184 thoughts on “COUNTER TREND MOVES UNDERWAY

      1. Robert

        Well them other cycle experts say that USD should rally the maximum of 8 days for this cycle and today was day 5. Who knows maybe Gary will be right again but I im gonna stick to the plan which is start buying miners on Tues or Wed. If it goes down more like Gary is saying I will add on every 50 cent drop in GDX and for GDXJ every 1 dollar drop. Impossible to call the exact bottom.

      1. Pedestrian

        Peak to valley that was a 24 dollar drop in less than 24 hours and the charts are completely altered as a result. We went from a bullish outlook yesterday (expressed by the bugs) to decidedly bearish tone this morning. I guess definitions matter. But if you just took long positions before the close on Thursday you will probably be regretting it by the Friday open.

  1. Goild

    It seems that tomorrow can be a down day for gold. This means that the weekly candle would be an inverted bearish hammer. So next week can be a down week and it may take one or two more weeks to reverse going up. Interesting to ponder.

    As per Option Trader one must plan the entry. I had no plan for the quick dip we had two weeks ago and so I missed getting back on board.

    Gary hints at the oversold and at the breaking of the trend line as indicators to get back,

    We shall see.

  2. Surf City

    Good video Gary but I show that your Blue Daily Cycle Uptrend may well be the Intermediate Cycle uptrend. If so, it is not likely to be broken on this pullback. Rather I show the late Jan Low as a DCL rather than a HCL pivot to draw your Daily Cycle uptrend line.

    https://surfcity.co/2017/01/31/gold-update/

    We got a trend line break and 38% Fib retrace right at 28 Days. Picture perfect for a DCL in my book. If I am correct, this current pullback is more likely a HCL of Daily Cycle #2

      1. Gary Post author

        I am using other tools.

        Sentiment did not confirm the January dip as a full DCL. Also the miners never turned the 10 DMA back down nor did they push the 5 day RSI to oversold.

        The cycles have evolved to longer duration’s and we need to adapt with them.

  3. ras

    Great educational video Gary, many points to ponder and some traps to avoid. Optimal volume level. Whether trend line breaks or not, it is best to monitor several key pm stocks and etfs and pull the trigger when things fall in place.

  4. terrywg

    I know I said I wouldn’t post here anymore… but I just couldn’t resist.

    Closing 2 tranches of long USDJPY position at 113.70 (1 tranche 100 pip profit, 1 tranche 200 pip profit)
    Closing short EURUSD position at 1.0658 (110 pip profit)
    Closing 1 tranche of short XAUUSD at 1223.25 (120 pip profit)
    Holding onto 1 tranche of short XAUUSD (50 pip loss)

    All of my trades were posted real-time over the last 4 days. Have just booked 21K in profits in 1 week of trading. Good day to all.

    Gary Savage: “Geez you day traders will never learn. Like I keep saying, most people will never make a a dime off a bull market.”

    1. Gary Post author

      I’ll be willing to bet that 99% of day traders never make any long term lasting gains in the market. And I’ll be willing to bet that 100% of them will massively underperform a simple Old Turkey strategy for the duration of the bull market.

      1. terrywg

        I would venture that your multiple entries and exits this month would qualify you as a day trader under your wide definition.

        I have traded on 3 occasions this entire year. Does that sound like day trading to you? And what makes you think I am not holding onto positions Old Turkey?

      2. ras

        Could be, based on group statistics. Unlike swing trading, continuous day trading could cause a lot of stress and burnout, leading to poor decisions occasionally. A different opinion is OK. No need to convince anybody, if anyone is doing well with his day trading.

    2. terrywg

      Actually, maybe Gary was right… looking at the comments below I think that most don’t make a single cent. Saw this behaviour when gold was at 1330, and you can be damn sure I’ll see it again and again and again. Sheep will always be sheep. Some of us try to provide a different perspective but get talked down CONSTANTLY. Well now go take your medicine… although not like I expect any of this to change.

      bill
      February 7, 2017 at 7:29 am
      And as we see shorts getting creamed

      bill
      February 8, 2017 at 4:22 am
      Once again the rush to short a rising market is a common day traders mistake and a fine example of how they NEVER ! EVER! make real money, to busy chasing the scalp…

      bill
      February 8, 2017 at 11:22 am
      So many left behind hoping praying wishing for a pull back. I know it may seem or feel like a top, but just wait you’ve seen nothing yet lol.

      bill
      February 9, 2017 at 9:33 am
      Lol just breaking balls Robert all good I added 300 @ 12.43 sitting on some serious shares

      dboz
      February 8, 2017 at 1:46 pm
      By the time you get the dip at 1310, you may as well just by now. It will still be lower to buy now than at the dip.

      dboz
      February 9, 2017 at 4:18 am
      Premarket dips are occurring daily. Just a tease for those looking for entry. Bounce right back strongly. I think we are going to run longer here than most expect. It will pull back but by then the pullback will be higher than buying here. Easy to see why most never make a dime in a bull market. As Gary said you get a big day of gains then the chop. Pullbacks are shallow and quick as buyers rush in on any dip. The dollar continues to struggle at higher price. Rallies get sold quickly as the dollar unwinds.

      dboz
      February 9, 2017 at 7:56 am
      This move is why I don’t use stops. Trump talks about a phenomenal tax plan coming and everything moves quickly on the news. It will probably settle back in soon. Would get stopped out then the stuff bounces right back as you sit out missing the rebound.

      Option Trader
      February 8, 2017 at 12:58 pm
      Bought some TWTR calls into the close. We’re getting some strong set ups here on TWTR.

      1. terrywg

        Actually, Option Trader, my bad for including you in this. You’re one of the few I respect on this board out of all the bugs because you’re actually open-minded. Couldn’t help myself after I saw that TWTR fell off a cliff after your buy.

      2. dboz

        Hope everyone that wanted in got in. Doubt many were able to pull the trigger as they were expecting multiple down days. Silver is a freight train about to break out and explode.

