107 thoughts on “Erratic currencies

  1. RTTPD

    Gary ——

    One question and a comment :

    What do you think of the Silver COTS – they’re very very bullish?

    My comment is simply that it looks like the second scenario, where we break the double top is more plausible, as the time frame—roughly 19 trading days—between now and the FOMC meeting seems way too short for gold to put in a legitimate ICL and head back up again.

  2. MrBurns

    There’s a good possibility that if gold re-tests $1370 it would break above to the next resistance. 3rd time may be the charm and I give it a high probability if the dollar takes the alternate route of a drop.

    1. The German

      Silver Cot Commercial Shorts are at LOWEST like only 2 times before in the last 3 years !!!
      Major Silver Explosion is on hand !! Gold though ist still way behind … this could mean that SILVER s gonna take the lead !! 2018 may be the year !

  3. lokum_

    Bull flag in stocks.

    Didn’t the white house announce yesterday this 10 year plan with 3% growth average YOY ? Anyway, I smell green Friday and with HPE earnings yesterday, the NDX_100 should accelerate up.

    And yes, inflation is (finally) evidently hitting outside the stock markets

    1. The German

      JAXON MNG INC
      ISIN CA47200C1023 at buy range !? ? i grabbed 4000 this morning in Frankfurt 0,108€ cent . next shopping will be 2 cents lower if happens . ………..

  4. Cybo33

    It sounds like the best strategy is to just stay away from the metals for a few months and just concentrate on the stock market.

    What do you say about that strategy Gary?

    1. Gary Post author

      I tried months and months ago to steer people into the stock market and away from commodities. Stocks are trending and commodities are in difficult trading ranges.

      Easy to make money in stocks. Hard to make money in commodities.

      1. Don

        Funny how just about everyone is in agreement that the bull market is alive and well considering that YTD, the S&P is just barely in the green. Without the out sized gains for heavy hitters like Netflix, Boeing and Nvidia and a few others, the picture would be not looking so hot.

        1. Gary Post author

          Just assuming for a minute that Chris Ciovacco is correct and this is a secular bull that still has 10-15 years to run, how long will you continue to fight it? It’s already cost you dearly trying to ignore the obvious.

          And even if I’m correct and we have a blow off bubble phase ahead of us the prognosis is still the same. Trying to fight a bull market is a very efficient way to lose money.

  5. Gary Post author

    Attachment

    We were never close in the Dow or Nasdaq, but the SPX briefly lost the bull channel breakout during the correction. It has been recovered.

    1. rubiks cube

      Attachment

      HI Gary
      The smaller bull channel from the 2016 low should also be taken into account. The recent pullback was contained by both the lower and upper channels

  6. Goild

    Good day,

    Today is a Friday and need to have a nice weekend so we must make good bucks.
    Let us see how the day proceeds.

  7. Goild

    JNUG has been tagging support at $13 several times.
    Any signs of breaking support then sell or go short.
    Any signs of strength load shares.

    1. carlvan

      Are you talking for yourself, or providing trade advices? If so, which direction? Why 13 is a support? Why not 12 for example?

    1. vin

      It means that smart ones buy in the later part of the day and sell the next morning. And, they have been consistently doing it.

      Looks like no one informed them of 10k piece of cake. They will stop once they are educated.

      No wonder retail traders never make any money.

    2. Gary Post author

      The market is trying to break through a tough resistance zone. $166 on the Q’s. Once it does it should unleash the next buying spurt and I expect we’ll see a quick move up to the all-time highs. The rest of the indexes will follow where the tech sector leads.

  8. Goild

    Sorry again.
    This computer is moody.
    If you look at the recent days JNUG has support at around $13.

    It was just to gauge what could happen today.

  9. Goild

    Now we have some divergence between gold and the miners.
    Gold down, miners up.

    Maybe the miners are faking it, Perhaps a trap, perhaps a good sign.

    1. vin

      No, not really. Once in a while I see these opportunities and make a few pennies. In general, I don’t have the chemistry.

      As I said earlier INDL and LABU sometimes gives clear cut opportunities. Follow them and you will find that they are a great play.

  10. Goild

    Carlvan,

    Just jot down ideas. In this business nothing is cast in concrete.
    The opinions change as swiftly as the mood of pretty girls.
    Sometimes, yes I suggest a trade, like two weeks ago in JNUG,
    It turned out to be good.
    Best wishes in your trading.

  11. bigglaze

    Q’s are trying alright. I wouldn’t mind a nice push on the Nasdaq to help out Corcept. They had a good quarter!

