183 thoughts on “CURRENCY UPDATE

  1. Bluebellkid

    GDX appears to have put in a bottom last Friday. It touched 20.84 and rallied to close the day at the high of the day and volume was the heaviest since June 14th coming in at 101.76 mm when it normally trades 41 mm. The low Friday was the lowest it has traded going all the way back to December of 2016. Since the low Friday was lower than the low in December of 2017 it appears it could qualify for a double bottom base. With it taking out the low of December 2017 the chances of a rally succeeding are increased because the weak hands bailed at the December low level and there aren’t as many investors left to create resistance or selling pressure.

  2. isavage

    Good Evening Gary

    Do you feel like making a call on the post CPI market action for tomorrow ?

    Feeling like it’s going to be a major pivot and big percentage day. It would make sense that it would be up to squeeze out the bears.

    1. Gary Post author

      CPI is a backwards looking statistic. I don’t know that it will have much effect on the market other than just temporary.

      1. optimal

        Gary,

        In previous videos, you indicated that Gold would probably not go lower than 1300. However, in this video, your yellow cursor points to the 1275 level in March. Have you changed your view and think 1300 will not hold?? Thank you.

  3. Goild

    As you know I was very bullish on Friday which was a key day entry for the miners.
    I loaded JNUG shares.

    However, after Gary’s weekend report I started to hesitate.
    Then I remembered the old BTU, which was an exciting stock in coal.
    Well, it went from around $100 to pennies.
    So I got rid of 11.5K JNUG shares.
    The miners have been losing steam.
    They tracked the SM last Friday.
    It seems to me that there are a number of problems in the mining industry.
    The last drop from $20 to $11.4 indicates such problems.
    Although I have now 3K GDX shares, I definitely am exerting great care.
    Shall the SM fall some more it is likely it will pull the miners down.
    We shall see what happens in these upcoming days.
    But do not be fooled. The miners have definitely their share of big problems.
    Likely with the supply of oil, mining is cheaper.
    Exert extreme caution.
    If any one has a good strategy to get into the miners, shall they decide to fly, please post.

    1. Christian

      “If any one has a good strategy to get into the miners, shall they decide to fly, please post.”

      A good strategy is already in place Goild but unfortunately you have the attention span of a 5 year old who is constantly looking for instant gratification. A good strategy was getting into the Miners on Friday when GDX/GDXJ reversed like a house on fire, and the only thing holding you back from that strategy is the constant flip flopping.

      Yes, others will want to come to your rescue and give you praise, but I’ve been saying this since the first day you showed up on this blog a few months ago and you’re still not listening.

      Don’t read me wrong big boy.. you’re an absolute SWEETHEART and your passion for wine and women makes me smile from cheek to cheek but you need to stop treating this business like an old gambling addiction — eventually that method will tire you out. And instead you need to be more patient with your trades AND you need to stay focused on the mid to long term picture. This is the problem with 99% of the people that show up on this blog and God knows I’ve seen my fair share over the years, Lol!

      You won’t change of course, so this little rant of mine is probably a waste of time but hey! At least I tried 🙂

      Mahalo!

  4. Goild

    isavage,

    Thank you for sharing you vix experience.
    I hope you did not loose bucks, or shall I say pounds? 🙂

    I also had some dealings.
    The previous day to the spike when UVXY was falling to $10.8 to $10.2 I started to buy it at
    $10.78 to end up with 52K shares at $10.4. The average price was $10.56.
    I had to leave my trading desk and so I sold 20K shares. When I came back, I sold the remaining shares just to get even as I was losing like $10-15K. The following day UVXY went to $22!

    Previously as you know I was chasing UVXY to make about $1K.

    How true is that it is not particularly difficult to predict something in the stock market,
    and that how difficult is to properly execute a trade!!!

  5. DaZeD

    Gary: I’m also really confused in the currencies market. Like you said there has been no confirmation of a DCL with the dollar, but at the same time with the timelines that you talked about with gold bottoming around the FOMC meeting in March, wouldn’t it make more sense that the gold has formed a DCL on 2/9 and that the euro is looking for its bear market trend line before reversing again? If this isn’t a DCL for the euro, then it would have to find the DCL first then tag the trend line before reversing which would mean that it would be a left translated cycle for the dollar again.

