105 thoughts on “CHARTS OF THE DAY”

  1. Gary Post author

    Continue to wait for the swing on gold before trying to trade the bounce. An even safer play is to wait for a weekly swing to signal the intermediate bottom.

  2. David Silver

    Overnight trading both just confirmed that, ouch. Guess the only savipr in crude is the latest weekly supply data out veey soon.
    King dollar needed to come to their rescue.

    Nice stock Alex in NTES. Thinking of dabbling into ANGI myself because of hwr story.

    1. David Silver

      Thanks Mr. Savage for watching our back as always.
      Crude could be printing another undercut low perhaps in which the tell is the market makers have taken ber down pre market New York.

    2. AlexP

      ouch! ANGI looks too risky for my appetite
      it has shown no relative strength so far 🙁
      it doesn’t mean it cannot make a tremendous story … but I am too fearful a person 🙂 I prefer getting into a stock that already has a love story with Lady Market and continues confirming it – sheer momentum trading on my side

        1. AlexP

          🙂 thank you, David!
          Already in profit with my NTES

          NTES has come on extraordinary sales advance + positive non-gaap eps after 2 quarters that had come in bad.

          there have been stocks this earnings season that have blasted (eg, STMP) for less shiner momentum in fundamentals.
          But room for surprise is still there –> RUBI had great sales advance too + fabulous non-gaap eps jump but all that for nothing.
          By the way of ANGI, this kind of RUBI-like risk exists with stocks that have not yet come in loving terms with the market.

          1. David Silver

            Yes indeed sir.
            Going to cash out of my commodities debacle od yesteeday, guess in hindsight should’ve stayed put or did the opposite.

          2. David Silver

            Gonna take a stab Alex at your NTES as well.
            Man i just screwed up big time on my USD vision i.e. commodities hero trade yesterday. Oh well back to the drawing board.

          3. David Silver

            Ive been watching ATVI’s rise with the internet gaming phenomena with my son and all the neighborhood friends for quite some time now.

    1. AlexP

      absolutely!
      target = just below 98 for USX

      just wait for Yellen to deliver her talking today and you’ll see USX diving and gold shining above 1100 😉

      moment to buy USD is tomorrow after market reaction to EU GDP reports also based on how the mrkt reacts

  5. David Silver

    Wow gold sure did a 180! Bummers.
    NTES should now be in a bonafide breakout.
    Crude is a lost cause. Ouch.
    ANGI should trend higher.
    Staying put.

  6. AlexP

    David, what’s wrong with NTES ?!! It acts perfectly, gap-up intact, barely made a low below the prior historical high, all that while broad market is making new lows …
    if you mean that I haven’t bought the stock at the low of the day, then picking lows and highs is not my purpose, just making money long-term 🙂

    1. David Silver

      I love NTES Alex ?.
      I hate the pre market New York MM’s that love to shakeout the weak hands in commodities such as myself. Oh well.

      1. AlexP

        I advise you to buy it, NTES I mean.
        it’s already garnered a volume above the 50dma, i.e. in less than half an hour of trading while having withstood MAGNFICENTLY the initial assault on very low volume, while the “assault” found its low at about the prior historical high anyway 🙂 🙂 and the market was in heavy distribution.

        Also etf XLY for discretionary goods/services SHOWS FANTASTIC RELATIVE STRENGTH !
        This is the place to be!

    1. AlexP

      yes it is.
      but it will be a dead cat bounce to reach 1130 as I said last week
      gold will go above 1100 today (as also mentioned above while gold was getting slammed at 1077 🙂 )

  8. Gary Post author

    I pointed out the divergence in gold indicating that a DCL was near. It looks like it was struck today. We should get a pretty convincing rally for 6-10 days. But because gold didn’t make a lower low and confirm a yearly cycle low I’m afraid we may have one more lower low in Dec. before the final ICL/YCL prints.

    Enjoy the bounce while it lasts.

    1. AlexP

      spot on, Gary!
      though, as you also pointed out last week, this bounce is NOT worth trading — counter-trend trades are too risky

    4. Tushar

      Gary, so this means there are no chances $gold goes back to 1190 whatsoever. Right? Or is there any analysis which could lead us to that outcome? Please shed lights.

      1. Gary Post author

        It could form an early ICL here if the dollar cycle is topping. We’ll just have to see how aggressive gold is in coming out of this DCL to try and determine whether it’s just a temporary bounce out of a DCL or a larger 2-3 month rally out of an ICL. .

