No Gold is going down in March, I think FED has soemthing up their sleeve at next FOMC.
Maybe a low and a buying opportunity, early-mid April.
I am big wave Trading Gold, sometimes bearish, sometimes bullish. For now I am bearish 🙂
********* POSTED EARLIER – THIS IS MY* VIEW *******************
Long term +5years I am very very very Bullish !
Midterm bullishI think second half of 2016 and first half of 2017 has great potential.
I bought Kaminak, ATAC and Victoria in August and in December, sold them last week after a +65% gain in 6months.
Short term I am very Bearish lets say for 1-2months
*EW/Fib-pattern from a friend, to be more specific.
What do you mean ” No ” more like ” I think ” cause if you know for sure, well than put your money where your mouth is.
I get a kick out of some of you posting here…NOTHING IS A SURE THING…EVER!. your just guessing like the rest of us.
There are no sure things in this business.Everyone just has to use the tools they trust to try to give them an edge and hopefully they will win more than they lose.
My tools of choice are cycles, sentiment, a little bit of technicals, and lately I attempt to anticipate when interventions will occur.
That will be very important because if the trend continues down, there will be many interventions along the way and with minimal liquidity, there will be HUGE overnight carry risk because most interventions occur after cash market hours.
Don’t fall in love with gold: short term rising pattern is ending at end of February.
Well its the end of February and we are still rising….any other ideas?
Stefan is only repeating Norman Greene’s work. He does this all the time on different forums.
Gary, that’s a very realistic approach and it leaves the hype out of the equation.
In this type of a market folks better not get too full of themselves. Just when you think you’ve got it all figured out, you’ll get your butt handed to you.
Best to stay humble and use your indicators to make moves and don’t ever be afraid to take a profit when you have it.
I am not quite sure how many posting here have such long term views on price. If I am lucky, I can get a good grasp on the next 1-3 months and I don’t even like to speculate longer than that. There are so many variables that can change over time. By having these views, it can get you into a lot of trouble. Keep it simple and take one step at a time.
no one’s guessing anything buddy.. It’s all about recognizing the evidence that lays before you, measuring the probabilities accordingly, and exercising a solid trading plan.. And that takes years of fiddling around with the Markets ? If it was easy, everyone would be rich and starring in their very own Movie!
Thank you Gary for all your inputs, this blog is one of the first things I look when I come to the computer…
Anyone follows how NG spring squeezing? Buying small portion a 3’d time…, been badly burned in 2011 with it…
Richard, lol. Yes, u are a smart man. Take care of the ST, and the LT will look after itself. I dont know how much trouble i got myself into by thinking how many baggers tis that gonna make me over the LT. Now, i do ST, if its profitable, I ride it while taking some profits along the way. Being good at taking profits has made my account ballooned big time.
Thanks Chris, I just examine the target levels to see the reaction at those points. As for gold, i am interested in $1,300. Let’s see how it reacts there and then go from there.
As for stocks, critical reversal Friday, as many closed positions for end of month. That is exactly what I wanted to see and now will be interested in 1925 for continuation to the downside.
“SILVER BREAKS LOWER – GOLD & PM STOCKS SET TO PLUNGE.”
Whatever this guy says do the opposite.
He has a point, and this would make the perfect setup as if the consolidation on gold breakout fails and actually broke down instead then silver may possibly make a new low which some EW suggest.
I would be happy to pick up silver in the forex exchange if it can hit new lows as the gains off the low to 50+ is immense.
I notice a lot of people getting nervous about high short levels of the commercials, but remember, the speculators can only get more bullish and buying additional long futures if they can sell these positions to the commercials as it is a zero sum game.
The question is thus not who is right? But are we in a bull or bear market for gold, as even in the bull market from 2000-2011 commercials continuously had rather high short levels in gold.
Cot numbers are more predictive in bear markets. If gold has truly switched into “baby bull” it can keep running with shallow pullbacks regardless of cot.
Richard, on staples: not only did they chart a big outside-day candle on huge volume on Friday, but pls also look at the weekly chart –> the menacing bearish wedge.
And this has occurred on relative strength of discrationaries against indexes since AUG24 and on transports’ turbo relative strength gain since mid FEB.
All this data, at least, should keep any trader away from shorting stocks outside of a scalping day-trade strategy!
Yes. I have been monitoring these closely for months, actually since mid last year. They have been one of the biggest investment falsities existing in these markets, a result of the FED interest rate policy.
I am watching the bearish wedge on the weekly; however, I have a cycle that goes positive until Apr-May timeframe for these, so even though I want to short them, I will avoid doing so. They could create a blow off above that rising wedge with the XLP stretching up to 55 or so. So let’s say, as long as 49 holds on XLP, I will watch for a run to $55.