  5. Surf City

    Here are my thoughts on USD and Gold Cycles. I agree with Gary that the current USD Daily Cycle will very likely top in the next couple of days before rolling over but that needs confirmation. If you look at the USD uptrend since August 2016, the USD will have a very Right Translated Intermediate Cycle. Gary made a similar point on the Euro short term cycle being Right Translated but did not mention the similar likelihood with the USD.

    https://surfcity.co/category/gold/

    1. terrywg

      @Goild

      I am a professional currency trader and run a small fund.

      This is my personal account, however. Last year I booked slightly north of 400k for my personal account. That’s why when people say technical traders can’t make money it makes me angry because this is clearly misinformation.

      1. zbigkid

        Linguistically, its really easy to tell you are lying. First of all, anyone who made $400,000, would not ever waste their time here. 2nd, no one who made $400,000 would get angry at this petty stuff, and would just blow if off. 3rd, when someone uses the word ‘booked’ for their so called ‘own account’ tells me you didn’t make $400,000, and that you are using pretend monopoly money. Go back to your momma’s basement, and lie to your teen age friends with your tall tales.

        1. terrywg

          Linguistically, it’s really easy to tell you are a 12 year old fat kid, because you are used the name zbigkid (see how I came up with a totally irrelevant observation by using some obscure line of reasoning?)

          If you were a full-time trader, you’d know that it’s a very lonely job. Most of my interaction is with the online community. Also, I’m sorry that you cannot believe an individual can perform at a high level while having time to be a member here.

          Btw, I posted one of my articles for zkotpen to read recently. If you wanted to, you could actually find out the name of my fund. Happy hunting 🙂 I’ll even manage some of your money for you if you ask nicely.

        2. terrywg

          Btw, who says rich people can’t be petty?

          Traders are the pettiest douchebags I know. Linguistically, this shows me you don’t know jack about trading or traders!!

          And I’d happily take on the mantle of a douchebag if it allows me to educate some of the people here who clearly can’t think for themselves. Tried to be civil, suffered abuse instead. So I guess the only way forward is to descend to your level.

          Btw, this is really gonna be my last post here. Used to be a decent place but has really gone down the gutter.

          @goild: ty brother. Hope all goes well in the year ahead.

          @newb: study price action analysis my man. It will change your life I promise. Mix in some EW/ cycle analysis to guide you, and technicals to inform your entries and exits. NO FUNDAMENTALS- you will get the outcome wrong I guarantee. And always remember, look for CONFLUENCE. I’d link you some good material, but I think that wouldn’t be nice to Gary.

          1. bill

            Alright loud mouth you’ve had your forum get off your soap box, get your im the greatest that ever lived head out your ass and move on…we get it you made some lunch money day trading…good for you no need to keep tooting your own horn, pretty boy.

      2. vin

        Thank you terrywg. I am sure it is doable. But, I find it hard to perform consistently. I have made big gains in very short periods but then I have lost as well.

      3. Jacob

        Terrywg, please keep posting. I come to this site for (what you actually say the site is lacking) unbiased analysis. Of course it has a great deal of bias, there are also many calling it as they see it.

  6. Option Trader

    By the way, keep an eye on Silver tomorrow and Monday. It’s outperforming Gold and and still embedded in an uptrend.
    It may be unlikely, but should we get a green close there may be a possibility for a fake breakdown.

      1. Option Trader

        Newb, they are tied at the hip majority of times. When slv is stronger than gld, it’s more bullish than vice versa.
        As far as a green close, either one can close in the green to indicate a false break down. Unlikely but possible.

  7. zkotpen

    terrywg,

    I’ve been meaning to get back to you.

    Unbelievable — just walked in from trying to figure out why my internet has degraded over the past 3 days, especially since last night (Thursday’s market hours & overnight).

    Yeah — a little bit of scouting around my building has revealed some pigeons have made a home on the wifi Access Point on my floor (top floor), and the cleaning lady has recently crammed in a folded up burlap sack on top to keep the pigeons off of the poop-laden AP!!

    So I’ve got a wifi antenna, connected to a lower floor… let’s see if this comment can send… this is my first test since trying the more distant connection thru a bit of concrete — speeds are much slower than normal, but it should at least work (better than the old dial up days, for instance).

    Anyway, I was effectively out of commission since a few hours before the market opened Thursday!…

    time to rest up & reconnect to the markets & charts & such… has even affected my sleep as I was up for hours trying to figure out what was wrong with my computer!!… peeved to miss out on Thursday’s action on the one hand, but glad I hadn’t put on some trade & then lost connectivity on the other!! 😉

    back in touch soon!!

    z

  8. Dday

    I think the term “trader” is used far too liberally on here. If you are good at trading why not. If you want to hold for the long run why not. Sure some are rubbish and buy at the top sell at the bottom but not all. Dust is just as useful as NUGT if you know what you are doing. How many, “gold wont correct” , “…i’m so happy im not holding DUST” comments have there been over the last couple of days, over bullishness/bearishness, It was exactly the same at $1125 and will be if gold reaches $1300. I personally think gold will repeat last year climbing into summer then falling for the rest of the year…If you don’t agree with me no problem…. I have said before Gary makes money great, so do others…..

  9. Pedestrian

    So we have had a very welcome decline in gold in the past hours. I just sat down and caught up on the changes. It is remarkable how much can change in such a brief time. I won’t say this was unexpected either. Had gold not fallen I would have been very surprised based on the pattern developing.

    At this time we have seen a convincing breakdown of support on the hourly chart and any bounce-back should not get much further than 1233 before the decline continues. I did not get the sharp drop early in the week I was predicting but we may yet still see that this coming Monday. My major target is 1150 gold although exactly how we get there is usually a good debate.

    Gold remains in a bear market.

    Just a casual glance at any of the longer charts (weekly and monthly) should be sufficient to keep that idea fresh in our minds. A check of channels and supports offer easy confirmation that the bias is still to the downside. As such it is dangerous to keep trying to enter positions for the long term as too many people here are doing.

