Gold is now in the advancing phase of a new intermediate cycle. Bearish sentiment at the recent bottom was among the most extreme readings we have seen in the past 40 years. This should be the fuel to drive a really big rally.
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Dday
“$1165 gold and $16.30 key supports for gold and silver…”
Thanks for your analysis.
So if we have a channel it may range $1165-1185.
Of course there’s no guarantee, but possibly the employment report is the trigger for gold to dip into the half cycle low. Or it could just end up being one down day and come Monday we’re back to moving higher.
buy more when it dips?
10years rates up>>>>>>>>gold down
10years rates up>>>>>>>>US$ up
As simple as that.
Here’s a chart of 10 yr yields and gold. The correlation doesn’t always hold so neatly.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p59174491246
And not always that consistent either between USD and 10 yr Treasury yield.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p51411281781
What matters is what the correlation is NOW. Forget 2 or 3 years ago since that is history and not applicable. Trade what is on your screen not what is in the rear view mirror!
The ten year treasury is putting in a pretty clear reversal candle on the daily as we speak. Day is not over but don’t ignore it. Especially around closing time.
Yen/USD should drop down to .8425 during next three trading days taking gold with it as it retraces all of its move up from yesterday and goes a little deeper in the red before a bounce. I am using a new technical here and very interested to see if this plays out as predicted.
US Dollar looks really good for a bounce above 1.04 and if that plays out along with Yen dropping and 10 year Bond expectations then gold will struggle for a few more days before catching its wind to resume the advance (if there is an advance that is).
OK, so how exactly do I make a Monkey sound now?
Dog – bark, bark, bark
Cat – Meow
Cow – Moo
Chart Monkey – ?????
Steve I NEVER said “always”. Please understand I am saying “NOW”.
Thanks Steve. You are 100% correct. There are always many parameters at play. It is the most dominant factor that matters during a given period. And, your graph shows that clearly.
See Pedestrian’s post.
At present, we are in a period where the 10year yields are critical. Just watch the relationship without worrying about the past toooo much. That is the problem with cycles and technical analysis. It is toooo dependent on a particular past. And, the choice of “which” past is usually made by the expert.
Be assured that if 10years yield goes up a lot, gold WILL go down in dollar’s terms. Yet it will probably an excellent investment for those who have the real stuff.
yen http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XJY&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p56905024721
The dollar is bouncing right at resistance. I think it will puke. Could run down to 91 over the next few months. Good fuel for the up move!
Here come the buyers!
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/5/5jpmy3Jp.png
GDX and JNUG are both showing what appears to be a Continuation Wedge (Bullish) time will tell… good video Gary- thanks- p
GDX and JNUG are both showing what appears to be a Continuation Wedge (Bullish) time will tell… good video Gary- thanks- p
Close for the week is critical,
$1174+ bullish next resistance target $1190, $1200(strong resistance)
$1174- next support $1165, $1151, $1140, $1124
Take a look at this gold chart. It shows just when things look bullish bearishness can resume. Do the 2013(January) technicals look like today?
http://invst.ly/30v4m
In my view above $1210 should see a greater rise, caution till then….
75% of yesterdays gains gone in 30 minutes. Back into the hole for me.
Miners getting killed man cant believe it
oh yes Robert, gold down .60% and miners saying no way for baby bull. Suckers play again, until higher low of last week and higher high of Oct. Vix telling us no fear therefore why hold gold at least for now.
Some people NEVER learn.
So you have read countless, the bull is back, I think we are heading to….I can see minimum 400-1000% over the next few months ,comments/posts…. You feel high as a kite, “i’m going to be rich by April..”. Not that might no happen, but how many times has listening to that in your face style of advice worked…. The other approach is to set smaller targets, maybe when you have made 20% view it as a decent gain, bank some profits… Small frequent gains in my experience work out better that 10000% profit dreams… Occasionally those trades/bets work but the majority of times end in failure….From personal sleepless experience.
I will vouch for that. Good post Dday.
yes, take money and run on momentary gold rallies, no baby bull here yet until we post higher highs with drop in dollar, rise in yen and vix.
Please be a believer. Don’t doubt experts.