  6. jacob2

    GOLD – Continue to accumulate miners. Inflation, there is no escaping it. No attention does it get, a forlorn and unexciting sector. If you can be patient a great time to be buy. When least expected it will take off. I’ll be there.

    1. Jim Dandy

      I agree, but think that we were early. Miners are telling us there is no rush, and that might also mean they go lower awhile first. One thing I have learned about the miners, in the short term it dosen´t matter what makes sense or what they should do, they can get cut in half before they triple, so I will keep some power dry, and stay away from any of the leveraged funds, too.

      Just a guess, but the May timeframe provide one more washout, we did break the support last week after testing it 4 times in 2017, and while it rallied from there, those breaks usually foreshadow some more weakness. How much, nobody knows, but if you are looking for a correction in stocks, don´t be surprised if miners go south with them.

  7. Goild

    Christian,

    I appreciate your thoughts.
    Thank you for taking the time.
    Yes, I have the challenge to understand/identify my trading problems, of which I know several, and of changing myself.
    Easy to say hard to do.

    Have a nice night!

  8. RTTPD

    Unless we go back to December of 2015, where I picked up KGC at 1.65, how can they keep going lower when gold continues from that point to make higher lows.

    Many of the miners are cheap as all hell right now. I mean REALLY cheap. GPL got down to 1.09 the other day. How could one pass that up? It’s frustrating….but sooner or later they’re going to break loose.

    The folks here who are the most frustrated with the miners are likely the ones that are useing the markets as their sole source of income and it’s dire if they’re not profiting every single day.

    1. Jim Dandy

      I agree miners look cheap, but that is also the thinking that got me in trouble before. They are even cheaper if they drop 20% from here, and to use logic when trading mining stocks can be very costly. They go wherever they want to go.

      It was amazing to see how many times they could get cut in half from 2011-2016. Maybe long, long term investors will be around to see when things like the gold:miners ratio corrects, but riding down 50% is still painful as hell. GPL shouldn´t be at $1.09, and it shouldn´t be at .90 when it gets there, either, which could easily happen with this group.

      I will be heavily long again too, but don´t think it´s imminent, and buying into strength is almost surely a losing setup with miners, so I will wait until weakness comes from whatever levels it starts. I have some long term holdings, but not heavily invested yet after that recent breakdown.

  9. RTTPD

    Jimdandy ——

    You could be correct.

    I just read an article from Sunshine profits spouting a bunch of quant gibberish on how the dollar is going to fall through support and gold is going to rally.

    I take Sunshine profits bullish on the metals to be a VERY ominous sign. All I need for further confirmation now is for Spanky to show up with his charts today telling us Silver is doomed and going to 14 bucks.

    Maybe it is time to sit on the sidelines for a while….

    1. Jim Dandy

      That´s kind of what I´m doing, parked on the sidelines besides a few long term holdings that are already up a nice amount, and watching for the next setup. December was a setup and I am not ashamed of taking the trade, even though it wasn´t the launch we´ve been waiting for.

      it will come around again, as long as we don´t wear down our capital (financial and mental).

      Good luck, and let´s be ready.

    2. bginvestor

      Dollar is signaling a swing high , and my bet it will break support which will carry metals higher..

    1. Jim Dandy

      To me it is looking more and more like you will be correct. Miners had every reason to fly, instead had a somewhat disappointing rally out of December, and December is often THE low for the year that sets up a sharp rally. Not this year.

      On top of that, there is an old saying on Wall Street that basically says if they can´t go up, then they want to go down, and not only did miners not fly, they actually did break the lows that were tested 4 times in 2017 last week just before the latest bounce started. Maybe we are not done on the downside, because they certainly wanted to go down.

  10. isavage

    Good Morning All

    Gary I agree with you here

    “CPI is a backwards looking statistic. I don’t know that it will have much effect on the market other than just temporary”

    Just there is a lot of talk as you must have read of the end of the old system by the Fed & the start of the new post Vol spike. Therefore the CPI will be much more important today.

