I’m wondering what the reaction in the dollar will be to a 25 basis point hike. I think that is already priced in.
What may not be priced in is a very hawkish statement following the rate hike or a 50 basis point rate hike (unlikely but possible especially with the German numbers this week).
Will this lead to a dollar decline and s top in the current cycle or will it cause a correction perhaps early and have a shortened daily cycle with the next one being the long daily cycle that includes a parabolic move.
What do other people think on these points and on what the ECB will do in the morning?
TZ, I found you arguments interesting, but also find some faults.
1. Your comparison of GDX:GLD. Few if any here invest in large cap miners. It has been well publicized of the hedge funds going long gold and shorting lg cap miners. Obviously you need to be using GDXJ for your comparison which shows a completely different picture.
2. You spoke of Sept being the peak in SLW:SLV, but it is very clearly in Dec. So it has been just for this cycle to date. Quite frankly SLW is turning or has already turned into a lg cap also. You are like a statistician here using what will make your point.
3. Most folks here following Gary are already 65% 2x SLV.
4. Your implication about options is probably mostly correct, but anybody buying at the intermediate bottoms as I did (Jay, Poly, and a few others) is currently up hundreds of percent now and may well outperform your 7x with little risk.
5. Few here will do futures for several reasons. Risk is most obvious. Account size is second. From reading you and about your tight stop, I reason your account isn’t large because these positions cause you long periods of sleep deprivation until you can breathe. Most folks do not care to live like that even for money. A well financed trader would place a trade with confidence, and a workable stop, and not live like that.
5. You said “Why not wait until stocks are CLEARLY outperforming metal on a ongoing and continuous basis? So far that is not the case and single days or a few weeks don’t qualify.”
Since the 08 bottom, your chart shows clear evidence that the trend line (SLW:SLV) did not break until January. You act like this has been going on forever. 12 weeks to be exact.
I don’t mind you stating your case, but wouldn’t it have saved a lot of typing and BS to have brought that 3 year chart up and said hey folks, we have a trend line break here. Clear and continual evidence indeed.
Actually there’s a German Gold Conference going on in Munich on April 29th, which I may attend depending on this final wave. I’ll be sticking around to watch the fireworks.
Thanks for the reassurance with SLW. I trade it on the Canadian side slw.to, my disappoint has been amplified since the CAD/USD has been so strong. Given the exchange, slw.to hasn’t even broken the 52 week high yet.
I too have a decent portion of my funds in SLW.TO – I believe that we can sleep well at night and be happy with its performance.
I bought in at 31.36, very close the the intermediate low and am up 40% in 9 weeks. Sure, others are up much more than that, but they are much more sophisticated than I am and have taken on much more risk.
Does anyone even remember Jan. 29th and the week following? We were all unsure if it was a fake-out or the real thing – a lot of people here were nervous. If things went south I would have lost quite a bit less – Risk/reward.
I am a schmuck who has a 40% return on his investment in 9 weeks. SLW ain’t that bad, Ryan
I wish I had that great of an entry. Unfortunately for me, it took me awhile to fully buy into Gary’s analysis so I’ve been buying all the way up. I even added to my slw.to last week. But you’re right even with my late entries, it’s not too shaby. However, a couple of big out performance days vs the metal would have me grinning like the joker.
Just wait until we are at the C-wave top before getting too discouraged. It’s just a guess, but I am expecting SLW to be at $60. Again, just a guess but judge its performance at the C-wave top.
When the A-wave begins, you could invest in HZU.to (it is the Canadian equivalent to AGQ). I own a few shares in that too and will probably have most of my $$$ in that instead of SLW when that A-wave is upon us.
Thanks for the info I appreciate it. I’m currently over weighted in HZU/AGQ and the rest is in SLW.TO and some in SIL. So far HZU has definitely out performed but that’s expected since it’s a 2X leveraged fund. I know my risk tolerance has been tried a couple of times when we had those -10% days. I’m fully loaded now so nothing to do except just sit on my hands.
A fair number of points, comments, and rebuttals to my assertions.
I would have counter observations and further commentary on much of what you have said, but I’m pretty confident the overall concept is out there and I have given my supporting data as I see it.
Many of our discussions revolve around how people believe charts should be read. What time frames to use data? How far back in history is relevant? Is use of *any* history relevant (some say no)?
I will let darwin take over from here for better or worse for all involved. There is only one reality (vs multiple opinions) and to the extent that any of us correctly interpret and resolve the issue I have raised – that person will (over) profit handsomely.
Perhaps it won’t be me and my arguments are wrong.
It wouldn’t be the first time.
I will continue to monitor and adapt as I suggest everybody else do as well. I’m pretty sure we will all do well. I’m only trying to tweak that.
Contrarily, the guys in charge would like to drive us back down below the breakout in gold and try to paint a weekly ‘reversal spike’ in gold (and hurt silver).
Thanks Alex, I answered you on other link also. Hmmm, it appears everytime there is a new link (post) from Gary, we have to check the box on that new post to follow emails on gmail account. (Hence folks using TEST). 🙂
ALEX Yeah, got your response. Ryan is pointing out the ultimate methods, especially for a corporate solution. However, I know with my travels attempting to run a VPN through my home computer would be problimatic/frustrating. The third party VPN is way less hassel and does all I’m really needing. Haven’t been to China lately, could be that they are blocking commercial VPN’s by now..??.. Anyway personal protection serves not only you, but those you contact. (where have you heard that before). Side note: I’ve noticed way more spam on one of my email address since that online company got hacked and addresses for millions have been outed from many online retailers. One of them must have been Lowes or Home Depot…never seen so many offers to remodel…
Sold my GDXJ may calls this morning to free up some cash. Would like to roll it into SIL and AGQ if I can get a pullback at the end of this daily cycle. Am I just being greedy?
I havent rec’d the spam, but I got 5 companies telling me their email system got hacked and not to open spam.
FATBOY!
1)I like the weightgain in the picture 🙂
2) I dont think I ever said I like AUY. I bought that yrs ago and made money, but it hasnt had a very decent set-up lately.ACTUALLY , I just checked it…looks like it wants to break out SOON. Good volume as it approaches the prior high! Looks good
3) I love EXK,SVM,AXU,AG…I am looking at buying GPL when/if it starts moving again ( I would have to sell something to get it)
4) I think you’re gonna gain more weight…better buy new cloths
TZ, The main thing I found fascinating about your work was the 3 year SLW:SLV chart. You should re-post that 1 chart and everybody should have it near and dear.
I think SLW may change character when it breaks above 46, BUT if it just goes up and kisses the bottom of that ratio trend line and falls away, I will use that as one tool concerning an exit of that position.
I posted about XG going on the AMEX awhile back from the Pink/Canada only. It is now rising on heavy volume. People seem to like these stocks that come over to the US.
1) GREAT flag pattern on a 1 yr wkly (and everyone hates it now 🙂
2) Its still a good company-had a HUGR run up…consolidation. On a 5 or 10 day /15 minute chart…I see a downtrend . Yesterday I thought the open was ‘capitulation sell-off’, when everyone throws in the towel and sells (high volume) Everyone on this blog hates this one now too. I could almost hear people saying, “If it goes below $4..I’m out!” It did.
3) It bounced away from the capitulation low and retested it at the close yesterday on lighter volume. That is often the last sellers bailing out on the bounce.
4) So today I want it to rise off that bottom with good volume (it is so far), and break that down trend line( it hasnt yet).
Oddly enough, in my whole portfolio…GPL is my biggest % gainer.
Thats a lot of work to some, micromanaging a stock, but I like it.
Appreciate your comments re what’s likely to happen today and tomorrow. We do want a nice looking weekly candle, so let’s hope for a close tomorrow near the high of the week.
Yes, its not there quite yet, but I do still own it anyways,so if I’m going to add, I would rather make sure that it’s ready to move up and miss a little of the initial move,rather than jump in here and see it testing that low yesterday again…or lower.
Brian
I never saw XG. Thx,nice chart (a bit light on volume, but so was MVG and that hasnt stopped that one)!
I did a kinda/sorta lottery thing on some GLD May calls at the money. My timing sucked, they were underwater for a while, but now green. These are the only May calls I have.
I have a limit sell order on half of them when GLD reaches approx 147, a target I believe is possible to be reached as this daily cycle tops.
I plan to add June or July calls at what I hope will be near the bottom of the upcoming daily cycle low. I’ll probably go with deep in the money for those, but maybe try a small lottery again.
(As I was typing this, I’m starting think maybe I should change the limit order to sell ALL of them during this daily cycle.)
I will post this one more time from months ago for new people:
img808.imageshack.us/img808/4606/hui2cef.gif
It is a long term (entire bull mkt) chart of the $hui against CEF (which is simply half gold and half silver).
Nothing has changed in the last few months. It has actually gotten worse.
Clearly the $hui (same as GDX) has been a crap investment since 2004.
Yes, there are wiggles on the chart as it moves lower, but why try to trade them? You will have as much success as trading almost anything else.
If you want to argue “but I can pick better stocks”, fine. Please go ahead and I wish you my best. But that is it’s own task with it’s own pitfalls.
When stocks clearly turn around, break that trend and start to perform (as the masses start coming in this market) I will consider stocks over straight metal.
The thing is, I think that most of us (Gary included) are expecting the expected outperformance of the miners to happen pretty much immediately (ie, in the next 4-5 weeks) because if Gary is right, that’s when this C-wave will hit its blow-off euphoric top.
Gary thinks that we won’t see another C wave for about 3 years.
That said, the vast majority of my capital is still in AGQ. : )
traderlady, thanks. I’m only about 80% invested and am dying to spend the rest – usually a bad sign. My plan is to sit on the cash until I see a pull back, but greed is making me worry I’ll miss it.
>The thing is, I think that most of us (Gary included) are expecting the expected outperformance of the miners to happen pretty much immediately (ie, in the next 4-5 weeks) because if Gary is right, that’s when this C-wave will hit its blow-off euphoric top.
You have the words “…I THINK that most…are expecting”.
Can I plainly and directly ask if you have LOOKED at what ACTUALLY happened for all previous C blowoffs?
CMT, Not hard to be greedy under a government that rewards debtors and takes away the interest rates for savers. What is wrong with this. Oh, and there is no inflation so Soc sec gives no raises. Enough! 🙂
REE stocks are showing strength/bull flags, including MCP, REE, and AVL (very close). Canadian listed QRM and TSM are trailing and may be good plays here, especially if volume picks up on a breakout of the consolidation. Disclaimer: I bought most of these issues in late ’09, selling enough along the way to pay for the initial costs.
This is just play money so I will push it out to June or July depending on what these stocks offer.
On another note,I am trying to convince family members to get in on this before it’s too late.(end of Cwave). It’s just you feel nervous when your dealing with others money. Also when that money is larger than yours.
>TZ, Given your charts, why are you bothering with futures. You could just kick back with your CEF and let the bull do it’s work.
Actually there are very specific answers besides just ‘seeking alpha’;
1) I can’t leverage CEF beyond 2x. 2) It has the highest tax rate compared to the advantaged futures. 3) It has overnight gap risk whereas the futures are 24hrs. 4) It also has gap risk whenever they buy more bullion (although they dont’ dilute the stock). 5) It would be difficult to place a stop on CEF with a large position. You’d hit and blow out the bid ask since the volume isn’t there. 6) It is a PFIC which has another tax issue.
So it isn’t a simple response about ‘alpha’. There are concrete reasons and I know what they are.
But for the purposes of simply illustrating a point of stocks vs. ‘metal’ over a decade, it works fine.
I am considering selling everything in the next 2-9 days, and then converting to a Roth IRA. If the daily cycle low usually dips to the 10 day moving average, do you think I should wait a few days for a daily cycle low to buy my shares back?
Riding FREE shares, cant beat that alone, but riding these little rocket ships…Priceless 🙂
and I was watching REE too, great volume again
Traderlady
I got in a tad late & jumped out a little early last time (cup and Handle formed Oct to Dec, got in on the breakout near $5+). It had a huge volume spike and I bailed out at the top area a bit early. I think the $9 area ( Only 2 days later!..I was afraid ..lol)and it went back up to almost $11. Still was very happy though. This one moves fast, not for the jittery.
DMA50/200, Ask your broker if you can just move your shares from one account to another. If it is the same broker, you should have to sell and buy back, just move shares.
I was inspired by Garys performance over the weekend so i went to the gym and tried the clean and jerk. 61kg on my second attempt but now my back has been stiff for the past 2 days.
“…At the bull market top we will see any and every crap little company with the name gold or silver in it going up 100% a month.”
So true…I remember a company (pennystock) that had ‘Gold’ in its name , but was NOT a miner or explorer…and it took off with the c-wave top and crashed after. No joke. It was Goldstone or Goldenstone , or something.
reminded me of the dot.com bust when people threw a dart at an internet dot.com name and bought it.
DailyMovingAvg50/200 Don’t know the specifics of your planned conversion. If it is, say, a traditional ira to a roth, you may not need to sell to move the assets (especially if both accounts are with the same firm). Also, that sort of xfer can be very quick…like one day, depending on how the trustee works conversions.
Since the 08 bottom the majors have hugely outperformed gold and matched the return in silver.
Silver miners have crushed gold and silver both.
Most juniors have also far surpassed the returns in both gold and silver since that bottom.
One can always data mine a specific point of time and say see this is how it is. I often hear people quote the under performance of gold from the 1980 top compared to stocks as an example.
Over the long haul one will make a lot more money in the mining stocks than they will in the metal. Sure there will be times when they will under perform and if you know how to spot those periods of under performance ahead of time then invest in the metals during those periods and switch back when it’s the miners turn to shine.
I dare say no one will be able to do this successfully throughout the bull so why not just allocate capital to both.
Or if you are comfortable with the added risk you can play the ultra funds. Those will consistently outperform both the metal and miners as long as you exit at tops and don’t ride them down into D-waves.
DailyMovingAvg50/200 WHOA! Again don’t know the specifics of what you are planning, but you may not need to have any tax withheld (and especially not from the retiement assets). I have always paid any tax due from non-retirement assets as either estimated or at regular tax time. I understand if your situation doesn’t allow that, but drawing the taxes out of the Roth proceeds is a serious hit. Don’t take it without reason.
Im thinking of playing miners in the A wave and doing some shopping… did some comparing on the ETFs, and NUGT really doesnt impress when compared to GDX, or GDXJ…its piddly volume is weak too.
w, ok whoa!!! I will consider converting about 50% of my IRA to Roth during the pause for the d-wave. Need to convert the portion that I will not be redeming in next 5 years only.
If something happens in the market, stops get hit, contingent orders become active, get filled and we buy back once things settle down, making another boatload of money on the way back up.
Nothing to worry about as long as you are being smart.
Three points I’d like to bring up for you, Gary, if you please:
1) In your interview you were saying that we can expect AGQ to outperform its X2 function to about 130%. Then the guy asked you what you would expect the AGQ price to be if silver were to get to $50, and I think you said about $400.
Is it me or….? that doesn’t seem to work out for me…. that’s 8X
2) regarding the inevitable D wave …. What do you think would happen if the Middle East trouble worsened over the next year or so (which I think should be considered, as there would seem a clear possibility of it happening).
Say it would lead to closure of the Suez Canal, and perhaps even the Islamic Brotherhood in Saudi Arabia eventually stopping the sale of oil to the west??
(My guess would be that the dollar would get into serious trouble, and the normal D wave consolidation would be shortened, followed by a steep A wave..)
3) Here in the UK in terms of the British pound, probably like the euro, the top of the C wave might not be so dramatic….and the D wave not s steep as with the USD.
If the pound falls with the rising dollar, the precious metals will possibly be worth hanging onto….
Thanks Gary. Congrats on the superman thing. Please don’t get too popular with the investment advice or you’ll start having an influence on the markets!!
AGQ is 2x, but I’m pretty sure it’s re-leveraged daily (otherwise AGQ would suffer the ‘leverage trap’). The returns should go up exponentially so 8x might be possible at $50/ounce silver.
DailyMovingAvg50/200 Happy to read you are refining your plan. I have been doing incrementail conversions for the last three years and have avoided using any retirement assets for taxes. I was going to add that conversion sooner rather than later might be better….especially if you can direct xfer stuff geared to Gary’s work…:-)
John, In point 1 your math may be ok, but your thinking is faulty. Gary’s comment was to the effect that agq MAY get a little more than a 2x effect during the ladder part of the c-wave. So, IF silver has, say, 50% to go, then agq might see 130%.
AGQ to 400$ .. to answer that question … if SLV gets to 50$ thats about a 30% increase from here … AGQ is a 2x Ultra Fund, which therefore assumes a 60% increase. 60% of 250$ ( current AGQ price ) is 150$ … 250+150= ?
If moneyman was smart, he would require that everyone entering his bbq toss him a SAE. That’s how you can tell that are from the SMT and not some joe off the street coming for free food.
New to this site. Great discussions re investing without all the abusive content on other blogs. I’m trying to ride this C wave and appreciate all of your support. Thanks Gary and fellow bloggers.
OK, rookie sub here. Can someone share a little about conversions from traditional to Roth IRA’s since it’s come up today? I’m in my 30’s, with my traditional balance about 8x what my Roth is. I just started contributing to the Roth in the last couple of years and have thought about conversion but taxes suck. What advice would you give on conversion? Convert a little each year or something like that? Thanks. Totally love reading this blog every day!
Kevin, is there a way to roll it over and extend out your tax burden over a couple of years. Talk to a tax man or your broker can refer you to who would know.
Razvan will entertain at the BBQ ..He said he would make an attempt on world record in clean and jerk.
“If moneyman was smart, he would require that everyone entering his bbq toss him a SAE. That’s how you can tell that are from the SMT and not some joe off the street coming for free food”
I`ve got the feeling that when this crowd starts selling, there are going to be more than a few grins and bbqs going around. Again, thank you Gary and all those that add so much to this blog.
