Strictly Necessary Cookie should be enabled at all times so that we can save your preferences for cookie settings.
If you disable this cookie, we will not be able to save your preferences. This means that every time you visit this website you will need to enable or disable cookies again.
Continue to wait for the swing on gold before trying to trade the bounce. An even safer play is to wait for a weekly swing to signal the intermediate bottom.
Gary… Alex is saying its a dead cat and not any intermediate- or thats my understanding…
Overnight trading both just confirmed that, ouch. Guess the only savipr in crude is the latest weekly supply data out veey soon.
King dollar needed to come to their rescue.
Nice stock Alex in NTES. Thinking of dabbling into ANGI myself because of hwr story.
Thanks Mr. Savage for watching our back as always.
Crude could be printing another undercut low perhaps in which the tell is the market makers have taken ber down pre market New York.
ouch! ANGI looks too risky for my appetite
it has shown no relative strength so far 🙁
it doesn’t mean it cannot make a tremendous story … but I am too fearful a person 🙂 I prefer getting into a stock that already has a love story with Lady Market and continues confirming it – sheer momentum trading on my side
Really like your selection in NTES! Still deliberating what to do here pre market.
🙂 thank you, David!
Already in profit with my NTES
NTES has come on extraordinary sales advance + positive non-gaap eps after 2 quarters that had come in bad.
there have been stocks this earnings season that have blasted (eg, STMP) for less shiner momentum in fundamentals.
But room for surprise is still there –> RUBI had great sales advance too + fabulous non-gaap eps jump but all that for nothing.
By the way of ANGI, this kind of RUBI-like risk exists with stocks that have not yet come in loving terms with the market.
Yes indeed sir.
Going to cash out of my commodities debacle od yesteeday, guess in hindsight should’ve stayed put or did the opposite.
Gonna take a stab Alex at your NTES as well.
Man i just screwed up big time on my USD vision i.e. commodities hero trade yesterday. Oh well back to the drawing board.
Ive been watching ATVI’s rise with the internet gaming phenomena with my son and all the neighborhood friends for quite some time now.
Thanks Gary !
is this DCL in the dollar even going to happen? I wonder…
target = just below 98 for USX
just wait for Yellen to deliver her talking today and you’ll see USX diving and gold shining above 1100 😉
moment to buy USD is tomorrow after market reaction to EU GDP reports also based on how the mrkt reacts
Wow gold sure did a 180! Bummers.
NTES should now be in a bonafide breakout.
Crude is a lost cause. Ouch.
ANGI should trend higher.
David, what’s wrong with NTES ?!! It acts perfectly, gap-up intact, barely made a low below the prior historical high, all that while broad market is making new lows …
if you mean that I haven’t bought the stock at the low of the day, then picking lows and highs is not my purpose, just making money long-term 🙂
I love NTES Alex ?.
I hate the pre market New York MM’s that love to shakeout the weak hands in commodities such as myself. Oh well.
I advise you to buy it, NTES I mean.
it’s already garnered a volume above the 50dma, i.e. in less than half an hour of trading while having withstood MAGNFICENTLY the initial assault on very low volume, while the “assault” found its low at about the prior historical high anyway 🙂 🙂 and the market was in heavy distribution.
Also etf XLY for discretionary goods/services SHOWS FANTASTIC RELATIVE STRENGTH !
This is the place to be!
1074 in gold tested and HELD. Could this be the start of the corrective rally ?
yes it is.
but it will be a dead cat bounce to reach 1130 as I said last week
gold will go above 1100 today (as also mentioned above while gold was getting slammed at 1077 🙂 )
Incredible call Alex, totally opposite of Mr. Savage. Now only if I slept in, damnit me.
I pointed out the divergence in gold indicating that a DCL was near. It looks like it was struck today. We should get a pretty convincing rally for 6-10 days. But because gold didn’t make a lower low and confirm a yearly cycle low I’m afraid we may have one more lower low in Dec. before the final ICL/YCL prints.
Enjoy the bounce while it lasts.
spot on, Gary!
though, as you also pointed out last week, this bounce is NOT worth trading — counter-trend trades are too risky
Gary so you and doc are on the same page…
Nice call tulip in crude.
