I explain how and why I think the gold bear market is artificial, and due to manipulation by a few big banks in the paper market. I discuss the market reaction that will confirm I’m correct. The analysts that for a couple of years have been trying to deny manipulation are ultimately going to look like idiots, and the Sinclairs of the world are going to have the last laugh, and will be proven correct in the end.
Smart Money Tracker
“The analysts that for a couple of years having been trying to deny manipulation are ultimately going to look like idiots and the Sinclairs of the world are going to have the last laugh and will be proven correct in the end.”
This is perfect for the diatribe between Avi Gilbert and Gata!!!!!!! 🙂
If you will be right Gary,this site will become very popular!!!
I guarantee I’m right on this one.
I’m sure your right, but all the evidence is there now and nobody (outside of goldbugs) seems to care, what changes?
Absolutely, you are, Gary.
And re: Sinclair, he has never backed off his stance for a moment. Even Richard Russell, the greatly respected author of Dow Theory Letters who sadly recently passed, and whom, along with Sinclair, I followed since getting into the gold market 15 yrs ago, joined the manipulation camp several years ago. He said it could no longer be denied, as there was no other explanation.
Personally, I was in the GATA camp from the get-go and surprised that R-man took as long as he did to come around to it. He also predicted that “hard rain is going to fall”, and Gary has been saying that, too. The longer these fools keep propping up these markets, the worse it’s going to be when it’s no longer sustainable.
Keep up the great work, Gary! You have validated a lot of what I learned from Sinclair and Russell (and my own intuition) and taught me a lot, too. Thank you.
the site is already a gem among others…, I’ve been there long enough to see..
what I find illogical is that Moriarty claims all mtks are manipulated.. but is adamant about gold not being…. many do not follow gata and still believe gold is manipulated by the big banks-
“This site will become very popular” — It already is.
And yet some people on this blog continue to argue the obvious in the most stubborn and skeptical way possible, Lol!
I can’t say this enough for all of you traders out there [experienced or just getting started]. Understanding market fundamentals and people psychology will take your trading/investment strategy to a whole new level of awesome 🙂 I’m aroused just thinking about it.
Muffin: Are you a relative or close friend to Gary?
agree. this forecast goes hand-in-hand with mine with the only exception, as I mentioned last week and about 3 weeks ago, that gold would see its bottom (potentially the bear market bottom) in MARCH, as USX finds its 3-year cycle high
– on expectations of further FED hikes and
– on ECB’s increasing its QWE gun to EUR 75bn or so.
Alex, thanks to your input I’m successfully closed SPX Vix shrts and running long SPX with VIX, going to close it tomorrow looking to short it again…
Dear, Victor:)
We are thought-to-thought (an ad-litteram translation from Romanian to English…) –> this is why I’ve entered the blog now, even though it’s 1 am here in Bucharest.
Just as you say, I also feel time is getting ripe for a stocks’ short trade 🙂 except that in order to make it safe I look for 2 things before giving the signal: some more cooling of oscillators and a fools’ UPTHRUST.
Absent these 2 ingredients, I would rather skip the trade, it would simply not bring the odds to the HIGH critical level I enjoy to have.
PS: Anyway…now that I am putting my money into Romanian real estate it is such a bore being again into excel “trading” and not having real money at stake !!! I’d open a trifle account of some USD 1000 but that would leave trading limited products and also highly leveraged, much above my risk appetite. But it’s worth it, Romanian real estate is getting dirty cheap and it cannot stay that way for too long, even with a US recession in 2017-2018
Hey Alex, I recall you ( aswell as others) have been mentioning early jan, around the 8th as a swing day. Was this still in play?
YES, it is in play.
The only thing to have aborted it would have been a min-crash on Monday to some 1920 for SPX. That would have produced a shortened daily cycle, but it was not the case though.
Thus we are in the same failed daily cycle waiting for a resolution of SPX down to minimum 1920 by JAN8.
also, I know you didn’t read it ;
December 17, 2015 at 5:34 pm
Sorry, can’t add/share anything to your market knowledge ( night job + two grandkids) gives me little time to study anything. But, in 5yrs trading I started feel more/less market pulse (not like you of course) that’s why I traded gold up to FOMS day, good, sold it just before the Foms release.
