60 thoughts on “SECULAR BULL STOCK MARKET?

  1. BeachandBiscuits

    Thanks Gary.

    On that long-term chart, the bubble of 1999-2000 is barely a blip and there were other big rises (94-95?).

    Couldn’t we still get a bubble top in the next year or so that, in 10-15 years would just look like another blip on that long-term chart?…or does this totally preclude having some sort of blow off top next year?

  2. Gary Post author

    Well we did get a sort of blow off top and crash in 87. It wasn’t the end of the bull market of course. The market just got a little ahead of itself and needed to cool off.

  3. spectrum2105

    This seems very convincing. Even if NAZ stays within the upper and lower boundaries of its long term log channel, on the linear chart there will be enormous run ups and substantial corrections that look like bubbles.

    I’m 80 / 20 convinced at this point that we won’t see NAZ break out of the log channel next year and melt up, even though the semi’s already have. But even within the log channel the steady climb it’s already on will hit 8000 by mid year.

    Even with trillions in QE sloshing around I’d be very surprised if the Fed allowed the market to go bitcoin bat shit crazy, too destabilizing after the experience of the last decade.

  4. Anthonyo

    Good futurist video Mr. Savage.
    Now, would we get first/are we still vulnerable to the severe swoosh down(some are calling for a 500-1000 points on SPX deep shake out akin to October 1987)??
    That is the Question which will be the difference between preserving capital and see it lost on paper during such an event and wait it out to go back up….OR selling now and re-investing after the crash.

    But yes, a) with the advents in technology, Artificial Intelligence, robots, biotech/phrama, perhaps drone technology and AI servants (they already have the AI sex doll by the way)….
    AND, b) If Europe sinks farther economically and financially, with Japan to be the second shoe which falls, plus most potential turmoil geo-politically N Korea and in particular Iran regime vs. 7 countries to come, All the scared foreign money will pour into US markets ….and now with Inflation seemingly starting to ramp up…………….A 35,000 to 45,000 Dow will not be surprising by 2020-2021.

    1. Gary Post author

      I think it just depends on if the dollar enters a bear market (which I think it will).

      That would probably drive bull markets in everything just like it did from 2001 to 2011.

  5. earthkitten

    Forget gold. Jusr buy stocks & hold for 15
    years. Gold may go up but not to the extent
    stocks will. Get in stocks now & stay there.
    Gary keeps telling you not to waste your
    time & money on that rock.

  6. earthkitten

    This is the opportunity of a lifetime & many are going
    to miss out. AAII bullish sentiment out this week
    below 30%. Everyone thinks this market can’t go
    higher & fake financial news calling for a crash &
    people believe that crap. This market is going higher.
    Much higher.

    1. Anthonyo

      Yep…If gold is to make a peak price by 2020-2021 at say “X + the previous peak at $1923” dollars;
      Bitcoin’s effect will cut the potentially coming would-be price peak in gold to 30%-50% of “X + the previous peak at $1923”.

      This is a fact.

    1. Gary Post author

      The 2016 YCL occurred in June after the Brexit, not on the elections.

      The YCL for 2017 already occurred in March. It’s probably going to occur in January or February of 2018 based on the current IC timing.

  7. primetime

    The market will continue to perform well for much longer than most think b/c the economy is getting hot. It is going to get too hot over time, they will lose control and that will cause one hell of a recession from CB debt but more importantly household debt. Retail and associated real estate crash will deepen the recession. None are worried about recession (China continues to be iffy), but it is going to and has to occur. Not tomorrow or next week but probably 2019. So run baby run, let’s make some money!

    1. Don

      Prime, I agree with you but do you think it’s wise to be putting money into a bull market that is already over done done? Where do you see value with these nose bleed stock prices?

  8. Don

    This video is quite thought provoking as Gary does present a good case for a new secular bull market that could go on for many years. That said, a 1987 type crash, short a and sharp, is not improbable and in my opinion, necessary to correct the multitude of financial imbalances that has resulted from too much money printing over a relatively short period.

    At this point, rising rates and ultimately, a recession are exactly what are needed to cleanse the economy of a multitude of unproductive allocations of capital. (think stock buy backs as an example). We may very well be in a new secular bull market but it won’t be without bumps in the road.