Kevin Several points to consider,here are a couple. Do you trust the gov’t to maintain the Roth setup? What is your current marginal tax rate. Can you swing the conversion without using ira money and still do your annual contribtion. And that’s just some general stuff. As a practical matter, I converted one of our son’s ira soon after the Roth was created (another never had a traditional ira), however, it was best for me to delay piece-meal conversions until my retirement due to a better marginal tax rate (amt is enough hell all by it’s self). For your specific situation, get your calculator out or spend a few bucks or a tax advisor to form a plan.
I have traditional and Roth IRAs. I converted to a Roth late last year, and was fortunate to be able to pay the taxes out of my other non-IRA savings. I would urge you to do the same if you can swing it.
I will keep the Roth as is for the foreseeable future, but since I believe (and I know there is a difference of opinion here on this point) the government will exert greater and greater control over IRAs in the future in terms of ‘approved’ investments, at some point I will likely cash my traditional IRA and move the funds into PMs. When I do that will be a line of scrimmage call, but I will want to take advantage of the tax exemption as long as possible.
Open question to the forum: Assuming that we have the ultimate conviction that the A,B,C,D gold wave pattern will perform as anticipated, why not short GLD/SLV on the D wave? If we have the confidence to go long on A and C waves, shouldn’t we also have the conviction to go short on B and D waves? I understand that we are in a secular PM bull market, but help me to understand why one wouldn’t short the PMs on the D wave, when this correction is just a likely to happen as the rest of the A,B,and C waves that preceded it. Thanks!
I am new at this Blake. But I am a decent parrot and I have learned one thing:
Never short a bull market. Your risk is infinite!
Now, I am still tempted to buy a 2x leveraged silver or gold short ETF but I am focused on getting to the top of the C wave before worrying about all that.
Angry Hippie, He didnt’ know so I laughed and said, don’t they do that all the time? I don’t think he knows as much as Gary. No worries, we have stops in place.
Vonda Your thought is loaded with speculation and “what ifs”, even if the math seems to work for you. Sometimes the right course is to take the pofit that stares you in the face (when the time comes)…and in thiat case, look to Gary to recycle the proceeds into more profit. Besides your gov’t needs the revenue, I’m sure you’ll get a thankyou note……
The reason for that Blake is the old saying that “surprises come on the upside” in a bull market. Even though we expect it to happen emotionally it can be very hard to trade.
BTW my wife has an IRA that we trade and at first I wanted turn that in to a regular account but I want to use that money as leverage. If you don’t need it, just keep it in there and cash it in 15 years from now when it is enormous.
Thanks all for your considered replies. I was considering riding the D wave with a short silver/gold ETF, which would cap my risk exposure (albeit for a max loss of all capital allocated to purchase the security). But it seems the resounding consensus is to let the D wave correct the parabolic C wave gains, and buy back at oversold levels and ride the A wave back up 🙂
John, If silver goes to $50 that would be a 25% increase from today’s level.
If AGQ were to double that it would rise 50% or about $375 from todays level.
If AGQ goes to $400 or a little higher that would be about 66-70% gain. Thus slightly outperforming it’s intended 2 times goal.
The dollar will put in it’s three year cycle low right on schedule what happens in the oil market is meaningless. We will have another brief deflationary period as the dollar rallies. That will drive commodities down into their three year cycle low regardless of what happens in the middle east.
I’ve thought about long positions vs short positions and relative risk, and I think the two risk profiles are about equal.
You can lose all you have either way.
Thinking you cannot go below zero on the long side is scant comfort in the real world. I doubt that anyone here invested in the PM bull could ride their current position to zero and still be solvent.
But Gary’s point of not shorting bull markets is a good one.
Thanks for the IRA advice. The big question is “Do I trust the government?” I guess that’s the elephant in the room for everyone.
I do have a very low (basically nonexistent) tax rate right now and for the near future. I don’t make much, I have 2 kids in diapers and my wife is at home with them for now.
I’m changing careers, so hopefully making more in a couple years.
If you must play the D-wave then do it with a few puts so you know what your total risk is. And be prepared for a volatile ride.
You think it’s been hard to hold on to long positions it will be ten times as hard to hold onto short positions during the D-wave.
All of you thinking your going to short the D-wave and make a killing are in for a rude awakening. I doubt 1 in 10 of you will make any money at all and most will end up losing some of their C-wave profits.
By the time the final blow off top of the C wave is complete, the short silver and gold ETFs should be worth almost nothing, right?
I am having trouble seeing how we would lose money with those. I will stay out based on trust, but I feel like I must be missing something fundamental that I would like to get a handle on so that i can make smart decisions in the future. You know, once your fortune is made, you own your own mountain, or two and are done fooling with the PM markets.
First time commenting here. Been reading this blog a while, especially since January. I notice a serious decline in this blog’s content/value and want bring it up to Gary, and also everyone else, for comment and improvement.
Two months ago, a decent percentage of comments were from knowledgeable, active traders. Their insight was very valuable, especially when Gary joined the conversation. As this final c-wave progresses, I see more and more new people are commenting, fewer of these knowledgeable traders are replying and the sheer volume of comments (time to read) increasing. Some of the reasons I see are:
1. Low value questions. Some questions are easily answered with 10 minutes serious thinking or a few Google searches. This clogs the blog with unnecessary comments and tires out the good traders who stop responding to the same questions over and over again.
2. Noise. This is a blog about riding the metals bull, Gary’s fundamental views and his model portfolio. However, only about half the comments discuss these topics. (Asking advice if you should sell your options, or a hot junior gold miner, are off-topic. Gary isn’t touching them for valid reasons, so they shouldn’t be discussed on the blog. There are other blogs that focus on those topics. Want to talk off-topic with someone – exchange emails and go offline like many have done. Otherwise, it’s all noise/distraction.)
3. Egos keep popping up. Some people get defensive when others discuss their strategy/ideas and some people make comments that seem rude or superior. The reply comments start spiraling out of control. (Drop it and deal with the message, not its presentation. Most traders have egos, a personal desire to be “right”. You have to believe in yourself to be a good trader, so it comes with the job, but we must tone it down for the blog. If someone is out of line, let’s remind them nicely when replying that we need respect for a productive blog.)
Regardless of whether you concur with the reasons above, or have other reasons, I think we can agree that currently:
-We are losing the active, knowledgeable traders. I have seen several quality people mention in the last week that they will post less or only periodically review the blog. Huge loss to all of us and the reason we are reading the blog to begin with.
-We have now lost Gary. Gary can’t keep up with the blog anymore. This is a big deal, as we are here because of his insight.
-The blog will take up more and more time to read/comment. Time is money, and causes knowledgeable people to limit their participation.
We really need to do something people. I’m on the verge of leaving the blog myself for these reasons. I’m amazed Gary hung in for this long.
PS- If any of the above offends you, then please know I was talking about everyone else but not you, so don’t take it personally. 🙂
PPS-Please don’t respond with “just skip comments if you don’t want to read them”. I try to read everyone’s comments to learn and be fair, and separating the good from the noise is just getting too much. Offer a better solution please.
H, The double funds will undergo a reverse split at some point.
These are not stocks theses are derivatives of gold and silver. If you buy high and sell low you will lose money. And that’s exactly what most people will do. They will buy the inverse fund when they become convinced the D-wave has begun.
That’s exactly when we will get a violent counter trend rally. Most will freakout and sell as it will look like the C-wave isn’t finished.
This is how most people are going to lose money trying to play the D-wave.
The only successful way to ply it is to buy a few puts when you think the top is in and then close your eyes and look at them again in a couple of months.
Thanks. My account is ‘only’ up 35% since reading your blog in late February. I am still a little shaky on why stay out, with an understanding of the potential D into C type head fake you could avoid the emotional sell. But I know when to listen, too.
I’m unaware of a 3x silver ETF, but it’s easy to create that position.
You can buy the SLV May call at the strike price that sells for 1/3 the price of SLV. That would be about $12.85 currently.
That would give you 3X leverage with about zero time value.
Of course, you will have to listen to TZ telling you you will go broke buying options. Ask him how his silver commodity position can go up without SLV also going up an equal percentage amount.
Gary, Any thoughts on playing the Vix, possibly through an ETF like VXX. The complancy in the market is mind-boggling and one would think that this can’t continue.
I do, if and when it can regain the 20sma and get more volume in the buying. drab volume today.
Problem is (in the back of my mind) where we are in the cycle. If we get an overall pullback for a bit…this chart could retest that $3.50 and double bottom, but I dont think so. Its doing O.K. for a semi-down day…oversold on stochastic, MACD still above zero line…hoping the worst is over for this.
TRADERLADY
We’ll see , huh? I could get ‘shot down’ tomorrow! 🙂 But so far, SHZ is looking promising in a few ways.
Gary’s motivation to work puts for the d-wave, if you must do something in the PM world, is what I’m practicing now with puts on ZSL. If Bob Love Hawaii would get back in here, we might all learn something. It was motivation for him that got me to start the exploratory position.
Kevin Good to hear you’re thinking ahead with a realistic veiw. Sounds like the first priority is being able to fund the ira you’ve got (Roth or otherwise). thinking about your kids made me grin, well remember when our were that age…. 🙂
F Ditto what Gary said. Even the couple times I’ve made money with hitting vxx right, it wasn’t worth the effort…not to mention the losses exceed the gains….
I hope so too, I’m away on vacation the week of the 18th and was hoping to have my sales made this Friday and all of my cycle bottom buys made by next Friday the 15th.
I still like the idea of going long the dollar at the d wave. gary has said it would be a “safe” play. i will give garys play the the time 108% consideration though. my money is that he has the better idea than i.
Rare Earth elements are not a fad. Although plentiful, they are very difficult to process to purity. Current supplies and expertise is Chinese, with the rest of the world dependent on their supplies. With so many green and military applications using rare earth metals, demand will outstrip supplies for years. I have nearly a 5% portfolio allocation to this group. James Dines came out with buys in 2009 and calls himself the original rare earth bug (along with the original gold, silver, and uranium bug!).
I’ve been trading silver futures (SI) as well as AGQ, SIL and SLW in my taxable accounts. In my IRA account, I can’t trade futures (it’s with Schwab). For example, I want to be able to buy US Dollar Index futures (DX) once the dollar bottoms.
I’m considering switching the IRA to Interactive Brokers so I can trade futures. Does anyone see a drawback to this? The potential problem I see is that IB might be more likely to go bankrupt or suffer some other calamity than Schwab (or any other bigger institution — although that may not be true.)
If anyone can offer any help on this I would reallly appreciate it
I have an old Keogh plan (I actually forgot about it – it was from my first employer after college) with about 10K in it that I want to cash out and possibly move into my silver trading account. I don’t fully understand all the tax and penalties involved.
My understanding is that if I cash out, I get a 20% penalty plus am taxed on the amt. as regular income. I can roll it all into a tradable IRA account for no penalty, but if I want to take it out of that account before I hit retirement age I am penalized 10% plus income tax.
Do I want to move this into an IRA at a company like TD Ameritrade and just trade my silver stocks within the account? Or do I want to move it to cash and trade like that? It seams like going the IRA route saves me 10%, but I feel like I’m missing something here.
Any help would be GREATLY appreciated.
I am currently unemployed (laid off a year ago – no available jobs in my field in my area) if that makes any difference.
Thanks for the feedback. Hanging in GPL with some stops just below 4to keep some profit. Started reading “24 Essential Lessons…” today. I like it! Did jump ahead to “climax top rules” 🙂 Clearly I have a lot to learn.
Thanks for the input. My biggest concern is that, if worse comes to worse and I can’t find a job sooner than later I might actually have to access the money in the account. But, you still think that the Roth IRA is the best solution right? I know I can pay my health insurance and some expenses our of a standard IRA tax free if I am unemployed.
Ugh. Its all so confusing. Don’t end up unemployed people. Its so stressful.
Are you guys very anti-TDAmeritrade on this board? I like that it comes with free TOS software and access, and I don’t use leverage, so margin fees don’t concern me.
No, you can trade futures in an IRA account. It’s possible.
Now, some brokerages won’t allow you. And if your 401k is run by your employer, they probably won’t allow you to trade futures.
But IB and other brokers will allow you to trade futures and options. When I first learned this, I was quite surprised. For whatever reasons I’ve stuck with Schwab for my IRAs, but now I’m thinking about switching. My primary motivation is to go long dx futures when the US dollar bottoms — going long UUP doesn’t seem like it will give enough oomph.
Jennifer, I have TDAmeritrade and I don’t have any major gripes. My only real problem is one that this blog helped me fix – their margin rates. I was able to show them more competative rates and they lowered mine to match.
Regarding umeployement, I hear you! Been there, done that, didn’t like it! Hopefully the gold bull will save you 🙂
Jennifer Poly will likely respond too, but you still should do the initial rollover, at least. If need be later, pull funds from the ira. You may qualify for special hardship conditions (can’t list all of them from memory) that would give you a tax free withdrawl or some type of loan. That would allow you to put the money back in later.
Thanks W. I don’t intend to touch the money, but it may come to that. I’d rather just let it sit in silver (minus the d wave) and grow for the next 3 years. Anyone need an architect? 🙂
You said..”Reading “24 Essential Lessons…” today. I like it! Did jump ahead to “climax top rules” 🙂 Clearly I have a lot to learn.
Me too ( a lot to learn) !– you jumped ahead to it, I keep going back to it…it makes sense ( I read it maybe 4 times ((the climax top)) w/charts for reference).
It imagine golds wont be exactly the same, but its good to know what to look for roughly. Glad you like the book,I really do to.I write pg #’s in the back cover for quick reference.
You CAN trade futures in an IRA. It depends on the broker. TOS will approve your IRA for trading futures if you already have futures trading experience. IB and Trade Station will let you trade futures in an IRA with them regardless of your futures trading experience.
I’m still a TOS user. I like their charting packages, both TOS charts and ,but these days I generally use only the TOS charts.
If you do any options spreads, their software support is excellent. One of the best out there for options trading.
They used to have flawless updates to the software, but since TD Ameritrade bought them out, their updates are sometimes buggy, but they usually fix the problems quickly.
TOS’s customer support has been great. I can usually get a quick answer via their live chat. Haven’t used the phones much for support. They also respond quickly to email.
I could get better commission rates at IB, but so far I’m just not motivated enough to make the switch.
I think you’re right about UUP not giving much leverage on a dollar run. However, what about deep in the money calls on UUP? (I will look into that myself over the next couple of days.)
Jennifer oops, wish you hadn’t said that. Note that investing in metals (among other things) in a traditional ira is considered a distribution by the irs. A silver keyed investment should be ok, but not just straight metals, etc. That barage of bs in layed out in irs publication 590. Sorry to add to your complicating factors, but thought you should know…
I’m assuming many people on this board are investing in metals through IRA’s right? Or have most of you that had IRA’s cashed out for the penalty and are investing from cash accounts?
For any Canadians out there: I have been in and out and in CVE:SDR, for almost two years. Could be a huge silver property/ no debt. Drill results any day? Went from .09 to .15 today. This could be the next momentum trade, similar to INM. If you have some fun money, dyodd. Suddenly, I am up 171%, and this could be only the beginning! ;D
I was thinking in the later stages of this bull run, That I would allocate some money towards Sprotts trusts. Do you think I would have an issue being this was an IRA account?
Haggerty Sorry, don’t know the structure of the Sprotts trusts, but it could be dicey if you mean a physical gold stash. I’m not sure, but it appears the rules for this are different for traditional vs Roth IRAs…
I’m not sure your best return will be had by playing the dollar long. If the dollar were to bounce from say 71 to 85 that would be roughly a 19% return.
If XLE were to just return to the 200 DMA that would constitute a 21% return.
Of course in a bear market assets go beyond the 200 DMA and eventually turn the 200 DMA down. So your return on a short of an overextended asset like XLE could be closer to 40-50%.
The IRS has made an exception for gold and silver ETFs held in an IRA. On August 10, 2007, the IRS privately ruled that shares of ETFs in the form of a trust that mirror the price of physical gold and silver do not constitute an acquisition of a collectible if they are acquired in an IRA. As a result, the IRS does not consider money invested in shares of gold and silver ETFs within an IRA to be a distribution subject to an early withdrawal penalty.(1)”
I hold all kinds of miners, AGQ and other ETFs, silver and gold futures, etc. in an IRA and Roth accounts. I also hold roughly the same in after tax accounts. It’s about a 50/50 split.
I feel if the dollar starts to nosedive in earnest then we will see some serious money pouring into gold. At the moment I feel we have seen nothing yet compared to what will happen if the dollar collapses. Then, I think the really serious money will be made by all of us here, potentially. It really is a big opportunity
Also, big money to be had too shorting the S&P when it finally collapses in early summer. I’ve read from several sources that the S&P could drop by 20%…we will see
Le Fou, I’m kinda sounding out smarter ppl to see what I should be in…Maybe I should get into more miners to reduce risk, instead of just two? I don’t know what to do
I believe that AG and EXK are the class of the field. AG’s been on a big tear recently, so it may be a bit over done. I prefer a more concentrated position because I think the best stocks go the farthest. These two and AGQ are enough for me.
Le Fou, I’m just afraid I’ll be left holding the bag if one of them declines heavily…less stress if your money is spread across, say, 10 securities than just 3
Gary, are you going to lighten up on any of your positions at the ‘top’ of this daily cycle (whenever that may be)? I’ve got some May options in EXK that have just tripled and it’s tempting to sell…Thx
I understand the security of diversity, but it seems to me that diversity just means dilution. Look up the securities in SIL. They’ve all been talked about here, but SIL is being dragged down by some weak performers. Now maybe SIL will come through in the end, but I’m willing to take on more risk to get better performance. My security is my big position in AGQ.