    I just don’t get that. It is a recipe for failure given there are so many unfulfilled support lines below current price levels that still beckon magnetically. With gold we need to muster all the objectivity in our power to resist the constant siren calls that a new bull awaits or (God forbid) is currently in progress and we have missed it already.

    In the meantime the best action is still on the tradeable impulses that arise with predictable frequency along the larger trendline. That is what first attracted my attention to this site incidentally because I was looking for better ways to time the rise and fall of gold for entry and exits and I thought Gary’s method had merit.

    Anyway, we do have a corrective decline on our hands now and I think it will prove in short order that the rise in gold and silver since middle December was never much more than the bear flag that the weekly charts have been warning us about all along.

    There is a very healthy bounce coming though once we get this correction out of the way. Whether it begins from my 1150 target or something a little lower we can’t know for certain until we get there so as always we will just play it by ear until the next bottom proves itself.

  10. Pedestrian

    Note to Terry:

    It’s pointless fighting gold bugs. Nothing you say can change them. They have already been programmed and indoctrinated long ago by the hundreds of ever-so-convincing hype artists that pollute the gold world with all their hopeless ideas of the importance of precious metals. It’s like arguing with born-again Christians about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. You will never win that endless circular debate.

  11. Pedestrian

    Keep an eye on the Nikkei now. If anyone here recalls, it is my assertion the Nikkei will push up towards 20,000 where it will top out and in the process Yen will fall back taking gold with it back to major support. As the Nikkei has already seen 19485 this morning we are not far from knowing if my idea will play out to script.

    We are currently stopped at chart support and may pull back today (Friday) before another run early next week. The outlook for gold is thus bearish until further notice and its worth pointing out again there is an inverse relationship between stock markets and precious metals right now. Should stocks easily blast through overhead resistance (as seen on the Nikkei) then be warned golds decline could be deeper and longer lasting than I first imagined.

    A novel technical pattern in play however warns that we could see a stock market correction unfold once the Nikkei reaches its resistance level should it not succeed in breaking through to the upside. Gold should bounce back hard from that point on so this is worth watching in my opinion.

    As always, predictions on stock market corrections are among the most difficult to make. Thousands have tried and virtually all those forecasts have failed to materialize so this one should also be considered in that light as just an outside chance.

    So take it with a grain of salt (but be ready just in case)

  12. LiesandDamnLies

    Zkotped

    You were one of the few that responded to my predictions about how gold and the various markets would respond to the Chinese holidays and the impact it would have on a rising gold market. It was poo pooed by many and sundry, but not you.

    My prediction on the 25th with a warning that one more drop could happen as it it did on the 26th. However with a new base and target adjustments would have hit the targets NUGT next day 9.77 JNUG next day = 7.92.

    Any here is what I predicted on the 25th anyway

    Jan 25th NUGT = 10.57 >>>> Feb 7 to Feb 9 NUGT ( 14.2 — 20.0) result on the 8th Feb NUGT =13.48
    Jan 25th JNUG =8.68 >>>>> Feb 7 to Feb 9 JNUG ( 13.8 — 16.9 ) result on the 8th Feb JNUG = 12.38

    Result NUGT 10.57 to 13.48 = 27.5% rise
    Result JNUG 8.68 to 12.38 = 42.6% rise.

    Its a rising gold market into a one week holiday for the Chinese traders. You just got lucky some may say. As a stats man it had nothing to do with luck just understanding.

    In your last post to me you mentioned time and statistics. Statistics is all about time more important than the numbers.

    Cheers Lies

    PS Here is how statistics and time works. I live in Canberra in Australia. We had a super storm in January come through at 5pm knocking down tree and power lines all over the city. Well over a thousand households had there power cut off and blackout over the night. When the batteries run out on the laptops and phones what else is there to do. My power only came back on at 14pm the next day.

    How do time and statistics speak to me? There will be a significant rise in births in Canberra 9 months later seasonally adjusted almost approaching three standard derivations.

    Time and circumstances are the statistical gods.

    Cheers Lies

  13. Dreamer

    Trump is Prez and nothing changes as far as the fraudulent control, algo manipulation of all prices in all markets by all the governmental players and their cronies.

  14. Pedestrian

    Dollar is just a few pips away from going through resistance above 1.01 so keep an eye on that today. Gold looks like its bounce point is at 1222 for today but I think we get a harder follow up decline early next week.

    1. Pedestrian

      Yes, Gary and I do not agree on the dollar. There is absolutely no question it will go higher though. Possibly to 1.30 in the next 18 months as the Euro crumbles. I seriously doubt Trump can talk the dollar down either, however briefly, because the dynamic in play is simply outside his control as dollar strength is going to be dictated by a combination of Euro weakness, capital flows into the US, currency devaluation in China etcetera. The prospect of inflation breaking out domestically is laughable and probably one of the stupidest bets one could make right now. By default a strong dollar will defeat any inflationary impulse that may arise due to the many factors that are being talked up by the misinformed such as wage growth, medical costs, rising commodity prices and on and on. In US dollar terms it will just be cheaper in the future to buy just about everything sourced outside the US so buying power will be on the rise. Inflation will however be cruel in Europe and England as we are already seeing and this is almost entirely due to the forces of devaluation playing havoc as confidence in policy prescription ebbs and political discord rise to the surface. The European project is entirely unstable at this point and threatened on multiple fronts. Some surmise the Euro itself may cease to exist although I doubt that too. But I will concede it may see a reduction in the number of participating nations in the coming years and this in itself will create turmoil that is not entirely predictable.

      1. Jacob

        I’ll take the other side of that inflation call. Yellen holds in March, and rumbling starts with the debt ceiling, rates start to rise again as everyone starts to talk about inflation breaking out???

      1. Pedestrian

        So I guess you are in the inflation camp. Care to elaborate? I am curious since it contradicts just about every macro event now taking place in the real world and all of those that are easily predictable.