    1. Gary Post author

      One of those kind of corrections would need to occur at a multi-year cycle low. It’s still way too early as the last one occurred not even two years ago in early 2016. Even if we return to the normal 4 year cycle it won’t be due until 2020 (give or take a year). If we stay on the new evolved 7 year cycle then it moves out to 2023 (give or take a year).

      I’ve shown the ROBO ratio several times in recent video’s and we aren’t even vaguely close yet to the kind of retail complacency that signals more significant tops.

    1. Gary Post author

      Except my analysis almost always turns out to be correct and we just keep making money.

      Your’s on the other hand almost always turns out to be wrong and you will never enter the challenge as we would then have proof that you are constantly wrong.

      LOL.

      1. Steffmeister

        LOL we have not yet reached the triangle bottom for Gold that you predicted during summer and I said no,

        Gary=WRONG!

        Steffmeister=CORRECT!

        You’ve had so many bad calls over the years, so that’s why I am not a subscriber 😛

  9. desertsun999

    All I can say is no no no and no. This time is not going to be different Gary. In time this will go down as another one of your outlandish calls that was not out in left field but not even on the field. The Dow gold ratio is not going to bottom at 6. Just forget about that. It isn’t going to happen.

    1. Anthonyo

      What We Regret Most Are Lost Opportunities,
      and an analyst community sleep at the wheel when
      the 8000 lb gorilla of all bull markets, Bitcoin, was glossed over, ignored, and ridiculed(and still is.)

      Nothing is more expensive than a missed opportunity.
      Someone took the ones we missed.

      I was seldom able to see an opportunity until it had ceased to be one?(Twain)
      OR
      We must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures?(Shakespeare)

      You be the judge.

      1. Gary Post author

        That has to be the most absurd statement I’ve heard in a long time.

        Every trader in the history of the world misses opportunities everyday. Hell why would anyone mess around with bitcoin when they could score over 100% in one day by trading RLOG. How in the world can you live with yourself for missing this one?

        It’s impossible to catch every big trending move. Traders invest in what they know. Some traders are familiar with the metals market, some with energy. some with individual stocks.

        If one is consistent in a certain sector it would be foolish to jump into something they know nothing about. It would be even more foolish to jump in simply because all the other sheep are playing follow the leader. Anyone who buys something that is stretched 300% above it’s 200 DMA deserves to lose all his money. Seriously that is just stupid.

        Now if you were lucky enough to buy bitcoin a couple of years ago then you have a nice cushion. So when the parabola crashes you will hopefully still be able to get out with some of your gains intact. Anyone buying now is going to lose everything unless they are very lucky and can get out before the crash. Anthonyo however is completely lost in the bubble mentality, He has almost no chance of keeping any of his gains as he will never be able to control greed and just be satisfied and exit. He’s become conditioned to expect every correction will reverse. So he will hold, and then one of the corrections won’t be a correction, it will be the bubble popping, and he will ride it all the way down.

        Like I always say: human nature never changes. It’s why almost no one ever makes any money off of bubbles.

        I learned my lesson the hard way during the tech bubble. I didn’t make that mistake twice and I was one of the few that made a ton of money off the housing bubble.

        1. Anthonyo

          Gary,

          Anthonyo doe snot own Bitcoin and never had owned Bitcoin.

          It is regrets over “Lost Opportunity” if you read Anthonyo’s reply above. Hello??
          Anthonyo is not lost in bubble mentality, as he never owned it.

          On the other hand, AMAZON.COM will be accepting BITCOINS soon……BITCOIN IRA is now available or coming soon……And Bitcoin has siphoned off LOTS of liquidity away from Gold and silver…. is everyone wrong or ‘lost in bubble’ then?………The fact is Bitcoin is here to stay and I missed it and so did you.

          I disagree LOTS of people made MONEY real money from the DOTCOM Bubble, even Real estate bubble too……But to make money in bubbles, you first have to ENTER as a player or trader…………..How can you WIN MONEY if you don’t even play?
          Lots of analysts were just blind by their conventional thinking to even GET INTO Bitcoin.

          I never labelled myself an “analyst”, or “money manager”… so if I missed the FANTASTIC OPPORTUNITY in Bitcoin….I can be excused I guess.

          It is the so-called analysts who DISMISSED, IGNORED, and did not SEE the greatest bull market in modern times which is Bitcoin who have to live with themselves in their own minds on why they did not enrich themselves and their clients with Bitcoin trade.

