CHALLENGE UPDATE

We have a new leader.

1. Troy S +99.9%
2. Daniel M +67%
3. Bob S +48%
4. Darren R +48%
5. Adrian S +43%

The top five positions would change a bit if some recent trades were marked to market. However they haven’t closed out their trades yet so as of the last closed trade these are the top five.

The SMT stock portfolio is up 33% if marked to market.
The SMT metals portfolio is up 28.5% if marked to market.
The SMT energy portfolio is down 1.9%.

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132 thoughts on “CHALLENGE UPDATE”

  1. Roy Batty

    My paper trade is up 65% so far, marked to market. But it’s outside the rules so isn’t “official”.

    Roy Batty October 1, 2017 at 1:34 pm
    Gary,
    Please put me down, in your paper competition, for 100% of portfolio in BTC @ $4,319.61. Just for giggles….and possibly a burrito.

    1. Gary Post author

      The rules are you have to email me your trade during market hours within a minute of making the trade. I don’t accept trades based on posts here on the blog as I don’t often even read the comments.

      1. Roy Batty

        That’s fine ….. I understand your rules. You did see the post immediately though and answered with:

        Gary Post author October 1, 2017 at 1:37 pm
        “You will need to buy GBTC during market hours to enter as I need to be able to verify trades.”

        GBTC had an 80% plus premium at the time so out of the question to go with your pick. BTC trades 24/7 on many exchanges and the price can be checked at anytime. But the price does normally vary slightly between exchanges.

        As an interesting side note ….. your blog post “A Lesson To Learn”, from September 15, was perfect timing as the bottom of the BTC crash at $3,038. From there BTC has increased 141%.

        1. Gary Post author

          What the correction did was convince everyone that bitcoin is indestructible and so now they will continue to hold and when the top does come they will view it as just another correction and then they will lose everything as the bubble deflates.

          I saw this exact same behavior as the housing bubble was topping, as oil was topping, and as tech stocks were topping.

          Remember the further the rubber band stretches to the upside the further it will drop to the downside. The magnitude of the bubble in bitcoin suggests that the collapse will lose 90% or more when it occurs.

          I’ll say it again, the only way to make money off the bubble is to practice greed control and at some point decide that you’ve made enough, get out, and stay out.

          1. Roy Batty

            Yes, and we also saw the exact same behavior when silver was topping. It’s a dangerous game we play. But even with the bad weekend call on silver and the subsequent agonizing drop while waiting for the dead cat bounce, that didn’t come, we still made damn good money.

            “Everyone”? Not everyone held through that weekend. A select few actually sold all their AGQ on Friday afternoon and argued, on your blog, that it was the smart thing to do. Unfortunately I wasn’t one of them.

          2. jyoung3759

            Gary,

            Nobody wants to listen believe me. I was a stock broker for the old Painewebber which was bought by UBS while I worked there back from late 1999-2003. I told everyone late 2000 that I thought the NASDAQ would fall to around 1260.00 based on on my analysis and research of bubbles and corrections and the very rubber band effect you are describing . Of course I was laughed out of the room. Guess what I was wrong as it finally bottomed out at 1108 so I was off 142 points. Shame on me. Also very few clients listened when I implored them to take profits in the likes of Lucent, Worldcom, and hundreds of other tech darling at the time as thy all thought they would come back. you wouldn’t believe how many people said I should have listened to you as the end of 2002 came rolling around. Guess the time is ripe for another fleecing. The old saying is always true pigs get slaughtered.

          3. Gary Post author

            So true. They always think that the fundamentals will prevent price from dropping, even though fundamentals have nothing to do with the final stages of the bubble. So they ignore the warning signs. During the final maturing stages of a bubble everyone becomes convinced that price will never go down, or that they will be smart enough to get out at the top.

            They never do….

  2. Bob

    Excellent job Troy. Doubled the money in four months. Could still double again twice in the next 8 months which would leave you at 800%.

    1. Gary Post author

      I think Troy is practicing greed control so he doesn’t get caught when the bubble pops.

