The Nasdaq 100 is at risk of signaling a failed intermediate cycle.
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THE SCORCH !
Two weeks and a half of gains, two weeks and a half of dumb investors’ hopes, of joy garnered one day after another for each small daily uptick, simply …erased in 2 sessions, altogether 🙂
I might have missed it Alex but what exactly does that mean?
My quasi real time post: I shorted GDX at 3:58 p.m. Eastern time yesterday then went to bed (hence, not posting at that hour in my time zone!!). Small position size for risk control.
I see the GDX is within a few pennies of yesterday’s close prior to the employment report & the outcome is still as unknown as it was yesterday — so we still don’t know which way it’s gonna go after 8:30 a.m.
I got up around 3:40 p.m. yesterday and speed-analyzed my charts and both GDX and gold, especially the former, looked like they were pointing down. Once the entry was made, I felt good about it.
I do concur with Gary RE going long gold/miners: Wait for a weekly swing — as a minimum!
yes, but provided that the weekly swing occurs AFTER FOMC or one risks running on roller coaster tracks.
Will the almost certain no vote in Italian referendum spur gold to at least the 1220 level?
PS: I’m still of the opinion that this move down into the YCL for precious metals is a wave B, of one degree or another, i.e.: BEAR TRAP! It may very well not be ready to reverse on the YC degree, even though it may do so on the DC degree, clobbering bulls and bears alike, if they hang on to their trades too long!
Yes, after yesterdays action, I am not going to buy the SM until new highs too. Something is not quite right about market. I have started partially shorting the Russell.
How does one “partially” short anything?
Alex
“yes, but provided that the weekly swing occurs AFTER FOMC or one risks running on roller coaster tracks.”
Yes! See my subsequent PS, which I was writing at the same time you were writing the above.
I believe we’re on the same wavelength here, though arriving there via different routes: You by your classic TA, and I by way of math & science 🙂
I haven’t been paying attention to the stock market at all the past 2 months, though wish I had!!
Too much going on in my life during that time — I’ve only been looking at the gold & miners.
PPS: This type of complex bear trap is characterized by lots of B’s & X’s (“corrections to the correction”) — hence, lots of times the move will reverse, sometimes even enough to form a daily swing, only to peter out just as swing seekers are feeling safe enough to re-enter the waters. Then they get clobbered when the subsequent move fails to take exceed the move that produced the swing, & their account gets beaten to a pulp.
One way or another, don’t let that happen to you!
I am out of gold trading altogether now that gold revealed me the last couple of days that it is still in a bear market – it’s rise to 1378 in July was so sharp because it was a major multi-year-cycle advance.
Kondratieff Springs do not benefit gold, at least not in their incipient phase.
Gold tends to rise in the midst of the Spring, just as gold started (on the unofficial market due to the Bretton Woods $37 peg) to rise against USD in the late ’50s as money supply in US increased via lending vs gold’s supply.
So, historically, it makes sense for Gold to still be in Bear until we reach the “April” of the new K-Wave.
Zkot, yes, SM acts 98% as I have been anticipating for one month and a half, in early OCT, with the subsequent amendment I made seeing The Scorch into JAN:
– down in a ICL in early NOV,
– up violently in a new shortened one-daily-cycle IC,
– then down to YCL.
You’ve been sharp with your gold trading framework. I admire you!
I am studying EW too based on your live example.
that being said, it is more likely that SM will [temporarily] rise next week to put in the Christmas Bounce if a YES-vote on Italian Referendum.
SM is smartmoney or stock market :)?
stock market
Among the miners it seems that GDX shows clearer a mini H&S inverted pattern with resistance at 20.13 which was the low on 11/14. Without considering undercuts and the ratio of gold/nugt at the high was about 42, yesterday it reached about 33. Though the market this time is very different than at the beginning of the year. The miners overall look like going up, though in contrast the inverse DUST is showing a wedge down. So today appears like a positive day. Good trading to all.
No kidding. 3 weeks rally peters out. November low could be at risk.
NFP neutral. 4.6% unemployment (down).
No big market moves today?