Stepped away from the computer. Yesterday, you asked about other newsletters of value, but I couldn’t answer you. I have Energy Advantage by Dr. Kent Moors (so far, so good) and Gary’s (which I am very happy with, even though still a new sub).
But, I found this site, http://www.stockgumshoe.com/reviews/ Where regular people rate the newsletters. Found this site to be very helpful for me.
Oh yes, most of my family lives in Mukilteo WA area what my Dad called God’s country. He retired a Navy submariner over 35 yeats ago and spent his last years, hunting fishing and trapping to his hearts content (the Mt St Helens area). He is now on perpetual patrol of the puget sound. You’re safe on left coast.
Wish I knew of that review site 3 years ago, so I wouldn’t be sweating the dips in my portfolio today! (actually, since I’ve signed on with Gary, my stress level has dropped considerably)
SD Jack, Cause you have a good guide through the Mine Fields is the way I look at it. Helps to know someone can tell you what the heck is going on on crazy days! I was just bragging on Gary tonight and I think will have a new SMT follower for the next wave. Showed him the sight so he can follow the action now.
Eamonn, Do you like cowboys also? I live in London half the year and find that Europeans love the US for the wide open spaces and Cowboy lore. Wild West I guess, cept SD Jack lives in the tamed West.
Thanks, was proud of my Dad. He had true grit. He was a mustanger in the silent service during the cold war (stories we don’t hear alot about). Engineer on the diesel subs and part of the first crew to man the nuclear class.
Eamonn, I really think if we just used what Gary uses, we will be fine. To go after individual miners you are taking pot shots at no telling which ones will go up and which ones will stall out or drop.
I’m interested to see whether the pattern of the past couple days holds or shifts. Will Silver open higher then back fill and consolidate or charge right through 40.00.
The past couple days have been very positive in my view. This bull has been very consistent in one regard. It behaves in a manner that insures as few participants as possible given the extremely bullish price action over time.
SD Jack, we’re you watching when we dropped to the low cycle and Gary was within a nickel of the low? It was amazing! After that I was sold on his abilities. No worries now. It’s just amazing how his plans come together!
Cannot remember …at ease, Too many rivulets of information passing thru my mind. I came on board only 2 weeks ago, and was following him for only a couple weeks before that. I know you are a recent sub too, so when was that event?
SD Jack, It was mid March. Talk about a gut wrenching ride down. But he called the bottom within in a nickel, so when you can do that, you know he knows what he is doing. It was a relief to hit it and it stopped and went back up.
Gary had to keep folks calm and not bail out and hang on for the turn back up. It was a rough ride. 🙂 So if that is any taste of what a D wave begins to feel like, you want out once that starts!
I am just amazed we have found someone like Gary. I only started in February but I can see where folks have their own way of doing things, but if they would just follow his lead, it would be easier on them to just sit back and enjoy the scenery and learn along the way all the bumps and grooves of this bull run. I know I kept hanging on to what I knew and was comfortable with, but then realized that I needed to get more heavy in Silver for the best returns and finally jumped in fully.
I hear you, I was overleveraged in options, so cut back to 2x the gold and silver and hung onto just the June 25 Calls. But don’t want to miss this big chance to get set up for the rest of the bull run.
My clear fault is that I am way too heavily weighted in options, but like you, will use those gains to solidify myself for the future push. I am aggressive in nature, so I can handle the portfolio as it stands.
And I have confidence in the Bull, in Gary, in my own positions now, and will not squander this opportunity.
Just have to get over the hump (prior losses) and move onto the next wave of profits.
You know, I think Gary is right on target with the way the PM market is moving. He said it might “grind higher” and it sure looks that way from the action taking place.
Yep, I hear you, I am still recovering losses from 2008. But this will definately close that gap. I had to consolidate as I am having to handle 4 different accounts and it was driving me nuts to have so much diversification in 4 different accounts. So once options were making big $ sold them and put funds in AGQ. I had to focus on the sell date and see what I needed to do to simplify things especially since I will be traveling for the next 6 weeks. So can only handle so many trigger adjustments on stop losses and needed to reduce the number of sell buttons to push. 🙂
I hear you on that Daniele. SLW and 30 45 50 June calls is my biggest holding by far. I would love to see SLW rally really big. I may sell some calls today. 40 is a nice round number to pause at and head into the cycle low but we’ll see how the day turns out.
last time brent oil was at these levels, we were a month away from cracking the economy. should we be scared now? just seems to soon to get at these levels.
wav, from a breeder of birds (parrots,owls etc).There are just two of it in italy.Much more in germany ed austria..Wow, silver at 40,24 very very good….
who said “sit tight when u’re right” is easy!! It feels so tempting to take profits at this level. Should I or shouldn’t I? Then again, we all got here ‘old turkey’.
As 40 just got smoked I’m starting to think about the c wave top. Think originally Gary had it pencilled in for 43-50.
How fluid is that projection, do we just sit tight old turkey and wait for exhaustive candles, no matter how above the 200 DMA we get, 55 dollars, 60 dollars etc
personally i still have faith in the Cwave. we still haven’t seen any blow off tops. I’m looking to see gold nearing the 1640 area (possible top according to John). Then i’ll start to feel goosebumps. Unless of course Gary’s christal ball predicts otherwise.
Thanks for the link to your interview Gary. Missed the earlier one and they’re a good listen. It’s a nice format to hear you expand on your views in a concentrated dose.
… it is a pretty sight …. been waiting a lot of years for this. We cut through 40 like butter but what do y’all think about us now being above the BB ?
Bollinger bands won’t get me out of this trade. They’re constantly moving targets.
We’ll have a pullback sooner or later, but the bigger money is made riding through these and then to higher prices. We can’t lose a good position just to sidestep a little pain.
Good luck PM bulls, looks like we might get a nice finish to the week.
I will be away this morning, but I want to go on record and say
GPL…
-If it closes over $4.27 today, I think it is a strong buy and will add to my current position.
(This stock has been ‘hammered’ on this blog as “no good anymore, stupid management” ,etc.) But It could be one of the best charts I’ve seen ,if it closes above $4.27. I still think it will run…(if not this daily cycle,most likely the next)unless this chart changes a LOT.
*If it closes DOWN today, it retestes $3.50 ,if it closes above $4.27…I say it goes to about $7 by the end of this c-wave. (almost double?? Big words Alex)!
Off the top of my head I don’t remember what the longest count is. I doubt this one will run long. Sentiment is quickly becoming euphoric here.
My best guess is we have 2-4 more days before the cycle top then one more scary correction to knock off as many riders as possible before the final blast off.
And I know that your reports will do the rest (if that last shake out is really strong ,everyone will wonder if we missed the top and the D-wave started. you can talk people back off the ledge). 🙂
…I am just keeping an eye on it. Its really a great chart if you look at it 0bjectively (as though you never owned it when it went down from $5 to $4). Look on a 23 month /wkly…I’d buy if it turned around. It just may not be ready yet:)
We’ll probably go right to the 72 level on the dollar and then get a dead cat bounce off of that. At the same time get a correction in our miners for a couple of weeks, then we make a new 3 year low on the dollar and ride these miners to the moon. Sounds nice.
Wow, what a morning. Would not be surprised if this is the silver high overnight, for our daily cycle.
I am adding to my AEM May calls, and GOLD May calls this morning, and have covered my May SLV 36 and 39 with April 40’s sold. The MM’s will need to bleed some open interest next week on those April calls and will short those stocks.
Core miners are still locked n the vault though.
Have a great day all, i am leaving soon after market open to my solar project if the weather cooperates.
Indeed, today’s move is nice to experience, but looking at th banter of new subs confidence in their leveraged positions, and I suspect there is a cleanse coming.
Hey guys, when you start feeling like this bull can’t go anywhere but up, its time to strap in b/c the gold bull isn’t likely to make your ride smooth and easy.
We are coming due for the daily cycle correction. If you’re leveraged that means a double digit percentage drawdown.
Sensing the overconfidence has me wanting to lock in a few percent of profits. I likely won’t, but the trigger finger gets itchy when folks are boasting about how easy it is, and how right they are.
With that said, the dollar is having a significant break below the March low. THat brings the low of 09 into play at 74.23. A bounce there would be a good place for the daily cycle low in gold to begin, and scare the shit out of easy riders’ accounts.
Not sure what you mean by so soon, but we’re in the timing band for a top. That just means it would be a shocker!
Yesterday I posted my view (which counts little) that is what Gary posted above. I thought we get a strong day today and possibly one more and then on Monday or Tuesday we might get one of those blow-off cycle tops where it reverses intra-day.
H, I doubt the dollar goes to 72 on this cycle. More likely would be a slight break of the 09 low and another dead cat bounce.
The three year cycle low will probably just marginally break the 08 low. Just enough to suck in all the technical traders shorting into the break. Then we get a strong reversal as smart money starts piling into the dollar in preparation for the next deflationary period.
Haggerty, I manage my Dad’s retirement accts, and from my experience, conservatism is best. Why? Losing your Dad’s money will feel worse than losing your own. I would go smaller than you think you should, especially near the top of a cycle. If I think I should put 25% to work, then I put 12% to work. i add with small increments. I calculate my stops and potential losses, and what I would be willing to lose and work from there.
IMO a smidge here, a smidge more when you think the cycle bottom is near, and more at a break out from this cycle’s top. Then, selling near the top of the C-wave (hopefully), and taking advantage of the D-Wave by being short assets that go down during a dollar rise.
This is not the last oppty to make money. Greed is dangerous when playing with your parent’s retirement money. Of course, i’m making some assumptions here re: risk tolerance etc…
A lot of hedgies buy dips and sell rips. Selling a strong open is common. The day is only beinning to be defined. But, if you’re hanging on these little moves intraday, you will miss the big picture.
Just curious from thos of us who have been around here for awhile, how about giving some perspective to new subs…. -When was your first purchase of Silver? Gold? -How much have you sold along the way? -Would you be well of to have just ridden it out?
My fisrt Silver was at 12.50. Gold at 720ish. If I had not sold a dime, and only added on dips, I would have a lot more now than I do!!
The five minute charts are death to your riches. Play the greater intermediate cycles, and watch your accounts grow. Buy when it hurts to pull the trigger, and sell the same way.
Interesting action/reaction at the open: $ continues to make lower lows on the 5 minute chart while gold and silver are off the pre-open highs. Any tea leaves to be read here?
I want to sell my DGP and SLV and roll it into AGQ and SIL to get a little more juice. Anyone have any words of wisdom about timing such a move? Or am I overthinking this too much?
Sophia, The market is locked in a volatility coil. The assumption is that it will break down as earnings season starts.
Everyone will freak out and sell and then the market should quickly reverse and enter a very powerful and sustained rally throughout the rest of the earnings season.
I think DGP is a fine choice. A switch might work out for you, but I’m always careful to dump a solid holding to chase something that has had a very good run.
It’s up to the individual, but it’s not a move I would be comfortable making. One can always exchange a partial position and see how it goes?
i have seen a few people cite Casey Research as a source, its been alleged that they are a pump and dump organization. I can provide links, but , check for yourselves
I would look for a large gap up sometime early next week on the open. Preferably above $1500. That would convince all the technical traders to pile in and would almost certainly be the top of this daily cycle.
Sell into that gap and then wait for the daily cycle low before buying back.
Thanks SB. My thinking was that Gold and Silver have been moving in relative lockstep lately, with AGQ moving more dramatically (to the upside AND the downside). I wouldn’t get out of DGP outright if I wasn’t rolling it into Silver to take advantage of the next daily cycle. I know both should benefit, but it appears that Silver has been trumping gold during this run as Gary suggested.
fusby, Watching a good fight is a lot different than stepping in the middle of it!
I came on here in early 09. Bought my first miners around April of 09. Biggest mistakes I made was selling anything from that buy point.
IMHO the best thing anybody could do at the bottom of the coming D Wave is load up on a smorgasbord of miners and shut down the computer until 2014-15. You would likely come back and realize you were wealthy beyond what you could have imagined.
Thanks Gary. I was thinking something along those lines. I was just concerned about trying to time exits and entries. Regardless, I know I won’t catch the tops and bottoms, but I didn’t want it keep running without a pullback to get back in. I know it may or may not happen, but that’s what I’m thinking about doing at this point.
I don’t think anyone can make a realistic, knowledgeable price target, resistance and support zones mid term for silver here, using TA.
In many ways, I feel that the events from 1980 (Hunt spike) have to be largely ignored from a charting perspective because of the rules and the rule changes. THey can be taken into consideration from the price sensitivity perspective on supply.demand, though.
THis current parabolic move we are still in the middle of is many magnitudes more powerful than 1980. We have built a much stronger foundation. One could argue that the move from $22 to $50 in 1980 was all “froth.”
One thing is for sure from my perspective. We need to go as high as possible on this move. Of course, it risks a larger fall short-term but gives us much more firepower longer term for a possible climb even higher. Best case scenario (unlikely to happen quickly) is we make a move so high, the 1980 “spike” just looks like a blip.
Hot Rod, Don’t fool yourself. If silver can hit $50 there will be an avalanche of supply hit the market.
Articles like this are just setting people up to get caught at the top.
If silver hits $50 I will sell everything and not look back until the D-wave has run it’s course.
The problem with silver is that it is a very thin market. If you get caught on the down side, even by one day, silver could drop from $50 to the low $40’s.
One has to be prepared to get out early and not regret missing the last few percentage points because the consequences of getting caught can be extreme.
Brian, Agreed!! THat’s my intention for the next ABC Cycle in Gold. I’ll be buying a combo of Silver,a dn miners. And will use AGQ as a trading vehicle around intermediate cycles.
I look at the trades I made…buying SLV at 13.47 selling at 15.28 etc….Makes me chuckle….and cry. lol
Another silly question but it has been haunting me for quite some time. I read a paper calling for a stock market crash “a la 1987” very soon…Do you think that it is possible even with what happened already in March and also what happened last year in May? If that was the case, I guess that we would see a massive rally on Gold
Looking at the chart you posted. From a TA perspective. As a rough rule of thumb for targets you can use the repeating ranges. If you look at the move up from the ’08 lows, silver has an approximate $10 repeating range (a little bigger than 10).
This has repeated 3 times, $10 to $20 then correction, $20 to $30 then correction, $30 to $40 now. If the pattern repeats we can look for a small correction here then another 10 up to $50. The parabolic blow offs can extend a little further in my experience with spec miners but it’s safe to stick to the range.
SB, NUGT is performing very well, to the upside at least. Up 4.11% versus 2.95% for AGQ. Volume is awfully light. Have you had any problems getting in or out?
Volume on NUGT is enough to get in and out whenever you want. Lower volumes usually mean the spread is wider. Right now the spread is 2 cents! Considering that the spread on a higher volume stock or etf is usually 1 cent, I would say the low volume on NUGT is not a problem at all. 🙂
Thanks. Interesting. You are pretty convinced that $50 is the top of this C Wave.
I am 100% on board about not missing the last few percentage points.
But, how can you tell that you are not missing 10%+?
So, if silver (hypothetically) ends up topping at $54.50, this would leave almost 20% on the table in AGQ (selling at $50).
Also, let’s say (hypothetically) that silver gets to $50 early to mid way in the daily cycle – would it be pertinent to put like a 5% trim trailing stop loss instead?
Lastly, what if (crazy to even comprehend, I know) silver gets close to $50 on this current daily cycle?
My guess is that you would re-evaluate constantly and have a leg through the exit door.
Getting in, no problem at 2,000 share orders or less each time I buy, and I have done this several times. I haven’t sold any as yet, so can’t comment.
It’s a new etf, so naturally the volume is low. It also keeps the manager and market makers honest, reflecting the stated 2x XAU as they want to garner more interest. If the etf had been around for years with no volume, then I might shy away, but for now this is to be expected.
The only consideration I’m giving volume is in my order sizes. If you wanted to get to 10K shares, do it in 2000 or less orders to not spook the other players.
Lastly, low volume here has nothing at all to do with non-confirmation. Unless you’re investing billions and the vehicle cannot accomodate that size, it’ll be fine for our purposes.
Besides, increasing interest is likely to be on the buy side. So do I want to wait until everybody has already bought to get mine, just so I can say it has volume? 🙂
I’m going to attempt to trade the final day of the C-Wave top even if it eclipses $50 or falls short.
I would personally expect the final day to be a monster, meaning it being up 5, 6 or even 7% before collapsing. We get a final day like that within the cycle timing band, I’m out.
SB, understood and agreed. I see it has options now, also. The spreads aren’t horrible, despite the nearly non-existent volume and very low OI. I won’t be playing them, however. I’ll stick with SLW, SLV, and a few of the other highly liquid issues.
Sophia, If you’ve been in this business for any length of time you know that there is always someone calling for a crash. How many have we had in the last 110 years? 3.
The next bear market won’t be a crash. The credit markets aren’t going to implode twice.
The next bear will be a grinding affair as the economy slowly sinks back into the next recession.
It will look pretty much the same as the 00-02 bear market.
Sandy, re: AQG, no doubt. But, it’s a little hard to watch those calls go up 10% today. But you know what they say about the complaint of the richest trader on wall street (he always took his profits too early).
I have to say that I am pretty jealous of Gary’s expertise: thanks to that, you can plan your vacation 6 months ahead as you KNOW that in June, we will be in the middle of the D-wave and you will be eating Swiss Fondue in the Alps!! What a nice life!!! 🙂
From Kevin Depew at Minyanville 4/8/11: Silver has reached its Demark-wave 5 target at 39.84 – as I shared earlier this week, lots of SELL signals showing up on all time frames in DeMark land – just don’t be greedy! DXY daily – recorded a deferred Sequential 13 buy signal this week, but downside target of 74.90 still needs to be reached – pretty close now. Signal good for 12 trading days. Overlapping DAILY buy setup which needs a lower low compared to today on Monday or Tuesday. Look for some dollar strength in the next couple of weeks. DXY MONTHLY – perfected buy setup Bar 8, Bar 9 records in May, so June – September should be a pretty good bounce in the dollar. Sequential 13 is still in deferral, needing my old friend 72.50 to record. Depew’s bottom line: We are very near a major low for the dollar!
with you on that Poly… just closed my SLV and SIL Aprils a short while ago… even if Monday we have the gap up Gary mentions I don’t wanna be trapped in the squeeze down…
The bid price on the AGQ 200 April calls is so far in the money that it already yields almost $2 loss on each share if sold. AGQ is bid at $56.10 as I type and AGQ is bid 258.25.
