119 thoughts on “Gold – WE’RE “CLOSE ENOUGH””

  3. jskauai

    Thanks Gary, I agree with you it appears all systems go for a rally in PM arena. Many thought, including myself, that gold was going to tag the rising trend line connecting the lows off 2015/16 bottom completing a bullish backtest. This action is also more confirmation we are in early stages of a new bull confirming your view there. It looks good but I would have liked to have made a physical purchase of some supper cheap silver but it did not reach my $15.25 target and I never chase price.

  4. Goild

    I just read this elsewhere and I like it for trading:

    “You need to be very good at whatever you set out to do if it is not going to become a both expensive, pointless and disappointing experience. “

  5. palobar

    That is quite interesting that you put another video on Gold even though you made a video just two days ago and there was no price action in the meantime:) which demonstrates again that markets are ruled by the human consciousness which affects the markets even during the w/e.

    I used to follow COT data from http://www.timingcharts.com where they had among other many useful indicators relating to changes in the COT data. Unfortunately, they updated their website without including the tools they had before on COT data.

    Happy trading to everyone.

    2. Nada

      Lol, I knew it.. about 50 posts later, the reference to likestaco blog service hits SMT. Likestaco loves to pump his service, it will be a matter of time before the references intensify.

  9. Goild

    Some thoughts about Bitcoin are as usual, it is about money and power competition.
    Those who created it are like old turkeys, already very rich and out of the bandwagon.
    Bitcoin is reminiscent of the emperor’s new cloths:
    http://www.pitt.edu/~dash/type1620.html
    I do not know too much and often I am wrong.
    Bitcoin can become a standard. Who knows.
    Apparently there is nothing to back it up, One day, the value might be a few cents, from day to night.
    It is not clear if it will survive a geopolitical event,
    Though it might be a wonderful vehicle for day trading.

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  11. Goild

    As per gold so far nothing has changed since 2013 where gold is in a sideways channel with average about $1220. There has no been yet a master undercut below $1200.00.
    The channel is becoming old and the SM is becoming ripe to stagnate or crack to fuel gold.
    Gary, noting of the flattening of the 200 days MA brings optimism.
    The weekly and monthly candles aren’t bullish yet.
    Bitcoin is sucking good money.
    But there is a gold global bottom for sure. Likely not below $1100.0.
    Gold isn’t doing bad as it is +20% or so since the low at $1050.00.
    The current monthly gold cycle, and the previous two ones, have lasted 12 months each.
    Per this current cycle gold is perhaps about to change guard.
    Monthly volume in GLD has been steadily decreasing to the same level it had on December 2015 prior to the baby bull.
    Perhaps and along Gary’s point, it would not be unwise to get into gold.
    Playing a pyramid would be wiser.
    No guts not glory, that is the bottom line.

    1. Roy Batty

      It’s worth noting that criminals are the first adopters of pretty much every new technology. Think pagers, cell phones, smart phones. I guess they all should have died using your strange logic.

  13. Gary Post author

    Well so far everything is playing out perfectly. The vertical phase in stocks is accelerating as it becomes clear that the tax reform is going to be passed in time for the Christmas break. And gold continues to move higher. Just a little bit more and I think we will be able to confirm that the cycle has bottomed.

    Most will sit on the sidelines just like they always do at cycle bottoms and won’t enter until many percentage points have gone by as they wait for their emotions to give them the all clear signal.

    Human nature never changes. No matter how many of these turns I get right almost no one ever listens to me, because emotions are stronger than logic.

    1. Nada

      Currently – The 78.6 fib was the sweet spot and 1 day before FOMC. I still see a lot of traders in tradingview community expecting a break below 1200 and are still trying to short this late in the cycle. Having mustang Sally short is an added bonus.

      1. Gary Post author

        Most traders become excessively bearish at bottoms and excessively bullish at tops. It’s why the sentiment levels hit extremes at turning points, because almost everyone is on the wrong side of the market.

        This is why it’s so important to have a subscription to sentimentrader so one can monitor sentiment levels. Otherwise you can fall victim to group think at the exact wrong time when you should instead be splitting off from the herd.

        For all the claims of being great traders, as we’ve seen most on here are no different than anyone else. They just follow the herd. And they run off the cliff with the rest of the herd at pretty much every one of these cycle turning points.

        And usually those most vocal about their successes are also the ones most afraid of entering the challenge.

      2. RTTPD

        .” I still see a lot of traders in tradingview community expecting a break below 1200 and are still trying to short this late in the cycle. Having mustang Sally short is an added bonus. ”

        I almost choked and spit up a gulp of coffee while reading this…..

