388 thoughts on “ANALYSIS STILL ON TRACK

  1. primetime

    Christian,

    I appreciated your soapbox rantings over the weekend, even if they were totally wrong. I continue to hold energy (oil and natty), coffee, metals, and tqqq, per the hosts advice.
    Good Day!

  2. Jimsee

    objectively looking at price on gold – 1315 is doable – off the 1263 dbl-bottom pattern – no way no how say the bears…i don’t know but am open to the idea if we break 1285 today/tomorrow.

  3. Don

    Surprising silver action today. Perhaps the sell down on Friday was designed to shake out weak hands. I won’t get to enthused until it clears the 17.30 level.

    1. Lenapowich

      I have lost track of how many times we have seen gold take off and then it turns into a ‘rug pull’ situation. The miners are moving up but they could drop like a stone in a few minutes. Maybe this time it will be different. I hope so.

    1. jyoung3759

      You are a funny guy. Only people burning here are those who try to hold on to their bullish feelings. Bulls at this point will be trapped again. This is meant as a shake out of the bears to push lower not higher. I do like the video and the movie but this is trading and you need to learn to leave your emotions out of this muhaha. Remember the judge was ready to throw them all out for showing their emotions because that had no place in his courtroom and it has no place in trading. Enjoy your day.

  4. Christian

    DUST — I hit my trailing stop-loss. I’m out with a small gain but nothing to rave about.. I’m seeing major divergence on the day chart but the 15/30min chart is extremely oversold. A bounce up and a re-test of the triangle trendline is in the cards.

    ON THE FLIP SIDE — ERX is killing it!

  5. Gary Post author

    Remember what I’ve said about the metals. Take everything with a grain of salt.

    The banksters are having a great time fleecing both bulls and bears.

      1. Gary Post author

        During the declining phase of an intermediate cycle price doesn’t usually stay overbought very long before heading back down. The miners are already nearing overbought.

        This is a classic example of why it’s so hard to make money on the short side. The counter trend rallies are very convincing and sooner or later one of them turns out to be the bottom. If you don’t time it correctly you watch all of your profits quickly go up in smoke.

        I doubt this is a more lasting bottom as we haven’t had a bloodbath phase yet and gold hasn’t completed an ABC correction, but I wouldn’t want to hang onto shorts right now.

  6. Jimsee

    I rebot /gc puts and dumped them friday AM, hedged the remaining over the weekend by converting to spreads – have cut today’s loss on /gc puts by 50%. long jnug from 17.5, long a bunch of miners since BIRTH,lol. Will cover the spread shorts on 50% cut in their prices from Friday leaving net long /gc PUTS for DEC.

    1. Nada

      Gotcha. I remember joking with you on the subject a few days ago is all. Anyway, lets see what we get over the next few days.

      Trump arrives in SK on Tuesday – Thats when Kim Jong Un will conduct his missile test. Once in a lifetime opportunity and I can assure you our boy Kim will not waste.

  7. Jimsee

    Nada – Nov 9-nov18 is a ‘sharp decline’ hi probability period imo for gold. if it gets hi enuff the 1260 can hold though – price is always negotiable – thank god.

    1. Nada

      I am not sure of his timeframe, but read he arrives on Tuesday. I have heard rumors that he may visit DMZ (even though it was stated he would not).

      I tell you this.. If Kim Jong Un does nothing, then we know he was a joke all along. Not to use an opportunity like this would be a waste of a lifetime.

      1. Gary Post author

        Do you really think he would risk the total annihilation of his country to take a shot at the president?

        Seriously has all common sense left the human race?

        There was never going to be a war with SK. I’ve been telling you that all along and so has the stock market.

        1. Nada

          Come on Gary, what are you talking about? I am referring to a missile test like I said last week. Of course I do not believe he is going to try to attack SK. I have stated over 10 times on this blog that there will never be a war in the region due to population density.

  8. Gary Post author

    The markets have long since realized these are nothing more than bluffs to protect his hold on his country.

    Countries that have nukes don’t get invaded.

    Kim is just making sure he doesn’t follow in the footsteps of Saddam Hussein. But he’s never going to start a war that he can’t win or survive.

        1. Nada

          Europe is being ran over and the entire demographics have been forever changed. If that is not an invasion, then I do not know what is. Not all invasions require shots to be fired.

          1. tricke2010

            @ Nada
            You are absolutely right about that Europe within 2/3 decades been taken over by the Fucking Islam or a civil war one way or the other.

          2. vin

            It is not just Europe. If some urgent steps aren’t taken, it is going to be the whole world! India? Thailand? Event Southern Philippine.

            What is not comprehensible is that China supports them? They seem to be sure that China will not be affected by them? What are they missing? They should read history.

            BTW, Canada is following the footsteps of Europe as well.

          1. Gary Post author

            One doesn’t use cycles to call tops. Cycles are used to call bottoms.

            I was expecting a pullback based on the major resistance zone at $55.

            But I was only looking for a temporary pullback. As I’ve been saying for months this intermediate cycle is going to at least reach 60-62 before topping. If the middle east starts to unravel then it could go higher still.

    1. ziasDad

      agreed.

      US gave Qaddafi its word that if you give up your nukes, we’ll leave you alone. He gave up his nuke and WMD programs. So how did that work out for Qaddafi and Libya, the country with the highest standard of living in Africa? We’ll let’s see, a few years later the US supports Libyan rebels with bombs and weapons, Qaddafi gets sodomized with a bayonet and then killed, and Libya is now a failed state where they sell slaves in open markets. So much for giving up your nukes, and many thanks to the US keeping its word.

  9. primetime

    Saudi Arabia and Iran is the war to watch according to Drudge. It is having effect on oil as may affect the entire Middle East. Possibly gold. May be time to get the head out of the charts and look around.