          ‘Nuff Said; the rest is crying over spilled milk(cash).

  10. Nada

    Oh hell, I simply can not resist. Like I have said previously, Gary will be in the end known for two things; JNUG 23 and 10k is going to be a piece of cake and 20k is not out of the question.

    Forget that for a minute. Let’s look at how he is now trying to walk back his previous statements on gold. Shall we begin?

    This is exactly what I mean, when I say Gary talks outside both sides of his blankety blank. He is now trying to say that the ICL occurred in October with a short cycle scenario;

    “dj
    November 17, 2017 at 5:21 pm
    Gold tested 200 day MA and went through 50 day MA today. I believe next move will be to the mid 1300 level, maybe even breaking 1400.

    Gary
    November 17, 2017 at 5:26 pm
    You may be right if the currencies have turned earlier than I expected.

    Gary
    November 17, 2017 at 10:45 am
    If gold makes a higher high above 1307 then the short cycle scenario will be confirmed”

    And now let’s pad our calls with both scenarios;

    “Gary
    November 18, 2017 at 7:37 am
    It’s getting late in the cycle so upside is probably limited, but we are coming to the end of the basing phase. The next leg up will begin shortly.”

    My god which is it? Was the ICL was in October or is it December??

    “Gary
    November 7, 2017 at 7:58 am
    The sector is going to have to get past its intermediate cycle low before it will be ready to deliver a sustained upwards trending move.
    That means the countertrend moves in the euro and dollar need to finish. I think both may still have another month before they’re done. My guess is the December FOMC meeting where the Fed will raise rates again will be the trigger for the euro to bottom in the dollar to top.”

    I told Gary about gold rallying into FOMC. His response;

    “Gary
    October 31, 2017 at 8:20 am
    When has gold ever gone up big ahead of an FOMC meeting? You are betting on events that happen maybe 1% of the time.”

    Gary was also told about the double bottom, his response;

    “Gary
    October 29, 2017 at 6:43 pm
    That possibility is less than 1% because its way too early in the cycle for a bottom.

    – Traders are always looking for double bottoms or double tops. They are rare and only occur when the setup materializes very late in a cycle.
    If a bottom is tested early in a cycle there is virtually no chance of a double bottom and one can almost bet the farm that support will ultimately be broken. That is the case now with gold”

    But oh yes, but now Gary is telling you he had it right with a short cycle scenario- implying the ICL occurred.

    A cycle analyst who knows a faild cycle must occur is now selling a scenario where “this time is different.” He is saying if 1306 is broken.. WAIT.. how can that be, 1306 can not be broken!! Why? Gary already said it would FAIL;

    “Gary
    November 9, 2017 at 6:24 am
    The level to watch is 1306. If gold goes above that then it will make a higher high. It’s not going to though, as it still needs to complete the ICL.”

    TIME AND TIME again Gary has stated we need an ICL;

    “Gary
    October 24, 2017 at 5:28 pm

    Don’t make the mistake of remaining in denial. Gold is going to follow the miners and confirm a failed daily cycle as well. The longer one stays in denial the more money you will lose.

    Gary
    October 25, 2017 at 6:16 pm
    It seems like you are trying to rationalize reasons for why gold won’t produce an ICL this time.

    Even during the baby bull gold had an ICL which included a failed daily cycle.

    Gold isn’t in the baby bull phase anymore. It’s in the adolescent phase. To think that gold won’t have ICL’s during the adolescent phase of a bull market seems like a stretch to me.

    Gary
    October 30, 2017 at 8:02 am
    We can’t have an ICL until gold completes at least one failed daily cycle.

    Gary
    November 1, 2017 at 10:19 am
    Even the baby bull completed a failed daily cycle before the ICL was finished.
    I think you are making a big mistake assuming this isn’t going to happen.

    Gary
    November 3, 2017 at 4:30 am
    Maybe that’s because many people have listened to me and are finally paying attention this time when I say gold has to complete a failed daily cycle before the ICL is finished.

    Gary
    November 7, 2017 at 7:58 am
    The sector is going to have to get past its intermediate cycle low before it will be ready to deliver a sustained upwards trending move.
    That means the countertrend moves in the euro and dollar need to finish. I think both may still have another month before they’re done. My guess is the December FOMC meeting where the Fed will raise rates again will be the trigger for the euro to bottom in the dollar to top.”

