325 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY – GETTING SCHOOLED BY THE BULL

    1. Gary Post author

      The metals will have a dip at some point. But like I keep stressing, don’t be afraid to buy the dip.

      Before this intermediate cycle is over gold will go above $1300 and silver above $20.

      Miners will test, and maybe make new 52 week highs.

      Folks you have to quit listening to the nitwits predicting gold is going below $1000. This is just not how markets work. The bigger the bear market the bigger the bull market will be that follows. The bear market, especially in mining stocks, was one of the most destructive in history.

      It’s going to generate one of, if not the largest bull market any of us will ever see before it’s over.

        1. Gary Post author

          I said don’t be afraid to buy the dip.

          I never said sell. One always has to have a position during an intermediate rally in a bull market. It doesn’t have to be leveraged, but you have to have a position.

          1. zbigkid

            this rise is nothing compared to what’s going to happen from March through at least June for gold.

            I’ve said this before …. way too much cuteness and trading going on in this stuff by people over the past 6 months.

            JNUG up 22% today. You can’t capture that if you are out, and if you are trading it. It cannot be forecasted.
            The moron who runs Slope of Hope, has been lambasting metals, and especially miners. A lot of people have.

            Right now, you have gold rising and interest rates rising, which is a recipe for a disaster in stocks and bonds both. Stocks have not yet been affected, but when they start getting the snot kicked out of them, and they will, you will see fireworks in gold unlike we have seen before. Nothing since the year 1999, comes close to showing what will happen in gold when this stock market and bond market comes completely unglued. The recipe is there for this to happen, and the complacency in the markets is way higher than anyone has ever seen, because its all been masked by 8 years of Fed proppage with the world’s largest put placed under the markets. So all sentiment indicators lost their ability to show any real complacency, because as far as everyone in the markets right now is concern, they actually believe there is no risk. Everyone is totally afraid to short the markets. By mid year, you all will start to realize what I’m talking about.

          2. monkeybiz

            Gary, correct me if I am wrong, but didn’t you advise selling June GDX 24 options in your portfolios just the other week? There was plenty of time left to hold before decay sets in to hold them. It is not going well with the pitch of this post. Just to be fair – you were making jerky moves and selling. I have to say that you are not being terribly polite to people on the blog via your comments along the lines of you morons never make money….maybe if you are a little more elegant in your posts people will sign up again for new higher priced sub offer.

      1. downtrodden

        Gary, I understand buy the dip. But when do you sell? Where does one find the RSI if you want to sell at over bought. I’m trying to increase my number of shares. Thanks really love your blog.

  1. Robert

    Congrats to everyone who made money today. If no decent dip comes soon, guess I will just have to miss this bull run to 1300 gold. I just cannot buy here. Gdx needs to get back in 23’s to be worth it. Any other asset class looking good for a swing?

    1. Gary Post author

      You don’t always have to be leveraged but you should never be out during an intermediate run. At the very least you should hold a position in GDX and GDXJ for the entire duration of the intermediate cycle and convert to leverage when you get pullbacks.

      I can’t tell you how many people make this mistake over and over during every intermediate rally no matter what asset.

      They worry more about trying to time perfect entries than focusing on the big picture.

      Big picture: gold over 1300 and silver over 20. Miners will test the summer highs and maybe make new ones. There is still lots of profit between here and there even if you don’t time perfect entries.

      1. Marc

        Gary, to be fair, you did say you were personally waiting for the DCL before buying on your paid site. Hopefully people followed the MP and not your personal reflections. 🙂

    2. bill

      Cotton is looking good, then there is DRYs and the over all the stock market looks wobbly so a possible short play, lots of collapse talk in the air, not 2008 noise but there are whispers.

      That should excite Mac ….

  2. Don

    Gary, last week you made a couple of posts where you suggested gold may `pop`to 1240 and that might be followed by a more sustained correction. Are you still thinking that is how things will unfold.