        Look, the Euro and dollar cannot both fall at the same time. It is mathematically impossible the way they are set up. A country whose currency declines in purchasing power versus the dollar is one who will experience inflation. Look at the United Kingdom and what happened to Sterling as it plunged following Brexit.

        http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-inflation-idUKKBN1420US

        So what does it mean if Europe comes unglued? Well first off the Euro will continue to disintegrate. It is already off almost 30% since 2011 which just masks the severity of the deflationary event that has been taking place over there up until now.

        In other words, policy led moves by the ECB that have been stripping Europeans of buying power for the past half decade have hardly dented the severity of the deflation forces already in play. The fact commodities have been falling for most of that period obviously exacerbated the problem and its not likely Mr Draghi will relent until we finally see a resource price bottom in sight.

        What they have instead is a nasty stagflation-cocktail of zero growth and falling purchasing power amidst unsustainable unemployment across the Southern member states. The only method now available to keep that deflation at bay is to keep destroying the Euro versus the dollar. And its full steam ahead in that department unless Mr Trump gets his way in making Europe pay for its own mistakes rather than shuffling its burden onto the US via a massive ongoing devaluation.

        And yet that’s what will happen as the ECB keeps targeting 2% inflation with its bond buying.
        http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/04/euro-zone-inflation-for-december-rises-to-11-percent-highest-level-since-september-2013.html

        So how do you explain the theoretical rise of inflation in the US other than from a gold-centric point of view? I am saying it cannot happen if the dollar keeps strengthening. That is an objective fact. And neither can gold perform as an inflation hedge if its actually deflation (dollar strengthening) that rules the day.

        LOL back at you, man.

  15. Robert

    It looks like maybe just one leg down left for miners. This correction looks like it will be very short but I doubt it bottomed today, that would be very unfortunate if it did.

  16. ARends

    I presently foresee Considering currencies mentioned by Garry it seems before we reach next target of 1256, we will have to break 1220 before target and in Gary point we possibly might bounce at fib 1231 now that we have up from 1221 then back down to 1213 before retracement we hit 1256 but the key will be the retrace now passing fib 1231 price action up or to Gary possible 1213 as key level.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/HkDn9s9z/

  17. Robert

    So that was the dip ??? lol Man this is hilarious. I’m moving on to oil if this was the dip in gold. This is a waste of damn time, other easier stocks and assets to trade.

    1. bill

      Yep Gold is one of the hardest trades to play Robert, this is why we stress ” longs “. Swig trading the PM sector is futile. None the less good luck in your trades.

    1. Pedestrian

      Just a predictable, mundane bounce back Boss. Don’t be fooled though. I got my sell-signal on gold so watch yourself here if you are thinking about getting in any deeper. Not that what you do is my business. It isn’t. But nothing goes straight up or down so I just want to advise caution. Anyway, what did you expect after a 24 dollar move down in the last day if not a corrective rise as an encore? We hit my bounce target at 1233 that I wrote about earlier in the day and have exceeded it just slightly. The rest of the day will probably be a big boring wash job but next Monday things start to get interesting again.

        1. Pedestrian

          Sorry to disagree but silver has put in a big fat outside reversal bar today and will go down on the next move.

          Gold meanwhile broke its channel support that had been in the making since the 27th this month and all it did today was back-test that support line which has now become resistance. It too has another collision with fate in its future and I for one would not test its resolve to carry through with the trend now in motion.

  18. Option Trader

    I’m happy with my half position here in SLV calls. Today’s action is why I always hold some long positions during a bull run. It makes life a lot less stressful.

    Let’ s try to stay focused here, stick to our goals and be patient. Gary put out a good video yesterday. There’s always going to be a better entry, so patience will reward.

    Let’s see how the day ends..

  19. Don

    Ped I am prepared to see gold dip down to the 1200 area but I am not selling, only buying if gold does go lower. That said, all the PMs have very healthy looking weekly and more importantly, monthly charts. The dips could be shallow and short lived as silver has been demonstrating this morning.

    1. Pedestrian

      Each to his own Don. Personally I hate to hold through declines especially when the prospects of a bounce back are merely conjecture and assumption. We may *think* there is a bottom coming only to be surprised by how much lower price can fall before it hits base. I stick to the short term and take one technical set up at a time. That’s the only way I can feel assured I don’t get caught in positions that go underwater and stay there a lot longer than I expected. When you make the conscious decision to hold a position while it goes negative you are presupposing that the follow up will be in your favored direction (up) but the problem with that is gold is still in a bear market both factually and technically and surprises will continue to be to the downside.

  20. BestOfLuck

    Option Trader,

    So you think today Silver big green close has any implication? ST correction over and now much higher IT target? Thanks

    By the way, I also mainly play option, and found that many stocks or ETF just have horrible decay. So horrible that even on a 2% up day, my calls still lost money. Do you have a list of closely followed stocks and ETF that you regularly trade besides SLV and GLD?

    Thanks

    1. Option Trader

      A strong close today for silver can have big implications. Silver is getting embedded Which is not common But when it does happen watch out.
      This means the trend to the Upside Is getting locked in. I prefer to trade GLD and SLV And GDX Because they are liquid. I trade options that are two to three months out On expiration. That works better for me on the decay On longer-term moves.

  21. Robert

    Lol Ped 1150? Sorry thats not gonna happen. I thought we would hit 1205 but based on today the correction could already be over. Miners now recovered almost all of ydays losses. Its ridiculous

      1. Pedestrian

        Not that I am always correct, Robert. On any given day I stand to be chastened by the reality of the markets but I still do my best to estimate the probabilities using an approach that has been successful for me thus far. But to my way of thinking your assessment is wrong. The rise comes before the fall. What that means is that when you see a daily price increase in gold (or bounce-back) you are likely concluding that gold will move higher still whereas I see that same action and doubt its sustainability. Especially when it creates a topping pattern in the process. What we just saw last night was a break of support and that gives an indication that the rising trend has already reversed, not that higher highs are in the offing. The key words in your post are prophetic. You wrote that miners have “almost” regained all of yesterdays losses. The key word is almost because from a technical point of view if a new high is not posted today then its down we go next week. As always, what really matters is the close and you should watch that later today for insight into Monday. All the rest of the intraday drama is just noise where the charts are concerned. Next weeks daily and weekly charts will show only a single point of importance and that will be the number that comes in when the bell has finally rung on gold at the end of today. Hey, I may be chastened after all. Since nobody but God knows what the final price will be.

