Gold – Half Cycle Low Due Soon
Gold is 13 days into its daily cycle. At some point soon there will be a dip into a half cycle low. That will be the next opportunity to buy long.
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I doubt such an opportunity will arrive any time soon –> Treasuries + Gold + JPY (JPY as of today) are in a lockout rally !
There are two proofs of this lockout rally in defensives (The Scorch flaming up):
1) Natgas already in confirmed IC declined and in signaled YC decline;
2) USD (and stocks) delivered an early DCL last week so that it is now in CONFIRMED INTERMEDIARY CYCLE DECLINE –> it went higher on day 1 getting exhausted in a bull trap and today the daily cycle failed.
Short risk-on + long risk-off assets is the way to be during this Scorch!
PS: mind that while USX delivered the bull trap this week (and EUR its bear trap), JPY HAS SHOWN RELATIVE STRENGTH BY CHARTING A DOUBLE BOTTOM BUT NOT A LOWER LOW!
JPY is on the heels of a massive rally, an astounding rally !!!
Just like USX, USDJPY toped on day 1 (Tuesday) of the new daily cycle and failed today.
EURJPY pair is about to print its swing high too (top also on day 1, but on DEC30) and further to fail meaning that JPY’S RALLY WILL BE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN EUR’S !
JPY is to amaze many people around the world in the next weeks – it is early in a new yearly cycle while the prior YC lasted as long as …18 months
From November last year -> 29/11/2016
Did UBS and JPM Just Imply a Bottom for Gold ?
If JPY rallies hard; so will gold! period.
if JPY rallies; so will gold!
SPX below 2080 by late FEB.
Alexandru you are full of hot air. You got your SM scorch all wrong for the last 2 months as the market ripped higher. You have no idea where the SM is going so quit posting your junk guesses.
Alex could be right. Sometimes during an exceptionally powerful 1st daily cycle there really isn’t any half cycle low. So it’s not a sure thing that a pullback will happen.
FEEL THE EXCITEMENT & ENERGY!!
Alex, you have been talking about the scorch for over a month while the markets kept making higher highs. It’s quite embarrassing. Please stop.
Vlad, I agree. Alexandru is a joke predicting the SM scorch to then watch it rip higher every day since his preidction. He fancies himself some guru when in fact he has no idea where the SM is going but that does not stop him from blowing hot air. If you say something will go down long enough you are bound to be right eventually…
I wonder where can I read about the services in the premium membership.
Do you run not so aggressive portfolios for the long term?
I suggest new subs just try out a monthly subscription. You can always upgrade later if you like, or cancel if you don’t.
Gold’s uprising so far appears much as a straight line; it may turn out to be unending for a long while.
Yes, give and take +/- ~1% variations.
Alex vs. Vlad
Can it get any more surreal?
keeping my shorts on 🙂 : SPX @ 2253 and USDJPY @ 116.95
Vlad, don’t be like Michele and Brian watching only at The Obvious in front of their eyes (i.e., needing to see SM falling to believe The Truth), or maybe you’ve made your pick to do so already – it’s your choice.
The Scorch produced its first signal on Nov15 with the swing low of utility stocks.
Now we are in confirmation area with giving natgas, gold, treasuries’ right-translation in their current daily cycle and today’s.
Anyway, psychologically, it is another confirmation (or signal at least) to see so much disdain over a bearish stance on risk-on assets 🙂 a great signal
Alexandru you are a clown. You said the SM would scorch and it went up almost every day since your call.
You like to use big words but you are full of hot air and have no idea where the SM will go.
LABU flying today and just about to hit its 50 SMA.
About the Yen/USD, since late July it has fallen more than 15% while the Nikkei has risen roughly 30%. During that same time period (almost exact same time period incidentally which I mention as confirmation that Yen and gold and Nikkei are all still linked) gold fell almost 20%. Rough numbers only here so nobody complain about the math.
Anyway, in order to believe that gold is about to take off you must also believe that the Nikkei is about to start falling. And not only that you need to believe the Nikkei is going to fall for many months in order to see the kind of bounce in gold many here are anticipating.
So look at the Nikkei. Do you really beleive its in trouble or ready for a long correction? If you do then by default you must also appreciate that major stock markets rise and fall together and that includes the DOW and S&P.
Are they ready for a long drawn out correction?
Secondly, if such a correction were to happen you need to appreciate that bonds are about to rise again since the ten year and 30 year charts are strangely similar to that of gold. In other words, bonds and gold up (rates down) and the major stock markets of the world in decline.
