216 thoughts on “Challenge results

  1. Gary Post author

    I’m guessing the 2 day dip in the dollar will turn out to be the half cycle low.

    The yen is again trying to close below the intermediate trend line today. Of course we’ll have to see how the day ends.

      1. Pedestrian

        Dollar topped at 93.49 on hourly level chart and should reverse back down from here sending gold back up. I don’t think the dollar has finished its bottoming process so quickly or that it will instantly resume its bull market without a consolidation here.

  2. Nada

    “JJHarmen
    October 1, 2017 at 1:47 pm
    After being slapped down by Nada and Pedestrian about the my assertion that continuous futures contract charts should not be used for charting (when spot is available)”

    Once again you are incorrect. I never said anything about using spot or futures charts – I use both. What I did say was you had no idea what you were talking about when you stated spot gold was traded 24hrs a day, everyday.

    So maybe pay attention and stop posting false information with conviction.

    1. JJHarmen

      Nada: I was not referring to the weekends and most Forex products are traded 24 hours a day with the exception of gold and sliver which take a one hour break. . Okay, I got that wrong on gold and silver. Is it such a big deal? Pleases forgive my mistake. You could have politely pointed that out instead of being your usual rude and miserable self.
      From Forex.com:

      Forex Market Hours
      Forex Trading is available 24 hours a day from 5:00pm ET Sunday through 5:00pm ET on Friday, including most U.S. holidays. Please be advised of the potential for illiquid market conditions particularly at the open of the trading week. These conditions may result in wider spreads for some currency pairs based on market liquidity.

      Spot Gold and Silver Market Hours
      Spot gold and silver trading is available 23 hours a day from 6pm ET Sunday through 5pm ET Friday. Trading is closed from 5pm to 6pm ET daily. Spot gold and silver trading also follow CME holiday closures.

      1. Nada

        Keep running your mouth JJ, it’s what you do best. The matter was over, but nl.. you had to start shit over the weekend;

        “After being slapped down by Nada and Pedestrian about the my assertion that continuous futures contract charts should not be used for charting (when spot is available)”

        Please copy and paste where I slapped down your assertions that futures should not be used in charting. Having trouble finding where I said that JJ? of course you are, because it never happened.

        I am awaiting patiently for your apology.

      2. Nada

        “You could have politely pointed that out instead of being your usual rude and miserable self.”

        Nada
        September 29, 2017 at 2:07 pm
        No, spot gold is not traded 24 hours. It closes for 1 hr just like futures.

        Now JJ, please tell me how my statement above was rude? Seems to me you owe me yet anothet apology.

  3. Goild

    Looking at charts I do not find any hope for gold in the near future for October.
    Looking at recent Septembers/Octobers I do not find hope either.
    Silver doe not give hope too.
    Then the preferred trade should be shorting.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’ve been trying to warn people that breaking back below 1300 was a bad sign. It’s the same thing that happened last year when gold broke back below 1275. These resistance levels that take a lot of tries to break through should act as support. When they don’t it usually results in a hard move down.

      And the dollar cycle is still young.

      So many traders are trying to pick a bottom here but I think this cycle is going to surprise everyone with how long it runs. Gold had an opportunity to rally when the yen first tagged its intermediate uptrend line. When that failed to trigger a bounce it was the signal to get out of the way.

        1. Christian

          Because Gold is stuck in a basing pattern Nada. It’s an extended consolidation of sorts that’s meant to confuse and push people to question the legitimacy of the Bull.

          And despite what some on here may (stubbornly I might add) think.. if we were still stuck in a bear market, we would’ve already revisited and probably broken the 2015 lows, and we certainly wouldn’t be trading above the 200DMA, which means that..

          Current market behaviour is frustrating but nevertheless CONSTRUCTIVE, and that’s all that matters.

          1. Pedestrian

            Not good points Nada. There is a cycle to gold that runs roughly 8 years and can often correspond to the presidential cycle. The last gold bull cycle ran for an extended period of time however clocking in at almost 10 years before silver went parabolic and burst.

            So the cycle following would naturally not occur on the presidential election cycle but should have been expected to run longer. Indeed we are currently only 6 years and 2 months into the bear cycle and it will run longer before its done.

            This is particularly so because the dollar is about to embark on a resumption of its bull market and pressure god for another entire cycle of its own which could easily last for 10 months or more.

