same . The metals seem to be holding up well though, no big smash downs. I will hold on to GDX and see what happens.

    1. Christian

      Maybe — bare mind, Miners are currently consolidating and may attempt another push up before rolling over, which means the Bulls might be able to pull another dollar out of this trade.

      But don’t kid yourself.. this daily cycle is starting to run late and any move up will likely be in the form of an exhaustion candle. That’s your cue to get out!

  60. Spanky

    The commodity complex looks very weak to me. Sure Jackson Hole could turn everything on a dime, but I am not sure this time.

    FWIW, back in 2010, commodities started rallying a full month before QE2 was announced in Jackson Hole (probably GS and JPM frontrunning). Of course, commodities most notably silver, went on the spike bigtime into 2011.

    No rally before the news this time though. In a vacuum, the chart looks very weak to me and the June look almost certain to be taken out. Double bottom/reversal point? Maybe, but at that point the 2016 lows will be spitting distance away. Now wouldn’t that be a nice little stop run.


  61. Spanky

    OK let me try that again, in English this time.

    The commodity complex looks very weak to me. Sure Jackson Hole could turn everything on a dime, but I am not sure this time.

    FWIW, back in 2010, commodities started rallying a full month before QE2 was announced in Jackson Hole (probably GS and JPM frontrunning). Of course, commodities most notably silver, went on to spike bigtime into 2011.

    No rally before the news this time though. In a vacuum, the chart looks very weak to me and the June lows look almost certain to be taken out. Double bottom/reversal point? Maybe, but at that point, the 2016 lows will be spitting distance away. Now wouldn’t that be a nice little stop run?


  62. Spanky

    Barring a miracle close, I am going to now assume that last friday’s massive reversal marked a daily cycle top in the miners and metals. Based on the ugly daily chart for GDX, it’s quite possible all or nearly all of the gains will be wiped out on the trip down. Perhaps a break below the 50 dma to get longs to spill their positions?

    I am old turkey long miners, but I would rather we not have to re-test the 2016 lows or even get within spitting distance if it can be helped.

  63. Goild

    About 50 executions so far and only plus $65 bucks.
    Need to calm down and wait.

    Good trading to all.

  64. Sassybabe

    Could someone explain what is going on with gold? It spiked over $1300 and sold off and now it’s just sitting there. Is it going to fall more yet?

    1. Pedestrian

      Yes Sassy, gold is going to sell off more but don’t expect any action until Monday. Until then the chart will keep consolidating and behaving with indecision. The bulls in the crowd would like to believe gold is going to break out to the upside but technicals imply otherwise.

      The bulls ALWAYS want gold to break upward and live in denial most of the time.

      That is because they do a thing called hope-based investing mixed liberally with the attributes of a drunken gambler. No amount of effort can persuade them to see otherwise for they are fixed in their thinking and mostly irrational if not actually delusional.

      I often tell them to invert their charts to see a bullish case (Bugs read charts upside down)

      If you REALLY want to learn to trade gold with any success you will need to start by knowing that people who blog on the subject often have agendas or are deeply underwater on their past trades so you need to take care to discount their commentary if/when you discover they are trying to manipulate other readers.

      Secondly, dispense with almost all fundamental analysis such as gold demand from China, supply and demand, production numbers, the Indian wedding season, gold as either an inflation or deflation hedge and that sort of thing.

      The only methods that work consistently are technical approaches and knowing that you also need to branch out into reading currency, bond and related commodity charts. Gold does not trade in a vacuum. It is highly correlated at various times to other assets and the work of a technician is to monitor the changes to know where metals are going.

      Its not as hard as it sounds because for the most part you just skim the charts each day to see where the wind is blowing. If you can get through that then you will be a good candidate to trade mining stock and do it successfully.

      Now, you asked why gold was not moving and to answer that question you need only look at what is happening with the Yen which is inversely correlated to the Japanese Nikkei stock exchange. See my link below for an asset map of futures markets and you can get at a glance what’s happening everywhere at once. The Yen has a long record of correlating with gold. Where it goes tells us where gold is going.

      Next, check your “daily chart” of gold.

