1. Gary Post author

      I doubt it.

      I have no idea why anyone is even wasting time with the sector right now. It’s just whipsawing everyone to pieces.

      Sentiment is still neutral. I want to see sentiment get bearish before I try to call a bottom.

      The most likely timing for gold to bottom and the dollar to top is still around the December FOMC meeting where the Fed will hike another 1/4 point.

  1. jacob2

    Gary, agree with your roadmap. Large cap tech, bio’s and perhaps a retailer rebound likely end of year. Think the participation will be narrow. Want better odds. Awaiting a spring gut check for a better entry point. Why is it that the less I own the better I feel? Good luck.

  2. Gary Post author

    The dollar is forming a swing low this morning after yesterday’s reversal off the 10 week moving average.

    At day 49 I have to think the odds are high the DCL was struck yesterday. If the dollar has bottomed then there’s a good chance stocks have as well.

    If so then we would have another very mild correction in an ongoing vertical phase.

  3. Americano

    CEO of Interactive Brokers ( & CME member ) took out a FULL PAGE AD in wsj begging for govt oversight to PREVENT CME form offering BITCOIN futures.

    But the reasoning is where things get REALLY INTERSTING…..
    He complains that it’s IMPOSSIBLE to hedge Bitcoin shorts! And wipeouts from shorts could destroy the ENTIRE commodities derivatives market, ruining the economy!

    So it’s cool to have futures with gold & silver because they can work those back and forth blindfolded – but Bitcoin? No way. Just like casinos get all up in arms by the guy killing them at the blackjack table for counting cards.
    Below is Morningstar write up & the actual open letter from the Wall Street journal that IB spent about $200K to place.



    Repeating forecast – Bitcoin $15K June. 25K EOY 2018.

  4. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, yes, this correlates w/ our talk yesterday on CRB and oil.

    While USX set its DCL yesterday (and CRB index most likely today), I think its ICH (and ICL for EUR) may have been already set, so that the rise now of USX may be only to confirm a new DC alone, a lower high (HCL for EURUSD), as commodities and SM top.

    If this is the scenario to play out (and I deem it most likely considering CRB’s overextension in its Intermediary Cycle), then GOLD’S ICL IN LESS THAN 2W WILL BE A GREAT BUYING OPPORTUNITY until early January when EUR reaches its YCH.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      …crude oil needs to undercut today to allow CRB index to set its DCL and ride higher to ICH as crude will shake its 200Wma in <2w (maybe the ICH of crb and oil will come around DOE's report the other Wednesday, Nov29).

  5. isavage

    Gary as posted yesterday. i wanted to confirm your call on oil after your last post. The target is $61- 62 in WTI & not Brent oil & you look for further weakness this week before moving up to that target correct?

    1. Gary Post author

      Ideally oil will break its cycle up trendline before completing the daily cycle low. I don’t know why you would want to trade oil or metals or currencies when there’s easy money to be had in the stock market though. By the way I would never ever trade currencies. They are the most heavily manipulated markets on the planet.

      1. isavage

        Thanks Gary. Yes understand your out look, im doing cross asset diversification. EUR/USD is about hedging for land im buying in USD from EUR i have to pay for next month

  6. Jelly Belly

    I want to buy into the SM and hold until NASDAQ goes to 10,000. Which is the better option? (1) Buy now or as soon as a DCL has been confirmed, or (2) Wait until we get an ICL and buy then. What’s your opinion on this, Gary?

  7. vin

    intel doing well. up 3.75 or do. labu up. shaping up to be a nice day.
    Bought qqq options (155)
    Bought smh options (105)

  8. Don

    A 1.4% drop is hardly what could be called a correction. It barely shows on a weekly chart and not at all on a monthly.

  9. JJHarmen

    No sell off this morning. Volatility gone in a flash. At this rate we will be back up to new highs in no time.

      1. Nada

        Well here is the thing. The implied volatility on the SPX last night was expecting a 20 point move on options that expire in.. wait for it .. 2 days. So obviously the market was expecting a nice move. You never know if that is to the upside or downside, but in this case it seems simple to be on upside.

        Looking at the implied volatility can tell you a great deal on market expectations. Volatility has been increasing since last week and we have seen that in price-action.

  10. JJHarmen

    I sure the hell would not be shorting the SM. It’s just too bad that the gold miners are not in on the party.

  11. victor

    Bought cannabis company ACB, todays drop is because warrants expiry day changed for earlier. It should double at least till next spring…

    1. Nada

      Still trying to figure out why there is so many Canadians on a site ran by a guy from sin city. Gary, you advertise on TV in Canada?

      1. Don

        Why does that puzzle you Nada? You must be American. There are people here from the UK, Australia, all over. It’s that worldwide internet thing.

