159 thoughts on “Convert to weekly charts

  1. Christian

    Oh C’mon Gary!! Can we skip the usual “daddy told you so” and acknowledge that this is more than just a ‘down day’ for God sakes?! Lol!

    Every Tom, Dick and Harry can switch over to a Weekly Chart (or a Monthly Chart while we’re at it) and cherry pick the heck out of this video! You know better. I mentioned last week that the 23% Fib was in the cards and that this could potentially turn into a HCL, albeit a bit early but still, at the end of the day, PRICE speaks for itself!

    How did I know?? Well, I don’t have a crystal ball and I ain’t no Warren Buffet but the Market has been flashing red flags for the past few days and you’re choosing to ignore the obvious.

    I love your confidence but at least acknowledge that the “slingshot” is turning into a big bowl of spaghetti-o at the moment 🙂

    1. Anthonyo

      Christian,

      Regardless, it looks like Oil is getting weak in the knees after reaching a high of around $62.70 an dnow heading back down to $55-$56 zone.
      At least we get oil down out of this stock pot hole.

      1. Christian

        True — but my spidey senses are losing confidence in the 55/56 intermediate trendline zone-ish.

        Only time will tell of course.. but I’ll be booking profits faster than a NY minute 🙂

      2. mrtommifunn

        Why would oil be dropping now down to 55-56 when its only 13 days out of a DCL? This current short drop to me looks like an ICL and tagging the 10MA. Granted it will come down to 55 mark but first it needs to break through the 64 to come back down. And then it would be left translated to give the lower low your asking for on the DCL.

    2. Gary Post author

      Attachment

      I think I’ll wait till the end of the week before writing off anything. We could just as easily reverse tomorrow just like we did today and the entire complexion of the market will change again.

      Things are volatile right now as bonds finish their ICL.

      As of this evening all the market has done is come back down to test the 10 DMA. There’s nothing unusual about that.

      1. vin

        So Gary, is 10k by March still a possibility? Or, shall we have to wait till the end of June.

        Being a positive and confident follower of yours I am sure if vertically UP move doesn’t happen then we will see even better things such as 10 years BULL! Right? Or, are you reconsidering again even that?

        But, then I am a gold bug at heart and waiting for a 2k jnug as you predicted long time ago.

  2. Robert

    Say what you want. Anybody who didnt take profit near the top of this run risk losing a good chunk of gains. The futures are lower overnight. The correct strategy was to lock in some gains at the 20 DMA. Keep half of the position but instead you say to just keep holding and now everyone may suffer a unnecessary drawdown.

    1. Gary Post author

      So I’ll ask again. In real time where would you buy back. Yesterday you said you would for sure have bought back by the close yesterday. Does that mean you would have gotten stopped out today?

      1. Robert

        No I would have only bought small so it is better to ride out a small position than keep holding 100%. Anyway not blaming you but I just believe that it would have been better to take partial profit than saying to keep holding

        1. Gary Post author

          Ok now for the next observation. Until the close today there was no compelling reason to take profits. Up until the FOMC minutes the market was still confirming the slingshot. In fact it was confirming it after the FOMC minutes as well. It wasn’t until the bond market started to tank that stocks started to give back the early gains.

          So let’s assume that you got spooked and sold at the close. The question remains the same. When do you re enter? So far those that have waited until their emotions give them the all clear have just gotten whipsawed repeatedly. So do you play this strategy or do you try to buy into the dip at some point. If so please tell us when and do it in real time.

          I’m going to make a prediction that by the time the next IC top has formed those that have just followed the smart money will have made a significant amount more than those who have repeatedly jumped in and out of the market.

          1. alvinheart

            Gary, I sold all TQQQ today about mid-day because I got spooked. It was a tough choice. The main reason was that the gap in the morning was not filled by midday, and the market was going sideways with a slightly upward bias, a little erratic. I figured there was a 90% chance that gap would get filled, perhaps at the end of the day or the next day. And when the gap got filled, I didn’t have a lot of confidence that the Qs would immediately reverse. So I sold, and then went to meetings, then saw that, indeed the gap got filled. This choice saved me 7 points on TQQQ, from 167 to 159.5. But you are right — now I am on the sidelines, unsure when to get in again. Currently the aftermarket has the Qs down. If the Q’s open down tomorrow, I will probably buy 25% or 50% back in. I think your work is excellent and usually always follow your advice. But here I am indeed a little spooked and don’t want to give back the earnings you have made for us.

