Gold Update for October 17
The dollar looks to have completed a daily cycle low and gold a daily cycle top. Gold is failing to hold the critical $1,300 level and I suspect will not conclude an intermediate degree cycle low until sometime in early December.
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Morning peeps. I am sure this means nothing, but they bought a ton of tail risk yesterday. Check the skew.
If we close below 15ema today I will have to give up a very tasty burrito, so not too thrilled about that this morning.
Regardless if we close below 15ema I am holding onto my tasty burrito until we have a confirmed left translated cycle. I may have been a bit to hasty on my requirement to stay above. Tomorrow should be more telling.
I will post a chart in a few hours, but I see one last hope for gold. This may be a corrective blessing. A drop to 1281-1285 may be in the works (xauusd), but still remains in channel.
Dollar is on thriving on Trumps potential chair pick – a hawk, so I will use close below 15ema in gold to exit and except my defeat. I might disappear for a month and hope everyone forgets if that happens.
I will not short Gold now, but waiting a coorection to load Gold/Silver, Gary will be listened for sure, and the Put/Call open interest, and Stochastics 9 with volume.
Still Short USA 500 CFD 1X300, but close to stop loss.
I opened yesterday night a Sell short position on Bitcoin CFD 1X30 at $5620 with stop loss in $5800 and with $50USD. Signal: Elias cousin investing in Bitcoin, y told him not to do so right now, but bought any way, of course, stochastics is very overbought too.
Good trading all
It’s not only cousin Elias to buy it,I got every day some mail regarding “how to get rich with bitcoin” .
This is almost surreal after bitcoin went form 1 cent to over 5000 dollars.
I think bitcoin could reach from 10000 to 20000 before crash.
1% of the investor bought it when it was under 10 and they are wealthy now .
99% is buying now,they are awaiting the same level of past gains ,they will lose all the money invested.
One can ponder how a loss affects trading phycology.
I am not particularly happy this morning.
The recipe is then to get back to the trading ANT mode.
Play small money.
Oh oh, no lunch money today Goild? You probably could lose a few pounds anyway from all the eating you have enjoyed this year, courtesy of the markets.
“Phycology” is the study of algae. I don’t know what “trading phycology” is.
I tried to warn everyone that playing the long side during the declining phase of an intermediate cycle was risky.
No one ever listens to me though when I give them good advice….
Everyone has to learn the hard way. I certainly did. No matter how many times my mentor warned me against bad habits it wasn’t until I lost money several times that I finally listened.
Its not over until the fat lady sings. We had 6 green days and so far we have had a half retracement of that initial move – that is a healthy bull in my view. Time will tell, but lets get it a few days before claiming victory.
I with you Nada. I am seriously considering adding to GDX this morning. The miners do not seem too troubled .
Almost everyone is on board with you Gary.
who was your mentor?
Gary, care to share any info on your mentor?
I’ve been sharing pearls of wisdom for years, although very few ever pay attention to them.
The people who are listening/have listened are sitting quietly in the front row with their popcorn (happily making money, BTW) watching the sh*tshow that forms here every time you put up a new post and rattle the cages.
I’d wager their are more of us than you think, on this side as well as the paid side.
half retracement so far
If close below channel on 4h then invalid. GL
cyclic work , non-astro, points to early dec (5th) as ICL target fwiw. maybe we topped on-time here?
Don’t sweat this little pull back with gold. Didn’t Pedestrian say multiple times that gold would have to test the year’s highs before collapsing ? He also said crude was going to $40 and copper to $2 (still opportunities on those), so sharpen up your pencil boys and girls and learn how to chart the Pedestrian way.
For what it’s wroth, I think gold will recover and not only test the year’s highs sometime in the next several months, but exceed that high considerably. Just my opinion, no chart or other useless technical work to ‘support’ my theory.
It is disappointing to see silver drop back but I have bought a more SLV@ 16.12. My holdings in this etf are getting quite sizable.
Gary’s gonna scold you big time!
Still holding my 2 trades, ERX which I bought @ $24 and change and JDST which I bought @ $63 and change. I am a patient man. Was an idiot to buy JDST at that level and I’m man enough to admit it. Gonna still make money on it, but gonna be lunch money when it could have been a helluva lot more. Although….maybe more than lunch money if Gary is right about December ICL. The one wildcard to me for gold is US & NK, because both leaders are crazy.
Good trading to all. Watch out for falling knives as friend Goild says.
Flags in the Russell, Dax, Cac, Ftse, energy stocks, biotechs, & mid caps.