Just curious what technical indicators u folks are looking for to identify the “dip” moving forward…. thx
Personally, I’m looking for a successful back test of the down trend resistance/ (now hopefully support line)..
At time of writing, almost there!
That is it my boy! Be optimist and believe experts and ignore everyone else.
Hoping this is just a back test and bear trap, otherwise, back deep into the house of pain. I see why most people never make money. The whipsaw action is very tough to weather, especially after 4 months of conditioning to down turns and losses then after mild relief for two weeks (barely), monster flush again.
Hopefully this is the mid cycle decline that Gary said could happen. Keeping the faith.
As Gary has said so many times most of the traders never make money.
Vin, you have to be feeling good about JDST?!
I am certainly doing much better but my buying price is $28.08. I bought it because all the experts here had turned too positive. I guess I was a bit too early. I have to learn to be a bit more patient.
Thanks for asking. I haven’t sold it yet.
I read Gary’s post yesterday and noted how quickly his smug attitude had returned in full force. When he gets cock sure about anything, it’s a good time to cautious on what ever it is he is so sure of. I am not surprised to see the miners selling off today. That said, I don’t think gold is finished with it’s upside just yet but Gary’s ‘sure thing’ analysis is making me nervous. Don’t get me wrong, I WANT him to get it right about gold.
Be assured will get it right. He is a genius. Don’t worry about minor ups and downs. He says in a bull market timing is not important. Though I wonder why he sells and buys all the time. I guess he wants to maximize the profit. That is what great experts do.
LOL. I just fell out of my chair. Vin, how’s the kool-aid?
JNUG just filled the gap and at support ( old resistance?) ..
Just bought some.. Here we go!
As Gary has repeated said most of the traders never make money? I wonder why he said that?
Fair enough. Question is how much money has Gary made since 2011? I mean thats all that matters right?
Are you questioning Gary? He is a genius. Just follow him.
Question for you Dday. I still have the jdst I bought at $28.08. Should I wait or unload it?
vin, what’s the point of this post??
you have JDST..
Are you one of those few who have made money? If yes, then tell us your secret. If no, then it is about time you did some self search.
Even at the end of yesterday after a big loss in jdst, I was still up significantly over the last three months.
I responded to the wrong Vin post.. there’s so many today!
My response was to your response below..
As Gary has repeated said most of the traders never make money? I wonder why he said that?
You know, never mind!
I am amazed at the size of the sell off over less than 1% gold drop. 5-10% on most miners. Maybe this is healthy pullback after a big run up but man, the swings are huge. I know these are volatile and big risk big reward but a little more upside please! Guessing most expect things to crater again so the fear and bearishness is still very high.
Funny you said that. I had exactly the same feelings yesterday about the downside. I guess it is profit taking from yesrday’s big surge.
spx into new highs, guess the scorch delayed again. Biotech looking fine however not moving up quite yet as expected for the last hurrah of the laggards.
Last chance to buy the miners at a bargain price…
In that case I should sell jdst as soon as possible. I just don’t feel like taking a loss. My average buying is 28.08
I added on the last Dip myself…. 🙂
With crude heading to $70+ this year, your “bargain prices” today are going to seem awfully high in future hindsight on the highly-diluted and heavily-indebted mining shares. Good luck though.
this site has really gone down hill.. idiot comments
Like yours, Tulip? 😉
tulip, thank you for the excellent comment. I am not an expert. For my benefit, is it a sell or a buy? Or. just a simple hold?
OMG!!!
Gap closed and JNUG at 6.80 this is bi-polar markets. Jumped back in with freewheeling money. I will keep these …
That’s roughly the 62% retrace of the move up since Jan 3rd and so we should bounce from here.
And in spite of all my monkey technicals today that had me swinging from a tree I bought Jnug at 7.19 anyway and damn the torpedoes. So far so good. Could not resist buying after a 23% drop to a near perfect fib. Lets see what next week brings.
I’m in jnug at 7.05
Well there you go all fcking gains from yesterday erased. Whats the damn point…its too hard to make money in this shit jus a damn casino. I might as well just go work 9 to 5
Be patient. The miners are always volatile at turning points.