    1. Nada

      I well aware of the tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

      First Lebanon’s pro-Saudi Prime Minister resigns amidst fears of an Iranian backed assassination plot. Then Saudi’s intercept a ballistic missile apparently fired from Yemen near Riyadh’s international airport and call it an act of war. Then news of an anti-corruption crackdown being compared to a counter-coup or the “night of the long knives” sees something like eleven Saudi princes including Prince Alwaleed bin Talal , a frequent CNBC guest and one of the largest holders of companies like Twitter and CitiGroup along with others like Apple and numerous officials either detained or removed from power, in what is being called a power grab by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Then a helicopter crash near the Saudi/ Yemen border killing 8 Saudi officials including Crown Prince Mansour bin-Muqrin, deputy Emir of Asir province.

      How about that, did I look around enough?

      1. primetime

        Impressive and thanks for the summary. Definitely sounds like a sh_t storm. But no need to be defensive, it was not directed at you but just in generalization.

        But I understand, I am not in the “in crowd” on this blog.

        1. Nada

          Sorry, maybe translation got mixed a bit. I am not in the “in crowd” either, so no harm. If it is true you have coffee with Ped, tell him I said hi. I totally understand why he no longer posts here, as I don’t believe his week ban was warranted for bringing up the two people that were attacking him, non stop.

          1. Gary Post author

            Ped promised he would tone it down. It lasted for about a week and a half and then he started all over again.

            The site has become much more friendly since he left. He has been reinstated and can return whenever he wants, but he’s going to have to behave. I like the friendlier site much better.

          2. Christian

            And I completely disagree with you regarding Ped Nada.

            This site has indeed become much friendlier despite the occasional drop-in from Harvey Weinstein (aka, Primetime) whose obsession with me is rather disturbing :/

          3. Robert

            Yup I am back here as well because I noticed alot of the arguing and negativity has left. And I do not see Zkot anymore so im glad for that

          4. primetime

            Christian,
            For some reason if I do not post, all of a sudden I will see you mention my name out of nowhere?

          5. Gary Post author

            Primetime,
            Like I said, pedestrian was reactivated several weeks ago. He can come back anytime he likes as long as he behaves.

  10. victor

    There’s a war between me and my daughter cat…, yesterday I pushed him out of my way with my leg. This morning I smell strange on my computer chair it appears he pee at night at my chair and my pants on the sofa, what a bastard…

  11. Anthonyo

    The NK situation is one, but the real risk is a new war against Iran regime by a coalition headed officially by Saudi and unofficially by US Egypt and Israel(logistics, air cover, and intelligence support)… See it happen in a screen near you.

    They’re going to go after both NK and Iran, but it seems Iran first.

    If it happens faster rather than slower, it could derail gold’s bottoming cold in its track and be the force majeur for a sharp rally in gold instead…….Stocks will rally, after falling initially.

    Today’s action in gold and silver and oil is clearly due to what happened Saturday in Saudi, Iranian missile.
    PM Harriri of Lebanon resigning in fear of his life of assassination by Iran regime, he has defected to Saudi Arabia over the weekend. This all spells the coming huge war.

      1. Anthonyo

        👍👍👍
        It is so written; Trump’s visit to Saudi sealed the deal.
        We are going back to 100% support for Saudis against Iran regime(Obama had it backward), Trump’s mode is let them do it with our support, let them pay for it in money and arms(bought from us), we and of course Israel will give support in everyway we can, Yemen’s blockade by sea could be a first step in showing Iran regime their resolve…

        1. Jimsee

          This constant war in the ME – partnering with the worst of the worst (pedophiles, murderers, etc…) for political/military/monetary gain will end the US empire I’d guess. Better for all of us if it happens sooner than later so we get back to being a Country versus an Empire.

          1. Anthonyo

            Iran regime mullahs are even worse, all of what you said and more…they are the main bankers and arm providers and sponsors to most terrorism in the region…they are hell bent on taking over the middle east with their murderous ideology and “wipe Israel off the map” is their official reason for being….meanwhile Iranian people who are one of the brightest, creative, and educated people in that region are suffering under this religious dictatorship …….You use what you have where you have to combat and confront your enemies………Saudi is trying to clean its image exactly because of what you mentioned right now……..It’s not all for money power; you have a violent terrorist regime in Iran which is a menace to the regional integrity and independence of its neighbors as well as a menace to its own people……………As the only super power whose mantra since its inception 215 years ago has been “we will support freedom and democracy anywhere in the globe”, US cannot take the easy road and turn its back on what’s going on over there……………..We have a responsibility to act if we are to retain our leadership status in the world…………….

          2. Jimsee

            Maybe Anthony – but the US has lost all credibility in the ME – the CIA/MI6 takedown of an Iranian democratically elected Prime Minister then supporting the thug Shah – ughhh. We effectively laid the groundwork for revolution and are responsible for the outcome. We started the Mujahadeen (sp?) financing/training for Empire. We created ISIS whether intentionally or by sheer stupidity with the IRAQ war. Please just walk away from the ME (which we *never* needed imo) to start the healing.

            I do not do not believe we have any reason to be there outside of foreign entanglements in trying to run an empire.

            If you stand to profit (military/intel/energy) then I suppose the deaths of potentially millions means little to attain your end. Iran will not go down IMO without triggering a far larger war – just look at the map and consider how we have betrayed all our partners for decades now when convenient. We will betray them again in a heartbeat and them US – time to end this madness NOW imo.

          3. Anthonyo

            Points taken Jimsee….I hear you….Overthrowing Mossadegh was a mistake and a half, but look at the modernization and development which The Shah accomplished in less than 30 years in 60s and 70s until the Islamist mullahs trained by European countries intelligent services were prodded by the Godfather of Islamism zbigniew brezinski and Jimmy Carter to take over in Iran…….It’s time to make that wrong right again over there…………Just another point of view.