      2. vin

        Nada in general Canadian markets have a much higher percentage of metal related stocks. And, this site was originally a metal board, more or less.

        1. Nada

          That makes sense Vin. I did not realize that about the Canadian markets, but was well aware of Gary’s long standing relationship with gold. However, that love has decreased in 2017. His new love is the SM – after waiting on sidelines for about 6 months after US election.

          1. Gary Post author

            In the last two years the smt stock portfolio is up 150%. The S&P is up about 30%. Tell me again how I missed the rally.

          2. MagnuM

            Nada’s right. Americans outnumber Canadians by 10:1 by pure population, but on this board, Canadians outnumber Americans seemingly 10:1.

          3. Nada

            Who said you missed? I simply said you sat on the sidelines after the election for an extended duration. Those are nice percentages for a portfolio – even for a paper portfolio 🙂

          4. Gary Post author

            Being cautious after the election to see if the Democrats would try and sabotage Trump the correct course of action. I would do it again today. None of us have a crystal ball. A lot of us however like to pretend like we did with the Monday morning trades. However the challenge has eliminated that nonsense.

            No one ever catches all of a rally unless they are old turkey, and if they are old turkey they also catch-all of every correction. We made up for any missed part of the rally by getting in at the bottom of Corrections in writing to the top of icl’s.

  12. Don

    The whole world is celebrating (via stock markets) US tax reform. That doesn’t make any sense but it doesn’t matter to the machines, central banks or corporations buying their own shares.

  13. Gary Post author

    Well I said that the cycle low would occur sometime this week and it came on Tuesday. I wonder if any of you bought the dip this time? I doubt it would be very many. No matter how many times I call these most people just never learn.

    1. Gary Post author

      This is why most people never make any money in the market. They just keep doing the same things over and over and producing the same results.

    1. Gary Post author

      So many people risking their money in biotechs for the possibility of maybe marginally outperforming. They could make more than enough money to be happy by just playing it safe in the NASDAQ 100 or the Dow. Then again most people just don’t think logically.

      1. victor

        As for me it was one another chance to enter biotech’s long, and yes I shorted spx and went long yesterday. Thanks Gary.

        1. Gary Post author

          I don’t recall anyone placing a short trade in the challenge recently, or buying biotech yesterday.

          After the fact trades don’t count anymore.

      2. vin

        You are right again. Some people never learn. Take my example. I am now stuck with labu and don’t know what to do, all confused.

        1. jabalong

          FYI, INO MarketClub just flashed a red monthly triangle on IBB on 11/15. So now all three of its trade triangles – daily, weekly, monthly – are red. It’s not the time to be trapped in a 3x bullish ETF. You may want to take this bounce as an opportunity to cut your losses.

          1. vin

            jabalong, I am not very well versed in this game of stock predictions. But, I find puzzling that ibb shot up to-day in spite of those three red triangles.

            Is there a explanation for such an event? Or, is it just one of those things?

  14. isavage

    Dax has closed under the monthly resistance line. First it went below that supersized me & now cant close above on US moves today.

    Makes me suspicious. Sold half my Short TVIX position to lock in profits.

  15. victor

    Guys, I avoid suggestions usually, but if you see AURORA CANNABIS INC (asbff) go down to retest todays low, BUY.

  16. isavage

    Took profits on LABU @70 from yesterdays entry at 63.25 still hold 50% of position. but looking tricky here at bottom of weekly resistance line. Confirms across different markets. need to see strong follow through or we could retrace. unlikely in run away market, but want to see it on the chart before committing to more up side.

    1. vin

      Smart. Congratulations isavage.

      I will stay with it. If Gary’s prediction of nasdaq 20k happens to pass, I will sell labu at 500. LOL!

  17. JJHarmen

    And just like that, new high for the Nasdaq! Several days of declines wiped clean in three hours of the algos going into a buying frenzy.

    1. Gary Post author

      I find it hilarious that the Perma Bears blame every rally on the algos. The simple fact is earnings are going up as fast as the stock market, we are in the most bullish time of year, and this is when Tech performs the best. This has nothing to do with computers and everything to do with just a little common sense.

      1. Nada

        Algos or not, the size of the contracts are amazing. About 2 hrs ago there was a single 3k contract dump and the /ES didn’t blink. The liquidity is crazy and that has been firming up some lately. Point is, the big boys are having fun with their orders and its not retail driving any of this – do they ever?

          1. Nada

            A single order of 3000 contracts dumped on the E-Mini S&P 500. Someone big sold, but there has been several +500 contract buys since. 500 contracts are common, but 3k is not.

      2. JJHarmen

        Gary, blaming rallies on the the algos is not much different than blaming the banks (manipulation) when one of a calls doesn’t work out as expected.