When these flags are ready to resume the upward trend we should get another strong push to 2600-20 before a more substantial pullback.
I predicted that once the vertical phase began the market would move much faster between round numbers.
Compare how long it took the Dow to go from 20,000 to 21,000. Or from 21,000 to 22,000. Then look how fast it went from 22,000 to 23,000.
Yep. Gary, how much of your own money, or net worth, have you got on the SM going vertical?
I have the largest position of any trade I’ve had in many years right now.
This is the way it is supposed to be. Trade small money and in one hour get $423.
Yes, allthatglitters, good trading to all.
By the way, I guess we all have our moments of stupidity, and moments of brightness.
Just like the mood of the market, it often changes.
The bottom line is the bottom line.
I think looks good; I doubled down on JNUG at 17.90 … for a 15 dollars down in Gold price, JNUG didn’t move down too much. Good luck to me!
My oh my.. look at that RIGHT SHOULDER on the Greenback — Those soft gentle lines 🙂
How many of you made fun of my ‘inverse H&S’ again?! Lol!
Watch the neckline break like a little twig and then you can all line up outside my door and apologize while I stuff my face with Nada’s big burrito!! **Not a d*ck joke, even though it sounds like one.
LOL! Oh man, that was funny. For the record, I never made fun of your pattern, I just said if I had a nickel..
The DXY is not done with her decline. She is very close to where I want her before she makes the BIG drop into her final wave down. muhahahaha
JNUG looks like having a heads and shoulders, gold does not look good,
Perhaps more pain is coming.
This one has been building for months. The rally out of July was ugly to begin with, but now the picture is complete:
H&S always play out in the miners. This one projects to about $27. That is serious pain.
27 in GDXJ is highly unlikely, in my opinion. I will be glad if we hit 32 and then will ‘load the boat’.
This is the same kind of sentiment we see during every intermediate decline. Traders have forgotten what happens during a bloodbath phase and they try to pick a top way too early.
I gave everyone a very good target in that lower triangle trendline. Until we get there it’s too early to start buying. In fact it’s way too early to begin buying until gold completes a failed daily cycle which hasn’t happened yet.
Also by now you would think people would have learned what sentiment looks like at a final intermediate bottom. There is panic and the prevailing the expectation is that gold will just continue to go down and down. Until we get to that kind of black pessimism don’t expect a final intermediate bottom.
The daily Cycles have evolved and elongated so to think that this daily cycle can’t last into late November or early December is foolish. The normal duration is now 40 to 50 plus days and we’re only on day 7.
Who exactly are you adressing Gary?
if everything would be so simple … JNUG is actually close to break even when Gold down $15 …
Yes, last time when gold hit 1261, GDXJ briefly touched 33.35 or so.
The flag on the Russell 2000 is beyond text book perfect. And given the size of moonshot that preceded it, makes it all the more ridiculous. Talk about buying pressure, wow.
I think it will easily spike to new highs and it will form negative divergences on the momentum indicators at which point it will correct a little bit harder, but I guarantee today’s price won’t be taken out on that correction.
Indeed, more pain, more pain, and more pain.
Snap out of it Goild. The time to buy is when you are too scared to pull the trigger. Go get that young wife of yours and have her execute 21,000 shares of JNUG. Turn off the monitor and remind everyone here in a week how Nada made you rich!
The manipulators who are extremists may want to run JNUG today to $17.1.
I dropped 1K JNUG shares at $18.05 so the pain in my swing trade is lesser.
I am holding 2K JNUG shares and now I need to be patience. Hopefully I will get the money back.
On the day trading account I am green and so ANTs have a party mostly everyday.
To me the Dow very much looks likes the NASDAQ’s epic run in 1999. It relentlessly pushed against the upper bollinger band for 5-6 months into it’s monstrous the peak. Back then the Nasdaq looks like it had 8 closes over the upper weekly bollinger band back then before it had a one week pullback, which is statistically incredible.
Sorry here is the current Dow chart:
Better comparison. Note the very similar start to the moves–a test of the 200 WMA. There are other similarities as well:
Bonds are going up while gold is going down. I am not convinced that gold is going to slide until Dec.
It probably won’t go down in a straight line. I expect there to be at least a 1-2 week countertrend bounce, perhaps when gold hits the 50 or 200 WMA.
Spanky has a point.
If GDXJ penetrates the lower trend line there is only vacuum to hold the junior miners.
The way to do this is by pyramiding.