        2. Jimsee

          Anthony – thanks for the europe-Islamist link – I’ll look in to that – not familiar with that at all. Not surprising though.

          Yah – Brezinski – what a f’n genius move all that Islam crap was – he once opined that Islam was so divided it could never represent a real threatm so why not use them as attack dogs – lol – so let’s spend 40 years financing Salafists!

        3. RTTPD

          Provided the Russians help them, there’s not a chance in hell the Saudis can beat Iran, even with our and Israel’s help.

          The Saudis can barely pump their own oil out of the ground without our help.

          1. Nada

            “Provided the Russians help them, there’s not a chance in hell the Saudis can beat Iran,”

            Are you kidding me? That statement alone, quickly clears up the fact that you have no understanding of the region. Saudis and Russians would never work together, they have very poor relations. The Russians support the Iranians.

            The Saudis are backed by the US and that’s all you need to know. Iran would fold like a cheap suit, just like Iraq did when faced with US military weaponry.

          2. Nada

            Nevermind, I read your statement incorrectly. I thought you implied a Russian pact with S.A., but you were referencing Iran.

            The conclusion would be the same. Any proxy war faught between US and Russia would have the same outcome as described before. Russia spends maybe 10% of what the US does on military.

            Besides, Russia would love a war so they could potentially turn a profit for once on their oil reserves.

          3. RTTPD

            The conclusion would be the same. Any proxy war faught between US and Russia would have the same outcome as described before. Russia spends maybe 10% of what the US does on military.

            The US just lost a proxy war to Iran/Russia in Syria. There’s a high probability the sovereign government in Syria will ask the US to remove it’s military forces from the country in the not to distant future, as they are uninvited occupiers.

  12. AT

    Analysis still on track, perhaps except Gold …

    Can be that last week Gold low was the resembles of the ICL, and Gold moving up from here? … Gold and Miners moved up strong today

  13. Gary Post author

    Ok that’s enough. I tried just deleting both of you two’s stupid posts. But you don’t seem to be getting the hint.

    So both of you can take a break for a week.

  14. espresso

    Gary, I’ve read your blog off and on for a while now. Congrats on a terrific couple of years, esp. going all the way back to the 7 year low in gold.

    My your crystal ball continue with clarity for the next few years, at least.

  15. Gary Post author

    Folks if I can manage to keep it civil despite all the harassment and abuse leveled at me almost daily then all of you can as well. If you can’t then go somewhere else.

    1. BeachandBiscuits

      Agree. Please be ruthless in blocking the haters Gary. I’ve seen some sites destroyed or almost destroyed by putting up with childishness too long…normal people just quietly drop off the site.

    2. Bob

      Thanks Gary, Christian has some interesting posts when I’m able to read them. It’s too bad he often wraps the sandwich in crap that I don’t want to go through to get to the meat; as it just causes me to lose focus on the good stuff he’s trying to say. Hopefully, he’ll stick to the good stuff in future and leave the personal stuff out. It has no place.

  16. Don

    I think there will be war but The US is running out of countries to drop bombs on so it will probably be someone new like Iran. When the US bombed NK back in the 50’s, the smart thing for NK would have been to surrender and then have the Americans rebuild everything for them.

  17. Anthonyo

    Avi sucks, I never understand his articles… it is like reading a statistics books… You can do anything you want with Statistics…..And he gets too microscopically close to the charts like dude pls breath…. Myopic EWT never helped anybody.

  18. vaknight

    Great calls Gary.
    Regarding posts about NK and the ME. For NK, I think the one scenario that is slightly plausible is an attempt to take out Kim with China/Russia backed general taking over, but that is a remote possibility given what can go wrong.

    In the ME, a new war is likely; what’s new. The Saudi – Iran regional fight always takes place through proxy wars. The US sells arms, everyone is happy. The upcoming proxy war is likely to be Israel vs Hizbollah in Lebanon. Last week, the US, Saudi, Israeli had under the radar meetings. The Lebanese prime minister resignation last night pulls the legitimacy rug from under Hizbollah as the government collapses. Egypt and the Saudis neutralized Hamas by having them agree that Palestinian authority take over Gaza. All of this opens the door for Israel to focus o attacking Hizbollah (pretext TBD) which is fighting in Syria and is not ready for any wars, but can be dangerous in a year or two as Iran is heavily present in Syria. This may take few months to materialize; till after the rainy snowy winter in Lebanon. So war is possible by spring and summer of 2018. The missile into Riyad last evening was an Iranian warning shot from Yemen; I know what you’re planning to do next summer.

    If my political analysis is as good as my market analysis, expect to see Israel and Hizbollah sharing falafel at the beach and the Saudis will be buying.

    1. Anthonyo

      God call Vaknight…..With Hamas neutered as you said….and with soon after Israel does the whipping Hezbollah and its snake mullah shill leader Nassrollah Iran stooge destroyed, the road to taking out Iran regime will be paved….

      The key to killing the octopus is to cut and kill its tantacles first. Toink.

      1. RTTPD

        Hezbollah is many times tougher than most give them credit. They throughly wupped the US-backed mercenaries in Syria, and they knocked the shit out of Israel’s ground forces in 2006 with 1960’s era wire-guided technology.

        I’d bet a nickel against a donut things don’t turn out the way you’ve outlined above.

          1. spectrum2105

            I agree, I’m in no big rush to jump into a trade early. Especially with a major resistance level coming up. I just want a good additional alternative to QQQ calls when the time is right.

          2. spectrum2105

            vin

            Nothing, I hold QQQ June options. Since semi’s have been outperforming QQQ I wanted to look at options for semi’s as well.