      What you will see is that its at the top of its range (has been on the rise for 6 weeks already and is due for a rest in other words). Under normal conditions gold should turn down cyclically for at least a month and in the process *could* take gold back to the 1200 dollar level.

      Likewise, the US dollar is at a low point having dropped for 8 months in a row.

      Every long period of decline ends eventually and this one will be no different. While there are no guarantees in the market, the odds and probabilities suggest we are ripe for the dollar to turn back up and since this usually is negative for gold we will have a strong confirmation the two assets will reverse course together.

      So the dollar should be negative for gold on the one hand and should the Nikkei index rise with global equity markets then the Yen will fall and create a second headwind for any further gold advance. Stocks themselves are indecisive though so we are not therefore seeing much action with metals which are usually seen as a safe haven trade during stock sell-offs.

      So the conclusion you will probably come to is that gold mining stock should also turn down. GDX however has broken to the upside though (depending on how one reads the charts) and so doubt is present for those holding mining stock about whether to hold on or sell. It is after all a stock and does not always go the way we expect over short time frames.

      There is also a lot of interest right now in a series of triangle patterns on the major gold miner ETF’s such as the HUI as one example and which way those triangles break will have a big impact on the success of your trades if your preference is to be long. If you are uncertain then it is a lot safer to just hold fire and wait as the decision is likely not that far off anymore.

      Personally I think they are going to break down.

      Quite of few people on this site think I am a moron though and are happy to repeat their argumentative commentary about me daily. Lucky for me most of the complainers are dimwits and retards who don’t know a technical from their own ass so I am not really worried about my conclusions.

      Does not mean I can’t be wrong of course.

      But the odds are heavily in favour of the bears right now.

      FINVIZ futures map is a handy way to quickly check your correlations each day.

      1. Sassybabe

        Thank you for all that information Pedestrian. From what you are saying, this may not be a good time to go long so I will wait and see.

        1. Pedestrian

          Yes Sassy. Waiting a few more days is a good idea.

          We are near an inflection point and the move could be decisive whichever direction comes. It’s always better to trade in the direction of the trend so once we know what that is with more certainty it will be a piece of cake to make trades that turn out right.

          And if I’m wrong; then go long.

    1. Spanky

      Would be crazy if this went all the way to the apex, which looks like it will be in September.

  65. Bigdaddy

    Well, isn’t this just a lovely god damm morning. Everything is going to shit in my bag of short positions. I am not caving in and covering. To hell with that. This stock market rally is a trap. Don’t fall for it people. Stay tuned.

    1. Sassybabe

      Bigdaddy, you seem to know what you are talking about. What are your thoughts on gold please?

      1. Bigdaddy

        TY for asking Sassy. If there is a sell off in gold, that will be the time to buy but it may never happen so maybe you might want to take a chance and buy something gold related and add to it if gold falls. There are a few guys here (besides me and Gary) to watch for clues.

  66. Steffmeister

    S&P500 … meeeeh I think it’s more or less game over for 2017! My original call, get out of stockmarkets in Q3 might not be such a bad call after all πŸ™‚ very lame response lately, if no upmove before early September then we are in for a rally to the downside imo.

    Only time will tell, and YES I’ve been long miners since early May, then again at summer solstice, again the 10th of July. Gary changed course a couple of weeks later when I presented the H&S pattern in the Dollar, followed by Christian, Ped, Spanky etc.

    Gold, do not worry, buy low sell high!

    A good post from 321Gold:

  67. victor

    Bought 2x HGU and HZU and sold it back with small profit. Whatever, let it go up. I better wait for retracement to 1260…. , but I got nice profit and it should double with HVI (inverse VIX)

  68. Goild

    Although anything can happen, the market is slow, kind of dead.
    I will close shop and see you tomorrow.
    Got +$102 bucks.
    Did not lose money. πŸ™‚
    Have good profit today.

    1. MegaMind

      Goild, what timeframe charts are you using for trading… 1min , 5min etc and also I am curious what indicators you use for buy and sell? you seem to making money everyday…

  69. butch

    I’ve been gold bull since 1255 and holding Dec 1300 call options since then. I’m forecasting 1385 in less than 3 weeks because of the triangle coil.. COT is also very bullish.