  9. Stefan

    Yepp guys I fully agree and I have positioned for the outcome as described above 🙂 1073.40, lets rally …

  10. AlexP

    SPX has already retraced fib-23.6% within its DC.
    though it still has way too go into this DC due to a still strong USX –> due to the strong positive correlation btw the two, first we need to see how much stocks dive on a fall of USX below 98

  12. victor

    Gary, I don’t understand why you filtering my comments so hard ! ? I didn’t write anything that can offend others…, except I mentioned The God one time that may offend you …, I will not do that any more in your blog.

  14. Super Mario

    Still plenty of blood to be shed in commodity land, keep trying to catch these falling knives though.

    Once the FANG bubble pops it will get seriously ugly.

  19. JT

    While it’s nice to see the USD get beat down, IMHO Gold will need one heck of a light Retail Sales report to reclaim $1100 tomorrow. Not particularly optimistic on that outcome.

  21. AlexP

    got it wrong on gold but correct in stocks and usd, so, David you were right: Ive got it 2/3
    it is interesting that gold got slammed as USD decisively commenced its DC decline …
    This proves once again that: INDEED ONE SHOULD NEVER TRADE COUNTER THE MAIN TREND 😉

    tomorrow is the BIIIG DIVE of USD ….you’d better either be in cash or long in some strong leading stocks with the stamina to weather the massive decline ;;)

    good luck tomorrow ! 🙂

  23. David Silver

    Damn the Euro just had a swing low along with yesterday’s Yen signal.
    USD rolling over again.
    Time for gold to shine.
    Apparently crude is on another plane.

    1. Gary Post author

      I would be nervous about crude following stocks down into their DCL. Also crude has formed a failed daily cycle by breaking below the previous DCL.

      1. David Silver

        Appreciate the warning Mr. Savavge!
        I’m actually short as of midday today.
        Was short last Friday then cocered late Monday only to reshort it Wednesday at the open to covering at the close. I then tried to be a hero God by going long then only to be an idiot to cover at the open!
        Man only if I go back in time or be one with having a crystal ball mystique like yourself. I now see your caution in the stock market
        I also wish I held my last night’s long position in miners instead of freaking out at the open as the New York market makers accomplised.
        I am my own worse enemy my friend!
        At any rate short 100% crude.
        As always you’re the king of kings IMO.

  26. Anthonyo

    As I have been saying for 3 months, I hold:

    Gold has a rendez-vous with a 3-digit price between now though March 2016.

    Oil has a date with $35 or lower in same time frame.

    Thank you. Sorry bulls, your time will come but not yet. Now be good boys and sell.

    1. Simo83

      50 years of cumulated inflation can’t disapper. If this support does not hold I want to see dow jones to 3000-ish

  28. Hong Bang

    Trond
    I think sooner than later central banks around the world will apt for more QE. So weakness in commodities is really somthing to cheer & looking for opportunities investing in mining & agricultural companies.

    Happy investing

  29. AlexP

    weakness now in commodities is disinflationary not deflationary and this situation is a QE killer.
    Only a credit crunch somewhere in the world could instill deflationary expectations that would put QE back in the books but the easing of commodities under way is beneficial for world economy, for stocks and shatters QE expectations –> after all, a central banker thinks: “lower commodities prices now means added inflationary pressures next year or in two as prices cyclically start going up again …. so why should I print money again now as long as there is no credit liquidity crunch ?!!”

    USD is in bull while gold will continue lower before bottoming.

    Now: with EU GDP reports behind, USX is moving back lower to accomplish its cyclical responsibilities; stocks to take the last deep hit today (DCL in SPX will not come today but late next week though but strongest stocks will bottom today)

    1. Herman

      AlexP,
      its appears to me that USX has great difficulty to back lower much. Is there a possiblity of an extremely left-translated DCL, also given weak EU GDP and US Retail?

  30. Hong Bang

    You see Japan Alex. The US is in the same road !!!

    QE is for issuing new debts to pay or roll-over old debts.

    Investinf is the game multi-dimensional, so we have to see it with capital flow, TA, Cycle… all combination.

    Thanks

    1. AlexP

      US is not on the same public debt road as Japan: US government has deleveraged during the last 2 years in relative terms, i.e. while consolidated public debt still increased it did so at a lower speed than that of GDP.

      You are right about Japan and it may well be the cause of the next world recession but until then ….. JPY’s secular bear market is here (William posted a monthly chart of USDJPY) and it stands ready to breakout further –> this effect of Abe’s monetary policy (BOJ has effectively lost its independence from the Government since Abe is incumbent) alongside lower commodity prices will give Japan some space to prolong its disaster, Japan’s fallout is NOT imminent.

  31. zkotpen

    AlexP,

    Actually, I don’t think you were wrong on your gold predictions from last weekend at all. Price appears to have unfolded close to how you said — it’s just taken longer than you expected.