    2. Troy

      Thanks Bob. Gary is right, I went 100% into GBTC at the September low thinking it would fall into the Aug. 4th gap up. I wanted to test my greed control in anticipation of the stock market bubble and eventual gold bubble. I thought 100% was enough for that 7 week trade. I am not sure GBTC’s premium will get back over 100% again even though Bitcoin itself could go up more.

      I think my next trade will be around the December FOMC meeting to get back into my favorite triple leveraged ETF. 🙂

      Troy

  4. MiSmart

    Hi Gary,

    As you said, in the past, we had crashes in SM, when we had the Tulip bubble, the housing bubble, the tech bubble, …

    Don’t you think the next bubble could be caused by the cryptocurrencies?

    1. Gary Post author

      Clearly the crypto currencies are exhibiting all the common signs of a mature bubble.

      Massive percentage increase in a short period of time.
      Stretched far above the long term moving averages.
      A flood of new issues hitting the market.
      Irrational sentiment that this time is different and price can never go down.

      1. jacob2

        Gary, perhaps you’ll be that last gold guru to hold out as many of your buddies have already bailed.
        When Smart Bitcoin Tracker comes up I’ll know that the last bear has capitulated. Ha!

        1. Gary Post author

          I think we have at least two more bubbles ahead of us. There’s no pressing urgency to chase the bitcoin bubble and risk getting caught when it implodes.

          3. brianlee

            Hi Gary,
            I just started following you rather recently so not sure if you went over this in a previous blog post but did you recently say that oil was very close to a daily top? It seems that many are getting extremely bullish on oil so perhaps it just keeps powering higher.

            Thanks for your thoughts,
            Brian

          4. Gary Post author

            It is getting very late in the current cycle. The best time to buy will be at the next ICL. It’s way too late to be chasing now.

      2. ocram

        Add to that that bitcoin is on the major news magazine cover in many countries (this is the main news mag in italy with the cover BIT BIT HURRA’).
        https://www.panorama.it/magazine/quelli-che-usano-bitcoin/
        Add that Bitcoin suggestions have surpassed penis enlargments as spam in my mail and in all other people I know.
        Add that in many tv shows they are now talking about Bitcoin .
        And I could continue with many other examples.
        I think Bitcoin will crash and when it will it will not be anymore a speculative way to earn money but a government way to control money.
        I think it is here to stay as a sort of giant paypal form of money backed by governments .

  6. Goild

    Yeap, of course is Saturday afternoon and I had my usual glass of wine and a delicious chocolate dissert
    Though due congratulations go here to Christian for his great trading skills.

  7. Americano

    Gary is one of the MANY smart & successful guys that aren’t buying Bitcoin.
    My dad STILL thinks the Beatles were a joke with crap music.
    It’s what makes a market.
    I think that THE thing that people who do “get” Bitcoin aren’t seeing YET is the amount of Forks that will occur in 2018 giving all Bitcoin Holders free coins in same amount as their Bitcoin holdings.
    I believe you will start hearing about this in MSM late spring early summer.
    I have Bitcoin @ $15K June 2018.
    $25K EOY 2018.
    Gold/Metals folks have an recognition advantage Bitcoin/crypto folks do not.
    A keen nose for scarcity. This is their edge should they wish to employ it.
    Unfair advantage vs crypto folks.

  8. JJHarmen

    Other than as a curiosity, I have no interest in Bitcoin. Is there a practical way to play it as a short? I don’t think it can be shorted but I confess I don’t know much about the cryptos. I think at some point the government will step in and either ban it or regulate it to death.

    1. Gary Post author

      If history is any indication, investors will start screaming for a rescue when the bubble pops and all of their life savings is lost. That’s when the government will step in, and either regulate it, or ban it.

      It’s too bad they never act proactively and stop these Ponzi schemes BEFORE they destroy people.

      1. Adrian

        I think that the problem with Cryptocurrencies is that somebody must be minning to keep the system working, but as Bitcoin cannot be nined after certain amount of Bitcoins, I do not understand how minners will spend electricity of their software just to keep Bitcoin alive.
        Different case is Ethereum that don’t have volume currency limit.

