For whatever reason the comments have disappeared from the last post. Seems like everytime we do an update to wordpress it causes a problem. I’m trying to contact my IT guy to fix the problem. In the meantime I’ll open another post here so people can comment.
I get to be the first this time. 😀
As I said in the last post, gold and silver are DOA, let them RIP to the downside. 🙁
Did you see Euro today ? Dollar index ?
This is a classic example of what happens to trader mentality during a long consolidation. They become despondent because price didn’t do what they wanted it to do in the time they wanted it to happen. So they become frustrated and move to something else.
But as most traders know the bigger the consolidation the bigger the rally that follows once the consolidation is finished. I used this same principle to predict the rally in the stock market.
Most traders become the most bearish and give up right before they should be the most bullish.
We did exactly that and we’ve ridden this rally all the way up from almost the exact bottom in December. It still has a long way to go yet. And yes at some point there will be a move down into a DCL just like there was a move down into a HCL. The HCL didn’t stop the rally and the next DCL isn’t going to stop the rally.
The dollar has confirmed a bear market.
It’s really bad for me. Eating up my gains since I trade with euros. And I can’t exit my positions because of the f****g MIFID II that forbids retailers to buy ETFs.
Where in Europe are you located?
Gary, how many DCLs are most common during an intermediate advance? What is the range? Is there ever more than 4?
3-4 tends to be the norm. But the last one only had two because they both stretched.
QE, market intervention, and currency manipulation are causing a lot of cycles everywhere to stretch
This is the problem I have with Cycles. They morph, stretch, get aborted, get recounted so a lot of uncertainty. And most of the time there is a discrepancy between you Cycle guys as to where we are in the count.
Well nothing is 100%. But as a tool for trading it’s better than probably 90% of the things others use. Certainly many times better than volume or chart patterns.
In real time the metal portfolio is up about 250% over the last two years. Using cycles and sentiment I have managed to call the last three ICL’s almost to the penny and the last two IC tops almost perfectly as well. And not by producing a bunch of alternate scenarios like most analysts do.
I’m certainly going to miss one at some point, but that won’t negate the last five good calls, even though the trolls will act like it does.
Again this is the reason for the challenge. Everyone has to play on the same level playing field. No more Monday morning quarterbacking here.
Just pointing out the truth there Gary, no need to get fired up -if it works for you then good but I have seen too many times when it didn’t. You said you checked out IBD but by making the statement about chart patterns I beg to differ. The stock market repeats itself over and over and over. I have even heard you refer to the cup with handle pattern which is one of the most common and powerful chart patterns (there are double bottom bases, saucers, three weeks tight, and the rare ascending base). I cant say for sure but would not be surprised to find out that the cup originated with William O’Neill the founder of IBD. It was something he noticed back in the 80’s when they did the 30 year computer generated research of what the best performing stocks of all time all had in common – the cup pattern was one of the characteristics. The cup is nothing more than a consolidation/correction as a stock makes it climb. The thing about patterns is it is not just about the look – there is a bunch of criteria that proper cups or proper double bottoms must exhibit in order to ensure success or have a better chance for success. As far as Monday morning quarterbacking – you do most of that – you are always putting up charts and telling us what happened. I did this with price and volume action and got lambasted. As I agreed to also was that cycles can help with spotting bottoms and price and volume action can help spot tops if you would just give it a chance. I guarantee you that this market will flash red flags and outright sell signals at the top for those savvy enough to know what they are. And here is another tidbit about markets – three out of four stocks will do what the overall markets are doing regardless of fundamentals.
All of my trades are taken in real time. No Monday Morning quarterbacking here.
I didn’t say trading I said chart reading.
The 100 WMA has crossed above the 200 WMA and price is holding above both.
A new bull market is underway and should start to accelerate soon.
There is no doubt at this point that stocks are in the early stages of a bubble. If we get a correction over the next couple of weeks I doubt it will do more than test the bull channel breakout before resuming the upward march.
10,000 is going to be a piece of cake.
20,000 isn’t out of the question when we get to the really nutty phase of the bubble.
Wise and good trading day to all!
Let us make money this morning.
Do not give back any cent to the market.
The market does not care if you give her money, she is filthy rich.
The market is neither young or beautiful.
Aloha, Good Morning, & Happy Trading.
Goild, you are too funny lol
I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again. One has to take everything in the metals sector with a grain of salt. Charts are painted to cause retail traders and hedge funds to make mistakes.