  3. Goild

    A correct strategy in these times is indeed to take profits, many little profits to make a super big profit.
    This is the ANT trading way.

    OK to RANT, an ANT is not a RAT.

    JNUG showed today very good resilience which is hopeful.
    However, GOLD did not like the prospectus of higher interest rates.
    Adding that USD is threatening to climb, the conclusion is a grim scenario for the miners.
    I am holding 3K GDX shares. Hate to lose money, or shall I say return some profit.

    On March 21st at 2:00 PM, there will be a big gold spike first up, then to sink.

    Vin’s take of JNUG at $8 may come true.

    Anyone stubborn holding JNUG?
    Take some precaution, switch to GDX or GDXJ.

  4. Gary Post author

    Attachment

    Here’s another wrinkle that can be thrown into the mix. It wasn’t until today that the dollar broke the cycle down trend line. 15 days should be way too short for a daily cycle. Perhaps the correct way to view the currency cycle is as a really stretched cycle and the trend line break today confirmed the DCL 3 days ago.

    If this turns out to be correct then the dollar could still test that bull trend line before the final ICL.

    This is a perfect example of why I will never trade currencies. During the currency war they are just too erratic and unpredictable.

      1. Gary Post author

        Yes.

        The bounce out of the January low never confirmed a DCL by breaking the trend line. The more recent bottom three days ago has been confirmed as a DCL.

    1. Gary Post author

      Seriously? Are you going to continue popping up every time we have a down day and then disappear again when the market rallies?

  5. desertsun999

    I know that I have said this numerous times but I’ll say it again, when the bond market breaks down that is when everything will go sideways.

    1. Gary Post author

      Attachment

      If we were to have a bond crash then I would agree with you. But I don’t think we are ready for a crash right now.

      The 10 year is at a potential support zone at the 50% retracement.

      1. desertsun999

        It might not take a crash Gary. Just the confirmation that bonds are going into a bear market might be all it takes.

  6. desertsun999

    I was listening to an interview with Fred Hickey, the tech stock guru, and he commented that he believes that 20% of our total debt has to be rolled over into now higher rates over the next two years. That is going to be one big ouch.

  7. ras

    Interesting range of opinions. That is what makes the market. Financials and tech are among the strong sectors. I would not be surprised if tqqq were to drop to 155 zone during this volatile period. Recent sharp down swing in sm sent vix to the 50 level. This does not happen everyday. Sm is just trying to crawl out of this OS condition. The initial effort is bound to be rickety with a bit of churning and a down side bias. Unless one has a crystal ball, future down side price trajectory is not completely predictable.

    In my view, it is best for every player to chalk out his own strategy to suit his personal risk tolerance instead of relying heavily on extraneous views.

  8. Robert

    The best way to play the market is TQQQ. Take it from me do not buy options unless only 10% of your portfolio. At least withh TQQQ u can set a nice stop loss and manage the trade. Options will make you stressed out

      1. Gary Post author

        I invite you to try. The leverage on options is too large to use stops. Options are basically an all or nothing bet. Using stops will just guarantee you lose money.

        This is why it’s extremely important to buy lots of time with options. You must be able to weather drawdowns due to imperfect timing.

        At the moment I have September & January call options. I want lots of time for them to work if we were to experience a retest or a couple of months of sideways.

        1. MrBurns

          I disagree, you can step out of options as easily as stepping out of stocks/ETFs. They are not an all or nothing bet, dammit you know better than that Gary, come on now, don’t tell me you’ve never closed out a losing trade and sold options at a loss. .

          1. cazabrujas

            You’re talking out of your ass if you think that getting out of long-term options is as easy as getting out of a regular stock

          2. MrBurns

            cazabrujas, I trade options all the time. I can buy and sell any contract, regardless of liquidity. Price might be an issue at times and that is why I pick correctly and not randomly.

            Maybe you’ve had an issue closing out a call or put, that has never happened to me.

