115 thoughts on “ENTRY STRATEGY

  1. ras

    It is not as complex as the video implies. Sentiment and cycles are helpful. Use of intraday charts as well can be helpful, if one knows how to integrate different time frames.

  2. Goild

    We still have to jump over the top descending trend line to believe we have seen the bottom.
    Volume needs to increase too.
    The manipulators are becoming trickier. The did the unexpected on FOMC day.
    At any rate you got to have guts, no guts no glory if you go for the big money.
    Or, do a pyramid which is a lot more prudent.
    Right now no one would negatively criticize an entry, and so all what it takes is a
    LEAP OF FAITH.

  3. Steffmeister

    I am already “all in” very satisfied with my entry levels in most miners. It’s hard work to try to trigger a buy in 21miners.

    I hope the conventional analysts is right this time, the bear in Gold is over.

    I am more interested in the EXIT Strategy, here are som examples:

    Buying The December Lows
    Dec 2013 low: +38% in 55 days
    Dec 2014 low: +35% in 22 days
    Dec 2015 low: +139% in 164 days
    Dec 2016 low: +37% in 34 days

    I am exhausted …

    1. Bluebellkid

      GDX has been going down since it topped on Sept. 7th. The Death Cross has occurred and the 50 day moving average will now be resistance. 25 fund managers unloaded GDX in the latest quarter. The Relative Strength line is flat lining and the Relative Strength Rating is a paltry 35. The Up/Down Volume Ratio is a bearish 0.7 and the Accumulation/Distribution Rating is a bearish D (granted these two indicators are lagging indicators).

  4. Gary Post author

    Gold has broken above resistance at 1263. I’m convinced the ICL is complete. But now price is short term overbought.

    Now you have to ask yourself: How much more of the rally are you willing to miss trying to time a perfect entry?

    Intermediate rallies typically last 2-4 months. We’re only on day 5. This one should take gold over $1400. Do you quit worrying about a perfect entry and just get in so you can make some good money over the next 2-3 months? Or do you fiddle around and end up missing a big chunk of the move?

    1. Bluebellkid

      “Now you have to ask yourself: How much more of the rally are you willing to miss trying to time a perfect entry?”

      Doesn’t appear it will be much of a rally at this point.

        1. Bluebellkid

          That is true and it would have been correct – it wasn’t much of a rally. If one timed it perfectly there was a 4.50 move but no one here including myself could have done that.

  5. Cybo33

    Gary,

    I inherited some money and I would like to put it to work in the stock market. I am looking at the QQQ’s and TQQQ’s.

    I am worried that any pullback may be small. Do you think that I should put some in now in case the pullback is minor or simply wait and hope we pull back below current levels?

    Thanks for all your help.

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s too late in the intermediate cycle to buy TQQQ. That should be bought at cycle bottoms.

  6. Jimsee

    gary – will u switch to DOW when qqq gets to 10K+ waiting on a short-term headline dip to get long 2019 dia calls…may not come 🙁

  7. Goild

    Good and wise trading day to all,

    Faz,

    Doing a pyramid….

    If indeed the recent low in GDX was the low and a trap, one can note that from about GDX $22.75 (the average of the previous support) to the low of $21.25 there is a difference of $1.50. The one can expect GDX to hit $22.75+$1.50=$24.25. To pyramid enter now with 25% of the portfolio, when GDX hits $22.75 add another 25%, when it hits $23.25 add another 25%. And so forth and of the like according to how the candles develop. Of course profit is less but so risk is.

    1. Gary Post author

      Actually pyramiding increases ones risk. The only thing it reduces is the emotional anxiety.

      The least risky strategy is the one that entails the most fear. Buying at the bottom when your stop is very close. Your risk is small.

      By pyramiding each successive buy becomes further and further away from your stop increasing your risk.

    2. faz

      Hi Goild

      I feel a little flattered that you explained that for me – Thanks! Wish you many profitable trades and nice meals 🙂

      (And Thanks Gary for the clarification on risk vs stress !)

    1. JJHarmen

      LOL! Love the Mustang Sally chart. Maybe you could do one one for Pedestrian. He’s another one that disappears when he is wrong which is most of the time (yet he gets a lot of attention from Gary).

    2. faz

      Hey Nada
      Please lighten up on MS I am beginning to worry about her if this continues… People can take things to heart and you might have a bigger impact than you intended…

      Just sayin’..

      1. Nada

        Afternoon Faz. Sally and I go back a bit. If gold was making new lows, she would be busting my balls. She will be fine, I heard her bridge is rather nice.

    1. RTTPD

      I hope you’re right as I own a decent little chunk of it and my position is under water. 4500 shares @ 9.22. Really got caught by the falling knife on that one.

