1. Gary Post author

    When the Fed again fails to rasie rates next week the dollar should begin to accelerate lower. It may not bottom until the December FOMC meeting as there is no chance of a hike in November.

  2. vespij

    Hi Gary, thanks again for the good atticle. i think the answer is no but i will ask anyway. Is there anyway to click on a members id and see a list of a history of his posts?. Get a track record so t]o speak?

  3. epalazzo

    Gary, based on the link you provided above the odds of a small hike (25-50 bps) is 85% and 15% is the odds of a bigger hike (50-75bps). So the odds of a hike is pretty big or small hike does not move the markets? Please comment. Thanks.

    1. Gary Post author

      That’s not what the chart says. The odds are 85% of rates staying where they are currently between 25-50.

      The odds are only 15% of the Fed raising the rate to 50-75

  4. zkotpen

    Spanglish, Alex P,

    My 1st impression is, I like the general idea of your chart, though it looks like you could be rushing it. In other words, it’s possible that both of your trendlines will be broken while the USD continues in consolidation. I think it’s likely that at least one will be broken before the consolidation ends.

    The benefit for me is, from your chart I can see what Alex is talking about, where he says the USD still needs to complete its yearly cycle top. From your chart, I agree, the recent move up in USD looks like it has not retraced enough of the prior move down, nor taken up enough time. I think that trendline will break first, with USD still in consolidation.

    None of the above takes any news event into consideration.

    Just looking at raw patterns.

    I will probably take a look at this in closer detail, applying my own analysis, cooking those raw patterns as I see them, over the weekend.

  5. zkotpen


    Looking at the two charts, the pattern in Gold from July to present looks very much like the pattern in USD from March, 2015, to present, just one degree lower.

    1. Gary Post author

      The dollar made its yearly cycle high back in Feb. It’s just getting way too late in the intermediate cycle for the dollar to have another higher high at this point.

  6. Alexandru Popovici

    Exactly, Zkot!
    I see the upper weekly trend line of USX being broken just to confirm the new yearly cycle and then that break to prove false and USX to resume its downward trend into its multi-year-cycle decline by permanently breaking down the lower trend line of the weekly triangle.

    This technicality is underscored by the incoming FOMC –> inherent market jitters in expectation of such an event can and will produce a volatility large enough so as to rise USX above the upper trend line.
    And that move in USX will push miners and metals down to their ICL.

    PS: it is quite possible that the top of USX and the ICLs of miners/gold to occur 2-3 days before FOMC, i.e. on Monday.

  7. humbled

    then should buy more establish longs in metals & miners these few days towards fomc. can buy anytime like Gary said. just need patience to hold through the next few years.

  8. zkotpen

    Hi Alex P,

    Good point. I still need to take a technical look at USD.

    Still, it’s worth pointing out that the next major (yearly cycle?) low in USD might not make it below the 2016 low — I want to see the upcoming USD YCH first. EUR and GBP are both looking even more triangular. EUR multi-year degree; GBP at yearly degree.

    Meanwhile in the nearer term, gold and AUDUSD are reducing very short term volatility prior to a move…

  9. Alexandru Popovici

    Zkot, as Gary pointed out above while answering to your post, it is likely that the USX’ piercing the upper trend line might not produce a higher high so that the YCH might have been set in July.

    But … w/ or w/o an higher high, we have to witness an up thrust in USX in the following days and early next week which will break miners/gold into their ICLs

  10. Alexandru Popovici

    USX=95.37 now with a long-tailed doji;
    USX really does not know where to take it now, complete hesitation….silence! let the greenback think and decide 🙂

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      …on the other hand, gold and stocks seem to have caught scent of USX’ desire even before it’s made its decision

  11. CaliJoe

    So Gary, your whole thesis that Dollar should drop and that gives boost to gold price. What if exactly opposite happens? You were so adamant during Brexit vote that it won’t go through and it look what happened. Too much reliance on dollar dropping which according to macro view of currencies still trading strong. Don’t completely discount that Fed won’t raise rates.

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