  22. Don

    While most of those who have posted on this blog are bullish on gold, only a few have actually taken on a large stake for the long side. Everyone is waiting for a pullback that never seems to be low enough to get in heavy. gary is right when he says that the vast majority never make any real money in a bull market.

    1. macman1519

      Hope u bought the dip, thats it. Gold, silver especially, going up, forget the charts, Trump trumps all, the world of trading is getting used to his outlandish promises with no follow through, “tremendous tax breaks coming in two to three weeks”, ya right, did he forget congress has a say on that one????? All bluster and no reality, his imaginary kingdom is being shown for the sham it is. China has to make a deal with him is what he said in December, yesterday, hat in hand, tail between his legs, Trump says he is fully behind China’s one China policy. The world sees the Emporer for what he truly is, a loud mouth, ignorant bully with not the first idea of how to govern. Remember the Peter principal????? Now called the Trump embarrassment. Buy gold, only going to get worse with Trump, so gold is what you want, but a nice little silver stock that has lots of legs is SVM on Toronto exchange.

    2. dboz

      Silver is leading, it could not be more bullish IMO. If silver gets over 18, 19 can happen quickly as there is very little resistance. If we get any significant USDJPY drop we will blow right through gold resistance at 1250. Yesterday was a gift on the TRUMP TAX talk. Fed talk was rates weaker for longer, should have tanked the dollar, it will happen over the next few days.

  23. Robert

    GDX should turn back down here. I would like to see it close at or under ydays close. That will suggest selloff not over yet. If it closes near the highs then today was probably the bottom

  24. crow

    I have been following this blog for some time. Very helpful. But some of you guys change your views faster than the weather changes. Everything for gold, silver and the miners looks bullish now. We are bouncing off of support at $1120 (gold). But I would like to point out that GDX is now finishing its eighth up week in a row. Can anyone find another example of eight weeks up in a row for GDX? Some people might take that as an indication of an exceptionally strong uptrend. I suppose it is, and we could go to the moon right away. But the odds seem to favor a down week or two very soon.

  25. Robert

    Well thats it everyone. Looks like todays dip this morning was the bottom. We missed it again lol. So gold to 1300+from here? GL I am moving on to stocks and oil. Gold is not worth the stress

      1. Robert

        Ped I meant the dip in miners. If you did not buy at the opening bell then you have misssed the move totally. One would have to have lightning fast instincts/reflexes to have bought at the open. I am willing to just miss out on golds march to 1300. It has become too difficult. The dips only last for few minutes and im afraid to buy higher so just gonna move on. Hopefully early next week wwe revisit the lows from today in GDX

        1. Pedestrian

          GDX? Well sometimes its best to just look at the standard indicators. Money flow, RSI and Stoch’s have all peaked and are rolling over. That can be helpful looking forward and perhaps the market has already spoken. I would not be a buyer here even if it means missing a little more upside. We shall see what transpires next week but I am bearish for a variety of reasons on the next trend.

    1. Paul

      I missed the dip this morning as well, still holding my ERX from Wed. I think oil might have a bit more a of bounce… UPRO, TQQQ, TNA- representing the indexes… all too pricey for me at this time… On gold ETF’s… I think there is more upside… this run is not over… p

  26. Steffmeister

    We will get a deeper correction next week. I am talking about precious metals. Stocks will go higher and or sideways until midsummer but when Q3 arrives, not so much.

  27. Gary Post author

    I was expecting a bit more of a rally out of the dollar before turning back down.

    However if it’s already rolling over then we may not get much more of a correction in the metals.

    The Old Turkeys that are just holding for the full ride up in this intermediate cycle are going to significantly outperform the day traders.

  28. Option Trader

    I think what people need to understand here, This is just the beginning Of a huge move to come. Nobody missed anything Here. But if you don’t get some positionS soon, You’ll be very sorry in a few weeks from now

      1. Pedestrian

        Why would that be DBoz? This is still a bear market in gold and silver. In another two months we will have passed the point at which 1300 dollars will be out of reach based on the existing 5 year falling channel. Any strong bounce should be sold until that time gold can break out of the channel, not bought.

        Thanks anyway, but no regrets here at all.

          1. Pedestrian

            Of course I will sweetie. No loss in that. Its called real life. We all get to be wrong sometmes so might as well embrace it and make it part of our personality. It sure beats the hell out of ignorantly holding on to a prideful failed idea and losing money.

        1. dboz

          I am not planning on losing anything. I think you have blinders on at this point. It should be a huge run. If we get market volatility in there, look out. Just saying, I don’t see any bearish case to be made at this point.

          1. Pedestrian

            Dboz, what I am learning by reading your daily posts is that you are unable to explain your case for gold in a way that convinces me. Saying “It should be a huge run” is not helpful in the slightest.

            A huge run based on what exactly?

            Or are you just buying based on what others say that sounds bullish? Have you already forgotten that back in December 2015 we saw a strong price run in metals and miners that went on for months but almost all of it has been given back since then?

            This years feeble encore does not get me too excited. Not the least of which I don’t know for certain if gold has even hit bottom yet or is just pulling off a little dead cat bounce here.

      1. dboz

        Look at price and volume. That is telling you. Lower price fails. Down on low volume, up on big volume. More buyers than sellers. Bullish behavior. Price is king.