  19. spectrum2105

    BTW, I don’t know how you put up with it. My father would swing at us in the back seat of the station wagon with one hand on the steering wheel when we acted up like that.

  20. vin

    Gary, Thanks for an excellent call. Now that semis have climbed straight up for some time, is it time for a rest? Is it time to sell soxl? Or, there some more juice left?

  21. isavage

    Hi Gary
    Any of today’s strong moves in oil and metal’s change your expectations in the video?

    I have been very cautiously in agreement, but we are in potentially strong breakout start points for late cycle inflation trade with metal’s having strong seasonally tail wind.

    1. Gary Post author

      I went over in tonight’s subscriber report a scenario that everyone has overlooked, including myself. It doesn’t change the big picture but it might change the short term outlook over the next one or two weeks.

  22. jacob2

    End game Stagflation? Tax cuts, humongous deficts, Higher oil, inflation, higher interest rates, stagflation and eventual recession. Always early like my oil buys but think this is how it plays out.

    1. vin

      inflation? Looks like there is no price inflation. There are things I can buy to-day at a lower price (in dollar terms) than I could 20 years ago. Thank you China, Thailand, Bangladesh and what not.

      1. jacob2

        Although oil’s at the top of a trading range think we are at the very begining of a multi year bull in …..STUFF. Most of the internal lows already in for many commodities. Copper and oil hitting lead off everything else eventually follows.

          1. Gary Post author

            I would argue that we have massive inflation, but at the moment it’s focusing mostly in the stock market, healthcare sector, and education. Eventually it will also move into the commodity markets.

          2. vin

            I agree. Yet there is no (or hardly any) inflation in the price of consumer goods, usually referred to as price inflation. An ordinary person is mainly affected by the price inflation only. Other fancy stuff matters less.

  23. vin

    Goild, It seems that the $16 anchor for jnug is holding well.

    Looked like it was demolished but it didn’t happen. I still think it will happen before the end of the year. If it does it will be fast and brutal. I would expect a price of about $8.

    1. vin

      For sure. Gold is headed down no matter how one looks at it. Having said that, we all know that gold doesn’t follow any discipline and can spring up a surprise any time. It can prove Nada right and everyone else wrong.

      Yes, it doesn’t LOOK like gold is going anywhere for the time being. Gary thinks that it will take only a month or so for it to start rising. My buying time frame (at this moment) is more closer to the end of January or may be even later.

  24. Goild

    Vin,

    I am glad you are having fun here. Hopefully you are also making good money too.
    It has been quite busy around here so I am posting little.
    Hope you are right and Gold is not seeing the bottom.
    Enjoy!

    1. vin

      Hi Goild! I am up a lot (paper profit so far) on soxl and tqq. Tna and labu have been so so, and I missed out on indl … order did not get filled but for a few pennies.

      This is all my casino money, for fun. I also invest. My portfolio as a whole for 2017 has done reasonable well. Golds have been a drag and I have quite a few of them. I am a goldbug at heart. Numerically speaking, to-day’s economy doesn’t add up.

      But, you are right. I have fun. If Gary’s predictions turn out to be right I will do well. Yet, it is only a small part. I have other interests in life over and above investing.

  25. Gary Post author

    I think we may be in for some complicated market action soon as we near the 1350 mark in the semi’s.

    I’ve gone over it in detail in tonight’s report.

      1. vin

        I would suggest Gary should make his (exact writeup) predictions available on the board in a delayed fashion of his choosing. A few days? A week? Whatever he thinks is appropriate while being fair to his paying clients. Just to impress others of his ability to predict so accurately. It will be a great tool to reach public to subscribe. No?

    1. Gary Post author

      For heavens sake quit trading the miners. The sector is very difficult even for experienced professionals to trade successfully, then you throw in the fact that the sector is stuck in a basing pattern makes it even that much harder.

      At some point you have to quit slamming your head against the wall doing the same thing over and over.

    2. Nada

      @Lenapowich You might need to trade another asset class? First, the close is all the matters. Second, yesterday was a fairly large move in miners and gold. Neither of those assets did a back test of the 10ma after they broke above. Gold was a level skipper and when it does not do proper back tests, then it is reprimanded and must go back and gets the job done.

      You know PMs are frustrating. I suggest you learn to handle DD’s through positive association. Eat chocolate or something when the miners decide to take your account in DD. Soon you will learn to ENJOY DD.

      1. Lenapowich

        Nada and Gary, thanks for the advice. I am not trading the miners right now, just holding GDXJ that I am down about $1 per share. I just wish it would stop horsing around and go up on a sustained basis (like the SM).

        1. Gary Post author

          The sector is going to have to get past its intermediate cycle low before it will be ready to deliver a sustained upwards trending move.

          That means the countertrend moves in the euro and dollar need to finish. I think both may still have another month before they’re done. My guess is the December FOMC meeting where the Fed will raise rates again will be the trigger for the euro to bottom in the dollar to top.

        2. MagnuM

          Lena, wait until mid-December to rebuy miners. I covered my miner short this morning, might reload it if miners bounce here, but eventually I do plan to go long miners.

          Just not right now! LoL!

          1. Nada

            Who cares about fundamentals. The guy made a 200% return. I’ll take that over fundamentals any day. Do you think any of these moves in the SM are based on fundamentals?

            SPOILER ALERT
            No, they are not.

          2. MagnuM

            Wow, nice catch indeed.

            I’ve made 250% so far off trading crypto-stocks on the Venture since first starting in mid-September, but no one is going to believe me, so whatever, lol.

    1. Don

      Christian contributes and has good market sense whereas primetime is just looking to pick fights. It doesn’t surprise me that prime and pedestrian are coffee buddies.

