140 thoughts on “COMMODITIES

  1. Don

    Good video Gary, but when it comes to gold, you are starting to sound a lot like you did back from 2013 to 2015, when you you so many times that gold was close to that final bottom. (Yes, you finally ‘nailed’ it in early 2016). I am not ready to sell my long positions just yet but this situation with gold is not encouraging.

  2. Don

    Good video Gary, but when it comes to gold, you are starting to sound a lot like you did back from 2013 to 2015, when you were sure so many times that gold was close to that final bottom. (Yes, you finally β€˜nailed’ it in early 2016). I am not ready to sell my long positions just yet but this situation with gold is not encouraging.

  3. Alexandru Popovici

    SP500 AT HISTORICAL HIGH ALONGSIDE ALL OTHER MAJOR INDEXES (except the truth-saying NYSE Composite) !!! πŸ™‚

    This is great news to me for 2 reasons:
    – it shows stocks have been exhausting in the VIOLENT thrust I have been preaching to ensue post the ICL on NOV4 before the ICL had been put (those who have followed my comments know what I am talking about) and
    – not it should be obvious for every analyst that NOV4 hosted an ICL and not DCL (as many have asserted).

    Furthermore, as a bonus, now that NOV4 had an ICL, once THE SCORCH STARTS (any time this week) AND SPX MOVES BELOW NOV4 LOW (spx=2083.79), WE WILL HAVE HAD THE FINAL CONFIRMATION THAT STOCKS WILL BE IN YEARLY CYCLE DECLINE and that the YCL comes in early JAN.

    Kind regards to You all!

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      …additionally, after the YC decline is obvious, this bull trap of SPX along with that of other indexes will underscore the truthfullness of rendering your analysis based on NYSE COMP, not on SPX!
      NYSE hs not had a higher high – it says the Truth!

  4. Pedestrian

    I don’t see anything at all of interest in the metals charts today. Just a hint that there is potential for a bottom to be forming but its not enough to interest me. Not yet anyway. Crude WTI on the other hand looks to have peaked here and should start to reverse back down tomorrow. La-de da

    Dum-de-dum. Another day in nowhere land.

      1. Pedestrian

        Agree Dday. I would not short just yet anyway. Unless I am certain beyond all beliefs I will wait to see that the reversal has begun. There is just no point buying early when a security is still on the rise. Maybe I am gun shy but I don’t make hasty bets anymore. That’s just gambling. The chart needs to meet certain conditions before I engage. Catching exact tops or bottoms is for drunks and novices.

  5. Pedestrian

    The 30 year is about to reverse and head back up (rates falling back a little). Not sure why so many people keep talking about a bond bubble burst. Are they just nuts or something? We are in a full fledged deflation still and the chart line on the 30 year per the monthly has not been violated. People, you need to start looking at the bigger charts or you will never get the major trend reversals right. I mean, calling for a bond bubble burst does not pass the smell test when viewed from a chart 10 years or longer. That’s why the dollar is going to keep rising on a trending basis regardless of any little pullbacks it may now encounter. The global dollar shortage has now gone critical. How the hell does that support the notion of a crashing dollar? Well it doesn’t and anyone sensible should understand that by now. And if the dollar keeps going up and its correlation to gold does not break then precious metals still have a date with deeper lows. There is just no other way to call it. And as already pointed out, the dollar and gold have been going in opposite directions since summer already. Anyone who wants to punish themselves by holding on and praying for a big breakout and resumption of the bull is probably in need of therapy because they are just lying to themselves. I would sell the next bounce if I still had any long positions. Thank goodness I don’t. We will get a brief rally at most. That is all I would trade it as and then get out of the casino again.

    1. Dday

      Its the psychology of hoping and waiting. I have lost 10-20% so why not wait for a breakout, there has to be one at some point right.. That 20% becomes 30,40,50, then you are stuck with massive losses. Finally the true reality of the situation hits you and you either bail or wait for 80-100%(if the company goes bust) losses. Its what happend to me, I bought miners in 2011, made a decent gain(on paper) then lost it all the following year waiting for a reversal.