            Christian does not offer any facts or evidence to contradict what I have been reporting all along. His opinion has little merit and amounts to nothing more than a cloud of words to confuse a subject that should be easy to understand.

            My suggestion to anyone reading this conversation is to research the 8 year gold cycle and see for yourselves that one does indeed exist and then we can leave idle conjecture and small talk where it belongs in the boneyard of dead end conversations that go nowhere.

          2. Christian

            No offence Pedestrian, but the reason I don’t offer any evidence to contradict what you’ve been saying is because it would be completely wasted on you.

            Case in point…

            Gary [who knows a hell of a lot more about cycles than you do] has over the past several months provided indisputable evidence and you just kept yammering on and on and on because that’s what you do.

            My friend, I’m not dumb enough to do the same because you’re not worth my time — sorry πŸ™‚

          3. Pedestrian

            Gary has not offered indisputable evidence. He has put forward an opinion which also included that the dollar was going to crash and burn. And he was wrong. There are no Gurus, Christian. Some people are just better observers and market historians than others. I suggest you study gold in more depth.

      1. Christian

        I’m actually tempted to pick up some DUST today.. No doubt it’ll open with a gap up but if it re-tests support and fills the gap then I might grab a few shares πŸ™‚

  4. Goild

    Good morning,

    Added 177 JNUG shares at $17.48 for a total of 500 JNUG shares.
    Yes, I would not be surprised if JNUG dives to $14 – $15.
    Gold may hit $1260 by Wednesday.
    I see myself with at least 5K JNUG shares in the next leg up.
    It may take to early in the Spring, but I need to make $25K – $50K on automatic money.
    Have a plan, execute it, and share it.

  5. Goild

    Good morning Nada,

    The Moon, I know controls the mood of women, and since women control men, and men control the price of gold, then there is a link to the influence of the Moon on Gold.

  6. Gary Post author

    Too many people are trying to pick a bottom in gold based on what they want it to do.

    I think you need to focus on the currency cycles. Consider how long an intermediate rally in the dollar could or should be. Even if it’s going to be a left translated intermediate cycle you know they will rally for 6-8 weeks.

    Intermediate sentiment in gold is neutral.

    Until the dollar and euro get into the timing band to finish their counter trend moves and until gold sentiment reaches bearish levels it’s too early to pick a more lasting bottom.

    This is the short cycle scenario playing out that I warned everyone about.

    1. Gary Post author

      We’re in the period where traders are grasping at every intraday uptick as the possible cycle low. Price needs to drop far enough that traders give up and sell for the loss because they start to panic that a turn isn’t going to come. Once that happens then we’ll get our minor daily cycle low. But we will still need one more daily cycle lower before the final ICL is complete.

        1. Gary Post author

          Usually we need some kind of panic. The five day RSI is just barely oversold. In the declining phase of an intermediate cycle RSI tends to stay oversold for extended periods.

          We’re getting there though as evidenced by your post. You were expecting price to turn back up a long time ago and now you are starting to question your decision. We need a lot of bulls to feel what you are feeling. Once they do and many panic and sell then we will have a short term bottom.

          1. Spanky

            Nah, at this point I am prepared for literally anything. If it breaks below $1200, so be it.

            It would have to break the 2016 low for me to really question anything, And even then you have the rising 200 month MA at $929, which has always been a possible long term target. Let the GDX head back to the mid to low teens in the near term for all I care. More of the same…

  7. Goild

    I was reading yesterday an article in Investin.com where the ratio SPY/VIX was mentioned.
    In looking at the chart the cycling is notorious.
    Right now is perhaps 1/4 of a cycle into the upside.
    Thus I would not short the SM, or QQQ, or LABU, or get into UVXY right now, it is suicidal.
    But one can consider a quick scalp at the cycle peak.

  8. Gary Post author

    Oil is giving us the expected pullback into the half cycle low.

    We sold our leverage two days ago at almost the exact top in preparation for this.

  9. Goild

    Yes, Gary you are prudent, and GOLD can go to $1200. The scenario is nothing exciting for gold right now.
    But picking a bottom is probably not a correct strategy, and you have mentioned this before, there is no way to predict a next bottom.

    A way to do it to pyramid to reduce risk. One has to start at some point.
    And also, putting at once a lot of money into a security is probably not a good path as risk increases, and ruin is not an option.
    Depending on individual, there are different ways to get in. For me, getting engaged with a few shares is a psychological maneuver to make me put a lot of shares later at some point.
    Though I am often early to the party. And early to leave it.

