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Sentiment for the Gold complex is extremely bearish. Here is my analysis of Gold last three Yearly Cycle Lows.
Happy New Year to everyone as we start 2017. 😉
Thanks for the analysis. It actually shows gold is bullish for the next couple of months 😊
It might be a seasonal effect.
Hmm interesting. I hadn’t noticed the retests.
That might be a low risk reentry this week if we start off lower tomorrow.
Surf – kudos to your analysis.
Gary – Those look like relatively violent spike down moves (those are daily charts). I think a lower start tomorrow would need to be an aggressive spike down to be consistent with last 3 YCLs.
just buy now.. dont try to time the gold low
Nuts to that.
The number for re-entry is ~1125 I think.
Yes we could see a spike down to the 1125 and even an intraday spike to the 1117 level perhaps during an intraday retest. Most of the retests show a strong intraday rally after the retest.
The spike on 2014 was quite a scary one and here the manipulators made sure to profit the most. I wonder how was the volume on those spikes.
Prior to 2016 gold was clearly in a channel which appears to be broken on 2016. Perhaps we will have now an upward channel ranging from the current low to the Election Day night.
Gold is up this evening.
Considering the quick correction back to the previous channel, the take is that it is likely we will channel this week between $1150-$1165. Then a killing hook/spike to $1125 may take place, but I doubt it due to the quick correction. The manipulators, I think, would not offer another super deal price on gold.
There are too many people just waiting to get into the bandwagon. It is becoming clearer that indeed gold/miners have mostly an upward direction, I believe.
“We were told to not miss a trend”
“You know, it is a bull market”
not sure it is a bull mkt yet
Gold is now ~0.5% up. Gapping up is not out of the scenario either.
Why so much attention to gold/miners right now?
Because this might be the very best and great deal around.
Volume backs it up.
Still not seeing any change. Keep smoking that hopium….
Thanks for the warning Surf and Gary. Sold my miners this morning and sitting on the sidelines at the moment to see what plays out.
I warned subs that we could get an intervention in stocks that might pressure gold and it sure looks like the DCL has been aborted this morning before it could ever generate any modestly bearish sentiment or downside momentum.
I think we now have the answer to whether we will get free markets with the Trump administration, and the answer is no.
Staying on the sidelines in gold for now.
Obama is still in charge so why are you saying this is the trump, administration propping up the market today and how would they do that when they have yet to take power?
I don’t see any benefit for the dems keeping the market propped up at this point. They would just be doing Trump a favor. I have to assume the PPT has decided that it should be business as usual for the new administration.
dems doing Trump a favor? Gary, are you serious?
??? Did you read the post?
Gary, you believe everything “the post” says?
IF that is the case then one should be loaded up in the SM.
This might start the crash phase in bonds though.
On your COT question. You really need to calculate the blees. I do not have it presently
Blees rating predicting a decline is 0-40
Blees rating predicting 71-100 is rally
Blees rating predicting Direction change 50-70
Formula for counting the blees number:
Commercial shorts-commercial longs= X
X-last 2 years minimum X number=Y
Last 2 years maximum X- Last 2 years minimum X =Z
This was actually for Goild
Thank you all for their comments.
Gary thanks for your warning and advice to stay on the sidelines.
ARends thank you for addressing the COT question; I will digest the stuff.
Dday thanks for your technical analysis which I do think is solid.
The change of direction of gold this morning was prompted probably by the USD.
However, gold seems to not care too much about it, and the miners are up, NUGT ~ 3%.
This behavior is not bearish but suggest some strength.
Which shall see.
Good trading to all.
How can USD be plus 1% and the 3X miners plus 3% ?
Did the miners and gold overshot on Friday?
SM is going nuts and mines are a part of the SM.
10years yield up>>>>>>>>dollar up
10years yield up>>>>>>>>gold down
As simple as that. Gold CANNOT go up in dollars terms if treasury rates keep on increasing.
Alex, is USD going to break the ceiling?
10years yield up>>>>>>>>dollar up
10years yield up>>>>>>>>gold down
As simple as that. Gold CANNOT go up in dollars terms if treasury rates keep on increasing.
10m $ question is why is SM going nuts? Gary seems to have hit the nail on the head, PPT! Whatever the reason, it looks like the SM is being prevented from going South. What are the afraid of? Really. Should we expect something drastic in near future? Or, it is just preparation for a large exit before Trump takes over?