      1. LeilaniFarms

        Not sure when you bought at that price but DANG that is a nice chunk of change! 🙂

        You will be in the Green soon enough and if you hold long enough you are going to look back and be so happy with yourself that you held on. AG is a big mover and is breaking out quick.

        1. RTTPD

          I’d have to look at my account but I bought somewhere near the time Trump got elected thinking we’d see a rally and the opposite happened.

          My underwater position with AG has been offset by EXK GPL and CDE -all positive at this point.

          1. Jim Dandy

            I own all those too, and several other good ones through the SILJ silver junior etf. I bormally am not a fan on etfs, but this obe did +358% in the 2016 bull, blowing away the aldo respectable 188% the HUI did

            Good luck, will be nice if we get a repeat in 2018. Im not counting on a repeat but thibl he silver miners got well overdone on the downside.

        1. RTTPD

          I appreciate your optimism!

          Dandy —-

          I don’t like ETFS either but I took a look at SILJ after I saw you mentioned it the other day — I like it and will definitely buy on the next round.

    1. LeilaniFarms

      Yea the charts look ripe for another breakout to the upside for Gold and Silver. Maybe Gold will get up to its 50 EMA at around 1272-1273?

      JNUG up another 2.5% so far only 1 hour into the trading session, so far so good!

  8. jacob2

    BTC financing of speculative jr. gold mines? A new twist I believe.

    Evidently some miners usually the most speculative of The Jr’s are contemplating funding mine development and startup by offering a crypto ico. Don’t understand any of this but supposedly the big benefit is non share dilution for shareholders.

    Fraud? My inclination is to run not walk form miners involved in this. Crypto financing of commodity producers hmm.

    1. LeilaniFarms

      Investing in BlockChain infrastructure is much different than investing in individual crypto currencies. Here’s how you need to look at it. Look at the “BlockChain” technology as your iPhone and BitCoin as a Wells Fargo app and Ethereum as let’s say JP Morgan.

      Yea they are cool they can be used to make payments, store money, etc…but the real game changer lies in the actual BlockChain technology itself.

      I like what HIVE BlockChain Technologies is doing. If you are looking into investing into the BlockChain infrastructure then HIVE could be worth looking into if you DO NOT want to buy any individual crypto currencies.

      1. jacob2

        Owned a lot of OSTK my proxy BTC pick which I sold recently for a triple. Today up another 30 percent. The brave new world appears to have legs but decided to buy some bombed out gold stocks instead. HAbit or perhaps bad habit time will tell.

        1. LeilaniFarms

          Congrats on your picks along with timing.

          As far as precious metals is concerned I don’t see a better time to buy in the last few years (besides December 2015) as far as miners are concerned.

          I just don’t know how to analyze or even value BitCoin properly and Price Action along with current Sentiment (every day news headlines read: BitCoin) leads me to believe we have hit the top. Even if we haven’t it would have to hit $100k for it be a 5 bagger from this point.

          I am more confident in JNUG reaching 60 again (5x) vs BitCoin hitting $100k. Plus, with all of the wallets and exchanges getting hacked it is a gamble to say the least.

          I’ll stick with the gold miners at this point in time. But again, congrats on your trades.

        1. LeilaniFarms

          I wasn’t even aware of the word Hashgraph until yesterday when I got my email from GoldSilver.com announcing the new Hidden Secrets of Money. I’ve seen all the previous ones and am super excited to see this one as well. Will probably watch it in the coming days.

          If this is true, then this confirms that BitCoin will pop sooner than later. LiteCoin and Ethereum is superior in terms of speed when comparing to BitCoin. Now I’m curious to see what this Hashgraph is all about.

  9. Andy

    Following Gary’s recommendation of just getting into the game….whether we have a small pullback or not. Bought Jan 2019 GDX $25 calls.

    1. Jim Dandy

      I am pretty well loaded already, but also just put in some buy limit irders below market prices to add to positions, in case we can get a day or two pullback.

    2. vin

      Andy if Gary is right again, then there is a much higher probability that gdxj will significantly outperform gdx. Good luck.

  10. jskauai

    https://goldtadise.com/?p=418963
    Trilogy Metals announces a New Large Shareholder and the Company’s CEO Significantly Increases his Share Position

    December 19, 2017 Download PDF
    December 19, 2017 – Vancouver, British Columbia – Trilogy Metals Inc. (TSX/NYSE American: TMQ) (“Trilogy Metals” or “the Company”) announces that a wholly-owned subsidiary of South32 Limited (ASX/JSE/LSE: S32) (“South32”) has become a new significant shareholder of the Company owning approximately 6.5 million common shares of the Company or approximately 6% of the outstanding common shares. Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse, the Company’s Chief Executive Officer has also increased his shareholdings of Trilogy Metals by approximately 1.7 million shares, owning approximately 2.8 million common shares of the Company or approximately 2.6%. South32 and Mr. Van Nieuwenhuyse have purchased shares from a previous shareholder.

