177 thoughts on “GOLD DAILY CYCLE LOW

  1. Gary Post author

    Right after posting this video I got to wondering if gold is forming a bear flag and we still have one more drop to the 1250-1260 level after the jobs report tomorrow before the final DCL is complete.

  2. Bv

    Gary, you’ve gone gone through the whole of the video discussing higher lows but failed to mention even once about gold making higher highs, which previously along with yearly higher lows, was your definition of a bull market – NOT just higher lows. Therefore, if gold is still in a bull market and the cycle low is going to come sometime in November, then there must be one hell of a rally in a relatively short space of time for gold to go higher than the 2016 high otherwise we cannot still be in a bull market?

    1. Christian

      I don’t know why people need to continually defy ‘common sense’.. GOLD’s price action is clearly CONSTRUCTIVE, meaning it’s not at all exhibiting signs of a bear market, and yet people continue to question.

      Anyone with any basic technical knowledge – or a 5 year old – can see that Gold is trading well above the 200 Daily AND Weekly average and gradually moving up.

      GOLD is clearly stuck in a consolidation pattern and when it breaks out and UP; it’s gonna hurt like a bitch, in the best way possible πŸ™‚

  3. Goild

    Yes, it looks like there is no bounce to $1300.
    The reason is that the peak in September is an artifact from the NK stuff.
    If we erase all days after August 8th, which is the NK reversal day, then one can says that GOLD will continue with the downtrend trend at that time.

    And I think the dollar has partial influence here. The decisive factor is $UST2Y, the bond yield.
    Right now SM and GOLD are at a critical moment. SM might decrease to tag the daily averages, and GOLD is thinking whether to reverse or continue, but likely to continue down, as likely the bond yield will go up.

      1. JJHarmen

        Nada. you are this sites defacto cop. nailing anyone with a perceived inconsistency. You must be marking down the details of every poster, their positions , price. where they live, whatever they reveal, for later ammunition in your daily quest to criticize. The only one you rarely attack is Pedestrian. What is up with that?

        1. Gary Post author

          I started the challenge so everyone could earn credibility.

          Since it only takes a minute to email me trades, it costs nothing to enter, and there is a nice cash prize, I assume anyone not in the challenge has something to hide.

          If anyone wants to be taken seriously then enter the contest.

          1. Nada

            Of course that was directed at my good friend JJ and not you Gary. Point being JJ, I only critique hindsight trading. What you missed is, Goild is setting the stage. If gold goes up he will say, hey I sold my 1k GDX shares and made 600 dollars for lunch money. If gold goes down, he will say.. as predicted there was no bounce to 1300.

          2. JJHarmen

            Work location? By that you mean a building somewhere in Chicago, the city Lena has said many times she hates? Wow, that was a big secret that I revealed. Nice try Nada.

  4. Goild

    Good morning Nada,

    The crystal ball cost time and thinking.
    Though I am bullish on gold on the long term. I do not worry about GDX, I will add more shares as it drops or rises.

  5. JJHarmen

    I have been critical of Goild’s streak of endless wins but since he went to the trouble to comply with the demand that he post a screenshot, I say lets lay off him. He is a nice fellow.

    1. Christian

      Good point β€” it doesn’t matter whether I believe him or not at this point.. I appreciated the fact that he went the extra mile to shut people up (myself included).

      I would take GOILD over people like Pedestrian and his new found love Primetime ANY day Lol!

      1. primetime

        You know Christian, we got into it pretty good. You do what you do best, and you know what it is (playing the innocent victim card). That being said, I have opened my mind and heart and realized that you cannot possibly be that bad of a person. In other words, I have taken a different approach to your personality and I enjoy your banter.

        The sheeple pile on Ped frequently on here, sometimes it is warranted, most of the time not. I know he is knowledgeable about his subjects and I gained value from his posts, therefore I did not want to see him get run off the site. Time will tell.

        1. Christian

          Hey man.. I don’t play the victim card. I don’t mind busting people’s balls every now but I’m fairly civilized about it. I also don’t mind people calling me on my bs, if and when, on this blog or in real life as long as they keep it within reason.

          YOU, my good friend, took it to a whole other level once upon a time and came at me pretty hard — it was borderline vicious and that’s not cool, plain and simple. Let’s not do that again.