I’ll offer these at fair price when I sell them and leave the offer for a minute. If it’s not accepted, I’ll have to short the common and exercise the options.
I’ll have to do this piecemeal as AGQ is expensive, and I’ll exceed my margin limits if I short it all at once.
But giving the market maker $225 per contract is not my idea of a good trade.
Kev, How much money or profit must you lose before you figure out that you can’t time this move with technical indicators.
We still have one more gigantic parabolic move ahead of us. Does one really want to miss that because they continue to follow a technical indicator that clearly doesn’t work in this asset?
Hey Gary, Just got back from 4 days in Vegas, went to Red Rock, last time we went thee was in 2003. Those houses sure have crept close to the edge of the park!
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I’m wondering what the reaction in the dollar will be to a 25 basis point hike. I think that is already priced in.
What may not be priced in is a very hawkish statement following the rate hike or a 50 basis point rate hike (unlikely but possible especially with the German numbers this week).
Will this lead to a dollar decline and s top in the current cycle or will it cause a correction perhaps early and have a shortened daily cycle with the next one being the long daily cycle that includes a parabolic move.
What do other people think on these points and on what the ECB will do in the morning?
the link points to gmail, not the interview.
Fixed
W,RYAN, and AT EASE
I replied to you 3 on the last post,in case you missed it.
hmm
Another great interview and game plan for this bull market. Looking forward to witnessing this play out.
Fergie,
You’re up late tonight or are you still in Europe and it’s really early?
I told you I was back in the States. Jet lagged. . .YES!!!
I guess that’s the price you pay for running all over the world 🙂
Where’s the next adventure going to be? Well other than Zermatt in June.
TZ, I found you arguments interesting, but also find some faults.
1. Your comparison of GDX:GLD. Few if any here invest in large cap miners. It has been well publicized of the hedge funds going long gold and shorting lg cap miners. Obviously you need to be using GDXJ for your comparison which shows a completely different picture.
2. You spoke of Sept being the peak in SLW:SLV, but it is very clearly in Dec. So it has been just for this cycle to date. Quite frankly SLW is turning or has already turned into a lg cap also. You are like a statistician here using what will make your point.
3. Most folks here following Gary are already 65% 2x SLV.
4. Your implication about options is probably mostly correct, but anybody buying at the intermediate bottoms as I did (Jay, Poly, and a few others) is currently up hundreds of percent now and may well outperform your 7x with little risk.
5. Few here will do futures for several reasons. Risk is most obvious. Account size is second. From reading you and about your tight stop, I reason your account isn’t large because these positions cause you long periods of sleep deprivation until you can breathe. Most folks do not care to live like that even for money. A well financed trader would place a trade with confidence, and a workable stop, and not live like that.
5. You said “Why not wait until stocks are CLEARLY outperforming metal on a ongoing and continuous basis? So far that is not the case and single days or a few weeks don’t qualify.”
Since the 08 bottom, your chart shows clear evidence that the trend line (SLW:SLV) did not break until January. You act like this has been going on forever. 12 weeks to be exact.
I don’t mind you stating your case, but wouldn’t it have saved a lot of typing and BS to have brought that 3 year chart up and said hey folks, we have a trend line break here. Clear and continual evidence indeed.
Actually there’s a German Gold Conference going on in Munich on April 29th, which I may attend depending on this final wave. I’ll be sticking around to watch the fireworks.
Alex,
Thanks for the reassurance with SLW. I trade it on the Canadian side slw.to, my disappoint has been amplified since the CAD/USD has been so strong. Given the exchange, slw.to hasn’t even broken the 52 week high yet.
Ryan,
I too have a decent portion of my funds in SLW.TO – I believe that we can sleep well at night and be happy with its performance.
I bought in at 31.36, very close the the intermediate low and am up 40% in 9 weeks. Sure, others are up much more than that, but they are much more sophisticated than I am and have taken on much more risk.
Does anyone even remember Jan. 29th and the week following? We were all unsure if it was a fake-out or the real thing – a lot of people here were nervous. If things went south I would have lost quite a bit less – Risk/reward.
I am a schmuck who has a 40% return on his investment in 9 weeks. SLW ain’t that bad, Ryan
Rob L,
I wish I had that great of an entry. Unfortunately for me, it took me awhile to fully buy into Gary’s analysis so I’ve been buying all the way up. I even added to my slw.to last week. But you’re right even with my late entries, it’s not too shaby. However, a couple of big out performance days vs the metal would have me grinning like the joker.
Ryan,
Just wait until we are at the C-wave top before getting too discouraged. It’s just a guess, but I am expecting SLW to be at $60. Again, just a guess but judge its performance at the C-wave top.
When the A-wave begins, you could invest in HZU.to (it is the Canadian equivalent to AGQ). I own a few shares in that too and will probably have most of my $$$ in that instead of SLW when that A-wave is upon us.
I’m a newbie here too. Live and learn.
Rob L,
Thanks for the info I appreciate it. I’m currently over weighted in HZU/AGQ and the rest is in SLW.TO and some in SIL. So far HZU has definitely out performed but that’s expected since it’s a 2X leveraged fund. I know my risk tolerance has been tried a couple of times when we had those -10% days. I’m fully loaded now so nothing to do except just sit on my hands.
test
1.25% which is what the market expected.
hoped to get at least 1.5
at first sight it seems to be enough yo convince the market though
BRIAN,
A fair number of points, comments, and rebuttals to my assertions.
I would have counter observations and further commentary on much of what you have said, but I’m pretty confident the overall concept is out there and I have given my supporting data as I see it.
Many of our discussions revolve around how people believe charts should be read. What time frames to use data? How far back in history is relevant? Is use of *any* history relevant (some say no)?
I will let darwin take over from here for better or worse for all involved. There is only one reality (vs multiple opinions) and to the extent that any of us correctly interpret and resolve the issue I have raised – that person will (over) profit handsomely.
Perhaps it won’t be me and my arguments are wrong.
It wouldn’t be the first time.
I will continue to monitor and adapt as I suggest everybody else do as well. I’m pretty sure we will all do well. I’m only trying to tweak that.
Another great interview, Gary.
Looking forward to watching the next 4-5 weeks unfold.
I will mention an expectation from earlier in the week again.
I’m not sure how today will work out for metals – likely flat or up, but who knows.
However for friday I expect them to close strongly at the highs (very possibly higher than we already have).
Contrarily, the guys in charge would like to drive us back down below the breakout in gold and try to paint a weekly ‘reversal spike’ in gold (and hurt silver).
That will be their game plan. Let’s see who wins.
Thanks Alex, I answered you on other link also. Hmmm, it appears everytime there is a new link (post) from Gary, we have to check the box on that new post to follow emails on gmail account. (Hence folks using TEST). 🙂
If anyone out there is holding may calls let me know when you guys are going to roll the over.
TIA
hi alex
my alex pack since purchase(I stress only pin money so only playing here)
exk + 60%
axu + 0.5%
auy -0.8%
pzg – 1%
goro -3.5
what’s your update on these babies
goog luck everyone lol
BRIAN
I also found a huge flaw in your discussion. You numbered your arguments 1,2,3,4,5,5
🙂
Actually, you did ,but I’m just kidding-you did your homework and due diligence on that one…nice work.
ALEX
Yeah, got your response. Ryan is pointing out the ultimate methods, especially for a corporate solution. However, I know with my travels attempting to run a VPN through my home computer would be problimatic/frustrating. The third party VPN is way less hassel and does all I’m really needing. Haven’t been to China lately, could be that they are blocking commercial VPN’s by now..??..
Anyway personal protection serves not only you, but those you contact. (where have you heard that before).
Side note: I’ve noticed way more spam on one of my email address since that online company got hacked and addresses for millions have been outed from many online retailers. One of them must have been Lowes or Home Depot…never seen so many offers to remodel…
Sold my GDXJ may calls this morning to free up some cash. Would like to roll it into SIL and AGQ if I can get a pullback at the end of this daily cycle. Am I just being greedy?
Haggerty,
You would want to roll them when you think this daily cycle has topped.
OK BOYS and Girls,
This may be the GPL lift off I’ve been looking for. I sold half my position early march, May buy today, will post if I do 🙂
It’s starting to appear that the top pickers got it wrong again yesterday.
It’s so much simpler if one just follows the plan.
W
I havent rec’d the spam, but I got 5 companies telling me their email system got hacked and not to open spam.
FATBOY!
1)I like the weightgain in the picture 🙂
2) I dont think I ever said I like AUY. I bought that yrs ago and made money, but it hasnt had a very decent set-up lately.ACTUALLY , I just checked it…looks like it wants to break out SOON. Good volume as it approaches the prior high! Looks good
3) I love EXK,SVM,AXU,AG…I am looking at buying GPL when/if it starts moving again ( I would have to sell something to get it)
4) I think you’re gonna gain more weight…better buy new cloths
Dear All,
I have 10 SLV calls for April, strike 38, bought at 0.52. I do not intend to buy the shares. Is it the right time to sell them? TIA
Very true Gary… Larry is one of them. He’s admitting it. 🙂
http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/critical-developments-in-the-markets-11716
CMT, No, I go all in at the next cycle low. We then have to wait 3 more years for this.
TZ, The main thing I found fascinating about your work was the 3 year SLW:SLV chart. You should re-post that 1 chart and everybody should have it near and dear.
I think SLW may change character when it breaks above 46, BUT if it just goes up and kisses the bottom of that ratio trend line and falls away, I will use that as one tool concerning an exit of that position.
Your commentary is always appreciated BTW.
Alex,
What are you seeing in GPL that you like?
I’m looking at the daily going back 3 months and not seeing anything exciting.
I posted about XG going on the AMEX awhile back from the Pink/Canada only. It is now rising on heavy volume. People seem to like these stocks that come over to the US.
Gary,
Great interview.
At the upcoming cycle low do you expect price to drop below current? That is, should one wait for a correction or just add now?
cheers alex
I may well shuffle the pieces if you do go for gpl
glad you like the new me…I’ll weigh a ton before the end of this if all I do is work and watch the metals….
POLY
I have GPL on the watch list because
1) GREAT flag pattern on a 1 yr wkly (and everyone hates it now 🙂
2) Its still a good company-had a HUGR run up…consolidation.
On a 5 or 10 day /15 minute chart…I see a downtrend .
Yesterday I thought the open was ‘capitulation sell-off’, when everyone throws in the towel and sells (high volume) Everyone on this blog hates this one now too.
I could almost hear people saying, “If it goes below $4..I’m out!” It did.
3) It bounced away from the capitulation low and retested it at the close yesterday on lighter volume. That is often the last sellers bailing out on the bounce.
4) So today I want it to rise off that bottom with good volume (it is so far), and break that down trend line( it hasnt yet).
Oddly enough, in my whole portfolio…GPL is my biggest % gainer.
Thats a lot of work to some, micromanaging a stock, but I like it.
Fortuna is also finally joining the miners party. Could be a triangle breakout soon.
Brian,
Great post yesterday evening. Very thorough.
Thanks Alex, I agree on the company.
Beating that that March 24th 8.8m volume down day would be a big sign too?
TZ,
Appreciate your comments re what’s likely to happen today and tomorrow. We do want a nice looking weekly candle, so let’s hope for a close tomorrow near the high of the week.
POLY
Yes, its not there quite yet, but I do still own it anyways,so if I’m going to add, I would rather make sure that it’s ready to move up and miss a little of the initial move,rather than jump in here and see it testing that low yesterday again…or lower.
Brian
I never saw XG. Thx,nice chart (a bit light on volume, but so was MVG and that hasnt stopped that one)!
Haggerty,
I did a kinda/sorta lottery thing on some GLD May calls at the money. My timing sucked, they were underwater for a while, but now green. These are the only May calls I have.
I have a limit sell order on half of them when GLD reaches approx 147, a target I believe is possible to be reached as this daily cycle tops.
I plan to add June or July calls at what I hope will be near the bottom of the upcoming daily cycle low. I’ll probably go with deep in the money for those, but maybe try a small lottery again.
(As I was typing this, I’m starting think maybe I should change the limit order to sell ALL of them during this daily cycle.)
Thanks Alex.
I will post this one more time from months ago for new people:
img808.imageshack.us/img808/4606/hui2cef.gif
It is a long term (entire bull mkt) chart of the $hui against CEF (which is simply half gold and half silver).
Nothing has changed in the last few months. It has actually gotten worse.
Clearly the $hui (same as GDX) has been a crap investment since 2004.
Yes, there are wiggles on the chart as it moves lower, but why try to trade them? You will have as much success as trading almost anything else.
If you want to argue “but I can pick better stocks”, fine. Please go ahead and I wish you my best. But that is it’s own task with it’s own pitfalls.
When stocks clearly turn around, break that trend and start to perform (as the masses start coming in this market) I will consider stocks over straight metal.
Alex, XG was a carve out from XRA. I got the shares for free, so I just kept it. Should have been adding.
TZ,
The thing is, I think that most of us (Gary included) are expecting the expected outperformance of the miners to happen pretty much immediately (ie, in the next 4-5 weeks) because if Gary is right, that’s when this C-wave will hit its blow-off euphoric top.
Gary thinks that we won’t see another C wave for about 3 years.
That said, the vast majority of my capital is still in AGQ. : )
Just Bought SHZ @ $5.02
Sideways consolidation,or possible flag pattern. Last 2 days DOWN had 1 million and 800,000.
Today already has 1.8 million at 11:11 a.m. Appears buyers are coming back in..looks to be breaking out to continue upward path.
traderlady, thanks. I’m only about 80% invested and am dying to spend the rest – usually a bad sign. My plan is to sit on the cash until I see a pull back, but greed is making me worry I’ll miss it.
Looks like the coil is starting to break to the downside.
CATBIRD,
>The thing is, I think that most of us (Gary included) are expecting the expected outperformance of the miners to happen pretty much immediately (ie, in the next 4-5 weeks) because if Gary is right, that’s when this C-wave will hit its blow-off euphoric top.
You have the words “…I THINK that most…are expecting”.
Can I plainly and directly ask if you have LOOKED at what ACTUALLY happened for all previous C blowoffs?
I have.
Fortuna looks like it is going to go ahead and break out.
Thanks Gary
CMT, Not hard to be greedy under a government that rewards debtors and
takes away the interest rates for savers. What is wrong with this. Oh,
and there is no inflation so Soc sec gives no raises. Enough! 🙂
REE stocks are showing strength/bull flags, including MCP, REE, and AVL (very close). Canadian listed QRM and TSM are trailing and may be good plays here, especially if volume picks up on a breakout of the consolidation. Disclaimer: I bought most of these issues in late ’09, selling enough along the way to pay for the initial costs.
TZ, Given your charts, why are you bothering with futures. You could just kick back with your CEF and let the bull do it’s work.
Of course your answer is just like everybody’s. We are all seeking alpha. Lots of different ways to do it, but we all seek it.
Alex, SHZ was double in Jan.WOW! I hope you rode it last time:)
This is just play money so I will push it out to June or July depending on what these stocks offer.
On another note,I am trying to convince family members to get in on this before it’s too late.(end of Cwave). It’s just you feel nervous when your dealing with others money. Also when that money is larger than yours.
The simple fact is that since the beginning of the bull, miners have massively outperformed the metals, as would be expected.
In 08 the market crash irrationally sold miners to such levels that it has taken quite a while to recover from it. Even now they are still too cheap.
Certainly one can outperform by buying an ultrafund like AGQ. But over the long haul you will not outperform with gold and probably not with silver.
Sometimes at C-wave tops the miners will start to sniff out a top and diverge, sometimes not.
At the bull market top we will see any and every crap little company with the name gold or silver in it going up 100% a month.
7.4 earthquake off the Japanese coast and tsunami alert.
>TZ, Given your charts, why are you bothering with futures. You could just kick back with your CEF and let the bull do it’s work.
Actually there are very specific answers besides just ‘seeking alpha’;
1) I can’t leverage CEF beyond 2x.
2) It has the highest tax rate compared to the advantaged futures.
3) It has overnight gap risk whereas the futures are 24hrs.
4) It also has gap risk whenever they buy more bullion (although they dont’ dilute the stock).
5) It would be difficult to place a stop on CEF with a large position. You’d hit and blow out the bid ask since the volume isn’t there.
6) It is a PFIC which has another tax issue.
So it isn’t a simple response about ‘alpha’. There are concrete reasons and I know what they are.
But for the purposes of simply illustrating a point of stocks vs. ‘metal’ over a decade, it works fine.
I am considering selling everything in the next 2-9 days, and then converting to a Roth IRA. If the daily cycle low usually dips to the 10 day moving average, do you think I should wait a few days for a daily cycle low to buy my shares back?
Gary
Any concern over government shutdown?
MarkMarin
Riding FREE shares, cant beat that alone, but riding these little rocket ships…Priceless 🙂
and I was watching REE too, great volume again
Traderlady
I got in a tad late & jumped out a little early last time (cup and Handle formed Oct to Dec, got in on the breakout near $5+).
It had a huge volume spike and I bailed out at the top area a bit early. I think the $9 area ( Only 2 days later!..I was afraid ..lol)and it went back up to almost $11. Still was very happy though. This one moves fast, not for the jittery.
>The simple fact is that since the beginning of the bull, miners have massively outperformed the metals, as would be expected.
WOW.
OK, I’m done with the topic.
