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You’re welcome. 😉
Yes indeed, Thanks to Le Fou for this chart.
Actually, I can’t take credit for that chart. Another sub on the premium site posted it a year and a half ago plus or minus. I just saved it and reposted it this week.
Good trading to all,
It only doubled..so this time it goes to 2400 around..??
This rally has been way too powerful to just stop and roll over. Buyers will come in on the dip and make one more higher high before the intermediate cycle tops.
higher than what high Gary??
The high shown on the chart, 1263 on Feb.11.
Looks like the buy signal failed in the 4th quarter of 2012. I assume do to the manipulation. What’s to say it won’t happen again this time too?
In 2013 the Fed needed to do QE3 to keep stocks rising. They didn’t want another inflationary episode like 2008 so they attacked gold to keep commodities in check. Now they need inflation so I don’t really expect anymore serious attacks on gold. Just normal corrective moves in a new bull market.
you have 4 buys on the chart… B & b is there meaning in the capitalized Bs…?
Inflation comes first THEN gold price rises, not vice versa? You canno “create” inflation by “allowing” gold prices to run up. Your logic is flawed.
The Dude was the author if this metric, IIRC.
Ok I’ll be the first to point out the glaringly obvious from the chart. 2013 Buy signal emmmmm!!!!!!!!!
Gary how much of a correction would you get into May? Are you looking at retracement from 1307 back below 1200? thanks
At least 50-62% of the rally.
Time will tell if the long-term buy signal proves a winner, rather than just being another short-term head-fake. My DUST shorts worked great, but now I’m on the sidelines. I will wait for at least a deep correction before I get involved on the long side again for a TRADE….but, from a long-term investement perspective, I still think we will eventually see sub-$1000 in gold, and sub-$10 in $GDX. I’ll be buying hand over fist when that magnitude of metals bloodbath eventually happens. 🙂
….meant to say long-side of GDX for a TRADE, IF we see a deep correction.
I like how your story keeps changing ‘ever so slightly’ Jay boy.. Now it’s your ‘long-term’ investment thesis for GDX, Haha! Ahem, sure buddy…
In the meantime, why don’t you bring your sweaty sausage over to the Bull side and make some money ?
I will, but not until more bulls get stopped out….at a loss! 🙂
Yep. $1000 or lower by June.
If Gold is going to break out of the triangle to the upside next week, then why did the miners take a hard hit to the downside on Friday? WE are to believe that the free market took the miners down Friday just so the miners could bounce back higher on Monday…If BB is still in charge, then we will see more 8000-12,000 gold contact dumps whenever BB chooses to do so.
The end of the month is here…maybe February 29th will end–without an attack coming out of nowhere–with strong follow through to the upside going into March. However, I have seen attacks come before heading into a new month. I hope this time is different. 🙂
Miners are stretched a long way above the 50 DMA. They are going to need a correction soon. They may even follow silver and drop into a DCL Monday and Tuesday, but I think the HUI will ultimately test the 180 level before the intermediate cycle tops.
I always felt a new DCL was in order before kicking off the next leg up, looks like that’s gonna play out after all.. giving some of you an opportunity to get back in and giving me an opportunity to buy the second half of an already existing trade ?
You are walking on thin ice with your charts Gary. Replace the last two Buy with Sell instead. You got the answer for Gold going into March by looking at JPY/USD, a crystal clear double top.
Mid 2012 first chart of Gary…Buy signal See what happened after it? Plummeted.
Besides, right now it is only kissing the moving avg not breaking out….even if breaks out it could only be a tiny spike coming down just as fast to under the red curve
Another Bear has joined the ranks — Welcome 🙂
All long term trends have to generate this golden cross signal.
Gold is in the timing band for an eight year cycle low.
The CRB is extremely deep into the timing band for a 3 YCL.
The CRB isn’t going to go up and leave gold behind.
The eight year cycle low has to occur along with an yearly cycle low and one of those occurred in December.
Gold and miners are doing something they haven’t been able to do in 4 years. Namely they are making higher intermediate highs.
All the signs are there that a bear market bottom has occurred but traders have become so ingrained to expect the bear to continue that they can’t see the change right before their eyes. It’s why they have missed a 65% rally in miners in 4 weeks. Many are shorting gold as a revenge trade because they did miss the move and that is just more fuel for the baby bull.
Don’t get me wrong once the intermediate cycle tops and gold corrects into the intermediate cycle low in May the bears will be out in full force predicting 1000, 900, 600 or whatever silly number they can think of. So they will miss the bottom in May and they will miss the second leg of this new bull market.