Goild – have you not been paying attention? You are listening to a bitter bull that is trapped in miners. He is using reverse psychology, to mentally prepare himself for a perceived bloodbath. Dixie ran into 61.8 fib resistance and will now ride a wave directly to hell. Wiggles my friend.
LOL – ‘have you not been paying attention’? Heard this one several times before, from the headmaster 🙂
Put a buy order in for some GDX. The miners are not overly weak considering gold’s smack down.
That will come with time. They may not collapse in a waterfall. Very similar to action in late 2015 perhaps, where they stayed flat while gold dropped. But they made up for it by absolutely tanking for a couple of weeks after gold had put in its bottom, and then reversing in January 2016. In that 2 week smash, some silver miners dropped 20-50%. The banksters can and will take the miners anywhere they damn well please.
Spanky , your love affair with charts will eventually cost you big. Charts reading works fine for the chicken shit moves but fails miserably at predicting important turns. Support and resistant levels have a 50% chance for the SM to go up or down from those levels which makes those odds on par with flipping a coin.
Sentiment is what matters, not lines on a chart that constantly need to be revised to fit what you want to see.
That’s fine. Yen and commodities are in a precarious position. My cynical guess is lower over the next 2 months, which means gold is going to get an absolute pounding in all likelihood. If you pull up a monthly chart for $XJY, the path of least resistance is down. The lower BB is coming in at about 84, which I expect to get tagged easily in the next month or two. I know Gary thinks the yen will make a right translated IC, but I don’t think so. It would take a miracle reversal next month. Not going to happen.
I put back in the swing account the 1K shares I dropped. 3K JNUG shares standing.
We shall see.
And I am done for the day.
Good trading to all.
“I have the largest position of any trade I’ve had in many years right now.”
This likely means 100%.
I did not made a lot of profit during this countertrend move, but bought and sold around the right time. And that gives satisfaction too 😉
Is anyone paying attention to the fact that both the CBOE and S&P VIX are up sharply from their lows a few days ago? That might indicate that volatility is about to enter the picture or maybe it just means nothing.
Sorry, I posted the wrong CBOE VIX chart. Notice that it is up 4.3% today.
@JJHarmen I mentioned this earlier, but here is something else that probably means nothing. Yesterday, “they” put on a shit-load of tail risk;
I hate to sound like a condescending little prick but most of you don’t have a clue how to read a chart. You’re letting pride and stubbornness dictate your moves and losing money in the process.
Folks, WAVE C of an ABC correction is just getting started so a bounce back up to 1400 from these levels is very unlikely. I also told you that the Greenback’s IC is still relatively young and a bounce back up to the trendline is very much in the cards for the dollar.
GET WITH THE PROGRAM — I’m gonna go ahead and re-post this chart from October 10th to give you people perspective.
You are suggesting everyone buy JNUG then?
You’re joking right?! Lol Good one.
The only person that should be buying JNUG is YOU – Alvin with no heart – since you clearly stated that you’re doing the EXACT OPPOSITE of everything I do, remember? 🙂
My question is: what is the magic number that JNUG will hit at the bottom of this gold/metals correction?
If you get it within $.50 – $1, that would definitely be worth a couple burritos.
‘I hate to sound like a condescending little prick but most of you don’t have a clue how to read a chart.”
So who are ‘most of you”? You have no idea what “most” people are doing. When you make statement of facts about people whom you have no knowledge, you make yourself look silly. Gary does the same thing.
case in point. gold is selling off.
ONE poster comes on the board, makes a bull case and then you and Gary go off on your nonsense that NO One is listening. you use a sample of one and project to the whole board, including the readers who don’t post. that’s is not really condescending. Its actually just ignorant.
I don’t mind looking silly as long as the point gets across and people make money 🙂 You can thank me later.
actually, it’s BOTH condescending AND ignorant. Let’s see, I’m going to say something really condescending, but I’ll preface it with this: “I hate to sound like a condescending little prick”, so people won’t think I’m a condescending little prick. heh…
No matter how you preface a condescending remark, it will still come out condescending. If you don’t want to sound condescending, then just don’t make condescending remarks. Pretty simple really.
Sometimes you gotta knock people upside the head and yes, occasionally I like to use inflammatory language to get my point across.
I don’t really care that you don’t like it 🙂
how do you know it’s wave C and not wave B of B? If the recent rally of the past few days is all of wave B, then wave B is pretty small in relation to wave A. It certainly could be, but why are you so certain wave B is complete? B waves are often zigzags, so it would have a better look if you could actually see a zigzag on the daily chart.