  6. Alexandru Popovici

    EDDY, yes.
    i personally have a half full-position in FAZ (stop loss on XLF +0.5% above its former top).
    Looking forward adding to a full position as THE SCORCH develops.

    1. ltr

      briansmith, what is your email address? I will send you a link to the blog of the person I follow. She is spot on.

  7. Alexandru Popovici

    THE SCORCH has started !
    it may not be obvious, stupid money feels confident and buys into this strength but it has started.

    Utility stocks set their YCL 1w ago and are about to deliver their WEEKLY SWING LOW ! πŸ˜‰
    Consumer staples set their YCL 10 days ago !

    Movement in utility stocks is underscored by ALL TREASURIES CHARTING A DOJI HARAMI TODAY –> ready to bounce!

  8. Alexandru Popovici

    Utility stocks + treasuries’ bullish doji harami + miners cast strong signals that gold’s YCL was on Friday, as Gary just said earlier today, at 1202.
    Even if EURUSD will move into 1.04 territory from now through FOMC meeting, that will most likely not set a lower low for gold.

  9. pacoquin

    Just to say that while u keep looking at Gold bottom, am watching and waiting my miners to buy them in nxt days.. only for good rebound.. and close them.. because they will fall again and will make new lows. AGAIN pls look al Gold during 84 > 94 >2002 because I believe that is future for Gold. Or course.. good traders will make lot of money if they have a good system able too detect bottoms for violent rebounds, but my system tells me Gold will make new lows in medium long run under 1050. Gary.. not to offend u .. but I think u are mistaken and rather stubborn.. if I may say so. Hope to remind u this in few months to come.. thats all and thks for yr work

    1. Pedestrian

      Looks like a fizzle on the metals today all right. I am with you on the 1050 or lower call Pac. That’s about all that makes sense according to the weekly and monthly charts.

  10. pacoquin

    Euro. in nxt fewdays hope to see Euro 102,9-103 .. a-b-c rebound.. to 108-109 .. and collapses… so far.. its my scenario.. will see

  11. Gary Post author

    The next couple of days should be interesting. I’m waiting to see if interest rates spike higher again.

  12. jskauai

    *In the first stage of a bull market, stocks begin to find a bottom and quietly firm up. When the market starts to rise, there is widespread disbelief that a bull market has begun. After the first leg peaks and starts to head back down, the bears come out proclaiming that the bear market is not over. It is at this stage that careful analysis is warranted to determine if the decline is a secondary movement (a correction of the first leg up). If it is a secondary move, then the low forms above the previous low, a quiet period will ensue as the market firms and then an advance will begin. When the previous peak is surpassed, the beginning of the second leg and a primary bull will be confirmed.* Quote by Wazcam.
    This is taken from a post from Plunger over at https://goldtadise.com. It shows me that we have no confirmation that gold is in a bull market yet. So are any of the commodities that have the above confirmation of their bull market? Gary isn’t there a possibility that the baby bull in gold could fail at this point in time? Anyone, please provide your comments here, TIA.

    1. Gary Post author

      Well if you wait for confirmation you let a huge chunk of profits pass you by, and you will probably end up buying near the top of the second leg.

      I hear that phrase “buy after confirmation” all the time. It’s like everyone believes that once something gives confirmation of a trend it just shoots straight up from that point on.

      Nothing could be further from the truth. Most of the time price is in a trading range. If one waits for confirmation all you did was buy at the top of the range. Even if another leg up is starting they rarely just develop into a runaway move.

      A perfect example was the baby bull rally. I know many many traders that sat on the sidelines during the first leg up. They were waiting for confirmation. They didn’t buy until the first correction was over and the second leg made a higher high.

      All they accomplished was to buy near the top of the second leg and get stuck in the yearly cycle decline.