          I will say this though.. I LOVE banter and I’m glad that you enjoy it as well because at the end of the day that’s all it is — fun friendly banter. Life is too short to be carrying around anger or angst all the time.

    2. Nada

      The screenshot showed a 500 dollar gain. That hardly constitutes proof for an endless streak of wins. If Goild would join the contest, then I think we would see that everything is not as it appears. But you keep drinking the kool aid JJ.

      1. Christian

        True, a 1 day gain doesn’t equate to a streak of endless wins.. That, or maybe Goild is a savant, think Rainman πŸ™‚ That guy would kill at day-trading!!

  6. JJHarmen

    This stock market rally is getting way over done. Even though I hate the triple leveraged funds, the inverses are looking mighty tempting. If the market drops like a stone, I will do like so many here (like Ped) and tell everyone after the fact that I got ‘in’. Just in time .

  7. Christian

    That being said..

    Nada is right β€” hindsight trading of any kind is a baloney sandwich! If you’re gonna try and impress, post your trades IN REAL TIME or join Gary’s online bingo (RIP Mustang Sally) πŸ™‚

    1. Nada

      LOL. I almost forgot about that. That joker would say with great confidence, how Gary was going to be in church repenting for his view on the dollar. Gary is Mustang Sally’s JDST position is still open? She might be doing OK.

  8. Christian

    And as for PEDESTRIAN..

    He’s a perfect example of someone who takes it too far and that’s why Gary gave him an ultimatum.

    Let’s be clear, there was never anything wrong with his opinion nor his point of view but it just became over-inflated, over-bearing, and incessantly argumentative.. Gary called him on it just the other day.

    Have your opinion, state your opinion and then let it go — simple.

    He was also extremely defensive and thinned skin and the conflicts between him and several others would never end peacefully. Yes! We are all guilty to some extent and I myself may have thrown a few choice words here and there, but he was always the common denominator.

    And the proof is in the pudding…

    This site became a heck of a lot more friendly when he vanished for a few months, no one can deny that. Frankly, I’m glad that Gary caught on and stepped up to the plate πŸ™‚ This is his site after all.

      1. Christian

        I promise you this Primetime.. and I can only speak for myself but I’m not intentionally trying to run anybody off this blog. I just want fun-filled banter and constructive opinions/criticisms. That’s it.

        Is that really too much to ask for??

      2. Gary Post author

        Ped is just getting a one-week time out as he didn’t keep his promise to tone it down.

        I imagine BD is just sulking because he’s on the wrong side of the market and will be back once the metals find a bottom.

        Hopefully Don is just taking a vacation and will be back at some point and not ill

  9. Goild

    Guys,

    Thanks for comments.
    And let us keep in mind that we are here to make MONEY, MONEY, and MORE MONEY.
    If we can brainstorm and find good trades it would be awesome.
    We have a lot of brain power here.

  10. jacob2

    Making money on oil and industrial metal stocks. Inflation trades . PM stocks usually hitched to this train just not yet or has the world fundamentally changed somehow (bitcoin)?

      1. Christian

        I’m just trying to play the bounce up in Metals. The odds are good but it’s a countertrend move and with those, there’s always a certain level of risk involved.

        1. jake

          Looks like GDX could be stuck in the middle of a trading range between 23.82 and 22.70.
          Being in the market is a risk, trading in the middle of a range even more risk.

    1. Spanky

      It looks like Gary’s scenario across everything is unfolding to a T. I agree with Gary that it is hard to envision gold really getting much traction until the SM bubble pops. that doesn’t preclude a rally in gold, but it is hard to see gold get any real momentum here until something cracks in the Fed’s well laid plan.

      It is true that the stock market tends to do less well when yen is rising and at worst goes sideways, so maybe the stock market cools off for an hour or two before buyers step in. lol.

  11. Goild

    Nada,

    I only use Margin day trading, and it is limited with JNUG.
    Though, I try to not get more $5K JNUG shares, as risk increases, and my judgement suffers.
    Then stupidity in hopium comes in.

  12. Strike2

    I like (not really like, but believe it will occur) the 1250-1260 first, then be repelled by the chart-reoccurring 1307 level. This would allow RSI to revisit oversold area and dig a little deeper into slo sto. And leave on the outside a $50 move up to play adroitly, perhaps taking a week or so to peak.

  13. Troy

    The gap in the Q’s up over over 146.37 this morning that I was expecting yesterday is looking really good. I did not get my UWT order order filled at 14.75 though, so I was not able to add to my position there. Maybe it will settle down a bit after the jobs number tomorrow for another chance.