          3. vin

            Not all options. Some of them are almost impossible to get rid off if things do turn sour. And, in percentage terms the losses on the original bet can be tremendous.

          4. Gary Post author

            Burns,

            I never said you couldn’t get out of options. I said using stops with options will guarantee losses. If you are only going to allow your position 10 or 25% before stopping out that is nothing more than an ordinary daily wiggle in most options. You will end up getting stopped out over and over and over.

            We can use the current setup in the stock market as a perfect example. The wiggle over the last few days would potentially cost an option holder somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 to 20% or more. One could stop out and take that loss and then potentially miss a several hundred percent gain because you didn’t allow the position enough time to work. Multiply this 5 or 10 times and you have discovered an amazing strategy for consistently losing money.

          5. MrBurns

            OK I see what you meant, it wasn’t clear in the first one.

            With options you get to know and understand what is the point of no return when Theta decay and low Delta are too far ahead to be able to come back. Many times I’ve let options go lower than 50% as the Greeks were still favorable, you are correct on that aspect.

  9. Goild

    OK, here is how I will speculate with the extra money I recently put my hands on:

    XLE is at $66. Once it hits about $62-$64 I will load shares.
    GLD may drop under $120 and then I will load shares.
    OIL may get to $55 and then I will load USO shares.
    May increase my GDX shares.

    Of course there is BTC, pot stocks, and other exciting things, like fancy women.
    But I do not know anything about those exciting things.
    Will speculate on what I am familiar.

    Oh, I forgot to say. At some point I will be a sub and follow Gary’s good calls.

        1. Bob

          You sign up for a one-month trial subscription on Gary’s site. The gamble is “Are you prepared to learn and generate more than $50/month through that learning”.

    1. vin

      Just be careful with oil. I fully understand that almost all the smart ONES are calling for a lower oil. My “feeling” is that oil is headed to 71 and we will see it before 2018 Sep. So, yes load them up at 55 sounds great but I would consider twice before shorting at present.

  10. Goild

    Oh,

    I sometimes also listen.
    Robert is right.
    There is no substitute for joining the winners.
    Play TQQQ.
    And occasionally UVXY.

  11. jacob2

    Posted this more times then I care to think about:

    “No bubble, trading range 2500 – 2750 on the S&P, which will be with us for a very long time. ” Todays late big reversal occurred after almost tagging 2750. Eventually, some recognizable consolidation pattern will emerge. In the meantime ( think months/quarters) it’s whipsaw, chop and shred time.

    Lots of noise out there but think this scenario holds up.

    Going forward mostly Interested in buying commodities. Cheap compared to everything else.

  12. Goild

    One thought I did not think earlier about today’s GOLD/miners dropping, is that perhaps they were carried down by the SM.

    Soon we will find out.

  13. DaZeD

    Geez, it was a kind of volatile day with a bit of down not all that unusual and I do see the fuss everyone’s making… Christian, what’s this I see about losing faith in this short oil trade so far… stops aren’t hit 🙂

    1. Gary Post author

      I suspect if I go back I will find this guy has been trying to call a top and a recession for years.

      It will take years for the Fed to withdraw all the liquidity that has been pumped into the markets over the last 9 years. And one would have to assume that they would continue to withdraw liquidity if stocks start to suffer. I think anyone with half a brain knows they will stop or even reverse if the stock market starts to stumble.

  14. Anthonyo

    Oil and silver being taken to the wood shed in Futures market and each being lashed simultaneously equal number of lashes each. Both down more than 1% .
    Beginning of slide to $55 area for oil where it belongs at a minimum.
    Without Saudi manipulation and stock market rallies puhs, oil should be at $49 fair value right now.

  15. Gary Post author

    Attachment

    A divergence is forming on the TSI as bonds near a final ICL. Once bonds bottom the volatility should start to ease in the stock market.

  16. Gary Post author

    Attachment

    The weekly price is getting too stretched below the long term mean. There should be a regression event soon.

    On the other hand I was right last year when I said a bear market had begun in bonds. It sure did take a long time for the second leg down to begin though.