    Hi Goild – Yes its so much about the right execution at the right time 🙂 Well this morning i have been able to resolve the TVIX & UVXY positioning so i can cover effectively now. so more than half way home to a normal account situation. Feels SO MUCH BETTER LOL 🙂

    1. cazabrujas

      The financial media was setting up the inflation information these past few days as their next bogeyman and, lo and behold, they made the market tank to scare the dumb money again. hate those guys.

  11. bluelagoon

    Looks like Gary was right – today is likely a red day for gold so we can now construct that downtrend line. If JNUG breaks $12.80 – then $10.80 is next.

  12. theworldwithoutfacebook

    And… It’s gone. Market done for 3-5 years. Everyone is bag holding. Retail already bought in and still holding. Short everything,

  13. Gary Post author

    Attachment

    It’s going to take some work to get through that steeply declining 10 DMA. It’s probably not realistic to expect it to be recovered on the first try.

  14. Gary Post author

    It’s not like the Fed isn’t already in a rate hiking cycle. Nothing unexpected has happened. The CPI has just confirmed that they need to keep raising rates.

  15. Goild

    TIP is gapping up because of the CPI data.
    Gold can correlate to TIP.

    Perhaps we will have a good gold day today and the miners might benefit.

    1. carlvan

      The recovery from “CPI lows” is already impressive, especially for the Nasdaq, +100 pts…IF this holds until the end of the session, I believe the YCL/ICL is a done deal

  16. Goild

    Nice and easy run.
    Sold the 1K JNUG shares at $14.42 🙂

    Sorry I could not resist the temptation to sell.
    Hard to change.

  17. Jim Dandy

    I have no idea what´s up in the precious metals arena, now the miners are handily outperforming the metal, which isn´t doing to bad itself.

    No way in hell I will chase them, that is the quickest way to get smoked.

    1. Bluebellkid

      Jim the middle Bollinger Band can be a good place to enter. Not always but a lot of the time when something goes thru the band it will continue until it hits the upper band and vice versa. Keep in mind the volume last Friday for GDX was 2 1/2 times normal for GDX which is our proxy for the miners. The previous times when volume was that heavy on one day there were nice rallies that followed. We got a nice rally off the December 13th big move that only saw 82 mm shares exchange hands. The move last Friday had 101 mm shares moving.

  18. Jim Dandy

    It´s odd that gold is up more than silver % wise today, and with inflation everywhere, oil continues to get hit, copper is barely up.

    1. Gary Post author

      Attachment

      Gold has started its second daily cycle. Stocks have completed a YCL and I’m starting to believe the dollar isn’t going to break that daily cycle down trend line before heading down to test the bull market trend line.

  19. Nada

    Damn it. So much for the return of Mustang Sally. I think she might have passed away in the retirement home. Our last hope of a return is the next ICL. If she shows, mortgage the house and kids.

  20. Robert

    lol Gary has been focussing so much on the stock market when he should have been playing gold instead. Miners outperforming stocks big time here

    1. Gary Post author

      No it’s too late in the intermediate cycle and there isn’t much room left before the dollar tags that bull channel trend line.

      The same thing is going to happen that always happens. Gold bugs will get over the top bullish especially if gold breaks above 1377. That’s where the banks will sell their shares to them and leave them holding the bag. We made enough on the first rally, we don’t need to risk getting caught when the intermediate cycle tops.

      Metals might have 1-2 more weeks to rally before topping.

      Stocks on the other hand are at the very beginning of a new yearly cycle. They are either going to go parabolic or they will have 15 to 20 weeks to rally before topping.

      How many times must we repeat this before you folks start listening to me?

          1. Gary Post author

            Control greed right now. There isn’t much downside left for the dollar. That means the banksters are going to set up an exit for their metals positions soon. Don’t let your emotions cause you to get caught holding the bag.

      1. jyoung3759

        In case you have not figured it out and many of you are lost in your own opinions and delusions of grandeur its all about temperament and controlling yourself. Gary does not chase or get excited about these moves because he know where the overall picture lies and its late in the cycle so why bother. Many of you do exactly what this move expects and are not rational about it. Until you figure yourself out then trading (gambling will just be a place you keep thowingmoney away at. Our attitudes and beliefs is what guides our trading decisions. Be silent and take a good hard look at yourself and then you will see your mistakes. only through silence and paying attention can you become a better trader. Know yourself. Gary seems to do that very well.