  14. roadrunner

    Enjoy the show this week. It is going to be exciting. When the enemy is destroying themselves, you let them.

  16. ocram

    Gary,
    I’d be tempted to buy Denison Mines an uranium based stock.
    What do you think about uranium? Could have it bottomed and be in a new bull market?
    I’d like to knows also what all of you SMT bloggers think about Denison Mines and uranium,thanks.

    1. LeilaniFarms

      It is also an excellent to get into some LONG Uranium plays. To be honest though, I haven’t done enough research on individual companies to give you any good recommendations. More than likely I would play URA (Global X Uranium Fund) as well as probably UEC (Uranium Energy Corp)

      I believe you are correct though when looking at the Uranium market, good time to buy!

      2. Spanglish Inquisition

        I don’t trust AMir Adnani at all. That guy gifts himelf millions of shares from all of his companies. I’d stay away from the UEC pump/dumpers.

        The safest Uranium plays are Cameco, which will go 10-20x during a bull market, and Fission Corp which will probably get bought by Cameco or other, and go 10-50x during a bull market.

        That’s just my 2 sats.

    1. LeilaniFarms

      That falls perfectly in line with the previous Rallies when looking at Weekly silver charts. I noticed the last 3 rallies, from where price is currently at, was around 7-8 weeks each. Happy Trading Nada

  21. LeilaniFarms

    Gary, quick question. I noticed that there are “gaps” quite often with GDXJ. Normally, with FX, as you know Gaps tend to get filled sooner or later.

    Does the same apply to gaps in these mining ETF’s?

    1. Gary Post author

      More often than not gaps do get filled. It’s the bread and butter trade of most hedge funds.

  22. Nada

    Sally two toes was chatty this weekend, but my guess she is currently packing her backs in preparation for her annual trip back home, to the retirement bridge she calls home. I might even speculate she is on the phone this morning to her “genius” nephew, discussing their flawed mabel marker.

  25. LeilaniFarms

    Gary, not very important question here but was wondering if you have rough numbers of JNUG as to when they would Split / Reverse Split the stock? Seems as though they like to keep it between $5 – $50?

    What are your thoughts?

    1. jskauai

      “Can’t get any worse can It?” It sure can Great Basin gold and Sunshine Mining went to zero and shareholders got the “shaft”! And if they don’t go to zero they can stay at depressed levels for a loooong time. Why don’t you buy some primero mining that one is real cheap…

        1. jskauai

          “Yes, you are absolutely right they could both end up worthless, but I think not”. Yes, I believe you are right that they will not end up worthless but they very well may end up worth less.

      1. Nada

        Good question. Typically a strong USDJPY is good for the US markets. The powers at be will ramp USDJPY to get the algos buying. A nice combo is monkey hammering volatility and ramping USDJPY. However, with these markets.. USDJPY could fall off a cliff and markets will make ATHs.

  31. Nada

    I would suspect, that the dollar will not confirm its move down into a declining intermediate cycle until the tax reform is out of the way.

    “Sometimes being a bitch is all a woman’s got to hold on to.”

    1. Gary Post author

      This is a mistake. We are very early in a brand-new intermediate cycle. You can either enter now on day 4 or you can wait 2 months and enter at the top.

      1. vin

        Thanks Gary. I truly appreciate your kindness. It is really not a concern for me as I am very heavily loaded with gold/golds. But, I will certainly keep your advise in mind. In my opinion you are excellent.

  33. JJHarmen

    Monthly\y S&P chart is still in the parabolic stage and on the verge of going completely vertical. Impressive.

  34. LeilaniFarms

    Looks like Gold tagged 1263.86 and will probably continue higher until 1272.

    Next levels for Silver is 16.23 (still didn’t tag it as I had expected) and then 16.57.

    These are my targets for the next 2 trading days or so.

  36. Bob

    One thing I’ve noticed from the 2015 and 2016 December gold play is that in both of these periods gold was slow to start accelerating upwards (Gary has previously pointed this out) and stayed in a lower range for 3-5 weeks. In both cases there seemed to be two low points for the miners followed by a third which went lowest – it was very significant in January 2016 when the miners dropped dramatically. While an interesting observation it’ll be interesting to see if a similar pattern holds this time although I wouldn’t bet the farm on it.

  39. Bluebellkid

    There’s not a lot of buying interest in GDX/GDXJ/NUGT/JNUG at this point and with 3 of the 4 bumping up against the 50 day as I type I see no urgency in jumping in. The Death Cross has occurred so they need to take out the 50 day with convincing volume before I commit any money.

