88 thoughts on “March 6 forum

  1. x33e

    With DX retesting the breakdown point, how will your short-term metals outlook be affected if the dollar resumes its decline from the current level? Are you expecting another metals downleg even if the dollar weakens from here?

    1. Gary Post author

      Of course. The dollar still has to give us an intermediate degree rally at some point.

      1. isavage

        Hi Gary That’s very disappointing news about the video updates. However thank you for sharing what you have & letting us none sub’s work out how good your calls can be & decide about signing up or not for the SMT premium.

        1. onerobot

          Well I’ll tell you what isavage in this man’s STACK of Archives there is more than enough lessons, to learn from , Keep one very busy for months and months ! II know from personal application !

  2. carlvan

    Thank you for all your free and amazingly accurate analysis Gary, I will certainly re-subcribe one day or another to the Premium membership

  3. vin

    I am really frustrated. Why doesn’t the darn market not listen to this blog? It was told to go vertically UP in a parabolic fashion. And, guess what DOW is dowN? Let us call them for a hearing right on this blog.

    And, if that is not all, look at the darn gold. It was told to go down. And, the darn jnug is up about a buck????

    AND, oil?

    Is anyone else as frustrated as I am?

    1. Vortex

      You’re exactly the reason why this blog is now closed to unhinged idiots that lack the capability to reason.

      1. vin

        How can you be so sure? Let me ask you if you ever made a penny in the market?

        Those who depend on such blogs usually end up like you.

        My post doesn’t reflect on Gary’s incredible predictions from time to time. He is good.

        1. vin

          Christian, that is a double standard if I have seen any. You have seen what Gary said on the sub board! And, you have even posted your comments there.

          But, I am not surprised at your hypocritical behavior. That is expected of you.

          Talking about being fed up, you have been shut out of this blog more than anyone else. I was never given that privilege, not even once. LOL!

          1. Christian

            What can I say.. Vortex made a very astute observation and I agree with him 100% 🙂 No double standard intended.

        2. Vortex

          Christian, just pure luck I suppose.

          Not sure what Gary’s motivation is for limiting his public content, but I do know that most people don’t realize or appreciate what they have or had until it’s taken away.

    2. ras

      No, not here. It does not pay to focus too much on the distant scene. What counts is what is at hand, within easy reach. Gary is a great analyst. He plays the intermediate cycle. This works very well when there is not much daily volatility. When volatility is high, one may want to take advantage of it instead of holding through the intermediate cycle.

      Interest rate hikes are beginning. The market is not going to roll over because of it. Future sm uptrend could turn out to be highly volatile. One should be prepared to deal with it.

  4. JJHarmen

    Gary, seriously, it is this blog and your frequent analysis that is making you famous. You are already rich so why discontinue what is building your reputation as one of the best analysts out there? It’s not like you need the subscription fees.

  5. Goild

    Attachment

    You get what you put in.
    You put ants you get ants.
    You put rats you get rats.
    You put high thinking you get high thinking,

  6. Don

    There will come a time when almost all rallies will be faded…. it’s called a bear market and something many investors have never experienced. We used to get them on a fairly regular basis back in the day when the SM was about people trading the market as opposed to what we have today which is more about computers trading and on the constant lookout for any opportunity to skim a few points either from one another or from real human traders.

  7. Goild

    I also agree with JJ and Don.
    By reducing the SMT content, Gary may not get all the credit he deserves for his work.

  8. Goild

    Attachment

    For a strong slingshot to 10,000 there is nothing like the momentum imparted by a COIL

  9. Don

    Nvidia, Amazon, and Netflix still being pumped up to even more absurd valuations. Interesting to watch how a bubble forms.

  10. Americano

    Totally think video content etc should be for subscribers only.
    Yeah, throw one out free every month or two but let’s face it….
    If content deemed valuable people will subscribe & get the real time calls too.

    If not they either don’t think its valuable enough to sub or the returns they get from the market are so meager, they’re kinda losers ( you don’t have to think this is true……you feel it ) .

    If that’s the case, they are on wrong website! This one is more appropriate:
    https://www.bankrate.com/cd.aspx

  11. Syntax

    Thanks Gary, for all of your video’s and analysis. I’m already subscribed to another premium service, but its been an interesting point of comparison to see your calls vs other analysts. There is a pretty good chance I’ll be switching over to your service once my other subscription runs its course.

    Wouldn’t have found out about you if not for your video’s. I’ve also referred plenty of people to your blog due to them. Will be sad to see them go.

  12. Lemonjelly Junior

    Since when has “Ron Paul”???!! become a financial guru??

    Today:
    ‘There’s no stopping it,’ warns Ron Paul: A ‘calamity’ could cut this market in half

  13. Lemonjelly Junior

    Time for option play in stock indices seems to have gone…back to grind higher tools.

    Avi GIlburt still expecting a plunge to SPX 2500 or below. He is always the bad news bear.

    Me, I think the fireworks period is over.
    Back to grind higher.