Thats true, great call as well!
Gary, so this means there are no chances $gold goes back to 1190 whatsoever. Right? Or is there any analysis which could lead us to that outcome? Please shed lights.
It could form an early ICL here if the dollar cycle is topping. We’ll just have to see how aggressive gold is in coming out of this DCL to try and determine whether it’s just a temporary bounce out of a DCL or a larger 2-3 month rally out of an ICL. .
Yepp guys I fully agree and I have positioned for the outcome as described above 🙂 1073.40, lets rally …
SPX has already retraced fib-23.6% within its DC.
though it still has way too go into this DC due to a still strong USX –> due to the strong positive correlation btw the two, first we need to see how much stocks dive on a fall of USX below 98
I’m in NTES at 157.50/50 shares. Thanks Alex
Gary, I don’t understand why you filtering my comments so hard ! ? I didn’t write anything that can offend others…, except I mentioned The God one time that may offend you …, I will not do that any more in your blog.
I don’t know why the filters keep catching your comments. It isn’t me.
Classic violent short squeeze in metals and miners this morning.
Still plenty of blood to be shed in commodity land, keep trying to catch these falling knives though.
Once the FANG bubble pops it will get seriously ugly.
Added 2nd tranche ANGI
Short crude (duh) ?
Doubled down here at crude peak short.
Sold all ANGI for proceeds.
Rick Ackerman has been calling for $29 Oil for 2 years and looks like we will be going there.
The cyclical analysis of Gary seems to be correct.
While it’s nice to see the USD get beat down, IMHO Gold will need one heck of a light Retail Sales report to reclaim $1100 tomorrow. Not particularly optimistic on that outcome.
retails in the tank
Yeah, but will the ‘official’ reports show it. Much like the hyped jobs report last Friday.
got it wrong on gold but correct in stocks and usd, so, David you were right: Ive got it 2/3
it is interesting that gold got slammed as USD decisively commenced its DC decline …
This proves once again that: INDEED ONE SHOULD NEVER TRADE COUNTER THE MAIN TREND 😉
tomorrow is the BIIIG DIVE of USD ….you’d better either be in cash or long in some strong leading stocks with the stamina to weather the massive decline ;;)
good luck tomorrow ! 🙂
Shorted the heck out of crude as I should’ve done a mere 24 hours ago?
oh, forgot noticing: the EXHAUSTION GAP on OCT23 has just got filled 😉
Damn the Euro just had a swing low along with yesterday’s Yen signal.
USD rolling over again.
Time for gold to shine.
Apparently crude is on another plane.
I would be nervous about crude following stocks down into their DCL. Also crude has formed a failed daily cycle by breaking below the previous DCL.
Appreciate the warning Mr. Savavge!
I’m actually short as of midday today.
Was short last Friday then cocered late Monday only to reshort it Wednesday at the open to covering at the close. I then tried to be a hero God by going long then only to be an idiot to cover at the open!
Man only if I go back in time or be one with having a crystal ball mystique like yourself. I now see your caution in the stock market
I also wish I held my last night’s long position in miners instead of freaking out at the open as the New York market makers accomplised.
I am my own worse enemy my friend!
At any rate short 100% crude.
As always you’re the king of kings IMO.
Gary, do you expect now the dollar go to parity with the euro??
Is this gorilla resistance too-much-a-burden for the USD to bear? As this is a monthly chart, we shall see a firm resolution in coming months…
As I have been saying for 3 months, I hold:
Gold has a rendez-vous with a 3-digit price between now though March 2016.
Oil has a date with $35 or lower in same time frame.
Thank you. Sorry bulls, your time will come but not yet. Now be good boys and sell.
A 60 year chart of the commodity index below. As visible, it is now on a multi-decade support zone.
Because of the pop up to that zone ‘almost in an instant’ in 1973-74 there is almost no support until the 1972 level..Therefore there is a theoretical-technical risk of a dramatic decline if the 2001 bottom gives way.