      1. Bluebellkid

        In general, higher interest rates are a bearish factor for equities.
        However, research by John Lynch, chief investment strategist at LPL Financial (LPLA), shows that when the 10-year Treasury yield is below 5%, the two-year correlations between the S&P 500 and interest rates have been positive.
        “With the 10-year yield not having eclipsed 3% during this latest bond market sell-off, we think we have a ways to go before the level of interest rates impairs economic activity or the stock market,” Lynch wrote in a recent note to clients.
        While there is widespread sentiment on Wall Street that the Fed will hike interest rates by a quarter point three times this year, a significant number of futures traders believe it will be four rate hikes. According to the CME Group, there’s a nearly 30% chance that the fed funds rate will be at 2.25%-2.5% by the time the Fed holds its final meeting of the year on Dec. 19.

  17. Jim Dandy

    Uh oh, imaginary tokens that get pushed in the image of gold (the gold ¨coin¨, referred to as ¨mining for coins¨, etc), which makes no sense considering the bitclowns hate gold so why try to make connections to gold, is going below $10K this morning.

    Sell before it´s too late, bitclowns. $10K is going to look like a ridiculous joke in a few years, better to be able to say you sold it there, than bought more!

  18. Gary Post author

    Of course we’ll need to see how the day closes but it’s starting to look like a lot of dumb money traders got kicked out of their positions right at the bottom of a two day pullback.

      1. Gary Post author

        Attachment

        Exactly. Wiggles often succeed in knocking retail traders out of their positions early in a new intermediate cycle. Then they have no plan for how to re enter. Usually they leave it up to their emotions. When they feel comfortable that’s when they buy. That usually leads to drawdowns.

        We’ve already seen several people caught in this cycle.

        I’m going to put forth what I think is a more dependable strategy and one more likely to make money than lose it by letting ones emotions whipsaw their accounts.

        Simply buy long when the smart money confidence level is bullish and hold on until one thinks the intermediate cycle is likely to have topped. Let’s face it, insiders and the big banks are much more likely to have inside information and a better idea of where the market is headed than a bunch of retail traders armed only with a charting subscription. It seems far more likely that simply following the smart money should produce superior results. At least it does to me. And over the last 9 years this strategy has never been wrong.

        1. Christian

          It’s a great strategy and yes, who gives a damn about the wiggles when you’re buying at the bottom but for those unfortunate few Souls at SMT that bought at the top; it’s a different story :/

          I know.. by the time this IC is over everyone will have made a bundle but that’s not the point of this comment. It’s about learning to manage RISK no matter what the Weekly Chart is telling you.

          That’s why I always recommend people to keep a bit of dry powder in the bank in case the floor caves in one sunny afternoon..!

          1. Gary Post author

            We started buying way back at the August ICL. If others are late to the party that’s not my fault. I’ve been trying to convince people to get long stocks for 7 months now.

          2. Christian

            You bought AND sold throughout the past several months and RE-CONVERTED to Leverage on January 21 Gary.

            My ‘very important point’ still stands.

          3. Gary Post author

            Over the last two years the stock portfolio is up 172%.

            Do you think we got there without having to weather some drawdowns along the way?

            Folks drawdowns are just part of the business of investing. If you think you can avoid them and still make money you are deluding yourself.

            Most of the retail trader types that frequent these blogs and or newsletter writers would like you to believe that they have found the key to investing without ever having to weather drawdowns. They want you to believe they have the key to trading without ever having to suffer any emotional stress.

            I can assure you none of them have found that holy grail.

            As I’ve pointed out none of the leaders in the challenge have been able to avoid drawdowns. Everyone of them has had to weather them.

            If you listen and pay attention I can show you a more successful method of investing. On the other hand you can listen to your emotions or the charlatans claiming to have mastered every wiggle in the market and just end up repeating the same mistakes over and over.

            Right now the smart money is saying the correct strategy is to hang on to long positions until it looks like the next intermediate cycle has topped.

          4. Christian

            Not at all questioning the overall performance.

            My comment was about managing RISK and recognizing potential RED FLAGS.

            I hate it when my point gets lost in translation, ugh!

          5. Gary Post author

            We have such a huge cushion that we can afford to take some risk. Based on current sentiment levels risk is small right now compared to reward.

            Like I’ve said many times in the past, the time to buy is when you are scared. That’s usually when risk is lowest, although most traders emotions tell them the exact opposite. This game is all about doing the opposite of what your emotions tell you to do.