OK guys, you are convincing and I am listening to you. Sold three lots at $7.88.
We shall see.
So many just got shafted lol….way to many people here listening to others on what to do, good luck . And lesson learned make your own trading decisions.
ok Alex, where does the scorch stand. You’ve been betting on it since mid november. So much negativism on markets simply because they went up. Gotta see impulsive reversals in vix, dollar first, then we can consider a market slide. Opposite effect on gold, so far nothing more than a consolidation at the lows.
No sir, gold is going up.
So I manage to get thee three lots back with no loss.
How about this to chew on, EVERYTHING GOES UP TOGETHER!…Dollar, Gold, Stocks Bonds, all of it…
Isn’t gold down?
Miners are a part of SM as well, rising tide?
Sure if you call a $1 being down. Way to many Ego trip types on this forum you all want to be right and then you post something stupid such as isn’t gold being down? When one has multiples of thousands of dollars invested I would hardly bark or even embarrass myself over a $1 I mean really.
OK man! If $1 makes your ego feel that gold is up, and you are becoming rich by millions then so be it.
BTW how does you feel about those poor souls who are invested in SM against your smart advise?
OK man! If $1 DOWN makes your ego feel that gold is up, and you are becoming rich by millions then so be it.
BTW how does your ego feel about those poor souls who are invested in SM against your smart advise?
Better get off those sidelines. You can’t catch a fish
if your hook is not in the water.
Can’t afford to be on the sidelines when gold
is in a new bull market.
I don’t think sitting on the sidelines today is a bad idea. If the correction in stocks has been aborted, and it looks like it has, then it won’t hurt to wait a day or two and see how gold reacts.
So you should be going long the SM if you believe the correction has been aborted and you feel the PPT will continue to prevent corrections under the Trump administration, assuming this is what has been preventing corrections for some time now.
brianbreeze it does look like a PPT action. Doesn’t it? But, why did they do it at this particular point?
Vin maybe they are not afraid of anything just want to keep the market up. If you believe there is a PPT and it has kept the market from correcting a number of times in 2016 why would they not continue to help the market out going forward? If there is a PPT protecting the market from corrections then one should be long the SM. The question though is whether there really is a PPT that prevents the market from correcting or whether it is simply dip buying institutions and others stepping up to buy up every time the market sells off a bit?
Thanks brianbreeze. PPT exists as has been admitted by those in power many a time.
Though their actions are not advertised and are a matter of speculation. Personally I doubt that they are always there to stop the market from declining. My feeling is that their role is to interfere only under emergency conditions. And, that is why I am so interested in knowing from experts. Did they interfere or not? If they did then I believe something is out of balance.
I don’t believe PPT would interfere just because the SM is down a bit after a relentless rise. It does not make sense.
A great idea. But, Gary, why did they interfere when everything looked so stable? What are they afraid of?
Vin I agree. There is no way some PPT would interfere after the market dropped a very small amount after running so much in the last 1.5 months as it is not like the market was collapsing. I think it was simply institutions/others buying the dip and nothing more. So like you I agree that it makes no sense some PPT would step in to prop the market up after such a huge run when one would expect some normal profit taking which is what we had last week.
bill, I have been posting my trades here and I am up 80% in about three months or so. How is a smart one like you doing? Or, do you just worry about the future which never comes?
Ya ya 80%, never any losses tho, your a legend in your own mind.
Please see my posts if you are really interested. They are all documented on this site. But, I guess that is a bit too much for someone who is always right in the future because soon gold will sell for $100000000/ounce. Right?
Stock markets all over the world are soaring, not just the US markets. Does anyone really believe the FED, PPT or any other US government agent is responsible?
Don, why are they soaring? Are they forecasting better economic future? If true then that does not bode well gold!
u have heard of inflation….
what is that?
So many talking their book lol, anyway for real! traders no ” I know im right chest pumpers” NUGT is trying to break the 50 MA on the 15
Platinum has a big gap up.
Things definitely are different now.
Goild, things that shoot up sharply are often just shooting stars. Watch to see if this develops into a reversal candle by the end of the day. Remember election night for example? Same thing repeats again and again and traps a lot of traders who are just buzzing with adrenaline at how a trade moved. Just remember; one day does not make a trend.
pay attention to silver. While Gary sits on the side lines on gold, afraid of a dollar that keeps kicking him in the teeth, other PMs like silver, platinum and palladium are moving up quickly.