    As for the bounce in gold, I would say 1130 is a but much. 24% or 38% retracements are more likely — mid-1115-20 area. Or just around 1100.

    1. AlexP

      Hi, Z ! yes, it is possible. It also depends on USD, if it lags by the daily cycle upward trendline until FOMC minutes or If decides to dive today below 98.
      If the former, then gold may still have some space to maneuver upwards.

      What USD does will also affect stocks as they gravitate towards the DCL next week.

      I would prefer the latter scenario because it would lend some room for institutions’ shakeouts –> the kind of environment where I like most to buy leading stocks

  32. AlexP

    …there is an old rhetoric of advisers/gurus which now I think is deeply anachronistic, such as:
    – “US debt is skyrocketing, hence doom’s day is close”;
    – “US government is stupid an corrupt so all it will do is to debase USD to pay up its debt via the covert tax called inflation”
    – “with such evil leaders and with USD in the bushes the only escape is GOOOLD to become 4000…5000…god knows maybe even 7000”

    all this rhetoric is all dumpish bla-bla. All technical and fundamental data show the opposite.
    It is normal to so because it was a legitimate talk cause by the effects of the last Kondratieff winter but now…that we are in the spring of a new multi-decade cycle, it is …old… talking (to employ a neutral adjective 🙂 )

    1. AlexP

      it may not be incidental that gold peaked in 2011, a time when Hong Kong at least complained that it had run out of gold vaults, that it had had to start investing in new vault capacity due to the fantastic investment demand for the physical bullion.
      It was also at that time that the USD-debasement, US-leadership corruption and inevitable wealth stealing talking skyrocketed to its peak.

      Now we still are on psychological inertia of those times …

  34. Tech_trac

    As I mentioned weeks ago. overhead congestion analysis portends of many more weeks (18?) of accumulation seems reasonable before a real bottom is confirmed…. And if commodities continue to fall, it will come from lower levels.
    Only Safe Haven Premium keeps AU above its CVAu of $978.00

    1. AlexP

      …after so much selling and with oscillators so oversold, SPX is sure to deliver its lower low, i.e. its DCL on next Thursday/Friday and produce BULLISH DIVERGENCES with oscillators 🙂

      but until FOMC minutes on Wednesday SPX should start rebounding to cool off a bit those oscillators

    2. David Silver

      ANGI: Her poison is her 26% collective short interest (again wished I held my open and 2nd tranche position) nonetheless got in good today. Not to mention a concrete base buyout via $8.75.

      Crude: Eventual target of $32.99 (obvious gyrations but no savior passage @ $37.75 as most think).

      Miners: Houston we are completing launch preparation procedures.

  39. larry

    The 5 hr daily rsi(14)/price large divergence just kicked in on gdx….on daily leg d down may be the swing low….Importantly on 5 period daily there was a 7th wave down at g….13.79 is now the critical price resistance to break….macd and s.s. still not confirming ….daily macd still wide beta and is of concern….13.91 8ema would be interesting to gap above Monday….

  40. larry

    the choppiness indicator is way below lower threshold…this can portend trend reversals or consolidations…..

    Short term price oscillator has reversed off high level top

  42. Super Mario

    Yeah piss off Plunge Protection team with that attempted stick save intraday – just let it crash and burn already so we’re not doomed to a generational recession like Japan. Commodities are screaming deflationary crash ahead.

  49. William

    And to my surprise, the yellow metal hasn’t exhibited even just a bit of its safe-haven status, given the state of the world we are in today!

    1. David Silver

      William one must think Sunday a gap down in crude with a gap up in gold as well as a gap down in futures for the US markets with a gap down open to Mr. Savages 50% FIB then reverse in due time.

    2. JT

      I’m all for making a buck on gold when things turn south, but not so much when it comes to what’s going on in France.

      And to complicate matters, this may be a negative for EURUSD, which doesn’t help our PMs in USD.

      1. David Silver

        I have to disagree. One would imagine your national currency would only strengthen due to the flight to safety/quality phenomenon:A flight-to-quality is a financial market phenomenon occurring when investors sell what they perceive to be higher-risk investments and purchase safer investments, such as US Treasuries or gold. This is considered a sign of fear in the marketplace, as investors seek less risk in exchange for lower profits.

        Flight-to-quality is usually accompanied by an increase in demand for assets that are government-backed and a decline in demand for assets backed by private agents.

        9/11 wiped about a quarter of my assets back then. It’s the risk we all take.

        This could very well topple the USD’s fate.

        1. JT

          Well, I hope you’re right on EURUSD. I fear that the further fracturing of Europe will be a drag on the currency pair. LePen will most certainly be pushing for France to exit, and she may well get elected.

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