          6. Christian

            You’re preaching to the choir 🙂

            Just because I’m making an astute observation on methodology does not mean my emotions are running amok!

            I’ve been pouring money into stocks since 2011 thx to Steve Sjuggerud who was one of the first to call the ‘Melt Up’

          7. Gary Post author

            Well then what’s the point of panicking over risk or red flags? All that does is weaken ones resolve and invite emotional mistakes.

            Since none of us have a crystal ball this ultimately boils down to trading ones beliefs. You either have the discipline to stick to your belief or you let every wiggle infect you with doubt causing emotional decisions.

            We all use the tools we are comfortable with to try and give us an edge. I would argue some tools are much better than others.

            In my case I prefer cycles, sentiment and to some extent trying to follow behind the smart money (hence the name of the newsletter).

            Tools I consider mostly worthless: Letting ones emotions dictate their trading decisions. Chart patterns. Indicators that every Tom Dick and Harry have access to. Elliot wave. There’s probably a few more but I can’t think of them at the moment.

  19. Bluebellkid

    I didn’t listen to the video but one should always use weekly charts to start with. On investors.com it is the default chart when you view charts. The weekly is what tells the story. I don’t believe anyone here thought we were going straight up back to new highs although the “slingshot” reference may have contributed to that thinking. A down day here and there is normal and expected. Big reversals are a different story. Volume was running below the prior days level while the markets rallied yesterday and then when they reversed volume picked up. There is a battle going on for the 50 day. Friday’s close will help sort this out. Take the high and low of the week and add it up and then divide by 2. This will give you the midpoint range of the weekly action. A close in the upper half is bullish and closes in the lower half are bearish. Closes in the mid range area denote indecision on investors part.

  20. Gary Post author

    Attachment

    Here’s an interesting wrinkle. The dollar never rallied above the cycle trend line coming out of the January low. So it never really confirmed that bounce as a DCL. Yesterday price did break the trend line finally confirming a DCL.

    If the dollar were to turn down quickly it’s possible we could still have one more daily cycle before the final ICL. That could achieve the trend line tag I’ve been looking for but was starting to believe we weren’t going to get during this intermediate cycle.

    If this scenario where to play out gold could still have one more higher high before beginning the ICL decline in earnest.

    How would that be for a wild ride?

    1. carlvan

      Gary, if you noticed, DX came back upwards almost exactly to touch the former declining lower megafone line. Kiss and good bye and heading now now.

  21. Goild

    Good day to all!

    It seems that today will be a good day for gold/miners as they will rethink yesterday.
    I have my hands tied today and will not be able to day trade.
    Have a great day!!!

  22. Christian

    OIL bounced off its 10 DMA and my spidey senses were bang on! Switching over to the BULL CAMP

    Will exit OILD at the Bell..!

  23. carlvan

    That’s quite a recovery for stocks: NQ up 120 points from the pre-session lows!! And I am still in with futures contracts. I have a very loose trailing stop way way below now. I start to think I might be able to hang on until 10k now…

  24. JJHarmen

    Once again we see that over night futures trading provides no clue what so ever as to how the American markets are going to behave the following day. Big over night S&P futures sell downs are ALWAYS reversed the next morning. Must be that pesky PPT at work.

    1. carlvan

      JJ, that I think I can explain easily and you seem to point the same reason already: stop hunting by market makers; I believe that this is why we often have a first trend the first 30 minutes of the session: market makers only. But if and when the majority of traders (smart, dumb, retail, etc) are in the same direction as the market makers from the first minute, trend won’t reverse and just go on. Otherwise, the first 30 minutes are “fake” and trend will reverse after all stops from the night have been taken out. My 2 cents.

  25. Gary Post author

    The Q’s are forming a major resistance zone at $166. Once that breaks I suspect we’ll make a beeline to the all-time highs.

  26. Christian

    The day is still young BULLS and we’re not out of the woods just yet!

    We need to get out of this nasty consolidation first before we can claim victory. Fingers crossed 🙂

    And if we can get there by tomorrow’s market close then Gary’s Weekly Chart is gonna look like a ‘Rock Star’.

  27. vin

    today qqq is vertically UP about 0.5%.