Taking a $5 profit on my 6 loco opened yesterday. Gold is looking weak as hell
Honestly duck, there’s no need to be rude. You come here and advertise your blog, and Gary has the courtesy and forbearance to let you post whatever you want. A little respect goes a long way. Traders get it wrong sometimes, it’s normal in any extended investment horizon.
I’m going to watch the stock market closely from here to the FOMC meeting. The market was never allowed to fall into an FOMC meeting during Obama’s terms. If the move into the half cycle low runs to completion and then the Fed raises rates into the teeth of a sharp correction I would say the current admin is preparing to hand Trump the s**t sandwich scenario I’ve been expecting for his inauguration.
Now that will be interesting to watch.
I second that. Put him under the gun right out of the gate.
I’ll believe it when I see it though.
Politics is a tricky and murky area. It could happen the way you envision. I do not wish to go there. I depend only on price. Looking at the ferocity of soxl decline, my GUESS is that eventually Nov low will give way and we could visit June lows for a starter. I would also lighten up in the pm sector as the bounce matures. Cheers.
Can you guys elaborate on the reaction of gold to the upcoming interest rate increase?
Would be nice to read several comments to get a consensus.
Thanks.
Just fyi. A common misconception is rising rates bad for gold. But actually, if you look at 1977, rates started raising, gold also rallied. They both rallied big together. The thing was, even with rising rates, USD was dropping then, hence helping gold. So, the simpliest is still watching USD. And USD needs to drop for PMs to do well.
I think Adam Hamilton wrote an article about rising interest rates being good for gold. Its probably on his website somewhere.
Adam Hamilton and Clive maund are just wordsmiths, writing essays on pms. Nothing actionable except disclaimers at the end of their missives. I would just ignore them. Gary would beat them hands down any day.
Agree with those sentiments Ras. I hate reading those guys. Waste of my time.
Everyone wins when there are good debates and contrary opinions.
We could probably all learn to be more tolerant and understanding of others and a little less judgmental.
I hate to see you go.
Duck, its ok to voice, criticize, or complement. Just dont advertising own blog on others blog and all is fine 😉
See you there.
See you there Duck.
There is a of value on the discussions on this blog. Duck has a bright mind, hopefully he does not evaporate.
Duck is a DICK!
Whatever value he states herein is completely invalidated by his sarcasm directed at Gary.
Its like inviting him to your house, offering him a cup of coffee, and he proceeds to talk shit about you on your own coach!
He needs to go away!
PS He’s one of the worst types of internet trolls..
he is a bit trollish, but it is ALWAYS good to here counterarguments, especially when they are supported with facts and figures.
thats why garys blog is so relevant
AG!!!! I just know, i am so confused by gold whipsawing, i felt so giddy. So I always try to avoid being stubborn. My golden question is “What is the least stressful thing to play now”. And it seemed like some stocks are more easier then others. Some just rise steadily. Held up better than others. My method of observation leads me to AG.
Well, sure hope it sticks!!!.
PS: My same methodology led me to park my funds into Steel stocks weeks ago, instead of fighting tooth and nail over gold. Sure made me giddy bucks.
Look at Morris Hubbart today on 321…
AG
Interesting to see this morning miners correlating with SPY.
This can be ominous.
Fior most of the last 16 years gold and stocks have gone up together. They did so again during the first half of the year.
Yes, I agree, keeping the standards up is a priority. Respect for the host and all contributors is #1.
My status is that I got earlier to 100% in NUGT (which is about 20% of my account). So if gold breaks through 1180 we indeed may have a hammer for the week.
Good trading to all.
It looks like AG has broken out of its diamond bottom consolidation. (Whoever spotted that diamond pattern the other day, good job.)
Right now it is actually trading above its rising 50 WMA. If it closes above the 50 WMA today, I will take that as a very positive sign, although I would be surprised if some selling didn’t come in by end of day to take us below that MA. The 50 WMA is by far the most critical MA for the miners to recapture, generally speaking.
I am 100% long AG, EXK, ISVLF, AXU.
I need to go now. Though past immediate history in the market is often a good predictor,
USD is behaving like yesterday. It may end up lower today,
Cheers.