      2. Robert

        No Ped. All you need to see is GDX daily and weekly chart. Daily candle close back above 200MA and pushe up hard today off the 10MA. In my view today negated the chance of a decent pullback. Only people who bought premarket or right at the open got the chance to buy this dip. I think thats it for now, miners will continue their move upwards to new highs. 1220 gold is solid support. Even if gold goes back to 1220 miners might not go down much. I’ll give it till Tues but im doubting it. I missed my chance this morning to buy. Best to move on to other sectors and stocks. Gold too hard to play now

        1. Pedestrian

          Like I said Robert, there is never enough time in a day for me to make a fool of myself and yes, I am wrong sometimes. On the bright side we will know soon enough since Monday is just a few days away. If miners move up I will buy them. If not, its sidelines time. My posts mostly refer to gold itself though and there are some interesting divergences in behavior between metals and miners lately.

        2. WallStreetJesus

          It was a disappointing day if you were waiting for a dip. I had the feeling when things didn’t fall apart during the night that there might not be much of a dip.

          Oh well…..

          Take a look at Cocoa – it is getting very close to a turn… Cocoa can run like silver when it starts moving. Serious money to be made here. The bigger the bear the bigger the bull.

          http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=CC

  29. bill

    So what Exactly what Donald Trump said regarding currency devaluation.

    “As far as currency devaluations, I’ve been complaining about that for a long time. I believe that we will all eventually and probably very much sooner than a lot of people understand or think; we will be all at a level playing field. Because that’s the only way it’s fair. That’s the only way you can fairly compete on trade and other things. And we will be on that field and we will all be working very hard to do great for our country. But it has to be fair and we will make it fair. I think the United States is going to be an even bigger player than it is right now, by a lot, when it comes to trade. A lot of that will have to do with our tax policy, which you’ll be seeing in the not-too-distant future. We’ll have an incentive-based policy, much more so than we have right now. Right now nobody even knows what policy we have. We’re working with Congress, we’re working with Paul Ryan, we’re working with Mitch McConnell and I think people are going to be very, very impressed.”

    There are some eerie hints there.

    He said action will come sooner than people think. He ties it to tax policy but anything that makes US a greater exporter or with lower taxes will inevitably boost the dollar unless they do something to counteract USD strength.

    1. macman1519

      Eerie hints?? How bout gibberish from some one that doesnt have a clue of what hes talking about. It is unbelievable how people see deep thoughts from trumps ramblings. Did u know that Trump called Flynn at three in the morning and asked him if a high or low dollar was good for the US. Flynn’s response, not sure, wouldnt your economic people be better to ask that question? Geez

  30. Dreamer

    It seems everyone, including me, expected this to be a PM and miner beat down day from overnight into the early-mid morning action. Then a turn around came and shocked everyone’s brains into a convulsion. What’s going on, what happened…..I was waiting for it to keep going lower but then……

    Maybe a Jesse Livermore set and forget, where the biggest money he made was just doing nothing, sitting and waiting. Old turkey.

  31. Goild

    No Sir,

    That gold next week will continue up, has not been decided.
    Gold’s drop yesterday reflected Trump’s comments which are along the lines of the election day. So there was an unexpected correction today but not full, it is partial.
    USD is now above the daily averages, while gold has plenty of work to do consolidating the recent gains.
    USD is posing a threat.
    Getting fully on board now is kind of hard. Who wants to get 10K or 20K NUGT shares at this point?
    To get in with 10K or 20K NUGT shares, one must have steel balls.
    The thing is to be intelligent. It has been already worked out by Seykota and Livermore.
    If you are bullish you should be already in. But do not through your whole stance into it.
    Test if you right.
    The downside is a few bucks, say 6 bucks for NUGT 13-6=7, but the upside can be for example the $35 bucks of last year which gives 35-13=22. This is about a factor of 4.
    At this point if one is bullish one needs to take a leap of faith and start building a position adding every time NUGT gets up by one dollar. So on Monday I will put in practice these thoughts.
    I am actually positive for the week and so I will have a nice weekend.
    Have fun!

    So

  32. Gary Post author

    Jeez I told everyone weeks ago how to make money. Just buy and wait till the weekly stochasitics get overbought.

    If you feel you need to throw a hedge in every now and then if it looks like a correction is beginning that’s acceptable.

    But the easy money has been, and will be, made by just sitting tight and allowing the intermediate rally to run its course until sentiment gets overly bullish.

    If I’ve said it once I’ve said it a dozen times. Human nature never changes, and the vast majority of people never make a dime off a bull market.

    And a bunch of you need to quit reading Armstrong’s nonsense. I told you a year ago that he would miss the bottom. He made a big (and stupid) call that gold was going below $1000. Now he’s trying to defend it. Notice how he never posts turn dates for gold to rally. Only dates for it to top. He’s completely missed the baby bull rally and now this one. Completely worthless. You have to ignore this guy or you will miss the entire bull market.

  33. Goild

    Gary,

    There is much good to say about your contention “Human nature never changes, and the vast majority of people never make a dime off a bull market.”

    But you see, we were expecting gold to further drop today and entry at oversold/or at the break of the trend line. That may not happen. Last Sunday you were advising to wait.

    I have missed an entry twice for not carefully planning. So an approach for an entry is in my previous post.

    Nevertheless, thank you for commenting and for your hard work on this site.

    1. Gary Post author

      IMO one should NEVER be out during an intermediate rally. Surprises come to the upside.

      Like I said, one can throw on a hedge from time to time if you think a correction is coming and you know you don’t have the emotional stability to weather it without selling at the bottom, but I would never sell long positions during an IC rally. This is how people miss the entire rally.

      We’ve got a front row seat to it right now. No one can buy because they are more worried about a possible short term pullback when they should be focusing on the bigger picture.

      In a bull market all timing mistakes get corrected. Those that grasp this concept don’t worry about trying to time perfect entries.

      Those that never “get it” miss every rally.

      1. Robert

        True but c’mon we were all expecting a short term pullback in gold, but not so short (2 days). Not even 2 days really because it just blasted straight up on the opening bell. Even you said trend line break.

        Anyway let it run. I’ll just have to miss out. Will wait for a proper cycle low to buy, not this 2 day drop crap. You can’t even see it on the damn chart.

        1. Surf City

          Based on my cycle view, it was a classic half cycle low near day 10. Pull back to the 10ema and then boom, off we go. Text book actually.