    1. Jacob

      Yeah, it must feel good to be able to forget what you predicted a week ago and simply say, “yep, just as I predicted!” I couldn’t be bothered to look back, but I thought you went so far as to say “out in cash with 124% gain, wait for the DCL, no?”

    1. Gary Post author

      Not even close. Bonds are way off their recent highs, but gold is making new highs.

      I told you weeks ago that the correlation between gold and bonds was just a coincidence.

      1. vin

        Gary that is not the point. You have many a time said that bonds will collapse while the gold price will rise substantially.

        That WILL NOT happen. If and when bond collapse, in dollar terms gold will fall substantially. In fact it is even more closely linked. You can observe it even on daily basis most of the time as I have consistently pointed out here.

  3. bill

    Just take a look at the HUI we are well above the 50 ma RSI, MACD, STO moving upwards with plenty of room to run . In my opinion many are gonna be left behind playing the day trade…..

      1. Gary Post author

        Like I told Robert you are never out during an intermediate rally in a bull market.

        You can be unleveraged, but never out.

        This is how so many missed the baby bull rally. They couldn’t bring themselves to buy overbought levels. The bull just stayed overbought for weeks.

        The strategy is to always have a position at least unleveraged, then convert to leverage during pullbacks.

  4. jhmoffett

    Gary — as of yesterday, you indicated you had converted to unleveraged positions in miner ETFs. So I assume you rode today’s rally in those unleveraged positions and will convert back to leveraged positions on a pullback. Is that still the plan?

    1. Robert

      Surf, do you think we will get a decent pullback here soon into a cycle low or is this a new daily cycle? I f it is a new daily cycle then it would more likely run up another 2 weeks and so no pullback.

      1. Surf City

        We may not get a chance. I am loaded up but sold some stock positions late last week to free up some cash. The USD has likely found a short term TCL / DCL and a bounce up towards 101 say should give some room for a buying opportunity.

  5. zbigkid

    Look – even Stanley Druckenmillar is a moron when it comes to gold…

    “Stanley Druckenmiller, who now manages his own $4.7 billion fortune, just bought back his entire gold position after selling it on the night of Trump’s victory as President of the United States.”

    The dumbass overthinks it just like everyone else….

    “He (Druckenmiller) said he was long gold and short stocks going into the election as he thought Hillary would win and we would get higher taxes and more regulation which he viewed as negative. When it became clear that evening that Trump was going to win and gold was up big and equities were down big, he sold his gold and got long stocks. It didn’t make sense to him that gold was up big and equities were down as he thought Trump would be in favor of lowering the corporate tax rate and paring back regulations, which he viewed as positive for equities. He said he has been able to do a fairly good job of not getting emotional when it comes to investing and joked that his friend George Soros may have not been able to do the same thing over election night. I also thought it was interesting that he said since selling his gold he has bought it back. He didn’t make any comments as to the size, but said it was an interesting story and unfortunately he didn’t have the time to go into it. It was a real treat to get to hear him share his thoughts at his speaking engagement at Purdue University. (says the groupie moron who witnessed him speak)”

    1. ras

      Like the rest of us, he is only human. Anyway, he is back in when price is beginning to accelerate. Evidently, big money is moving into pms. It is reflected in the way price moves.

  6. Dreamer

    Druckenmiller…….well I guess he is a drunk who drinks Miller and he needs Gary to manage his gold investments or at the very least come over to the Smart Money Blogger and join us.

  7. Steffmeister

    Ok, the open interest analysis expected some fireworks and now we have it. Gary said the easy trading/money was over, o’boy he was wrong. This is a classic third wave in elliott wave terms, so the Bear may be over !

    We have to wait and so for further developments. Yes I missed to get back in JNUG, but I am all in miners.
    I’ve got a freeride position in JNUG thats less than 3% of my portfolio, I was thinking to get back in with at least 6-7%. I think the dips is going to be very shallow from now on. Remember the 2-8Feb timeline for buy it will soon be over so I guess you just have to jump in or you would risk to miss the rally.