  14. Goild

    Nada,

    Yes. I had made two times about $400 to lose them. So I had to be positive.
    I took the risk because the support from yesterday was about $18.5.
    Here are the trades.
    JNUG FILLED AT $18.58 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 11:58:38 AM 10/05/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $18.5254 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 12:00:33 PM 10/05/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $18.4354 Market Buy 2000 at Market Day 12:02:18 PM 10/05/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $18.416 Market Buy 2000 at Market Day 12:03:18 PM 10/05/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $18.376 Market Buy 2000 at Market Day 12:09:02 PM 10/05/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $18.3754 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 12:09:41 PM 10/05/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $18.4629 Market Sell 5000 at Market Day 12:12:30 PM 10/05/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $18.48 Market Sell 1000 at Market Day 12:26:42 PM 10/05/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $18.494 Market Sell 2000 at Market Day 12:27:39 PM 10/05/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $18.524 Market Sell 2000 at Market Day 12:28:10 PM 10/05/2017

    1. Nada

      Goild I was not asking for proof. We are past that. I was curious about your methodology, but I think I see now. You entered with the anticipation with a bounce off “support”. To your dismay, It broke below, you averaged down a few times and it finally bounced off .5 fib retracement.

      You don’t use fibs so I was perplexed what the hell you were seeing, but my best guess is you made your final buy when you saw some tail off the 5m candle. From a technical standpoint I am not following the reasoning for such a large position, but hey I am glad it worked for you.

  15. Jimsee

    getting out of spx/qqq calls fwiw…intraday divergences and this pattern is highly volatile – good luck to all πŸ™‚ b/e is better than this risk for me.

    1. Troy

      Not me unfortunately. I am holding some JNUG at an average price of 18.18, so getting a bit nervous here. Should’ve sold some on the morning pop but thought the DCL was in so I held. I’m going to put a stop/loss in 18.20 on them, so at least I won’t lose money.

        1. Strike2

          If you read McClellan’s current 321gold arttcle, it’s not always a bottom or top. Sometimes it’s a continuation.
          Talk about having all bases covered…..

  16. vin

    Thank you Gary.

    I am not convinced that nasdaq will go to 24k or even 12k in five months. If it does that would be great.

    But, I am already doing well. I own both hqu and tqqq. Though I decided to write call options on tqqq just in case.

    Thanks again. Another one of your picks seems to work well, hope it continues for a while. Keep it up Man.

        1. Jimsee

          I don’t like it when the moon cycles get ‘in sync’ – so going back to the last major pattern I was looking for a reason, and voila – something I did not notice at the time- there is a very clear linkage – books have been written on the subject so suffice it to say my sinus headaches render be less effective at memory than I should be. How long the ‘clear linkage’ remains in effect is a mystery – a research project for the fall.

          1. Jimsee

            this linkage is the reason the 9th is more likely than the 6th to be useful for the cyclic calulations going forward – even if we see the price low tomorrow.

  17. Spanky

    Gold’s 200 and 233 WMAs at 1232 and 1246 respectively. I really am not expecting those to break on the ICL, but who the hell knows. A test certainly isn’t out of the question. But first, perhaps a bounce.

  18. Christian

    USLV holding up quite well all things considered β€” a bullish omen in my view πŸ™‚

    Tempted to pick up a few more shares.. but let’s see what maΓ±ana brings.

    1. Christian

      The intermediate advance is to the downside but GOLD is due for a bounce out of a DCL Jake, and I promise you this.. We’re gonna get it πŸ™‚ Now is certainly not the time to be short Metals.

    1. Nada

      While the deal is certainly not in the best interest of the United States, and we all know there is only 1 reason it was implemented – I am not sure ending deal with be the catalyst for golds rise. I will certainly not look a gift horse in the mouth. What’s your read AT?

      1. vin

        Just curious. What was that 1 reason?

        Are Saudi Arabia and Pakistan more trustworthy? In fact all the evident shows that san this couple most of the terrorist act in the West wouldn’t have occurred. Saudi Arabia has too much money and pak has too many “brave” young men.

        Yet, everyone ignores the duo and goes after Iran? Again, Iran doesn’t even have a bomb. And, pak has tons of them. There are many articles written that NK could not have been successful in obtaining a bomb without pak.