  14. Gary Post author

    Attachment

    Knocking on the door again… and holding above the 2000 high of 1363.

    1. ras

      What will tqqq do for an encore when it reaches 182 again? After a/b/c rise what next? Interesting times ahead.

  15. Jim Dandy

    Gary, have you thought about running a promotion again to get people to sign up? Seems like you always had a whole slew of new subscriptions when you gave a discounted rate. Maybe more would sign up with a discount, considering the price raise went into effect last year.

    Since you have been on a real hot streak, seems like it would be a good time to remind people to pony up for the real reports.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m tentatively planning on retiring in the next 12-18 months and I’m going to quit offering yearly subscriptions on Saturday. From that point on only monthly subscriptions.

      So I don’t really care about adding a bunch of new subscribers.

      1. Pennystocks

        Gary, Please say it aint so ? I look forward to your opinions and commentary EVERY DAY . It is really not in my personality to throw out compliments unless it is truly warranted however: YOU ARE THE MAN ! when it comes to trading and market related insights . If you go it will be truly truly unfortunate for all that adhere to your work on this site !
        It is one thing for us to pick up the cycle analysis HOWEVER you have a intangible that cannot be bought or probably not even taught ! And that is your 6th sense of market awareness and insights . We wish you would please reconsider ? Would you consider maybe 5 more years ?

        Much Thanks for all that you do ,…………..

  16. mrtommifunn

    Thankyou Gary for all you have done. Ive followed you for a few years now and remember when you would only get a maximum 30 comments on a post. You have improved my trading no end and im truly grateful. We all learn from some one so can i ask, who was your mentor? once again many thanks
    Mrtommifunn

  17. Clarence

    Good move Gary.

    You don’t need the hassle, disrespect or aggravation. It’s just additional work, stress and not required.

  18. Goild

    Attachment

    About 13M GDX shares were bought (and sold) at the last minute before the close.
    There are 355M shares outstanding,

  19. victor

    Gary D. Cohn, President Trump’s top economic adviser resigns and look at SPX now…, those 10k on Nasdaq are going to be bloody….

    1. Gary Post author

      My God you people are slow learners.

      These things never effect the market for more than a day or two. Korea shot a missile over Japan for heavens sake.

        1. victor

          thanks Gary, I learned so much from you…, and I’m going to buy your future book for my kids….
          my proposed name for it – “Smart Money Tracker Notes” by Gary Savage

        2. x33e

          The bull market does revolve about not having a trade war. You are correct in your observation that news-related declines have been very short-lived. If this one is different it will be telling. The January 26 high could be a significant top given that Cohn resigned because Trump is ready to declare a trade war with China, something he has been discussing publicly for decades. China would expected to sell US bonds in retaliation, thereby dramatically spiking interest rates. It is fine to believe that this too shall pass as long as you are ready to bail if things deteriorate, which could happen imminently. Benefit of the doubt goes to the uptrend until proven otherwise. So, Gary, what would prove otherwise?

  20. ras

    Nas going on a lonely walk parting company from dow, spx, oex, nya, xmi, djw, etc. At some point it could get funky from the solitude and lose its grip.

  21. bigglaze

    We’ve all seen this stuff before. An event happens after closing. The futures will have recovered by morning, if not soon after. No need to hit the panic.

  22. bigglaze

    Looking at the after market price of udow, tqqq, you’re really only set back a couple of days if the price stays where it is.

    1. Gary Post author

      You are seeing things. The futures are only down a little over 1%. Pretty much standard over the last month. 1% swings have become the norm and historically this kind of volatility has led to superb returns over the next 6 – 12 months. In the neighborhood of 17%.

  23. GMoney

    Before Trump starts a trade war he should walk through a Walmart or Home Depot and see how much of the merchandise is made in China….probably 70%+. If China stopped exporting to the USA for a month you would see bare shelves in these stores. On the other hand, what does the USA export to China? Scrap metal, scrap card board, diabetes, pornography?

    1. Gary Post author

      The tariffs are on steel and aluminum not Chinese exports.

      Seriously, do you really think China could just all of a sudden stop exporting to the US? Who is going to buy all of the “stuff” they manufacture? What would that do to their economy if they all of a sudden lost a major buyer?

    2. roadrunner

      First of all, no tariffs have been levied yet. Second do your own research on the issue instead of trusting what you are told on bubblevision. Did you notice this story today? If not why not?
      https://www.marketwatch.com/story/kobe-steel-ceo-to-resign-over-reputation-shaking-data-scandal-2018-03-06
      50 years Kobe steel has been cheating.
      weird isn’t it…just after Trump “fires the first shot” in negotiations by announcing steel/aluminum tarrifs.

      did you see this story? if not why not?
      https://www.wsj.com/articles/mnuchin-tariffs-wont-apply-to-mexico-canada-if-nafta-is-reworked-1520355429

      Do you realize that Trump (and the politicians) will be putting forth a trillion dollar or more infrastructure plan? Do you want the steel to come from South Korea? major exporter of steel to USA, yet they produce ZERO. like many other countries who export steel to USA, South korea exports Chinese steel. as do other countries.