I’m not saying that gold WILL rally in wave C of wave B. What I am saying is that that possibility exists and therefore it seems premature to proclaim with certainty that wave C has begun.
Again, no disrespect intended but by that statement alone I can tell that you don’t quite get it.
Everything works in correlation. If the dollar was at the end of its intermediate cycle then my analysis on Gold would be significantly different.
THE US DOLLAR’S INTERMEDIATE CYCLE IS STILL FAIRLY YOUNG and more upside is to be expected which means that Wave B in Gold is/was nothing more than a dead cat bounce to sucker in naive bulls such as yourself and several others on this blog alone.
Watch the Euro, watch the dollar, GDXJ is trading below its 10DMA and could very well close below its 50DMA today, Gold’s bearish engulfing candle with today’s follow through.. ALL OF THESE THINGS PAINT A BIGGER PICTURE.
That picture is showing BEARISH MOMENTUM across the board.
Folks, it doesn’t have to be that complicated!!
I am taking screenshots Christian! I am giving you plenty of rope my friend! muahahahaha
Absolutely! And if my analysis is ‘bs’ then I give YOU and everyone else here permission to bust my balls as hard as you can 🙂
The unweighted commodity complex (GCC) is at a fairly pivotal juncture IMO based on the monthly chart. It hasn’t reached overbought on the stochastics for 6.5 years. That is ridiculous. The monthly bollinger bands are extremely narrow now and price is sitting right on top of the lower band. If it can’t muster a rally now, it will be pathetic. It’s basically within a stones throw of the 2016 low, which marks at least a 40+ year low for the commodity complex as a whole. This with the stock market making all time record highs and the Fed having blown up its balance sheet to 4.5 trillion.
If it actually starts another leg down here, wow is all I can say. The Fed has already executed a masterclass on money printing and funneling liquidity into “good” assets. But the class may not be over yet. Just incredible. Think about that–input costs are lower now than in the 1970’s!
GDX even. Impressive given gold’s descent.
Nothing goes down in a straight line.
Backtest for GDXJ vs GLD
holy scnhikies – me miners are UP – lol. If we can pop to 1320 now I’ll unload some of those for sure.
Could today’s low in Gold turn out to be a half cycle low in the daily cycle? Today is only day 7 of the daily cycle, so that’s probably a little early for a half cycle low. You’d expect one on day 10 or 12 or even 15. Quarter cycle low? 😉
fwiw – mux has a huge copper project that could be a *nice* sale for them if copper can hold above 3.25 for while IMO. may not happen soon however.
I appreciate the commentary. I have been accumulating MUX since the take down. EZ money.
We’ll have a toast when she doubles from here 🙂
$XJY. The monthly chart says its going lower, much lower. It needs to rally into month end, and that is not going to happen. Gold and commodities are in for an absolute hammering. I think the unweighted commodity complex will retest its 2016 low, at a minimum, if not begin a new leg down.
ALVIN — You’re asking me for a bold prediction and I can’t really give you that right now. Too soon to tell 🙂
I would love to see JNUG drop back down to 12.5 – pull up a weekly chart and you’ll see what I mean – but this will all depend on momentum in the Miners and Gold’s ability to break through several Support lines, starting with 1260.
When we do finally hit rock bottom.. I recommend SILVER. I have a feeling Silver is going to explode to the upside when Gold resumes its bull run.
3x silver or the miners?
3x of course 🙂
It will be interesting to see. The GLDX:GLD chart suggests that if gold does correct much more, folks might truly flee the juniors.
Almost everyone I weigh into my decision-making process ranging from Gary to me and quite a few in between agree. We are headed down into an ICL in gold while the dollar bounces from its ICL. Everything verifies the outcome, whether it be cycle theory, sentiment, COTs, inverse H&S for the $, etc etc etc. Almost no one disagrees.
I have this nagging feeling that whenever many are so certain of an outcome, with everyone that I follow in agreement, that the setup is somehow possibly flawed. No logic to support it, just emotion.
Gold is cooked. It’s 100% correlated to yen, and yen looks like it’s about to fall of a cliff. I’m a hardcore goldbug, but to me the monthly chart is extremely vulnerable still. Anything is possible. 2012-13 proved that without an absolute doubt.
Once they pull the plug on the yen, it’s going to be crystal clear.
My god, this is going to be great!
I’m Old Turkey long, unfortunately. So I truly pray you are correct and I am dead wrong. So far, you have been dead wrong. Not only that, as stated earlier, you think gold is going to roll over in an ICL even if it does make a marginal new DC high. So I am not sure what you are so excited about. A $50-70 pop in gold? Whoopee.