    And. there are still 4 market days to the start of March the month of 10k. And, then may be 20k? Is everyone as excited as I am?

  28. Gary Post author

    If the Q’s can close solidly above that $166 resistance zone today we might be ready to continue the slingshot toward the all time highs.

    1. vin

      Thanks Gary. Fun aside. I still haven’t lost hope yet. And your confidence is contagious. Keep it up Man.

    2. vin

      You certainly are right. There is some selling pressure around 166 but it looks like we will make it that is close above 166 and if we are lucky may as well above. Good luck.

    1. Gary Post author

      You are trying to boil sentiment down to one survey. It doesn’t work that way. This is just one component of the intermediate optimism index. A much more pertinent component in my opinion is the Smart money and dumb money confidence indexes.

      1. cdntrader

        Well as I have said many times sentiment is a lot harder to measure than most people admit. One persons favorite index is another ones irrelevant index. I do know that a lot of people look at the investors survey plus there is no denying a lot of dumb money bought. So that tells me there is little fear..lambs waiting to be slaughtered. But this dumb money could drive a brief sharp rally.

        1. Gary Post author

          Sentiment is not hard to measure you just need a subscription to to sentimentrader.com. And dumb money never buys at the bottom of corrections. They buy at the top of rallies. Only smart money is able to control emotions and buy at the bottom of corrections. This is why the smart money confidence index becomes bullish during the downturns.

          You can keep making the same mistakes over and over, or you can purchase a subscription to sentimentrader and start learning how to control your emotions.

    2. alvinheart

      There is lots of fear in the market now — and in particular fear of a double bottom correction. It is easy to feel everywhere.

      1. cdntrader

        Bs. There is no real fear..most people think it was a glitch that caused the mini crash. People think that markets can only go up. I know fear..it was latev2008 and early 2009..nobody was bullish..everyone expected the bear market to never end.
        We should have fear but there really isn’t any.

          1. cdntrader

            You may be correct..a panic to buy increases likelihood of a blowoff top
            But it’d not smart money which will drive the bubble.

    1. Anthonyo

      Old chart from 2012. Missing 6 years of data. US Shale oil has changed the equation in recent years.

    1. carlvan

      If you switch on the daily chart: NQ correction the last 3 days was smaller than with ES and YM, so it looks normal that it’s bit lagging now I think; and, from an intraday perspective, consolidating very near the highs of the day is never a bad thing – let’s see where she goes….

  29. allthatglitters

    Call me crazy but it seems like JNUG is hanging pretty tough. I’m not convinced it’s going to fall much further.

  30. Anthonyo

    Oil B-wave up bounce is ending soon; peak $61.8- 62.50…………Wave C down could start soon taking oil to $55-$56 level by mid-March or so.
    Or not.
    Seasonal down will end in a couple of weeks too.

  31. Anthonyo

    NAZ is usually the leader up or down; it is pulling down today; is just not with the program. The main horse is dragging while the other two horses are pulling.
    Which will win the day? my bet is on NAZ.
    Kind of an unsure lukewarm stock rally. Feels like no umph or conviction.
    Today could be a B-wave bounce before a C-wave down again.

      1. Anthonyo

        Stocks showing all signs of divergence between indices…. Unfinished business from 2 weeks ago Friday low is pulling on the market…. will not be surprised to see a retest of lows coming up.

    1. Robert

      I think the market is consolidating. The bull flag still seems to be intact as long as it does not go down lower than yesterday. Its going to frustrate the hell out of us. No slingshot just a slow grind up

      1. roadrunner

        Slow grind up is fine with me. just get your position and go do something else…or find something else to trade while the SM grinds. higher. LOL

  32. vin

    qqq in negative territory again? This has been a consistent trend for a last few days, up in the morning and then down in the afternoon.

    Interesting!

    Is there a reason for it? Any explanations from experts? Or, is it just one of those things to loot those who are waiting for 10k?

    1. carlvan

      Look at the 240′ chart: after a first strong leg up from Feb 9 to 16, we now have a flat expanding ABC correction: this is extremely bullish IMO

  33. primetime

    NADA,
    You out there? Looks like the market is giving a fourth or fifth opportunity to jump on the train before it leaves the station.