  13. espresso

    Two things. First, the premise of gold ‘being the only commodity’ going down is based on a prediction of the other commodities, not a reality. That is, those commodities going up a preduction for the FUTURE, and there is no guarantee, therefore it cannot be used as conclusive evidence of anything. I get the compelling argument, but I’ve lost a lot of money on compelling arguments in the past.

    And second, the comment that you don’t think oil will ever see $40 again… I heard the same type of comment from you and from DOC a few years ago, except then it was “oil will never see $100 again.”

    Echos from the past. Chances are him, imo, that oil will have a permanent lid on price appreciation because solar and wind are getting close to becoming the cheapest new energy to bring online, and their cost structure is declining. But I still expect oil will gravitate higher for a couple more years, and with inflationary bias, probably not come down much either. But solar will in real terms.

    1. espresso

      Sorry for the typos… and I meant the rejected thesis of gold ‘being the only commodity’ that could go down in the face of all other commodities going up — THAT is based on predictions of those commodities going up, an as yet to be seen reality, not a certainty.

  14. jonsyl

    Miners holding well considering gold floundering. Best to watch dollar action, need a significant sentiment shift which simply isn’t there. Spx missed it’s opportunity to shift down from friday and is Hestined to go over 2200 as a foregone conclusion. The happy talk with analysts continues to maintain the momemtum. This will end badly but premature to suggest it’s around the corner.
    If dollar reverses up tomorrow, gold will break it’s recent low with gold bulls looking at neverending signs of a bottom once again.

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t know what tomorrow holds, but I do know the dollar is a lot closer to a top than it was a month ago πŸ™‚

      1. tulip

        I am sharing this because I think its quite well done

        If you think predicting economies and financial markets is complex and cumbersome – think again. Renowned investor Raoul Pal’s proven probability framework is simple, easy and quick to learn. Here is a direct video link.
        On the blog Juggling Dynamite — Danielle Park

  15. Alexandru Popovici

    Eddy, i have no idea about European bonds, but i can guess they are correlated with the Us ones.
    So, up through early JAN and then down for 2 decades or so (and yields up).

  16. Alexandru Popovici

    Today’s swing high in USX to be invalidated in 2 days on the release of FOMC minutes, so that a right translated daily cycle peaking on day 13 (or even on day 14 early in Asian trading on Thursday) would be far more fitting and probable considering the level of the depression and how people with bipolar disorder react when deep in such a state.
    – USX down tomorrow (EUR up)
    – USX to new high on Wednesday.

    Gold will not produce a lower low though.

    PS: lowering my buy-limit order to [email protected]

      1. Alexandru Popovici

        I don’t like healthcare.
        there is plenty of room to ride financial+energy + copper stocks after YCL in January, no need to bother myself with a laggard biotech/healthcare sectors (they are strongly correlated).

    1. yasen

      Alex, you make me laugh. I say that in a respectful way as I find your comments on the blog to be witty. I hope you are correct about the SCORCH beginning. I picked up some SPY 219 puts for mid Dec.

  17. briansmith672

    Alexandru how did you like the market scorch today? You sure did not see that coming. Keep guessing.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      Speak again after you make the call that you are 100% in small cap+financials+transport+energy stocks WITH LEVERAGE to prove your “awareness” and that you are not in the Stupids Camp but I am.
      Until then, you are mere noise.

  18. briansmith672

    Alexandru, The scorch has begun? Market is up almost 1% today. If scorch means “going higher” then I agree otherwise you are clueless.

    1. jonsyl

      brian, easy to be critic after the fact, give us your holdings, I suspThect you are deeply short, gold in particular. We can then verify your supposed wisdom vs arm chair sniping.

  19. Alexandru Popovici

    YASEN, I am 12% of equity in FAZ (shorting financial stocks, for those who are unaware, yet – this comment is not for u, Yasen), 8% in UGLD and the rest cash waiting to buy more FAZ, ERY and UGLD.