    1. LeilaniFarms

      I also usually look at the 50 EMA on the D1 chart along with the 20 EMA for overall confirmation of trend. However, I was never any good at finding bottoms and tops using these moving averages. The only way I personally can spot overall trend changes is by using Price Action at Support / Resistance at Monthly, Weekly, and sometimes Daily charts.

      However, I do agree with you that once price closes above the 50 EMA on Daily chart it helps bring in the momentum traders and will move price quickly more often than not.

        1. LeilaniFarms

          Here is one definition from Google: This movement is quite often analyzed with respect to price changes in the recent past. In simple terms, price action is a trading technique that allows a trader to read the market and make subjective trading decisions based on the recent and actual price movements, rather than relying solely on technical indicators.

          Another from Investopedia: Price action is the movement of a security’s price. Price action is encompassed in technical and chart pattern analysis, which attempt to find order in the sometimes seemingly random movement of price. Swings (high and low), tests of resistance and consolidation are some examples of price action.

          I look at Price Action at areas of Support / Resistance first starting at the Monthly then Weekly charts. Then last I will look at Price Action on Daily charts. There are only a few types of candle patterns I pay attention to (which IS the Price Action).

        2. Bluebellkid

          Price action refers to how something closes the day and more importantly the week. Stocks that are under accumulation tend to close strong and near the highs of the week. And you use volume action to confirm that what you think is going on really is. Cycle traders will ignore the fact a stock/etf made a new 52 week high on lackluster volume and the close of the week is not near the highs of the week and think it is time to buy.

    3. vin

      I feel the same way i.e. there will more opportunities on the way if we are really out of the woods though for different reasons.

  40. Jimsee

    Dec12 was indeed the print low for gold and silver, this is significant insight into the market structure imo – bearish views are strongly held and will require a lot of upside to change – that’s a BEAUTIFUL thing.

    Good luck all.

  41. ted

    For those who were afraid to get into BTC, I mentioned buying GBTC at $750. It’s $3,200 now. It trades like a stock. Liquid, and easy to get in and out.

    It’s not too late. But hey look, JNUG is up 73 cents. Wow.

      1. ted

        Gary, I do like how bearish you are on BTC. Bubbles never end when everyone thinks they are one. I think BitCoin is where internet stocks were in 1998. Everyone was calling bubble, and it went on for 2 more years (the Nasdaq went from 2000 to 5000). You will be right one day. But it feel empty, because the BTC top could be at $100,000+. And while it will deflate greatly, you will have missed one of the most euphoric runs in history!

      2. Nada

        Not sure if you noticed, but now you have individuals with their own subscription services trying to come here and tout their alleged trades in bitcoin. The board blew up this weekend from one said individual. Point being, I guess they don’t know how it works around here. Posting BS hindsight trades and saying “BOOM” after the fact is typical behavior of clowns trying to act as if they have clout.

        In my opinion, there is nothing more disrespectful than an individuals who runs a paid service trying to advertise on your site.

  45. Goild

    Today I truly scalped all the way to get paid.
    About 90 executions. The house gets about $360.
    The slippage rats were benevolent today.
    The swing account with the 1K JNUG shares I am holding, gets automatic money.

  47. Nada

    Dollar bulls are fighting hard today. I tell ya, can’t wait for the this tax bill BS to be done. What will be the next rumor – infrastructure?

    1. Jim Dandy

      $20K for an imaginary coin with no backing seems like a fair price, especially since it was only $6 a piece a couple years ago. None of the bitcoin trolls has an sell plan to cash out, even after a billion % return in 4 years. This tells me they bought the bubble hook, line and sinker, and it´s the reason Bitcoin only has gone up, nobody wants to think of selling=very few sellers. But like anything, that will change, and unfortunately for those so deep in the ¨fundamentals¨of bitcoin, they will watch it go all the way down as they argue the same points they keep jabbering about today.

      When do you sell? I´m not expecting as answer, but one should remember there are two sides to every succesful trade and you must take profits at some point. I know they can´t hear me, bc bitcoin moves money across borders, and has limited supply (they think), and no real competition bc it was first to market. The ¨fundamentals¨wont matter one bit once people late to the party get nervous and start selling.

      1. Americano

        Poor thing.
        The shrillness of your “answer me” requests have undoubtedly caused Bitcoin holders to:
        1) Embrace the Christmas Spirit.
        2) By NOT sharing that info with you because the tenor of your requests ONLY suggests that it would serve to cause you more distress & be “rubbing it in”.
        A Christmas Carol is a wonderful movie this time of year Jim Dandy.