    And that folks is how you talk out both sides of your a$$. Gold will gap fill and then produce it’s ICL as I have outlined over and over on this blog for the past 3 months. There is nothing special about this IC timing band. We still have almost 30 days to rally before the IC will begin it’s hunt for an ICL. Gary simply needs to learn to count and stop listening to likesmoney for his cycle counts.

    1. vin

      Welcome back Nada. You were missed.

      However, what is jnug 23 story?

      I remember Gary had predicted jnug at 2000 (500 x 4 = 2000). That is he had predicted 500 before the 1 to 4 reverse split. I still hold jnug based on his recommendation. He had warned that no one will be able to hold it till the end.

      Of-course. In the end it will probably not be worth anything at all so whether one holds it or not is immaterial. I had bought it at 44+ (that is a bit more than $11 before the reverse split). Please wish me luck.

      And, be assured that by the end of June we will have nasdaq at 10k, we are almost there. You seem to have some doubts? Has Gary been ever wrong before? And, if he even wasn’t 100 percent then it was due to manipulation. And, we all know that markets are manipulated. Naysayers wil be proven wrong.

      1. Idontknowwhatimtalkingabout

        He said it was going to the moon last year from 23 and had his subscribers buy, I believe. The only thing I know for sure is he didn’t use a stop and was still holding as it crashed. He stated on this board, and quote “only idiots sell bottoms”. It proceeded to go straight to hell and he “closed the model portfolio”, but did not sell. Someone asked for clarification on this and he reassured he hadn’t sold, only closed the port tracking.

    2. RTTPD

      “And that folks is how you talk out both sides of your a$$. Gold will gap fill and then produce it’s ICL as I have outlined over and over on this blog for the past 3 months. There is nothing special about this IC timing band. We still have almost 30 days to rally before the IC will begin it’s hunt for an ICL. Gary simply needs to learn to count and stop listening to likesmoney for his cycle counts.”

      Nada ——-

      If what you’re saying is true and gold does rally for another 3 weeks before the real ICL, that means that all the gold prognosticators writing throughout thd web are mostly all wrong.

      Nearly every tout I read said gold was moving into the ICL and could/would drop to 1205.

  11. Gary Post author

    LMAO!

    I posted the short cycle theory as a video. We exited within pennies of the top. These aren’t the Monday morning trades that most like to post here. These are real time documented calls. Any sub can vouch for that.

    At that exit the metal portfolio was up 150% over the last year and a half.

    I then played a few short trades and recently exited our last trade in early November. The market was starting to whipsaw and I wanted no part of it.

    At that point the metal portfolio was now up 190%.

    Again real time documented trades.

    You on the other hand stayed long the entire time expecting a normal intermediate cycle. You got caught when the cycle topped earlier than expected (the same as me last year when I tried to take a long trade too late in the intermediate cycle. I guess we’re both in the same boat on this one so I’d be careful about throwing stones as you made the exact same mistake as me except you are playing options so your positions will go to 0.)

    Back in August I warned that the vertical phase would start once the summer/fall ICL was behind us. Virtually everyone else here disagreed with me and started looking for a fall crash. You tell me who was right.

    For well over three years now I’ve been warning people that once the Nasdaq broke out above the 2000 highs it would rally big and aggressively. (The bigger the consolidation the bigger the rally once a breakout occurs.

    Again you can tell me if I was correct or not.

    Folks, there are always going to be a few people here that will invariably disagree with every single call I make. Like I said: their goal is to catch me in a losing trade. It doesn’t matter to them that they will miss 9 winning trades in a row while they wait for that loser. It’s more important for them to be “right” than it is for them to make money.

    Nada delivered a perfect example. He says I’ll be remembered for that one wrong call JUNG. But I have to ask why? We’ve long since recovered from that loss and the metal portfolio is now 70% higher than it was when we entered that bad trade. Understand what I’m saying here. I’m not saying we are 70% higher than where we were when we had to exit at a loss. I’m saying at the very top when we were at our highest point and then entered the bad trade, we are now 70% higher than we were when we were at our best last year.