    *How is it possible or could someone explain how a stock that has an average volume of 265K per day have a trade at 9:37am this morning of 6.5 million shares and on my 1 minute chart the bar shows it went from 83 cents to 86 cents HUH? Where is the supply and demand balance? explanation please!*

    1. Nada

      I am surprised with gold’s resilience in respect to yields going ape shit today. USDJPY is certainly not helping matters as well.I suspect USDJPY level skipped and has a bit of work todo.

        1. Gary Post author

          Considering the juniors have already broken their intermediate down trend line, the odds are very high that I am correct again.

          One can either stick to their plan and buy the dip, or they can let the rally pass them by as I described in the video. The longer one waits for their emotions to give the all clear the further ones stop moves away and the more risk you take on.

  11. Goild

    It might be that the miners and gold are starting to lose the luster and will go down.
    We shall see.
    I am done for the day. 🙂
    CLOSED ANT SHOP

    1. Herman

      Gold is building its launch platform. Another .238% retracement, picture perfect a little under 1259.

      GDXJ bounced also exactly at .238, @31.79.

  12. JJHarmen

    Minor pullback for the S&P today. Everyone and his dog are jumping in on these chicken shit drops. One of these days we will get a real correction but who knows when. I am not brave enough to short a market in vertical mode.

    1. Gary Post author

      I would say smart money sees what is happening and they are using any pullback to buy or add.

      10,000 is going to be a piece of cake. 20,000 isn’t out of the question.

      By the way, sentiment isn’t excessively bullish yet in stocks. We could still have 2-3 more weeks before things really start to get overheated.

      1. lobster

        Hey Gary,

        Having been around long enough, I know that when you talk about “10,000 is going to be a piece of cake, 20,000 isn’t out of the question”, I know that you are referring to the NASDAQ Composite. However, since you make this comment often, it might be convenient if you specify that for those who are casual observers of your comments and/or newcomers. Just an observation.

  13. Gary Post author

    This is exactly what I covered in the video. All the people claiming to be waiting for a pullback now have one. The problem is that in real time you start to wonder if it’s a pullback or whether gold is rolling over and going to make another lower low.

    So you end up not being able to pull the trigger.

  14. Goild

    Two weeks ago I lost $10K.
    Today I am even. 🙂
    The loss affected me as I was hunting for a bottom and missed loading at JNUG $12.07 as I had the $10K scar. One more lesson to learn.

  15. Don

    It would appear that the bond market is finally starting to recognize that interest rates are going up. Even after today’s drop for TLT, I am just barely profitable on my TMV. The churning has been going on for weeks.

  16. Don

    The biotechs can’t seem to gain any traction for upside. They are another sector that has gotten into a churning stage as in going nowhere.

    1. didier

      John bought gdxj at the height of 2011 and kept them them quite some time while they were tanking. In 2011/13/14 he knew nothing about making money. Maybe he learned something since. Let’s say he’s a novice trader at best. And hopefully not a crook.

  17. Goild

    Don,

    I think I am done with UVXY. It is a difficult security to trade. One has very little idea what is going on.

    1. isavage

      Not a bad decision Goild. Uvxy is only survivable with use of regular cover buy XIV and getting losses cleared on the next pullback. Until the BIG ONE hits and then you need the discipline to get out of the way and let it run free.

      It’s not an easy relationship. However I’m addicted and have been long /short as you may remember for around 5 years and I’m still solvent, so can’t be that bad lol 😉

  18. Nada

    No save for USD today. She closed below the 10ma. I would like to see another close tomorrow to confirm;
    https://gyazo.com/df32a38671358a169955f1a471f2a061

    and don’t forget to sell the break of trendline. Sometimes being a bitch is not enough;
    https://gyazo.com/d7614338cf96d506f381f037b38370d6

    Millennial Ted is probably losing his shit about now. I heard the police were called to his parents house. Dilly Dilly!
    https://gyazo.com/921493cfa9be816910fc8accc768d462

  19. Goild

    isavage,

    Well, best wishes for your trading on such securities.
    Also best wishes for the holiday season.
    Let us see what the next year will bring in trading!

  20. Rango

    Gary any good books you can recommend to learn about your cycle strategies: ICL, DCL etc

    I tried to find something on amazon but ICL keywords but don’t really produce anything of relevance.

    Thank you in advance

    1. didier

      Me too i searched for it but found nothing so to speak. Cycle are difficult to understand. I don’t know why, but that’s the way it is.

    1. didier

      Yes but i looked into bressert on Amazon and remember thinking his books seemed oudated and complicated to me. I should give it another try?

