42 thoughts on “Just Waiting on the Dollar

  1. duckwhorocks1

    I can use google translate if you like and post in a language you can comprehend. Gold follows USD/JPY 3 TIMES more than the USD index. So your chart means nothing. Run R square analysis over different time frames and you will see what I mean

    1. victor

      it’s running tick by tick, I always keep open USD/JPY running chart next to gold/miners and watching copper to see where silver ar going to move…

      1. duckwhorocks1

        Right on….In fact the slight correlation Gold shows to the Dollar Index is when the rest of the Index is flat and USD/JPY is driving the changes in the index.

        1. Pedestrian

          Agree Duck. I could not read gold effectively by watching the dollar. Yen is absolutely essential but it seems no matter how often that is repeated others just don’t cotton on. I am not talking about Gary either by the way. It is virtually the entire gold bug community and the zealots that lead to confuse them who have been sold on the dollar/gold relationship that was more useful years in the past. Sometimes its just better not to learn from out of date books. Better yet some would have more luck not reading whatever popular gold myth is being propagated on the web during any given week. Sadly, most novices cling on to the popular ideologues that spout on about the Indian wedding season, war in the Middle East, German gold repatriation, supply and demand, mining costs, COT reports and etc etc etc (the list is truly endless). When in fact all those poor saps really needed to do was ignore all the noisy chatter and just focus on the yen correlation for good trading signals. Not that it has been perfect all along but it sure has saved my bacon from making a few bad trade entries and exits.

  2. daverobson

    Gary what are the chances a new Intermediate cycle in dollar has started . With a cut in corporate taxes and domestic infrastructure spending dollar is going higher and gold much lower . Could this just be a bear market rally in gold ?

    1. Gary Post author

      The dollar hasn’t delivered even one failed daily cycle yet or broken the intermediate trend line. The ICL is still in front, not behind.

    2. tulip

      do you believe with all the debt and all the infrastructure spending…..
      gold will go down….?????????????????????
      not to mention the Treasury purchasing the S&P………………………………?

  3. stockpick

    I have no idea hy you think USD is ready to roll over when the trading action yesterday and today shows the strength in USD.

    Just look at the USD chart you posted……and it shows a nice cup formation….bullish from what i can tell.

  4. victor

    repeating this again guys: if Trump’s 100 presidential days plan starting to implement we will see US stocks and dollar are going to be in great demand all around the world and I don’t think gold to rise. I wish Canada has something like this plan…

  5. duckwhorocks1

    Gary 107 on the USD/JPY…like I called it at 100 USD/JPY and you said JPY was gonna strengthen.
    Will I get the fabled Burrito at 110 or you gonna renege?

  6. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, I agree w/ you that the ICL of USD is in front of us and that gold should skyrocket.
    All except their timing 🙂
    USX will produce its YCH in early DEC, we still have 3w for it to run its course and for gold to bottom in YCL.

    PS: Damn, Trump’s [unpopular] win made me dump good trades yesterday at the open.

  7. Dreamer

    Trump will not put an end to the PM price suppression scheme and controlled markets by the PPT.

    Trump needs this to continue so he can implement his tax cuts, replace Obamacare, renegotiate trade agreements, repatriation of trillions of overseas corporate dollars, etc.

    It’s impossible or difficult to do all this if stock market and bond markets sell off big time with a huge wipe out of trillions of wealth. So Trump needs the PPT to continue all this market intervention.

  8. Alexandru Popovici

    SURF CITY, miners/gold’s current South movements were what I was talking about 2 days ago: even if gold was on day 22 and you warned about its lateness, I was confident (while expecting a Hillary win) that we could safely ride our gold shorts into daily cycles extended through the end of this week.

  9. Robert

    Screw gold what kind of bull market is this. If it was in a bull market there wouldnt be these huge drawdowns. How the hell ur supposed to make money like this Gary?

    1. victor

      if you’d read Trumps plan you don’t need Druckenmiller to see that, my next move will be 30% out of gold into US companies.