          I had limit orders at the 10ema waiting. Some tripped and others did not but I was able to add to some of my positions.

  34. macman1519

    Sure glad im into gold and silver, latest from the trump embarrassment will put the wind into pms on monday. First, Flynn lied about what he said to the Russian ambassador and caused vp pence too lie as well. Fbi have the recordings of flynns communication which show he did talk of relieving sanctions. But it gets even better!!!!! The Fbi have confirmation of some of the claims that were in the british agent dossier thar claimed trump was being blackmailed by his little buddy putin over his escapades with the russian hookers. Oh my, not our, upstanding, moral and god fearing president?? Not another impeachment WITHIN THE FIRST MONTH OF OFFICE. Could be, but this just piles on the uncertainty and zaniness of the trump embarrassment. Ped forget ur charts. Trump is slowly winding himself down a dark pit of inappropriate ties with putin, increasing evidence of lies and demonization of any one with the nerve to challege his excellency, erratic behavior that more and more people are pointing to mental imbalance, and conflicts of interest galore. Thats just in the first three friggin weeks. And you think gold is going to have a major reversal in this environment. Some of u guys and girls are so blind to what is happening. I laugh at yourvamazement of why gold didnt go down more. DUH. TAKE UR NOSES OUT OF YOUR CHARTS AND READ SOME NEWSPAPERS. Oh yea right, fake news. Lol FAKE PRESIDENT IS THE ANSWER. Gold will go up, who knows for how long or how high, but if things keep going south for der fuher, gold will continue to rise. How long before pence is made the president??? Thats when certainty returns and this nitemare ends.

    1. Pedestrian

      I didn’t. And maybe I am just being difficult. But I watch bonds and they did not bottom acceptably so I just don’t believe gold is done here or that price will just keep chugging higher from here on out. Honestly, I don’t see what the fuss is about. December was a decent low. This one has all the markings of a top unless you are purely a short term trader and willing to dump shares quickly again.

    2. ras

      Hello Surf. You did very well. Similarly, wth jnug. Dip to 10.65 was too transient. Possible to buy at $11 plus. You seem to read cycles a bit differently. What are your criteria for hcl and dcl in terms of days and price swing? If this is a HCL, DCL will arrive in 10-12 days?

      1. Surf City

        First, I had the late Jan low as a Trading Cycle Low (TCL) or DCL as Gary calls them. It was day 28 with a 38% Fib retrace and a trend line break (all three are textbook, IMO).

        So Friday was day 10 of a new Trading or Daily cycle in my book and about where we often see a HCL. If you look at the historical charts, Gold HCLs typically touch/test the 10ema and bounce intraday. That is what we saw Friday. Again, classic and textbook from a cycles standpoint.

        Regarding the next DCL, I use timing bands but don’t predict them in advance. Rather, I use my timing bands to start watching for topping clues first. Depending on how bullish this next move is we may not see a top for another 10 or so trading days.

  35. LiesandDamnLies

    Sorry Ped

    From all the posts over the last week or so it seems that you have no skin in the game, or you would be hurting very badly and that your still posting indicates that you are advising from a distance, with no consequences. The silver called on this post earlier today was a tribute almost as good as your 100% Silver to slide earlier last week.

    1. Pedestrian

      OK, now I got that out of my system….

      Look LiesandDamnLies, I cannot make a good bullish case for gold over any reasonable time frame. Short term maybe. But that’s a BIG maybe. There are reasons to get in short term perhaps, but for all this year? You gotta be kidding. Look at a weekly chart of GLD or GDX. The trend lines easily establish falling channels telling us that any upside will be capped. But try making a good case for a rising channel and you will be fudging your charts to make them work. Odds are good that GLD stops out at overhead channel resistance just a few bucks above where we are now. This is still a bear market sorry to say. That is a fact based on the charts today so I am not just making it up. I have not seen anyone make a solid case for a real precious metals bull yet that cannot be easily refuted in one way or another. But go ahead, make my day.

  36. Steffmeister

    I know exactly when the bear in Gold will end 🙂 a hint, look at the high from last summer, what happened then?

    It is impossible to predict the future, but some signals is more reliable than others. This signal is one of the most reliable there is. I am not so sure the bear will end 2017 … the summer high should have been a low instead. On the other hand if bonds has topped soon to be followed by the stockmarket, I expect gold will get a serious bid. Tricky situation.

    The only thing that would bring down all asset classes simultaneously would be a crisis of some sort, like 2008 times 10 and that is not very unlikely is it?

    1. Pedestrian

      A minor crisis may be likely Steff. Its what I think is coming. There is a lot of chatter about how we are entering a recession and that’s often when stock markets correct. And interestingly bonds are near the bottom of their channel. Right where you might expect them to be before an “event” occurs. But of course what we all really want to know is what will happen to gold and miners. So I dug in and looked and the simple answer is bonds and gold almost always rise during corrections and crashes whereas miners almost always sell off with equities. I say “almost always” because there are exceptions. But as a general rule your gold equities will fall despite gold itself going up. So its good news and bad depending on what you own. And naturally it can be really nasty if your are stuck holding the wrong ETF’s the day it comes since there won’t be much time to escape intact.

    1. Pedestrian

      I think so too. What indicators are you using MM? My contention is we have a sharp decline in both gold and long bonds starting early next week. It sounds ridiculous on the surface but the charts are warning something big may be coming. Silver might be ready for a real smash down too and it won’t be pretty if I am right. Fast and furious as they say. Lets just say I am very guarded about markets right now and not prepared to step in front of any moving traffic.

      1. WallStreetJesus

        Usually the big smash downs for the metals begin during the night. For what ever reason they haven’t been able to do that lately.

        Friday was crazy. Platinum was down over $20 in the morning and rallied all day. Silver took off and never looked back on Friday. Palladium was up all day Friday and didn’t even dip. Friday seemed like a crazy day for the metals.