        1. Jim Dandy

          You sound like a kid in love. Get back to me when you cash out, then we can decide how great of a decision you have made. Until then, you just performing mental masturbation.

    2. Bluebellkid

      I beg to differ. GDX normally trades 34.6 mm shares and today traded 26.5 mm or way below average and was up a whopping 17 cents and you consider that very strong. GDXJ did a little better – it traded slightly more than average and was up 52 cents. GDXJ is sitting one cent above the 50 day on the weekly chart so it is do or die here. It is just Monday so there is plenty of time for the weekly chart to print a “very strong” move but not today LeilaniFarms.

        1. Bluebellkid

          I went thru the whole Mining group today and there are precious few individual stocks that even warrant a second look. At this point the group does not look like it is poised to bust a move. And most have experienced the Death Cross and will have to deal with resistance in the form of the 50 day moving average. I’ve witnessed too many head fakes with the miners to get sucked into this move this early. IF and that is a big IF they can muster up a move above resistance and do it on convincing volume then I will be more confident the move is for real but for now I’m on the sidelines as far as miners go. Yeah, I could miss a little bit of the move if it is the real deal but better safe than sorry.

          1. Gary Post author

            Of course the problem with waiting is that ones stop is getting further and further away.

            Any stop other than the cycle low and you run the risk of getting stopped out of a winning trade.

            Waiting for “confirmation” doesn’t mean one is going to avoid a drawdown. In fact it often guarantees a drawdown as by the time everyone is convinced the move is real that usually means short term sentiment has reached an extreme and the asset temporarily runs out of buyers.

            If sentiment is extreme, and it’s late in a cycle more often than not buying the swing turns out to be a pretty good strategy. It’s not 100%, but I think it’s better than letting 5-10% go by and then having your stop a long ways below you and at risk of suffering an immediate drawdown having to buy into overbought conditions.

          2. Gary Post author

            And then again most people that say they will wait for confirmation but then once they have it they find they can’t buy overbought conditions.

            They end up with analysis paralysis.

            Perfect example with the metals. Everyone was waiting to buy to pullback. Then once the pullback turned into an extended ICL everyone became fearful. The pullback became more serious than everyone was expecting. So most got stopped out of their early buys and then were unable to pull the trigger at the bottom for fear of another losing trade.

            Now they have become fearful when they should be greedy. They don’;t trust the initial signs of a bottom. By the time they do start to trust then price is overbought. Now they are fearful of buying because they don’t want to hold through a drawdown. But during the advancing phase of a new intermediate cycle price tends to stay overbought. So they end up missing a big chunk of the move worried about the overbought conditions.

      2. LeilaniFarms

        I remember you mentioning in your previous post how you are looking for high volume as confirmation. Apparently you didn’t see my post the other day in regards to volume in GDXJ but on December 13 there were 23,000,000 shares traded. There were only 2 other days in the second half of 2017 that experienced this much volume.

        I got in on 12/12 and am up 15% already. If it is “dor or die here” as you put it I could pot a stop loss back @ 12.67 to protect myself from any loss whatsoever. I try to spot trend reversal and get in BEFORE all of the momentum and indicator traders start hopping in.

    1. Spanglish Inquisition

      Lolz. Well to be fair, I rode JDST and made about 15% on that, and then switch to nugt options last week. 🙂

      I am learning Play it both ways, thanks to Gary’s help removing the emotional dogma.

  53. Spanglish Inquisition

    NUGT JAN 05 2018 30.00 C +99.85 % (12/11 smaller position)
    NUGT MAR 16 2018 40.00 C +11.09 %
    GDX JUN 15 2018 28.00 C +20.08 %
    NUGT JUN 15 2018 40.00 C +6.36 %

    Just some trades I put on 12/11 and 12/12. I put on the bigger ones as I watched the FOMC reaction. I prepped these trades the week leading up to the announcement. These are smaller positions for me, because I am still learning options. But if NUGT actually hits 40$ or 140$, the Implied Volatility should double or triple, which will rocket my premiums. Potential June gains of 20-30x.

    Will see how the perform over the next few months.

  55. x33e

    Gary, Naz reached 7000 today – congratulations on that call. Since September, pullbacks have found support between the daily 20 and 50 smas. You have mentioned that you believe the market will now increase its angle of ascent. At this stage, what is a realistic expectation for a pullback?

  57. tomsem1

    Gary, Do you have any comments on the biotechs, XBI and BBP? The biotechs seem to be lagging the market, is this a bad area to invest now during the stock market bubble?

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