  21. 1970confused

    Its time for some major catching up for the miners.Its shocking how much they keep this sector depressed. Gary you sure have been changing your mind on both the dollar and gold these days?!

  22. Bluebellkid

    Smart money knew Friday that the CPI was going to be “hot” and that explains the heavy volume and price closing at the high of the day. Better known as “accumulation”.

  23. bigglaze

    Some food for thought: CORT, ACLS, KRO, EXTR. Some VERY undervalued and beaten down stocks ripe for the picking.

  24. ted

    I’m bullish in miners, stock market, and bitcoin here. I just got confirmation today in my model. All three have bottomed!

  25. Gary Post author

    Attachment

    If this holds the Q’s are going to recover the 50 DMA today and signal a 4 day rule trend change. The slingshot is still in play. If it does come to fruition the odds are good the parabolic phase will play out during this intermediate cycle.

    1. Robert

      It needs a strong bullish engulfing candle with volume. These small candles are not cutting it. 280s on SPY will be stiff resistance

      1. Christian

        We’ve had a pretty sustainable bounce off the 200MA Robert.. Not sure why you’re complaining :/

          1. Gary Post author

            We made plenty of money during the first daily cycle, plus these kind of emotional moves usually retrace the next day. So you will potentially get an entry tomorrow if you want to play the final drop down in the dollar.

  26. JJHarmen

    Like everyone else, I am skeptical that a news driven gold rally is something to get excited about. Don’t get me wrong, it’s nice to see GDX get up of the mat given that I am holding 3000 shares but we have been down the road of disappointment about a 100 times now so I am not going to be getting out the party hats just yet.

  27. JJHarmen

    I sold my LABD this morning for a two cent gain which barely covers the commission costs but I didn’t like how fast the BIOs reversed back up. Man, there is just no money being short anything in market. The corrections are just too quickly bought up.

  28. 1970confused

    Gary, why would the banksters do that at this point, I think this will be the 4th try that gold is trying to get thru that 1350$ to 1370$ area!! How many times do we have to hit that area before we get thru it, Gold should have already been past this long ago. The dollar has taken a big dive and gold did not move accordingly especially the miners. At this point who cares what the dollar is doing…..

    1. Gary Post author

      Attachment

      The banksters always try to manufacture the perfect exit.

      Don’t get me wrong there should still be more room yet before this daily cycle tops. The dollar still has more to drop before tagging that trend line. But one has to be careful not too get too excited as we get near that support zone. The odds are high gold is going to top in the area and the gold bugs will be left holding the bag as the dollar rallies out of an ICL.

    1. Gary Post author

      No matter how many times I get these things right you just never listen do you? 🙂

      I can see it already. Your eyes are starting to glaze over and you will be one of those caught at the top when the banksters unload their shares.

      Maybe this time you listen to me so you don’t get fleeced.

      We still have several years before the metals begin their parabolic phase. Stocks are probably going to start theirs right now. The goal is to catch both of them. Not ignore one while you wait for the second.

      1. espresso

        Gary, you would have made a great kindergarten teacher, you have so much patience and willingness to keep on message.

      2. Anthonyo

        Right.

        This CPI data inflation “jolt” today to me is manufactured by the Fed so they have excuse to raise rates in March. I dont see any inflation , do you?

        Gold jumped $21.50….Let’s see if she can hold her water though.
        Could juts deflate slowly over the next 2 weeks… I dont think gold is ready for prime time until May or June…..but we will see. I would say gold is dead money to at least mid-year if not longer.

        1. Nada

          Give it a rest. You bought at the top of IC in stocks and predicted gold breaking out when you were warned that a hunt for DCL was coming. So please don’t come in here and try to preach, as your calls in gold and SM have been horrible.

      3. RTTPD

        Lol!!