H,
It’s not going to change the gold or dollar cycle if that’s what you are asking.
DMA50/200, Ask your broker if you can just move your shares from one account to another. If it is the same broker, you should have to sell and buy back, just move shares.
There seems to be good support at 1455 for now. A push to 1470+ tomorrow would be nice.
I was inspired by Garys performance over the weekend so i went to the gym and tried the clean and jerk. 61kg on my second attempt but now my back has been stiff for the past 2 days.
Thanks, at ease. I can just wait until we sell in advance of the d-wave to have them withhold the taxes.
Gary said
“…At the bull market top we will see any and every crap little company with the name gold or silver in it going up 100% a month.”
So true…I remember a company (pennystock) that had ‘Gold’ in its name , but was NOT a miner or explorer…and it took off with the c-wave top and crashed after. No joke. It was Goldstone or Goldenstone , or something.
reminded me of the dot.com bust when people threw a dart at an internet dot.com name and bought it.
DailyMovingAvg50/200
Don’t know the specifics of your planned conversion. If it is, say, a traditional ira to a roth, you may not need to sell to move the assets (especially if both accounts are with the same firm). Also, that sort of xfer can be very quick…like one day, depending on how the trustee works conversions.
Since the 08 bottom the majors have hugely outperformed gold and matched the return in silver.
Silver miners have crushed gold and silver both.
Most juniors have also far surpassed the returns in both gold and silver since that bottom.
One can always data mine a specific point of time and say see this is how it is. I often hear people quote the under performance of gold from the 1980 top compared to stocks as an example.
Over the long haul one will make a lot more money in the mining stocks than they will in the metal. Sure there will be times when they will under perform and if you know how to spot those periods of under performance ahead of time then invest in the metals during those periods and switch back when it’s the miners turn to shine.
I dare say no one will be able to do this successfully throughout the bull so why not just allocate capital to both.
Or if you are comfortable with the added risk you can play the ultra funds. Those will consistently outperform both the metal and miners as long as you exit at tops and don’t ride them down into D-waves.
re post:
Gary,
Great interview.
At the upcoming cycle low do you expect price to drop below current? That is, should one wait for a correction or just add now?
Gary
I have the same question as new york. If I get some family to jump in here should they do it ASAP or should I wait for Daily cycle low?
If I had a crystal ball I could answer that question…unfortunately I don’t.
DailyMovingAvg50/200
WHOA! Again don’t know the specifics of what you are planning, but you may not need to have any tax withheld (and especially not from the retiement assets). I have always paid any tax due from non-retirement assets as either estimated or at regular tax time. I understand if your situation doesn’t allow that, but drawing the taxes out of the Roth proceeds is a serious hit. Don’t take it without reason.
Get some now and save some powder to add when we get the daily cycle correction.
W,better to pay the taxes now than after the account grows to $10 billion?!@#$
Im thinking of playing miners in the A wave and doing some shopping… did some comparing on the ETFs, and NUGT really doesnt impress when compared to GDX, or GDXJ…its piddly volume is weak too.
Is there a 3X silver ETF? (AGQ is a 2X)
Please do not talk about futures and risk.
If something happens in the market I think we all are fried.
However, I do not think it will happen and I try to think positive.
An expected interest rate hike by the ECB and what we see today is just a short break before the euro continues to rise and the dollar down.
Feels really good actually! 🙂
Nice weather also..
It is almost time for the first barbecue this year..
The post was for Brian.
w, ok whoa!!! I will consider converting about 50% of my IRA to Roth during the pause for the d-wave. Need to convert the portion that I will not be redeming in next 5 years only.
If something happens in the market, stops get hit, contingent orders become active, get filled and we buy back once things settle down, making another boatload of money on the way back up.
Nothing to worry about as long as you are being smart.
Three points I’d like to bring up for you, Gary, if you please:
1) In your interview you were saying that we can expect AGQ to outperform its X2 function to about 130%.
Then the guy asked you what you would expect the AGQ price to be if silver were to get to $50, and I think you said about $400.
Is it me or….? that doesn’t seem to work out for me…. that’s 8X
2) regarding the inevitable D wave …. What do you think would happen if the Middle East trouble worsened over the next year or so (which I think should be considered, as there would seem a clear possibility of it happening).
Say it would lead to closure of the Suez Canal, and perhaps even the Islamic Brotherhood in Saudi Arabia eventually stopping the sale of oil to the west??
(My guess would be that the dollar would get into serious trouble, and the normal D wave consolidation would be shortened, followed by a steep A wave..)
3) Here in the UK in terms of the British pound, probably like the euro, the top of the C wave might not be so dramatic….and the D wave not s steep as with the USD.
If the pound falls with the rising dollar, the precious metals will possibly be worth hanging onto….
Thanks Gary.
Congrats on the superman thing.
Please don’t get too popular with the investment advice or you’ll start having an influence on the markets!!
Gary
The coil in silver? I thought that was nullified, if that was what you were speaking of
jeff, i think gary was talking about stocks (coil).
Danial
Good thanks That would make sense
John –
AGQ is 2x, but I’m pretty sure it’s re-leveraged daily (otherwise AGQ would suffer the ‘leverage trap’). The returns should go up exponentially so 8x might be possible at $50/ounce silver.
DailyMovingAvg50/200
Happy to read you are refining your plan. I have been doing incrementail conversions for the last three years and have avoided using any retirement assets for taxes. I was going to add that conversion sooner rather than later might be better….especially if you can direct xfer stuff geared to Gary’s work…:-)
wow, oil nearly $110 now…is that inflation, or just expensive oil?
Moneyman is inviting all to a BBQ at his house!
John,
In point 1 your math may be ok, but your thinking is faulty. Gary’s comment was to the effect that agq MAY get a little more than a 2x effect during the ladder part of the c-wave. So, IF silver has, say, 50% to go, then agq might see 130%.
Razvan!
Is this you?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cw0HRDIQ10I
Can understand that you have back pain!
Try tiger balm!
AGQ to 400$ .. to answer that question … if SLV gets to 50$ thats about a 30% increase from here … AGQ is a 2x Ultra Fund, which therefore assumes a 60% increase. 60% of 250$ ( current AGQ price ) is 150$ … 250+150= ?
Lol Brian!!
How many subscribers have Gary?
Need to know how much meat I should buy?!
This comment has been removed by the author.
John said…
“…250$ ( current AGQ price )”
Thank Peter – of course! I wasn’t seeing it as the ACQ share price… (I think I’ve got a faulty brain)
J
Moneyman, He only has a couple thousand subs, but you have to figure 10% would be no shows. Thanks for stepping up like this.
If moneyman was smart, he would require that everyone entering his bbq toss him a SAE. That’s how you can tell that are from the SMT and not some joe off the street coming for free food.
Moneyman, Have them all bring a dish to share plus their drink. Imagine pouring over the selections. LOL
New to this site. Great discussions re investing without all the abusive content on other blogs. I’m trying to ride this C wave and appreciate all of your support. Thanks Gary and fellow bloggers.
OK, rookie sub here. Can someone share a little about conversions from traditional to Roth IRA’s since it’s come up today? I’m in my 30’s, with my traditional balance about 8x what my Roth is. I just started contributing to the Roth in the last couple of years and have thought about conversion but taxes suck. What advice would you give on conversion? Convert a little each year or something like that? Thanks. Totally love reading this blog every day!
Kevin, is there a way to roll it over and extend out your tax burden over a couple of years. Talk to a tax man or your broker can refer you to who would know.
Just talked to my gold coin guy. He said they are expecting a sell off from hedgefunds making a big dump and driving the price down then buy back.
Peter,
Thanks for the math. Now it`s all coming clear! LOL!
TZ,
Thanks for your opinions and sharing.
At ease,
Sell off tomorrow? Next week? Month?
Lol!
You guys are crazy..!
Razvan will entertain at the BBQ ..He said he would make an attempt on world record in clean and jerk.
“If moneyman was smart, he would require that everyone entering his bbq toss him a SAE. That’s how you can tell that are from the SMT and not some joe off the street coming for free food”
LOL!!!
Wonder what kind of dish Gary will bring?!
Now it’s time for CSI. Take care guys! 🙂
ALEX,
Welcome back to civilization:)
Still holding my GPL. If it breaks higher, do you think it can stay above 4.2 given the share dilution from the secondary offering?
I`ve got the feeling that when this crowd starts selling, there are going to be more than a few grins and bbqs going around. Again, thank you Gary and all those that add so much to this blog.
Kevin
Several points to consider,here are a couple. Do you trust the gov’t to maintain the Roth setup? What is your current marginal tax rate. Can you swing the conversion without using ira money and still do your annual contribtion. And that’s just some general stuff.
As a practical matter, I converted one of our son’s ira soon after the Roth was created (another never had a traditional ira), however, it was best for me to delay piece-meal conversions until my retirement due to a better marginal tax rate (amt is enough hell all by it’s self).
For your specific situation, get your calculator out or spend a few bucks or a tax advisor to form a plan.
Simplistic TaxMan question for anyone who might care to chime in:
As I understand it, in my own unsophisticated/chartless way, regression to the mean during a D-wave = roughly a loss of 33-50% from the peak?
If this is correct, does it not approach possible break-even (35% bracket) for holding LT, even if one bought near the highs?
Oh, and did I miss it?
Did MoneyMan invite us all over for a Q and a swim?
Open question to the board; What do we use as `mean`? 200 dma? Is mean different for all things, as in metals, equities, etc? TIA
I was referring to the 200 dma.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Kevin-
I have traditional and Roth IRAs. I converted to a Roth late last year, and was fortunate to be able to pay the taxes out of my other non-IRA savings. I would urge you to do the same if you can swing it.
I will keep the Roth as is for the foreseeable future, but since I believe (and I know there is a difference of opinion here on this point) the government will exert greater and greater control over IRAs in the future in terms of ‘approved’ investments, at some point I will likely cash my traditional IRA and move the funds into PMs. When I do that will be a line of scrimmage call, but I will want to take advantage of the tax exemption as long as possible.
And I was referring to U.S. tax brackets, as if it’s the center of the universe. Sorry.
And I was referring to U.S. tax brackets, as if it’s the center of the universe. Sorry.
I think this speculative orgy needs an ice breaker.
Open question to the forum:
Assuming that we have the ultimate conviction that the A,B,C,D gold wave pattern will perform as anticipated, why not short GLD/SLV on the D wave? If we have the confidence to go long on A and C waves, shouldn’t we also have the conviction to go short on B and D waves? I understand that we are in a secular PM bull market, but help me to understand why one wouldn’t short the PMs on the D wave, when this correction is just a likely to happen as the rest of the A,B,and C waves that preceded it. Thanks!
Alex, SHZ, It sure looks like you know how to play them. Like a gunslinger. lol
I am new at this Blake. But I am a decent parrot and I have learned one thing:
Never short a bull market. Your risk is infinite!
Now, I am still tempted to buy a 2x leveraged silver or gold short ETF but I am focused on getting to the top of the C wave before worrying about all that.
One wave at a time. That’s my motto.
Blake,
If you are a premium member, read the bottom of the April 6 report for the answer.
Blake, A Gary rule that you do not short a BULL Market!
Angry Hippie, He didnt’ know so I laughed and said, don’t they do that all the time? I don’t think he knows as much as Gary. No worries, we have stops in place.
Who were the top callers Gary referred to earlier? Hammy?
Vonda
Your thought is loaded with speculation and “what ifs”, even if the math seems to work for you. Sometimes the right course is to take the pofit that stares you in the face (when the time comes)…and in thiat case, look to Gary to recycle the proceeds into more profit.
Besides your gov’t needs the revenue, I’m sure you’ll get a thankyou note……
Blake,
it really does hurt if your wrong!
The reason for that Blake is the old saying that “surprises come on the upside” in a bull market. Even though we expect it to happen emotionally it can be very hard to trade.
BTW I traded half of my May EXK calls for june SVM. Just would rather have it further out if it runs late.
Yes, W, we always get a lovely engraved thank you note.
I’d get a better return by taking bullion down to the interstate and using it to fill in the potholes.
BTW my wife has an IRA that we trade and at first I wanted turn that in to a regular account but I want to use that money as leverage. If you don’t need it, just keep it in there and cash it in 15 years from now when it is enormous.
Thanks all for your considered replies. I was considering riding the D wave with a short silver/gold ETF, which would cap my risk exposure (albeit for a max loss of all capital allocated to purchase the security). But it seems the resounding consensus is to let the D wave correct the parabolic C wave gains, and buy back at oversold levels and ride the A wave back up 🙂
I converted my simple IRA to Roth in Jan 2011. For the tax year 2010 only, you can defer 1/2 of tax payment to 2011 and 1/2 to 2012.
Best thing I ever did. Already have a huge tax free gain and no tax due for a long while.
I figured you had your stops in, at ease. You’ve been on the train longer than I have.
I may buy a few SLW puts for kicks and see if it works.
There will be other piece of crap sectors to short at that point instead of going after the pms.
What are others planing on doing? Going long UUP?
Angry Hippie, Only been here since February.
This has been brought up…There are some that think retirement plans are being targeted for government take over.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/holland/holland12.1.html
serve me with a nice piece of steak and i will lift anything in sight. I might fail but the weight is sure not going to catch me underneath it.
Jayhawk,
was thinking of some position in EUO, all things being equal.
Jayhawk, I am planning on going long UUP or HDU in Canada. Seems like the easiest way to play it.
I am not a successful shorter so I will be conservative in order to save cash for the next cycle.
Power and internet problems over.
No, Alex, it wasn’t because I was too heavily leveraged to pay my bills. A bad windstorm in Atlanta caused the problem.
John,
If silver goes to $50 that would be a 25% increase from today’s level.
If AGQ were to double that it would rise 50% or about $375 from todays level.
If AGQ goes to $400 or a little higher that would be about 66-70% gain. Thus slightly outperforming it’s intended 2 times goal.
The dollar will put in it’s three year cycle low right on schedule what happens in the oil market is meaningless. We will have another brief deflationary period as the dollar rallies. That will drive commodities down into their three year cycle low regardless of what happens in the middle east.
It will also drive the D-wave in gold.
Jeff,
The coil in the S&P. Silver has been negated.
This is a good read from the Aden sisters:
http://www.republictradinggroupinternational.com/2011/04/06/aden-sisters-why-you-should-buy-gold-and-silver-now/
I’ve thought about long positions vs short positions and relative risk, and I think the two risk profiles are about equal.
You can lose all you have either way.
Thinking you cannot go below zero on the long side is scant comfort in the real world. I doubt that anyone here invested in the PM bull could ride their current position to zero and still be solvent.
But Gary’s point of not shorting bull markets is a good one.
W, at ease, TJ, and everyone:
Thanks for the IRA advice. The big question is “Do I trust the government?” I guess that’s the elephant in the room for everyone.
I do have a very low (basically nonexistent) tax rate right now and for the near future. I don’t make much, I have 2 kids in diapers and my wife is at home with them for now.
I’m changing careers, so hopefully making more in a couple years.
If you must play the D-wave then do it with a few puts so you know what your total risk is. And be prepared for a volatile ride.
You think it’s been hard to hold on to long positions it will be ten times as hard to hold onto short positions during the D-wave.
All of you thinking your going to short the D-wave and make a killing are in for a rude awakening. I doubt 1 in 10 of you will make any money at all and most will end up losing some of their C-wave profits.
I’ve read that some, maybe most, people have abandoned their lottery ticket SLV Arpil 40 call position.
It was a long shot going in and is no more so now, so I’m probably married to this position for good.
Being within $2 on silver’s price to a payoff with over a week to go is not awful, IMHO.
Thanks for the caution, Gary.
By the time the final blow off top of the C wave is complete, the short silver and gold ETFs should be worth almost nothing, right?
I am having trouble seeing how we would lose money with those. I will stay out based on trust, but I feel like I must be missing something fundamental that I would like to get a handle on so that i can make smart decisions in the future. You know, once your fortune is made, you own your own mountain, or two and are done fooling with the PM markets.
First time commenting here. Been reading this blog a while, especially since January. I notice a serious decline in this blog’s content/value and want bring it up to Gary, and also everyone else, for comment and improvement.
Two months ago, a decent percentage of comments were from knowledgeable, active traders. Their insight was very valuable, especially when Gary joined the conversation. As this final c-wave progresses, I see more and more new people are commenting, fewer of these knowledgeable traders are replying and the sheer volume of comments (time to read) increasing. Some of the reasons I see are:
1. Low value questions. Some questions are easily answered with 10 minutes serious thinking or a few Google searches. This clogs the blog with unnecessary comments and tires out the good traders who stop responding to the same questions over and over again.
2. Noise. This is a blog about riding the metals bull, Gary’s fundamental views and his model portfolio. However, only about half the comments discuss these topics. (Asking advice if you should sell your options, or a hot junior gold miner, are off-topic. Gary isn’t touching them for valid reasons, so they shouldn’t be discussed on the blog. There are other blogs that focus on those topics. Want to talk off-topic with someone – exchange emails and go offline like many have done. Otherwise, it’s all noise/distraction.)
3. Egos keep popping up. Some people get defensive when others discuss their strategy/ideas and some people make comments that seem rude or superior. The reply comments start spiraling out of control. (Drop it and deal with the message, not its presentation. Most traders have egos, a personal desire to be “right”. You have to believe in yourself to be a good trader, so it comes with the job, but we must tone it down for the blog. If someone is out of line, let’s remind them nicely when replying that we need respect for a productive blog.)
Regardless of whether you concur with the reasons above, or have other reasons, I think we can agree that currently:
-We are losing the active, knowledgeable traders. I have seen several quality people mention in the last week that they will post less or only periodically review the blog. Huge loss to all of us and the reason we are reading the blog to begin with.
-We have now lost Gary. Gary can’t keep up with the blog anymore. This is a big deal, as we are here because of his insight.