    2. Adrian

      I shorted Bitcoin in Plus500 with a CFD (Contract For Diference) with a 1:27 leverage, it didn’t work as stop loss were triggered, i shorted at 5600. Detail is that you cannot open a USA account on Plus500.
      Another that allows to short Bitcoin is eToro, there you can short without leverage, I have read you can open a eToro account from USA, but I’m not sure.

      1. isavage

        Haha Adrian 1:27 leveraged with plus500 !?!?

        I was a speed better many years and for the same killer leverage issues would see all my silver profits and capital get margin called to zero.

        Stopped that game long time ago. But do have dreams about how my account would have looked if long BTC!

        Problem is clear though. You make plenty of paper profits only to have account blow up with big Volatility unless you keep lots of cash for margin cushion. (cash that can also vaporise If the big one hits)

        I switched to 3x ETF’s and actually end up keeping what I make – What a novelty after spread betting!! 😁

    4. isavage

      Jj you can short GBTC I already made good money doing so on the last sell-off. But it’s expensive to short and more so if you’re not nimble enough! 😉

  9. JJHarmen

    Gary, the semis (SOX, SMH, SOXX) are really heating up, just like you said was going to happen. It sure looks like they are in a vertical phase, being up nearly 10% in the past month alone.
    You have said that the Nasdaq is going to hit 10 or 20 thousand. Where do see the SOX index when that happens? A double, a triple or more?

  10. Gary Post author

    10,000 on the NASDAQ is only about 30% away. So I would expect the semi’s would do a similar amount.

    1. vin

      Gary, that is interesting arithmetic.

      IMHO Nasdaq will have to rise by about 50% to reach 10k, and not 30%.

    2. Strike2

      NASDAQ is at 6764 so 10,000 is a gain of 10,000 / 6,764 or close to a 50% gain. Corresponds to SOX at 1900+.

      1. Gary Post author

        Correct. 47% gain to get to 10,000.

        Easily doable during a bubble as they often rally 100% or more during the final 6-8 months.

    3. jacob2

      Closing in on the end of our blow off top in large cap tech? Jeff Bezos sells 1.1 billion in Amazon stock.
      I take that as a warning the wind is starting to shift.

      1. vin

        Could be. But, many of these savvy investors don’t try to catch THE top or THE bottom.

        As, Gary has repeatedly pointed out that the last few months of the vertical phase can be rewarding for those who are willing to gamble. Please note that during this phase of the run, the SM is usually overpriced or even grossly overpriced. That is why there is usually a bust after the bubble.

        GL with your investments.

    1. Duuuuuude

      I don’t pay a lot of attention to insider selling unless its Equifax. There are many reasons insiders sell besides their company going down the tubes, such as paying taxes. There is only one reason however that you have insider buying.

      1. Gary Post author

        Exactly.

        Insider selling is mostly a worthless timing tool. Insider buying on the other hand is often a very good timing tool.

        Let’s keep those top calls coming. This is what is powering the market higher.

  12. roadrunner

    A question for all the bitcoin buyers/investors/speculators. Have you bought anything with your bitcoins? Do you know anyone who does consumer products/services with their bitcoins? Or is it all just speculstion

          1. Gary Post author

            LOL That didn’t stop the internet from rising into a bubble and popping and then taking 15 years to recover now did it?

          2. Gary Post author

            I’m not arguing that the block chain technology might be viable.

            I’m telling you it’s exhibiting signs of a mature bubble.

          3. Roy Batty

            Gary,

            You misunderstand. I was refuting your claim that “when the bubble pops no one will accept a bitcoin as payment.” I’m not saying there won’t be bitcoin crashes … hell, there was an 85% crash in 2013! It has already popped several times. It was an awesome buying opportunity and so was the last crash. You claimed it was undoubtedly the end of bitcoin at the exact bottom of the crash for heavens sake. You’d think that would humble your confidence in predicting the future of bitcoin. Did people stop using the internet after the dot com bubble crashed? Of course not. Most all of bitcoins are held by whales who purchased below $300….do you really think they’re worried? Also, when you say everyone will demand government action when bitcoin crashes, who is everyone? An extremely tiny segment of humanity owns even small amounts of bitcoin.