        I think you are right Gary…..and on your words today I just sold HL and NGD for super nice profits, both bought last Friday. Even if they keep going up I will not regret as the FOMC meeting is just around the corner

  29. allthatglitters

    JNUG long and strong. Today is perfect illustration that no one knows in advance how strongly gold will move on a given day, or what direction. Anyone who believes Gold is in a bull market should seriously consider stopping the constant trading and simply hold. No one under the sun is smart enough to trade every wiggle.

  30. 1970confused

    Get excited LMAO, that is a good one! Gold has really not gone anywhere meaningful lately and the miners have been crushed for the last 7 years. I would say not to get to excited about the stock market, that is where the air needs to be let out except TPTB will never let that happen.

  31. Don

    Of the 4O ETFs that I watch regularly, the strongest over the past 5 trading sessions is GDXJ. Maybe this rally is the real deal.

    1. carlvan

      I think it’s a weekly chart but your point is right about ADX at the lows: that’s when people get bored and look everywhere else for action – and then it starts

  32. Don

    It is puzzling to see the same old stocks having a disproportionate effect in pulling the indexes up, Nvidia, Netflix, Boeing. Amazon. Netflix is up 39% YTD and that’s in spite of the short lived correction. Amazon and Nvidia are both up 23% TYD. Where are the sector rotations we used to see after a correction? That never seems to happen anymore.

    1. JJHarmen

      Don, maybe not a puzzle. I think someone else pointed this out (maybe it was you) but let’s think about who the new retail investors are who are rushing in to open trading accounts. It’s the millennial generation. And what are their lives all about? They spend much of their time playing games on devices powered by Nvidia hardware, watching their favorite Netflix shows and who prefer to shop at Amazon for what they need so they don’t have to leave the house. So, doesn’t it make sense that they would invest in what they know?

  33. Christian

    Attachment

    I posted this chart last Friday.. And despite today’s explosive move in the Miners; I’m still not convinced they’ll break to new highs.

  34. desertsun999

    On Monday I was texting with Bob Moriarty about a possible stealth bottom in silver. Last week silver back tested its down trend line as SIL was possibly finishing its abc correction. He is adamant in his position that we will not have a true bottom until the DSI prints out a bearish low. Decembers bottom numbers in silver were right at the border at a 10. Time wise we are so stretched that whatever happens needs to happen soon.

  35. m0ntana

    Gary,
    What’s your opinion on oil? Oil stocks are muddling through, looks like they are basing before next leg up.
    Thanks

  36. FASTEDDY

    Christian, I sold the 2000 Fresnillo purchased last wed @£12.95 this afternoon at around 2:38pm to close . Paid £12.29 last wed at 2:47pm uk time. Miners have big gaps on the downside so decided to call it. A cheeky grand+ profit in less than a week will do me.

  37. allthatglitters

    in addition to the 2800 JNUG I’m holding been buying shares of DNCVF when I can. up to 50,000 shares. Fairly risky silver play, but could really pop if they’re still solvent when silver finally makes a run.

    Any other uber jr miners people really like?

    1. Andy

      SPVEF Atlantic Gold. Just commissioned their mine in Nova Scotia, producing gold at $580 or so AISC….large upside and very safe for being a small cap.

      Full disclosure….I am loaded up on this one.

  38. roadrunner

    if any of you want some cheap entertainment…just go back and read this thread…or any thread during a day and the play by play commentary of what the markets are doing is hilarious. Its best when you check in only at the end of the day and read the emotional commentary. You don’t even have to know where the market(s) are at but one can make a good approximation by the comments. hey i called a stealth DCL for gold on Friday. ( that is my Gary bragging moment)

  39. isavage

    Congrats Gary on your call this morning for CPI to be a short-term Challenge for the market very spectacular bounce let’s see if it sticks 😉

    1. Jim Dandy

      Thanks for sharing that chart, and nice catch on that volume. Being it was a slight up day, I would take that as some large shareholders selling into the excitement?

        1. Jim Dandy

          I see that. I have been getting my signals crossed as well, in fact earlier today and yesterday was just getting convinced the upside was limited near term, and going lower also wasn´t out of the question in miners.

          With the GDX and GDXJ blasting through their 200 and 50 MAs today, and staying strong all day, I might have to reconsider buying back some of the miners I have sold, before the close. I won´t be nearly as heavy as I was in December though, since I am out of sync.