      1. jacob2

        No leverage, but the commodity space is very cheap compared to everything else. FWIW have owned various oil shipping and industrial metals stocks for quite some time, and they have been treating me right. Bought my first gold stock today. A waiting game.

        1. vin

          I wish you good luck with your purchase. Yes I am thinking of getting in as I have sold hqu(tsx), soxl and tna to-day. But, I will wait and see for a few days. Though you are right that there are excellent bargains there.

    1. isavage

      Jacob

      Tell me what is happening with these shipping stocks. They have been obliterated! and now are putting in Stella moves!!

      Can you or anyone else advise further with some background info??

      1. jacob2

        No expert, short covering. When traders figured out that oil wasn’t going back to 45 they covered there long term shorts on the shippers and tankers. They are the ones that move oil and commodities. The shippers that moved the most had the biggest debt issues. The higher quality stuff moved not so much. Own many prior to yesterday and think the group is a buy.

        1. isavage

          Thank you Jacob. Your input is what keeps this blog sharp and interesting.

          What you spotted is something new and refreshing!
          I encourage everyone to add there own nuggets so we can all prosper and who ever it was up 200% in the challenge CONGRATS!!

          Regards!

  26. Don

    TLT has been showing surprising strength. Something is causing bond yields to drop in spite of the trend towards rising rates in countries like the US, UK, Canada, etc.

    1. Nada

      How many times are we going to have to go through this song and dance? I get it, you miss Christian. Are we going to see a post on the subject form someone new each and every day he is absent?

      I like Christian, Primetime and Pedestrian, but whats done is done. Gary is damn tolerant guy, so whatever they posted must have been pretty bad for him to ban them for a week.

      1. Don

        Nada, you can be a rather rude individual. I didn’t say I would “miss” Christian. I do recognize that he is right far more wrong and for that reason, his input is valuable. If you were to disappear for a while I wouldn’t have a thing to say about your absence.

        1. Nada

          LOL. I figured I would get into your feelings. Like I said, how many times are you going to bring it up? You posted back to back posts in regards to missing Christian, so yeah if you are going to act like a little school girl, I am going to having something to say 🙂

    2. Nada

      BTW, Christian is reading this right now. We all know he is. So have no worries, he will be back. Especially if he is right about gold – his arrogance will take precedence over his pride any day of the week 🙂

  27. mexican

    Hey Folks,
    This blog is starting to sound like the Johnny Carson show, never seen so much stupid bickering anywhere, folks this is an investor trading blog !Not a knock each other down blog or i said he said your wrong blog.

    GROW-UP OR GO TO A DIFFERENT BLOG!! Just tired of reading line after line of bullshit!!
    Be nice to read about markets conditions for a change! YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE.
    Gracias

    1. victor

      it’s not going to happen Mexican, those who don’t know what to say talking about others, or after trading 2-3yrs start teaching others…. Probably on subscription page is much better.

  28. Goild

    Isavage,

    I am holding 200 UVXY shares. This trade will work well, I think.
    The very first bounce will be awesome…
    From about $10-$15 to about $50 bucks.
    Get on board folks!

    1. isavage

      Hi Goild

      Well yesterday pre market it took off my short TVIX (less intrest to pay to UVXY) with in 3 cent of the days low.

      I’m currently short XIV and am looking to cover / close on pullback. I will also re-enter short TVIX if we continue higher in the indexs. 90% probability!

      I agree with Gary we could be in the start of a powerful runaway move “with no easy entry’s” so will not hesitate to cover XIV short.

      FYI I’m short XIV as it has the potential to go to zero in hyper Vol spike due to its governance rules. Where by being short TVIX it will not get closed you will be underwater for long time but eventually it would have a possibility of coming good.

      Something us metals and miners Traders know all about too well!!

  29. Steffmeister

    A depressing analysis for us Gold Bugs going into 2018 🙁 unfortunately it’s inline with Mother Natures own law The Big Fractal that I’ve been talking about for 2-3years now. Actions taken many decades ago is about to play out imo.

    A very difficult year coming for most assets, not just Gold !

    A share this view 100%:
    https://youtu.be/mc5rRMrTHmg?t=258

    Adjö och lycka till, vi höres sent 2018 🙂 för att summera läget!

    1. Steffmeister

      The centralbanks around the globe has the power to change the outcome, but they are in general not proactive, they only react to an upcoming problem and then take action.

      Look at the Bondmarket …

    2. Gary Post author

      At some point you are going to figure out that markets don’t move on mathematical fractals. They are driven by fundamentals and human emotions. That’s why the EW nonsense doesn’t work.

      If one could successfully trade the markets with math then LTCM never would have crashed.

      You’ll have a lot more success in the markets with a psychology degree than a math degree.

    1. Gary Post author

      This will be another one of those false rallies to get everyone bullish before the final leg down ahead of the FOMC meeting.

      The metals are whipsawing right now. That’s a difficult environment to make money in.

  30. Goild

    Three and half weeks ago I started to built a trade on JNUG…
    Well it did not go well.
    Day trading ANT style is good and thanks to it I am positive for the past month but under performing past months.
    The point is one must be very careful with swing trades. They are not easy.
    Making changes to the ‘system’ has consequences.

  31. Bluebellkid

    RLOG snapping back within upper band. I wonder if the “new leader” had enough trading experience to sell yesterday when it was way out of the upper band and way overbought.

    1. Nada

      Yes long road ahead Vin. I am mostly joking on golds price action this morning, as I know its built for frustration. However, the chart posted on Friday’s close clearly showed gold was behaving fine. My viewpoint is we rally INTO fomc, not after . The gap fill is my target, as it has been for sometime now when 99.9% of the folks here (and around the world) are super bearish.