  70. Nada

    For those long miners. Remember, sideways price action counts towards correction in gold. Gold seems very bullish and it appears we are just working off time by the price action. Shallow ICL and maybe a even more shallow first daily cycle.

    1. Troy

      Good point Nada. I wanted to wait for Gary’s call for Gold’s DCL, but it may not be well defined at first. I may just start buying a little on every down day. I don’t want to miss this rally.

      1. Nada

        Its nice to have a small core for upside surprises, but following Hurt cycles, its been brought to my attention that Friday may house the DCL. I have a core long position with late Nov call options, but I am also playing Oct puts for a hedge if the DCL is more substantial.

        I will be looking to add to my Nov calls in GLD closer to this Friday.

    1. Nada

      I am long GLD etf call options. I sold my itm GDXJ position on Friday into the rally for profit and closed my otm money” calls yesterday for break even. GDXJ looks very bullish to me, but I did not like being in out of the money calls, even though they were late Nov calls. I already regret that action. I plan on adding back half position in GDXJ on Friday.

        1. Nada

          He is following cycles. Timing wise we should be hunting a daily cycle low. So nothing wrong with his DUST trade. The problem is the geopolitical environment and the stronger longer-term cycle that is in play. The move in gold now is counter-trend and that always presents a bigger risk. I doubt he is going HEAVY in his trade, but there is still money to be made. The best best is to wait for the swing low with a core long position, imo.

          We had a swing high print in gold, but to be honest I am not expecting the correction to be very deep. I would guestimate 1265-1270ish as the max.

          I have been seeing some folks on TV calling for 1205 and lower. They are totally dismissing that we printed and confirmed an ICL. Some folks are hell bent on the bear and are ignoring the charts/cycles. There are a few on TV that love to blow up accounts – tntsunrise is notorious for shorting gold and being on the wrong side and chartwatchers shorted gold all the way out of the ICL. Chartwatchers is typically a good guy to follow, but for some reason he is out for revenge trade on gold.

  71. Kruzoe

    Well, I managed to scalp $425 lunch money for 2 hours “work”. Thank you QQQ. Looking to add some cryptos to my wallet.

  72. Bigdaddy

    I feel naked without any gold or silver exposure ans silver is looking strong so i just bought 1000 USLV at 12.43. I might buy back into the HGU that i very wisely sold yesterday but not sure yet. Stay tuned.

    1. Bigdaddy

      Too many bullish or maybe we are all going to be winners. You forgot to put Pedestrian on as a maybe, depending on which way it goes.

      1. Pedestrian

        I am not even close to a maybe. I am a gold bear with teeth and intend to make the most of this next decline once the charts line up. We are delayed until Monday. Odds strongly favour a decline. If I am wrong however I am not going to get caught in the reversal.

  73. allthatglitters

    Gold going on what, almost 2 weeks now of hovering below $1300 Resistance, unable to even briefly surge through it. Kissed it for a nanosecond and immediately whimpered lower. And this is the moment everyone is preparing for the big liftoff?? Come on guys.

    1. Spanky

      You could say the same thing more or less about your short position too. We are coming to an apex in the metals and miners. Maybe you will be right, and maybe you won’t.

    2. Nada

      No we are just waiting for gold to hunt its daily cycle low – either by price or time. Then we back up the truck. The rockets are being fueled allthatglitters. Don’t miss out on a trip to the moon!

  74. allthatglitters

    Absolutely Spanky, I agree. Just remember Gary’s axiom that at major turning points the vast majority will always be on the wrong side of the trade.

    1. Spanky

      Pretty unusual MACD action on GDX/$hui.

      Let’s see, what upcoming event could shake the miners out of this malaise (up or down)? Hmmm.

  75. Lenapowich

    Gary has said there will be a buying opportunity for the miners after a correction. I will wait for that before getting back in.

  76. Kruzoe

    G: Put me at neutral, although I do have a slew of junior/senior miners for long term. I am looking to buy either Dust or Nugt any day, depending on my coin toss and my “gut feeling” (sorry BD).

  77. Goild

    How many are PM/miners long?
    1 Spanky
    2 Goild
    3 JJHarmen
    4 butch
    5 AT
    6 Nada
    7 BD
    8 Kruzoe !? -+
    9 …

    1. JJHarmen

      Hey Goild, your list is useful and far more interesting than the usual “made lunch money” routine. Maybe we should get you to do this everyday!