Transports for me are a wait. I don’t like the present bottom and there should be more work on the downside once a rejection of the 7500 area. A break of 7000 should lead toward 5500. But right now, I am looking for a retest of 6700 to re-evaluate.
Oil. Tag team. First gold now oil?
HOFT is almost orgasmic.
Besides it, I’m holding pilots in NSA and CONE, which are acting well, plus shorting treasuries.
Miners are just about to collapse into their DCL — today they’ve set the declining trend line and now are ripe to fall.
Gold will follow them too but it will not go below 1205.
I’ll start buying GLD back as I see the first sign of strength after its fall at 1210.
…a new sign of weakness for GDX: it is ready to deliver a golden cross.
In the recent these crosses have tended to deliver contrarian market movements vs what we can read in classical TA theory.
Richard, I personally doubt XLP has the power to produce a higher high.
Last week there was a shakeout above the upper trend line of the weekly wedge.
Then the week ended with a long-legged doji via a heavy-volume outside day on Friday.
Plus a double-bearish divergence with the weekly MFI …
All this is the classic set-up marking we are past the 5-pivot of a bearish Wolfe wave.
Alex….xlu is in the same boat……looks like late October revisited with defensive stocks.
Oh man . Look at the pathetic volume on GDX
so gold should break up to about 1320-50 then fall down until may ? to 1100 or something ?
As a 40 year trader of gold and its derivatives I sold all my positions in the miners today. I spent the bear market accumulating stupid cheap major miners for pennies per ounce. I have seen this pattern before.
I fully expect a crash trade this next week to wipe out the late comers.
I am now completely out of miners including 4 years of freebies from buying and taking profits in freebies.
I still have my boxes of physical which hold open my doors downstairs in preparation to help my family and I escape the concentration camps coming.
Silver is the perfect coin for a guard trying to feed his family. It saved my forebears in Germany and Russia and it will save my family int eh coming years. As they eliminate cash those guards will salivate at the shinies staring at them.
For 40 years I and my trading team buddies have been in gold as a 20% of total assets trade. Gold is at the top of the descending bear channel and needs to test 1100-1140 to confirm trend.
We get to the same place just use different tools.
LOL, if this isn’t a buy post I don’t know what is lol….And why would I sell my miners into a rising trend? Many and I repeat! many are in for a shock in March…Ill leave it at that.
Yeah the shock is you will leave this forum.
I agree Bill. There is nothing wrong with that spot gold chart as is and the most negative you can say is it’s a neutral at this moment. Today it has yet again began to move back upwards and appears to keep resisting a heavy sell down. That is positive.
If I had to make a call on it I’m going with Gary that we have another leg-up before correcting. It will likely drag silver kicking and screaming with it.
agree with you, waiting for pull back below 1180
I understand your bitterness and pray that
things never get that bad.
Nice post Ken. Can empathise with a lot of that.
Here’s the link to an article written by Jeff Clark — another Analyst I like to follow 🙂
Bears in gold getting smoked again. They will get another pullback for opportunity to buy, but from what level? It’s funny how human psychology will allow them to pat themselves on the back for calling the next 2 or 3 day downturn as if they nailed it, instead of being long for the last 150% upside in many miners since Gary advised subs to buy.
Looks like MACD will imbed and do a line dance along the top while the bull rages higher!
All aboard the G-Train!
Wise words from an very experienced man. That’s worth some respect. Yes I must admit that gold is strong, but now it looks like it has completed 5 waves up and is ready for a correction.
Timeline for a shift of trend is here.
Yeah other ideas but not ones which Bill will understand.
Oh ya give me your best opinion….
Anthonyo doesn’t like Bill ???
Wouldn’t be the first time someone didn’t like me lol, his problem is I see his trolling for what it is, I’ve been on many forums the last ten years and the trolls never change their tune its always the same card with them…Gold is going to $500 or Gold is gonna be confiscated or the world is coming to an end, it gets boring after a while… Gold like anything else goes up or down, but to sit here and continue to be wrong on a daily basis and still yell from the top of a Mountain $ 500 any day now is ridiculous to say the least.
The only time they claim to be right is when it takes 8 weeks for their call to come to light then they clamor about ” see I told ya ” never once do they tell us how much money they lost covering on a daily basis… thats not a trader thats a TROLL
Red necks of the world unite! LOL … You don’t know what you are talking about…as usual.
Not sure if anybody has an interest but strong upside action outside the PM’s in the basic materials:
X – U.S. Steel
CRR – Carbo Ceramic
Sector rotation underway IMHO.
if you look at 2001, basic metal is 1 yrs lag behind PM
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