      As for Canada and Mexico, also in top 10. They will be exempt through new nafta negotiations. steelworkers unions in canada/usa are buddies..like auto unions. No worries there. Watch.

      There will be no trade war.

      N. Korea is now neutralized. probably a slow steady process towards re unification over the next few years. the CIA heroin trade out of Afghanistan has been shut or severely crippled. The Pharma opiate pushers are being shut down.

      The SM will just chug along higher. that’s my opinion.

  24. bigglaze

    Futures have hit bottom and are in the way back up already. I’m pretty sure by morning they’ll be on the rise again.

  25. dboz

    Just my $.02. I would be looking to buy GBTC here on any pullbacks. Monster move coming in BTC. That is the parabolic move you all lust for. No one believes it can happen. New all time highs will get shattered and may get to insanity level. Just my prediction.

    Is the contest still happening or is that dead now?

    Gonna miss the info Gary posts. I have learned much.

      1. Gary Post author

        Attachment

        This looks like an imploding bubble to me.

        The bell ringing was when Patrick Byrne came up with the brilliant idea to sell his profitable retail business and jump on the blockchain mania.

        1. dboz

          RIOT is just a renamed BioTech company that plans on trying to mine BTC. I do not see that as a good representation. Plus, it had a news hit piece that busted the recent momentum as it was described as a fraud that caused that huge dump from 17. But I understand the risks. We will see if jaws drop at how they stared the gift horse in the mouth, smacked him in the ass, and watched him run off into the sunset. BTC is a world phenomenon. Lots of places to have people throw in money into a very small and finite market. Lets see if that guy you posted a video of several months ago starts buying again! LOL

          Just consider the big picture that we had an A, B and now need C up. Or even better, Wave 1 and 2 are in the books and now giant wave 3 is on deck.

          1. dboz

            Very real chance for at least at test of 25-30 again. I would take 150-200% gain by the end of the year, wouldn’t you?

  26. Don

    Over night futures trading have no predictive value what so ever. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a rip your face of rally tomorrow during regular trading hours.

  27. Cybo33

    Please stay. Discontinue public blog if you must and simply continue to do at least some version of what you are doing until gold bubble plays out or just simply do a more enjoyable way of doing what you are doing.

    You are incredibly good at what you do. Please don’t leave.

  28. Goild

    Does any one know why sometimes, or often, at the end of the session the volume of a security becomes very high but the price stays about the same?
    For example, today GLD had a volume of 900K shares in the last five minutes and the price kept at $126.50.
    Will highly appreciate any insight in this.

  29. Goild

    Some interesting stories @

    https://www.quora.com/What-is-it-like-to-make-millions-in-trading

    “I am was immigrant with no money. The idea of making millions from a $20,000 stake never occurred to me. But that is what happened during the raging bull market of the 1990s. I went from this lonely trader scalping for a few hundred bucks here and there into a raging egotistical asshole. I did all the stupid things like your newly rich professional athletes. I bought multiple houses, cars, and so on. But eventually it was a sad and hollow experience. It wracked my relationship with people around me. Also trading alone from your home for a decade made me anti-social. I developed speech impediment from lack of interaction with people. Eventually I knew it had to stop. I wanted to do something more productive. I have since built a reasonably successful tech startup since I stopped trading.”

  30. Goild

    I like this:

    “Trading is not a battle, high risk high reward game, it’s thought out meticulous research on trade structure. Don’t treat it like roller coaster, rather a long term chess match that you should win over time ;)”

    1. Christian

      “.. rather a long term chess match that you should win over time ;)”

      That means choosing to exercise PATIENCE over INSTANT GRATIFICATION Mr ANTMAN 🙂

  31. Goild

    Hi Christian,

    It is not all instant gratification.

    I still have 2K GDX shares holding over a month.
    Have 500 GLD shares already for a week or so.
    Also 400 XLE shares.

    If I do not get into a terrible falling knife I get most often at least $500 or more a day at nearly zero risk.
    This is pretty good instant gratification 🙂
    Of course I should be making a lot more, but this is what the ANT can do now.
    Tomorrow who knows?

    Time to go to sleep.

    Have a good night.

  32. Lemonjelly Junior

    “North Korea has now been neutralized.” !!
    Famous last words.

    Sure, and that’s why Trump is soon putting PRC under his thumb and pressing hard via Draconian tariffs.

    1. roadrunner

      just watch and learn. if i am wrong I will come back admit as much..but very confident that will not happen.

  33. Lemonjelly Junior

    Someone forgot to tell gold, a tariff-related fiasco is coming I guess.

    It is but snoozing loudly now in Futures trading. Not even a beep.

  34. zkotpen

    Gary,

    “I’m tentatively planning on retiring in the next 12-18 months”

    Bravo — quitting while you’re ahead is not the same as quitting 🙂

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