        1. Pedestrian

          Crazy indeed. But if the vultures that live off the carrion of the markets smell a market correction coming they will slam gold down before it arrives (wee hours of course) and be ready to buy it back up before it takes off anew. I am just saying, based on how things are setting up right now that should we get a big drop in gold in the next few days then be prepared to take cover.

          Typical corrections last about three months btw. Long enough to make even the most patient gold stock owners really impatient for a recovery.

    1. MegaMind

      Few technical indicators on Gold daily that I am monitoring that are flashing a sell signal…

      1. CCI 10 has definitely turned down
      2. RSI 5 is close to breaking down the 70point
      3. Fast Stoc has definitely turned down
      4. Slow stochastic is definitely in downtrend… dont stand in the way of slow stochastics ever..

      Also on the miners 2hr charts… one of my main indicator would be the TRIX which has triggered a sell signal… along with all this you got to throw in trend lines, patterns, cycles etc…

      my view is that gold will go to 1300 or so just like G is predicting, but first we need a pull back to scare the weak bulls.

      my potential targets for gold pull back are 1180, 1150(long shot). if it goes to 1180, it will generate the trend line break that gary is forecasting as well…

      1. Pedestrian

        Well done MegaMind. I can hardly agree more. I think you have nailed it and those comments put the bull thesis on a hot plate. I am looking for a nasty sell off in gold to be honest. 1150 is my target but 1180 is sufficient. This has kept me in suspense all this past week as I feel certain based on my own charting its coming. With all that in mind we really have to ask the bulls “what exactly are they smoking!” They make no sense proposing a continued rise when all the indicators on the chats they link are screaming sell.

        1. Robert

          Wrong Wrong Wrong! Fridays impulsive move up from the lows changed everything. Unless gold quickly turns down and shows weakness Monday, then Gold has put in the bottom. I want it to go down but Friday screwed up everything, the buying opportunity presented itself in the first few minutes at the opening bell and we missed out. If gold rallies further into Monday and takes out the 1240’s high toss them indicators out the window because its going to 1300 next.

          1. Pedestrian

            Well I can’t be wrong, wrong, wrong Robert because next week is not even here yet. You can chastise me after the close next Friday if I did not get it right. This is my own speculation naturally. It is not written in stone or anything but rather what I am on alert for. If nothing happens all I lost was a little sleep and not much more.

          2. ras

            Nothing wrong with indicators. They are doing fine. It is only day 10 in the daily cycle. Price took off after touching the 10 day ema. For jnug, price below $11 was too transient, too hard to catch. There was a 2 hour window for folks to get an entry below $11.50. Monday’s opening is the key, Likely, the next stop could be 1300.

            This is not a perfect business. Everyone strikes out at times. Depending on one’s risk tolerance, time horizon and comfort coefficient, one could try to get in on an intra day low, as soon as possible. Easy does it.

  37. crow

    Notice the volume in JDST last week. If a surge in volume in JNUG is a sign of a bottom in the metals (smart money positioning itself) as Gary has suggested, then surely we should interpret the surge in volume in JDST similarly. There doesn’t seem to be any confirmation of this in the volume of DUST. And I think the volume in all these etf’s is increasing simply due to their increasing popularity. But still, the volume in JDST last week was quite remarkable.

  38. Pedestrian

    So what if you wanted to see a correction in markets?

    What would you look for as a likely set-up? I only pose that question to turn the idea around as most people are conditioned to look for strength, not weakness. They might ask themselves if the stock market looks stable enough to keep buying but rarely ever consider what assets they should watch for as signs a correction is coming.

    Because corrections are usually associated with recession we know that basic materials and mining stock can get hurt. So high copper and silver prices are examples of what you would want to see (given your tendency may be to get short those things in advance of a fall you suspect is coming).

    You would also want to see bonds at a lows and the USD near the bottom of its range or pulled back from highs. Why? Because bonds and dollars are run-too trades when the shit hits the fan and preferably you would want to get in cheap just as you are exiting stocks at their peak.

    You would also want to see JPY/USD at lows. Its another place for capital flight when the trouble comes. So long Yen is another option. Same with Swiss Francs. Same with gold.

    And would you not just know it but everything on the list above is just setting up perfectly to be at their respective lows or peaks just as global equities are hitting and exceeding all-time highs in the nose bleed section.

    I know, I know,……its all pure coincidence (cough cough).

    My point is that there is always somewhere to run when the market wobbles and hiccups. And there is also always something to run away from that is toppy and ready to sell in equal parts. Hey, maybe I WILL get another chance to pick up Freeport at nice lows after a correction. Seems like just yesterday it was trading at 4 bucks a share and nobody wanted any part of it.

    Hmmm hmmm hmmm.

  39. Strike

    Bravo! Now this is the kind and civil quality of interplay that this board deserves. Respectful disagreement is why we post and read. There is no place for rankling pettiness. We are all in this together. Thank you!
    And by the way remember when we are on this board we are in Gary’s house. I was brought up to treat your host with respect no matter how much you agree or disagree.
    Gold at 1308 has been the center of oscillation for quite a while. Look at a $GOLD chart. We’ve gone through it several times from both directions with it alternately filling the role of resistance and support, almost to the point of exaggeration. So the number 1300 Mega and Gary and others propose is/will be a magnet at some point. The first issue is whether we go to 1150/1180 first or straight up to 1300. I’m 50-50 on that. The second is do we go through 1308 after some digestion, or collapse.
    Interesting times ahead.

    1. Pedestrian

      Good stuff Strike.

      As an aside to my prior post do you want to know why I feel certain we are going to get a correction?

      Well its because there are not enough shorts in the market anymore. And thus there is no chance of a push higher based on short covering. Actually Commercials are net short but those are the wrong kind of shorts. We would need to see retail traders, hedge funds and other large traders in their place but that is not the case right now. They are mostly all long.

      And that means we are about to see stocks fall.

    1. Pedestrian

      You mean besides the list of ingredients in Heinz57 and the real recipe for KFC chicken?

      Lets just keep you guessing, Bangjang.

      How’s that slope thing working for you?

Leave a Reply