    1. desertsun999

      I have said it before and I’ll say it again. When the bond market breaks that’s when everything starts to go sideways.

  40. Anthonyo

    MANUFACTURED(cooked book) INFLATION

    This CPI data inflation “jolt” today to me is manufactured by the Fed so they have excuse to raise rates in March. I dont see any inflation , do you?

    Gold jumped $21.50….Let’s see if she can hold her water though.

  41. Anthonyo

    GARY,

    Would it make sense to liquidate half or all of one’s JNUG, and NUGT now or soon(despite losses) and use the proceeds to buy leveraged stock indices?

  42. Anthonyo

    Stocks;
    Waiting for the Dow to move decisively through, and close above 25,100 and same with NAZ to close above 7075….
    then I go LONG again.

  43. Gary Post author

    I don’t think one needs to chase the metals as the banksters usually like to smack it back down after a day like today. You’ll probably get a better entry if you are a little patient.

    Stocks on the other hand I think you should chase. We are getting the slingshot just like I warned. The odds are starting to increase that we are about to transition into the parabolic stage of the bull market. I think everyone should most definitely try to catch the parabolic stage in stocks. The parabolic stage in metals is still several years away. We have an opportunity to catch two bubbles not just one.

    1. desertsun999

      Gary, I think you are right on the metals. Too much interest at the bottom. I don’t like the looks of the Dow though. I know sentiment is saying we should bounce but it looks to me like it is setting up for one last push down.

      1. Anthonyo

        The Dow is the weakest of all indices today….NAZ strongest……….
        I need the Dow to close above 25,100 to go long again.

        The question is do we take advantage of fake inflation gold rise today to sell NUGT and JNUG at lower losses and use the proceeds to go long stocks now??

        1. THC

          Yes, unloaded JNUG purchased last week. Been burnt too many times. Long Natty futures. Oil looks ripe for a short, but power move today.

      2. Gary Post author

        Stocks have confirmed the yearly cycle low is complete. Despite today’s big move in the metals the real potential is in the stock market.

        Stocks are only 4 days into a new intermediate cycle while metals are 9 weeks into an intermediate cycle and probably only have one or two weeks left before that cycle tops.

        Stocks and gold can both go up with a falling dollar but only stocks can continue higher when the dollar begins its next intermediate degree rally.

        Too many people treat the market as a sprint when in reality it’s a marathon. Yearly cycle lows only come around once every 11 to 14 months. When we get one no matter where it’s at that is where you need to have the vast majority of your capital.

        The ycl just occurred in the stock market. This is where the marathon huge gains are going to be achieved over the next 15 to 20 weeks.

    2. Jim Dandy

      Rather than chase miners, I might buy a few futures contracts on the metals themselves in case the group is starting to run. Seem less risky if there should be a reversal.

      I agree Gary, more often than not these moves are faded. But I have been caught on the wrong side lately, and while I usually never flip flop and instead prefer to hold through corrections, was induced into selling a lot of my holdings after that massive pullback into this DCL. It has me unbalanced at the moment. It would be a shame to miss the big move after scoping it out since the highs in 2016, and I can hold through drawdowns, so will at least do some buying before the close. I´ll keep it small enough so when they crush them tomorrow it dosen´t hurt too bad! LOL

      I would add that with such a strong up day, my idea of breaking the December 2016 low seems a whole lot less likely. I can´t envision what would have to transpire for that to happen from these higher levels. And the way group leaders like FNV are finally having a solid up day, it seems they want to go higher. On the other hand, looking at the FNV chart, it is firmly below the 200 MA and could run out of steam or churn at this point, giving me time to buy my miners back. I doubt it keeps putting up back to back days like today.

      http://schrts.co/XeHSe5

      Does that pullback from the January cycle high being so severe alter your outlook overall for the entire intermediate cycle, or is it not a consideration?

      1. Gary Post author

        Since the dollar still has a little ways to go before hitting that trendline I suspect gold will make it at least to the baby bull high and may be as high as 1400. I suspect the banksters will at least make sure the miners produce some kind of break out to suck in all of the emotional gold bugs and then they’ll hand them the bag like they always do at intermediate tops.