Notice also the straight line in USD downfall since yesterday. May be the big pockets are dumping it.
I wouldn’t quite call it a waterfall.
A move back to the 20 dma is very normal after such a run. Also, yen is getting a small bid after getting reamed. I can’t imagine such a massive and swift decline just flipping on a dime. But who knows.
Gary called it
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/i/io0jcwQz.png
Accumulation, then stops then pop..
If the gold miners indexes can hold onto this morning’s gains, technically, they look good at least for the shorter term.
$hui needs to stay above the 100 WMA, which it is right now. That is an absolutely critical MA to maintain.
From there, if we can recapture the rising 50 WMA, that will be huge. The 50 WMA will define this bull.
you add a lot Spanky.. good to have u here..
Gold is going up folks and the stock market is in for a big correction. That said, the miners may not provide the returns that one might expect when gold rises. I prefer to buy silver and platinum.
Agreed, there are no guarantees. But the trend is your friend, and since January 2016, miners have blown away the metals in terms of performance. And if you look at say junior silver miners, the gap is gigantic.
Spanky, go back a few more years and measure their performance. Not so hot.
Don, the miners may do better….
I say bottoms in! All of you guys calling for an undercut are gonna miss out on this rally if your not already in! There might be a small dip comin today because miners overbought now so that will be your last chance!
That’s the spirit, Robert!!
yesterday semis (SOXX) erased in 1 day rises through as many as 3 weeks 🙂 in just 1 day …invalidating the breakout
financials will follow on Monday on the most likely (but not tradable) outcome of a NO to the Italian referendum.
NASDAQ is the weak link here as it never broke its Yearly Cycle uptrend out of the Brexit Low. Been shorting it with QID for the last two days.
Here is my update on Stock (SPX is my proxy):
https://surfcity.co/2016/12/01/spx-cycle-update/
Post on Bonds (TLT):
https://surfcity.co/2016/12/01/bond-yearly-cycle-update/
My thoughts on Gold’s Yearly Cycle. I believe the YCL is very close but first we need to see a strong move back above 1200.
https://surfcity.co/2016/12/01/gold-yearly-cycle/
Let’s hear from Duck. I would like to hear what he may have to say about the stock market and oil.
I suspect Duck has left his (her?) last post. Seems a shame. I enjoyed the back and forth as Duck has some great ideas and interesting insights. But I will have to side with Gary here if he has pulled the plug since he has already been featured negatively in the new blog. What’s the point of that? Seems like wasted energy to me when there is so much interesting stuff to discuss.
BTW Duck, that is a photo of bees on your blog header. Golden bees naturally and I liked the picture. Bees are not technically bugs though because unlike bugs they provide significant economic services to the natural world and ecosystem while providing a valuable source of surplus sugar as a byproduct of their efforts. Bugs on the other hand are economic pests that cause damage to crops. Ask any farmer which is which and you will get a quick answer. The differences are defined by their mouth parts. Bees can chew for example and have a tongue for drawing nectar whereas bugs are insects that have sucking mouths and are economic pests. I don’t want to bug! you too much about this but lets not mix up an amazing creature like a bee with the damaging impacts of cockroaches, termites or locusts!!!
PS: I’m baaaaack.
Gary, you say that you wouldn’t buy stocks unless the Nasdaq rallies and makes a new high. INow I am confused. Isn’t that exactly what you have been telling us NOT to do (as in waiting for confirmation and then buying on a breakout )?
I like to buy at cycle lows.
Here’s the scenario where I would be willing to buy stocks. First the Nasdaq would need to recover the breakout. Then it would need to make a higher high. If it does that then I would be willing to buy at the next DCL, NOT on a breakout.
Why not play the SM short term trend in place?
miners and leveraged plays like nugt, showing a lot of enthusiasm relative to gold performance which has been lack lustre. Got in a couple days ago and so far so good. However this relative outperformance needs gold to perk up soon. Another downdraft below 1160 will w. ipe out the miner outperformance in a heartbeat
equities (spx) continue to look tired but no implusive move to confirm a selloff in spite of nasdaq performance over last couple days. Alex scorch keeps getting delayed.