  12. Goild

    This is a good time to break for the week.
    My gut feeling says on Monday JNUG will take off perhaps to $14.5-$15.5.
    We shall see.
    Enjoy the weekend!
    And yes I will have a glass of red wine to the health of all you guys.

  13. Goild

    Today is a good day for me.

    Like four weeks ago I lost -$18K, the following day another -$7K, the following day recovered +$9K,
    the following days reduced the loss to -$8K. Two weeks ago when JNUG hit $11.37, I stupidly plunged into it, and was losing about $50K. But today this ANT is even. Profit for January is about $8K and for February also $8K. Hopefully I will be carefully to not stupidly plunge into falling knifes. I was doing very well in January before the $18K loss.
    Thus life is not quite rosy here all the time.

  14. Jim Dandy

    More free, easy money from the stock market, despite all the doubters of the G-man. Glad I bought (was a day or two late but worked to my advantage, lucky), only wish I had maxed out every account in TQQQ, then bought NQ futures on margin, and sold QQQ puts in excess to allow me to get even more long. It´s been one sweet ride, thanks G!

  15. Diego

    Thought I would share my experience from yesterday. At one point I was long 47.5K shares of JNUG. I didn’t like the price action and sold all but 10K shares. After hours was still very weak so I decided to try to sell the rest and go home flat. I put in sell orders at the bid price that were larger volume than shown on level 2 and every time I sold I was filled and the bid number of shares never changed. “someone” was there to willingly take every share I had. I have bought and sold in after hours and have never experienced that before. I took it as a sign the bottom was in and bought back my 47.5K this morning, This is not advice but an observation.

    1. Jim Dandy

      Interesting, thanks for sharing the observation. Big line you´re swinging, I guess it´s all just percentages, but I think that size might wreck my sleep!

      I´m not sure what to make of them taking your stock so easily bc we don´t know what their time frame for holding is, they might be buying lots more or have sold out already.

      1. primetime

        Just thought it a little strange when one goes from the number one poster to MIA. I hope all is well…maybe in bad position and that equals bad attitude?

        No other apparent reason, like when Christian gets mad, you know it when he leaves. HA

        1. Bluebellkid

          Nada in a “bad position”?? Like my oldest daughter would say when she was just learning to talk, “I don’t fink so”!

  16. itsinthedna

    long AVEO, TGTX, SPPI, ALDR, ACAD, ARRY

    Biotech climate ripe for takeovers, breakouts, and FDA approvals

  17. Goild

    Attachment

    The fate is not cast yet.
    The metals are down and XAU, either will plunge or bullishly turn around.
    No need to do dramatic trading. “Dramatic trading tends to be negative.”
    Just take a small bite.
    And enjoy the flavor.

  18. theworldwithoutfacebook

    Nobody has given better trade advice on the internet than Gary. He has saved me from my erratic momentum chasing behavior. Thank you Gary.

  19. ras

    1 hour chart of tqqq got very constructive yesterday. Constructive upside progress was expected. Keep up the good work, nas. Ditto, Gary.

  20. Christian

    THUMBS UP for those of you that were able to hold on through this stomach churning consolidation 🙂

    We should see some fireworks next week, no doubt!

  21. Gary Post author

    Just like I warned we watched many people talk themselves out of their positions and most have probably missed all of the rally.

    Human nature never changes, and this pattern repeats at every intermediate cycle low

    1. Christian

      I’m not sure that’s entirely true Gary and I can only speak for myself of course but I can tell you with absolute confidence that I’m certainly not the same Trader/Investor I was when I started back in 06/07, and would like to think that others have evolved as well.

      It does take a certain level of SELF AWARENESS and the ability to remain FLUID in an ever changing Market environment, but it can be done and I think some people are starting to catch on.

      On the flip side: The time I’ve spent on this blog over the past 5 years has been eye opening to say the least.. some will continue to be stubborn and incredibly dense no matter what, and judging by the quality (or lack thereof) of the comments from some of our regulars, it’s obvious most will never change.

      Regardless.. I’ve had some great Teachers and have learned some incredibly important lessons throughout the years and would like to thank you for being a part of that process. I already had a pretty good foundation coming into this but you helped REFINE my discipline and for that I am grateful, even if I do bust your *balls on occasion..!

      *which is rare btw cuz God only knows I would much rather be Daddy’s little lap dog, Lol!

