Folks the largest, most knowledgeable, best capitalized traders in the world are bullish on stocks. These are huge firms with massive research departments.
The most predictive sector over the last several years have been in the NDX contracts. As you can see from the latest COT report the commercials aren’t even vaguely bearish yet. The NDX contracts are just barely net short. It usually takes 7-8 billion net short before an intermediate cycle tops.
Here we have the the biggest traders in the world bullish on the stock market. On the other hand you have Joe Sixpack retail trader armed with his stochcharts account and some indicators bearish. Who do you think is going to win this battle, and who is going to get squashed?
Click on the chart to enlarge.
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Pulling a late one there Gary!
Thanks for the update
Interesting looking chart. Can anyone explain to me what I am seeing?
It is the COT positions for the NDX contract. Commercial positions only along with the Blees rating.
Ha ha . Brilliant 🙂
Gary,
I don’t know anything about the compatibility model you posted but I do know that you have been knocking it out of the park lately on your cycles calls. A very high success rate in-deed.
I have a new found respect for your work and I will be paying attention for sure moving forward.
Thanks
V
Gary, do you envision a SM buying opportunity in the near future, given the current overbought situation?
We just got it, and it’s still very early in a new intermediate cycle. Many traders make this mistake. They miss the first week or even the first few days of a rally and think they have to wait for a pullback. Look what happened to those that waited for gold to pullback.
When its very early in a new intermediate cycle just buy and don’t worry about trying to time a perfect entry. Short term draw downs get quickly corrected.
pray tell.. what is SM..?
Tulip
SM = stock market
stock market
So now it’s the most knowledgeable, best capitalized traders in the world are bullish on stocks.
And the last few months/years it’s been the fed printing presses.
So which is it?
Gary said
“Absolutely, but as I keep saying, the Fed has a printing press so who knows they may have halted the rest of the decline.”
Are you really that obtuse?
The Fed has a printing press. And I would think the big money on Wall Street would have first hand information when that printing press is going to be used.heck they are the ones getting those interest free loans to buy stocks.
Obtuse .. I need to write that one down .. good one Gary! LOL
Yea he must of been watching Shawshank Redemption.
Short interest was high before the 2008 crash. That said, I still hold oil juniors expecting the squeeze to continue. But it’s still a bear market. Small caps and biotech aren’t making new highs.
Gary’s on a hot streak with the miners call and back touting the bubble phase again.
Reshorted miners again on Friday.
We just witnessed year lows in Dow. Pullback come up down to 1600ish area. SM in biggest bull market of your life.
After trading dust for profit now loaded 95 % dust and 95% inverse 3x gold etf.
Still possible for gold to retest lows this year. Bankers still in charge. No change there.
50% loaded vix x3 etf.
Long term stocks to hold.
Will buy physical at these prices and average in.
sold all crude holdings 0% to hold. Target $45 dollars by mid summer and $ 60 before year end.
Got to take my hat off to Gary regarding gold and gold stocks timing calls. Can not remember anyone else getting it so spot on.
just shows you that every day is a learning day. Thanks again Gary for your inputs.
gltu
Dyodd
I would not short gold just yet. There is probably one more pop to test 1300 coming up as all the traders that missed the move try to buy the dip.
if Gold pops to 1300 +, I’m hoping miners pop also so I get a chance to sell before the drop coming.. maybe I already missed my chance to sell, time will tell.
I agree, Mr. Savage has been on fire with his calls recently in the gold space. So good in fact that yesterday, when I was in the middle of a chili cook-off, that I was participating in, and organizing for 120 person department… I left immediately and made the trade Gary recommended, which was to take some profits!! So glad I did because GDX and GDXJ ended in the red and were up 5% on the day when I sold.
I learned me lesson about a month back when I had cleared the table after a very nice run up, I then bought some DUST, and was ready to profit. Not an hour later I got a twitter from Gary saying DO NOT SHORT THIS BULL MARKET!!! did I listen? A little bit, I watched closely all day and not much happened, I let it ride. Then overnight gold makes the biggest move up in 12 years and I lost all my previous months gains!! Not only that, I lost the potential gains I would have had if I didn’t sell my core holdings.
Anyway, I learned my lesson, Gary is The Man, I know nothing… I’m ok with that.
reminds me of Shultz on Hogans Heros .. I know nothing, I seen nothing, I heard nothing! lol
Hi
‘Early bird catches the worm’
But yes strategy means less profit and more patience.
Cheers
I bet those guys weren’t bullish on March 9, 2009, and you know where that went. So they’re all bullish now because the market got knocked down a bit and they think it will return to another high. I always heard excessive bullishness was bearish.
In March of 2009 the combined contracts had dropped from 30 billion net short to only 6 billion net short. So yes they were positioning for a rally or bottom. They don’t call them smart money for nothing.
Yo everybody! Joe Sixpack over here with some great advice to give:
Just be short everything, always and forever. Wall Street and all them suits and that big printing press ain’t got nothin on us.
We be killers! Silent but deadly — like a fart in the wind, we will be heard 🙂
FWIW: Blistering bear market rally of the hated and most shorted or sector rotation and new market leadership? Take the two most hated asset groups out there (commodities and emerging markets), put them together! For most it’s repugnant. To me, it’s just a once or twice in an lifetime … opportunity. Best to all.
Gary,
your “friend” MA doesn’t believe so much in this baby bull yet! 😛
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/precious-metals-march-4th-2016/
he missed the entire rally trying to call top after top. I predicted he would miss the bottom just
like he missed the top in 2011. He was calling for $5000 gold by 2015 by the way.
He’s nothing more than a big trend follower and he’s made a big deal about being right about the bear market, so naturally he can’t reverse his call for sub $1000 GOLD WITHOUT LOOKING LIKE AN IDIOT.
LOL!
But if this baby bull will grow and he will continue to wait for a new low….don’t you think he will look like an idiot EVEN MORE ??? 🙂
Gary,
The oil stocks are rallying past 2-3 days, do you think this due to short covering? Or, oil is going a lot higher?
All rallies start with short covering.
Best capitalized traders can flip neutral (or short) on a dime….likely at or near 2025 SPX. There are already 200 handles that were just added big boyz’ coffers….and only 25 handles until 2025…..I suspect they will be exiting their positions sooner rather than later. This is a TRADERS market not an investors market.
This coming from the guy who can’t let go of ‘GDX – single digits’ Haha! Love it.
Come lick my toes Jay 🙂
The rally has to break the intermediate trend line to confirm the ICL. That means a move above 2075. I have to think once the market gets to 2075 it’s going the rest of the way to test the all time highs and then into the bubble phase.
Hi Gary
I just signed up
And ready to make money !!!
Gamble
Thnx
What is SM ?
stock market.
Hi Gary
Do you think we’ll see a major dip in the summer for the miners & gold?
What happened to the “capitulation”? Not enough blood on the carpet in my view…
Not a trader. Picking up bullion & miners over the past 12 months for the long term.
Yes gold will still have intermediate degree corrections. All markets require them to cleanse sentiment and pave the way for the next leg up.
Gary
I’m new here you may have answered this many times but why is the smart money net short gold and the dollar? Wouldn’t that be like betting on red and black at the same time?
It’s the degree they are net short compared to previous weeks. At prior tops the commercials were net short the dollar by 100,000 contracts. Now they are only net short 30,000 contracts. You can see they’ve drastically reduced their short position. So much so that the Blees rating on the dollar is now at a maximum bullish 100.