Looking good …
Non dimenticare le elezioni di Domenica, bel weekend
Gold is dead. Cash is king.
Tchau baby 😆
Yeah, gold is dead but it sure looks good for a bounce here. I love the sentiment levels. And the fact gold keeps hitting right on its Fib number looks hopeful. The best part though is that calendar changes often bring important reversals in their wake. In this case we would want to look most closely at the first Monday on the new calendar meaning December 5th for some kind of rally to get going. Volumes are respectable today on the ETF’s in spite of golds sluggishness, platinum is giving us a thumbs up to buy and silver has a nice rounding pattern turning up. All in all it looks like a good day to buy. I will wait for the next pullback a little later in the day. I am green lighting this one for myself. I can eat Crow on Monday if I am wrong.
And then there is this:
Look at the TSI in this chart from Fullgoldcrown. Notice its forming a nice inverse head and shoulders? I love this stuff!
https://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/gdx111.png
SURF, stocks shrug heavy buying on weakness.
Such action plus a NO-vote to Italian referendum would blow the HCL assumption into an YCL-in-JAN assumption.
anyway, even if a HCL is put, so strong BOWs are indicative of an ICH, hence of an imminent IC decline (a shortened IC – as expected).
alex, no vote in Italy is all but assured by the polls yet little or no real effect on the market. Consider the market possibility of no vote acting to drive a continuing flight to US dollar, pushing equities up at least temporarily
maybe
So here is the dilemma. Let the shares in for Monday or dump some.
Mondays are more uncertain.
Gold has not broken the 1180 resistance. USD has slightly go through support.
Is today a bull trap preparation?
What is the take?
You are not asking me but I think NUGT has a 50% bounce in store over the short term. After that its down we go again for another butt kicking. But who the hell really knows? We just do our best to calculate the odds and then throw the dice.
I really like all the negativity on gold right now though. Perfect setup. So yeah, I took a position a few minutes ago and damn the torpedoes. I feel pretty good about it too if you want to know. Zero doubts. But then again I felt the same thing on my wedding night and look how that turned out!! LOLOL!!!
Looks like Gary’s prediction could play out about the market raining on the president-elect parade on the inauguration day. SM could quicken its down move over the next 6-7 days. Wonder how the interest rate hike would play out!
Thanks Pedestrian for the comments.
A guess the manipulators would not be contempt with crumps. A sound bull trap needs to go higher as per when NUGT was around $15. So I think I will let the shares in and act whenever it is self evident.
You are welcome.
So are you not going to ask me about my wedding night?
Today, we got another failed retest of gold prices………..more downside next week!
Stockpick,
Can you tell specifically what drives you to that conclusion?
Gold closed above 1/2%, USD is going down.
Weekly swing was expected i.e. gold to close above 1184….didn’t happen…more downside pressure next week!
Silver completed a weekly swing, and it hasn’t dropped below the May low.
Good observation, Gary. SIL looks good to me. Making higher lows and higher highs. Silver showing greater RS than gold.
More downside next week!!! Lol
Ladies COT out. Have tremendous bullish implications. I see Silver $26 next year
More about the dilemma.
I think the issue here is to exercise good trading. Those who went long have a better course of action keeping the shares. A worse case is NUGT gaps to 7.1 and once it breaks through it, stop loss should be executed. But the sell-off would not be immediate and will give a chance to sell 50% at 7.75 likely.
Look, the candle pattern for GLD has positioned as if it can gap up too, and this can be a substantial one.
Since I am here for a great trade, including managing it as needed, I would hate to loose the big jump. If it goes down it might be an opportunity to by at a lower price. Though the pressure to go up is building up day with day.
The dilemma might be a rhetorical question to help think. But likely is a pitfall of what Gary alludes to “the strength of mind to ride a bull market.” This brings a query for Gary: would you please elaborate on the topic of having the strength of mind to ride a bull market and its pitfalls?
Gold correction done. Mission accomplished. Bullish sentiment completely irradicated. Gary was warning about miner’s being too stretched above 200 d moving averages this summer and he said sustainable rally from those levels unlikely. Boy was he right!