-The blog will take up more and more time to read/comment. Time is money, and causes knowledgeable people to limit their participation.
We really need to do something people. I’m on the verge of leaving the blog myself for these reasons. I’m amazed Gary hung in for this long.
PS- If any of the above offends you, then please know I was talking about everyone else but not you, so don’t take it personally. 🙂
PPS-Please don’t respond with “just skip comments if you don’t want to read them”. I try to read everyone’s comments to learn and be fair, and separating the good from the noise is just getting too much. Offer a better solution please.
H,
The double funds will undergo a reverse split at some point.
These are not stocks theses are derivatives of gold and silver. If you buy high and sell low you will lose money. And that’s exactly what most people will do. They will buy the inverse fund when they become convinced the D-wave has begun.
That’s exactly when we will get a violent counter trend rally. Most will freakout and sell as it will look like the C-wave isn’t finished.
This is how most people are going to lose money trying to play the D-wave.
The only successful way to ply it is to buy a few puts when you think the top is in and then close your eyes and look at them again in a couple of months.
WES,
You’re not wrong about those lottery calls, I’ve been checking in on my hypothetical positions, they still have a shot at paying out.
My main motivator was seeing that I couldn’t get a 10x to 20x Lottery payout on them ($43-$44 Silver) so I abandoned at break even.
But I’m cheering for you.
Thanks. My account is ‘only’ up 35% since reading your blog in late February. I am still a little shaky on why stay out, with an understanding of the potential D into C type head fake you could avoid the emotional sell. But I know when to listen, too.
I really appreciate your daily breakdowns.
Hot Rod,
I’m unaware of a 3x silver ETF, but it’s easy to create that position.
You can buy the SLV May call at the strike price that sells for 1/3 the price of SLV. That would be about $12.85 currently.
That would give you 3X leverage with about zero time value.
Of course, you will have to listen to TZ telling you you will go broke buying options. Ask him how his silver commodity position can go up without SLV also going up an equal percentage amount.
That should produce a creative answer.
Gary,
Any thoughts on playing the Vix, possibly through an ETF like VXX. The complancy in the market is mind-boggling and one would think that this can’t continue.
SILVERMAN
I do, if and when it can regain the 20sma and get more volume in the buying. drab volume today.
Problem is (in the back of my mind) where we are in the cycle. If we get an overall pullback for a bit…this chart could retest that $3.50 and double bottom, but I dont think so. Its doing O.K. for a semi-down day…oversold on stochastic, MACD still above zero line…hoping the worst is over for this.
TRADERLADY
We’ll see , huh? I could get ‘shot down’ tomorrow! 🙂 But so far, SHZ is looking promising in a few ways.
Thanks, Poly.
It looks like the gain won’t be large, but the amount risked wasn’t either.
I own 100.
F,
Don’t get sucked into those quagmires.
Just stay focused on riding the rest of the C-wave.
blakemancillas
Gary’s motivation to work puts for the d-wave, if you must do something in the PM world, is what I’m practicing now with puts on ZSL. If Bob Love Hawaii would get back in here, we might all learn something. It was motivation for him that got me to start the exploratory position.
Kevin
Good to hear you’re thinking ahead with a realistic veiw. Sounds like the first priority is being able to fund the ira you’ve got (Roth or otherwise). thinking about your kids made me grin, well remember when our were that age…. 🙂
The dollar is such poop. Popped nicely this morning and spent the rest of the day throwing all the gains away. 3-yr low, here we come.
F
Ditto what Gary said. Even the couple times I’ve made money with hitting vxx right, it wasn’t worth the effort…not to mention the losses exceed the gains….
Was watching volume on my 1 day , 5 minute real time chart, and someone just came in and scooped up some SHZ fairly big at day end.
Interesting article about silver production and use in industrial applications.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-technologies-to-drive-silver-demand-higher-2011-03-29
Alex, I saw the same thing on SHZ. ADX popped from 20 to low 40s in abut 5 minutes – gave it a nice DMI and MACD.
I hope some others enjoyed Fortuna today!
Top rising ETF’s per Vestorvest,(just guess?) lol: AGQ,DBS,PSLV,SLV,BAL(cotton),SIL,SLVR,UCO,ERX,EDC,GDXJ.
Someone said they like to explore lists. This one is real clear.
Brian
I Did enjoyed watching it…looks great. I am not in it tho 🙁
MWAAAH -MWAAAH
Looks like today’s silver action created some headroom before the need to worry about silver being overbought.
I’d sure like to see overbought silver next week, as I still have lots of April call options on SLV.
I thought those Rare Earths were supposed to be a fad?
Just read citigroup will do a 1for10 reverse split…never thought of them like one of those 2x inverse funds (zsl), but maybe I should…
WES,
I hope so too, I’m away on vacation the week of the 18th and was hoping to have my sales made this Friday and all of my cycle bottom buys made by next Friday the 15th.
I still like the idea of going long the dollar at the d wave. gary has said it would be a “safe” play. i will give garys play the the time 108% consideration though. my money is that he has the better idea than i.
I hope our miners explode like rare earths do.
Poly- (Gary and TZ, you can look away)
I was looking for a lottery type play on SLW or SLV options for the final push higher. May, June expiration. Thoughts?
Brian,
Rare Earth elements are not a fad. Although plentiful, they are very difficult to process to purity. Current supplies and expertise is Chinese, with the rest of the world dependent on their supplies. With so many green and military applications using rare earth metals, demand will outstrip supplies for years. I have nearly a 5% portfolio allocation to this group. James Dines came out with buys in 2009 and calls himself the original rare earth bug (along with the original gold, silver, and uranium bug!).
BRIAN
You are the Brian with AVL?? Or was that another Brian on here. If so…looks real good!REE is still a psycho stock 🙂
I sold my AVL in Feb around $8 to use the $$ elswewhere.
I was in some REE calls yesterday but sold them! 🙁
Quick off-topic question for the board.
I’ve been trading silver futures (SI) as well as AGQ, SIL and SLW in my taxable accounts. In my IRA account, I can’t trade futures (it’s with Schwab). For example, I want to be able to buy US Dollar Index futures (DX) once the dollar bottoms.
I’m considering switching the IRA to Interactive Brokers so I can trade futures. Does anyone see a drawback to this? The potential problem I see is that IB might be more likely to go bankrupt or suffer some other calamity than Schwab (or any other bigger institution — although that may not be true.)
Any thoughts?
HNR is getting ready to launch again
Jayhawk,
Of course 🙂
Just going to have to wait a few more days and wait for the drop into the cycle low.
to find the right candidate that is.
Maybe even AGQ this time around, although they can be expensive.
JD, Hang around and TZ will take you to school on IB. Most people who use them speak highly of them.
Alex, I had Tasman Metals. Made over a double and dumped to go elsewhere. Big mistake it looks like!
If anyone can offer any help on this I would reallly appreciate it
I have an old Keogh plan (I actually forgot about it – it was from my first employer after college) with about 10K in it that I want to cash out and possibly move into my silver trading account. I don’t fully understand all the tax and penalties involved.
My understanding is that if I cash out, I get a 20% penalty plus am taxed on the amt. as regular income. I can roll it all into a tradable IRA account for no penalty, but if I want to take it out of that account before I hit retirement age I am penalized 10% plus income tax.
Do I want to move this into an IRA at a company like TD Ameritrade and just trade my silver stocks within the account? Or do I want to move it to cash and trade like that? It seams like going the IRA route saves me 10%, but I feel like I’m missing something here.
Any help would be GREATLY appreciated.
I am currently unemployed (laid off a year ago – no available jobs in my field in my area) if that makes any difference.
Bump and grind until we near the next cycle top?
We probably are nearing the daily cycle top.
on Tues Gary said Gold should have another 3 to 10 days of upside before the move down into the next daily cycle begins.
Jennifer,
Don’t take the distribution, 10% penalty plus income tax.
Consider a standard IRA rollover to your preferred broker AND then do an IRA to ROTH IRA conversion.
You will pay no penalty and only income taxes, which will be minimal with your unemployed status.
Having the funds in a ROTH with minimal expense is the most ideal scenario, IMO.
Salty, agree. IMO, we could have one or two more strong up days, followed by a big gap up with an intra-day reversal to mark the top.
ALEX,
Thanks for the feedback. Hanging in GPL with some stops just below 4to keep some profit. Started reading “24 Essential Lessons…” today. I like it! Did jump ahead to “climax top rules” 🙂 Clearly I have a lot to learn.
JD,
You’re not allowed to trade futures in an IRA account, at least that’s what I was under impression.
Poly:
Thanks for the input. My biggest concern is that, if worse comes to worse and I can’t find a job sooner than later I might actually have to access the money in the account. But, you still think that the Roth IRA is the best solution right? I know I can pay my health insurance and some expenses our of a standard IRA tax free if I am unemployed.
Ugh. Its all so confusing. Don’t end up unemployed people. Its so stressful.
Last cycle count I have 32 days
Is this correct anyone?
Also, for the whole group:
Are you guys very anti-TDAmeritrade on this board? I like that it comes with free TOS software and access, and I don’t use leverage, so margin fees don’t concern me.
31
TZ,
Good call today. Lets hope your call for tomorrow is also spot on. I believe Fidays are usaully strong days for PM’s.
Anyway 32 days give or take is a stretched cycle, which is possible we may have another stretched cycle.
James
Poly,
No, you can trade futures in an IRA account. It’s possible.
Now, some brokerages won’t allow you. And if your 401k is run by your employer, they probably won’t allow you to trade futures.
But IB and other brokers will allow you to trade futures and options. When I first learned this, I was quite surprised. For whatever reasons I’ve stuck with Schwab for my IRAs, but now I’m thinking about switching. My primary motivation is to go long dx futures when the US dollar bottoms — going long UUP doesn’t seem like it will give enough oomph.
@JD,
Go to know, thanks. I trade options in all mine and wife’s ROTH’s.
@Jennifer,
If you have to take the distribution from the ROTH, then I guess you would be in the same position anyway, 10% penatly + Income tax.
Jennifer, I have TDAmeritrade and I don’t have any major gripes. My only real problem is one that this blog helped me fix – their margin rates. I was able to show them more competative rates and they lowered mine to match.
Regarding umeployement, I hear you! Been there, done that, didn’t like it! Hopefully the gold bull will save you 🙂
Either that or we would need two more cycles before we top out above 1600?
@James,
But even with a stretched cycle, you need to allow 7-10 days to get to the bottom! We’re really in the area where a top can form any day now too.
My last post.
The last cycle of the last C-Wave added $200 (at the $1,000 area) so that’s 20%.
A similar final daily adding 20% would be $1,752, in one cycle!
Trying to wiggle or time around the coming daily cycle low may be pointless if we get anywhere near that C-Wave performance blowoff.
Hmmm,
We may not need the extra cycle to top out above 1600
Assuming a cycle will net us 100-120 points
I don’t plan to trade around the dips, just mentally preparing myself when it comes.
James
Usually stretched cycles are followed by short ones.
Poly,
7 to 10 days after the next cycle top would seem a few days too many.
The previous cycle top did take about that many days since we were still trying to breakout above resistance.
Now that we are above resistance I’m thinking maybe 4-5 days for the cycle bottom.
So we’ll see…
James
Thanks Poly and Low Tax!
Gary, I’m a late comer to this party, do you use the same parameters on your Bollinger bands for silver?
Jennifer
Poly will likely respond too, but you still should do the initial rollover, at least. If need be later, pull funds from the ira. You may qualify for special hardship conditions (can’t list all of them from memory) that would give you a tax free withdrawl or some type of loan. That would allow you to put the money back in later.
JD
Maybe your ira is large enough to split and have what you want both places?
Thanks W. I don’t intend to touch the money, but it may come to that. I’d rather just let it sit in silver (minus the d wave) and grow for the next 3 years. Anyone need an architect? 🙂
SILVERMAN
You said..”Reading “24 Essential Lessons…” today. I like it! Did jump ahead to “climax top rules” 🙂 Clearly I have a lot to learn.
Me too ( a lot to learn) !– you jumped ahead to it, I keep going back to it…it makes sense ( I read it maybe 4 times ((the climax top)) w/charts for reference).
It imagine golds wont be exactly the same, but its good to know what to look for roughly. Glad you like the book,I really do to.I write pg #’s in the back cover for quick reference.
You CAN trade futures in an IRA. It depends on the broker. TOS will approve your IRA for trading futures if you already have futures trading experience. IB and Trade Station will let you trade futures in an IRA with them regardless of your futures trading experience.
Jennifer,
I’m still a TOS user. I like their charting packages, both TOS charts and ,but these days I generally use only the TOS charts.
If you do any options spreads, their software support is excellent. One of the best out there for options trading.
They used to have flawless updates to the software, but since TD Ameritrade bought them out, their updates are sometimes buggy, but they usually fix the problems quickly.
TOS’s customer support has been great. I can usually get a quick answer via their live chat. Haven’t used the phones much for support. They also respond quickly to email.
I could get better commission rates at IB, but so far I’m just not motivated enough to make the switch.
JD,
I think you’re right about UUP not giving much leverage on a dollar run. However, what about deep in the money calls on UUP? (I will look into that myself over the next couple of days.)
Jennifer
oops, wish you hadn’t said that. Note that investing in metals (among other things) in a traditional ira is considered a distribution by the irs. A silver keyed investment should be ok, but not just straight metals, etc. That barage of bs in layed out in irs publication 590. Sorry to add to your complicating factors, but thought you should know…
Mr. Savage – Thanks for the Newbie entry info, appreciated. F
W:
Does that mean I would have to stick with miners or would AGQ count as a straight metal?
I’m assuming many people on this board are investing in metals through IRA’s right? Or have most of you that had IRA’s cashed out for the penalty and are investing from cash accounts?
FWIW, I’ve had my cash account in silver for 2 years now, this is a second account that I want to put to work for me.
For any Canadians out there: I have been in and out and in CVE:SDR, for almost two years. Could be a huge silver property/ no debt. Drill results any day? Went from .09 to .15 today. This could be the next momentum trade, similar to INM. If you have some fun money, dyodd. Suddenly, I am up 171%, and this could be only the beginning! ;D
GKC,
gold is the cyclical driver of the sector. All entries and exits are keyed off of gold.
This comment has been removed by the author.
Hey W
I was thinking in the later stages of this bull run, That I would allocate some money towards Sprotts trusts. Do you think I would have an issue being this was an IRA account?
Jennifer
I’m no tax expert, but agq is not a metal. It is a dirivitive…futures based.
PC,
Good idea about UUP calls. The volume doesn’t look that great now, but that will probably improve once people perceive the bottom to be near.
Haggerty
Sorry, don’t know the structure of the Sprotts trusts, but it could be dicey if you mean a physical gold stash. I’m not sure, but it appears the rules for this are different for traditional vs Roth IRAs…
I’m not sure your best return will be had by playing the dollar long. If the dollar were to bounce from say 71 to 85 that would be roughly a 19% return.
If XLE were to just return to the 200 DMA that would constitute a 21% return.
Of course in a bear market assets go beyond the 200 DMA and eventually turn the 200 DMA down. So your return on a short of an overextended asset like XLE could be closer to 40-50%.
Jennifer (and others)
“You Can Own Gold and Silver ETFs in an IRA
The IRS has made an exception for gold and silver ETFs held in an IRA. On August 10, 2007, the IRS privately ruled that shares of ETFs in the form of a trust that mirror the price of physical gold and silver do not constitute an acquisition of a collectible if they are acquired in an IRA. As a result, the IRS does not consider money invested in shares of gold and silver ETFs within an IRA to be a distribution subject to an early withdrawal penalty.(1)”
Check it out here>
http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-wd/0732026.pdf
Anyone here subscribe to the Gloom Boom & Doom report (Marc Faber)?
Gary,
Good point. As you’ve said before, shorting energy and/or tech may be the way to go.
It’s true, even if you get a “strong” bounce out of the dollar, there’s only so much you can make.
Food for thought.
You might find this article of interest.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/20539/gold-breakout-and-silver-going-parabolic
Le Fou
Gary,
Have you decided what percentage of your portfolio will be in play when you short during the D-wave?
Gnite all from the east coast here.
Want to see $40 (comfortably) in the morning.
How about some “Friday effect” magic tomorrow.
jeez, folks.
How many times does Gary have to say “I Do NOT short bull markets. I will NOT be shorting gold or silver during the D wave!!”
okay, maybe you meant “when you short another sector during the D wave”, right?
Dollar took a dump
Thanks everyone for all your help!
Jennifer,
I hold all kinds of miners, AGQ and other ETFs, silver and gold futures, etc. in an IRA and Roth accounts. I also hold roughly the same in after tax accounts. It’s about a 50/50 split.
Silver almost to $40.
Gold approaching $1466.
Tagged 40 there.
Le Fou, are you in any miners?
LowTax,
May I ask which brokerage firm’s margin rate did you show TDAmeritrade to reduce the margin interest rate? How much lower can you get?
The buck is really taking it on the chin tonight. The plan just continues to unfold as Gary has laid it out.
Cheers All.
Eammon
I’m in AG, AGQ, and I have calls on EXK.
Where in Ireland are you?
Le Fou
Look at the dollar! Dropping fast!
Le Fou, I’m in Cork at the moment!
I’m in NSU, EXK, and AGQ. I’m wondering if I should get out of NSU…
Dollar just slipped below 75.25 pivot. I’m beginning to believe Gary really does know what he’s talking about. 😉
Le Fou
I feel if the dollar starts to nosedive in earnest then we will see some serious money pouring into gold. At the moment I feel we have seen nothing yet compared to what will happen if the dollar collapses. Then, I think the really serious money will be made by all of us here, potentially. It really is a big opportunity
New 52 week low for the dollar
Oh my!
Also, big money to be had too shorting the S&P when it finally collapses in early summer. I’ve read from several sources that the S&P could drop by 20%…we will see
Eamonn,
I don’t know NSU, but it looks like it’s ready to make a strong move.