        1. Gary Post author

          The manipulation of the metals Market is fact. It has cost a lot of investors tons of money, and lined a lot of banksters pockets.

          I don’t think every rally is caused by market manipulation. I do think there is manipulation to proactively Halt Corrections, especially ahead of fomc meetings and political events.

        2. vin

          jj a good salesperson is always right. It is the handling of the product that is the problem.

          But, you have to admit that Gary’s predictions have been amazingly correct. But, I wonder why did he get out a few days ago?

  18. Gary Post author

    How much egg does gartman and gross have on their faces today.

    Like I said, every other day someone is going to try and call the top and most people are going to miss almost all of the rally.

  19. Don

    I pointed out yesterday that Gartman is a nearly perfect contrary indicator. He said the bear market was underway and look at what is happening today.

    1. victor

      I don’t know how he and like him survive…, why people are paying attention to those self promoted analysts…

  20. Nada

    Expect more sideways grinding action. Algos sold GLD GDX and bought GDXJ. Bitcoin has sucked a lot of money away from gold.

    1. isavage

      Don – That’s a lot of SNP selling. Fits with my feelings of the rip today.

      Feeling like sucker rally / violent short squeeze.

      “Trust but verify” is my stance here.

      1. Gary Post author

        A large selling on strength number doesn’t have to mean that the trend is going to reverse. It could just mean that big money thinks there might be some kind of a pullback after a large update. A pullback can be anything from 1 to 5 points.

        This is a common occurrence among emotional retail traders. They blow everything out of proportion.

        1. Nada

          Lol, Gary why do you always talk like you are managing some multi billion dollars hedge fund? I hate to remind you, but you are a retail trader.

    2. Nada

      Sort of matches up with some of the distribution I saw yesterday in futures. I am sure they were taking profit on the rally, as there was big BOW a few days before on SPY.

      I would assume a swing for some and with the Senate in question for next week with tax reform, probably smart to lock in profits after yesterday’s massive squeeze. Some think something is up geopolitical, but from following BOW and SOS, seems like profit taking to me.

  21. vin

    isavage, how did you reach that conclusion when the block trades had reasonably high percentage of up volume?

    1. vin

      of-course it was a short squeeze but why would that make it a sucker rally? I would say exactly the opposite. Vertically up!

      1. isavage

        Hi Vin

        I’m happy with both. Just being ready for a reversal if it should happen.

        Im interested to know about your use of watching big money block buying. Can you share more how that has helped your trading and the site you have found best to monitor it.

        I like to keep learning form all the experienced people using this blog that’s a great opportunity Gary has given us.

  22. jacob2

    unAmerican, selling long held domestic stocks in favor of emerging markets, looking at silver. Inflation.

    1. Nada

      He will not be back until gold produces a failed cycle and by the looks of things, I wouldn’t hold my breath.

  23. Gary Post author

    I don’t know why anyone is insistent on trading the metals right now. They have been whip sawing both bulls and bears to pieces for weeks.

    At some point the dollar will roll over and confirm the bear market, and when that happens then gold will deliver a sustained move to the upside. Right now though the dollar is due for a bounce out of the daily cycle low.

  24. Nada

    There were some big contract dumps on the /ES morning. Looks like things might be trying to stabilize. However, the implied volatility is increasing.

    I am not a top caller, but here is the thing. Bottoms occur at events and topping is a process. I can guarantee one thing, as it has always been the case – when we start to see volatility pick up as we stay range bound towards the highs, that will be your tell. Implied volatility has been steadily increasing.

      1. Nada

        Maybe you should re-read my comments . “I am not a top caller” was specifically stated. I said whenever we see volatility pick up, it will be a tell as it has always been.

        But you keep smoking your hopium;

        “10,000 is going to be a piece of cake. 20,000 is not out of the question.”

          1. Gary Post author

            I’ve tried to warn everyone what happens at the end of bull markets.

            The biggest quickest gains occur during the baby bull and at the very end of a bull market in the bubble phase.

            We are either starting the bubble phase, or this is a secular bull market that still has 10 or 15 years to run. It’s still too early for me to tell which it is, although I’m leaning towards the first because I think central bank QE needs to be punished with another series of bubbles.

    1. m0ntana

      Gold is looking incredibly strong, I think its foolish to take metals trade right now. Agree with Gman

  25. Anthonyo

    Unfortunately gold is being stubborn and not going down let alone closing under 1260…
    The scenario of another gold bottom at 1200 or lower in December is getting weaker?
    Something is going on which is perturbing the cycles for both gold and oil: Tax Plan, Iran-Saudi Arabia jitters, Lebanon imminent Israel big strike on Hezbollah?….something is souring the cycles.

