60 thoughts on “Undercut low in progress

  1. duckwhorocks1

    I count 10% till 22 on GDX.
    A rising 200MA is usually supportive.
    I would like to see the COT improve a bit as well before we can call the bottom.

  2. duckwhorocks1

    Why the big decline?
    Like I have called several times over Gold is hitched to USD/JPY. When that moves up Gold comes under pressure. Today USD/JPY broke out above a declining trend line going back a long time.
    Gold bugs are about to feel the All Mighty Dollar’s strength.

  3. ras

    When price approaches a support level 3rd time, it tends to give way. Important to change stance when a scenario does not pan out. That is the problem with predictions. No big deal for long term holders. It is ouch time time if one was into leveraged etfs like nugt. GLD at 123. No support until 120. There could be a sucker bounce before we get there. Even the best analyst strikes out occasionally. Cheers.

  4. Alexandru Popovici

    Bought GDX premarket at 26.12 on Sep21 and sold it on Sep26 at 26.6, as I tweeted here.

    All cycles are late: USX, gold and miners.
    Searching for re-entry on Thursday.

  5. Alexandru Popovici

    Beautiful alignment of related markets (USX, gold and miners):
    – lateness in their respective daily cycles,
    – USX has got to do its cyclical duty of CONFIRMING its new yearly cycle (minimum target = 96.80)
    – gold and miners are set to shakeout their respective 200WMAs.

    USX is rising very quickly indeed: WE ARE IN A CLEAR BUYING CLIMAX FOR IT AND SEELING CLIMAX FOR GOLD/MINERS.
    Stand by to re-buy!

  6. AmantedeTeclas

    Hey guys. I am a beginner and I am really confused by people here insulting Gary or making sarcastic comments. This doesn’t serve anyone.

    I don’t know what is for real and what not. So I suggest we stick to the charts.

    Thanks to Gary, Alex and Duck for stating valuable insights, although conflicting.

    Honestly, it is bad enough to bleed money. Why additionally waste Your time arguing and confusing each other?

    1. Don

      Armantede, we all know you are not a ‘beginner’. So, who’s insulting Gary and what sarcasm are you referring to?

      1. AmantedeTeclas

        Never mind. Don, I have no idea who You are. And nothing I wrote meant more than what I wrote. It is just the internet.

  7. Don

    Unusual intra-day volatility in the stock market, the dollar, gold, silver and bonds. The machines are probably having a field day running stops.

  8. Don

    Gary, do you think it’s too early to dive into the miners? Would it be better to wait a few days for the washout in gold to conclude?

  9. chrisG

    Bought gold at 1320, cut 1305. Fortunately did not blindly faithfully listen to Gary’s undercut low. Cos this undercut and cut deeply. High probability silver heading for$17 ish. Was thinking next week. But At this rate, seems this week. Gdx $22 ish. Buy PMs, and minings when we are there

  10. chrisG

    This few days going to be the bloodbath phase where people cut their positions like crazy. Standby to pick up cheaply

  11. ras

    Calling a $40 drubbing an undercut is a stretch. A marginally lower low is generally referred to as undercut. Gold fell too far too fast. Would not be surprised if a $15-20 bounce happens. And then the final flush? Markets can stay oversold longer than what we anticipate. No big deal for long term holders.

  12. AmantedeTeclas

    Wow, this has been vicious. Some more days to go. Thanks for the timeframe, Gary. So I will just try to not look at it for the rest of the week. ๐Ÿ™‚

  13. Alexandru Popovici

    Amante, I drew the min target from 2 angles. The former is the break out level of the down trend line; the latter is that I feel USX is forming a bearish harmonic Gartley with the D-point at the top to be formed by Friday ๐Ÿ˜‰

  14. duckwhorocks1

    Everything mean reverts.
    Everything.
    Gary has said this multiple times over.
    So if that is true, please consider, as I have been saying for the last 2 months, the Gold:Oil Ratio.
    This has been around 15 for over 4 decades on average. Now it is more than 28.
    Picture a mean reversion to 15. Forget about overshoot….it will do that…just picture it at 15.
    The best case for Gold is then Gold at $1,200 and oil at $80.
    if you accept that, then ask yourself,
    1) Why would anyone by Gold stocks when their revenues (gold price) is going to go down and their primary expense (energy costs) is going to go up?
    2) Why would you not bet on energy? Even if you think Gold is going to $1,500 oil should go to $100/barrel which is a much more fantastic % increase.

    1. AmantedeTeclas

      Wow, that is a powerful argument. But as far as I know now the supply side of the precious metals has been decimated. So much has been destroyed and other stuff is just uneconomic at this price. But when You look at oil then You come to wonder how it has even come so far.

      So in the metals it is a bit of a bottleneck, but not so much in oil. Not yet, at least.

      1. duckwhorocks1

        AmantedeTeclas,
        The supply side has been impacted in Gold more than oil.
        But at the same time, there is a 40 year above ground supply of Gold.
        We have a 60 day above ground supply of oil.
        Very different beasts.
        Gold is obviously less impacted by actual gold mining as above ground stores dwarf annual mining.