What would you move into?
I’ve been around Ireland. Had a wonderful time, and I loved the country. I never made it down to Cork, but maybe next time.
Best,
Le Fou
Oil up over $111… gold and silver up north too. things are starting to cascade
Pima,
If you look at Gary’s post prior to my question to him he was writing about shorting XLE.
Maybe you should consider using less exclamation marks, especially when you aren’t sure what your are talking about.
Le Fou, I’m kinda sounding out smarter ppl to see what I should be in…Maybe I should get into more miners to reduce risk, instead of just two? I don’t know what to do
Killarney was the closest I came to Cork.
Le Fou
Boy, the Euro really giving it to the USD right now. SLV at new high again. Could all be negated by morning, but looking very good at the moment…
Kerry people are a cute lot
Eamonn,
I believe that AG and EXK are the class of the field. AG’s been on a big tear recently, so it may be a bit over done. I prefer a more concentrated position because I think the best stocks go the farthest. These two and AGQ are enough for me.
Le Fou
Now maybe people will begin rushing to buy gold not because it’s going up, but because the dollar is losing value.
I know a few Kerry people here in the states. They are cute!
Le Fou
silver touched $40.oz already. 🙂 couple more runs at it and hopefully I will wake up with it solidly past it.
Le Fou, I’m just afraid I’ll be left holding the bag if one of them declines heavily…less stress if your money is spread across, say, 10 securities than just 3
Le Fou, some Kerry folk are in another world altogether! Ud be waiting a long time to hear anything genuine from them! Heavy going
Anyone watch $DXY in addition to /DX? I watch the spot USD, but these 2 are ones I chart and look at on TOS.
Potential targets for our dollar bounce and daily cycle high on gold/silver. Looks like 75 should hold if not around 74.25.
Daily
Weekly
How are you guys tracking silver? I don’t see $40, the highest I saw was $39.97. I’m watching it via:
http://www.silverseek.com/quotes/24silver.php
Gary, are you going to lighten up on any of your positions at the ‘top’ of this daily cycle (whenever that may be)? I’ve got some May options in EXK that have just tripled and it’s tempting to sell…Thx
@ryan
I saw 39.99 touched…I use futurespros.com
Eamonn,
I understand the security of diversity, but it seems to me that diversity just means dilution. Look up the securities in SIL. They’ve all been talked about here, but SIL is being dragged down by some weak performers. Now maybe SIL will come through in the end, but I’m willing to take on more risk to get better performance. My security is my big position in AGQ.
Past my bedtime. Good luck, Eamonn.
Le Fou
If you can tell me exactly where the top and the bottom are going to occur then sure I’ll sell and buy back.
If not, then I think I just sit still until I think the C-wave has topped.
it was $40.00 flat for buy at forex.com
Ok, I’m still awake. Can miss the show.
Options express has a high of 40.005.
Eamonn,
Are you still there?
San Diego Jack, I’m here :o)
I see us night owls are still up.
Just checking in to see whats going on.
Sorry Eamonn,
Stepped away from the computer. Yesterday, you asked about other newsletters of value, but I couldn’t answer you. I have Energy Advantage by Dr. Kent Moors (so far, so good) and Gary’s (which I am very happy with, even though still a new sub).
But, I found this site, http://www.stockgumshoe.com/reviews/
Where regular people rate the newsletters. Found this site to be very helpful for me.
…at ease,
You are truly the nightowl, as Gary and I are on Pacific Standard Time.
You know, the Left Coast…
at ease,
Saved you a seat, just in time to watch the USD plummet and the exciting action in the metals.
75.19
Oh my!
Oh yes, most of my family lives in Mukilteo WA area what my Dad called God’s country. He retired a Navy submariner over 35 yeats ago and spent his last years, hunting fishing and trapping to his hearts content (the Mt St Helens area). He is now on perpetual patrol of the puget sound. You’re safe on left coast.
If I could, I would be in SD!
Love it!
San Diego Jack, that’s very kind of you to help me that way. Thanks a million
Yeah, I am kinda fond of it too.
So close, yet so far, is that hellhole called Los Angeles!
I dream of owning a ranch in Montana…
Ur welcome Eamonn.
Wish I knew of that review site 3 years ago, so I wouldn’t be sweating the dips in my portfolio today!
(actually, since I’ve signed on with Gary, my stress level has dropped considerably)
Go Figure!
SD Jack, Cause you have a good guide through the Mine Fields is the way I look at it. Helps to know someone can tell you what the heck is going on on crazy days!
I was just bragging on Gary tonight and I think will have a new SMT follower for the next wave. Showed him the sight so he can follow the action now.
Eamonn, Do you like cowboys also?
I live in London half the year and find that Europeans love the US for the wide open spaces and Cowboy lore. Wild West I guess, cept SD Jack lives in the tamed West.
I will check out that review site. Yes, lost a lot of money and found a lot of bad advice until I found SMT site.
f’ing unreal man…
Tech Wreck Part 2 here we come!!! Please, this time, no bailouts with my tax dollars. Pretty please.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704630004576249182275134552.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories#articleTabs%3Darticle
…at ease,
You PLAGIRIST you!!!
I used that “mine field” comment yesterday, and you turn around and use it on me?
Well, I never!
Yeah, we have to keep new members coming, so he treats us (new) old timers right when we re-up.
And nice to know your dad is still on watch. Thanks for that.
Nah, I used it weeks ago! Go back and check. LOL
…at ease,
We ain’t tame, just civilized.
Of course, just 15 miles south of me, you got the Wild, Wild West in Tijuana. Killings right before crossing the border, while in line…
Adam, I’ve been sensing a drop coming in the S&P and Tech. Maybe Energy after that. But as the dollar drops, oil will go up (inverse relationship).
They’re going to make it easier for VC & PE firms to unload their garbage to the public at inflated prices. Can’t wait to see how this one turns out.
Thanks, was proud of my Dad. He had true grit. He was a mustanger in the silent service during the cold war (stories we don’t hear alot about). Engineer on the diesel subs and part of the first crew to man the nuclear class.
Yeah how crazy is that? Do these folks look for trouble or does it just find them?
Eamonn, I really think if we just used what Gary uses, we will be fine. To go after individual miners you are taking pot shots at no telling which ones will go up and which ones will stall out or drop.
I’m interested to see whether the pattern of the past couple days holds or shifts. Will Silver open higher then back fill and consolidate or charge right through 40.00.
The past couple days have been very positive in my view. This bull has been very consistent in one regard. It behaves in a manner that insures as few participants as possible given the extremely bullish price action over time.
good morning everyone,
love the smell of 40 in the morning 🙂
Well, in the Asian Market, the USD is getting hammered, again.
Gold is up
Silver is up
Oil is up
I think Gary’s comment about fear of inflation may be taking place now. There may be a run to quality in tomorrow’s NYSE, with a big drop.
SD Jack, we’re you watching when we dropped to the low cycle and Gary was within a nickel of the low? It was amazing! After that I was sold on his abilities. No worries now. It’s just amazing how his plans come together!
Cannot remember …at ease,
Too many rivulets of information passing thru my mind.
I came on board only 2 weeks ago, and was following him for only a couple weeks before that. I know you are a recent sub too, so when was that event?
SD Jack,
It was mid March. Talk about a gut wrenching ride down. But he called the bottom within in a nickel, so when you can do that, you know he knows what he is doing. It was a relief to hit it and it stopped and went back up.
Gary had to keep folks calm and not bail out and hang on for the turn back up. It was a rough ride. 🙂 So if that is any taste of what a D wave begins to feel like, you want out once that starts!
I am just amazed we have found someone like Gary. I only started in February but I can see where folks have their own way of doing things, but if they would just follow his lead, it would be easier on them to just sit back and enjoy the scenery and learn along the way all the bumps and grooves of this bull run. I know I kept hanging on to what I knew and was comfortable with, but then realized that I needed to get more heavy in Silver for the best returns and finally jumped in fully.
…at ease,
I don’t plan on second guessing his dictates on entry and exit points.
But I do plan on parlaying my earnings to personal record highs.
Am getting too long in the tooth to let this bull pass me by.
I hear you, I was overleveraged in options, so cut back to 2x the gold and silver and hung onto just the June 25 Calls. But don’t want to miss this big chance to get set up for the rest of the bull run.
sorry, meant GLD June 125 Calls.
My clear fault is that I am way too heavily weighted in options, but like you, will use those gains to solidify myself for the future push. I am aggressive in nature, so I can handle the portfolio as it stands.
And I have confidence in the Bull, in Gary, in my own positions now, and will not squander this opportunity.
Just have to get over the hump (prior losses) and move onto the next wave of profits.
would be nice to see some short covering at the london open.
You know, I think Gary is right on target with the way the PM market is moving. He said it might “grind higher” and it sure looks that way from the action taking place.
Gold and silver continue to make new highs…
This is really getting exciting
Think “I Love Lucy” is about to start…
Goodnight and Good Morning Y’all.
Yep, I hear you, I am still recovering losses from 2008. But this will definately close that gap. I had to consolidate as I am having to handle 4 different accounts and it was driving me nuts to have so much diversification in 4 different accounts. So once options were making big $ sold them and put funds in AGQ. I had to focus on the sell date and see what I needed to do to simplify things especially since I will be traveling for the next 6 weeks. So can only handle so many trigger adjustments on stop losses and needed to reduce the number of sell buttons to push. 🙂
good morning to everybody.Hoping on slw’s rally today 🙂
I hear you on that Daniele. SLW and 30 45 50 June calls is my biggest holding by far. I would love to see SLW rally really big. I may sell some calls today. 40 is a nice round number to pause at and head into the cycle low but we’ll see how the day turns out.
I’ve got some strike 38 and 43, but i think to sell on top c wave when it comes…..In these days slw just underperformed a bit…..
Silver solidly breaks past $40. Let the chasing commence!
Daniele,
is that a German Shepherd Dog in the background of your profile pic?
Hi Gary,
Are the cycle days updated on your site? I was wondering where we stand on oil…thanks!
last time brent oil was at these levels, we were a month away from cracking the economy.
should we be scared now?
just seems to soon to get at these levels.
No, it looks more than a duch shepard dog, but she’s a mestizo.i adopted 4 years ago on internet.She’s got a colour like a hyena.Very funny.
Wav, the other is a imperial crow…..
I am kicking myself for not buying another silver contract before this huge move up tonight. I was just about to pull the trigger too. 🙁
Equity futures gaining steam as well. There is no reason that SLW shouldn’t skyrocket at the open tomorrow if these gains hold.
Can anyone see the nightly report of 7 april ?
Daniele,
How did you acquire such a pet? That’s an awesome crow!
Core,
no problems here on the nightly report.
wav, from a breeder of birds (parrots,owls etc).There are just two of it in italy.Much more in germany ed austria..Wow, silver at 40,24 very very good….
who said “sit tight when u’re right” is easy!! It feels so tempting to take profits at this level. Should I or shouldn’t I? Then again, we all got here ‘old turkey’.
As 40 just got smoked I’m starting to think about the c wave top. Think originally Gary had it pencilled in for 43-50.
How fluid is that projection, do we just sit tight old turkey and wait for exhaustive candles, no matter how above the 200 DMA we get, 55 dollars, 60 dollars etc
Or do we exit / phase out at a certain target?
Clarck,
personally i still have faith in the Cwave.
we still haven’t seen any blow off tops.
I’m looking to see gold nearing the 1640 area (possible top according to John).
Then i’ll start to feel goosebumps.
Unless of course Gary’s christal ball predicts otherwise.
http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2011/04/real-price-of-silver-5165oz.html#more
This is the same on uk eBay also. I think this is significant considering eBay is generally the cheapest place to buy stuff
Thanks for the link to your interview Gary. Missed the earlier one and they’re a good listen. It’s a nice format to hear you expand on your views in a concentrated dose.
Sell? Don’t be crazy!!!!!
The massive gains are still ahead, even with a cycle low looming.
just swapped my gold for silver.
now entirely into silver.
poly,
what’s your target for silver this Cwave?
Wow, gold at 1474 now, and silver way above 40.Just beautiful:):)
… it is a pretty sight …. been waiting a lot of years for this. We cut through 40 like butter but what do y’all think about us now being above the BB ?
not selling anything poly dont worry about that 😉
Dollar is getting crushed!!!!!
Guy,
I have no idea! I’ve given up on price, just riding the cycles, there isnt much that will surprise now.
Clark,
Sorry read your post incorrectly. Good man.
Moon, I think its just foretelling the coming cycle top, but we can ride high at or above the upper BB for days!
Bollinger bands won’t get me out of this trade. They’re constantly moving targets.
We’ll have a pullback sooner or later, but the bigger money is made riding through these and then to higher prices. We can’t lose a good position just to sidestep a little pain.
Good luck PM bulls, looks like we might get a nice finish to the week.
I’d like to see a waterfall decline!!!
I will be away this morning, but I want to go on record and say
GPL…
-If it closes over $4.27 today, I think it is a strong buy and will add to my current position.
(This stock has been ‘hammered’ on this blog as “no good anymore, stupid management” ,etc.) But It could be one of the best charts I’ve seen ,if it closes above $4.27. I still think it will run…(if not this daily cycle,most likely the next)unless this chart changes a LOT.
*If it closes DOWN today, it retestes $3.50 ,if it closes above $4.27…I say it goes to about $7 by the end of this c-wave. (almost double?? Big words Alex)!
Time will tell.
Dear Silver,
You are ridiculous. I love your shiny ways. 40 never looked so good.
sb, hoping that good open won’t be waste by usual profit taking as usually seen during last 2 days …..
daniele,
It feels like it will close higher, regardless of what happens this morning. Either way, we get paid now or in a few weeks. 🙂
Still too soon for the dollar to be bottoming here (time wise)… It should make a lower low next week, regardless of where that will be.
SB,
I was expecting to see a back test of the breakout but the way things are going it looks like we may only get a one day pull back for the cycle low.
I remember when silver broke out from $20 I was waiting for a back test but it never came.
Either way I think your strategy is sound. Breaks like this is a hold and add to pullbacks if you get the chance.
Cheers
Darren
92000,
Now do you see why you don’t try to trade a bull market in the middle of a powerful C-wave finale?
One rule I’ve always followed since I became profitable is to let whatever analysis that got me into a trade be the same analysis that gets me out.
In this case, Gary has been as accurate as is possible by any trader. He got us in, I’ll let him get me out.
Oops, prior link was something else I was looking at. The link referring to Turd’s site is here:
http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/greed-vs-fear.html
My point was I don’t want to lose strong hand status!
ALEX,
Thanks a lot for the guidance on GPL. Much appreciated!
Sophia,
Yes the cycle charts section is updated every day. I do the actual charts once a week or so. Usually when a cycle low is formed.
we are running the streets today ladies
GARY
I forgot to look at that recently (your response to Sophia)
Thanks
You have the average count for Golds Daily Cycle written above the chart, but do you remember the longest count,when they’ve been stretched?
Off the top of my head I don’t remember what the longest count is. I doubt this one will run long. Sentiment is quickly becoming euphoric here.
My best guess is we have 2-4 more days before the cycle top then one more scary correction to knock off as many riders as possible before the final blast off.
Thank you Gary
And I know that your reports will do the rest (if that last shake out is really strong ,everyone will wonder if we missed the top and the D-wave started. you can talk people back off the ledge). 🙂
That’s exactly what I expect will happen.
Possibly a back test of the $1440 breakout from the $1500 level would certainly knock a lot of riders off the bull.
With today’s move we are already becoming pretty stretched above the 10 DMA.
You r welcome Silverman
…I am just keeping an eye on it. Its really a great chart if you look at it 0bjectively (as though you never owned it when it went down from $5 to $4). Look on a 23 month /wkly…I’d buy if it turned around. It just may not be ready yet:)
Good day all.
Yes GARY
I think this run will have skeptics jumping in next wk as its nearing $1500, then a pullback will seem like the top.
You’ll be reminding people NOT TO READ all the ‘top’,’bubble’ articles that will come out on silver.
thanks again
We’ll probably go right to the 72 level on the dollar and then get a dead cat bounce off of that. At the same time get a correction in our miners for a couple of weeks, then we make a new 3 year low on the dollar and ride these miners to the moon. Sounds nice.
thanks Gary.
Poly, why do you think we are due for a pullback so soon?
75.09
Oh my!
Gary – I’m trying to convince someone to take profits at the top of the C wave. How long will it be before the next C wave to come along?
Wow, what a morning. Would not be surprised if this is the silver high overnight, for our daily cycle.
I am adding to my AEM May calls, and GOLD May calls this morning, and have covered my May SLV 36 and 39 with April 40’s sold. The MM’s will need to bleed some open interest next week on those April calls and will short those stocks.
Core miners are still locked n the vault though.
Have a great day all, i am leaving soon after market open to my solar project if the weather cooperates.
Indeed, today’s move is nice to experience, but looking at th banter of new subs confidence in their leveraged positions, and I suspect there is a cleanse coming.
Hey guys, when you start feeling like this bull can’t go anywhere but up, its time to strap in b/c the gold bull isn’t likely to make your ride smooth and easy.
We are coming due for the daily cycle correction. If you’re leveraged that means a double digit percentage drawdown.
Sensing the overconfidence has me wanting to lock in a few percent of profits. I likely won’t, but the trigger finger gets itchy when folks are boasting about how easy it is, and how right they are.
With that said, the dollar is having a significant break below the March low. THat brings the low of 09 into play at 74.23. A bounce there would be a good place for the daily cycle low in gold to begin, and scare the shit out of easy riders’ accounts.
Wow
Another new 52wk low 75.06
Sophia,
Not sure what you mean by so soon, but we’re in the timing band for a top. That just means it would be a shocker!