    One of Gary’s favorite patterns has just been produced BESRISHLY: the volatility coil in DOW and somewhat in XLF.

    So, let’s enjoy the Scorxh, Yasen!
    Good night!

  20. chrisG

    Alex, not that NYSE haven’t made new highs. It’s just not yet. It will soon, so there’s no negative divergence. NYSE also did not make lower low. Also, tis week market drop??? Hey guys, this week is Thanksgiving shortened week. Good luck to your hopes that market drop

  21. chrisG

    NYSE underperformed bcos many oil stocks are listed there. With oil rallying, and further to go, oil stocks etfs xle ,oih gonna break out big. NYSE makes an Inverted HS already. So, still think market going to drop big?

  22. chrisG

    NDX futures has been banging the door of 5k. I can guarantee you. We will be looking at 5k before year end.

  23. Gary Post author

    If the dollar breaks back below 100.56 we will have a failed breakout. This is often how major market turns occur.

    Gold, silver & the euro completed swing lows today. The yen is completing a swing low this evening. And the dollar completed a swing high.

    1. Robert

      Sounds right, Gold has bottomed. Maybe rally into Dec and then a small selloff after FED hikes and tax loss selling? Then a repeat of last year gold rally strong in Jan onwards?

  24. jonsyl

    gary, dollar is the key. If for no other reason than the entire investment community sees it as a validation on the US markets. If and when it breaks then you’ll see the emperor has no clothes. Could be as you suggest but first I want to see a sudden shift in the dollar and accompanying sentiment to the downside. I do agree this will end badly as Trump is a fool. He is more interested in keeping his personal image alive with the media than running the country. This will become increasingly apparent in the weeks ahead.

    1. Pedestrian

      Well if that is true that markets are breaking out then gold is in big trouble. Look at a daily chart of the Nikkei to see what I am talking about. It has been making a very nice bowl formation indicating that a rise in Japanese equities is underway. And if the Nikkei rises with any intensity it almost always pushes the Yen down. And when Yen falls so does gold. Just that simple so take care out there.

      Bada-bing, bada-boom

      Gold is toast.

      1. Pedestrian

        Anyway, I read on Zerohedge yesterday that 100% of analysts now believe the Fed will hike rates in December. So there is a consensus and that is part of why gold can’t get traction right now. The next FOMC is not that far off and it is becoming difficult to even imagine that gold will stage a big recovery with a backdrop like that. Odds therefore favour the bears and so I am holding fire on buying this puny little corrective tease we are seeing in metals right now.

        It is sure to disappoint.

  25. Dday

    Another Asian pump for the metals, looks promising as silver is up three times to gold. Still sceptical as always until US markets are firmly open.

      1. Pedestrian

        Maybe. But then again maybe not. Here is a chart I found from a guy at Goldtent (pedro_deleon) who sees things the same way I do. Kind of hard to argue with the obviousness of the mirror pattern so far.

        Its why I keep saying this market should only be bought for speculative short term bounces. No buy and hold though. You leave this bride at the altar. Either that or sell into any strength that appears. I have serious doubts about metals markets right now and I am not alone. Seems both Armstrong and Edelson have also put the yellow flags out meaning caution is advised unless the existing negative trend and pattern shows real signs of reversing.

        You know, I can appreciate Gary’s comments up above though. If you don’t buy when every sinew in your body tells you to stay away you will likely miss most if not all the move. That is assuming one comes of course. But for me I just prefer to avoid these kinds of set ups because they are fraught with too much conflict.

        The risk/reward picture does not pass my acid test.

  26. Alexandru Popovici

    No, Chris, NYSE Composite is exhausted (just as all stocks market), it will not get to fresh historical highs, not until in spring.
    The only stocks worth being in now are utilities and some consumer staples.

    Waiting for a weekly swing low to be charted in utilities.