        So the potential in the metal sector is probably limited to one or two more weeks whereas the stock market probably has 15 to 20 weeks to go before topping.

        1. Robert

          If stocks put in a YCL then the move up should have been powerful like the miners. If gold hits 1400 then gdx could make it all the way back to 25. That’s a decent run in jnug

          1. Gary Post author

            Stocks are never going to move like the miners. The mining sector is just much more volatile than the liquid stock indexes. However as we start the final parabolic phase we may get days where the stock indexes begin to move like mining stocks with huge percentage up days. I’ll say it again, don’t get distracted by the big move in metals today. The real potential is in the stock market that is only 4 days into a brand-new intermediate and a yearly cycle.

            LIsten to me when I tell you trading is not a sprint it’s a marathon.

        2. Syntax

          Gary, do you foresee a time when miners play catch up to gold? GDX/GDXJ are one thing – as they are just breaching the 200dma right now, but most miners and especially juniors are all trading well below the 200dma in general.

          The divergence between gdx/gdxj/hui and gold has been getting wider and wider. The theory goes they should sync up again, and the move will likely be violent and hard to predict when I’d imagine.

          I’m assuming predicting the cycles in gold is quite a bit easier than determining when we will end the divergence?

          1. Gary Post author

            We probably don’t have enough time left in this intermediate cycle for it to happen. I would guess the next intermediate cycle when the dollar breaks through that bull market trend line will be the time when gold and miners really start to recover from the bear market in earnest.

  44. Jim Dandy

    I wonder what volume in miners is telling Bluebellkid today? At least the upside has spread to other commodity stocks, being it was attributed to the inflation number.

    1. Bluebellkid

      Volume is running above average with over an hour left. It will be a heavy volume day. The move in the Nasdaq as I type qualifies for a “confirmation” of the attempted rally we got last Friday. Gary’s signals already gave a confirmation so PROCEED WITH CAUTION!! If the move holds the S&P will also give a confirmation and the DOW is on the verge of confirming.

      1. faz

        Bluebell, if both your volume criteria AND Gary’s work have both confirmed, then why the emphasis on caution – what did I misunderstand.. ? Thanks.

  45. Bob

    Bitcoin is approaching $10,000 and will likely double again. It happened before, it’ll happen again.

    Sorry, sitting in the office on a beautiful day thinking it would be a good day to be ice fishing.

        1. Bluebellkid

          Correct on the volume. GBTC found support at the 200 day on the 5th and has moved up since then. Volume is not above average at this point so I only bought 1000 shares. If it can get thru the 50 day I will add to my position.

      1. vin

        Good for you, Bluebellkid. And, good luck.

        I wanted to but lacked courage. Still thinking.

        what is ur entry pt

  46. Gary Post author

    The NASDAQ 100 is up 8.4% in 4 days. I warned people that this would unfold as a slingshot back to the highs. Once we break out to new highs all of those new and unsophisticated investors should be ready to create the buying panic that will power the bubble phase.

    1. m0ntana

      So you say G-man, but even with this slingshot higher most people in Q’s are barely break-even or still under water. They need another 2-3 weeks like this.

      1. Gary Post author

        Montana you need to get out of the investing business. Your emotions cause you to do the exact opposite of what you should do almost every single time.

  47. desertsun999

    Gary, if the bond market confirms it has started its bear market I think that could upset the apple cart. I do not think the market will react kindly to that. TLT has to bounce now if its not going bearish. A huge breakdown from here could get ugly…….I mean like coyote ugly where you would chew your own arm off to escape….LOL

    1. Gary Post author

      Rising rates are a signal of an improving economy. Nothing disastrous is happening. Now if interest rates were to jump to 5 or 6% in a very short period of time, like two or three weeks then yes we will have problems. I think that is very unlikely though

        1. Gary Post author

          As I’ve explained before, interest rates don’t cause recessions. Inflation causes recessions. Specifically energy inflation. The price of gold or copper could go to the moon and it wouldn’t affect consumer spending. Energy and food inflation on the other hand cause consumers to tighten their belts and cut down on discretionary spending, stalling the economy.