Yes Sir, gold has pre-firing rockets, prior to the titan rockets.
Get on board do not be a chicken.
There is plenty of room in the bandwagon.
You seem to be right. It is shooting up. Looks like I am going to miss this one.
My long term NUGT chart so far right on target
Sloppy I know I have no time to be an artist…lol
It would be awesome!!!
Bouncing but we are through the 50ma…
Wow, look at Platinum
I think bill’s 6 month NUGT prediction is about right. It also would correlate with Gary’s big picture view, and Surf’s excellent research. But no way it happens without USD declining. Dollar is the cause, NUGT the effect. We just need to expand our time horizon past the inauguration and reality will set in. (I mean reality, not Trump reality TV).
That’s my opinion obviously. DYODD.
History is repeating with the YCL in Dec of 2016. Finally took my positons for coming 2 quarters in gold and silver mining stocks. A stronger dollar will keep some pressure on GLD/SLV prices, but imo not enough to prevent GLD/SLV prices from going much much higher very soon. There is just too much upside pressure and positive sentiment coming back to the undervalued sector of PM GLD/SLV-miners.
In the meantime in the US: $ 19,951,088,868,302 and counting… think about it: worldwide debt isn’t going away anytime soon, at the contrary. http://www.usdebtclock.org/
Also plenty of event risks in weeks to come, with Donald Trump (taking office) etc.
GLTA , best wishes for a lucky 2017, Montecore
Could we get a repeat in gold stocks from January 2106?
NATURAL GAS = SCORCH’s [about] FIRST VICTIM !
Natural gas has produced a weekly swing high and is about to deliver a failed daily cycle to confirm its IC decline. The nice thing about it is that … 🙂 the DC failure will also produce a monthly swing high to signal…what? the very yearly cycle decline 🙂
Thus, NatGas is close to becoming Scorch’s first risk-on asset victim. (let it be reminded that THE FIRST EVIDENCE OF THE BEGINNING SCORCH that most are still not admitting came on NOV14 when utility stocks bottomed) !
Alexandru so what about the scorched SM? You got that all wrong.
So has Gary already bought back in the miners (presumably at higher price than he sold last Friday)? Or is he waiting until end of day to buy or tomorrow AM?
Such is the nature of using 3x ETFs. It just sets you up for whipsaws.
Quite frankly there is no reason to sell 3x currently.
Support for NUGT is about $7.00 that is when one needs to get serious about selling.
Next one would be about $5.55.
“we were told to not miss a trend”
Goild, I feel so happy for you. Keep it up, Maan!
You all guys are awesome!!!
This is fun.
It won’t be when Nugt does its next reverse split. I guarantee it.
agree with that.. at this level
Great spurt in kold.
Gary is doing the right thing by staying on the sidelines with respect to gold and silver. Gold and silver haven’t bottomed yet. Today is just a spike, which will reverse in the coming days and weeks. So, be careful you gold bugs.
Precisely correct Slep. I can hardly agree more.
SLEP, I sold jnug @7.17 on Friday. And, haven’t bought it back yet because I did feel that it was headed down. And, at this stage I am not bullish on Au/Ag. I also feel that all serious investors should own 8-15% in real gold/silves (I don’t mean miners and I certainly don’t mean 3X).
But the fact is that jnug was up 18.6% (@6.62) to-day. That is quite a return in a day. So, those were in today have reasons to be happy. And, I rejoice in their happiness as long as they are not cocky and insulting.
Brian, you are lost.
Alexandru I was not the one calling for a SM scorch for over the last 1.5 months and getting scorched like you so how is it I am lost?
Alexandu you are horrendous with your forecasts. The more you post the more people can see you have no idea what you are talking about.
Come on Slep. Jump on the JNUG train. Up over 13% today.
Sometimes you have to hold your nose & buy at these insanely
low prices. Disclaimer: Past performance not indicative of future
Just you wait, earthkitten. I’ll be proven right!!
pms setting up for another smackdown?
ras, it looks like. But, one can never be sure.
I had to really restraint myself and I did not jump. jnug was up more than 18.6%. That is quite a pay off in one day irrespective of what happens tomorrow. I am happy for those who own it.
i meant I did not jump in. Please pardon my typing, it is horrible.