    1. Nada

      Afternoon primetime. Had a death in the family, so different outlook on life has been invoked – that does not include the markets for now.

      1. RTTPD

        Prayers and positive thoughts sent your way Nada. Have thoroughly enjoyed your keen analysis – hopefully you’ll be back in the future.

        Peace be with you.

      1. DrJ314

        The week isn’t over yet…that candle could look like my mother by the end of the day tomorrow…who knows?

  34. Strike2

    The recent miner underperformance relative to POG smells of an attempt to hold the dog back by pulling its tail. Humphrey Hawkins maybe the motivation?
    Whatever my degree of paranoia, historic low stock valuations are screaming for attention.

  35. Gary Post author

    Folks pay attention to what is going on. The Q’s are making multiple attempts to break through the resistance at 166. This is consolidation, not topping.

    Once the breakout occurs price will make a beeline to the all-time highs and it’s going to pull the rest of the indexes up with it.

    1. MrBurns

      At this rate, as I mentioned above, Nasdaq weekly chart is printing a bearish hammer. Tomorrow needs to be very green for it to not be confirmed, at least 80 point gain to 7290 zone.

      I realize that these candles are not always 100% predicative.

    2. Bluebellkid

      That’s what is causing the angst. QQQ has hit 166 or higher the last four trading sessions and been rejected.

      1. Gary Post author

        This is how resistance eventually breaks. Once it does then it becomes support.

        If price had just tagged this level and then headed back down I would have to agree we would see a retest of support. But that isn’t what is happening. Instead price just keeps knocking on the door. Eventually the door will open.

          1. MrBurns

            Yes but the bull flag is only on DAILY chart.

            Nasdaq also has a daily bull flag, actually it still remains the strongest as it has held within previous uptrend channel.

          2. Gary Post author

            I’ll point this out again. Over the last 9 years going long and holding positions once the smart money index gets bullish has never produced a losing trade.

            Which do you think is a better strategy. Following the smart money or getting lost in chart patterns and indicators hoping to avoid what would likely only be a temporary drawdown anyway, and if one is out of the market and misses the next leg up you aren’t going to get a second chance.

            Yes we all would love to time perfect entries and exits but realistically I don’t think any of us are going to accomplish that goal consistently.

          3. MrBurns

            If it was just a question of hold long and wait, you wouldn’t put out daily videos and commentary.

            You know very well that interim action also counts, if the market dropped 3% tomorrow (not saying it will) I’m certain you wouldn’t ignore it. Also, you use charts for your purposes so suddenly dismissing them is not logical.

            Yeah, I get it, you look at cycles as your tool, at sentiment for … sentiment, and mostly they work out. Dismissing outright anything else would be akin to myself dismissing sentiment or NYSI, NYMO, CPC and all the rest.

            Just saying, WEEKLY charts are printing Bearish signal going to the last day. maybe the result will change tomorrow, maybe not, Maybe the effects will be a another drop of 2%-4%, so here it is, I’m pointing it out.

          1. cdntrader

            Yeah 9 years into a bull market is the time to get real bullish. And also when dumb money is buying the recent dip..and also when the 30 year old bull market in bonds has just ended..and we hit all time record values in bullish sentiment a few weeks ago.
            Yup..because every dip over the past few years was a buy then this has to be a buy..right. It seems to me that the time to be super bullish was at the end of a bear market not the end of a bull market. I doubt Gary was too bullish in 2009.

          2. Gary Post author

            Actually I called the bottom the day after it occurred. I waited for a swing. Of course at the time it was just an ICL I didn’t know until later that it was going to mark a final bear market bottom.

            I’ve already posted the dumb money sentiment chart several times confirming that dumb money was panicking at the bottom. For some reason you refuse to acknowledge that fact.

            Assuming a bull market has to top at 9 years is completely illogical. The last two secular bulls both lasted much longer than 9 years. There is no history to suggest a bull market is old or mature at 9 years. In fact history suggests the exact opposite. Secular bulls have tended to run 20- 30 years on average. Based on history we would still be early in a bull market.

            I however think there is a decent chance this bull may accelerate due to QE and we could get a final bubble phase over the next 6-12 months instead of having to wait another 10 years. That of course remains to be seen if I will be correct on this one. It doesn’t really matter though as the game plan remains the same either way.