What have I been wrong about? I was screaming from the roof-top about long gold at the DCL. I posted about a million charts – saying buy after the breakout of the downtrend channel. It was a chart on /GC. My prediction was 1348 on spot – At least give it time to play out, as we have no confirmation of a failed cycle as of yet.
Yes I expect ICL afterwards. Great time to short. So yeah petty exciting.
I disagree 😛 but then I am a very different breed
No this is not what is going on, Gary is too early with his call.
No touch of the triangle bottom here, Gary is wrong again …
What do I have to back uo such a bold statement, absolutely nothing more than will power haha
First an anniversary of 911 and then we walk into a very dark place.
He’s been almost 100% correct since July.
Do I hope to hell the miners can miraculously ramp higher from here? Sure. Do I think such a move is likely without the usual a$$whipping? No.
JNUG is green, … sometimes contrarian trades to Gary’s calls are turning profits …
There is another anniversary tomorrow.
Interesting. Any details on how the anniversary dates are derived? GL
Novo Resources(and all the miners involved in this giant discovery) is something to check closely .
Of course is too early to say but today other positive news have arrived from that part of the world (Australia) that could have the largest gold deposit EVER in human history.
Will Novo be just an isolated case or it will be the spark that ignite ALL the rockets?
$indu:$gold monthly chart has acres to run to the upside now. The ratio is on its way to 21ish, which would be the 38% retrace of the bear market in the ratio.
The next 5-6 months are going to be excruciating to anyone shunning the US market in favor of gold and miners. The ratio is above all the monthly moving averages now, with the 50 and 100 month MAs curving sharply upward. Gold may not be dead, but it is going to seem that way to anyone who holds it instead of US stocks. The Fed’s lesson to you all…
OK, I am going to mention the SKEW once again. I would have assumed the would have reduced tail risk, but they added again. I am sure it is nothing;
I know it’s coming, just when? My best guess is next Thursday or Friday to let everyone stew on it over a weekend then come back the following week for a real downer. Trump is touting the Stock Market all the time now. It’s set up beautiful to blame it on him!
FWIW. GDXJ is coiling vs GDX:
I am sure I am cherry picking, but here is the weekly.
Oh yes little ones, the market is brewing us something special – muhahahaahah!
Is it? From the looks of your chart, the SM just kept grinding higher with hardly any correction.
What am I missing?
It’s a weekly chart and I am not saying it’s a trend changer. I am talking about a rug pull for a day or so in market.
oled getting active.
The only caution flag I would put up for consideration is that a lot of put contracts are being bought against the markets right now:
(Scroll to the bottom)
It’s the only sign of fear out there! (30-year anniversary of 1987 crash on Thursday!)
It’s unfortunate we must put up with the persistently disrespectful attitude of “Christian” while attempting to expand our knowledge of trading on this forum.
Oh suck it up Bob! You’re lucky to have me and there’s a Hell of a lot worse out there.
**Thankfully, the WORSE no longer frequents this blog — Hallelujah!!
Well, you seem to control the blog, and you’re welcome to it. I won’t be participating in future.
Another notch in Christian’s bedpost! For some unknown reason he loves to bully people right of the blog with “friendly banter”.
I love how you always ‘pop out of nowhere’ when my name comes up out of spitefulness but never there to give props when I hit the nail on the head 🙂 Lol! Typical.
anyone likes coffee at this level? Probably better choice then metals …, also, seasonality shows coffee up in November.
I am long JO at 15.99.
Christian – I appreciate your posting today – trading isn’t a place for bruised feelings – but tomes of attitude like some have in the past spent days posting are worthless imo. Iron sharpens Iron in this hard workplace we call a market 🙂
Thx Jimsee — I’m turning into a Pedestrian, perhaps I should also take my leave.
victor – my whole challenge account is in DAG fwiw – I think the grains and softs are due for a real run this winter.
No position changes for me today. NG is 17% daily bulls. Reloaded UGAZ this afternoon. One more big push up in the cards IMO.
Will add to JNUG on anything sub 18. Started USLV but silver looks weak. It always does until it launches out of no where.
Still short oil. It just won’t die. Starting to get a little nervous after the turnaround today.
Added to UGLD.
Markets are on the verge here. Things are going to get dicey. Ready to buy after the drop. Finally!
Not shorting yet. End of next week is my best guess. Probably NK bull crap will be the trigger.