The correction kind of rolled over and turned around the last couple of weeks with miner’s hard down spike post election on the 14th and 15th holding and despite new lows in gold, the miner’s not confirming. But the real moment of truth was yesterday morning. If gold was going down further it would have been done it. It tested the level and came back. Thus far all we’ve done is stopped moving down. I held through the correction and bought Jnug and Nugt yesterday and today.
I think next week will be a barn burner for gold. And what if this whole post election rally turns out to be bogus? Duckwhorocks was bugging the crap out of us on this blog but he nailed the turn in gold. Thanks Duck.
Gary, thank you for your patience and for this forum and for sharing your wisdom. Tough part is over. Turn your computers off and let the Bull work.
What is the bullish sentiment indicator saying anyway, BK? Are we near zero percent bulls at this stage? Can’t be because someone was buying today besides you and I. Thought it was curious how NUGT behaved late afternoon. Price was hardly moving at one stage near the end of the day but volumes kept rising. And I thought OH YEAH!!!, those sneaky buggers are pulling a fast one buying up any fear-selling that usually comes late on a Friday but buying no more than necessary so as not to tip off the crowd. And then the day ended almost right on the .618 Fib of 1177 and I knew I was right. So next week brings a reversal in gold and we should get a rally going although whether or not it begins Monday morning is anyone’s guess. For those here with a very good memory you might recall that December 4th 2015 was THE low for gold last year and once that was behind us metals took off like a rocket. Will this year repeat? I have no idea but anniversaries can sometimes be important if enough people believe in them. Gold did take another dive on Pearl Harbour day last year but it turned out to be only an attempted retest of the December 4th lows. Go back and look at the charts just for fun. I think it was Dec 5th or 6th that brought us a very nice up-day that broke 1100.00 dollars coming off an intraday low of sub 1050 so this coming Monday might just be equally rewarding if we merely rhyme and not precisely repeat. Anyway, I am in for the ride but will be ready on the sell button if it does not hold.
Well, with a glass of wine and things considered I added 25% to NUGT for 125% shares.
The miners have broken through the daily averages.
I got the 25% NUGT shares at 8.54 currently they are at 8,58-8,60; greed starts to work.
I am in the same zone. Picked them up at 8.45 but wished I had bought earlier in the day since I had kind of made my mind up to do it already anyway. I was sold on my own philosophy basically. Drinking my own Kool-Aide so to speak. Its not that scientific sometimes but I had good reasons. All the best to you Goild. Fingers crossed now till next week.
Further, we have a classical candle reversal pattern. There is still a bit more time to get more shares today.
@Chris, you are right. Expect a correction next week then move up higher but do not sit there and wait for 1400$ in gold. Guys, cold turkey is insane and is not going to work. Guessing the market and hoping is not going to work. Blaming on manipulation is not going to work. Technical will give you the top and bottom formations on various time frames. You need to manage your own money.
@the person who said Gary is right. After being so deadly wrong over and over, of course “Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while”.
Hahahaha…well put!
For those of you who bash ducky:
http://goldbugspray.blogspot.com/2016/12/who-is-gary-savagetoby-connor.html
Is Duck Birdman?
it is duckwhorocks. http://goldbugspray.blogspot.com/2016/12/my-problem-with-gary-savagetoby-connor.html
Someone said Gary used to be an ex owner of a mens strip club. hmmm!
I don’t see any problem with that at all. What’s the issue?
No issue in what anyone does for a living. Just posted what I see.
looks like I see you here first time but you already start stinking …, it’s a wrong forum for you, trying promote duck’s blog like this you will achieve just opposite…
Victor, your naivety is your worse enemy. Nope, I am not promoting duck, Alex or anyone. Just pointing out the facts and what I came across. GL with your holdings.
Perfect. Now we can troll him. Only nobody gives a rats ass about his site or his opinion.
that guy is a dick in the worst possible way. Obviously he does not know he could easily get sued for libel, and defamation just by using that blog as evidence. He’ll implode and be his own demise.
So you calling him the cock who rocks?