I don’t make this stuff up. Those are your correlations. Deal with it.
Ped, you sound like you have been around long enough to know that correlations always work until they don’t .
As long as they are still working (and they are) then you need to pay attention to them.
Wake me when they break and we can discuss it again then.
BITCOIN disaster should bring more into gold.
Gary, you bailed out of your gold positions on Friday, presumably before the sell off, of course, sat on the sidelines on Monday as gold recovered and never really said when you got back in.
I guess that Don and I are the only ones who noticed the same things.
I noticed that Gary always makes money for his followers. Start following and you will make a bundle. Don’t be like me. I bought [email protected] and today it is selling @21. OOOOOPS!
I’ll let you guess 🙂
Subs got real time updates.
Don, Gary has always been right. I should have listened to him. Also, remember Gary is a long tern investor and invests in 3X. I think he is a genius. Looks like everyone here who follows him has made so much money that they won’t even tell us. On the other hand look at me who does not always obey Gary. I bought jdst at 28 and now I am stuck with it.
What the hell? Just a few weeks ago , you were bragging about going opposite of WHATEVER Gary said, you know, to be contrary to the experts..
Now, you just called him a genius! (Slam my forehand)
Beautiful Cup&Handle formation in GDXJ the base for JNUG, looking good !
NIKKEI is a big piece of crap, it’s doomed! It’s living on borrowed time with lifesupport from Mr Abe&Co.
Soon the Oxygen will run out and we will see a 70-80%drop! in NIKKEI Goodbye Japan … then it’s Europes turn and last USA. One domino after another.
Based on what? Nikkei is up 5000 points since last July!!!!!
BOJ buying all the shares!
Great point. Thanks for chiming in Boss.
GDX just broke out in a big way…
Let see if we break out here
Yup, miner’s broke out of summer down trend resistance. I have started to build long positions, but I agree with Gary that I will buy a lot more during the next cycle low..
I think SLV is a better buy than GDX right now. Its only half way up in its down channel. I believe its going to catch up to miner’s.. we’ll see..
NUGT break out
“Alex could be right. Sometimes during an exceptionally powerful 1st daily cycle there really isn’t any half cycle low. So it’s not a sure thing that a pullback will happen.”
I agree in general but I think the second derivative of price goes negative in those cases, i.e., a temporary slowdown in price appreciation occurs and you can see it and usually “feel” it.
But that reasoning just implies buy sooner because why buy even a little higher later?
Like you said, bull markets forgive all timing mistakes.
Chalk us up….1180
Yes that is a major resistance zone. If we take that out today it’s big.
Dollar broke support of 101.91, look out below!
It’s kind of comical watching this market at the start of 2017. Now I’m seeing this breakdown in the dollar/yen (the tick-for-tick catalyst to send the stock indicies to new all-time high’s), which is obviously bullish for the metals/miners…In other words, another example of the CB’s “have your cake and eat it too” mantra, which is to keep the artificial support in the stocks regardless of the deterioration of all of the initial catalysts. A number of savvy bloggers have discussed this juggling act over the years…i.e. it can morph from dollar/yen, to crude, back to some “jawboning” and other related nonsense. 10 years ago I would have never believed all of this was possible (at least not so persistently).
I agree, if you catch the rotations it is powerful.
Goodbye dollar longs
tend to agree bill, finally dollar and more important yen, are a hard sell, vix needs to kick in to upside to show true reversal in trend. Still suspect true market turn will coincide with options expiry.
Once again all the Naysayers are paying a hefty price to buy back in and the XAU just hit 1181
bill, a hefty price is a bit of a stretch, up around 4 percent from recent lows on gold, and much more down from recent oct highs. LOL
Ive been long NUGT since $5.51…and still even with these hefty profit im not selling, no reason to. Lots and lots of fear in the air. The VIX is no longer valid, actually the fear index hasn’t been valid since 2007…to many magic hands keeping it locked up.
I’ll remind you of vix irrelevance when it doubles from here post option expiry. Vix never irrelevant. Complete confidence with fed holding up market. Any Trump event or tweet will wash it all away in a blink of the eye.
You don’t have to remind me, I was long the VIX in 03/04 and 05 when the housing market topped, but since that time I have not touched it..
Yeah, if Gary is correct, I can only imagine what this stuff will be at when gold cracks 1300 again! Starting from a higher base so miner prices could go way past the last run up? Maybe Gary will chime in.