Big reversal down day in oil……what does that portend?
On the weekly chart WTI has put in a big negative reversal candle to start the year off. I think that means oil will be declining for a while although I don’t follow it so closely that I am on intimate terms with the charts.
I wouldn’t go long GDX today… It bounced off the DOWN TREND LINE just a few days ago and is in the process of testing it again; if it fails; JDST is the trade!
that is true of many of PM charts.
Playing with jdst is like buying a load of firecrackers on sale because the fuses are too short. JMHO
Perfect time to buy it in my opinion. This gold burst today should be a bust by tomorrow.
Nugt setting up for another decline. This next fall will be sickening to those holding it. Like the bottom falling out of an elevator from the 30th floor. That ETF could lose half its value in a matter of a week.
Hope so, I may load JDST in a few days. Lost a lot of profit selling JNUG Friday late and the rest early this AM. Dollar yen correlation to gold backfired today on me. Gold was up and held.
Nikkei wants to see 20,000 so that means Yen down along with gold. This was an odd day but the yen/gold thing does not work exactly one-for-one so I don’t sweat about it.
ZKOT, do u remember I was telling you that now I am looking into Larry Williams’ literature ?
Well, look at DAX index’ futures daily chart (mind futures, not the actual DAX, so that you can catch yesterday’s up-thrust) and there you will see the “OOPS PATTERN” on a bearish note – William’s most favorite and reliable chart pattern.
Thus, we are on a huge probability that DAX futures has topped.
Maybe tomorrow Gary will tell us that he jumped back in to gold ?
Way too much bearishness here on this blog towards the PMs. Perfect for us few bulls.
I want to see how gold holds up tomorrow before jumping back in. I suspect another attempt will be made to drive the stock market higher in the morning. If gold can hold, or better yet make some gains tomorrow in spite of that then I’ll be convinced the YCL is complete.
Don, you still can’t see it?
Come on! Do you REALLY think Nugt won’t retrace 100% of its move since last January and do you REALLY believe its about to stage a big recovery and bounce back? After all the fall to date does it even make sense it would stop short of the bottom and start making current and past buyers into winners?
You need to be careful here. The trade is on the short side. It is the minority of players who ever make short bets though. Kind of a specialty area since most people are linear and think winning means only when things go positive (up). And of course most people are also optimists when trading and thus to buy short is negative since it expresses a lack of confidence in a market trade.
For gold traders and metals devotees this is especially true. They just cannot bring themselves to take a negative bet against the thing they love any more than they would turn their Mama over to the police for growing marijuana in the back yard.
Anyway, the Nugt chart is just awful to my eyes. It is most certainly not a buy right now. So if you cannot bear to bet against gold you should at least consider being a wall flower until it shows a better pattern set up.
Too many bears on the wrong side of the boat.
Looks like the commercials are in the bull camp.
I think that’s where I’ll camp out until the COT
report turns unfavorable for gold.
Don’t try timing according to what the Commercials are doing. They can often be months ahead of the actual turn. And I think that’s all we are seeing now. They are positioning for late February or possibly early March.
I just had a nice meal in a French restaurant to come back and find nugt closed at $8.6. Awesome.
There are three scenarios here.
One, gold has a rally to about $1200.
Two, gold channels between $1150 and $1165 and then sers a trap either way.
Three. It quickly drops.
My take is 45%, 45%, 10%.
Clearly, there is a new paradigm in the market.
“We were told to not miss a trend”
Goild, jnug was up more than 18.6% to-day and I wasn’t in!!!!!! I should have listened to your advise and should have gotten back in. Though it still hasn’t reached the price of 7.17 I sold at on Friday. I will look at how markets do tonight. I could very well jump in tomorrow. Let us see what Gary does tomorrow.
I hope you do a good move.
Though take your time, keep in your profits.
No need to rush, wait for the right moment and do good money management.
I am fine bring long miners. I don’t mess around once on the wrong side of 3x ETFs. Just look at Thursday and today. 30% and 19% down days for JDST. It’s not like you can ride it out either by nature of long term holding. Once it goes wrong, you have to accept losses. I am glad for recent gains but all it takes is one 30% down day to wipe you out.
Exactly! 3X are fun when the call is right. Either way they are a gamble and not an investment. One can only make money with them when the short-term call is correct otherwise it is easy to be wiped out. Nevertheless they are real fun when one can make a right call.