  27. chrisG

    I never say NYSE new high in a month , but it will work it’s way. I don’t even care what market is going to do next week. But I know, this week I stay long via futures and comfortably collect my profits. In fact, like I said NDX likely 5k soon

  28. Pedestrian

    What is a scorch by the way? Does that mean up or down? Do you mean scorched earth on gold Alex?

    Then I agree.

  29. Pedestrian

    So that’s it. After looking at the charts all morning I made the decision. I am going to get short metals again at the next best opportunity. That puppy is going to get squashed by the end of this year and its going down hard sorry to say.

    The verdict is in. Gold investing is dead for 2016.

    1. duckwhorocks1

      That is the way I see it, hence avoiding the long side.
      There is a huge confluence of support at $1,199, which I think we visit soon.

  30. Alexandru Popovici

    Chris, yes, I agree w/ you that NDX will make a higher high [and likely also reach 5k] but not immediately, in 2 weeks, as USX moves higher in its next daily cycle off jobs report the other Friday.

    PS: personally I intend to mount tomorrow my gold position to a full position and then to discard it before jobs report and to mount it back after EURUSD goes into 1.04 realm and stocks get a bit higher along with USX to their ICHs.

  31. Dday

    Both dollar and gold are at turning points, dollar at a tipple top and gold at strong support. So I expect a big move, in both markets. Which way?The monthly dollar suggest further upside regarding the MACD crossover, and gold further downside(infact MACD supported by stochastic recently turned bearish) for the same reasons. That’s my humble opinion.

  32. Alexandru Popovici

    Dday, Chris, Ped, we all here speak about anything that’s denominated in dollars.
    By zooming out a little bit, I see a tremendous opportunity: LONG GBPEUR!
    Forget about FED and other US-related noise, this trade seems a fantastic getaway, a great item of diversification.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      … but not right away, since the pair is toppy short-term –> needs some cooling for several days into a DCL.

    2. Alexandru Popovici

      Friday morning will host UK’s gdp report and will also be pair’s days 18 – spot on to deliver its DCL by reverting to its 50dma πŸ˜‰

      1. Dday

        Agreed has the potential for a good trade. I’ll wait for the MACD to turn up, when it crosses, i’ll hit the buy button(monthly/weekly).

    1. Pedestrian

      Yup, and if the Nikkei moves up another 1800 points by year end as implied by its chart that equates to the Yen retesting its December lows and gold following along and doing the same dance routine. That means a 100% retrace of its move since late 2015. Gold stocks cannot survive that kind of fall in metals without getting hurt badly.

      I would not even say any of this except the primary Japanese stock index looks so bullish over the near term that it has gold doom-porn written all over it. Not that it won’t have a pullback along the way but that thing is headed in one major trending direction. And that is up. The only thing that can save gold therefore is if it decouples from the Yen correlation and soon.

      But I kind of doubt that’s in the cards right now.

  33. briansmith672

    So much for your scorch Alexandru. Markets ripping higher again today. Like I say you are a great contrarian indicator as you talk with such conviction but get it all wrong.

  34. chrisG

    I still think the obsession with gold is overdone. If commodities bottom, then industrial metal stocks will also rally. If USD going to be strong bcos US is great again, industrial metals will do well also. So, heck the PMs, just stay with IM and respective stocks. Technically and logically, seems like the less stressful way. Why stay with PMs and hope that the head and shoulders formation doesn’t lead to big drops? Industrial metal stocks don’t have such stress and hope. Jmho

  35. eddy1974

    Hello Alex, is it time to buy ERY,DRIP and SOXS?
    I want to believe Gary’s opinion on euro: so I don’t like long gbpeur!

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      Hi, Eddy.
      No, not yet.

      Stocks will move lower into a HCL through the next week but then they will rebound and produce a bull trap in 2w from now –> there will be the shorting best timing πŸ˜‰

  36. Alexandru Popovici

    EURUSD @ 1.0613 –> it is worth being long.