      1. vin

        Nada, Thank you for the explanation. I have to learn a lot from people like you and Gary.

        Understood. Yet the rise in gold/golds feels good, eve if it is temporary.

      1. Gary Post author

        You’re kidding right?

        I called the bottom last December within a couple of days. I called the top in June within a few dollars. The bottom in July after the swing and the top in Sept within pennies. I also warned that the rally in Oct. would be left translated and we entered shorts at almost the exact top.

        I haven’t seen anyone come even vaguely close to my calls in the metals. The metals portfolio is proving it. Up 190% in less than 2 years. And that’s even with last years flub when I got too greedy and tried to catch a short term long trade too late in the intermediate cycle.

        1. Nada

          LOL, I knew that was coming 🙂 You’re doing fine Gary, I am giving you a hard time. Make no mistake, gold has a lot of obstacles. I see differently due to where I see USDJPY price action.

        2. vin

          Gary, Is the stalling in SM a temporary? For your scenario of a vertical rise it needs to move a bit faster No? 50% rise in less than 8 months! Not in a stock but in an index?

          At the moment it doesn’t look that great. Glad that I sold some.

          1. vin

            It is so tempting to subscribe at this juncture specially now that I feel that nasdaq WILL NOT make it to 10k (forget about 20k) by 2018 June.

            Subscribing at this juncture can turn out to be a superb investment. I will wait because of the points I raised earlier, namely, auto renewal and providing cc info. on the net. For the time being I will wait and see since I am left with only two 3x namely tqqq and labu (in fact tqqq is covered with a written call option). However, I thank you for your efforts and kindness.

          2. Nada

            Hey Vin, in regards to your statements about CC. If its a true credit card, then what is there to be afraid of? 100% protection with any CC company.

            I highly recommend that if anyone is using a debit card to quit doing so as quickly as possible. Exposing your bank accounts is the nuttiest thing you can do. Try to get a charge reverted from your debit card. You will need a police report and about a month of time before the banks refund.

            A credit card company will INSTANTLY refund you any unauthorized charges. I can speak CC’s all day long so if you need to know about a card with the best rewards for a specific category, just let me know. I personally have about 35 and only let 1 report a balance of less than 10% a month – for max FICO scores purposes.

          3. vin

            Thanks Nada. What you say is correct. In fact I have never lost any money with any credit card and I have more than one. They do respond except for the wait when one calls them, even that depends on the issuer.

            First, I don’t like hassles, including calling the cc compay. Secondly, I am an old fashioned individual and I avoid providing personal info as much as possible, particularly on the net. I fully understand that every tom dick and harry knows everything about me. I still in principle don’t like to provide info. on me.

            Thirdly, I find paypal an excellent method of transaction. Gary does not like paypal. And, I won’t be surprised that they are not great for small businesses but they are a bit more secure for the consumer. To be fair, I have heard others complain about paypal, but I haven’t had an issue with them so far.

            At this point I will wait and see. Thanks for your input. Regards.

          4. Nada

            Vin, couple of things to keep in mind. Discover, American Express and Citi offer chat online so you do not have to make calls. If you are looking for the best customer support over the phone, then hands down Discover is the winner. All their agents are based out of the US and they are very quick to answer.

            If inclined, check out the Discover IT. It is a 5% cash back rewards card on categories that rotate every quarter. Also, companies such as Citi and BoFA offer virtual credit card numbers so you can avoid some of the pitfalls you referenced.

            I have a card for each category of spend and then I have overkill because of some rewards churning in the days. I never close an account, I usually have some reoccurring bill setup on all of them to ensure the account get some love. I probably need to close out some, but even if you do close, the trade line will report for 10 years before dropping off.

            In a nut shell, here are some of the best rewards cards.

            Gas/Groceries: American Express BCP. Nets you 6% cash rewards on up 6k spend a year. So basically I receive $360 free groceries a year by using this card at the grocery store.

            Bills: Citi DoubleCash. 2% card on all purchases, so I use it for larger bills like insurance and electric.

            Entertainment: Citi Prestige – 3x points

            Travel: Chase CSP or Citi Prestige. 2x rewards on Hotels and Prestige offers 250 a year annual airline credit.

            Discover IT and Chase Freedom for 5% cash back categories. You can use Chase Freedom paired with the Chase CSP. Take the points from Freedom and move the Chase CSP for ultimate reward points.

            Also now that Chase and SPG have merged, a little trick is to use your Amex SGP for flights/hotels and transfer them to Marriott (need Chase Marriott card) as the SGP points are 3 to 1 in value vs Marriott points. If you shop at Amazon a lot, then the Chase Amazon Rewards card nets you 5% on all spend – cash back. Sorry, I warned you.. I can talk all day about credit cards and rewards 🙂

          5. vin

            Thanks Nada. I have none of these cards. I will look into them. I don’t pay any annual fee for any of my cards, even a prestigious one (as a part of a deal with the bank). And, I do get a few hundred dollars cash back in total, and one of my cards provides emergency road service similar to AAA, for free.

  32. bluelagoon

    Looks like today may be the DCH for crude. We are also potentially heading to another DCH for gold though must tread carefully given weak seasonal period for gold.

    1. Gary Post author

      You are ignoring the Rubber Band Theory. The further price stretches above the mean the more violent and aggressive the move back in the other direction will be. When the Bitcoin bubble pops it’s going to lose 90% or more of its value.

      1. Nada

        Same goes with SM. They both have lost their marbles. However, I think your predictions on nasdaq are more representative for bitcoin.