    1. Gary Post author

      Most of the time I can avoid much of the drawdowns by waiting until sentiment reaches excessively bearish levels. Sometimes it doesn’t work and price just keeps dropping (the recent energy trade).

      But more often than not one is better off starting their pyramid once intermediate sentiment turns bearish. As of Friday gold was dead neutral at 46% bulls. I’d like to see it at 30 or even 25% bulls before I start buying.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m showing GBTC is at $712 and nowhere even vaguely close to making a new high. In fact it’s still down 32% from the highs.

      So I have no clue what you are talking about.

      1. felix115

        You should have instead…. GBTC it’s not BTC….
        Btc did the top price at 4870$ the 09/01. And at today price it’ s only 8,6% away from the top (not 30%….)
        Prepare your self for the next stop at 7.000$
        I’m sure that there, you will change your view about this Big bubble…. It’s Not! :-)))

  10. AT

    Doubled down my JNUG position – added another 100% position at 17.90 … Good luck to me!

    Sep 26 BUY 50% JNUG 18.83
    Sep 26 BUY 50% JNUG 19.07
    Sep 26 sold 50% DUST 24.16
    Sep 25 buy 50% DUST 23.45
    Sep 22 SOLD 50% JNUG 19.25
    Sep 21, BUY 50% JNUG 18.41
    Sep 18 – sold 100% DUST 23.45
    Aug 31 – buy 50% DUST 21.80
    Aug 28 – buy 50% DUST 23.06
    Aug 24 – sold 50% JNUG 18.89
    Aug 22 – buy 50% JNUG 18.27
    Aug 18 sold 100% JNUG 18.80
    Aug 2 buy 50% JNUG 18.20
    Jul 31 buy 50% JNUG 18.59
    Jul 28 sold 100% JNUG 18.69
    Jul 27 buy 50% JNUG 17.61
    Jul 27 buy 50% JNUG 17.98
    Jul 24 sold 100% DUST 30.95
    Jul 18 buy 50% DUST 30.19

  11. victor

    Alex,
    Not sure if you’r still following the blog. You see where the market now, It would be interesting if you share your conclusions about “great scorch” prediction” It would be very valuable experience for all of us. You’re very intelligent man, what sources/indicators made you to go on wrong direction ? Would you share what we should avoid? Thank you.

    1. Nada

      The “Great Scorch” is one of many wrong conclusions. Alex has a history of saying a bunch of shit with GREAT conviction – like his last currencies predictions where it was “impossible” for UJ to go above 111. When the trade goes against him (90% of the time) he disappears, waits for time to pass, pops up and makes new prediction and repeats process.

      He has a long history on the blog and a even longer history of being incorrect, so please don’t stroke his ego with comments like “You’re very intelligent man”!

    1. Nada

      Yes, he went on day after day trying to call a top. I think his first short was Nov 8th and he tried for about 4 months and then finally disappeared. He kept chanting that defensives like utilities were under huge accumulation and that the market was HUGE distribution, LOL.

    1. Pedestrian

      Very subjective on the second low. I beg to disagree (strongly) since the dollar will rally for months now and by default gold will fall back. By the time we get to the *real* eight year cycle low you are going to owe me a truckload of Burritos for all the times you insisted but were wrong. This is waaay too early. Only 6 years into the cycle does not make any sense at all that we have already arrived.

      1. Nada

        “I beg to disagree (strongly) since the dollar will rally for months now and by default gold will fall back. ”

        Making sure I am following. This is mid-term view? As from the weekend I thought you were seeing short term new yearly high in gold, followed by record COTs short and then a move into ICL.

        1. Pedestrian

          Correct. I still think gold will rise to at least the 2016 gold high before falling for many months as the dollar resumes its bull market. It may even exceed 1368 and run as high as 1400 before the dive although that is less certain.

      2. Gary Post author

        Gold is two years into a new 8 year cycle not six.

        There’s nothing subjective at all about that 8 YCL. That is the point at which the trend in gold changed and the YCL’s began a new pattern of higher highs.

          1. Gary Post author

            Gold is stuck in a basing pattern. Probably a triangle. We won’t get a higher high until the dollar confirms the new bear market by producing a lower YCL.

            That will come in a few months once the current counter trend move exhausts and the dollar starts back down.

            You need to understand translation. If you did you would see why the euro has begun a new cyclical bull market and the dollar a bear.