    Yesterday I expressed concern that the swing low in EURUSD and the swing high in USX would be invalidated today and tomorrow as EURUSD moves lower.
    Recent price action has made me change my mind even though EURUSD is now at its lows of the day.

    So best trades now through Monday evening are LONG GOLD & EURUSD.
    Tomorrows FOMC minutes’ will not change USD’s decline.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      I still hold EURUSD will move into 1.04 territory (or anyway below 1.0538) but that is not for this week to occur but around FOMC’s meeting on DEC11 in 15 days

  37. chrisG

    Hoping for ABX to rally, hoping for AG, CDE, EXK, GDX, GG, whatever shit PMs stocks to rally???? Why make your life so difficult.

    X, AKS, FCX etc, Basic materials stocks etc, seems easier right? Less stress. No need to pray to Gary, no need to pray to investment god πŸ˜‰

  38. jonsyl

    so far more of the same. No need to jump ahead with positioning until evidence that dollar has reversed. May happened as gary and alex speculate, but speculation is a guess and not a certainty.

        1. Pedestrian

          It was a good idea. Because it cheaper than paying for therapy for all the anguish after your money was wiped out!

  39. chrisG

    Glad I never listen to buying gold, PMs , miners. What rests of the commodities oil etc going to drop. I sticked to my Basic materials sticks, AKS etc, and they are all rallying crazily

  40. Gary Post author

    I can tell you that all this back and forth short term trading on a different hunch everyday is what ruined my portfolio early in my career.

    At the moment I like the metals for a rebound out of a yearly cycle low to push the weekly stochastics back to overbought. That does’t mean that the bottom occurred today or last Friday. But once it comes I think the rally will drive the stochastics back to overbought and I’ll make money.

    1. ras

      Three points Gary: 1. One man’s experience need not be another man’s experience 2. Just because I can not do something, it is hasty to conclude that nobody else has the talent to do that. 3. Weekly stochastic need not power up monotonically to OB above 80 in one go. It could just go to a level slightly below 80 and back off all the way to 20 to set up a + divergence, if price goes into a rectangle. It is a derived indicator based on price action. So, it is the dog’s tail and tail does not wag the dog.

      I am not interested in shoehorning anybody into a particular view point. I am simply pointing up the risk of depending on one indicator.

      Steel, copper and even nickel stocks are waking up. That is good news for the pm complex. At some point, the pms will make a cyclical low and join the party. It could be anytime between now and January 2017. I expect a bit of sideways action before this sector actually takes off. Once that happens, just hold until gold reaches the upside target you mentioned earlier. Cheers.

    1. Gary Post author

      That is the kind of sentiment we should see at a final yearly cycle low…if it’s any consolation. πŸ™‚

        1. rupp

          Average correction length of this magnitude in gold bulls has been 80+ trading days. Im not even sure it’s been 60 days yet.

          1. tulip

            Robert Flanagan at Gann Financial…. says this correction is long in the tooth…..
            better end v soon….

  41. chrisG

    Go look at GFI. Looks like heading for the lows again. Could be the first. Rest of the miners could later follow suit. Year end coming. Another round of tax loss selling would be lovely. So come year end, could buy dirt cheap

    1. Robert

      Screw that man need it to go back up NOW! Already beaten down to a pulp. There is no need for any lower, if rest of miners follow GFI then I will never trade again, it would prove that the market is a scam

      1. chrisG

        It’s how market works. When low, it can go really very low. And gold is bearish on all time frames. I mean ALL!!!! So? Why be stubborn, or be a smart Alec?

        You can always look to buy when there’s some improvements, and not the rally 50% type of confirmation. There are ways, you just got to learn how.

        1. Robert

          Im screwed already all in! Biggest mistake I ever made thinking that this pullback was done. I guess I will have to wait till Jan or so to recoup some of my money

          1. Pedestrian

            This is the biggest mistake you ever made?

            You obviously never got divorced. Wow, is that ever costly.