  8. Bv

    Come on Gary, you’ve thrown us a curved ball here, or for non Americans and members of the Commonwealth, you’ve bowled us a Googly. I don’t think you made clear at the start the difference between the way you play leveraged and unleveraged funds. Your buy the dip strategy only relates to leverage funds, otherwise you should just be holding and riding the bull? Wish you’d made this clearer right from the start.

    1. Gary Post author

      I did make it clear.

      If you want up to the minute updates you need to get a subscription. This is a free blog after all.

      I’m not going to trade for you on the blog.

        1. Gary Post author

          You absolutely are not going to get real time trades on this free blog.

          I’ll probably be doing fewer and fewer posts as the bull progresses. I’ve given out more than enough free info.

          1. Bv

            No problem Gary. Thanks for the reply. I’ve done well, but I should just of taken your advice and gone Old Turkey and turned the computer off. But, as you say, it’s easier said than done. Good luck.

  9. terrywg

    Bulls overexuberant as usual.

    Shorting another tranche of spot gold now at 1235 (currently at a 150 pip loss). Still holding on to my short eurusd (currently at a 100 pip profit) and entering another tranche long of usdjpy at 111.85 (currently at a 100 pip loss).

    1. Gary Post author

      Geez you day traders will never learn.

      Like I keep saying, most people will never make a a dime off a bull market.

      Quit worrying about dips. If they occur buy, or buy more. Otherwise just hang on for the ride. Trying to trade in and out of an intermediate advance is a sure fire way to underperform or lose money.

  10. Goild

    It looks like today we may have an opportunity to get in at a good price.
    USD is +0.73% and today there is no divergence with usd/yen which is +0.61%.
    Yesterday’s after 2:00 PM NUGT overdid and this morning has leveled.

      1. Pedestrian

        None of the above TraderPete. All good on my end. I am still working with my correlation model but there have been hiccups. I am really in a struggle with the timing but there is no substantive change in my outlook with the exception it is not coming together as quickly as I imagined.

        So I had nothing new to add. Why blog is it just muddies the waters?

    1. Dday

      “…(Kitco News) – Gold managed to touch our suggested intra-day target of $1,237 yesterday, but comments from Philadelphia Fed President. Patrick Harker, that a March rate hike was on the table, coupled with ECB President Mario Draghi’s comment, that the winding down of the bond buying program was premature, slammed the dollar and gold sellers re-emerged. Equity markets in the U.S. this morning are also indicating a higher open — enough cause for traders to lighten up and take profits in gold. Consolidation is not necessarily a bad thing, but gold needs to hold the $1,220 area to retain a short-term bullish bias. The upside is contained at $1,237 and unlikely to be taken out today. Current pressure is weighted to the downside given dollar and equity strength”….Peter Hug

      The most rational unbiased reflection of gold i could find…..

  11. Robert

    USD broke of the downtrend line last night and now a bullish engulfing on the daily so far. I think gold will start a cycle up move now, so hopefully gold will sell off for the rest of the week. USD should top out in the 101s maybe 101.5 – 102.0 so we still might get a buying opportunity in miners.

      1. Robert

        Yes it would be a dead cat bounce in USD so hopefully gold has some more downside so for thos of us like me who missed out on this rally we can buy GDX little cheaper. Hopefully!

  12. Strike

    Hey OT – you just wrote, “A pullback would be nice though… many of us are trying to add here.”
    When Robert and I implied the exact same thing yesterday, you dissed us for not being long and strong enough yet. Hmmm

    1. Option Trader

      Hey, if you have long positions on your portfolio for the long term, all to you.

      I was just referring to those that are trying to day trade the metals run.

  13. bobbington

    Gary I Looked at JNUG and JDST over the past several years, and noticed that BOTH have gone down. JDST was down even before the baby bull rally. CLearly the 3x decay hit JDST hard.

    Have you done any calculations to see how likely it is that decay eats up JNUG?

  14. Dreamer

    Putting technicals aside, what is the market sniffing out fundamentally/ geopolitically, etc?