Robert, I do not recommend going to flip hamburgers from 9 to 5, That is hard work at it is not from 5 to 9; it is from 5 to 5,,,
The gold and silver bounce is over. We will now ski downhill into the YCL around January 31. 🌨☃️⛷📉👍
fomc
Not according to the SKI gold report. Jeff says we bottomed already. I have been fighting the impulse to believe him but the guy is pretty good and has a great track record. You can read it for yourselves. He is turning me back into a beleiver.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kern/current.html
Yepp I told you long ago !
There is a pictureperfect Cup&Handle + breakout + retest in 1h chart of GDXJ ! It’s a beauty 🙂
The Bottom is in and we are looking forward to a retest of the midterm high at 1375ish. However there is a possibility that we might go DOWN from there and retest 1050 !!! Do not listen to Gary’s call for a sure thing about the bull being restored. THE DECISION HAS NOT BEEN MADE YET, wait 6months … then hopefully we are out of the mist.
Tx for the link Ped, there are bits and pieces that correspond to my preffered analyst.
I like this few lines:
“Therefore, some short-term decline is expected, but a multi-month rise is expected and (based upon the 221 index) new multi-year highs in the gold stocks are predicted by early summer 2017 (or else the 221 index will sell).”
If you are interested you can read more about the SKI method in an article written by it’s developer, Jeffery Kern. I will link it below. His system is mathematical but not wave based. It is not a frequent trading system either for gold stocks or metals. What it does best is identify where the metals market has turned from bull to bear and vice-versa. He says it coincides with Elliot waves although he is not himself an Elliot practitioner. I have been following him for a number of years already. Sometimes I listen and sometimes I disagree but generally he gets the trend right and occasionally he even picks off the exact date of the turn which is very impressive in my books. There are a lot of guys predicting precious metals. Some of them are blowhards, entertainers, charlatans or con-men. Most of them have an agenda of one sort or another and frequently they have ties to the industry so you need to be very careful who you listen too. I appreciate this guy because he has a successful clinical approach and has not been infected by the philosophy of the idiot gold bugs nor bought out by the industry to promote its trade. Instead he is low-key, does a boring interview and is ignored by most people since he lacks that quality of entertainment buzz this business seems to thrive on. In other words, the perfect guy to follow!
http://www.skigoldstocks.com/about.php
Pedestrian, you’ve got to be putting me on. Kern is a psychologist, and my observation has been that psychologists need more help than the rest of us do. His SKI Gold Report (LOL) is a bunch of gobbledegook. I think the only nincompoop and nutcase that could understand it is Andy Dick.
😀
Pedestrian: Thanks for the great info.
You are welcome GMoney. I realize Kern is a bit hard to read and comes off as dry but he has made some respectable calls. One miss though was back in December 2014 when he got a buy signal that he felt was THE final gold low. It wasn’t. The real low came another year later almost to the day however he did warn readers to sell when the play stopped working. If you are interested you can follow his free articles that appear on Moriarty’s site each month at 321gold.com
Fear is key here, the closer we get to a Trump presidency, the greater the instability, uncertainty and fear. In this environment gold is going higher!
I guess for half the people that theory works. For the other half they are ready to sell their gold as the fear has ended.
Textbook pullback in the XAU today. I expect to see some consolidation before the next move higher.
Well Alexandru’s SM scorch really working out just like he predicted LOL what a bag of hot air.
Yesterday I was partially an idiot. As gold rose I thought it was going to pull back and sold my five NUGT lots ending up with a 0.4 gain of what the day brought. I was terrible mad I myself as I hold that the miners will rise. There is something to say about the saying “be right and hold tight.”
Today I was not an idiot. Recovered my five lots at no loss, and put in my pocket $2500 to enjoy the weekend.
The two strong candles on the 29th and yesterday, and their partial retracements clearly say there are a lot of buyers and lots of traders who like to take profit right away. For the last four years this time of the year has been bullish for gold/miners, this year is already happening.
One can find that a better approach to trading is to have a position for more or less long term, and day trading on the side. It is difficult to be right all the time an so a day trader has a difficult time to equal the profits of swing trader, and the same of the swing trader, hard to match the profit of a longer position.