    Now here is something else for you to ponder. The miners as measured by GDX are currently up roughly 85% from their bear market bottom in 2015. The SMT metal portfolio is up 190% over the last 23 months. We have more than doubled the gains in the miners. I don’t think anyone would be dissatisfied with that.

    (The stock portfolio is up 150% during the last 23 months. The S&P is up 23%)

    So I have to ask. What rational person would remember me for one poorly timed trade instead of all the perfect real time trades and the massive outperformance compared to the stock and metal indexes?

    Seriously only an idiot or troll would focus on one losing trade and ignore the fact that the SMT has an exceptional record, and not the made up record of virtually every other newsletter in the business, but a real time record.

    Again this is why I started the challenge. If you want to challenge me then you are going to have to play by the same rules as me. You are going to have to make real time entries and exits, and you are going to have to give me position sizes. If you aren’t willing to put your ass on the line with real time calls, then you don’t get the privilege of criticizing anyone.

    1. Robert

      lol cant deny that you have more real time winning calls this year vs losing trades but what I think Nada is saying is that you made a strong case of gold heading into an ICL, no exceptions. Now as gold has clearly made a convincing rally you have kind of flip flopped to cover your base. It would be better to just say you were wrong instead of trying to cover bases like Avi Gilbert always does. I don’t really care, in the end we are all just confused by gold now. Has the ICL been aborted or not is the question? I’d say if this is the beginning of the next leg up then 90% of traders will be left behind. Gold has become a shitty market.

      1. Gary Post author

        Flip flopped?

        I discussed the short cycle theory in detail. I got out at the exact top based on the short cycle theory when others where still looking for a rally beyond $1400.

        How can anyone say I was wrong when gold has clearly moved down into an ICL.

        The only thing that is still undecided is whether it will complete a failed daily cycle. Some are already claiming victory but the simple fact is that we still don’t know if this will be the one in a hundred scenario where gold fails to produce a failed daily cycle. Just because gold rallied on Friday doesn’t mean the ICL is finished. Remember take everything in the metals sector with a grain of salt. It’s one of the most heavily manipulated markets on the planet.

        It’s all going to boil down to whether the dollar rallies out of a DCL soon and makes a higher high, or whether the euro is controlling the currency cycles and has completed an ICL.

        Ultimately this is just an argument about short term timing. The big picture hasn’t changed. Gold has started a new bull market but is still stuck in a basing pattern. Once the ICL is finished the next rally should break out of the base and begin the bull in earnest. This should correspond with the dollar confirming a new bear market.

    2. BeachandBiscuits

      I’ve made a ton of money following Gary’s analysis and recommendations.

      I like that he’s willing to turn on a dime if things go the other way from how he expected.

      What’s up with the fetish of bashing Gary by some people? If you don’t like it, start your own site. It’s just weird.

      And I’m believing for Nasdaq 10,000 by next July (!) and will personally fly to Vegas and buy him the best vegan meal I can afford to say thanks, LOL (then, I’ll stop off at Prime for a steak and Petrossian for some caviar since I might still be hungry 🙂

  12. Anthonyo

    Dudes,

    A whole bunch of nothing is going on in the Futures right now….yawny Monday and week market coming?

    Note: they’re all gone to the Hampton and locations unknown for Thanksgiving already while most of us Schmucks without any lavish vacations languishing while the elite in Wall Street are having a bash baby.

    Even after Thanksgiving real trading won’t start until Mid-week or Monday Dec 4th to be real about it.

  13. victor

    Gary,
    The only time I don’t want to/try to avoid read your posts when you defending yourself. Why are you doing this? I wish you be above it. Say your market view or any particular matter As You See It and That’s It. What are you trying to prove? Useless arguing only shows man vulnerability.
    I better stop here…

  14. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, I uphold your theory that Gold can produce a failed Daily Cycle.
    It can be done when USX moves in the dead-cat bounce of a new DC (now most likely in the old DC).

    Today EUR has shown STRENGTH: it managed to produce higher intraday high on bearish political data on Merkel! Probability of ICL of EURUSD at 1.11555 has increased.

    Thus, the prime scenario I was mentioning last week is on play:
    Step 1: EURUSD b/o touching 1.1881 (producing a failed DC for the inverted USDEUR pair)
    Step 2: USX up in a new DC and EURUSD down to a HCL –> gold charts its ICL
    Step 3: buy gold on swing low.

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