          2. Pedestrian

            Gary, you change your mind like the wind. What ever happened to “gold is in a new bull market”? Now your new tune is that gold is in a “basing pattern”. Are you even vaguely aware that calling this a basing pattern is an acknowledgement that I have been correct all along and the bear never ended?

            Secondly, the euro has most definitely not started a new bull market. All we have on the euro is a multi-month bear flag that is finally rolling over and forming an obvious top before its next decline.

          3. Gary Post author

            I’ve been saying for months now that gold is stuck in a basing pattern and likely will be until the bubble in the stock market pops.

            A basing pattern isn’t a bear market. It’s a launching pad for a bull market.

          4. Pedestrian

            A basing pattern is not a bull market either.
            A launching pad is not a rocket in flight.

            So you are agreeing we have not yet entered a new gold bull.

            Thanks you for the clarification.

          5. Pedestrian

            I see. So then this is not a basing pattern. Gold is already a rocket in flight and the launch pad is far below. Totally contradictory statements. You need to make up your mind. Either we are in a basing pattern or we are in a new gold bull but not both.

            (Both are wrong btw. This is clearly a bear market in gold)

          6. Gary Post author

            Now you are just trying to be obtuse and argumentative.

            I think everyone understands.

            The bottom is in.

            Gold is basing in preparation for a much bigger move higher.

            Unless gold drops back below 1050 it’s in a new bull market.

          1. Pedestrian

            I am curious why you spend so much of your time attacking other people on the site. Your latest victim is Goild since he does not fight back. You are not fit to run this site if Gary ever gives it up since you are too ignorant of the market and far too personal with your daily comments to everyone.

          2. Christian

            GARY β€” Ped just wants to be right. Let him be πŸ™‚

            ** Folks, in case you hadn’t noticed.. This is someone that desperately needs and wants to contradict. It fuels his ego and it’s pathological.

          3. Christian

            As far as Goild is concerned and in case you hadn’t noticed.. I’m not the only one calling him on it. Nice try though.

    1. Nada

      Israel reported quickly that the shooter was an islamic convert. Now the wire is reporting that ISIS is claiming Stephen Paddock was one of their soldiers.

  12. Gary Post author

    Just like I warned traders are jumping on every intraday uptick as the bottom and then by the end of the day they get caught as the trend continues.

    I’ve found it’s usually best to wait till the end of the day before trying to second guess a cycle low. The banksters love to fleece gold bugs by creating an early morning rally and then pulling the rug out from under them by the close.

  13. Nada

    @Goild What happened to being the ant? I thought you were shooting for the 25-50k swing?

    ” I need to make $25K – $50K on automatic money.
    Have a plan, execute it, and share it.”

  14. victor

    Nada,
    sure, intelligent man doesn’t mean a good trader. A few years ago I visited acupuncture specialist and introduced to PhD mathematician who said his story when he developed a market trading formulas that he was sure bring him a money, he lost a lot eventually and said math doesn’t work here. Remember him because he strongly advised me to quit trading …

  15. Goild

    Nada,

    The 500 JNUG shares are in the swing account.
    And the ANT will continue putting money in the day trading account.
    I need to be paid for more time here daily.
    Good and wise trading to all.

      1. Nada

        You have any recent articles on this? I had a site that tracked the US Fleet, but I seem to have misplaced.

        I thought it was rather interesting that Trump took the time this weekend to make a tweet about the rocket man, that talk was useless – about the same time, AP was reporting that the US and NK had direct communication channels.

  16. Goild

    AT,

    In part what made me decide to get into a swing JNUG trade is that JNUG hit $26.
    I see that JNUG $26 will be a repeat.
    About $8 bucks up from now.
    That is $8K for every 1K shares.

    1. AT

      Excellent!

      This 17.90 JNUG trade cannot be part of the challenge because I was already 100% JNUG at 18.90 avg.

      However, it is one of my real time trade today, and hopefully will turn a profit soon.
      My horizon for JNUG trade is around 21 – 22, not sure if I can hold higher when and if will jump there.

  17. Nada

    Gun stocks received a nice pop today. The liberals will be renewing their attack on the 2nd amendment in a timely fashion. I see the biggest loser of our time – aka Hillary Clinton is already attacking the NRA this morning.

  18. Goild

    Nadal and Federer swing their rackets so many times.
    Many times in a minute and each swing might be work $1000s.
    If you will this is ping-pong trading.
    Perhaps fencing with bulls and bears; no, with the dam rats and manipulators.
    It is fun, challenging and keeps your brain sharp.