    2. Pedestrian

      I will buy GFI at 2.00 bucks again. Hell, why not? There are a lot of miners I want to pick up again since they are all being bludgeoned to a bloody pulp again. Robert, this won’t be much of a consolation either but the market is handing us all a gift right now. There is a SECOND chance to buy gold mines dirt cheap. Try to make the most of it when the time comes. You might find you can recover all your losses. Think of it this way; if gold retests its lows that would qualify as a double bottom and could signal the start of the real gold bull market. Honestly, we should be cheering a metals crash right now and not crying over a few lost bucks on sour trades. This is truly a “make lemonade out of lemons” moment if I ever saw one.

        1. Pedestrian

          Good to see you are cheered up. That’s what I was hoping for. Anyway Robert, we have all been in your shoes before. We all feel for you buddy. Not many here will criticize you since we know the feeling all too well.

        2. daverobson

          Hang in there. I have been there myself bought NUGT in 2013 and took a 90% haircut. Learn from your mistakes. It was a good shakeout this morning… but FOMC minutes tomorrow, Dec FOMC meeting Itialian elections …. wont be easy…

  42. jonsyl

    Gary, with all due respect. You can’t say that all investment is an uncertainty as you did above, and at the same time claim that you, or other similar pundits, have the secret sauce to make a investment call with surgical accuracy. Including a specific buy or sell level, the exact time where this will occur etc etc. Which is it??
    Case in point is what you said elow bhours earlier with ultimate certainty vs what you are now saying, which is some kind of hail mary pass into the future.
    Gary Post author
    November 21, 2016 at 5:18 pm
    If the dollar breaks back below 100.56 we will have a failed breakout. This is often how major market turns occur.

    Gold, silver & the euro completed swing lows today. The yen is completing a swing low this evening. And the dollar completed a swing high.

  43. pacoquin

    Gary, why if Gold perspective is so great, miners that I bought months ago below 1 dollar, which.. I luckily ?? sold at top, 5.. 6 .. 7 dollars.. are facing now prices below 2-3 dollars… which I expected… based in what I follow… and now ready to buy for good rebound ?? Miners and gold no correlation ? doubt it. Thks

  44. Alexandru Popovici

    EURUSD back to 1.0613 but…I have to revert to my opinion yesterday: USX’s swing high will be invalidated before the daily cycle rolls over, so that tomorrow we may have a bloodbath in EUR πŸ˜‰

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      VIX to kiss its 200dma as stocks move in the anticipated HCL.
      Utility stocks closer and closer to delivering the weekly swing low.

    2. terrywg


      you’re not expecting gold to move down in conjunction with the euro? price action today looks like gold is retracing its morning wedge from yesterday. lower projection is 1198 (which will surely trigger stops), but i remember you saying that you don’t think it will make lower lows. any reason for this?

    1. Pedestrian

      Labu took a big dive in the last hours and is now popping right off the 50 simple. Could that be its bottom?

    1. Pedestrian

      Careful Herman. Watch the volumes on GDX or something similar. They have not been this low all year so there is plenty of indecision with neither buyers or sellers making a commitment right now.

      1. Pedestrian

        Weird day. If my eyes are reading the bars correctly, you would have to go all the way back to December 24th 2015 to see such low volumes on GDX. And that was a day most traders were away from their desks getting ready for Christmas day. Of course, one month later GDX took off like a rocket. I don’t think that’s the story this time though. A steep plunge in mining stocks may lie directly ahead of us this time.

  45. Herman

    what drove gold down will drive it up again. I am getting ready for the final leg up in this bear market rally.

  46. Alexandru Popovici

    EURUSD tomorrow in 1.04 territory.

    fomc minutes have the gift of switching te correlation btw usd-spx.
    thus tomorrow stocks down to HCL and USD up to higher high through thursday.
    sorry do not have time to answer.

    ps: for me the current position of FAZ suffices. to add more in 2w on a bull trap in stocks

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      GBP to remainthe only currency not to fall to lower low as USX moves higher tomorrow – GBPUSD is in a new daily cycle.
      EURGBP on the other hand should bottom tomorrow on day 21.