        1. AmantedeTeclas

          I understand. Actually gold has never made a lot of sense to me. It just has so much value because we attribute so much value to it, which makes it hard to aprreciate the value. I am more into silver and the other PMs. Thanks a lot. Don’t wanna consume too much time talking about tedious fundamentals. ๐Ÿ™‚

  15. Alexandru Popovici

    Amante, I personally advise you not to care of tips from anyone; not from Gary, not from me or another. Just gather techniques that may be meaningful to you.

    More importantly: read Chapter 6 of Van Tharp’s “Trade Your way to financial freedom” — it states the quintecense of succesfully playing LONG_TERM the positive-expectancy-bearing probabilistic game of trading. Scientifically there is no meaningful difference btw trading, poker and black jack – they are all probabilistic games with positive expectancy.

    1. boltfan13

      Alex,
      Well said. If any of the letter writers, bloggers, analysts, etc. had the holy grail of trading systems, they sure as heck wouldn’t be stupid enough to let the public in on it. If they did, it would no longer work. So blindly following anyone is a recipe for failure. I encourage any new traders to paper trade for a year or two. In the rare instance you have success, then maybe think of going live.

  16. victor

    Have nice 11% profit in oil, very tempted to sell and relocate into metals today but think that on tomorrow’s inventory oil should jump to 49.50…, any input on oil guys? Thanks.

  17. jskauai

    Opinions please! I am a beginner in Elliott wave analysis but with today’s price action I am finding some are calling this the end Wave B and the beginning of wave C down to new lows, possibly. Here is the quote…
    “Todayโ€™s action pretty much confirms that the bear market rally (wave B) has been completed and the final leg down (wave C) to new lows below $1050 has now started. Why do I believe this? It is my belief we experienced a 5 wave, multi-year decline from the top around $1900 to the low near $1050. This 5 wave decline was wave A of A-B-C correction. The rally from $1050 to around $1380 is a 3 wave structure which is wave B of the 3 wave correction. We should now experience a 5 wave decline (wave C) to new lows to complete the 3 wave A-B-C correction. This decline will likely be a multi year event at which time the buying opportunity of a lifetime will present itself.”
    The other side of the coin, which many have been saying is that this is a new bull market in gold and that this is wave 2 just a corrective wave which will terminate shortly. So what is it?

  18. jskauai

    On the $US I see where some are saying the dollar has broken out. Looking at the $US weekly it appears $ needs to take out 96.80 to break the downtrend line established since peak in November of 2015. What say you?

    1. Surf City

      Jskauai, See my 3rd chart in the post below. My expectations are that it will not break this trend line until sometime in 2017 but I could be wrong. My red down trend line is the line out of the 3 year cycle top so if it breaks that line, May would have hosted a very early 3 year cycle low, IMO.

      1. jskauai

        Surf City, I am a frequent lurker over at gold tent. I would love to be able to post over there to at least ask an intelligent question. I just haven’t figured out how to register there, can you help me here?

  19. Gary Post author

    40 comments. We must be getting close. We had 300 in the SMT comment section. BPGDM hit 25% and volume on JNUG was an all time high. NUGT was very close to an all time high. Ask yourself who was buying what everyone else was selling?

    Sentiment in GDX at a new all time low. 1%

    1. ras

      You could be right,Gary. What we got today is a triple bottom breakdown sell signal on the pf chart. It would be surprising if it is all over in 6-7 days. Anything is possible.

    2. tulip

      Gary- are you sure about this percentage at 1%…?
      ALL time low. sentiment GDX. here… I have doubts.-
      Volume something else. Please explain & be more clear.
      Thank you

  20. duckwhorocks1

    I got a ton of a nasty comments as I called for $22 GDX for some time now.
    We are now 40 cents from the 22 handle.
    I covered most of my shorts and puts but still have few left in the Silver miners.
    I think a 3-5 day bounce is possible as the short term indicators look quite pessimistic but the bigger problem the bulls have is the COT. The Large Specs are now bleeding and the Commercials have got them back on the run. That could create some massive selling in Gold and Silver and I cannot imagine GDX diverging too far.

    unlike what every article on the internet has been saying…the commercials were not forced to cover at the highs they will press this. Watch USD/JPY. If that breaks 103.5….all hell will break loose in PM land.
    Gold is still very very expensive versus all other commodities and even against Platinum. Be careful out there.

    1. ras

      Likely more selling in gold after a bounce, then down to lower levels? On the weekly charts, DUST and JDST beginning to stir up? Best to take it one day at a time instead of looking too far ahead? Senior miners like NEM look terrible in the weekly time frame. Ditto AEM and others.

    1. Robert

      Nice information thanks Surf. I will start following you, you have been accurate on your cycle analysis. Is it possible for GDX to get back to 26 by end of year?

      1. Surf City

        Robert, I would think so if we are in a Bull Markets but much depends on the Time and Price of GDX at the next IC Low. My price target is somewhere between 20-23 range. Lower than 19 would be bearish, IMO. Time is another issue. We are in my timing band for a DCL and possibly an ICL as well. But what if we get one more trading or daily cycle into a November ICL?

        If the ICL is soon than 26-28 seems reasonable on GDX by year end but if the ICL extends into November and GDX drops below 20 then a year end move towards 26 will be more difficult.

  21. rayalex123

    All the bears on here are still living in 2013 – 2015 I think lol… as Gary said, you won’t make money in a bull if you refuse to recognize that it is, in fact, a bull market.

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