I don’t think the holidays will be pleasant for market participants this year.
Not the morning I was dreaming of waking to last night. 1276 seems key on xauusd.
Ok 1276.i0ish hit and bounced on xauusd. 61.8 fib retracement. Lower than that, no bull. GL peepers.
Gary tried to tell you. You need to start listening. He has
been spot on with his calls.
I do my own analysis, but certainly enjoy others viewpoints of the sector. Thanks for your concern.
We are seeing again today why it is so dangerous to trade against the dominant intermediate trend. The countertrend bounce lasted all of six days. If you didn’t time the entry perfect, and the exit perfect you didn’t make any money at all and most will probably lose money.
what sector are you referring to?
During the beginning and middle stages of a decline into a cycle low traders view every intraday bounce as a bottom. The so-called, slope of hope. This is what keeps traders holding long positions all the way into the bloodbath phase where everyone panics and the selling finally exhausts.
Going to be a hard pill to swallow after reading this one wrong my friend. I can already hear the cries of currency manipulation 🙂
It would just be a left translated cycle. But I think the dollar will need at least one more right translated cycle before rolling over. Otherwise we would have a gold cycle that runs 30 to 40 weeks, and gold is already way overdue for a short cycle.
Here is what I have has the duration of a few previous ICs. Can you show me why you think this one will be shortened? Its an interesting scenario.
Here we go for the day!
Today we close green Goild. GL
I thought he/she was already green?
Goild, be patient. You have done well. Now it is time to give a bit back. so what? Your day will come again.
Look at Nada, never gives up. Great trading, my friend. Buy another 21000 jnug and go to a church/temple/synagogue or may be just a woodo shop and ask for whatever you wish. Ask and it shall be given. But, don’t forget to knock before that otherwise it won’t open.
Come on! We miss your chirpiness, your this avatar is not that buoyant . Good trading.
What do you see as having more potential % gain?
JNUG coming out of the ICL (not close to the ICL yet I know).
TQQQ going forward from this point.
SOXL going forward from this point.
The miners have a lot more Alpha than the stock indexes but they are much more difficult to trade. One could roll the dice and hope you trade the metals correctly and if you do you will make more money or you could play it safe and just buy a three times fund in the stock indexes and have a lot better odds of making money.
1257 (gold) keeps showing up for me – a perfect whip of the recent lows (Oct 6) and perhaps a spot to unload all but a small portion of puts/shorts – the momentum low? . 1218 shows up as a target for final low based on swing dynamics so far.
Large gap down in yen this am. I think $xjy eventually tags 83. Stock market is completely dependent now and n yen carry now, in the absence of QE.
Completely dependent on yen carry
If the BoJ pulled the plug on QE, all else equal, the stock market would be in serious trouble.
Guys, how do you see NG? what this daily/weekly consolidation can turn on? Doesn’t matter winter is coming, they can push it down to 1.70 like last January…
Regarding coffee: I like volatile JVA, hopefully come down to 4$ or so where I’m in
The greatest trick the devil ever played:
Not only did the Dow go much faster from 22,000 to 23,000, but today we’ve got a strong breakout above 23,000, so it doesn’t even look like the market is going to take a breather at the round numbers. The vertical phase is in progress, and I would guess that about 90 to 95% of you are missing it. Most are still fighting with a difficult metals market.
Thanks Gary. I followed you but with doubts. So far, so good. Only partially enjoyed tqqq because I wrote calls. But no complaints whatsoever. Though I am a bit disappointed with labu, bought a small amount at 88.18
I consider myself a goldbug, and for me, if we break below the July low I would start to seriously have second thoughts about this bull. If we broke below 1200 and the lower trendline from 2016, I would probably think the gold bull is dead or at best we get sideways to down action for the next decade.
Because those technical levels are so key to a bull thesis, the cynic in me thinks that they will be broken precisely for that reason.
So that being said, it wouldn’t shock me in the least if gold breaks below $1200 and perhaps significantly below the trendline established from 2016.
Gold and the dollar are doing exactly what I’ve been saying they are doing for the last several months. The dollar is forming a megaphone topping pattern. During that process gold is forming a triangle consolidation pattern. Gold will break out when the dollar breaks down.
The Dow has the smoothest chart. To me it looks the most like the Nasdaq 1998 chart of all of the indexes. It makes sense to me for a couple of reasons. Since there are only 2 oil companies and no other commodity stocks in the index, a flat to down commodity complex is going to greatly benefit most of these companies. Second, these are the largest of the large caps, and in a fascist business environment where the richest companies are able to tap capital markets at very low cost, the largest companies will do the best. Third, we have a few financial companies in the index that are beyond TBTF now.