  13. ocram

    Gary,
    I just would like to know what you think about what’s going on all around the world:
    Saudi king arresting billionaire prince,dozens of others in cabinet breakdown
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-04/shocking-purge-saudi-king-arrests-billionaire-prince-bin-talal-others-anti-money-lau
    Trump will visit Pearl Harbour and various Asian countries.
    The entire hollywood circus is hit by pedophile morbe.
    Russia and China wants to trade WITHOUT the dollar as reserve currency.
    The media and Clinton’s accused Trump for Russian scandal,now it’s the reverse,it seems that the opposite is true.
    JFK dossier have suddenly reappeared
    There are continue voices of a Trump impeachment but ,at the same time,there is a sense that if this will occour, an even bigger hurricane will happen since he (Trump) will not fall without bringing the entire system with him.
    I don’t know what you think,but since Trump took the stage (and power) the whole world is shaking like a tree through an hurricane.
    In this environment we have 3 financial bubbles:
    1 bitcoin
    2 SM
    3 debt (the biggest of all)
    Am i alone in thinking that 2018 through 2020 will be years for the histroy books?

    1. Gary Post author

      There’s always something going on in the world, so the first part of your dialogue is nothing new.

      One of two things is happening. Either we are entering a bubble phase or we are starting another long-term secular bull market that still has 10 or 15 years to run.

      My money is on a bubble since I don’t think nature is going to reward years of irresponsible money printing with a new secular bull market.

    3. Adrian

      Oh not, I have the calculation that on 2019 we will have a top on SM, then the worst depression or even worst that 1929 depression was.

    1. Roy Batty

      Sorry, not “possible” but probable. Of course anything is possible, including an immediate end of the “ponzi scheme” called central banking.

      1. Gary Post author

        I don’t believe governments are going to allow just anyone to create their own currency. Moreover I don’t think governments are going to allow wealth to be effortlessly transferred out of countries.

        China has already stopped bitcoin sales and I expect other countries will follow suit.

        All governments throughout history want control of the printing press. Unless this time is somehow different, I expect this will never change and to think that we are going to somehow circumvent legal tender is foolish.

        1. Roy Batty

          Let me explain some things. When you say “I don’t believe governments are going to allow just anyone to create their own currency” it shows a lack of understanding even the basics of the subject. 1) bitcoin isn’t “anyone”s currency, it is a protocol in the same way the “internet” is a protocol or group of protocols. It is similar to email … no one owns email because it is an internet protocol. No one owns bitcoin and there is no central control. It cannot be extinguished by governments without the kill switch being toggled on the internet. 2) When you say “I don’t think governments are going to allow wealth to be effortlessly transferred out of countries” you’re missing the fact that it is presently happening 24/7 all over the world, including CHINA! Billions are being transferred “effortlessly”, inexpensively, safely, quickly, anonymously, and without third party involvement of any kind. No application, approval, homeland security notification, identity verification, or interference. Pier to pier. With only a smart phone or two. China hasn’t stopped bitcoin sales, although they’ve tried many times (over six if memory serves). You can buy and sell it on the street without any electronic device or by using exchanges based in other countries.

          “All governments throughout history want control of the printing press. Unless this time is somehow different, I expect this will never change and to think that we are going to somehow circumvent legal tender is foolish.” Strawman alert. I never said we are going to somehow circumvent legal tender. But all fiats eventually fail….unless this time is somehow different. The USD is probably a record holder and probably only because it’s the world’s reserve currency. Maybe you should ask the people of Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Argentina, and every other fiat currencied people in history if their governments were able to maintain control over their “printing presses”.

          1. Carl

            Roy, i don’t care if bitcoin reach 1 000 000$. i will never risk a penny of my portfolio in Bitcoin. I will make money somewhere else.