      1. Nada

        Everyone is listening to the “short cycle theory” that has been blasted all over this blog for the last 3 months and it simply didn’t play out. Also it seems “everyone” thinks that gold will bottom on FOMC dec 13th meeting. Cycle duration as reflected on chart, says differently.

        1. Gary Post author

          On the contrary it played out almost exactly as I anticipated. It triggered my exit earlier than I would have if I had been expecting a longer cycle. Documented in real time, we exited within pennies of the exact top of our NUGT positions.

          1. Gary Post author

            I’m just not ready to take a trade in either direction in the metals sector at the moment. Right now it just looks like the banksters are whipsawing the market back and forth taking money from both sides.

          2. Nada

            No, its not on the contrary. Have we had failed cycle? Nope. Have we had an ICL? Nope. A short cycle would imply both of those scenarios would be met by now.

            I am not sure why you are trying to make it about something else. I never said you made a bad trade, but you are always waiting in the hall to gloat.

  26. Don

    Gold going up in sync with the Yen. The ‘strength” we are seeing may be nothing more than a currency play.

  27. vin

    In spite of all the perfect “scientific” analysis, all the predictions of the smart ones, the knowledge of THE great gurus………. …

    labu is up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Is this what is known as climbing the wall of worry?

      1. vin

        Yes Smart One, you are right labu was down WHOLE 4 CENTS. OMG!

        But, you forgot mention minor details, tqqq was down 1.52 & soxl was down 2.13


    1. Bluebellkid

      LABU didn’t quite make it down to the 200 day before bouncing on Wednesday which is a bullish sign (a reversal). It is also trading in the upper half of the weekly trading range on volume that is well above average. This week’s volume will likely be the heaviest in several months. All in all not a bad week.

  28. Robert

    Well it looks like the call for gold to flush into an ICL is negated. Gold is not following the usual cycles no more. Maybe the bottom is alrdy in and it just moves sideways or slightly higher into Dec then a small pback. But overall gold is good for only scalping, if u want to lose all your money keep trying to play old turkey in gold

    1. jacob2

      A SM bull but bought silver yesterday …SILJ. Inflation! The market will ultimately decide that the new tax cut is highly ….inflationary.

  29. allthatglitters

    However, if (huge if) an ICL for the metals is still ahead, this is the fuel we needed for it. We had simply run out of steam in the downward direction. Now there are new buyers who can be taken down.

    1. Nada

      The ICL is ahead. We will need a failed cycle. Look at the chart I posted about three times today. THERE IS NOTHING SPECIAL about this IC.

        1. Robert

          With this move I think any drop into an ICL will be mild. If we get the failed cycle then we may only see 1240-1250 as the final bottom. Alot of cycle analysts and elliot waver have been predicting a gold flush to 1190-1200. So based on the action today I think they will all be wrong including Gary. So my best guess is we get a mild ICL in Dec. Maybe 1220-1240 at best.

    1. Nada

      This might help a bit;


      The green shaded area shows that if we go by the past 4 IC’s, we have *31* days OR *23* trading days before we are expected to start rolling down into an ICL.

      I ask you, what is more statistically possible – the cycles continue very close to the same duration they have for years, or “this time” we get some exotic “short-cycle”?

  30. Gary Post author

    Bottom line: Gold is in a new bull market. It’s not going back below the 2015 bear market bottom.

    Bottom line: gold has been stuck in a basing pattern. Those are difficult to trade. They tend to be complex and erratic.

    Bottom line: If the euro & yen have completed final ICL’s then we have just seen a one daily cycle intermediate cycle in gold (the short cycle scenario).

    This isn’t my preferred scenario but I accept that all kinds of weird stuff can happen in a basing pattern. I’m currently sitting on the sidelines until I decide whether that really was a one daily cycle ICL in gold a month and a half ago.

    (If it was, then it will turn out that I was right and gold isn’t going to go back below the 200 DMA).

    If gold makes a higher high above 1307 then the short cycle scenario will be confirmed.

    1. Robert

      This is another flaw with cycles analysis its pretty much the same flaw as E.Wavers. If this then that to cover both sides. So now this could be a one daily cycle short cycle which would then cover both bases and you can say a break above 1308 means bull market and break below 1260 still means a drop into ICL. Both analysis therefore have there flaws and there is no true way to predict the market all the time. Just make sure your losing trades are smaller than your winners is the only way to make money in this market. Easier said than done though.

      1. Nada

        You are right about that Robert. We are seeing this happen today with this walking back of their previous statements.

    2. Nada

      WOW! Just when I thought I heard everything!

      “Bottom line: If the euro & yen have completed final ICL’s then we have just seen a one daily cycle intermediate cycle in gold (the short cycle scenario).”

      “If gold makes a higher high above 1307 then the short cycle scenario will be confirmed.”

