Challenge update

Dennis G +299%
John K +104%
Troy S +99%
Robert S +70%
Daniel M +56%

The SMT stock portfolio is up 38%
The SMT metal portfolio is up 23%
I haven’t done anything with the energy portfolio

The top three places got there with huge bets on tiny penny stocks or bitcoin. Probably too risky of a strategy for most investors but it is paying off in the challenge.

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60 thoughts on “Challenge update”

  1. Steffmeister

    I am ripping the face off the market, like Greg Mannarion usd to say …

    Taking advantage of the Super Full Moon 🙂

    https://www.timeanddate.com/astronomy/moon/super-full-moon.html

    Energy being released in the precious market
    http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/quote?symbol=v.csr

    Lundin Gold, smackdown:
    https://www.avanza.se/aktier/om-aktien.html/528238/lundin-gold

    How owns a boatload of CSR stock and bought Lundin Gold today at 28SEK, not all in by any means, just starting to accumulate.

    Still waiting for x other miners …

    2. Gary Post author

      Of course no one is going to buy any of that because you won’t enter the challenge and make real time trades.

      You’re just another Monday morning quarterback until you step up and play by the same rules as the rest of us.

  2. Bob

    I’ve been doing some research trying to understand bitcoin and particularly how to mine without buying. Doesn’t look like an implementable strategy without significant computer resources. In particular what I don’t understand is why the process seems to consume so much electricity. Any thoughts? Computers don’t generally seem to consume large resources of power.

    1. Roy Batty

      Mining is super competitive … Iceland is a great place for it. Cheap geothermal electricity and the low temperatures mean no need for air conditioning the heat produced by all the computational work being done. The miners are validating, authenticating, decrypting, and ledgering all the transactions and I guess that requires a lot of processing. All that work is what provides the security and trust.

    2. isavage

      Hi Bob – here’s my tip

      Mining BTC is already to difficult & none profitable for people who are not gong to invest a boat load of cash.

      However you could mine other Cryptos or tokens on a home set up.

      1. Bob

        I agree, Bitcoin and I presume other cryptos start with relatively easier computations which become more complicated over time. The time to get in is when the calculations are easier. The only risk is time invested and with enough diversity one or two other cryptos may actually make some money in a fantasized environment.

    3. RTTPD

      Bob/Roy ——-

      This video came out last night, with Cliff High explaining how for the average person it’s nearly impossible to mine bitcoin.

      Cliff High knows what he is talking about with regard to Cryptos — but I would never for a second listen to him and act on his advice about PM’s or SM.

      Gary is far more astute.

      But the interview is very interesting nonetheless.

    1. Gary Post author

      Yes the Quest is beating the pants off of everyone…but the rules are no option trades in the Challenge.

  4. isavage

    SUPER CONGRATS TO ALL ALL THE CHALLENGE LEADERS !! 🙂

    Nice to see everyone making money & share there experiences here along with Gary on the blog. I enjoy learning from everyone here.

  8. Don

    The SM is having a good day but those who bought TQQQ are not enjoying the ride. the Nasdaq is headed in the wrong direction.

      1. Gary Post author

        Stay focused.
        10000 is going to be a piece of cake, and 20,000 isn’t out of the question.

  9. cazabrujas

    I don’t think penny stocks should have been allowed in the challenge. The reason I say this is because, in 99% of cases, buying or selling $100K worth of a penny stock significantly changes the price. If you do it on paper it might work, but not in reality. If you ever do another challenge, maybe you should rethink the rules to only allow stocks that have a minimum price/volume to ensure liquidity when buying/selling.

    1. Gary Post author

      Probably a good idea. I have some doubts about that one trade. I don’t know why anyone would put 100% of their portfolio in one tiny penny stock and then have the good fortune to have the thing rally over 100% in one day. It almost seems like there might have been some insider knowledge on this one.

      1. Bluebellkid

        Exactly! RLOG has been losing money for years. Last year’s losses were 0.31/share and this year the company is expected to lose 1.08/share. 29 funds owned it a year ago and that number is now down to 12. Like I said the day the trade was made there is no fundamental reason to own this stock.