  15. Steffmeister

    My name is Bond, James Bond … how about the Bond market its multiple times the size of equities. It has been in a Bull for 30years +

    What would happen if the bond markets gets into trouble? What would the centralbankers do?

    Noone here is talking about it, I wonder why … far more important than crapto’s imo.

    1. Gary Post author

      Heck I said right after the elections that I thought the 30 year bull market in bonds had come to an end.

      But secular trends turn slowly in the bond market so the turn is going to take a while and the bear market may last almost as long as the bull that preceded it.

    2. Roy Batty

      It is in trouble and we know what they’re already doing. Creating “money” out of thin air and buying bonds with it. They’re also buying shares of private companies with the newly created “debt”. The only question is how long it can continue and what will other currencies such as gold and bitcoin be worth when the fat lady stops singing.

  16. victor

    ocram
    “There are continue voices of a Trump impeachment but ,at the same time,there is a sense that if this will occour, an even bigger hurricane will happen since he (Trump) will not fall without bringing the entire system with him.”
    The democrats can’t sleep with their defeat … One thing is to live with Trump presidency and another is to live with Trump impeachment. Democrat is still underestimate Trumps supporters that is still abt 50%.
    There’s NO any legitimate reasons to raise up motion for Trump impeachment, democrats are mad crazy looking for it and trying to feed public with this idea as much as they can…
    Are you crying for Clinton too …. ) :

    1. ocram

      The Trump election ended the world order that has been in place since the fall of communism in 1989.
      This is why things are getting wild and interesting,Gary thinks this is business as usual,I don’t think the same,we are witnessing an end of an era and the beginning of another.
      The world is not anymore ruled by one entity (US),there are other countries that wants a piece of the cake.
      Will this end in war? Will US allow other countries to gain power? Wii US itself split?
      We are in uncharted waters since we are into the two biggest bubbles this planet have ever seen,and they are not bitcoin or SM,they are WORLD POPULATION GROWTH since the beginning of 1900 (it makes looks the bitcoin bubble like a piece of cake) and the developed world DEBT BUBBLE.
      Of course the world will not end,but RADICAL changes will need in order to solve these huge problems,and things will get VERY bad before they turns for the better.

      1. Roy Batty

        Can you clarify something for me? Are you claiming that the election of The Donald will result in this new world order, and is a cause, or are you saying the election is merely one symptom of the change? If the second then what is the cause or causes?

        1. ocram

          The election is one symptom of the change,the change would have occourred the same,but for sure Trump election is the spark that will fire the whole scenario.
          The causes are that all things must pass and cycles occour.
          The added problem this time is that we have NEVER seen before western countries so endebted with so many people alive over the planet.

  17. Roy Batty

    Gary,

    Has your argument for a final bubble top in BTC changed from the typical reason, no more buyers left, to an unheard of cause such as government interference? Unless this time is somehow different, I suspect the final bubble top will coincide with no one left to buy bitcoin and not with an infinitesimally tiny sliver of people owning it.

  18. Americano

    Roy,
    There is NO price or development that is going to make Gary see it your way on Bitcoin. Not gonna happen.
    Bitcoin is tiny. Just about 1.5% of gold market.
    What if it gets 5% or Bitcoin $25K? That still leaves 95% of the gold market wondering if gold will break $1400 in 2020.
    It’s just not his thing.

    1. Roy Batty

      Gary is probably a genius. I’ve seen him wake up and change his mind many times over the years. Like all of us he won’t see things until he’s ready to see them. That’s how humans function for some reason. Very smart people usually trust their instincts, or gut feelings, too much. Normally it serves them well but every so often it closes them off to deeper truths. That’s just my opinion though …. plus, I think other people are interested in the debate and are in the process of making up their minds. I value Garys’ insights and so would very much like him to be involved in this once in a millennium bull market.