        And, America gives both financial and military aid to Pakistan?

        The whole thing is sooooo confusing. It makes no sense at all.

        1. Nada

          Obama. Yes, I agree with you. A lot of unfair practices and SA and Pakistan are definitely terror states. I think 15 of the 19 terrorists on 911 were from Saudi Arabia, yet we attack Iraq?

  19. Nada

    Well here is a little light at the end of the tunnel for you goldbugs. Someone bought significant gold in front of NFP;

    GLD 68.51 million
    IAU 69.51million

  20. ras

    fas/xlf,qld/tqqq,svxy, etc. making new highs. Now it is open ground for tqqq for a while. Nothing goes up straight, there may be pauses along the way. Just ride the trend while it lasts.

  21. Gary Post author

    This is why it’s dangerous trying to go long during the declining phase of an intermediate cycle. If you don’t time the bottom correctly then there may not be enough of a bounce when it comes to produce a profitable trade.

    We are in the first daily cycle on the dollar index. First daily cycles can rally for 25-30 days. It’s only on day 20. We could easily see a $20 drop in gold today if the jobs number is strong causing the dollar to rally hard. Those that bought several days ago trying to anticipate a bottom prematurely might go so far underwater that they won’t be able to recover even when the bounce comes.

    The safest strategy is buy dips during the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle and sell rallies during the declining phase. You have a margin of error with these strategies because the dominant trend is in your favor. Playing counter trend moves you have no margin of error.

    I had to learn this the hard way myself when I was a novice trader.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      Well said, Gary!
      I have tried to buy gold within this decline at 1321 (stopped out at 1318) and yesterday at 1274 (got stopped at nearly 1271).
      Not to mention my repeated failed trials to short SM this year πŸ™‚

  22. Alexandru Popovici

    EURJPY needs to complete its DC decline, w/ fib38 @ 131.78.
    It now stand right on the trend line of its DC!

    While it now stands at 132.20, in order to reach merely its fib38 would be achievable with EURUSD at…. 1.163 while USDJPY just marginally breaking out at 113.30.

    Thus, EURUSD at 1.163 would become the most optimistic level (for EUR bulls) while realistically we can expect it in 1.15 to allow EURJPY get a decent correction to its DCL.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      Worth noting: JPYUSD has been adamantly rejected by its 10dma while a DCL on day 37 or 38 (today/Monday) would be more fit for a long-cycled JPY than on day 30 (on Sep27 @ 0.8832) –> thus a breakout to 113.3 for USDJPY is easy-busy.

  23. Alexandru Popovici

    Hello, Zkot!

    Yes, when I review JPY, I prefer using the chart of JPYUSD instead of that of USDJPY.

    By the way, EURJPY has just almost tagged its 10dma (132.45), a permanent resistance, while USDJPY pierced through 113.30 w/o a problem (as expected), so that in order to see EURJPY at 131.7, this would imply EURUSD at 1.159 while assuming USDJPY up at 113.6 while the dollar climbs its way.

    Thus, EURUSD to be definitely seen next week in 1.15 turf πŸ™‚

  24. JJHarmen

    Gary’s methods are best for providing some degree of accuracy when it comes to predicting gold. Hell, even I was congratulating Pedestrian for calling 1280 as gold’s turning point. So much for chart reading, support levels and all that other BS. 1280 turned out to be just another number.

  25. AT

    Investing.com – The U.S monthly employment report showed that the economy unexpectedly destroyed jobs in September, the unemployment rate ticked lower and wage inflation rose more than expected, according to official data released on Friday.
    Non-farm payrolls declined by 33,000 in September, compared to the rise of 169,000 a month earlier that was revised up from the initial increase of 156,000. The data missed the consensus estimate for the creation of 90,000 jobs.

    1. Nada

      My god Goild, must we here the same thing from you every single day? How about we all assume you made a ton of money everyday and you post when you have a loss or an actual idea. This constant patting yourself on the back and looking for self approval is really something you need to address with you hawaiin psychiatrist.

    1. Nada

      Jimsee – I assume you are talking about open interest on Dec /GC strike 1300 calls? If not, can you expand a bit. Specifically why 140-150k range is significant in your view. Thanks

  26. Nada

    This is the DCL. I am seeing enough evidence in futures time and sales data to suggest a bottom here on a slight overshoot of the 61.8 fib. First target is 1295 on xauusd.