      What a SPIN job! NO NO NO, this is ***NOT*** what you have been saying. This is absolutely priceless! YOUR short-cycle theory was NEVER about the ICL occurring in the past. You have said TIME and TIME again that a failed cycle was UPON on (in the last few weeks) and that gold WOULD CONFIRM a FAILED cycle.

      NOW you are trying to say, if we make a higher high, then you were right a long. Man you are a piece of work!

      1. Robert

        lol basically if this then that. Same thing as Elliot Wavers like Avi Gilbert. Lets not bash Gary tho, he has been correct with his calls more often than other analysts. All I want to point out is that cycle analysis has its flaws as well. There is no true way to predict the market all the time. Its all about risk management which should be taught more by these analysts

        1. Nada

          First, everyone looks like a genius in a bull market. Second, this is nothing personal with Gary. However, he is definitely talking out both sides of his arse today!

          1. Gary Post author

            Complete nonsense. My preferred scenario is that gold needs to have one more leg down. That has been my preferred scenario for quite some time.

            If Cycle Theory didn’t work then how in the world did we exit at the exact top, then make a ton of money on the way down and get out at the bottom?

            Don’t forget my calls are made in real time there is no question on what I’m doing. Unlike Gilbert and his multiple wave counts and no real-time trades.

            I’m simply keeping open the possibility that if the euro and the yen have formed intermediate bottoms earlier than I anticipated then I’m going to be ready to reenter long positions and I will give up on waiting for a failed a daily cycle.

            Again this is why I started the challenge. Everyone has to play by the same rules that I do and make their calls in real time. While you have been losing money we have gone from up 150% to up 195% based on the short cycle scenario.

    3. vin

      I agree with you, Gary. For sure gold is headed up. And, this for certain. There are no buts and ifs about it. And, considering your record, it has to happen.

      And, if does not, then that has nothing to do with the preciseness of your prediction, but it will be an outcome of manipulation. And, don’t we all know that gold has been manipulated for long? It is even officially recognized. Right Gary?

      But, Gary I don’t understand why are you wasting your time on gold when there is so much money to be made in SM. Tell them again to just buty SM etf and wait. Can it be more simpler? Tell them again no to bother about gold?

      1. Gary Post author

        Well that was in pretty poor taste considering you’ve made a lot of money off my calls over the last several months.

        Back in August I stressed traders focus on the the the stock market and give gold a rest.

        You tell me, was that the right call?

        Back in early September we exited our long positions in the metals within pennies of the exact top. I warned people what was coming, I even predicted that there would be a countertrend bounce in gold that would get everybody long prematurely.

        Tell me again, was that the right call?

        Several weeks ago I observed that gold was stuck whip the sawing back and forth and we exited our short positions for a nice overall profit. I suggested the safest course of action was to just sit on the sidelines until the whip sawing was over.

        Again, tell me was that the right call?

        For months now I’ve been predicting that oil would ultimately make it to $60-$62 before this intermediate cycle topped. In the meantime most other people were predicting oil was going back to 20 bucks.

        Was that the right call?

        I did a video a couple of months ago and noted the major resistance in the 120 zone in the euro and speculated that that would probably force an intermediate top in the euro and we would get some kind of pullback, causing the dollar to rally.

        Was that the right call?

        I’ve been speculating that the dollar rally would probably top around the December FOMC meeting where the Fed is going to hike rates again. This call I may get wrong and the currencies may have turned earlier than I anticipated. This still remains to be seen.

        Overall almost every one of my market analyses have been correct, even the intermediate currency trends have been spot on even though they may turn slightly earlier than I expected.

        So you tell me if I get one call off slightly on my timing does that negate all of the other correct market calls that came before it?

  31. jyoung3759

    My thoughts are that Gold manipulators are taking advantage of the weakens in the Dollar at the moment as it waivers due to this tax reform nonsense. Here’s what you should be looking for in my mind. Using the most recent daily correction Gold failed just below its 78.6% retracement line which if closed above( 1299.1) would suggest a profit target of 1320.8. which would break the last important daily high of 1308.4 and shift the consensus that we have probably already seen the ICL. However, the much longer swing (7/10-09/08) is in charge and more influential. Price has not been able to close below the 61.8 retracement there of 1264.50 and that supports a move higher as it has hit at or near that level thrice and held so far Another time may not hold. One more swing correction from the 09/08 high to what may turn out to be the ICL low on 10/06 needs to be considered. and we have no even moved near the 50% retracement there. That being said we are still looking at shorter-term moves that have all the power to fail. Ultimately 1299.1 is the first hurdle to close above and then the target for that swing 1320.8 and the 61.8% retracement of the correction swing of 09/08-10/06 is 1324.00. That is the area of most importance (1320.8-1324). SHould that be reached then any failure would more than likely be off the table. This means at the moment you there is still no solid direction and failure into the called ICL could occur. Play by the rules . It does not matter about today’s breakout as ranges often have these types of breakouts or breakdowns and then suddenly the switch is flipped and they move harder in the opposite direction. Keep an eye on what happens. Short term we are still within the parameters of a failed /false breakout that needs more follow through to be called anything else but sucker rally based on perceived weakness of the Dollar. One positive story about the tax reform and the rug probably gets pulled out from under the bulls. Just be cautious and pay attention to the parameters I have outlined or don’t. Have a great weekend.