        1. Carl

          Everyday, i miss thousands of stock moves. Bitcoin is just one of them. I will never take the risk of buying the top when there is plenty of opportunity. To me it is just a chart, i do not have any interest in fundamentals. I could risk my portfolio by buying highly leveraged stock any day with less risk(stock history/easier technical analysis) and much greater gain than bitcoin, but i don’t because my hard earned money is not something that i throw in a casino.

          1. Roy Batty

            Who in their right mind would knowingly “buy the top” of anything? If you’re following Garys’ recommendations you are definitely gambling, whether you realize it or not. He isn’t a long term investor, at least not in his virtual portfolios. Personally I don’t have more than 10% of net worth in high speculation type plays. But my speculative plays are what puts most of the profits into my years.

  19. dboz

    I am planning on playing the next metals bounce in the short term, then turn to shorting them and probably oil.

    Yes, I dropped the ball on the contest as I could not get a trade in during regular hours one Friday. I got busy at work and got slammed on my position. I got disgusted and stubborn and just said to screw it for now (short term mistake). I have until the end of June for things to work out. Patience is required if you want to make the big money. You have to let the trade work. I am pretty sure I learned that here. And this way it’s easier for Gary and saves a bunch of headaches as I was churning through trades anyway.

    Nice job though for someone to double their money in 5 months. That is a good clip!

  20. Bob

    Dboz,
    You, Adrian and I have made the list throughout. Daniel had a good month and looks like a regular now. Adrian’s been steadily climbing and is threatening both you and I. Last month Mike came out of nowhere, took the lead and is now nowhere to be seen. And now Troy comes out of nowhere and grabs the lead. Still lots of play here before the fat lady sings.
    I’m looking forward to finally getting to gold’s ICL to play the upside. Hope the call’s right at the time. SOXL has treated me well over the last while. Should have had more in that one.

    1. MikeD

      I’m still here if you are referring to me. My portfolio is up 35%. I have a few trades on my mind but they take time to unfold.

  21. bginvestor

    So, someone please tell me the story of PED. Did he get kicked out? Or was he not getting enough love and left?

    Seems like Christian is trying to be alpha right now ….

    2. Gary Post author

      I reinstated pedestrian several weeks ago, but I doubt if he will be back. He hasn’t gotten any calls correct in a long time and it’s usually easier to just disappear than admit you were wrong.

    3. Christian

      Christian is just trying to give SOUND trading advice WHICH HE DOES and doesn’t give a flying hoot about the likes of Pedestrian and any other moron that pollutes this blog with their nonsense 🙂

    1. Gary Post author

      Gold is in the declining phase of an intermediate cycle. Hence the surprises will be to the downside.

      The stock market is in the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle, so the surprises will be to the upside.

      1. Gary Post author

        The yen has just broken through a major support zone. It’s not unreasonable to expect a retest of the January 3 low before this intermediate decline is done.

        1. alvinheart

          Gary, it seems doubtful the Yen could reach the Jan. 3 low by early December, which might mean that Gold might not bottom in December but early next year.

          1. Gary Post author

            I expect the dollar will top, the euro and yen will bottom, and gold will bottom during the first part of December, maybe on the 13th when the Fed raises rates again.

      2. vin

        Hi Gary, I am inclined to subscribe to your letter. I have two questions:
        1. Why auto-renewal?
        2. Do you accept paypal payments? I ask because I have never given cc info. to a merchant on the net (very old fashioned!)

        1. Gary Post author

          I will never use that piece of crap Paypal ever again.

          Any merchant should think twice before signing up with them.

          Auto renewal is pretty standard. You can cancel at anytime. But wait until one day before renewal so you don’t lose any time you pay for.

    2. Christian

      I am 99.9% sure that Gold will tag the 200WMA and if by any chance it breaks through with enough gusto, then the 62%FiB as well as the major trendline support is a likely target for an ICL/YCL.

