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A curveball late in the daily cycle right here as everyone is expecting a run to the mid 60’s would catch a lot of traders off guard.
…markets love to catch traders off guard…just saying.
If it does correct it will be a buying opportunity.
What’s the upside target if it does that?
I think oil at least retraces to the 38% Fibonacci level at around $65-$67, and maybe back to the 200 day moving average.
I’m waiting for that pullback to get into OIH & XLE, as they made higher highs relative to the Feb high. I missed this 1st rise from mid-March until now as I thought it might be a dead cat bounce, and didn’t expect that higher high. Once again, me expecting anything messes up my trading. I’d think that after 100X I’d learn that lesson.
You waited for confirmation (the higher high) before you entered what could easily have been a dead cat bounce. Might still be viewed as one in a couple of months. Gary caught this… good for him. But being cautious in a down-trending market was prudent… good for you.
If we get a pullback, I plan to get into a little oil as well. The higher high makes me happy as well. And I work in the industry, so a little relief will be welcome.
There will be a pullback into a daily cycle low at some point. Although as of this morning it looks like oil wants to run to $63-$66 first before giving us the pullback.
Let me warn that this is a counter trend move so if you missed the bottom you aren’t going to get a sustained trend that you can just buy and hold. This rally will top somewhere around $65-$70 and head back down so there isn’t a whole lot of upside left. You may get a quick trade out of the next DCL but be prepared to take profits quick and get out so you don’t get caught in the next leg down in this bear market.
Whatever Gary. Maybe you should try applying your cycle babble to a weekly chart; it paints an entirely different picture. No divergence or crossover in the TSI. In fact oil looks like it could take a run at $90, which would throw traders like you off your guard.
Why would anyone try applying a theory about 70 to 90 day cycles to a 7 day chart? You trade on your time frame and we’ll trade on ours. Thanks.
I hear you on oil, Gary. I have all my capital on the sidelines waiting the right opportunity. I was thinking oil might give it first. Maybe it did and I missed it. Regardless, I have not spent a lot of time studying oil price movements and so, while I would chance a scalp there if I felt it were safe, I would not put a lot of money at risk. Where I will put a lot of money at risk is in stocks, and that right soon I think. I have spent a lot of time studying price moves there. The SNP is about to deliver an ICL I believe. I made a lot of money at the last one. I intend to do so again.
John,
Hell I’m the only one that was calling for a bottom in oil a month and a half ago. We entered USO at $16.47 to be exact.
I’m expecting a move to at least $63-$66. But there is the possiblity for a corrective move first as oil is getting late in it’s daily cycle. But I think I can virtually guarantee at least $65 before this bear market rally is finished.
Roy,
I’m going to suggest that the S&P is first going to print a smaller DCL this week then a larger ICL in late June or early July.
The only one? Seriously? Your arrogance is astounding. I know of many people who called the bottom in oil including myself. We just don’t feel the need to bark up our own tree like you do. Like I said, the weekly chart looks like oil will go much higher than most would think possible. Staying long oil!
The frackers, who have been relying on the easy money, have not slowed down one iota. The supply keeps on coming, why would OIL go back to the 70s?
That is old news Roland. According to Weatherford (5th largest fracking firm in the USA), there could be as little as 20 fracking companies left in the US by the end of the year, of which there are currently 41, down from the 61 that were operating late last year.