I copy-paste your market projections for future reference. Your vision require many years trading and sweat and loses + things that a few can have given by nature. Thank you very much Alex for sharing. “
I haven’t read it before, indeed, Victor. Thank you! I do my best to bring the best input I can.
Now that I am out of market effectively, if you consider a medium-term investment to start buying, take a look at SLP – Simulation Plus. They are to start selling a new software in January that will propel their revenues and net income. They also pay a dividends twice a year too.
But pay attention to its high volatility and relative small liquidity! It must be bought in small increments as the price progresses starting with the ICL in stocks around JAN8. I would personally not buy more than 7% of my equity in the first trade at ICL.
So, you have 2 grandkids! That’s so nice 🙂 I have one daughter of 2 years and a half and one boy on his road. The girl is a Taurus and the boy will be in Aries while both my wife and I are in Gemini (the sign of finance people and of cheaters 🙂 ). We will have many horns to fight with domestically 🙂
Good luck with the short stocks to come, Victor!
Thanks for your post Gary.
This time I am with you and just want to say that you are improving your videos …
I agree and the audio is a little better.. good work Gary
This recent article explains the recent progression of modern Gold Alchemy pretty good;
http://secularinvestor.com/when-gold-vaults-run-empty-why-does-the-price-of-gold-stay-low/12642/?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=when-gold-vaults-run-empty-why-does-the-price-of-gold-stay-low
Gary says Gold might go lower in middle of 2016 as its final low? I thought earlier he said Gold must end its bear market low at the end of the year? I guess I’m confused on that.
I do agree that gold manipulation is part of the bigger scheme of making believe that the Fed intervention is working. That includes manipulation of data about the economy and the investment markets. The reality will in the end prevail: the economy will tank and corporations will see profits crumbling (it’s already happening). The following crash and bear market will set free gold which will resume its bull market with incredible momentum, since it will be the last safe heaven left.
In your previous post you said gold isn’t doing anything unusual and now you talk about manipulation???
A few people were claiming that gold was in a new secular bear market. I disagree. Even with the manipulation gold ins’t doing anything that suggests this is anything other than a cyclical bear market within the time frame of a longer secular bull market.
Gold is manipulated. So what.
The fed buys ES futures and as you say, rescues the market.
The opportunity cost of trying to pick a bottom in gold for the last few years is unmeasurable.
Find a up or down trending market, latch on and make some dough.
What would you suggest is trending right now? I’m not seeing anything.
Gold and miners.
Down
If I was in gold using my method I would have bailed the end of February 2013 when price closed below the 10 month SMA. No, that is not trading in hindsight. That is what I do in trending markets.
http://tinyurl.com/zejzqzk
Crude forward month adjustment changed technicals:
Friday closed $34.78 (held intraday lows since last Monday/bullish/lower wedge trendline held)
Monday open $36.06 (same ratio but 3.68% difference)
Charting altered from bearish to bullish
Screwed me up because I went long Friday based on technicals only to be confused Monday @ open (flipped short in reality should’ve held long)
Monday and today UP (further solidifying theory)
Wednesday open?
Crude forward month adjustment changed technicals:
Friday closed $34.78 (held intraday lows since last Monday/bullish/lower wedge trendline held)
Monday open $36.06 (same ratio but 3.68% difference)
Charting altered from bearish to bullish
Screwed me up because I went long Friday based on technicals only to be confused Monday @ open (flipped short in reality should’ve held long)
Monday and today UP (further solidifying theory)
Wednesday open?
35.55 line in sand will be the tell.
Hold then $43.54 minimum
Break then $27.14
Bull timeband lapse (Jan 29 – Feb 5)
Bear timeband lapse (Jan 22nd)
June 18 2016 end of wave 3 or 5?
Man I’ve had a terrible past month trading crude accuratley (just do the opposite stupid)
Mr. Savage’s USD downtrend timeband cycle to end mid January right in line with my timeband expiration.
Commodities adversely affected?
Gold and silver is in a spot where it seasonally drop $10-$20 to retest the lows and shake people out during late December.
Written by Jeff Clark from Hard Assets Alliance:
*Are investors buying or selling?
Despite the drop in price, US Mint sales of silver Eagles are at record levels, ETF holdings have risen, and mints have difficulty sourcing enough silver blanks to produce coins.
*Are industrial uses growing or shrinking?
Industrial uses is the biggest part of demand, and industry experts projects that total industrial demand for silver will grow faster than global economies.