      Your perspective is always incredibly insightful and refreshing no matter what — Keep it up 🙂

    2. Robert

      Gary just to let you know im still holding tha position in options. That small dip and sideways move over the last couple days took away all the gains from rally out of the lows. They are out the money calls. I was actually up more on the options at a lower SPY price. It looks like the volatility is the reason. Maybe they wont pick up until we make all time highs again

  22. Bv

    Hello Gary. You’ve been fighting them off left, right & centre like Bruce Lee in Enter The Dragon. When I read your replies to people I think this is some of the best stuff you’ve ever posted, about dumb money/smart money, brokers there just to take money off you, gamblers etc but I get the impression you’ve lost your way a bit and are struggling with the markets yourself at the moment. Have a break, have a Kit Kat, go climbing and come back and see us in a couple of weeks time. I’m a gold bug, but I’m sitting on the side lines at the moment, not sure what to do, but it’s a nice relaxed feeling.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’ve been trying to get people to buy or hold their position for weeks now. Why would you think I’m doing anything different in my own account?

  23. Alexandru Popovici

    Long Treasuries as of today, in futures and cfd accounts.
    They set the YCL just 2d ago!
    Time for interest rates to fall a bit the next couple of months and for 10y-2y spread to TURN NEGATIVE in the process –> T-bonds will outperform Tnotes.

  24. Anthonyo

    Back in TQQQ mid-day today. The market faked me out yesterday; damn them banksters weak NASDAQ was only a bear trap.

    All in Qs this time around. Whipsaw victim.

  25. Gary Post author

    This was never anything more than a brief sideways consolidation. The slingshot is still in progress.

    But so many people were panicking like they thought we were going back down to retest the lows.

    This is what happens when one listens to a bunch of different people or analysts. These guys will always cover all the bases so they can claim to have foreseen the “move” no matter which way the market went.

    Of course all that accomplishes for most people is to paralyze them and they end up missing the start of a new intermediate cycle, which is when the biggest and quickest gains are made.

    Human nature never changes…and neither do most analysts and letter writers.

    1. Christian

      “This was never anything more than a brief sideways consolidation.”

      Doesn’t matter — You still need to manage RISK accordingly.

      Why?! Well because as you’ve clearly stated many times over the years, you don’t have a crystal ball and you most certainly didn’t foresee the Market drop earlier this month when you got back into LEVERAGE which means you can’t keep giving us the “I told you so” routine.

      ALWAYS MANAGE RISK NO MATTER WHAT.

      1. Gary Post author

        We got one of the lowest risk, highest reward scenarios in at least two years when the VIX spiked to 50. All one had to do was buy, hold, or add and then relax and let the position work.

        As we’ve seen many managed to find a way to sabotage a very simple, very profitable, and very low risk setup.

        1. Christian

          The VIX could’ve punched up a few more points if it needed to and Sentiment like every other indicator on planet earth could’ve remained EXCESSIVE longer than anyone anticipated.

          OIL is a perfect example of that as of late. We had the “all clear” from all of our favourite indicators (I follow the ones you follow) and it just kept on going up!

          1. Gary Post author

            The mistake you are overlooking is that oil is going up and the stock market was going down.

            If I’ve said this once I’ve said it a dozen times. Markets go up differently than they go down. This is why I don’t often sell short. Yes sure the market could have gone down for another day or two. So what?

            It was never going to change the big picture. The YCL was still going to occur and new highs would be made. Whether or not one timed a perfect entry or avoided some wiggles on the way back up is irrelevant to making money.

            Every great trader in history will say the same thing. You don’t have to time perfect entries to make money. You just have to get “close enough”.

          2. Christian

            I’ll end with this one final thought and wish you a happy weekend 🙂

            The mistake you’re overlooking is this: THE BIG PICTURE. Believing in it without throwing caution to the wind is what gets every overly confident Analyst/Guru in trouble at one point or another.

            I’ll give you an example: I think it was back in 2011-ish? (Before my time here at SMT) when you strongly believed that the Stock Market would topple and roll over thanks to the FED’s recklessness. You know better now but AT THE TIME that was your “big picture” and you didn’t anticipate AT THE TIME that QE would continue to push and stretch this market beyond reason. You were too focused on what you thought was “the big picture”. Eventually you caught on of course and the “big picture” changed, but the point that I’ve been trying to make all freaking day long is this:

            ALWAYS MANAGE RISK IN CASE THE BIG PICTURE (YOUR BIG PICTURE) SUDDENLY CHANGES WITHOUT NOTICE.