Each cycle is unique. It will have its own tricks and traps. Eventually, they will.
I think miners easily make new highs during this intermediate cycle.
Up cycle has begun for pms. Price on weekly moves above 10w ma. Weekly stochs, after false start, gives buy signal. weekly macd curling up for a crossover soon. Plus price busts through 50 ma on daily. It is the buy, buy, buy signal for technically oriented folks.
10years yield down>>>>>>>>>gold up
10years yield down>>>>>>>>>US$down
No surprise here at all.
After calling for the dollar to roll over a couple of dozen times, Gary finally nailed it.
The dollar got a reprieve after the election night intervention but it won’t last. The dollar still has a date with a 3 YCL this year.
Two thirds of today’s move in gold can be attributed to a falling dollar. In another words, we have a major currency adjustment happening with gold and nearly every other commodity that is widely traded in US dollars.
jnug down 21%. Some people never learn including me.
Weekly trend has changed from down to up decisively. Forget inverse etfs. New mantra is buy dips on gdx and gdxj. This is only 2nd week. Once the intermediate trend starts, it keeps going for a while. PMs have entered a trending phase. Stochastics will not be of much help, it will simply keep flat lining. Keep an eye on weekly macd. We are close to a cross over. Cheers.
You mean JDST? You did not get out? Still up 10% from your JNUG run up though?!
no I did not get out in time. btw your numbers are mixed up a bit. My last trade in jnung I was up more than 50% as I had bought it 4.65 as you guys were expecting a downturn. I sold it at 7.17.
Before that I was up about 30% or so on shorts, US$ long etc. jdst is at ~21, if I sell it right now I lose ~25%. It is a big hit but it is not end of the world yet.
Let us be honest. Post your trades. Or just simply tell us how much money have you lost in last six months?
sorry I meant jdst.
Where do you all guys things would be smart to get out of JNUG ? Or shall someone hold them for the next 2-3 months ?
Ask Gary, he is the expert on 3x etfs. Or subscribe to his news letter.
It looks like vin is so excited that he confused “up” and “down”.
It appears the weakness in dollar is largely triggered by People’s Bank of China, which drove the overnight yuan rate in Hong Kong to as high as 80%. It drove yuan up by 2.5% in two days. The shorts of yuan, like they were a year ago, are licking their wounds. For the moaning of shorts, read the article here ; http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-05/stunned-wall-street-reacts-chinas-bear-crushing-yuan-carnage
Look man I put all my cards on the table for all to see instead of playing games.
I have lost in this trade so what. That is part of gambling. And, if you think that you guys invest, wait. In fact why even wait look at what your portfolio has done over the last six months.
Take it easy, vin. I was commenting your post in which you said: “jnug down 21%. Some people never learn including me.”. I thought that you really meant that jnug was up 21%.
Sorry Easy. I meant jdst and NOT jnug. I own jdst.
Is there any concern that silver seems to be lagging?
silver (like platinum) bears an industrial use/bias; it is the risk-on (industrial) feature of silver that makes a drag on it during risk-off periods, as it is the case now.
this is also why I do not understand bothering with such assets as silver, platinum, palladium !!!
if one wants a risk-on metal then buy copper, if risk-off then gold – keep things straight!
The reason why traders like silver is because of the volatility. It is more volatile than gold, more action. When gold goes up, silver goes up faster, when gold goes down, silver goes down faster. You need not worry about silver lagging behind gold, it will catch up with a vengeance. Actually silver did better last year, percentage wise, than gold did.
I love silver. VERY SMALL MARKET to huge upside with little capital inflow. Silver miners are still WAY below their highs in July. I own plenty. I only buy physical platinum. Traditionally 1.2x the price of gold so if you like gold you should like platinum (rich man’s gold). I do believe silver lagged gold last year?
I’ve been riding a position in JNUG- under 7.00… I bought a bit early after the Fed decision on interest rates… (in retrospect I was a little impatient on the entry) due to to getting in early… I am a bit tempted to take some profits off the table and wait for a pull back… but on the other hand… I kind agree with Alex whom I think said it might not happen… also like your comments Alex about SP500 being near 1800 in Feb… anyway time will tell… p
Really rough numbers. Kind of impossible to predict because missing one variable – time- which determines the “slippage” inherent in leveraged ETFs. But anyway, if POG were to rise to 1300 at as quick a rate as it is moving today, JNUG would be about 21. Of course POG is unlikely to proceed as quickly as that, so slippage would add up quickly and 21 would not be reached at POG 1300. THIS IS NOT A PREDICTION, JUST A MATHEMATICAL WHAT IF SCENARIO.