Yesterday I posted my view (which counts little) that is what Gary posted above. I thought we get a strong day today and possibly one more and then on Monday or Tuesday we might get one of those blow-off cycle tops where it reverses intra-day.
Would anybody jump in with their father-in-laws IRA lifes saving today? Or would you wait for a daily cycle low?
KGC looks good, as well. These large caps are stuck around their 200, good value area to pick up some calls.
The short interest in these miners are high enough to force short covering.
H, Wait for the daily low!
Fubsy, good commentary!
IMO a cycle top often comes with a big intra-day move. If Silver can get up into the 3%-4% up for the day area, watch for a cycle top.
But then it shouldn’t matter following Gary’s plan, except for us over leveraged fools need not panic 🙂
chrys,
Probably a year and a half to two years before the next C-wave breaks out to new highs.
Oh, what a tangled web….
http://www.caseyresearch.com/editorial.php?page=articles/are-etfs-really-safe&ppref=CRX231ED0411A
A rather long read, but you may be glad you spent the time for all of it.
H,
I doubt the dollar goes to 72 on this cycle. More likely would be a slight break of the 09 low and another dead cat bounce.
The three year cycle low will probably just marginally break the 08 low. Just enough to suck in all the technical traders shorting into the break. Then we get a strong reversal as smart money starts piling into the dollar in preparation for the next deflationary period.
Haggerty,
I wound not jump “all in” today, but one could put at least 25% of available funds in today with no worries, IMO.
Thanks Poly
ALEX-
I like GPL here too. I added a good chunk so let’s see what it can do.
Haggerty,
I manage my Dad’s retirement accts, and from my experience, conservatism is best. Why? Losing your Dad’s money will feel worse than losing your own. I would go smaller than you think you should, especially near the top of a cycle. If I think I should put 25% to work, then I put 12% to work. i add with small increments. I calculate my stops and potential losses, and what I would be willing to lose and work from there.
IMO a smidge here, a smidge more when you think the cycle bottom is near, and more at a break out from this cycle’s top. Then, selling near the top of the C-wave (hopefully), and taking advantage of the D-Wave by being short assets that go down during a dollar rise.
This is not the last oppty to make money. Greed is dangerous when playing with your parent’s retirement money. Of course, i’m making some assumptions here re: risk tolerance etc…
Good Luck!
f
You guys see the volume on the /SI one minute sell tick? 734K
NUGT is my best pony today.
All,
Is it the small fish selling on strength? The wsj’s SoS how up-to-date is that? I see no PMs in the list at 1st glance.
Jayhawk,
Did you add GPL this morning?
yes, I added some GPL today. Nothing crazy size wise.
Tom,
nothing except the SPY has any predictive value and certainly first thing in the morning is meaningless.
This battle at 46.50 on SLW is a tough fight!
A lot of hedgies buy dips and sell rips. Selling a strong open is common. The day is only beinning to be defined. But, if you’re hanging on these little moves intraday, you will miss the big picture.
Just curious from thos of us who have been around here for awhile, how about giving some perspective to new subs….
-When was your first purchase of Silver? Gold?
-How much have you sold along the way?
-Would you be well of to have just ridden it out?
My fisrt Silver was at 12.50.
Gold at 720ish.
If I had not sold a dime, and only added on dips, I would have a lot more now than I do!!
The five minute charts are death to your riches. Play the greater intermediate cycles, and watch your accounts grow. Buy when it hurts to pull the trigger, and sell the same way.
Later!
f
Gary,
Ok, SoS just look for SPY. Is this true for BoW as well?
Thanks.
75.04
Could be we close below 75.0 today?
yes
Interesting action/reaction at the open: $ continues to make lower lows on the 5 minute chart while gold and silver are off the pre-open highs. Any tea leaves to be read here?
Looks like GPL is back 🙂
going to wait for the cycle low to add more GPL…
Shalom,
What’s your price target for NUGT? Are you planning to buy on the pull back next week (if we get it)?
As long as the dollar sinks, gold and silver will not close the gap.
My thoughts
WMP,
You really need to turn off your computer. Trying to read something into every little intraday wiggle will drive you nuts.
Hedge funds almost always sell into gap up opens or buy into gaps down.
NY,
No price target, I’ll take what it gives. I’m not selling anything, including NUGT, and will consider adding into the pullback when it comes.
I’m not entirely convinced I’ll add, but that is the only decision to be made. Selling is not an option at this point, IMO.
I’ll post if/when I buy more.
A very rough estimate is that NUGT could have a 50% rise.
The stockmarket looks a bit tired…Neither Nasdaq nor DAX are making it today…
I want to sell my DGP and SLV and roll it into AGQ and SIL to get a little more juice. Anyone have any words of wisdom about timing such a move? Or am I overthinking this too much?
Gary,
You’re right…but i believe I’m in pretty good company here 🙂
Sophia,
The market is locked in a volatility coil. The assumption is that it will break down as earnings season starts.
Everyone will freak out and sell and then the market should quickly reverse and enter a very powerful and sustained rally throughout the rest of the earnings season.
Francisco,
I think DGP is a fine choice. A switch might work out for you, but I’m always careful to dump a solid holding to chase something that has had a very good run.
It’s up to the individual, but it’s not a move I would be comfortable making. One can always exchange a partial position and see how it goes?
i have seen a few people cite Casey Research as a source, its been alleged that they are a pump and dump organization. I can provide links, but , check for yourselves
Gary, so do you think another right translated intermediate equity cycle?
Doesn’t that push the 4 yr cycle further to the right and limit the bear market decline, somewhat at least?
F,
This may or may not happen.
I would look for a large gap up sometime early next week on the open. Preferably above $1500. That would convince all the technical traders to pile in and would almost certainly be the top of this daily cycle.
Sell into that gap and then wait for the daily cycle low before buying back.
Thanks SB. My thinking was that Gold and Silver have been moving in relative lockstep lately, with AGQ moving more dramatically (to the upside AND the downside). I wouldn’t get out of DGP outright if I wasn’t rolling it into Silver to take advantage of the next daily cycle. I know both should benefit, but it appears that Silver has been trumping gold during this run as Gary suggested.
Poly,
No I think like Doc that this will probably turn out to be a left translated equity cycle that tops somewhere around week 7-10.
fusby, Watching a good fight is a lot different than stepping in the middle of it!
I came on here in early 09. Bought my first miners around April of 09. Biggest mistakes I made was selling anything from that buy point.
IMHO the best thing anybody could do at the bottom of the coming D Wave is load up on a smorgasbord of miners and shut down the computer until 2014-15. You would likely come back and realize you were wealthy beyond what you could have imagined.
Alex,
Nice call on SHZ yesterday..
Thanks Gary. I was thinking something along those lines. I was just concerned about trying to time exits and entries. Regardless, I know I won’t catch the tops and bottoms, but I didn’t want it keep running without a pullback to get back in. I know it may or may not happen, but that’s what I’m thinking about doing at this point.
Here’s a long term silver chart – from the ZH post this morning.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/bernanke/gc%203_3.png
I don’t think anyone can make a realistic, knowledgeable price target, resistance and support zones mid term for silver here, using TA.
In many ways, I feel that the events from 1980 (Hunt spike) have to be largely ignored from a charting perspective because of the rules and the rule changes. THey can be taken into consideration from the price sensitivity perspective on supply.demand, though.
THis current parabolic move we are still in the middle of is many magnitudes more powerful than 1980. We have built a much stronger foundation. One could argue that the move from $22 to $50 in 1980 was all “froth.”
One thing is for sure from my perspective. We need to go as high as possible on this move. Of course, it risks a larger fall short-term but gives us much more firepower longer term for a possible climb even higher. Best case scenario (unlikely to happen quickly) is we make a move so high, the 1980 “spike” just looks like a blip.
Thanks Gary for your thoughts about the stock market…when you say that it will top around week 7-10, does it mean from the bottom next week?
Sophia,
From the recent bottom.
wmp
That’s funny!!
Woo hoo, bought AGQ on Feburary 15 for 155.10 per share, just hit 255.10 per share. On to 355.10 per share…
Hot Rod,
Don’t fool yourself. If silver can hit $50 there will be an avalanche of supply hit the market.
Articles like this are just setting people up to get caught at the top.
If silver hits $50 I will sell everything and not look back until the D-wave has run it’s course.
The problem with silver is that it is a very thin market. If you get caught on the down side, even by one day, silver could drop from $50 to the low $40’s.
One has to be prepared to get out early and not regret missing the last few percentage points because the consequences of getting caught can be extreme.
thanks Gary… mid-May as you said
Brian,
Agreed!! THat’s my intention for the next ABC Cycle in Gold. I’ll be buying a combo of Silver,a dn miners. And will use AGQ as a trading vehicle around intermediate cycles.
I look at the trades I made…buying SLV at 13.47 selling at 15.28 etc….Makes me chuckle….and cry. lol
will sell DAX on May 5th or 6th….
Gary, would you sell when it hits $50 or closes at $50?
Gary,
How low do you figure the US$ index will go before bottoming?
Twin “dollar destroyers”:
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/4/8_Turk_-_Twin_Dollar_Destroyers_to_Create_Earthshaking_Collapse.html
I need to set an alert for a stock to signify that level is hit, as I will be traveling. Which one would be a good indicator to watch?
Gary,
Another silly question but it has been haunting me for quite some time. I read a paper calling for a stock market crash “a la 1987” very soon…Do you think that it is possible even with what happened already in March and also what happened last year in May?
If that was the case, I guess that we would see a massive rally on Gold
Hotrod
Looking at the chart you posted. From a TA perspective. As a rough rule of thumb for targets you can use the repeating ranges. If you look at the move up from the ’08 lows, silver has an approximate $10 repeating range (a little bigger than 10).
This has repeated 3 times, $10 to $20 then correction, $20 to $30 then correction, $30 to $40 now. If the pattern repeats we can look for a small correction here then another 10 up to $50. The parabolic blow offs can extend a little further in my experience with spec miners but it’s safe to stick to the range.
Cheers
Darren
SB, NUGT is performing very well, to the upside at least. Up 4.11% versus 2.95% for AGQ. Volume is awfully light. Have you had any problems getting in or out?
at ease,
If you can put an alert on silver futures, that’s what I would use. If you can’t, use SLV. Right now SLV is trading at about $1.00 below the futures.
It is nice to see miners out performing metals across the board today.
Silver wants to stretch those legs…..
Sandy, you can thank me. I sold my remaining April and May GDXJ calls yesterday and rolled a bit into AGQ.
Tudor,
Volume on NUGT is enough to get in and out whenever you want. Lower volumes usually mean the spread is wider. Right now the spread is 2 cents! Considering that the spread on a higher volume stock or etf is usually 1 cent, I would say the low volume on NUGT is not a problem at all. 🙂
Sold SLV April 40 lottery, made a small amount but considering that it was down a bunch, I am satisfied.
I was thinking of holding but sometimes you just got to let it go.
Maybe I should amend that statement: Volume on NUGT is not a problem as long as you’re not buying/selling tens of thousands of shares at a time.
Thanks Pima, I was looking and that seemed to be the closest one. Going to watch that like a hawk and be ready! 🙂
Gary,
Thanks. Interesting. You are pretty convinced that $50 is the top of this C Wave.
I am 100% on board about not missing the last few percentage points.
But, how can you tell that you are not missing 10%+?
So, if silver (hypothetically) ends up topping at $54.50, this would leave almost 20% on the table in AGQ (selling at $50).
Also, let’s say (hypothetically) that silver gets to $50 early to mid way in the daily cycle – would it be pertinent to put like a 5% trim trailing stop loss instead?
Lastly, what if (crazy to even comprehend, I know) silver gets close to $50 on this current daily cycle?
My guess is that you would re-evaluate constantly and have a leg through the exit door.
SB,
Yeah, I noticed that the spread was pretty damn good for such low volume on a volatile stock.
Tudor,
Getting in, no problem at 2,000 share orders or less each time I buy, and I have done this several times. I haven’t sold any as yet, so can’t comment.
It’s a new etf, so naturally the volume is low. It also keeps the manager and market makers honest, reflecting the stated 2x XAU as they want to garner more interest. If the etf had been around for years with no volume, then I might shy away, but for now this is to be expected.
The only consideration I’m giving volume is in my order sizes. If you wanted to get to 10K shares, do it in 2000 or less orders to not spook the other players.
Lastly, low volume here has nothing at all to do with non-confirmation. Unless you’re investing billions and the vehicle cannot accomodate that size, it’ll be fine for our purposes.
Besides, increasing interest is likely to be on the buy side. So do I want to wait until everybody has already bought to get mine, just so I can say it has volume? 🙂
Hot Rod,
I’m going to attempt to trade the final day of the C-Wave top even if it eclipses $50 or falls short.
I would personally expect the final day to be a monster, meaning it being up 5, 6 or even 7% before collapsing. We get a final day like that within the cycle timing band, I’m out.
At that 2,000 share size or less, the market makers have honored their quotes. 🙂
Hot Rod, you are becoming greedy… 🙂
SB, understood and agreed. I see it has options now, also. The spreads aren’t horrible, despite the nearly non-existent volume and very low OI. I won’t be playing them, however. I’ll stick with SLW, SLV, and a few of the other highly liquid issues.
Hot Rod, No Gary here, but he is trying to tell you that last little bit of gain could be wiped out in an instant.
If there is a gov shutdown, the US Treasuries are too expensive…
CMT
You will be fine since you are in AGQ.
Miners can out perform SLV or GLD, but AGQ will hold its own:)
Sophia,
If you’ve been in this business for any length of time you know that there is always someone calling for a crash. How many have we had in the last 110 years? 3.
The next bear market won’t be a crash. The credit markets aren’t going to implode twice.
The next bear will be a grinding affair as the economy slowly sinks back into the next recession.
It will look pretty much the same as the 00-02 bear market.
Hot Rod,
I know I will be leaving money on the table but if I could foresee tops and bottoms, I’d be a trillionaire by now.
These are my favorite days, with stocks and bonds down, metals and miners up.
I’m outta here until I check in before the close.
Good luck PM bulls!
Sophia/Brian,
Ok, Ok. I’ll go back in my box. 🙂
I’m a dreamer, visionary, forward thinker and like control.
Believe me, not one nanosecond after Gary indicates he closes positions I’m right behind.
No friggin’ way I stay out there “naked.”
My worry is if it is mid-day and I don’t have a CPU accessible.
I could use my iPhone….
How long before another margin hike on silver and gold?
USD about to crack 75…
ah ah, that is true Gary!
will witness the slow decline of the stock market then….
ah ah, that is true Gary!
will witness the slow decline of the stock market then….
Closing April calls on this strength probably would not be a bad idea 🙂
Is today the day that we have the top of the daily cycle? Is Bob right?
Poly that’s impressive that you still have Aprils. Are you going to buy May’s or Junes?
Sandy, re: AQG, no doubt. But, it’s a little hard to watch those calls go up 10% today. But you know what they say about the complaint of the richest trader on wall street (he always took his profits too early).
TZ, Beautiful short term call for yesterday/today.
75.01
CMT, I know the feeling.
But as Gary says, let us follow the plan and we may all be rich beyond our comprehension:)
Cheers to that.
Today would be a cycle top if we reverse next week and go below 39.51, right?
I have to say that I am pretty jealous of Gary’s expertise: thanks to that, you can plan your vacation 6 months ahead as you KNOW that in June, we will be in the middle of the D-wave and you will be eating Swiss Fondue in the Alps!! What a nice life!!! 🙂
I’m surprised at the tech stocks holding their prices. I’m shocked at some of their insane PE ratios too..
Haggerty,
I haven’t had an April since that last lottery and the bulk or core is ALL in July’s calls since the IT lows back in Jan 🙂
It was just a “IMO” for many who have been talking about them.
N1tro
how much money did you make now by following Hammys call and selling at $34.70?
From Kevin Depew at Minyanville 4/8/11:
Silver has reached its Demark-wave 5 target at 39.84 – as I shared earlier this week, lots of SELL signals showing up on all time frames in DeMark land – just don’t be greedy!
DXY daily – recorded a deferred Sequential 13 buy signal this week, but downside target of 74.90 still needs to be reached – pretty close now. Signal good for 12 trading days.
Overlapping DAILY buy setup which needs a lower low compared to today on Monday or Tuesday. Look for some dollar strength in the next couple of weeks.
DXY MONTHLY – perfected buy setup Bar 8, Bar 9 records in May, so June – September should be a pretty good bounce in the dollar. Sequential 13 is still in deferral, needing my old friend 72.50 to record.
Depew’s bottom line: We are very near a major low for the dollar!
with you on that Poly… just closed my SLV and SIL Aprils a short while ago… even if Monday we have the gap up Gary mentions I don’t wanna be trapped in the squeeze down…
Poly,
The bid price on the AGQ 200 April calls is so far in the money that it already yields almost $2 loss on each share if sold. AGQ is bid at $56.10 as I type and AGQ is bid 258.25.
I’ll offer these at fair price when I sell them and leave the offer for a minute. If it’s not accepted, I’ll have to short the common and exercise the options.
I’ll have to do this piecemeal as AGQ is expensive, and I’ll exceed my margin limits if I short it all at once.
But giving the market maker $225 per contract is not my idea of a good trade.
Kev,
How much money or profit must you lose before you figure out that you can’t time this move with technical indicators.
We still have one more gigantic parabolic move ahead of us. Does one really want to miss that because they continue to follow a technical indicator that clearly doesn’t work in this asset?
coolkev, Haven’t you been saying sell silver buy the dollar for a few weeks now?
How long can you be wrong?
NEW POST
Hey Gary,
Just got back from 4 days in Vegas, went to Red Rock, last time we went thee was in 2003.
Those houses sure have crept close to the edge of the park!
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Just A WAG, but my thoughts are that AGQ will be up more than $15 on the turn day.
But, I’m using BB’s on SLV for timing, and am showing no top yet.
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