            This is precisely why I always do my own due diligence and follow two or three different Analysts, so that I don’t get lost in YOUR big picture and so that I can keep a healthy perspective on the current market environment.

            Perspective is everything in this business and it’ll either make or kill your portfolio.

          3. Gary Post author

            Nothing about the big picture changed this past week. There was no need to panic which you did along with everyone else.

            Oh C’mon Gary!! Can we skip the usual “daddy told you so” and acknowledge that this is more than just a ‘down day’ for God sakes?! Lol!

            As it turns out it was just a down day and there was no need to panic.

  26. Gary Post author

    Seriously, do I really need to wait 6 weeks to repost this ridiculous call for Dow 17,000?

    “Dow is going to 17,000 in the next 6 weeks….save this post”

  27. Anthonyo

    My Scottrade brokerage account bought by Ameritrade….they shut down all after-hour trading today for transition………….Monday morning all Scottrade clienst will trade on Ameritrade wesbite.

    1. Irksome

      Me too. Whether we like it or not. And I really liked the Scottrade interface (full website, not their mobile website or their mobile app).

      Oh well, hope the new-to-me interface isn’t total dogshit.

      1. Anthonyo

        Irk,
        Yes I loved Scottrade website ease of userness on my lap top, too.
        I hope also Ameritrade trade site is not cumbersome to deal with.

      2. Spanglish Inquisition

        We will now have full access to the thinkorswim platform through TD. This is the best teaching platform out there. I’ve been considering transferring to Ameritrade for a long time just for this. Very cool and exciting 🙂

  28. Anthonyo

    Gary,

    This guy is claiming stocks have topped.
    Do we know about him and his track record?
    I thought he was a gold guy, but apparently he opines aboit stocks too now.

    ” Based on market action, the equities have topped and the start of the correction has begun.
    The technical action has been bearish with rip-your-face-off rallies that fail to take out the previous highs.
    Markets that are topping are very volatile as investors try and buy the dip,it continues to fail..”

    Equities Have Topped; Gold Is Confused
    Todd ‘Bubba’ Horwitz Todd ‘Bubba’ Horwitz
    http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2018-02-23/Equities-Have-Topped-Gold-Is-Confused.html

    1. SLEP

      I’m confused! A couple of days ago Gary said gold may be going down. Now, he says gold may go up and test the highs. Which is it? 😕

      1. Anthonyo

        My understanding is it is because USD was to tag the bull trend line on the downside initially, then it had a bounce and it was thought we will just keep rallying n USD without tagging the bull market trendline……..

        ..but now, it seems USD may take another jab at falling to the said trendline, hence if som gold sahll get a bump out of this to 1385-1400(?)…
        The question iw ill have is will gold STILL go into a YCL im March if this last scenario occurs?

      2. The German

        Thx !! Its really confusing 3 weeks ago when Gold was on the rise and turned at 1365 he said only a bear trapp Markets dont top like this and bank want maximum profits so 1400 + is a sure thing since itll lure people into Gold ( stocks ) and Banks sell out to them and then big drop ………….. then he changed to bearish now he warns People in generall of the metals …………. puhhhhhhhhhhhhhh really confusing !

    2. carlvan

      As Gary, said, this is lottery forecast strategy: either it proofs true and the guy will advertise his (unknown and un-track-recorded) services with “I told ya” statements; if it proofs wrong, he will just explain why this is still true but will just happen on “his” next cycle in a few months, aka Robert Prechter and his alternate counts…

    3. Gary Post author

      I told you what I thought in the video. Stay on the sidelines for now. The direction of the dollar is erratic right now. The metals are erratic right now. Hard to make money in this kind of market. Easy to make money in the stock market. Stay focused on stocks.

  29. Saturm

    Is there here anyone considering the impact of Italy election on the market? It truly can be a huge shock. I’m afraid the dollar can find a bottom then and rush up. that’s the reason I reload the gold longs and leave qqq alone still.

    1. carlvan

      Please, seriously, what kind of influence could have a local Italian vote on the global markets?? Imagine they vote in favor of “Italexit” for instance? So what: the economy being weak there it could only benefit euro and EU business…I heard the same stories when Greece was on the verge of bankrupcy …it only boosted the markets then.

    2. Anthonyo

      As far as I am concerned Italy left Europe and the world a very long time ago! Hahaha.
      Kapiche?
      Trust me, no one cares about what happens in southern Europe(or northern Europe).
      They are just the peripheral garnish around the main dish, and the butt of jokes.

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