    1. Nada

      Lol. Ted your calls have been notorious for being.. absolute shit. Now you have finally learned it’s easier to agree with Gary, so you do not look like a fool and have to disappear every few days.

      Finally you learned something.

  48. MrBurns

    Buyer in FXF June 102 calls, it looks like a 102/109 spread. Maybe the Swiss are looking to cap US$ and get more gold, maybe it’s helping the metal get its act together.

  49. palobar

    Dow: The 24190 was a very BIG number. The successful retest killed the shorts
    USD:Very disappointing. In fact it has been dropping on every kind of news whether positive or negative.
    Gold:
    So far the first scenario is playing out (brief correction followed by a breakout). Next week is a strong turning point. If Gold will manage to get through it could be preparing for something big.

  50. Bluebellkid

    Confirmation update:
    Nasdaq up 1.86% volume up (from yesterday) 21.95%
    S & P up 1.34% NYSE volume up 16.77%
    As far as the miners go:
    GDX average daily volume 41 mm today 95.1 mm
    GDXJ average daily volume 13 mm today 25.5 mm
    NUGT average daily volume 6.5 mm today 13.5 mm
    JNUG average daily volume 11.8 mm today 25.1 mm

  51. Anthonyo

    NASDAQ headed to 7500-7800 but it will be a slow move.

    DJIA has not yet gotten the “All Clear” technically.

    1. cazabrujas

      Your statement on the Nasdaq is based on what? You are just making a wild guess and have no idea at all

  52. desertsun999

    Anthonyo ;
    What do you think happens when the currency in a country that does not manufacture anything for themselves anymore drops from 103.82 to 89 in a little over a year? You start to get inflation, my friend.
    Lower dollar, less buying power, inflation.

      1. Anthonyo

        USD will be going UP not down in intermediate to long term… when the stuff hits the fan in EU and everywhere else, the rush will be to the currency of last resort USD.
        Gold and USD can and will go up together.

        No inflation to be found except in equities, and real estate new bubble(deflating as we speak.)

        Anti-Americanism is so old shoe now.

    1. vin

      So, Americans stopped “manufacture anything for themselves” a year ago?

      And, before that they “manufacture(d) anything for themselves” LOL!

      Please don’t confuse gambling with fundamentals

  53. Don

    While one might believe that US stock markets are one of the hottest in the world, that really is not the case. I watch 42 country ETFs and the S&P ranks number 27 in terms of percentage gain (YTD). When looking at the the last 12 months the under performance is even more pronounced with the S&P rank dropping to number 31. The hottest ETF over the past 12 months: Nigeria. The worst: Canada.

    So, would it be safe to assume that if the S&P goes parabolic, there will 30 other stock markets around the world that are just as likely to do the same?

  54. AussieMike

    Hi Gary
    I’m probably late to the party here. But while i appreciate your concerns of Gold, XEU, USD – DCL rules not being met. It appears you started your video too early. Gold closed near it’s recent highs on 14 Feb. Obviously, the scare of inflation is pushing many to take up early positions in miners and other products while at cheap prices.
    I had concerns that Gold had formed a double top with the September 2017 high, but now it’s looking like a cup and handle has formed. When this is finished Gold should reach US$1452, baring intervention, banksters and the other usual headwinds.
    My only drawback here in Oz is that the A$ is going up with the falling USD, Not making the gains in gold quite as pronounced.

  55. Jim Dandy

    And I had to add back some of miners sold last week, so lets hope today dosen´t just mean today!

    I didn´t buy enough yet to get me worried, if we can get some weakness in the first hour, I will have to add after seeing today.

  56. Bluebellkid

    We got the confirmation/follow thru today on day four of an attempted rally (which is text book by the way) and just to keep things in perspective know that not all follow-throughs work.
    After market corrections in 2010, 2011, 2015 and even 2016, the first follow-through that took place after the major indexes plunged thru their 50-day moving averages in a vertical-like fashion tended to fail. In other words, the indexes immediately declined in the following days and weeks and undercut the low of the first up day in the new market rally. It may be the second or third follow thru that offers the best opportunities to make money in stocks.
    And don’t forget this: No major market bottom emerged in the absence of a genuine follow-through.

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