    Big inflation, trade wars/renegotiation of trade pacts/Upcoming votes in Netherlands and France to leave the EU (like GB), Debt saturation worldwide, no rate hikes by the FED, more unlimited money printing by the FED and CBs, a China Gold surprise announcement.

    In other words, a financial system that the FED and their CB cronies have destroyed that is careening in the 9th inning of the ballgame. Can they keep papering this financial edifice over for more years without destroying the system. It’s so rotten to the core.

    1. Gary Post author

      There was never any reason for gold to drop on election night to begin with. The only reason it did was the intervention in the stock market stretched the currency cycles, which in turn stretched the gold cycle.

      The markets are now resuming their natural path.

      This is why so many people keep getting these things wrong. They continue to believe in free markets, and we just simply don’t have them anymore. Free markets ended when the SEC banned short selling in financials, and when QE1 began.

      1. Mac

        Of course there were reasons and it had nothing to do with interventions or manipulation. It was all about positioning based on changing expectations. I assure you that professional traders were at their desks or rushing back to them as the results came rolling in.

        1. Gary Post author

          I haven’t seen much evidence of manipulation in the metals for months. The banks got busted and are paying multimillion dollar fines.

          There is massive manipulation in the stock market though. Central banks discovered they could control the business cycle by propping up the stock market.

          The intervention to prevent the market from opening limit down the day after the elections also affected the currency markets causing the dollar and euro cycles to stretch to ridiculous lengths. This also stretched the gold cycle.

  15. Daytrading King

    165% leveraged Long, but you bought only yesterday AFTER the gap open. That’s a weak hand. This will end like all the other times. Key is to buy before it gets so overbought.

  16. Robert

    Today marks the top. Profit taking to happen on miners. USD should make it to 101.5 so still waiting for the dip to buy GDX. GDX should wipe out all of ydays gains soon. I might start buying at GDX 24.5 and then every 50 cents lower (24, 23.5, 23)

    1. WallStreetJesus

      Ok buddy I am counting on your analysis. I am going to move the big money in and buy where you indicated. You are right it does look like the top.

      If you are wrong we will suffer together along with others.

      In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king!!

        1. WallStreetJesus

          Hey I won’t blame you!! This is just a guessing game. I have suffered a big drawdown before so that’s nothing new.

          I do think you are right and we are going to get a pullback soon. I thought it would have started a couple days ago but I am always early.

          Time will tell.

    1. WallStreetJesus

      Haha there is probably big money to be made on the downside in the stock market but I am not sure it will happen in our lifetime thanks to the central banks.

  17. Don

    Not sure why Gary thinks there must be a dip in the PMs at these levels. None are stretched to far above their 200 day moving averages. As far as the cycle length is concerned, I have yet to see where they have worked out reliably.

    1. Surf City

      I am expecting a Half Cycle Low based on the USD bouncing out of a short term DCL. The USD has been very weak of late but a close above the 10ema is the first step to confirming a new Trading of Daily cycle.

      I have the USD on day 3 right now and am looking for another 3-5 days of a bounce here.

    2. ras

      Cycles by themselves are not reliable. Recently, some analysts mistook DCL as HCL. We need confirmation from other tools. If one is running an SM letter, an analyst needs to lay out his take on cycles. If it pans out, he gets the bragging rights. Otherwise, blame goes to market manipulation.That is the way it works.

        1. ras

          Hi, surf. Thanks for the clarification. The point i was trying to make is that cycles are subject to interpretation like all other indicators. Actually, price pulled back to rising 20 day ma with stochs at buy level, which is a text book buy signal. You have reached the same conclusion using cycles.

  18. Robert

    We might see some sort of head and shoulders on miners this week. GDX undercut 25 slightly back up to maybe 25.3 and then the decline starts. I still expect all of yesterdays gains to be wiped out. Gap at 24.5 to be filled but not sure if much lower than that.