The miners were driven down further than they should have been during the HCL to cause traders to panic and sell their shares to the banks at cheaper prices.
If you haven’t figured it out by now, charting is pretty much worthless in this sector.
You are welcome 🙂
I thought the Semi’s were just going to keep going but they have made a new high and reversed so we will see if that holds. Buying some SOXS for a swing trade.
BTC off to a good start on the way to 25k, consolidate there then 60k by summer. Could easily reach 120k by end of summer.
So tell us specifically what you bought or own, instead of just spewing ridiculous targets 9 months off. Anybody can make predictions at no cost, but few can trade.
GBTC, in at 1534 average. Will add if we drop below 1450 again. I think the bottom is in but still not confirmed.
And the targets are not ridiculous.
YES, I KNOW about the GBTC premium. It gets a 90:1 split on Monday. Should bring in tons of small retailers since it will be about 20 buck range
GBTC to 5k by the end of the month is very possible.
All that matters today is that the DOW has made a new high and that’s good for the news. The rest of the day doesn’t matter although it looks like it might actually conclude as a down day. Techs and semis leading the charge again, as usual. Me, I am planning to take a holiday with my meager profits on GDX .
I have been day trading with UVXY.
A surprise is the Fidelity allows me to have 2X margin.
Yesterday I had about 50K shares at $9.14. Was too chicken to leave them on the table.
UVXY is appearing as a good alternative to day trade whenever JNUG is lazy.
Goild , you went from trading 1500 shares of UVXY to 50000 in one day. Did someone leave you a large inheritance?
It would have been nice to have an inheritance.
My trading accounts crossed the 0.5 M benchmark 🙂
The way I get into so many shares is unwise. The knife is falling and I insist, get stubborn, and plunge into more shares. Usually I do not loose, and make some crumps as the heat is intense and I look for relief.
A few times it does not work and I lose big such as on 2/27 last year. It cost me $27K to be that stupid.
Goild, I know, I have been there as well and this was my most stupid and damageable mistake; I learned than averaging down is never a good idea, same thing than casino, and the house always wins then. The worst thing that can happen is that you are lucky doing this, because then you will do it again.
Sold JNUG @ 18.65 today, bought earlier @ 14.53. Not sure it was a good idea, but didn’t want to leave a good profit on the table. hopefully I will be able to re-enter a lower prices. Or not…
The chart in DUST looks amazingly bullish. Say what you want. The metals are done.
Seriously, you have to quit calling a top every day.
At some point there will be a DCL. It will be a buying opportunity just like the half cycle low was. You missed that one as well and I suspect you will miss the DCL also.
Why do you appear only during down days for gold, never during the up phases ;-?
Here is my humble elliott waves forcast: we just completed a strong 5-wave up impuls and are now due to a correction. Usually, especially for strong move, the correction won’t move below the previous wave-4. that would be 23 for GDX and 1310 for gold. During this 20 points normal correction, I suspect we will see several of your posts again – enjoy then!
Added lightly to my miners here, more to put to work at the DCL.
I did the same.
I like how you think. 🙂
Me too, couldn’t resist some more JNUG.
Early part of a new IC is often difficult. As Gary says, its about controlling anxiety.
GDXJ just bounced at 50% retracement of the recent move out of HCL. May go a bit lower, though. Patience required.
Yes, and it tested the 10 day MA.
Amazing timing Ted coming out of his hole when gold has a down day. Where were you brave boy!
I picked the top on Wednesday. Maybe you didn’t notice.
No, you picked a number out of your butt…and this was not your first attempt. You lost big on your first attempt at a top and you will be wrong on this call. book it. come back next week and try again…
Gary was right, the bitclowns are out, convinced more than ever their imaginary ¨coins¨are going straight up after the parabola busted, instead of taking these brief bounces in the overall collapse to hurry and cash out with whatever they have left. They have no worries!
I have my BITCLOWN happy face on today, up 25%
Bitcoin: I thought about that, and I think that one (big) thing is playing in favor of BTC bulls: the fact that most bitcoin exchanges won’t allow you to convert your bitcoin in dollar. For example, say you have a bitcoin trading account at Bittrex; there you can trade almost every crypto available against each other but your account base currency must be in bitcoin, not possible in dollar or euro. If you absolutely want to convert back in dollar, you must empty part or all of your Bittrex account and go to Coinbase for example, in which you can convert your bitcoins into dollar or euro. Coinbase is not a bitcoin trading platform, but more a bitcoin wallet or depository (sorry, am not familiar with their annoying terminology). Bottom line: selling your bitcoins to go back in dollar is cumbersome and expensive (high fees for both bittrex and coinbase). This is what plays now in favor of bulls, as those are looking for every excuse not to cash out. But it is exactly what will turn into a nightmare once the bubble will accelerate, because they won’t have time to exit at decent prices…me think
NEXT HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE move up is coming for BTC. Disbelievers will have their jaws hanging low in awe.