    2. Pedestrian

      Holy Mother of Santa. Now that’s quite a statement from Druck. He must be reading the same charts as me.

  10. Don

    Covering all TLT shorts. Buying more sliver and platinum. I seriously doubt the S&P will make a new high…close maybe but not a new high.

  11. Dreamer

    The only question is can they stop stagflation or hyperinflation regardless of what trump and Congress do.
    Greenspan said this morning that stagflation is what he is worried about.
    Don’t like the guy but he must be getting some religion at his old age.

    1. Pedestrian

      Dreamer, it is quite literally impossible to have a hyperinflation in a country with the primary reserve currency. I don’t just say that to be irritating. It is a fact. There is so much mythology on that topic that some of its proponents drive me batty listening to them. Like that guy who is sometimes on Greg Hunters site. What’s his name? He keeps a log of inflation figures based on how it was originally calculated. (sorry it evades me now but he lives in his basement with his Mom and he is about 65 years old!). Anyway, as long as you can print a currency that is good enough to be used to buy any commodity anywhere in the world and your currency is considered equal in value to any product that might be purchased then the hyperinflationary genie will never be released. It is a mathematical impossibility. The Fed could create another 10 trillion out of thin air and the market (which is global, not just domestic) would just soak it all up. Hell, there is a worldwide shortage of dollars at this time. It is why another round of QE is virtually certain because demand is there and it may be the only way to stem the dollar strength that is coming. EG: demand must be met with more supply).

  12. chrisG

    There is another that makes gold a dangerous investment. That is the power of banks. When banks rally big, gold tends to underperform

  13. theworldwithoutfacebook

    Gold looks like toast, Killed my portfolio this week. Couldn’t bank premarket when everyone else was.

    1. Pedestrian

      All I can say is thank you God it came back down in a day because I was getting my ass KICKED election night and we sweated bullets off that initial vertical ramp. It was real a nail biter since I usually drink my own Koolaide. I hardly slept to be truthful. Anyway, I lived to see another day and all is well again.

    1. Pedestrian

      Yes Chris. Same on GDXJ and on that chart the 200 week has been broken to the downside. Not good if you are bullish miners. If the safe havens of gold and yen are selling off the miners are in for a whole lot of pain.

  14. Gary Post author

    With the Nasdaq possibly printing a key reversal and a potential double top I’m wondering if stocks may still have one more daily cycle before the final ICL is printed.

    I don’t like the current COT levels and neither the banks nor the semi’s delivered anything even vaguely resembling an ICL.

    Now I’m starting to wonder if this election rally was manufactured to allow big money to escape at the top ahead of a more severe selloff.

    I always thought the Obama administration would want to hand Trump a real mess in January if he won. Part of that would surely include pulling support for the stock market.

    This could get interesting over the next several days.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      Stocks’ renewed fall has nothing to do with Trump – yesterday’s and today’s markets’ actions have revealed that to me.

      Proof stand that it has been easy to anticipate:
      – an ICL last week,
      – then a VIOLENT rise this week and
      – then a fall to YCL till the beginning of DEC, not more.

  15. Don

    If Obama wanted to hand a “mess’ to Trump, I would think that he would prersure the FED to stop it’s support for the stock market and to raise rates sooner than later. The insiders have had there chance to get out and now it’s the retail crowd that’s holding the bag.

    1. Pedestrian

      If Obama was going to make Trump miserable he would start a war with Russia in Syria and then hand him the consequences. I really hope they don’t go that route but with the big carriers circling off the coast nothing is assured between now and Trumps first day in office.

  16. Dreamer

    Would Trump reset the gold price to $10,000/oz to reduce/mitigate the $20T in debt and to re-inflate the economy. Pay lots of the debt off with re-inflated dollars. Then after he accomplishes this after enough time passes, he could release the gold price back to the market. This assumes the U.S. has the gold they say they have.

  17. rupp

    Gold selling for as much as $2,200 in India and zero hedge claims shop supply running low. Grain of salt and all…..

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