*What is the season?
Silver prices tend to be high January through May, and low in the summer and fall (and thus the best time to buy).
*What is the gold/silver ratio?
The average gold/silver ratio is 60, so a 70 reading or higher implies silver is deeply undervalued, while 40 or below means it is overvalued relative to gold.
*What is silver’s share of global wealth?
Silver’s share of global wealth implies it is fairly undervalued in 2014 (the latest data available). The silver price has moved lower in 2015, implying it is now undervalued.
*Are silver inventories rising or falling?
Government silver inventories have fallen 73% since 1996. Total inventories from all sources equal just 25% of one year’s supply, showing silver is undervalued.
Long story short: Buy Silver coins and stop your whining 🙂
Gold should have never broke the April 2013 line in the sand. It should have gone sideways there in consolidation. That was the one that shouted it from the roof tops and you are correct Gary.
I never see this getting out though at an institutional level. It will either react quickly and violently and be conveniently forgotten there on after, or the blame will be pinned again (as with Barclays) on a rogue trader/team.
The class action lawsuits that would follow any LIBOR type discovery would bring down many if not all your big US/EU banks caught in this crime.
Looking at DXY’s monthly chart, hoping the dollar can rally a bit more to close the month at or above 99 mark. Then, we would have a wonderful monthly “hang-man” to do justice for all the gold bugs!!!
Is that gonna be the Christmas & new year gift for all?
And, Dave, the Chinese’ breakout (Xinhua A50) on weekly chart is for real but hope that it won’t break-down. The saving grace would be when its monthly candle-stick could also breakout in January…its December’s candle-stick is right on the vertical resistance now!
Stay watching…
Oh well, as soon as i said the breakout is for real, today’s closing came in with a daily ‘shooting star’…no good at all!
Personally I don’t give a rats arse if the gold Market is manipulated, as all markets are to some extent. All I care about is being on the right side of the trade. I agree with a certain person who is seen as the anti Christ on here, who states that its possible to influence short term direction, but not create a bear market. You have to ask why analysts predicted $1000 gold and $12 silver in 2011, are they working for the “dark forces”…”those in control”….”they,,,(the most commonly used), or did they look at the long term gold chart and see a way over bought market.. Fact is gold bugs are crying into their bedtime milk as they refuse to take an impartial position on gold and treat it like any other market, which it is. The manipulation articles always follow the falls , because the price doesn’t behave inline with their sophisticated philosophy. MANIPULATION I TELL YOU!!!!
I’ve seen tons of analysts claim to have predicted the drop in gold, but every one of them was long after the market had already been falling for a long time. Just as an example; Armstrong claims to have predicted the top. Actually in 2011 he was predicting that gold would be at $5000 by 2015.
None of this means one can’t make money in the metals. Just try to catch some of the rally out of intermediate cycle lows and then get back on the sidelines and wait out the next attack.
Gold is being set up for another attack this spring. That doesn’t mean it won’t rally into late January, but one has to get back on the sidelines at that time and get out of the way of the next attack.
agreed on everything you say, Gary, except that gold I think will top in this new IC before mid january, so that by the end of Jan gold will already have been in intermediary cycle decline
on the Armstrong thing I have no opinion because I do not know the guy, I do not read his blog.
gay’s best call.. 2011 silver bull
that was amazing
Armstrong named fx person of the year by Fxstreet. Why? Bcos he is good. There’s someone here who said he never answer questions directly about gold. Said he mentioned heading to year end target, but not specifying that target. Well…. Maybe bcos that year end target is only available to subscribers of his service???!!! Lol
cheetah in position to initiate a charge onto a short-stocks trade.
all it needs to see is a fools’ upthrust tomorrow
FTR: @ Open
Long crude till Mid Jan (43.54 min 48.87 max)
Possible bottom 34.53 (fundamental shift
/technical shift)
Crude:
Daily and weekly swing low candles intact
CRB daily swing low candle confirmation and weekly upticking and nearing the same confirmation
Talking heads talking 33 oil
Talking heads talking 28 oil
Talking heads talking 20 oil
No one talking 35 oil
Contarian phenomenon bottom?