XRP is up 100% in 2 days.
No it isn´t, but XRP is 50% off the highs in less than one month, even after the big rally the last two days.
Case in point.
I plunged into the JNUG fall 1 hour ago to lose about $6K.
To sell to soon and be left with a lost of $3K.
Though to shear ANT trading skills now I am green at +$350 🙂
This is not a perfect world.
Goild, if I am not wrong, JNUG should correct down to around 16, there it will be a good price to re-load long me think
and if I am wrong then I will miss an opportunity to buy again
Stop day trading and hold PM longer
I don’t think JNUG is going down to 16. It is making higher lows on a daily chart. I’m still holding my 300 shares. Good luck.
I agree with you, LT term is up; but note that the last daily low is precisely at 16.21; as this is a 3x leveraged stock, breaking slightly below wouldn’t impede the up trend
Thanks for the comments.
Best wishes for your trading.
I am done for the day leaving 1500 JNUG shares on the table and 500 UVXY too.
Goild, I am done for the day too; again, just my opinion here, but I think we could have now a quick and small correction for gold/miners (it’s on going) while stocks continue slightly higher until tomorrow. Then, I believe that UVXY will be a good bet and stocks will correct more largerly, while gold will be on the rise again. Gary has often warned that when SOX hit 1362 (which it did yesterday) the index would correctn and we might see a correction on the other indices as well. Let’s see what happens…
Top 5 on IBD’s Stocks On The Move List: (4 of the 5 are Semi-Equipment stocks)
This is not giving me a warm and fuzzy feeling about SOXS.
I suspect after running into resistance, bitcoin will continue its drop to 8k.
And my $6K target is coming into focus on your chart as well. 🙂
Yeah if it drops that far, then you would think the 200dma would be unavoidable. If thatbreaks, that is when the wheels come off the school bus, loaded with children.
or the pilgrims arrive at Plymouth from their Mayflower voyage. Those guys will be famished after such a long voyage and will no doubt be digging up indian graves again.
Wait for the close, but spot is telling us the hunt for DCL has started, with the break of trendline.
I bailed on ALL my miner positions earlier (to lock in profits) and just bailed on the SOXS swing trade I took earlier for a loss. Markets are coming back again. Bailed on PYPL as well.
Nice. A couple more posts like this and I know I can safely go leveraged long gold again . 🙂
Right at the exact top I’m sure 🙂
Futures not quite there.
The Gold/Silver ratio is trading well above the 78 level. If we get a monthly close well above the 78 level, that would not spell well for Gold. In that case, the possibility of retesting the 2016 lows would be well and alive.
This week is about positioning the metals ahead of OEX. I suspect the banksters would like to pin GDX at 23.50 by tomorrows close.
The real question is whether the euro is forming a flag. If it is and the flag breaks higher next week then the metals still have one more leg up before this daily cycle tops.
Notice that platinum isn’t following gold or silver. That’s a pretty good sign that gold is being manipulated ahead of OEX.
Next week will be the one to watch. This week has just been about trying to make as many options as possible expire worthless.
Question – do you not think the previous IC is too skewed to use the DC durations as a comparison? 2 daily cycles that stretched is certainly not the norm. You may end up correct and we see this pattern repeat, due to the currencies. However, until we finish this IC, there is simply no way of knowing.
It just depends on whether the euro is forming a flag.
Yes, it is on high alert 🙂
How did you come up with 23.50?
GDX is currently flirting with the 23%Fib and if it closes below the 10DMA then it could very well drop all the way back down to the 38%Fib.
It is the closest strike price lower. The banksters will try to sell as many calls as possible right before an OEX, then they drive price down into the expiration and clean up on the premiums.
It’s why we got the hard move down into the HCL in miners even though gold just went sideways. That setup a call buying frenzy once price was rammed back up to new highs.
Now they are set to clean up on all those calls they sold last week and Tuesday.