            I’ve also posted the ROBO ratio multiple times and shown clearly we don’t have the kind of complacency that exists at final bull market tops and certainly not at bubble tops.

          1. Bluebellkid

            Price and volume action?? I don’t follow. I don’t see anything significant about 166 and that is why I am asking. There are no MA’s associated with that area and no BB’s. I haven’t done a Fib retracement so maybe that is it, was just wondering.

          2. x33e

            Bluebellkid
            February 22, 2018 at 1:27 pm
            Why is 166 resistance?

            Most institutions and hedge funds trade technically, and 166 is the .764 retracement of the decline from 1/26.

  36. MrBurns

    Attachment

    $166-ish is resistance as there is a bunch of profit-taking around it from previous buyers. Once all that is done with, price should get above and stay there. May take one more try, or maybe five, but the more it attacks a price – either on the way up or down, the weaker the line becomes.

    1. Bluebellkid

      Ahh – 166ish, now I get it. Usually it is a defined number as in a moving average so that is why I was questioning 166. I see that it is has topped out in the vicinity of 166 but was wondering what the significance of it was.

      1. MrBurns

        So if/when it gets above that, it should act as support. You notice it was failed support on the first break above, you could justify it with ‘there wasn’t enough volume’ at the time which is technically correct.

  37. Infamous_M

    Hello, What are some good ETF’s to buy during the rally to NAZ 10k?

    Since I’m taking a break from GOLD and PMPIX, I’m looking to get into something before GOLD’s ready.

  38. stary

    Thanks Gary for the site and your sage advice, I appreciate being able to check in now and again.
    I have to say it is a pleasure when people are positive and not mean spirited.
    Anyway..
    The Long Term Up… I’m with you.
    For me and the way I Play I agree with Burns…. the Weekly is Broken… but so is the Monthly.
    Spy cannot begin to reset, if it should, until the 1st week of April.
    As a Swing Trader of 7 yrs the Grain is Short on Spy so it is “in an out short” until then with a daily reset.

      1. Robert

        We are not of the woods yet. If u noticed tha Spy close at lows 2nd day in a row. Its testing support more than resistance so it could still break downwards

      2. MrBurns

        I see more upside potential especially in NDX than other indexes. Today’s development in the weekly chart though is concerning, so tomorrow will be telling. I’m not saying the weekly is broken at this point Stary.

        My divergence from your views Gary is that I expect a more controlled upwards continuation in equities, while you are leaning more towards a sharp rise (although lately it seems you’re less in that camp, maybe I’m wrong).

  39. Anthonyo

    There is a possibility we could retest lows; before rallying to highs again…………….but the way the market is acting last 2 sessions it is doubtful we are going to make new highs immediately.
    It feels like 1 cylinder is not firing out of 3 cylinder major indices market. Rough idle, not a homogeneous pull. Like we have unfinished business to tend to before we go higher.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m seeing flag patterns in all the indexes. Those are usually continuation patterns.

      It’s possible you are seeing something that isn’t there because you want the market to rise faster than it’s ready to.

      1. Gary Post author

        I’m not agonizing over every little wiggle like most here. I’ve chosen to play a different strategy. When the smart money confidence index gets bullish and the market is in the timing band for an ICL history says the correct strategy is to buy and hang on. Ignore the wiggles and let the position work.

        That’s what I’m doing.

        1. Bluebellkid

          U.S. stock indexes Thursday continued a recent trend of strong starts and weak finishes, a classic characteristic of a weakening market. Thursday was the fourth session in a row that the indexes reversed off intraday highs to close low in the day’s range. While that’s no reason to panic, it might make the bulls justifiably nervous.
          The confirmed market uptrend remains intact, but the weak closes can’t continue without eventually graduating to greater harm.

  40. Bluebellkid

    February 21 (King World News) – From Jason Goepfert at SentimenTrader: “Shades of ’87 (among others). Over the past year, stocks have rallied, and the dollar has collapsed as the Fed raises rates. That is similar to 1987, but there were also other dates that didn’t lead to nearly such dramatic results. After similar setups, the best-performing asset was commodities….

    https://kingworldnews.com/shades-of-1987-foreshadows-staggering-gains-for-gold-commodities/

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