    1. Nada

      “and shift the consensus that we have probably already seen the ICL. ”

      How can you say that? You can not have an ICL unless there is a failed daily cycle. We have yet to have a failed cycle. This is the second time I am hearing this today. Once from Gary, who KNOWS better than to suggest the ICL has already happened and now again. I really think the short cycle theory did a number on peoples thinking. Going by the past IC’s, it simply is not time for an ICL yet. Why is this being missed?


      BTW, I don’t think too much of todays rally. I think the ICL remains in front of us. I have always believed the gap would be filled before we rolled over and headed into ICL. On the chart above, the grey area show where the IC should start its hunt for an ICL. Like I said, the short cycle theory presented here has skewed everyones outlook on this IC. The nonsensical consolidation has not helped matters.

      1. jyoung3759

        You love conflict don’t you NAda. The statement says if something happens then that would shift the consensus. Doesn’t mean it will happen! My feeling is that the ICL has not happened either but that does not preclude me from looking at mathematical propositions that would change that thought. How you take a simple comment and twist negativity into it seems like a waste of time to me. You can take my comments any way you please but it just one man’s humble opinion and sharing of information and strategy that has made me money for quite awhile. Nothing more. I have no idea what will happen but that’s how I approach things and was just sharing that information. Please try not to find reasons to attack. Peace. I am done here for this day.

        Thank you Gary for the free comments and insight.

        The moment you compare, condemn, and judge, you have stopped the process of inquiry, of insight into yourself, and the ability to find out what is true

        Love and Appreciate not Hate and Separate each other

        1. Nada

          Don’t be so sensitive. I didn’t twist your comments. I simply asked you how you could make a statement like that, knowing that cycle theory dictates a failed cycle to confirm a ICL.

          Lets be clear, I am not judging Gary on his predictions or anyone else for that matter. Of course I understand that no one knows what the market is going to do. The walking back statements is what I am highlighting.

  32. jyoung3759


    Gary you were calling for an ICL in December that should continue to fail based on my perception of your videos and now you are saying something about the 200 day EMA and short cycles. That only makes things confusing because the 200 day EMA is running along the 61.8% retracement of the longest swing and moving lower than that into the ICL would not make sense then as you suggested we would move to at least near or just below the July low but would stay above the yearly low which would mean price would have to fall below the 200 day EMA. So those two statements would contradict each other

    Overall, you always need to look at both scenarios and any good analyst takes both scenarios into account because nobody does knows what’s going to happen. There is no need to bash Gary as analysis is always open to adjustment based on what does or might happen. Gary has some very good insightful and useful analysis/comments. Be patient and see how the gold and dollar play out and adjust as time unfolds. If you are not looking t the possibility of two scenarios unfolding then you are just being foolish and ignoring things. Remember a dog can lick your hand or bite it when you reach out to pet it. Act accordingly.

    1. Nada

      @jyoung3759 . At least someone is acknowledging Gary is saying two different things here today. To be clear, I am not personally bashing Gary for anything. However, he is been one of the biggest bears on this board (short of Spanky) in the SHORT term about gold and made his forecast CRYSTAL clear. He is now obviously trying to walk back his previous statements.

      What Gary lacks is humility. He loves to gloat and beat his chest when he is correct about something, but always tries to cover his track when his predictions do not work out (manipulation).

      1. primetime


        We must remember there may be sensitive snowflakes among us. We must not give them any little reason to melt. And also, please treat the Canadians gently with kiddie gloves, therefore feelings will not be hurt.

        By the way, I appreciate all commentary today from Nada and Jyoung and yes even you to Donnie Boy.

        Wishing everyone a wonderful pre-thanksgiving weekend and I am hopeful everyone and their families are healthy and happy.

  33. Nada

    “If Cycle Theory didn’t work then how in the world did we exit at the exact top, then make a ton of money on the way down and get out at the bottom?”

    Who is saying cycle theory doesn’t work? I am saying quite the opposite. I am saying there must be a failed cycle to confirm ICL. Now you walking back your previous statements and trying to now saw that we potentially had our ICL. This is complete nonsense! WHY? Because of the way you say things. You leave NO room for possibilities, you speak as what you state is the gospel. Just like your nonsense about 20k Nasdaq.