50 years of cumulated inflation can’t disapper. If this support does not hold I want to see dow jones to 3000-ish
I think sooner than later central banks around the world will apt for more QE. So weakness in commodities is really somthing to cheer & looking for opportunities investing in mining & agricultural companies.
weakness now in commodities is disinflationary not deflationary and this situation is a QE killer.
Only a credit crunch somewhere in the world could instill deflationary expectations that would put QE back in the books but the easing of commodities under way is beneficial for world economy, for stocks and shatters QE expectations –> after all, a central banker thinks: “lower commodities prices now means added inflationary pressures next year or in two as prices cyclically start going up again …. so why should I print money again now as long as there is no credit liquidity crunch ?!!”
USD is in bull while gold will continue lower before bottoming.
Now: with EU GDP reports behind, USX is moving back lower to accomplish its cyclical responsibilities; stocks to take the last deep hit today (DCL in SPX will not come today but late next week though but strongest stocks will bottom today)
its appears to me that USX has great difficulty to back lower much. Is there a possiblity of an extremely left-translated DCL, also given weak EU GDP and US Retail?
You see Japan Alex. The US is in the same road !!!
QE is for issuing new debts to pay or roll-over old debts.
Investinf is the game multi-dimensional, so we have to see it with capital flow, TA, Cycle… all combination.
US is not on the same public debt road as Japan: US government has deleveraged during the last 2 years in relative terms, i.e. while consolidated public debt still increased it did so at a lower speed than that of GDP.
You are right about Japan and it may well be the cause of the next world recession but until then ….. JPY’s secular bear market is here (William posted a monthly chart of USDJPY) and it stands ready to breakout further –> this effect of Abe’s monetary policy (BOJ has effectively lost its independence from the Government since Abe is incumbent) alongside lower commodity prices will give Japan some space to prolong its disaster, Japan’s fallout is NOT imminent.
Actually, I don’t think you were wrong on your gold predictions from last weekend at all. Price appears to have unfolded close to how you said — it’s just taken longer than you expected.
As for the bounce in gold, I would say 1130 is a but much. 24% or 38% retracements are more likely — mid-1115-20 area. Or just around 1100.
Hi, Z ! yes, it is possible. It also depends on USD, if it lags by the daily cycle upward trendline until FOMC minutes or If decides to dive today below 98.
If the former, then gold may still have some space to maneuver upwards.
What USD does will also affect stocks as they gravitate towards the DCL next week.
I would prefer the latter scenario because it would lend some room for institutions’ shakeouts –> the kind of environment where I like most to buy leading stocks
…there is an old rhetoric of advisers/gurus which now I think is deeply anachronistic, such as:
– “US debt is skyrocketing, hence doom’s day is close”;
– “US government is stupid an corrupt so all it will do is to debase USD to pay up its debt via the covert tax called inflation”
– “with such evil leaders and with USD in the bushes the only escape is GOOOLD to become 4000…5000…god knows maybe even 7000”
all this rhetoric is all dumpish bla-bla. All technical and fundamental data show the opposite.
It is normal to so because it was a legitimate talk cause by the effects of the last Kondratieff winter but now…that we are in the spring of a new multi-decade cycle, it is …old… talking (to employ a neutral adjective 🙂 )
it may not be incidental that gold peaked in 2011, a time when Hong Kong at least complained that it had run out of gold vaults, that it had had to start investing in new vault capacity due to the fantastic investment demand for the physical bullion.
It was also at that time that the USD-debasement, US-leadership corruption and inevitable wealth stealing talking skyrocketed to its peak.
Now we still are on psychological inertia of those times …
Don’t [email protected]@k now, but Krugman is worried. Will the Federal Reserve’s printing press be taken away by a a Republican win? A Cruz/Rubio ticket and win is all it would take! ??
As I mentioned weeks ago. overhead congestion analysis portends of many more weeks (18?) of accumulation seems reasonable before a real bottom is confirmed…. And if commodities continue to fall, it will come from lower levels.
Only Safe Haven Premium keeps AU above its CVAu of $978.00
Do you think gold is on the way to one of those late nite or early morn attacks?