  19. Gary Post author

    That 6000 level is proving to be a tough nut to crack.

    Once it breaks though I think we could see a move similar to what just occurred in the Russell.

    1. Nada

      So far, a nice pin bar is developing on the daily – SPX and /NQ. It will be interesting if SPX closes back inside the channel.

      and Yes, one can safely assume the pin bar does not mean jack and we will be at 2600 by weeks end πŸ™‚

  20. Roy Batty

    Gary,
    Below is my message from yesterday. I don’t know why you insist on me using GBTC when you can easily verify BTC price on GDAX. GBTC has crazy and volatile premiums over the underlying bitcoin price.

    https://www.gdax.com/trade/BTC-USD

    Roy Batty
    October 1, 2017 at 1:34 pm
    Gary,

    Please put me down, in your paper competition, for 100% of portfolio in BTC @ $4,319.61. Just for giggles….and possibly a burrito.

      1. Roy Batty

        Yes…there are people making multigenerational fortunes on these crypto assets. The volatility gives the potential for sick profits/losses. People who don’t know much, new interest, think this recent price drop was out of the ordinary. Not so:

        June 2016: 41% dip
        Jan 2017: 37% dip
        Mar: 31% dip
        May: 33% dip
        Jun: 39% dip
        Aug: 20% dip
        Sep: 37% dip

        Not that uncommon actually. Up 300% since beginning of the year. Up 200% in the last two and a half months. Up 50% in the last two weeks, since “the bubble has popped”.

          1. AT

            I wouldn’t go back in ERX now, it is up too much; I was happy to get out from that trade with a small profit;

          2. Gary Post author

            Maybe, maybe not.

            I’m always leery of these reversals. The fad for the last couple of years has been for reversals to reverse the next day. I’d give it at least one more day and see what happens tomorrow or even better what happens on Wednesday.

    1. Christian

      Try google πŸ™‚ No disrespect intended but if you’re smart and sharp enough to trade like you do then this should be a walk in the park for you.

  21. AT

    all gold headlines negative, everybody thinking Gold only can go down … which usually means we are at the bottom or close to, and Gold will reverse soon …

    1. Bluebellkid

      “Please keep snide remarks to yourself” If you are going to make comments about buying something based upon “I think it is time to buy” then do expect “snide remarks”. Really!!

  22. Americano

    Guys –
    Don’t use GBTC as challenge bet. It’s 80 some % higher than Bitcoin & I expect that to get weaned in October due to LedgerX starting options ( physically secured) in Chicago this month.
    Some big institutional players in GBTC will undoubtedly go over to that because uhhh….. Bitcoin can be had at what it actually costs!
    I see GBTC getting torn big time as options come available. Also if you own Bitcoin now you get the same amount of new coin “Bitgold” Oct 25th.
    Snicker if ya want but I got $400 per each Bitcoin held Aug 1st when “Bitcoin Cash” lol was issued. Still haven’t sold it yet – it was $800 I think!

  23. Lenapowich

    Bigdaddy, I am sure you are watching. When are you going to rejoin us? I always enjoyed your style and humor. Pedestrian has been quite civilized lately, if that makes any difference.

  24. zkotpen

    Pedestrian is not being argumentative. He’s trying to state a point, which is, gold is in a bear market rally, at the so-called “3 year” cycle degree (“3 year”, like “half cycle”, is inaccurate, but a commonly used, classic term).

    Pedestrian is predicting that gold is in a bear market rally. He has been predicting the next move down in the bear market of larger degree will commence in short order.

    Gary tracks 6 fractal cycle degrees, and names them using classic nomenclature:

    8 year; 3 year; yearly; intermediate; daily; and half cycles.

    Pedestrian is saying gold’s so-called 8 year cycle is in a bear market, undergoing a consolidation rally at 3 year cycle degree, which will eventually break down after that consolidation completes.

    Gary is saying that the so-called 8 year cycle is in a bull market, and any action at cycle degrees below that is building steam toward the next bullish impulse move at 8 year degree.

  25. victor

    Althugh Gary said in one video “after 2500 on will be grinding higher day by day, possibly no pullbacks” (sorry if I remember slightly incorrect) I was sure I will buy more inverted VIX on pullbacks, but there’s non. So, with lots of cash and only 8k in VIX, up almost 10%, I feel like I miss the boat….