    “If Cycle Theory didn’t work then how in the world did we exit at the exact top, then make a ton of money on the way down and get out at the bottom?

    Don’t forget my calls are made in real time there is no question on what I’m doing. Unlike Gilbert and his multiple wave counts and no real-time trades.”

    I swear, never a wasted opportunity to gloat and or attack another blogger. Gary, you TRADE A PAPER account – it MEANS NOTHING. You will simply reset if times ever get bad – like you have done in multiple times in the past.

    I am done here. I can’t take your lack of humility. I thought you had some good cycle analysis, but your outlandish statements and egotism far outweigh the good. I will not waste anymore of your time or mine on the blog. Cheers.

    1. vin

      Are you serious? There haven’t been many on this blog who have provided us with real and valuable information. You are one of those few. Please stay. Of course this blog is owned by Gary but please consider that there are many others like me who come here to learn.

      There are very few here who really know. Please do consider my request. btw I am not a person makes requests often. It is very rare in my life that I request people for anything.

      Not only I like your posts, I also find you are a decent human being, based on the way you express your views. Is it possible that you are a beautiful lady? Just kidding. You don’t have to respond to that.

  34. primetime

    Another one bites the dust….and another one’s gone, another one’s gone, another one bites the dust….

  35. allthatglitters

    “If I predict A, then B happens, and C confirms B and I recognize C’s confirmation of B, then I was right all along!”

    1. Gary Post author

      In case you haven’t figured it out, trading is all about adapting to the market in real time. If the market throws you a curveball you can either stubbornly maintain your bias and watch the market take your money away (Nada), or you can adapt to the changing environment and make money. That’s exactly what we did when I recognized the possibility for the short cycle scenario.

      Right now the currencies are not behaving as I was expecting (a perfect example of why I would never trade currencies). So I’m leaving open the possibility that I may have to enter metal trades earlier than I expected.

      I suspect the uncertainty around the tax reform next week is causing a lot of volatility and erratic behavior. So while I still think the most likely scenario is for the dollar to Rally into the tax hike on December 13th I’m not going to stubbornly hold on to that stance if it becomes clear that the Euro and the Yen are controlling the currency cycles and not the dollar.

      1. Gary Post author

        Again this is exactly why I started the challenge. Everyone has to play by the same rules as me. Those that can adapt quickly when the market throws them a curveball will make money, and those that are stubborn and unable to adapt will lose money.

  36. bluebull

    That huge SOS for SPY yesterday and the weakness today, especially in the Nasdaq, shows we need a further pullback before any further upward move in the SM. Yesterday was obviously just an pre-OPEX squeeze.

  37. Don

    Although gold has shown some promise today, by the end it turned out to be little more than a correlated move with the YEN. Until actual demand increases for the shiny metal, gold will continue to be a currency rather than as a commodity play.

    Gary, does cycle work indicate where the YEN is headed? For the time being, that is what seems to matter.

  38. desertsun999

    Gee Gary, I guess I was right again on the dollar not following through with the daily H&S breakout. Geesh, was it me that said that the weekly H&S breakout would hold on gold when you were calling for 1240 gold?
    LOL! Every time you come up with some dollar analysis that you convince everyone is spot on and then your just proven wrong again. The free advice I have given this blog is about 100 times more accurate than what you want to charge people money for.

    1. Gary Post author

      Maybe you need to read these charts again.

      I noted several weeks ago that the dollar didn’t break the cycle trend line during the Oct. dip and questioned if that could be a DCL without a break.

      I’ll say it again. This is why I created the challenge to end this kind of crap. One is either making money or they aren’t. When you failed to make any money in the challenge and gold went against your calls you just quit.

      Unfortunately I never get the opportunity to just quit. When I have a losing trade then I regroup and figure out out to make back the losses.

      So far I’m doing exceptionally well in both the metal and stock portfolio.

      Not so well in energy, but at least I didn’t listen to the idiots telling me to stop out at the ICL bottom. Instead I waited until price cycled back up to overbought and exited the trade with a gain instead of a huge loss.

      1. Gary Post author

        Like I said, there are a few people here that will constantly go against every trade I make. Their goal is obviously to catch me in a losing trade. I guarantee I will have one. Everyone does.

        In the meantime they will have missed the 9 winning trades while they wait patiently for the opportunity to tell me I’m wrong.

        And in the meantime the SMT portfolio’s just keep grinding higher.

      2. desertsun999

        Gary, I really have no idea what you are talking about. I was up around 20% in your challenge when I accidently sent a winning trade to your cox.net email. When I couldn’t get Cox to send me a copy of the email that was sent to your account I stopped participating in the challenge. I acknowledged the fault was mine and let it go at that. Its is all documented on your blog so what is up with that?