      1. didier

        Cycles seems to be an important trading tool. So why aren’t there more books written on this topic? Strange.

  21. MiSmart

    There are several old articles from Bressert.

    I’m not an expert, but I think Cycles are not enough. One need to work with other tools like sentiment and Gary has a special feeling about trading with a lot of experience. That’s what I think.

    Gary could explain better than me.

    I’ve some years of experience in trading but I feel I know nothing. I think the tools I’ve tried are useless. They are all market’s reactifs, they aren’t pro-actifs.

  22. Goild

    Here are some good tools for trading:

    Being patient.
    Learning about oneself.
    Keeping it simple.
    Making a log of the weeds and weeding out one by one.
    Playing little money.

  23. Roy Batty

    BCH Bitcoin Cash has gone up over 200% today. $2,100 yesterday and $8,500 now on GDAX. Crazy volatility.

    1. isavage

      BTC holders just switching to BCH as it’s better. Been happening for weeks just today popping as Coinbace said they are adding it to their exchange

      1. Roy Batty

        Yeah, I checked as soon as I got the email from Coinbase notifying the addition of BCH. It being better is your opinion.

  24. isavage

    Gary hears a thought for you. You get the blow off top via BLOCKCHAIN TECH a kind of Dot.com frenzy X 2.

    BTC that you are so down on is not the point & i think is blinding you. As i have pointed out before its all about the blockchain that all cryptos work on not the coins.

    Here is an page that make the point well

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-a-dot-com-style-collapse-in-bitcoin-wont-kill-blockchain-2017-12-19

    I positioned some weeks ago in all available Blockchain & related stocks i could find – the gains have been the best in my investing life – it may go on for a year or more if we are doing Dot.com madness x 2

    i was not aggressive enough in 1998 -1999 this time i’m well positioned along with Miners & PM’s

    1. Gary Post author

      The crash in tech didn’t kill the tech sector but it did take it 15 years to recover.

      The housing crash didn’t kill the real estate market but it has taken 10 years to recover.

      Block chain isn’t going to survive as a viable technology, it’s way too slow. Maybe hashgraph but I’m still not convinced we need a distributed ledger system.

      When the crash comes it will be a ling time recovering just like all the previous bubbles.

      1. Roy Batty

        You’re conflating market indexes with internet technology. Internet technology flourished after the bubble popped as did many internet companies.

      2. isavage

        Ok Gary i get your points above. But saying things like “but I’m still not convinced we need a distributed ledger system.” sounds to me like why would you what a mobile phone or Who needs to use email or who would buy anything on the internet in the 1990’s to me.

        If its Blockchain or hashgraph is still not really the point – its the DLT (distributed ledger Technology) that all these company’s are investing in & you are betting they have wrong.

        https://entethalliance.org/members/

        It’s going to be wiled ride that’s for sure from here to there, but no reason why not take some advantage of the opportunitys.

  25. zkotpen

    Gary,

    Congrats on a great video. This definitely makes its way into your top 10 videos that I have seen.

    With that in mind, I wonder why you don’t heed prudent caveats:

    1. Keep it in the here & now, aka the present, without looking back. If you misrepresent the past on your marketing materials, you risk legal repercussions. If a poster misrepresents the past on your blog, it doesn’t matter, because they aren’t selling anything, so they can lie, exaggerate, make stuff up, and it only affects their rep. You are held to a different standard, legally.

    2. Keep it in the present, without looking too much into the future. Cycle tools are working just fine at all times and all time frames. You need math & science to perceive larger degrees of cycle as well as smaller ones. These are not part of your skill set — another potential trap for you. You’re best at Intermediate, Daily, and Half cycles. Going out too far runs the risk of Blue Sky — which also has legal ramifications.

    3. Why the constant conflict? Who cares what Avi or Rickerds says? Who cares what some poster says? The constant jousting distracts from the task at hand.

    Again, this may even be your best video ever — on the free blog!

    If you or others wonder why I still tune into your videos — it’s not to joust. I hate jousting. I tune in because sometimes you post content like this video — which is EXCELLENT, RELEVANT, and USEFUL.

    😉

    1. LeilaniFarms

      Due to the fact that you spent all that time and energy typing that post above, I’m going to waste a little bit of my time as well.

      You sir, are a clown looking for attention. Your entire post meant NOTHING to traders looking to buy or sell any type of market. You are simply here to try and stir the pot.

      Beat it clown!

      1. vin

        “clown”? I would’t insult clowns (funny people) by calling this nuisance a clown. Please find a more appropriate title for this thing.

  26. Goild

    Good and wise trading day,

    We will see how we make money today.

    Despite I said I will mess anymore with UVXY I am tempted to get in.

    Any UVXY takers?

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