The sheer evil of the situation is represented the best by Goldman Sachs. This was an investment bank that was allowed to convert itself into a bank in 2008-09 in order to take full advantage of the US govt backstops and Fed largess. They issued billions of $ worth of bonds with the explicit guarantee of the US govt. Not only that, they were paid 100 cents on the dollar by the US govt for their derivatives in which AIG was the counterparty. In effect, this is a company that 1000% should have been bankrupt in 2008. Not only were they made whole, but their stock is now at all time highs, and the GS partners like Blankfein are *billionaires* or have hundreds of millions in GS stock, like Gary Cohen (who got to sell over 200 million in GS stock *tax free* thanks to his Trump appointment!).
Same pattern everyday now. S&P opens and pops to a new high, then sells down a few points and then back up for a small gain or loss for the day. It’s looking very manipulated by those who have the resources, that being the central banks.
Gold diverging from the Yen big time.
One day does not a trend make. It is down vs yen since september. I think the gold:yen ratio is headed back to the 200 dma, and probably below thanks to what looks like a H&S top. H&S everywhere!
I have decided to hold off on buying more GDX. It looks like a trip to the 21 dollar level may be needed to clear out positive sentiment.
Yen ($XJY) is set for a serious plunge on the weekly chart. We already have an outside week down. There is nothing but air between current price and the lower bollinger band, which is now curving down and is now ready to receive a tumbling yen.
The monthly chart is even worse. There is nothing between current price and the lower monthly bollinger band which is coming in just under 84. Gold and silver are going to get bent over. Conversely, we should see one hell of a rise in the US stock market as this unfolds. Borrow $$$ from the BoJ at negative interest rates (they pay you to borrow!) and go long US stocks. You can’t lose!!!
Damn wrong chart. here is yen weely:
It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
It’s so obvious that there has to be a trick right? Goldbugs have been in denial about the yen correlation for years. Or almost as bad, they say the correlation will eventually break. Well yeah, maybe it will “eventually” break, but that could be in the long run, and in the long run we are all dead anyway.
The other thing that most people mess up is that gold is only directionally correlated with yen. Which is to say, it could outperform yen massively by not dropping as much in % terms. But the bottom line it will still fall in USD terms. which is all that people on this board care about.
The yen is just basing in preparation for starting a new bull market, just like gold. This process takes time, but most traders are way too impatient for to let it play out. Right now the yen is moving down into an intermediate cycle low. It has to break and close below that intermediate trendline. It may even retest the lows. But the yen has begun a new bull market just like gold.
That’s a very bold call Gary. I think yen will eventually break below the last ICL, which means any bull in the yen is going to be faith based only. I base this mostly off of the monthly chart ($XJY), where price is below the 20 and 50 month MAs. In fact price couldn’t even touch those MAs this month, which is a terrible sign. The lower monthly BB is going to be a magnet, which right now is coming in at just under 84. Also, the stochastics are poised to get to oversold levels. They are currently going sideways under 50 in a very unnatural manner. Can’t see them turn up here without first hitting oversold levels.
We need a reversal in yen, and a hard one, next month to prevent a trip down to 84. It needs to rally back to the 20 month MA. Not going to happen.
Keep an eye on the Igloo/Chimney Top. Possible head fake on rounding top;
Anything is possible.
Maybe the BoJ comes out with a shock announcement that they are ending all QE and will start selling Japanese bonds and ETFs.
And maybe unicorns that shit Skittles exist too.
You really are a brave ONE. One day you will be proven right like all real gurus. OM!
Just like a broken clock is right twice a day.
Targets remain. Unfortunately the markets don’t go from point A to point B in one day. I am not wrong until the cycle LT before 1348. You guys can start your happy dance then. Like I said earlier this morning, we close green today in gold. Peace!
Remember this chart peeps? Dixie sellers stepping in 🙂
New 6 year high in dow:gold today. The ratio has a lot further to run IMO. Another 20% before any sort of breather IMO. That would take us to the 38% retrace in the ratio.
The Dow has been driven to a new high by IBM, a washed up old company that has been in decline for years and which relies on financial engineering tricks to make appear more profitable. This market has no business being at record highs and wouldn’t be if the central banks weren’t involved buying with their free money scam.
Yen ($XJY) arguably has a large H&S on the monthly chart. The target would be $xjy of 70 if the neckline breaks, which to me looks almost guaranteed to happen over the next few months. The neckline is coming in around 86 currently.