  26. Strike2

    The Gary-Pedestrian disagreement of gold’s future is clear as a bell. No need for arguments to justify, reason, or interpret their positions. Ped says first up to 1368-1400ish, then down into 2018 to maybe 1100ish.
    Gary says we are heading into an ICL in ~ 4 to 6 weeks to somewhere near the July low (I believe he thinks 1204 will hold, but not necessarily), then a big move up to maybe the 1400 area or higher.
    Since they are the exact inverse of each other, I think it will be obvious who turns out to be correct.

    1. Pedestrian

      Naturally I will be right πŸ™‚

      The thing is, I don’t know why anyone would really be surprised that gold is still within its bear market given that the stock markets in the US have almost hit a record for the length of their bull. If the indices are stretched well beyond what is considered a more normal 7 to 8 yer cycle then it just makes objective sense that commodities would still remain depressed.

      And then there is the dollar which turned bull after a large double-bottom completed between 2008 and 2011 so that is also acting as a headwind to gold and other resources. Here it is on a monthly chart clearly showing it gathered strength the same year gold topped.
      https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=m1

      We cannot ignore these things when looking across markets because they are all connected. For Gary to argue that stock markets are about to rise dramatically and that simultaneously gold is already in a new bull market is contradictory given the last years patterns.

      What makes far more sense is that USD will rise with stocks while commodities will continue to languish until the equity and dollar cycles have ended. We are just living in a different time and money will flow into the US as troubles in Europe increase which will be supportive of both dollars and equities.

      As long as the dollar/gold correlation holds we will see the bear market in precious metals continue with an unknown destination at lower prices. I have long thought that could take us to the middle 900’s in a worst case scenario but others have proposed even lower prices in the 800’s so I am not entirely alone in this thinking.

  27. palobar

    The $1280 support has been smashed. Why?:
    ”…The important dates for September are behind us which means that any swing points here will be most likely temporary…”

  28. Spanky

    Bring on sub-$1200 gold.

    The lower monthly BB for GLD is basically at 111 and rising slightly. It’s a legit target as far as I am concerned over the next couple of months. That would see us sub $1200.

    First, we will probably bounce here on or around the unemployment report (may have to wait until next week) and then start the run down again.

    Get short and long term sentiment on the metals to zero, and the commercials net long for all I care at this point.

  29. jake

    AU was parked on its median downtrend line all day. Which happens to be the Aug 15 – 16 th support.
    Just like July 6-7, job numbers coming out on Thursday.

    1. Gary Post author

      Three weeks ago you told me I was buying at the top of the stock market cycle and I should buy metals even though they had rallied hard for 2 months.

      Stocks at that time were completing an ICL and starting their vertical phase. Gold was putting in an intermediate top. It would have been better if you had listened to me.

      You still have plenty of time to get in before the vertical phase really takes off. The NDX hasn’t even broken through resistance at 6000 yet.

      Or you can do what most traders will do. They will keep trying to fight it for months calling top after top until most of the vertical phase has passed them by. Then they will capitulate and enter very close to the end.

      Any down days should be used as entry points.

      1. palobar

        Read more carefully. The message is clear. I wrote ”,” not ”-”. I explained that to you a few days ago. In my work the 10th and the 20th of October (+/- 2 days) are very important. Gold can make a low or a top before or after the above dates. However, if it makes a low or a high on those dates you have much more chances to make a better trade. The 10th is not far away. The 20th of October is much stronger. Keep in mind that the Dollar made a major low on the 8th of September. It should move much higher.

    1. Gary Post author

      The Canadian dollar has absolutely no bearing on what oil does.

      It’s just forming a correction while the dollar gives us the long overdue counter trend bounce.

      Oil is going to $60 before this intermediate cycle tops.

      Do I need to remind you that you tried to call the top in energy stocks many many percentage points lower?

      I would advise you to quit trying to call tops. It’s mostly just a sure fire way to go broke.

      BTW the Canadian dollar is making higher highs and higher lows of yearly degree. Gold will be too once it finishes basing.

      1. jacob2

        Lot of promising charts in both gold and oil. Nice long bases. Could get a back off in oil here but no sweat. Many of the sells in big cap tech will be heading to this value end of the market. Sector rotation is alive and well. Unless we’re heading into a global recession NOT, they will all break UP not down. Biased, own lots of oil and industrial metal stocks, looking at the PM’s. Buy and hold it’s a bull.