        With that said, exuberance can go further than anyone can imagine 🙂

        1. Americano

          I take Gary’s thoughts on NASDAQ & use for Bitcoin 100%
          The Saudi guys that got their bank accounts frozen? Couldn’t have done that with Bitcoin. This laid a marker down. Bitcoin for bugout. Most seizure resistant wealth store in world – THATS why Dimon hates it. It’s a knife to JPMs judgement resistant trust services world wide.
          Next year holding JUST one Bitcoin is gonna be seen as savvy. Only 1800 made per day. Only 900 per day in 2020. Cap 21 million almost 17 million created this far – who knows how many lost.
          Actuarial Catnip.
          Bitcoin taking JUST 5% gold market = $25K

          Only typing this much cuz I was frustrated as everyone with gold trading

      2. THC

        Gary, i’ve been telling you all summer that BC will beat NQ in the race for 10K.
        Looks like i might be right, but still no cigar.
        BC already had at least one major crash and more will follow, obviously, but do you seriously believe that it will loose 90% of its value? Traders will be over it like vultures on a carcass.
        I’m thinkink that Americano might not be so far off in his predictions for 2018.

        1. Gary Post author

          Maybe it will but that doesn’t change the fact that its a bubble. The further the bubble goes the further the crash will be when it comes.

          Just like every bubble in history the true believers are trying to convince themselves that this time is different.

          Human emotions never change. That’s why it’s never different.

          1. Gary Post author

            Just like every bubble in history almost no one will ultimately make any money because everyone will end up holding too long and they will get caught when one of the corrections turns out to be the beginning of the crash.

            You have to be able to control greed to make money off a bubble, and unfortunately almost no one is able to do that during a bubble.

    1. Gary Post author

      I haven’t been wrong in a long time. The only reason I missed last year was I tried to place a long trade too late in the intermediate cycle. I was only looking for a 3-5 day trade but gold topped very quickly and caught me. Then our stops were run in the middle of the night when we couldn’t get out. We got out during the next rally.

      We’ve long since recovered and the metal portfolio is higher now than it was at the top of the baby bull.

  33. Robert

    It looks like oil will top out any day now. For gold maybe 1300 maximum but it too could already be topping out. Its looking like December as Gary says for a bottom in metals

  34. jyoung3759

    For all those seemingly excited about Gold. It rallied 46 points from bottom to peak back in the first part of October over 6-7 days. So far since the low on 10/27 its rallied 8 days for a measly 23.8 points to todays peak at 1288. Not exactly a stampede. Calling for a bottom here is premature in my opinion just looking at the facts any demand is certainly weaker than stronger.

    1. Nada

      Yes I remember the stern warning from a few days ago:

      “Bulls at this point will be trapped again. This is meant as a shake out of the bears to push lower not higher.”

      Gold move all depends on what USDJPY and Dixie decide to do. I have both rolling over, but it certainly is not written in stone. BTW, gold has to do back tests. It simply can not go straight to moon without its house in order, so this morning it was a level skipper and that must be addressed.

  35. jacob2

    Agree, that said the market leaders of the new bull are on (well) on there way: KL, Novo, FNV, IAG. No leverage but not a bad time to buy a few. Much rather start picking up a few of these then a leveraged sm etf. Just my opinion.

  36. jyoung3759

    Stern warning. That’s hilarious. These are merely one man’s observations. Take it for what you will. As Gary has pointed out until the Dollar peaks overall gold will continue to decline. My point is that its movement continues to suggest that scenario and not the scenario that someone suggested with a chart the the miners had made a bottom because of tic above the previous candle. In order for the intermediate cycle low to be confirmed Gold must close above 1298.80. Personally nobody really knows what will happen I am just pointing out what i see. Lets see how she rolls into the close which is the action that really counts.

  37. TraderPete

    I concur that gold hasn’t reached its ICL. I agree with Gary’s PMs calls for lower prices. I think gold could get down to 1209 or lower before the secular bull market in gold resumes; and early December is the most likely time frame.

    1. Nada

      Boy oh boy, if I am right about gold (which remains to be seen), do you know what it means? 99.9% of this blog will have to disappear. We all know when folks get the call wrong they run away and hide.

      Bullish Gold:
      Nada

      Bearish Gold:
      EVERYONE else on blog.

  38. Goild

    Nada,

    Get it right,

    Some of us a very bullish on gold.
    But first we need to let it sink, as it should, before it takes off.
    It will sink after the next FOMC meeting and then we will pick up the riches.
    That will be really the time to get in.

  39. Goild

    Nada,

    Good, we shall see pretty soon 🙂
    By the way, JNUG tagged $14.70. The manipulators aren’t fools. Their business is to make money out of fear and greed. Before they take gold up, they still have unfinished business on the down side. They need to run all the stops at about $14.50.

    1. Nada

      Lets get one thing straight. I have an assumption on what gold is going to do and its called a “prediction”, nothing more and worth even less. These comments that gold is going to do this or that are ludicrous. No one knows what gold is going to do, that you can take to the bank.

      1. Gary Post author

        We all trade based on the tools that we trust and have worked in the past. Cycles analysis says gold needs at least one more leg down before the ICL is finished.

        That’s what I’m basing my prediction on.

  40. allthatglitters

    JDST seemed to hold pretty firm today @ $59, knock on wood. If gold runs out of steam at yet another run to $1300, we all (or most of us) know which way it’s heading….

  41. Ragnar

    Agreed. Great update.
    But collapsing USD at the end? It is the best house in neighborhood right now. Euro rising? Euro is still in a declining long term trend since 2008.

  42. zkotpen

    Gary, Robert,

    “And I do not see Zkot anymore so im glad for that”

    Please do not mention my name again, Robert. There’s no need for it, as doing so is obviously snide.

    I come here less frequently, and when I do, I generally stick to Gary’s comments. This time, I did look for my name and saw it… entirely unnecessary!