      I have no doubt that if that occurs Sentiment will be at an extreme and that’s when you wanna pull the trigger 🙂 I will be buying a shit ton of Silver (long term) and Miners (swing only) if and when that occurs.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/tpu2tpe1/

      1. Christian

        Here’s the problem with most retail traders…

        They only see the WIGGLES and are constantly losing sight of the big picture :/ And then they bitch and moan when their bank account start to dwindle :/

  27. Steffmeister

    be careful with BITCOIN going into 2018, it could go up to 10-12k, but then … just a hunch 😛

  28. THC

    BC already recovered and multiplied from a full crash + a semi crash. I’m not saying it won’t happen again sometime, of course it will, but why after 10-12k? Profit taking after hitting psychological barrier? For sure dips will be bought greedily.

    1. Gary Post author

      This is why I say almost no one will make any money off the bitcoin bubble. Every time a correction gets recovered it just further intensifies and rewards the bubble mentality. Traders become convinced that price can never go down and that every dip will be bought. One of the dips won’t be a dip it’ll be the beginning of the implosion but no one will recognize it until it’s dropped so far that all their profits are gone. And don’t forget the rubber band theory: The further price stretches away from the long term mean, the more violent the move is back in the other direction. Bitcoin is not going to defy the forces of regression.

      Anyone that is buying an asset that is 300% above its 200 day moving average is just begging to have their head handed to them when the parabola collapses.

      I can guarantee you, this time is not going to be different.

      1. Roy Batty

        The same can be said for any bubble. Also, I don’t see anyone recommending the purchase of bitcoins at this price. People are no doubt buying here but they’re obviously buying from people who are SELLING here.

          2. Gary Post author

            There has been no official entry.

            You must email me a trade within 1 minute of placing it so I can verify.

            I don’t often read the comments here on the blog. Nothing here counts as an official entry.

          3. Roy Batty

            I know it’s not official … but it’s on the record anyway. The problem wasn’t that you didn’t see my entry but that you wouldn’t accept BTC. Within 3 minutes of my attempted entry you responded that you wanted me to go with GBTC and I decided not to.

  29. Gary Post author

    The current intermediate stock cycle is now on week 11. We’re going to at least make it to week 16 and the FOMC meeting before this cycle tops. So while there will be daily corrections and pullbacks along the way, the larger trend still has at least five weeks before topping and giving us a more significant pullback.

    Gold on the other hand while it will have rallies along the way, probably has 4 to 5 more weeks before it gives us a more significant bottom.

  31. m0ntana

    Gary,
    Looks like you were wrong with Full moon trade. Gold and silver both up.. Glad I held my USLV on Friday.

    1. Gary Post author

      Jesus I’ve been telling you that gold bottomed slightly early this time. You just keep holding that USLV all the way down into the ICL (A triple leveraged ETF during the declining phase of an intermediate cycle? What are you thinking?).

      I was the same way when I was a novice. I had to do the exact opposite of what my mentor told me. Eventually I lost enough money that I started paying attention.

      There are low percentage trades and high percentage trades. If one insists on taking low percentage trades then they will consistently lose money over time, even though you will occasionally win from time to time.

      If one only takes high percentage trades then you will consistently make money over time even though you will occasionally lose on a few trades.

      Classic retail/novice trader behavior is to take a lot of low percentage trades (fighting the intermediate trend). We see it constantly here on the blog. Traders try to pick a top in stocks over and over. In the meantime they try to pick a bottom over and over before the metals get into the timing band for the larger degree bottom and before sentiment reaches extremes.

      All I can do is try to teach you sound principles that have taken me years to learn, and my mentor years before that. The longer you resist learning them the longer it will be before you consistently make money in the markets.

  33. alvinheart

    It sure looks like the Yen and Euro want to go lower, which could happen anything in the next five days or so. So, playing the upside to Gold here is akin to playing hot potato. The music will stop, maybe even overnight when you won’t be able to get out so cleanly.

  34. Christian

    DUST — I hit my trailing stop-loss. I’m out with a small gain but nothing to rave about.. I’m seeing major divergence on the day chart but the 15/30min chart is extremely oversold. A bounce up and a re-test of the triangle trendline is in the cards.

    ON THE FLIP SIDE — ERX is killing it!

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