  47. Don

    The botechs are not acting like a they are going to be leading the market up in parabolic fashion, a Gary has suggested several times. I am into LABD as I see that sector most likely to take a big hit when the stock market rolls over.

  48. duckwhorocks1

    The global band bubble burst has created significantly higher real (inflation adjusted) yields. That creates a headwind for Gold in all currencies. It is feasible to me that Gold goes down in all currencies until real yields fall. That can happen if bond prices increase OR actual inflation rises.

  49. jonsyl

    gold obviously coiling for a move of some consequence. Anything below 1205 sell, anything over 1220 buy. Dollar is finally showing some sign of consolidating rather than pushing up. A sharp reversal with a 1220 plus gold push will give a temporary lift to miners.

  50. duckwhorocks1

    As previously mentioned, I will stop posting if Gold does not reach $1,199 by end of NOvember/First week of December. I think this will break down even more severely and target the $1,140-$1,160 area where a long term bottom COULD be formed.

  51. Goild

    Thank all for the comments; they help to calibrate and grow.
    They said it costs about $1200 to produce a gold’s ounce. Since 2013 gold seems to be going around $1200.
    So it appears gold is in a critical state. I am long in NUGT but will execute stop as soon as it breaks through. On the other hand, one of these days Gold can do a big jump. I would hate more to lose the jump than to lose a bit. At this point there is great potential worth the gamble. A trader is supposed to trade the probabilities, what are they today for gold?

  52. zbigkid

    Gary’s video and thesis on CRB bottoming, is interesting, but when he starts talking about ‘inflation’ he loses credibility. We have trillions in global debt overhang, that funded history’s largest construction boom in China from 2011 to 2014. More cement was created, and laid, than in the USA during the entire 20th century, during that 3 year period. Think of the capacity overbuild then, not just in cement, but in concrete, steel, and every other commodity that goes along with that sort of construction boom. So we’ve had nothing but sheer goosing of global markets since 2000, with nothing but debt, which means any possible growth in commodities can only come from even more debt issued. It just ain’t gonna happen, when the world is awash in $50 trillion or more in debt, that can be barely be serviced with zero interest rates, which is so freaking deflationary its not even funny. Any ‘bottoming’ at this point, is nothing more than a totally dead and nuked cat bounce. And i can assure you since, I’m in the energy business directly, with 32 years experience, oil has not escaped from being dragged back down to the 30’s or even 20’s. There is so much BS on peak oil, its utterly stupid, and us insiders know for a fact, that we are drowning in seas of oil just here in the US. Fracking and shale oil is barely touching the tip of the iceberg for potential, and we just saw the largest ever oil discovery, in Texas yet again, in the Permian basin, where everyone thought that had been over-explored and sucked dry. Nothing could be further from the truth, unless of course you believe in the fairy tail that oil comes from dead dino’s. Its abiotic, which is why many of those prior wells abandoned in the 70’s, have actually refilled, and fracking is allowing us to reap the rewards faster. Technology wise, we are just getting started, and the costs are dropping on a near monthly basis, getting below $50/ barrel for the first time for fracking in the late part of summer. Its a huge race, which the US is winning. Trump’s timing could not have been better, and the Saudi’s will never be able to cut back, bc they will lose market share to us. We’ll be exporting a lot within 3 years. Trust me on this folks. The current ‘deal making’ aside, there is just no chance oil can stay above $50. We are in a new multi-decade trading band for oil, where the top will be around $50 to $60, and the low will bounce off of $20 and $30 range. Look back over long term charts and you will see how we repeatedly get in multi-decade trading bands in oil. The spikes we saw back around 2006 to 2008, we totally due to QE, and nothing else. Probably wont see those prices until 2050, when the dollar has decreased in value over time.

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