OK, sorry to be a little snide. Maybe I should just make my point obvious. I was not impressed by that site of yours Duck because it has a negative focus and dredges up material from years ago that adds pretty much nothing to anyones life. I would be happy to drop by and have a read but not if its going to be a Gary bashing site.
Got no time for that. None at all.
My comment there exactly, too
zb, only if duck said the opposite of what Gary is doing but if the truth is proven to be true then you will have no case. With all the posts, I am sure justice will be served appropriately. Duck is speaking his mind, exposing consumer protection. I do think Mr. Savage should apologize to his subscribers.
I bought a basket of GDX, SLV, NUGT, and JNUG earlier in the week.. I was getting a little nervous with the perfect descending pattern on the GDX daily, but seemed to be due to the anticipation of the today’s report. In any case, I’m feeling good about next week. Miner’s price action came off support, fib levels, and good structure..
It was good reading through the thread today, have a good weekend guys..
The bullish sentiment in the gold miners $BPGDM available in the free charts section at stockcharts.com
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPGDM
Yes Ped, the bottom fell out on this one. Gold became downright unpopular and a focus for ridicule. I know I for one have been sick to my stomach for the last several days. No bodily comfort holding and adding to miner longs this week. But although the body is squirming, something in the brain says this is correct. All that emotion flips at inflection points. Hard to see that it’s flipped from bear (or correction) to bull. But on retrospect once the market moves on you can see that there was some pig wedged in there between. And we all know what happens to pigs.
I don’t think we have to time it perfect. Last week? This week? Next week? Get in and hold on.
Hi all
I’m from down-under and have been watching this site for a while. I appreciate the different views that this forum throws up. I’ve not posted much in the past, waiting until I thought that I had something to contribute.
With the FOMC meeting pending in a few weeks with the high probability of a 0.25% rise in interest rates I think that the various markets will pretty much emulate what happen in the same period last year when rates were also raised in December. After a mild santa rally to 29 December the general markets tanked 12% into February. Some markets like the biotech XBI moved down over 30%.
So I’ve started to shed for my Aussie stocks Biotech and other stock in which the Jan/Feb drop was greatest. Here I would like to point out the GDX and XME fell in early January its low was 19th of January and that the rise in both of these categories was pretty spectular over the next few months.
Alex has posted that he think the market will tank early in the new year (scorch) and I agree with him
I also want to point out that in December 2015 the Aussie dollar AUD/USD was 0.73 and that by the 19th of January it fell to 0.687. By April it was up above 0.77c Why bring this up.
If the markets are going to do a rerun of last year. I’m suggesting that rather than buying GDX and XME in mid January that you consider buy the following Aussie stocks. Gold miners NST.ax and EVN.ax (do a comparison GDX to both these stock) and for Metals and Mining XME I recommend IGO.ax , OZL.ax
With these trades you can ride the equivolent of the indexs plus make the gain from the currency movement and thirdly collect the dividends the stock pay early in the year.
So I’m calling a YCL late December early January.
Food for thought.
Although
Usually, gold and silver go down on Mondays, but if they go up on Mondays, they usually reverse and go down on Tuesdays and sometimes thru the rest of the week. That seems to be the pattern that I’ve observed. Also, I have a cycle low coming in around 12/15/16 and a cycle high coming in around 1/3/17. My YCL comes in about 2/1/17. However, for long term investors, who buy physicals, gold and silver are dead, cash is king, long live the king. I think gold will eventually get down to about $800 and silver about $8 before a new bull market commences in the PM sector. Cheers.
Tchau Baby, 😻 😎
Wow what am I missing? Apparently Duck got banned for his comments and now im seeing a controversial blog saying pretty bad things about Gary lol! I liked duck comments but seriously lets try to help each other, I want to here everyones beliefs about gold now. Dead cat bounce or is the bear market over? Gary should say something tho kinda looks bad on him what is being said.
That’s the problem with the internet and trolls. They can make up any lie they want and no one can stop them. All I can do is expel them from my site when they become too offensive.
Within 2-3 months they will all look very stupid because I’m going to be correct. The bull market is going to correct all timing mistakes and the metal portfolio will be up at least a couple hundred percent.