Correction- regarding Alex earlier comment SP500 2080 late Sept… note- for awhile I just avoided the blog… it seems at times there are too many haters… and not enough real market players to really find the info useful in a meaningful way- no one is right all of the time… I enjoy the feedback from the blog… but some of the childish comments… common folks- get a life- p
It also presumes miners will maintain the same leverage to POG as they exhibited today, which is another optimistic assumption IMO.
I agree with Gary. I think there will be a pullback sometime in January. That will be another fantastic buying opportunity to load up on gold and silver.
Pull up a weekly chart of GDX and look at the time period from late January through May 1st. Non-stop gains, taking GDX from 12.36 to 26.09. Not a hint of backfilling except for two very insignificant red candles. That was the possibility Gary alluded to on this thread that would be without a pullback. I respect your opinion TraderPete, but I lean to a replay of the year-ago scenario.
I wouldn’t sit on the sidelines and bet everything on a pullback. We didn’t get one last year and the baby bull left alot of people in the dust.
It may happen and if it does it will be a buying opportunity, but don’t count on it.
Both gdx and gdxj moved above 50 ma since mid August, 2016. Very important. It does not happen every day. Very important buy signal this morning. Pull backs? May be.
Nobody is more surprised than me Ras. I have to admit I really did not expect this sharp a move.
Hi, Ped. It is the vicious c deline of a-b-c move. Not obvious at first sight. If you look at daily line chart for dust, you will get a better picture. Anyway, forget about inverse etfs for a while. The place to be is plain/ultra etfs. We could be close to the tail end of the first upswing. Then, may be a bit of pull back and on to new highs. Just my take, for now.
If this year continues to be an elongated mirror of the 08 bottom, strong rally, then wicked correction into early 09, then this year could be really big, and next year, too. And if the 3 year low in the dollar is truly in front of us (and I agree that it is) then we have a lot of rocket fuel to burn still.
(2016 chart of course)
This feels and looks like we have burst out of a yearly cycle low in a young bull market.
Gary do we get a half cycle low tomorow or next week? Anytime GDX has 5% or more gain tends to give back 1-2% next day
I would strongly suggest accepting that we don’t have free markets when it comes to stocks.
How many times have I warned not to short the stock market?
Central banks figured out they can control the business cycle by keeping markets inflated. Do you really want to fight an opponent with a printing press and unlimited capital?
why dont they just give people free money
They do, its called Welfare. And that goes for both Corporate and individual.
i did not get anything
Just giving people money creates inflation. They tried that in 2008 and we saw what happened. They want the stock market to stay inflated so it’s better to just rig that market than to hand out money.
Well, Dust completely failed at support. The bulls were right this time and so didn’t buy it (thank GOD) although it sure looked good for a few days as it slowly lined up the dots. So my attention will have to turn back to the miners, some of which are already putting on a pretty good show. At this point it is a struggle to find anything on any major chart that says gold is about to do anything other than move up from here for the next while.
Congrats to the guys who bought the bottom. Good call.
Miners hitting the gas relentlessly to close
Feels like last year, a bit later in the month
They sold off GDX and GDXJ last few minutes. It looks like we will get a drop tomorrow. I dont think it will last long tho we should be higher next week
Day trader profits. JNUG 25%+ profit for the day. When you sell the 3x ETF the underlying gets sold accordingly. Tomorrow will be another day.
Where do you get that selling x3 etf affects the underlying
Please read prospectus Robert. Shares of NUGT, JNUG, DUST etc are not created out of thin air but are various derivatives of underlying.
It is not by coincidence nor decree or fiat that the 3x funds go 3x to underlying fund, minus slippage. Think about it. When GDX and GDXJ slipped at end of day NUGT and JNUG did so proportionately – and vice versa.
cycle low starts
How many of you have aged ungracefully waiting for Alex’s SCORCH?
I think a SPY drop is coming also.
Do we need to see a back test of GDX?
My JNUG doubled in past 5 trading days.
And I think something has broken in the financial system, that has yet to come out in the mainstream news media. Money flows into and out of certain financial products are off the charts. (and I’m not just talking about Bitcoin). Some major $ flight is occurring, and it’s not simply a function of re-positioning. It has all the signs of desperation, rather than rational or strategic thought.
People are we gonna selloff hard tomorrow on NFP? Lots of put options being bought and miners seem euphoric. Gold topped?