Human nature never changes and that’s why 90% of investors always miss the beginning of a bull market. They can’t break the recency bias of the bear market.
Gary my love.. you are fighting against pride and stubbornness — the worst disease of all time 🙂
The Bears will continue to ‘ROOOOOAAAR’ no matter what, Lol!!
Fortunately, have doubles in many small miners bought in mid January. Went in with the mindset to hold them forever but all things considered (cot, seasonals and charts) considering selling half. Too far too fast. The SM also looks suspect. 1600 yet this Spring me thinks. If the SM heads south the PM’s Should soar? Not sure. The smart course is always easiest taken in hindsight.
TA-wise, the PM sector is giving conflicting signals.
$GOLD *does* look like it’s ready to pounce up, as Gary said. And the long term bull cross *is* important.
But $SILVER clearly broke down. Maybe manipulators took silver out this time and not gold?
$HUI looks like it’s making a long rolling top, w/lots of neg divergence as Muff pointed out, and is about to head down.
So, net out, gold up, silver down, GDX down?
So we’ll have to see how this pans out. Gary’s got his cycle magic out in full swing here, so I have a feeling that he’s right and I’m wrong (again!).
This is the first time since the bear began that gold has closed above the 100 week moving average.
One more push next week would allow the XAU to also test the 100 before starting a multi-week correction.
Everyone is expecting gold to drop so this is the perfect scenario to fleece the early shorts and get retail traders to pile in on the long side so smart money can sell their shares to them and get back on the sidelines ahead of the correction.
Most of the articles I read are still bullish on gold.
If spot $GOLD closes above 1240 I’m w/you that gold’s advance is continuing. But if it closes below $1200, then it’s going down just like $SILVER.
And, after reading a bunch of gold bull stuff over the years, no way do I believe that manipulation is over. To me, a sign that it’s over would be $100 gains every day. A real beachball floating to the surface of the water – violent and aggressive. The recent rise in $GOLD was impulsive, but except for the $50 day, it was not all that violent. If the Bullion Banks have lost control of gold, I’d expect to see $1500 and $2000 within a few days. Right now, I think it’s still manipulated, so I am cautious.
And I don’t believe the Fed wants inflation either. Aren’t they now the owners of all that bad housing debt? If int rates rise, they won’t be able to pay the interest. I think they prefer this warm bath of you know what right now, to any rise. The debt is just too big to service.
I sorta 50-50 think that this latest rise in gold is entirely MANUFACTURED. Just like the 4+ yr decline. It’s still tradable, but it’s not real, I think. More and more pundits are coming online on CNBC and Bloomberg speaking about these manipulated markets. The gig is rigged.
But to summarize, overall I’m w/ya Gary. You called the bottom in gold in Dec when everyone was saying we go lower. And you’re the only guy I know who right now is saying to buy GDX and hold it for 5 yrs. And you spotted the higher high in gold before anyone else either. I think I’m just still believing that the markets are manipulated, and so am waiting for a clear swing higher low. I need to see the lows tested before I go all in. But big picture, overall you’ve called all this correctly, and so cudos to you!
I’m going to suggest you change tactics. Buying break outs and selling breakdowns rarely works anymore. Those strategies quit working about a decade ago.
Now you need to buy at bottoms when you are most scared, and sell at tops when you are most bullish.
I cringe when I hear someone say that they will buy once a certain price/ technical level, trend line/ etc. is reached. It just means they are buying into a top more often than not.
In order to make money in modern markets you need to buy at bottoms and sell at tops. The best strategy for doing that that I have found is with cycles. But you also have to allow for market manipulation as well. So I track cycle counts and also try to anticipate when a market intervention will occur.
So for instance everyone is freaking out about silver. If you just use standard charting tools then you have every right to be scared. On the other hand if you add cycles to your tool box you know that silver is 29 days into a DCL and probably due to put in a bottom any day now.
Right now you have big money that bought at the bottom when they manufactured the undercut low will want to manufacture a rally to sell into. To do that they will need gold and miners to make a higher high and sucker in retail traders to “buy the breakout”. They will sell their shares and oz. to the dumb money and get on the sidelines ahead of the intermediate decline.
Then the process will repeat at the next ICL. It will look like gold is heading back into a bear market. Dumb money will sell and smart money will scoop up their shares and oz. at the exact bottom.
”Dumb Money” haha — You know who you are, Lol!
Sorry, couldn’t resist 🙂
Thanks for your contribution Muffin Top.