      2. Pedestrian

        “The Canadian dollar has absolutely no bearing on what oil does”. — Gary
        ——————-

        Whatever you say Gary. Why not look at a long term correlation chart of CAD and Crude Oil first though before coming to a conclusion. They typically correlate at .75 to .80. so its pretty tight. About oil topping; I am only early but I am not going to be wrong. Almost all commodities will fall as the USD rises and in particular oil as it trades inverse to USD. Expect a retest of the lows eventually.

        Crude Oil and Forex Market Correlation USD/CAD
        http://www.forexexperts.net/index.php/trade-strategy/forex-correlations/oil-usdcad-correlation

    1. Spanky

      No doubt we can get a bounce, maybe a significant one, any day now.

      Whoop dee do. The damage has been done IMO. Any bounce will be faded hard as gold, at best consolidates around the 20 WMA.

      I’ll admit, if $gold closes below the 50 and 200 WMAs, I will be a bit surprised. I mean, at what point will the MA’s mean anything as far as support? It is certainly frustrating, but par for the course.

      Being the pessimist that I am, the miners will probably have to drop big before a reversal, just like in January 2016 (if this is really still a bull), where the miners got absolutely hammered for 2 weeks for no reason whatsoever, before miraculously reversing before a 7 months moon shot. I hate this sector, lol.

  30. zkotpen

    Pedestrian,

    Good point on the loonie. I also noticed the — what do you call it? Bearish flag? at yearly degree. At any rate, it looks a lot like an ABC corrective pattern, where the B wave down (bear trap) is very long in duration, and waves A & C nearly equal.

  31. zkotpen

    Funny thing, after a little cat nap, I suddenly realize: I never liked the “8 year” and “3 year” cycles that much.

    The latter is wonky, because it’s an intermediary cycle — even Gary has admitted in some videos, these are hard to pin down — certainly cannot be pinned to something so arbitrary as “3 years”.

    As for the latter, now it’s occurring to me that gold’s 2008 low was at a different degree than what’s coming. Wave 4 bottom of gold’s bull run in the 2000s. It’s the same degree as 2001, which was wave 2 low. But one degree higher than 1999. Same degree as the 2015 low, and one degree lower than what Pedestrian and I believe will be the “final” bear market low. This so called “final bear market low” will be at the same degree as 1999. One degree higher than the so-called 8 year cycle.

    So maybe I am OK with the “8 year” cycle — just don’t like the name of it, which is inaccurate and/or arbitrary. Just like those vexatious trendlines — they tend to restrain perception.

    2001 – 2008 – 2015 hmmm. And even 1999. And the forthcoming low.

    675-725 area would bring gold more in line with inflation.

    1. Gary Post author

      Gold doesn’t have a 3 year cycle. I’m not sure where you got that.

      The CRB has a 3 year cycle.

      Gold’s multi-year cycle is an 8 year cycle.

      They are different animals with different cycles. Gold has a currency component that other commodities do not.

  32. roadrunner

    @nada…..nice BOW for Gld. GLD up over $1.00 in after hours for whatever that is worth. might be a bounce tomorrow. maybe a DCL and we follow the path gary laid out, with a failed cycle to come and an ICL maybe around the 20th. thatwould coincide with palobar turn dates.

    1. Spanky

      This is the most anticipated pump and dump in gold ever. Longs will be unloading into the bounce/new shorts will pile on.

      The weekly chart is neutral. At best gold tries to hang around the 20 WMA. Otherwise, the 50 and 200 WMAs are targets, as is the lower bollinger band.

      Can’t see gold just staying flat if the stock market makes a moonshot over the next 6-8 months. Would figure the yen is going to break down hard on a moonshot in the SM. Gold isn’t going to like that.

      1. Pedestrian

        You got it exactly right Spanky.

        How does anyone explain away the fact that when the Nikkei rises that yen/$ falls and so does gold? So if the developed economy stock markets (including those in Japan) are going to soar vertically then it means by default that gold is about to get Monkey-hammered back into the stone age until its all over.

        Teeth Smashed out in Buffalo Jump.
        It has too if gold keeps following the established yen/$ correlation.

        As an aside, since gold is about to see a month long (or more) bounce starting just about anytime now then it also warns us that October will indeed see some kind of correction in the indices. It does not appear it will be that serious though given golds run back up to the prior highs is only going to be temporary before coming back down hard like a sack of hammers.