    Don’t worry, Robert, it’s highly unlikely I will read any of your posts. I just happened to notice my name, quoted above, otherwise, I’d have missed it. You can react any way you like to any market you like and I will never comment. You can try your best to get people to share as much info as possible with you — I hope they tell you all they know, and I hope it’s useful and profitable to you.

    So just continue being “glad” as you say, but kindly keep my name out of your posts — a simple, request for civility.

    There’s no need for either of us to mention the other’s name on here again, ever. I believe that’s a fair and reasonable request.

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t really use targets other than putting the fib retracement’s on the chart as potential zones of support. Generally I just wait for a swing low before I start buying.

      1. Gary Post author

        We timed the top perfectly in the S&P, and only missed it by one day in the NASDAQ. And these are real-time calls, not the hindsight trading BS, or multiple alternate scenarios you get from most newsletters.

  43. isavage

    Nice work!

    i will buy a years subscription if you throw us blog followers a bone that i can buy the dip or profit from your current pullback expectations to pay for it.

  44. isavage

    Quite possibly Gary – think you could have a bunch of new subscribers from the blog followers if you were to offer a real time call today that gave them the money to buy. your profit at our risk : )

  45. isavage

    Pull back over already? Added to my short Vol positions pre market. ETH taking off at last from long consolidation. Overstock ripping on results over night

    1. Gary Post author

      The interventions usually occur ahead of FOMC meetings and political events. There is no risk letting the stock market correct right now, as there is plenty of time to rescue it before the next FOMC meeting on December 13.

    1. Gary Post author

      The level to watch is 1306. If gold goes above that then it will make a higher high. It’s not going to though, as it still needs to complete the ICL.

        1. Sassybabe

          Honey, you make your fair share of statements that smack of “certainty” that didn’t work out as you planned. Maybe have a glass of humility for breakfast. Have a nice day.

          1. Nada

            I make predictions based on analysis of currency pairs. I am not naive enough to believe I know what the market is going to do or not do.

            Example. I made a prediction that gold would gap fill before failed cycle and roll over into a ICL. It was a burrito bet. Not a certainty. Gary is in the business of saying outlandish crap to attract naive jokers like yourself.

          2. Gary Post author

            I make predictions based on sentiment and cycles.
            About 95% of the time gold has to complete at least an ABC correction for an ICL is finished. It hasn’t done that yet so I’m assuming we still have one more like down.

            And unlike most newsletter writers I make an actual real time call, not the alternate multiple scenarios, if this, then that type of crap you get from everyone else.

            If I have a losing trade then so be it, we get back to work and try to make back our losses.

  46. Sassybabe

    Every time SLV gets into a profitable position for me, it gets slammed . Over and over gain. Is that a bullish or bearish indication? Are they trying to shake people like me out?

  47. vin

    Everyone is waiting for the gold/golds to bottom except for Nada. No one wants to buy the poor thing.

    Even my friend Goild has become negative for the short term.

    I feel sorry for it (gold). So, I am going to buy some today. Amen!

  48. ras

    What pull back? Rotational market. DIS and CCJ moving along nicely. One has to take what the market is willing to give. DIS will be releasing earnings amc. Looks like the numbers likely will be good. A sharp spike tomorrow morning in DIS?

        1. vin

          I have held uranium for a looong time. Earlier this year I gave up and took losses. I used to hold the real stuff through the market “Uranium Participation Corp.” It trades on tsx, the symbol is U.

  49. JJHarmen

    Sell off is over, for now. It’s not very often the US market makers allow the rest of the world’s markets lead. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dow in the green by the end of the day. It’s not like we haven’t seen that happen before.
    The biotechs look like they have bottomed first.

    1. vin

      “The biotechs look like they have bottomed first.” ……. you made my day. You have a nice day as well.

      Do you think that the market is on such a short leash???? That is scary. It can’t end well.

    1. vin

      Good luck, Troy. jnug seems to be anchored at 16. One could have made a lot of money buying it below 16 and selling it above 16 over the last few weeks.

      Though I feel that it will break that barrier and drop. When it does the fall will be sudden and significant. I would say below 10 or even worse.

      1. Troy

        Thanks vin. I’m hoping to get significantly long JNUG in December based on Gary’s call that the ICL is still in front of us. I was guessing a bottom of $8-9 once this bear flag breaks lower, but knowing me I’ll start buying around 10-12.
        This trade now should be less 24 hours.

        1. vin

          Be careful. Gary has this habit of changing his mind at a short notice. I don’t how do his subscribers do. But, if you are not a subscriber you could be left out holding the bag.

          1. Troy

            Hey vin,

            Gary got his subscribers almost all out of the SM a few days back. The price of subscription is well worth it. I would rethink it.

          2. vin

            Troy, thanks for the input. I get similar vibes. It is nice to hear from someone who is a real subscriber. Did you act in time? Today is ugly for those in semis.

          3. Troy

            I did act almost real-time, I waited until closer to the end of the day to try and get a better price. I wasn’t too happy yesterday when TQQQ tagged 136, but I’m smiling today. It took me awhile to listen to Gary and follow his calls. I keep about 80% of my portfolio aligned to his calls and play the other 20% on my own. Sometimes it works in my favor and other times not, but at least 80% is following him.

  50. Nada

    What a beautiful site to see these markets selling. I can’t wait until volatility returns to the market. These unicorn and rainbows days are most annoying.

  51. Goild

    Well, gold is falling…
    This trading ANT has his hands tied now.
    Another pleasant trip to Asia is happening.
    I hope gold/miners will experience some more temporary pain so that they will be ripe to really flight to the moon by the end of December.
    The SM will be saved from developing a big crack before the Thanksgiving and SantaClaus rallies.
    The big crack, the very deep crack, Will come, I think, early in January.
    Have fun, make big bucks, and forget about any vertical SM move, ain’t happening.

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