Before saying gold going to 800, or 80 , silver to 8 or 0.8 for all that matters, key is to ask and examine if CRB has bottomed? If u have some basic skills, u know CRB bottomed. Even if it doesn’t, the least u could see is a multi month rally. All these means, forget about PMs making new bottoms.
And Robert, the biggest tip I could give u is, eventually, u want to Not listen to any others for 90% of the time. The more you listen, the more you lose. That’s why 90% of traders lose money
I hope Gary is right, I like the music of at least 200%
Preparing for the rate increase
Thanks for commenting on the possible reaction of gold to the upcoming rate increase.
ChirsG points out to watch the USD as an indicator/strategy.
WallStreetJesus
Points at Adam Hamilton who can be found at
http://www.zealllc.com/2015/goldfrhk.htm
and who wrote:
“The bottom line is contrary to the popular belief today, rising- and higher-rate environments are actually very bullish for gold. Rather than making a zero-yielding asset look relatively less attractive, rate hikes serve to hammer conventional stock and bond markets. This leads investors to seek alternatives that rally in times of general-stock weakness. And gold has always been the leading safe-haven investment.”
Then LiesandDamnLies writes that market may emulate what happened last December on the 0.25% interest rate increase.
On December 14th and 15th 2015 the gold market was going down. Then the rate increase was on December 16th 2015 and that day the gold market gapped up forming a long legged Doji pattern.
On December 17th the gold market felt sharply to follow the previous trend, to then recover the following days and start the uptrend.
The miners went still through a bear trap/undercut to the lowest price on January 20th, thus lagging gold’s bottom for about one month! And, and, and the master manipulators inflicted the most pain on the miners when gold was already going well off the bottom and above the daily averages!!! The miners bottom correlated with the first market low on January 20th, but did not mirror the second market low of February 11th. Weird, now we have gold lagging the miners?!
The next FOMC meeting will be on December 13th-14th.
Thus what is the take on smart trading gold on 12/14th ?
As per the level of pain the manipulators can inflict on the miners (NUGT) take a look at the numbers for GLD, NUGT, and SPY for several key dates. The percentage changes are relative to the prices on January 4th 2015 before the final master traps were set. Here the traps refer to the miners.
Prices at day close (NUGT was split later by 5)
When GLD NUGT SPY
GLD bottom 12/17 100 4.42 205
Before bull trap 1/4 103 5.27 201
Top of bull trap 1/7 106 (+3%) 6.15 (+17%) 194 (-3.5%)
Retracement 1/14 103 (0%) 4.20 (-20%) 192 (-4.5%)
Bear trap bottom 1/20 105 (+2%) 3.58 (-32%) 186 (-7.5%)
SPY low 2/11 119 (+15.5%) 10.53 (+100%) 183 (-9%)
GLD was even on 1/14th but pain on NUGT was -20%, and to kill all on 1/20th at -32% when GLD was at +2%. Or changing reference at -19% relative to NUGT’s price on 12/17th at GLD’s bottom.
Looking at the bright side, gratification with the miners can be simply awesome if one is right! (and provided one does not screw oneself second guessing the miners).
Though let us focus on bad news.
A near worst case scenario might be then NUGT at -32% of $8.52 or about at $5.8.
The plan is to dump 50% of the shares at ~$7.70, and then dump the reminding shares according to the actual events. Perhaps going short at breaking through ~$7.1 with momentum.
Here is the table again; sorry for the entry.
Prices at day close (NUGT was split later by 5)
When GLD NUGT SPY
GLD bottom 12/17 100 4.42 205
Before bull trap 1/4 103 5.27 201
Top of bull trap 1/7 106 (+3%) 6.15 (+17%) 194 (-3.5%)
Retracement 1/14 103 (0%) 4.20 (-20%) 192 (-4.5%)
Bear trap bottom 1/20 105 (+2%) 3.58 (-32%) 186 (-7.5%)
SPY low 2/11 119 (+15.5%) 10.53 (+100%) 183 (-9%)
Sorry, again I cannot fix the table as the site reformats it.