        My advice if I was asked (which I am not being asked btw) is to get the hell out of metals once gold hits its next top. We will know the next top because it will match the recent highs and exceed them on its way to 1368 or higher and as the COTs also match their extremes last seen in 2016.

        The gold community will be going bonkers and getting hot and heavy all over the wrong side of the boat. We will see sentiment arrive at bullish extremes of overbought and over-loved. And that’s when you better run like hell and put your money back into the regular stock market for the ride up as gold sinks into a depressing funk for many, many months.

        Gold will get its face smashed in the pavement one more time folks. This is for real.

        The final leg down. And it starts this year.

        1. Gary Post author

          This one is easy to answer.

          The yen is in a counter trend corrective move the opposite of the counter trend bounce in the dollar.

          The intermediate cycle in the yen was also right translated just like the euro. So the yen won’t be making new lows and you will find to your chagrin that correlations usually break at some point.

          The correlation between the Nikkei and the yen will break. The Nikkei will continue to follow the global stock markets higher even with the yen rallying. It has done it many times in the past.

  33. zkotpen

    I am strongly considering publishing some notes from my research, the part on cycle theory.

    More math- and science-based cycles, with more accurate names and key observations.

    This is not the revolutionary stuff, but it is a significant development in cycle theory, to bring it into the 21st century.

      1. jake

        “This is not the revolutionary stuff, but it is a significant development in cycle theory, to bring it into the 21st century.”

        Grandiose delusions.

    1. Gary Post author

      I can tell you from experience that you are never going to be able to model in mathematical system that will work in all situations. And it is fruitless to waste your energy trying. Markets change. The most successful traders are the ones that can adapt the quickest during a transition

    1. jake

      I’d like to know why he believes the accumulation phase is over and AU is about to enter the mark up phase, he doesn’t give any explanation how he comes to that opinion. Gold is still moving within its trading range.

      1. Pedestrian

        He is completely wrong. Most analysts don’t know squat about gold. I swear they just make stuff up as they go along to keep subscribers interested. Imagine instead if he wrote the truth (as I am doing). The subscriber bugs would flee in droves because most of them don’t want bad news about their little precious golden trinket. They just want to have their hands held and be told what they already believe. Like 6 year olds about to get a tooth extracted for the first time.

        It’s OK baby. It wont hurt a bit. Mommy promises!

      2. Christian

        His analysis is purely based on market behaviour, cycles, and a plethora of technical tools.. and although Gary’s analysis and overall market perspective are a lot more astute; AG has made some good calls in the past, including when the Miners took their fall from grace.

          1. Pedestrian

            Everyone gets a few lucky calls. I don’t give credit for that since even Monkeys can pick stocks with darts and a dartboard.

  34. zkotpen

    Gary,

    I know you like to cite history.

    Think about the history of all the traditional people who have fought against innovation over the centuries and even millennia.

    Even today, the world has not fully embraced the Copernican Revolution from the 15th century. How many times in Latin America have I heard somebody refer to their hometown as “el umbligo del mundo”?? And they are not speaking figuratively.

    The thinking in “The King and I” prevails to this day.
    That movie is still banned in Thailand!!!

    … yes, I’m referring to the scene where Anna teaches the children the map of the modern world, at the same time politely, but categorically rejecting the traditional map, in which Thailand is super-sized.

  35. Goild

    I went and tried imgur to upload a screenshot. But I did not like their terms and privacy agreements. By signing in you allow those rats to peek into your computer and get your information indefinitely.
    I found another place. The screenshot is at:

    https://ibb.co/eYNyFb

    Now you can see my trading station screen.
    Today’s day trading profit is $591.93 plus whatever I made on the 500 JNUG shares in the swing account.

  36. primetime

    Now all the parasites that were harassing the good man Goild all day should show their screen shots. Just ridiculous to hound him like that. Goild, you are just too nice, but I respect your tolerance of idiocy.

    1. Christian

      Idiocy?

      C’mon now.. It just seemed a little exaggerated that someone just starting out would be making that kinda money everyday of every week trading a triple leverage, eventually someone was gonna have to call bullsh*t!!

      Don’t be so sour Primetime! Goild just gained a touch more credibility and that’s good all around.

      Man, I miss your warm fuzzy smile:) How you been..?

  37. Goild

    primetime,

    Thank you.

    We as traders should be champions of reality, our profit depends on how we perceive reality, if we are wrong and stubborn we lose.

    The other point is credibility, here in the US credibility is very relevant, I needed to stand for what I posted.

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