Watch for support fallback for answer
Recent technical support zones hold multiple times through grim reports last week gave the nod
Tuesday and Wednesday reports confirmed liftoff fundamemtally
Too many talking heads of doom could be key
Gary:
I am going to assume your manipulation hypothesis is true. If there is manipulation, whoever is doing it has done a good job of it. But for traders and investors in the pm’s, I think the the question we have to ask is what is to prevent them from manipulating down going forward? How can the average investor fight such forces and come out ahead? What is to prevent TPTB from forcing silver back to $5 and gold back to $300?
Why not just look elsewhere for investments?
Thanks,
Jim
Energy trends for example
Still don’t understand the infatuation in metals
Never could figure them out trading-wise
Just play the intermediate rallies until gold gives us the signal that it has broken the manipulation.
Or.. buy a few carefully selected Gold/Silver stocks and hold long term. Silver under $20 is a steal — how is this not obvious people?!
Gold:
1025.25 mid January short-term pivot bottom up
Why trade gold just to earn more paper money? Who wants more paper money when one day it will be worth nothing? I think it makes more sense to buy physical gold and silver and hold it long term. Who wants a bank full of paper money when the shtf and banks go broke and your paper money is worthless?
Agree 100%
Apparently market power and gaming doesn’t count as manipulation to the clever crowd.
Alex, I know you are cock sure bearish after Christmas to early Jan. It should be. But I noticed Europe and US, their macd seems like going to cross upwards. Odds favour very minor drop and bigger continuation rally. I dunno, I better tighten my longs, and day trade only post Christmas.
Monkey God vs Market God. Who knows who gonna be right? I better adopt prudence until more cards come out of the deck
But last year, US also rammed up in December. Macd cut up, shortly crashed down again. Odds favour Monkey God winning Market God. Daily lower low, turn to short bias
i’m no god, there is only one God.
I’m just a guy, a feather in the wind…enjoying the ride while still afloat in the air
i dont know about MACD, i dont like this filter, i’ve never used it.
yes, gold up, usd and stocks down into-year end and further arround JAN8.
Minimum levels to be attained by mid JAN are:
– SPX=1920
– USX = 95.60
Gold to reach its ICH by arround mid JAN at 1155
Here’s the thing
Who cares except those who beleived the pumpers onteh way up and are now down 90%. Just sell so we can back ont eh train. You’re holing up a great trade.
Untile veryone is off smart money can’t get on. (SARC -but really)
I’ve said it a million times and I’ll say it once more. Go to Starbucks, any airport, any hotel, any grocery store. I don’t see gold being traded or sed for currency. In fact – yoru new money is smartphone with a pay application on it. As cash is banned worldwide this will become even more acute.
So what? Your physical is an asset – it is not a currency. Get out of the stone age and face the facts. All that scamming about hyper-inflation this and hyper inflation that lost you a fortune.
Yet you even still bookmark the scammers who fleeced you…… Not Gary. The others who you know well. nothing they forecasted came true.
Before the zombies start calling my brain, listen carefully as I have 40 years experience int his trade. I own a ton of it in coins and silver maples.
These are for bribing the concentration camp guards to get my family out. They are not currency. They are an untraceable medium of exchange in crisis. Those of you who believed the hucksters have been wiped out. That is part of the deal. You play you pay.
Why not simply buy an index after this crash Gary talks about and make money why are you holding out for nothing……
My physical sits in a hidden closet gathering dust so that once this century I get my family out of harms way….
I just don’t get it.
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AlexP,
I see you mention that gold is in a new IC uptrend.
I’m not seeing anything more than a new Daily cycle uptrend…
before one final move down in the intermediate cycle, probably also the yearly cycle.
???
Hi, Z!
No, I do not think there will be any down move in gold into year-end but on the contrary: THIS WEEK WILL DELIVER A WEEKLY SWING LOW signaling the new intermediary cycle
Next week confirmationof new IC will come while gold will also close this year above 1100.
I think gold on 31.12.15 will be about 1115
Merry Christmas, Gary, and to all of you who celebrate it!
My wife, my parents and I are now readying for the party tonight.
Enjoy your time!
Merry Christmas Gary, Alex and the rest of the smart Alec here!!!
Merry Christmas to All of you and wishes of many-many greens in the next year!!!
Have a truly blessed Christmas folks…
Crude Cup and Handle Aleet:
Daily 4 hour chart suggests a break above 37.88 is embarking upon us
41.21 minimum
Shortt squeeze circa August 24th part II emulation at bay
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