Sell me your gold. I’m waiting.
So what does silver do since it is almost at a DCL? After it rallys for a couple days with gold to 1300 if this is what gold does, does it go into an ICL with gold? or is it starting an ICL now so best to wait till May for it after it makes an ICL?
Yes I would wait till May to buy silver.
“We’re in hell right now, gentlemen, believe me.”
“We can climb out of hell”
“One inch at a time.”
Love that speech!
Silver’s timing band reflects gold. However it’ still in counter downtrending mindset. POG has bottomed out,
with an entirely different character by price and accumulation. Volumes are saying a lot here across the paper as well as mining signatures. Instead of silver,s developing dcl, gold’s market is accumulating in triangle.
Maria I’m thinking your hoping for your next entry way below this level, instead of way below $1306 ? 🙂
USD/JPY down ,60, gold up 2.67. Still looking for GDD 23-24.
I think you do great work and you have made folks a lot of money who have followed your cycles work.
But your chart has me mystified. The third highlighted “buy” area on the chart in late 2012 shortly-there-after resulted in a massive drop for gold from $1,700 to the $1,100 dollar range.
Help this old dumb country boy out………….how was that a buy signal when you would have took massive losses if you were on the long side of the trade?
What am I missing?
The funny business with gold WILL end because the whole world isn’t just going along to play nice with the US $ game. The new thing is going to be show me the metal. The delusions can continue for a long time but not forever.
Silver is a buy here. If you ever plan on buying physical silver this is a good price. I don’t think you’ll get it this low in May.
Possibly stupid questions, but:
1. Where is a good place to purchase physical silver from?
2. Once you have it do you have to take special measures, like to prevent it from tarnishing?
Don’t worry about tarnish. Tarnish does not decrease the value of silver.
As for where to buy, that depends on where you live. In the U. S., buy at local coin shops. It can also be bought on line, but don’t pay too much over spot price.
Quite happy with JM bullion.
This is the best chart you have ever shown. It clearly shows that even when there are bullish signals(2012), it may not be time to get bullish. Will gold be $1800 or $800 a year from now? In my opinion cash in the bank is best for now.
My guess is $1450ish 🙂 but first, a new low is imminent imho, lets say $1020ish that would surprise many I guess even me haha
most analyst out there say a restorde upturn from 1170-80, a 50% will give us 1150, lets see how it unfolds
I’ve been watching your analyses for the past 4months. I gotta tell you, pretty amazing stuff Gary!
Gary, I think you will have to revise the lower trend line.
As I noted on Wednesday, the consolidation of gold will prove a symmetrical triangle (instead of a pennant) OF WHICH LOWER TREND LINE WILL BE DRAWN AS GOLD REACHES ITS DCL ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
Now I incline the DCL will be reached tomorrow.
So, it is best to still wait before getting on board the long-gold trade.
This analyst clearly thinks differently:
It remains to be seen if we are in bull market and COT reports do less matter or we are still in bear market territory.
Time will tell.
I think I agree, gold and silver are going down in the near future, but wow does this guy “Flip flop”. Check his Title page.
I think short term we have a top in the miners. Based on past history we should expect a pullback.
it will be but it will be short-lived –> tomorrow is the time to buy gold back.
Alex, need to see those staples follow through down now that profit taking occurred at the month’s end. You noted this reversal of defensives on Friday.
Keep an eye on the US dollar . Its been consolidating after its run up over the past year . Everyone flipped bearish on the the dollar these past several months . If it breaks over 100 in March , its going to 107-110 in a couple months . What will gold be doing while that is occurring ?
Regarding the chart that headlined this posting, what exactly is the red line that was crossed to give the long-term buy signal?
Frank, exactly. When it comes to reading COT, I trust Clive maund more than Gary.
And Euro looks like big trouble again. Ie USD going to rally. How will it affect gold? Let’s see. I still think the odds of a down month in March is high for gold.
Of course. I think the key to the future of where gold goes from here thru the early fall 2016 is the US Dollar . If the dollar index breaks the resistance at 100 , it will run to 107-110 by the fall and that will cause the low in gold . If the dollar rolls over in march , you can get Gary’s senario of the bottom in for gold here with some higher lows in gold moving forward
It’s going way down from high’s this morning. Should I sell at open or do you still think it’ll still go up to 1280 – 1307? Thank you!
Gary Gld is up w gdx. Clive maund said that due to COt gold silver n the miners are going to plunge. How come the opposite is happening.
I will never say “I told you so”.