I like this: “Ask and it shall be given.”
How many people do not get for not asking? Most!
Two of my accounts are green today and so I am done for the day.
Here is what I am holding:
1500 GDX shares.
2000 JNUG shares.
600 NUGT shares.
Well done! And, I am sure you will get the opportunity to buy more jnug at 16. It is just a matter of time. Good luck.
New 6 year high in dow:gold today. The ratio has a lot further to run IMO. Another 20% before any sort of breather IMO. That would take us to the 38% retrace in the ratio.
Spanky, so is the DOW going to fall or is gold going to go up in order to bring that ratio down?
If I had to make a pessimistic guess, stock market much higher with gold flat to down. The stock market has repaired a hell of a lot of damage vs gold and is getting close to the 38% retrace of the bear that started in 2000 and ended in 2011. It is above the 200 month MA now, and the 50 month MAs is pointed up strongly.
Smoking some eskimos out of that igloo/chimeny top! muhahahaha
Green …. I don’t know about jnug but tqqq and hqu are green though a tiny bit only.
The day when JNUG will, if not rocket, rise a good deal, is coming.
I do not want to be caught off-guard.
This is the time to be building positions.
If JNUG gets to $16 we double the position. In the mean time we hedge with day trading.
Remember, no plan, no gain.
Where is Don? Don are you hearing us?
We miss you!
Yes you have been consistent in that you will invest big in jnug when it reaches 16. I wish you luck that you get the opportunity to investment. Again you are right that such opportunities are rare. Until that time enjoy your day trading but please don’t talk about your pains because that sounds depressing. Enjoy the ride.
Dow upper monthly bollinger band coming in at over 23300. I expect a monthly close over that level. We should get a number of closes over the upper band as the blowoff/parabolic phase of this bull is just getting started. Dow could top when it is 3-4x its 200 month moving average, which will probably put it in the 40-50,000 region.
Spank, what are your views on semis
I meant Spanky ….. darn spelling checker
I would just go with Gary’s call for SMH to get to at least the 1998-99 peak before any sort of major correction. I am not long the stock market in any significant way though, so there’s that.
I think the Dow is the safest bet. Just get levered out the wazoo.
2016 was nothing but a blip in the ongoing commodity bear. It literally rallied for 6 months after 5 years of getting absolutely smashed to 40 or 50 year lows. It has now basically given back all of those gains after a year and a half. To me it is poised for another leg down. It needed some time for the long term moving averages to catch up to price, which they have now done.
Best case, it will go sideways to slightly down as the 200 WMA continues to drop. Then maybe a suckers rally back to the 200 WMA, and then another 4 -5 years of basing action.
Gold reached a peak of 1362.4 and bottomed at 1262.8, a 99.6 decline, call it an a-wave correction. Then it had a b-wave countertrend rally to 1308.4. Therefore, I could see a 99.6 decline from that point to 1208.8, or round it off to 1209, call it the c-wave or final leg down before gold resumes its secular bull market. That’s my best guess. This is basis the Dec contract.
Outside week down in silver. Time to kiss it good bye.
At a minimum there will be some follow through to the downside.
Marijuana stock cycle update. It’s a “smoking” post… 🙂
OWCP & XXII have been good day traders.
The miners are tied at the hip to the trashiest currency in the DXY. And it’s set to get even trashier, beginning now.
Actually here is a better view of the situation the miners are in. If anything, they are set to “catch down” to the POS yen.
Good and interesting chart. Thanks for sharing.
DISCLAIMER: CNBC daily commentator wrote this today. Bought his first Bitcoin in June & still joked about it. Not any more. Most important part is that EVERY panelists laughed off Bitcoin after the first several encounters. Read ending after the part about Pension Funds & Endowments getting ready:
Gold really shouldn’t drop below the 233 WMA. The 89 WMA already positively crossed the 233 WMA, so if price falls below the 233 WMA, it is a very bad sign. Same exact thing is in play for GDX. I suppose its possible the 200 WMA is tagged which is just below the 233 MA, but really gold has no business getting that low if this is truly a new bull IMO. No bull run in the past violated the 233 MA in the metals or mining indexes after the 89 WMA crossed above.
6-8 more weeks of downside huh? This is going to get fugly. Just look at that lower weekly bollinger. It’s saying “come to me.” And if you didn’t notice, the yen tends to follow through just a bit once it bends the weekly bands like this. (That is an understatement actually.)
SM pull back in the wind?