        1. Gary Post author

          You were up 17% then gold started going against your calls for higher prices and you just quit.

          Easier to quit than accept the losses and try to recover.

          Of course you could just hold Old Turkey as the bull will eventually correct all timing mistakes.

  39. dj

    Gold tested 200 day MA and went through 50 day MA today. I believe next move will be to the mid 1300 level, maybe even breaking 1400.

      1. jacob2

        History has shown that the moment a trade is declared “dead” is exactly when it is about to revive.
        Seen this time and time again. Everyone gets a get out of jail free card for changing there mind.

        This Thursday changed my mind about the dollar and inflation and bought some SILJ. Only one simple thought “Tax cuts are inflationary.” No idea if this works out. At the very least a low risk hedge on higher inflation.

  40. isavage

    Well all I see Gary is the USD has gone exactly to your line on the chart you posted so that gets everyone bearish as we can reed above.

    So excellent call. We see what happens next, but I think you will be right still as commercials have to cover still and I suspect their shorts are going up not down in today’s metal’s spike.

    It’s been an interesting week for sure!!

    Happy weekend to all

  41. Adrian

    ECRI’s WLI has turned down again, so instead go long SM, may be I will go short on sunday night.
    Nice Weekend all.

  42. Goild

    Thus, we trade money in the SM, and we trade opinions in the SMT.

    A good trader stays cool, a good trade executes stop loss.

    What a pity….

    Where are the talented traders?

    1. Gary Post author

      The good traders were never the ones that are the most vocal on the blog.

      The five leaders in the challenge almost never post to the blog. They just quietly go about their business.

      The most vocal traders want recognition from others. The actual good traders want recognition from the market.

      Trust me, the voices here that constantly fill the blog day after day, none of them have turned out to be anything better than mediocre traders. These are people with strong biases. They are unable to adapt when the market turns against their bias. Their goal is to be right. A good traders goal is to make money.

      1. Robert

        Gary maybe gold is having the same pattern as the US election night? Remember it went sideways to slightly higher dipped then a huge bounce before the flush into an ICL. Thats the only possibility im seeing for the drop, one more high maybe 1305 and then the drop? I just find it hard to believe that gold is now rdy to blast higher especially with the FED set to raise rates in Dec.

        1. Gary Post author

          It’s getting late in the cycle so upside is probably limited, but we are coming to the end of the basing phase. The next leg up will begin shortly.

          But I caution gold bugs that we aren’t going straight to the moon. Gold is entering the adolescent phase. Those tend to be 3 steps forward, 1 or 2 steps back. This phase can last for several years.

          Gold has to turn the 200 week moving average back up and that takes time.

  43. carlvan

    Having once be a sub of Gary’s blog I am returning here for some time now; it is amazing how ego is still considered more important than making money, Would ego be our internal saboteur?
    For me, I made mistakes in my trading and still do, but every day is a new day. And I will continue to find Gary’s insights here very interesting. That’s something that is more difficult to understand for me: this smart guy is sharing his work for free here (and also a paying part for sub’s, ok) and, still, he is being criticized by some people. So those people don’t pay a kopec to read his free advices and they are still complaining. Perhaps Gary you should consider not only giving your knowledge for free but also sending them money for their next losing trade? Just an idea. Seriously, keep up man, the majority is happy to read you.

    1. RTTPD

      The three or four guys who left all had ultra competitive personalities. They were all definitely smart and I learned from each of them. But their were times even I thought that these guys were more worried about praise and self adornment than putting some big coins in their pockets.

      Gary and his blog are very good and I have definitely learned more about the cycles since my year of sporadic reading.

      Just with the last couple of oil calls…..and the one going forward, I have made a few thick stacks of Franklins. Had I not been reading the blog……I would have bailed on the trades much earlier when they were only quarter/halfway from the tops.

  44. Americano

    I say this as someone who -knows- ( using price ) that Gary is JUST AS WRONG about Bitcoin as Pontus Pilate was about Jesus………

    I love Gary’s brashness with calls. I think it’s cool for him to compare his results & takes with others. If it hadn’t been for paying attention to Gary all these years I’d still be playing the victim thing jerking around in JNUG lol !

    In a world where everyone is always hedging meaning not wanting to offend – I like Gary’s style & dig his takes on the market especially how he tipped everyone to the baby bull in gold last year & how he called Nasdaq way before others. Doesn’t matter that Bitcoin will beat Nasdaq to $10K ( & $20K if ya wanna quibble lol ) Gary is Waaaaaaay more right then wrong – he can’t walk on water & he ain’t Bitcoin. 😉

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