Anyone who bought 25’s, 24.5’s or 24’s has just gotten fleeced. They are going to try to take the 23.50’s down as well.
It’s very unfortunate they have this type of power to enrich themselves at every whim. They are certainly not worthy…
Max pain pin is yellow region.
23.50’s are the target.
With gold only down one day there’s no way the miners would be down this much naturally. They are getting help ahead of OEX.
Thx Gary! I’m not much of an “options” guy so this gives me a different perspective 🙂
Government shut down tomorrow probably our only hope for correction
Miners lost the 10ma. Lets see how they close. The subs must be freaking out, because the site is noticeably slower.
Futures broke below trendline. Let’s see how we close in 1h 30mins. Euro looks dangerous.
Say goodbye to the miners! Back in DUST today!
be ready to sell tomorrow to lock in your profits.
Putting some bids in just below market prices, maybe I can get some fills in final few minutes washout?
Shouldn’t tomorrow be a wash as well?
Question. Why would you be buying here if we are dropping into a daily cycle low? Granted I am not certain of that, but we are certainly seeing a red flag. So I am just wondering what your thought process is.
It’s too late in the daily cycle to by buying leverage. We can not assume that the daily cycle will stretch 50-60 calendar days like the last IC hosted.
I like adding into declines, and while we might be heading into a DCL (looks probable), we cannot know. Also, since I am a longer term trader with juicy marks at the moment, I don´t mind adding small amounts into down days. These are smaller buys, maybe 10 to 20% of what I plan to put to work at the DCL.
I am not really a cycles guy, just pretend to be! I rely on Alex, and now Gary too, for the cycles stuff. I focus on control of total risk, and love getting bids filled, while I hate chasing. In December when Gary gave the green light I made some big buys, but in the week or two prior I had started some buying in indvidual cases when the miners weren´t trading as a group. For example, SVBL was one of my earliest purchases, got a lot of it with average cost of 11 cents, though that is one I have not added to as yet.
Lastly, with some vehicles like the SILJ etf I have mentioned here, they are not the most liquid for larger orders, so I am forced to piece into (and out of) them. With something like that, I can only do 500 shares per buy maximum per order if I want to get a fill it seems.
I will continue to add small tomorrow if it´s a down day too, but the orders will be 5x the size when Gary and Alex say we have a DCL in place (and preferably oversold technicals on the daily charts). I will not exit these positions unless stopped out, or until we are overbought on the MONTHLY charts. This approach is the only thing that works for me, and allows me to focus on the big picture instead of reacting to wiggles.
This method reminds me what I should be looking to do, buying into the decline, rather than entertaining selling to avoid the pain of pullbacks. Keeps me conditioned that on down days I do nothing or buy, but not selling (unless into a new trade and it stopping me out bc wasn´t good,). It´s the opposite of bitclowns who want more of something after it has already run up 36,000%
I have a better idea. How about “Say goodbye to Ted.”?
Miners are trying to reclaim the 10ma before close. Will the bulls prevail? Does it matter? LOL, its always fun to watch. 7 mins till cash close.
FAIL. GDX, GDXJ and $HUI closed below the 10 day moving average.
Gary. Don’t you think if they are fleecing gold Before oex…. Wouldn’t they pump the SMs before oex? Looks very blowoff top in the Dow this week. I got out of leverage. Might we not see a drop of indicies into February 1st earnings reports.
My original scenario was a buy the rumor sell the news into earnings. But now that you talk about oex, it got me thinking it could be the reverse. We’ll find out Monday.
No point in complaining about OEX volatility, whatever be the attributed cause. Want to hold? Stomach the volatility. Can not handle the volatility? Could have folded around Tuesday close to reload later.
I am not the best at charts but looks to me like we will see 32 ish tomorrow in NUGT. If I’m right, hope it holds. If we rinse and repeat should see 37ish by Feb 1st.
You drew those lines on mobile? If so, good job! Mind you, IF this is a hunt for a DCL, NUGT is going much lower than 32.
The VIX is up almost 50% from it’s lows of Jan 4. and yet UVXY, a double leveraged volatility play, is up less than 10% from it’s lows. The UVXY chart looks like a series ski slopes. What amazes me is the number of suckers willing to buy into this garbage ETF with the hope they are going to get lucky.
Much better to get vix calls 3months out
More BOW in GDX. It didn’t mean anything yesterday, will it mean something tomorrow? Who knows.
next week. one more day. I think Gary has it right with miners and Gold.