  27. Troy

    Ok, on the premise that Gold holds 1264 I bought some JNUG back at 17.90. Also added some UWT, ERX and GUSH back this morning to bring those positions back to 2/3 of what I want. I’ll see about adding the final 1/3 next week. Holding my boatload of TQQQ.

  28. victor

    Goild, really man, look at the reasons you post your profit everyday, does it help others? or give any hints in trading? I did over 428$ buying gold at the bottom today and sold just now, and doing average 150 everyday with much smaller money then you. So, should I post about it? Please, tight up your ego.

  29. Goild

    Well, I dislike my trading. It is not classic trading, by the book trading.
    Rather than taking advantage of the JNUG rocket.
    I shorted it.
    I lost my early paid of $600.
    Plus another $2000.
    As usual I doubled, and tripled, and managed to end up with +++$2152 paid today.
    So I am closing another good week with about $5.3K to enjoy the weekend.
    As of seeing a psychiatrist I probably need to see one about being a contrarian πŸ™‚
    M +$590
    T +$686
    W +$765 + $600 swing
    T +$711
    F +$2152
    I am whatever is the right word for having such performance. It is what it is.
    Do not think it is for free. I paid my dues, and luck is helping me.

  30. Goild

    I would love to hear how others perform. I would like to know how others trade.
    As you know pretty much my trading is documented here. There is openness.
    People thrive for openness and very few share.
    Everyone satisfies his/her ego one way or another in posting.
    While I admit that I must reflect on posting profits, I also realize that issues people have with postings are likely issues with themselves.
    But let me say it.
    I beg your pardon.

  31. Goild

    Victor,

    I appreciate you post about your trading. You are a good trader. Having a larger account provides a lot of flexibility and a lot of room for error, which I make many; it is an advantage.
    I will well take you suggestion and reflect about my profit postings. This is really an issue I must deal with.
    Thank you.

    1. Nada

      Goild please adhere to guidelines that were put in place on the blog – No hindsight trading. That and the endless need for self approval has been my only point of contention. The after the fact stuff needs to be squashed.

      I would love to see your viewpoints BEFORE the actual move. This morning was a perfect example. NFP prints an gold gets monkey hammered and then you stroll in and say “It may be a bad day for gold”. Really? Hindsight seems to be your forte.

      1. Christian

        Agree — would like to hear about your strategy BEFORE it happens Goild.

        We’ve been over this a hundred times already. Yes, you’re a sweetheart but time to switch it up buddy!

  32. AT

    out with profit, back in cash

    New trade Oct 6: SOLD all positions 100% JNUG 19.20

    Oct 2 BUY another 100% JNUG at 17.90 (not considered in the challenge)

    Sep 26 BUY 50% JNUG 18.83
    Sep 26 BUY 50% JNUG 19.07
    Sep 26 sold 50% DUST 24.16
    Sep 25 buy 50% DUST 23.45
    Sep 22 SOLD 50% JNUG 19.25
    Sep 21, BUY 50% JNUG 18.41
    Sep 18 – sold 100% DUST 23.45
    Aug 31 – buy 50% DUST 21.80
    Aug 28 – buy 50% DUST 23.06
    Aug 24 – sold 50% JNUG 18.89
    Aug 22 – buy 50% JNUG 18.27
    Aug 18 sold 100% JNUG 18.80
    Aug 2 buy 50% JNUG 18.20
    Jul 31 buy 50% JNUG 18.59
    Jul 28 sold 100% JNUG 18.69
    Jul 27 buy 50% JNUG 17.61
    Jul 27 buy 50% JNUG 17.98
    Jul 24 sold 100% DUST 30.95
    Jul 18 buy 50% DUST 30.19

  33. Nada

    For the life I mean, I can’t remember who said it – but someone in here was insistent that during the next daily cycle that the miners would lead gold in a big way. JNUG ran into resistance at the 50ma, but the close will be interesting.

    I know Gary believes this cycle will be left translated and he has made some great calls lately, so I am not going to fault his analysis. Personally I think the NK issue impacted the shallowness of the previous daily cycle low and this cycle will be right translated. I am not seeing the short cycle scenario, but he has my attention.

  34. jake

    Forget the useless moving averages couldn’t ask for a better set up today with the USD/JPY at resistance, and Au bouncing off the 1263 support right on its appointed time.

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