  10. vin

    We are headed up. 10k is piece of cake (by june/july?). And, 20k isn’t out of question.

    btw I am not talking about btc. For btc it is given. I am following Gary and hoping it happens to nasdaq. And, you what? Nothing is impossible in this world. Amen!

  11. victor

    so, now Russia is about to implement it’s own “CriptoRuble” , it’s considered as a huge plus to the Russia’s economy…

    1. Gary Post author

      He’s been trying to call a top for at least a couple of years.

      He’s another one that got suckered into the bear market camp during the 7 YCL and never got out.

      1. m0ntana

        I second that. KER brings Chris from time to time to give opinion on oil prices, he’s seldom right – this despite the fact he calls himself oil and gold guy.

    1. Nada

      Depends on when the ICL is 🙂 Everyone seems to think it will be FOMC. Even with that date, you have another week and half to sell. However, it has been very strong in regard to dollar and USDJPY performance. I still think the ICL is late Jan, but I certainly will be watching closely over the next week and a half.

  15. ras

    Jerky bubble, 2 steps forward, 1 step backward plus asynchronous sector movement. Great for swing traders. Big money seems to be after value rather than glamour for now. This could change later. ndx needs to digest its gains before the next spurt.

    Congrats to all top performers.

  16. ras

    gap up over week end news invariably is a sell point. Euphoria peters out before the end of the day. Same script plays again and again. Human nature never changes?

  17. Jimsee

    anyone use ‘aurelius value’ the short seller? just saw his website and if/when we top it may be useful.

  20. Americano

    Gary
    Many youth contact sports programs divvy competition up not by age but by weight class.
    I would like your opinion on doing the same with your challenge.
    Having Bitcoin amongst stocks & their indices……just isn’t a fair fight.

    1. Bob

      Bitcoin can’t be traded for purposes of the competition however GBTC and BTSC would be fair game for those wishing to indulge.

  22. Nada

    So in regard to Gold, at the close we had +126m buying on GDX, and the algos sold -57m on GDXJ. For GLD, the algos bought 165m. Let the games continue, but gold flows showing a move to the downside is not likely, for tomorrow anyway.

  23. Surf City

    Gold is at a major inflection point in my book but I expecting a breakout to the upside in 2018 too begin soon.

    ​​​​​​​https://www.investing.com/analysis/gold-intermediate-cycle-update-200270051?preview_fp_admin_1234=this_is_1234

  25. RonL

    Looks like NASDAQ is not waiting for late Jan for ICL as Gary felt for the timing. Appears we could be moving to an ICL well beforetrhe FOMC meeting.

    1. RonL

      P.S. If this only a half cycle low, I will wait for a bounce into the FOMC meeting, sell and ride the sidelines until the ICL completes.

      1. Gary Post author

        Assuming the market continues lower this week then this should be a half cycle low and I would expect we will be back testing or at new all-time highs by the FOMC meeting next week.

        We still don’t have the excessive sentiment levels that usually indicate a larger degree intermediate top.

        And as I pointed out in the chart there is absolutely nothing wrong with the big picture. This is volatility to ignore.

        10,000 is going to be a piece of cake, and 20,000 isn’t out of the question. But there are going to be dips and bumps along the way.

  26. Don

    Gary, can you think of another time when two asset classes were in a genuine bubbles either at the same time or with one immediately following another? We had the tech bubble of 1999-2000, the housing bubble of 2006 -2007, a gold and silver bubble of 2011. One did not immediately follow the other. Bitcoin is currently in a bubble that may go on for some time yet, What makes you so sure that a Nasdaq bubble will follow on the heels of the Bitcoin bubble?

    Perhaps you are not taking the threat of more central tightening seriously.
    .

    1. Gary Post author

      We had a real estate bubble, followed immediately by an oil/CRB bubble.

      Central banks create these bubbles with their insane monetary policies.

  27. vin

    bitcoin at 11,572.09! Vertically up?

    Soxl down more that 10 bucks at 130.50. Vertically up?

    But then are both said to be in a “bubble”.

    Any doubts?

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