55.4% leaden with stocks, rest=cash
…after so much selling and with oscillators so oversold, SPX is sure to deliver its lower low, i.e. its DCL on next Thursday/Friday and produce BULLISH DIVERGENCES with oscillators 🙂
but until FOMC minutes on Wednesday SPX should start rebounding to cool off a bit those oscillators
80.8% stocks, rest=cash to be invested later next week @DCL
I am a little confused, should USX bought now or wait longer into next week?
it should be waited for DCL next week into Wednesday’s FOMC minutes
Added ANGI on a FIB limit (20%)
Holding short crude (80%)
Should’ve bought miners at open
Adding 10% to miners on expected breakout (should’ve kept from Wed).
ANGI: Her poison is her 26% collective short interest (again wished I held my open and 2nd tranche position) nonetheless got in good today. Not to mention a concrete base buyout via $8.75.
Crude: Eventual target of $32.99 (obvious gyrations but no savior passage @ $37.75 as most think).
Miners: Houston we are completing launch preparation procedures.
The 5 hr daily rsi(14)/price large divergence just kicked in on gdx….on daily leg d down may be the swing low….Importantly on 5 period daily there was a 7th wave down at g….13.79 is now the critical price resistance to break….macd and s.s. still not confirming ….daily macd still wide beta and is of concern….13.91 8ema would be interesting to gap above Monday….
the choppiness indicator is way below lower threshold…this can portend trend reversals or consolidations…..
Short term price oscillator has reversed off high level top
gdx..Slow stoch buy signal is now macd confirmed! on 2 hr daily chart
….leg A up over 13.79!
Yeah piss off Plunge Protection team with that attempted stick save intraday – just let it crash and burn already so we’re not doomed to a generational recession like Japan. Commodities are screaming deflationary crash ahead.
Simply poetry in motion:
An island reversal would be oh-so-sweet next week.
One can dream anyways….
I don’t know Larry read Hubbartt on 321gold
Added another long tranche of miners here at the close.
Just a tip, a free one, but a good one. Buy stock on Monday. Hold until 2018.
Happy Friday the 13th all!
Huge news for China: http://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2015/11/13/chinas-currency-gets-key-backing-from-imf
There u go!!!
who says china will be voted in…???
Tulip it’s a shoe in. One must be wise to ride the Shanghai when the S&P bottoms, i know I will.
And to my surprise, the yellow metal hasn’t exhibited even just a bit of its safe-haven status, given the state of the world we are in today!
William one must think Sunday a gap down in crude with a gap up in gold as well as a gap down in futures for the US markets with a gap down open to Mr. Savages 50% FIB then reverse in due time.
I’m all for making a buck on gold when things turn south, but not so much when it comes to what’s going on in France.
And to complicate matters, this may be a negative for EURUSD, which doesn’t help our PMs in USD.
I have to disagree. One would imagine your national currency would only strengthen due to the flight to safety/quality phenomenon:A flight-to-quality is a financial market phenomenon occurring when investors sell what they perceive to be higher-risk investments and purchase safer investments, such as US Treasuries or gold. This is considered a sign of fear in the marketplace, as investors seek less risk in exchange for lower profits.
Flight-to-quality is usually accompanied by an increase in demand for assets that are government-backed and a decline in demand for assets backed by private agents.
9/11 wiped about a quarter of my assets back then. It’s the risk we all take.
This could very well topple the USD’s fate.
Well, I hope you’re right on EURUSD. I fear that the further fracturing of Europe will be a drag on the currency pair. LePen will most certainly be pushing for France to exit, and she may well get elected.
Black swan events are always a possibility that have been seen over time.
And, China’s margin debt is coming for the “rescue” again???
Alex, I thought we were in a Kond.winter.. where do you get Spring from…?
3-digit gold still in the cards.
I’m calculating a 4th quarter run to 1160 then south to 1025 bottom 2016.
David, when is the bottom in your assessment? March 2016?
Mid Feb 2016 topping action then mid Oct 2016 bottoming process.
Based on timing bands.
Wow your cycle bottom could go all the way to Oct 2016? Long journey. I hope we get the bottom sooner and be done with it.
We all can make money both ways my friend.
Yes I know I have been short for 2 months now gold and silver. Looking for a bottom this month or by April 2016.
******************** Solidarité **********************
Down with Islamist Fascism.