So I have a 61% percent gain in my five lots. Cannot do it day trading.
Have a nice weekend.
Dday,
Thanks again for your technical analysis; it is great to have it.
One thing to notice is that the time lapse in the indicators between lows is often half of the current lapse.
So this reversal was historically overdue.
I wonder if any one has an insight why the USD corrected to yesterday’s level?
It appears that USD is threatening gold. So early this week we may see gold reaching the averages.
On the other hand we may see a gap up in gold.
Typically Mondays are not good for USD.
For those that thought the economy is growing need to knoe the government is creating lots of the jobs we think are in the economy. I will rather not ask what for?
Jobs in manufacturing in the United States increased by 17,000 in December—the first post-election month—climbing from 12,258,000 in November to 12,275,000 in December, according to data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Even so, over all of 2016, manufacturing jobs declined by 45,000–dropping from 12,320,000 in December 2015 to 12,275,000 in December 2016.
At the same time, jobs in federal, state and local government increased not only from November to December, but over the course of the entire year.
From November to December, government jobs climbed from from 22,211,000 to 22,223,000, an increase of 12,000.
I’m getting worried. It looks like Pedestrian is turning bullish on gold and silver.😎
Well it’s really quiet so I’ll make some noise. Gary’s maybe /maybe not call regarding the half cycle low so far looks to be right on. A contained short red candle at the 14 day mark – does it get any better than that? Nice call Gary.
Some on the board were moaning about their nugt/jnug holdings being hit on Friday. That’s what happens when gold corrects! JNUG has something like a 15:1 lever which works both ways. Along those lines, let me stick my neck out here.
Since early 2016 I have personally believed 1308 was THE key price to watch. I would say it proved to be a very active line in the sand from both below and later on the way down from above. I don’t think it’s importance is over yet. I believe that we are headed for yet another confrontation. How it reacts is not yet clear to me (although I know Gary seems sure it will be comfortably surpassed during this intermediate cycle). But I do believe 1308 will play another song first before that is decided. And for you JNUG holders, that corresponds to roughly 20, slippage taken into account. Again, JMHO, DYODD.
Meanwhile I am looking forward to the second leg of this daily cycle.
You are correct Pete. Right now the evidence is in favour of the bulls being correct so I have (temporarily) abandoned my bearish stance. If you will recall however I went long NUGT in early December and suffered a few weeks of holding a position in the red after that mid December surprise decline. So its not a new thing. I just question everything as we go along to keep my sanity.
On the 29th and on last Thursday, and their retracements, gold still showed a strong correlation with USD.
Gold can indeed bounce back substantially that easily say to the $1150 level. With the manipulation of the SM and the Trump effect we could see USD higher for while.
However, since look2525 alias Starry commented he sees everything as a channel, one can realize that since 2013 gold has been in a channel around $1200. It is safe to buy below this price as gold would come back to it. Inflation will make gold eventually go higher.
On the other hand shortly there can be very strong days to take gold well beyond the $1185 of Thursday. So I would not like to be left out; not a nice feeling.
I wonder why the ladies, Tulip and Michelle appear only to complain.
We men would love to love them and to gain about the feminine insights which we men do not have.
Hopefully they would be willing to share, and contribute to make this site even greater.
You know, nothing describes the character of a person best than when that person is criticizing someone else.
Funny you say that. I have not seen women trolling any other sites. Maybe they are really men.
Gold’s New Year Rally Accelerates seen by Morris Hubbartt ..wonder if it will be an option
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt010617/gold_inverse_hands.png
An option of a bounce…and where we would have one, if we do have one.
This is a great read article and confirms much for us knowing the future of PM and the SM and Bond environment. Gold Price Plummets After Trump Win, Huge PM Purchase Opportunity SchiffGold http://schiffgold.com/commentaries/gold-price-plummets-trump-win-huge-pm-purchase-opportunity/
Pedestrian, Thanks for your links and info yu share. Great getting good diverse insight and confirmation of financial dilemma and outlook, but possible scenarios of it playing out.
Anytime. Thanks.