  78. JJHarmen

    This SM rally looks fishy to me. Most everyone was expecting it. I bought a couple hundred SQQQ @28.34. Let’s see what happens.

  79. Bigdaddy

    JJ, I am thinking the same thing. SQQQ came right down to my buy in point from a week ago. My gut feeling is that this rally is a bull trap for suckers who are buying the dip. I just put an order in for another 500 SQQQ at 28.36. Time to get serious abot what is coming.

    1. HomerJ

      BigDaddy, maybe it was a Bear Trap for suckers. A lot of large-lot call buying going on in equities today, i don’t want you to lose what little hair you got left on losing trades.

      1. Bigdaddy

        Homerj, I have had a string of winning trades and more are coming so knock it off with the negative vibes. What are you positions? I don’t recall you ever sticking your neck out.

      1. Gary Post author

        Shorting right in front of any kind of Fed event has been a very poor strategy for several years now.

        Generally fighting the Fed’s printing press has been a losing strategy.

        1. Bigdaddy

          Today was a shit day all the way around unless you were long the SM and who here was long? The QQQ is still below where it was a month ago as is the S&P so where’s the bubble?

          1. Gary Post author

            I’ve covered this before. The final vertical phase of a bubble tends to last 6-8 months. We are possibly just now finishing the correction that sets the market up for the vertical phase to begin. So it’s irrational to expect the bubble to begin and end in one day. This will be a multimonth process.

  80. palobar

    GOLD = I went short at close on the 21st of August
    WHEAT = Today we completed a full circle from the 2009 low. A reaction is pending and the more it is delayed the sharper it is going to be. A month-end close below the April low may put wheat in serious trouble.

    1. Bigdaddy

      Palobar, based on what you are saying , looks like Dboz and Pedestrian will be awarded the dunce hats soon. LOL!!!

  81. dboz

    Got whipsawed out of OIL again! Still able to hang onto GUSH. Still able to hang onto DUST. TVIX got beaten like a baby seal today. Sold TNA, too soon but never saw that huge end of day rally coming. Thought about LABD today but decided to hold off. Overall, this market is a real struggle for everyone right now. Whipsaws continue and I suspect will continue for some time. Probably bulls turn to get burned tomorrow. They have smashed volatility right back down into the sewer again. Too much too fast IMO. Everyone thinks we are OK now and back off to all time highs. Can it really be that easy? Miners could break out here but I am playing contrarian and holding DUST but not a big position. Still expect to see some sort of pullback here.

    Still have some WEAT but not really seeing much right now. May take time to build a base here. If we drop much more from here, I have to re-evaluate my position. Averaged in at 6.47 after another 1000. Last buy for now unless we start to turn up and make a significant move up. Just can’t see this going down forever. Of course we all know it can.

    1. Nada

      I have not seen that high of a GLD BOW in some time. My guess is someone knows the shit is about to hit the fan.

        1. Nada

          Either way works for me πŸ™‚ I would rather see gold continue down and form a DCL in the next few days vs moving up more and then back down later. Its never happens the way we want.

  82. Spanky

    Last time we saw the MACD this flat for this long in SIL was back in early January 2016, right before a very quick 20% plunge (many many longs coughed it all up on that move) and then the ensuing epic rally.

    Do we get a headfake this time? Will the headfake be a very sharp move up followed by a plunge (the opposite of 2016) or will the miners just ramp higher from here and never look back?

    Tune in this week and next to find out!


  83. dboz

    I kept waiting for the metals and miners for over a year to make another big push. Cost me a lot of money. If they are going to take off and gain 200-400+%, plenty of time to get on board. Of course it’s easier if you go old turkey and buy in now at the bottoms (if this is the bottom) and just let it ride and don’t worry about all the ups and downs that will come with that sort of gain. It really hard to buy and hold miners due to the volatility. That should calm down if/when we start trending. For now, still in wait and see mode but ready to move in either direction. I have totally changed my tune on the miners/metals in the last 4-5 months. Not giving up, just need them to SHOW me something instead of always hoping and feeling FOMO that led to bad decisions.

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