  19. macman1519

    Throw ur charts out, Trump ‘ s irrational behaviour, now the fake news media has under reported terrorism, where does this guy dream this stuff up, with this guy in charge everyone is going gold, how can you not? Buy gold is the long term strategy, nothingbwill get better with Trump in charge, the world knows it, hence gold will go ballistic very soon. If the San Fransico court of appeal rules against Trump tonight, watch gold fly tomorrow, just saying, ok guys back to ur charts that for some reason just arent working out for u gold haters.

        1. Dang

          Macman, might be better for you to stick to the subject of the board and keep away from Trump bashing. Your bias is showing and red doesn’t look good on you.

          1. tulip

            hes not bashing.
            Moriarty has a v good commentary on PAP…. w Maurice Jackson
            321Gold. yesterday. Soros , media dividing & conquering.
            Both parties are dismal. The democrats lost.
            For good reason.

  20. dragonfly

    Have to tell you gary that when even you where getting bearish a bit over a week ago, I told you I was gonna think about if I chould see this as a buying signal. well I bought some (extra) NUGT the next day and I must say, I´m not regretting 😉
    Cheers Gary!

  21. Robert

    Selloff underway. Gold double top. Calling it now GDX 24.6 and lower coming. USD backtested the breakout and now holding so USD should start to rally to 101.5. Lets hope there is a flush out of the late gold buyers so we can get in cheaper!

      1. ras

        In a strong up trend, it is not productive to outguess price. We had a BO after a fairly long sideways move. Once BO occurs, price seldom moves into trading range.

    1. WallStreetJesus

      There be a good buying opportunity coming. If you want gold to go lower you can always buy just a little. Once you are in the trade the price should drop. That ever happen to you – as soon as you buy something the price drops. If it doesn’t drop and keeps going up then you still win.

    1. Robert

      I would love that but look what happened last time. I will try to buy earlier because we may not get any deep pullback. I am watching USD. When that hits around 101s I will start buying miners and keep buying if it goes lower. If it goes down deeper so be it but I am trying not to get left out again

    1. WallStreetJesus

      I wondered the same thing about the “scorch”. I enjoyed reading his posts and calling every market turn.

      I wonder if he blew up his account?

    1. ras

      Brief intra day $0.50 dip in nugt. That was the opp. for folks who wanted to get in. With a strong weekly UT, the market manufactures what is needed in cognate areas to support that trend. Indicators behave differently in impulsive and reactive modes.

  22. Gary Post author

    On a different topic it looks like oil has started moving down into its YCL. They have been coming in the spring the last several years.

    Should be a good buying opportunity in the energy sector once the weekly stochastics reach oversold.

  23. dboz

    The gains off a $100 gold move have been substantial for miners. I can only imagine if we get north of 1400 and mix in some market volatility to get big money rolling into them where we may go.

  24. zkotpen

    terrywg

    “Bulls overexuberant as usual…
    Shorting another tranche of spot gold now at 1235”

    I concur on your first point.

    But looks like a nice triangle, with divergences shaping up in gold for another pop. That is on my chart one degree lower than the daily cycle, BTW.

    I am still wondering when gold will challenge its 200 day SMA.

    At any rate, might I constructively point out you seem to have an itchy trigger finger?

    Make not haste, kind sir.

    If you’ve read my previous comment, as well as my thoughts over the past couple of weeks, you know I’m looking at a potential double zig zag for the yearly cycle rise, with the first ICH nearing completion in a 2nd DC rise. As you suggest, the bulls are ebullient, but shorting moves will require greater precision. After all, even the IC decline will likely be going against the YC rise.

    There is an area of the Atlantic Ocean south of Bermuda called the Sargasso Sea, popularly called “Horse Latitudes”, commemorated by a poem that’s prelude to that famous song by The Doors that established the artistic bond between Morrison & Manzarak on Venice Beach in the mid-1960’s. It lies east of the notable Gulf Stream, and, unlike the rather swift warm current, the Sargasso Sea is characterized by relatively little movement of the air and sea. Heavy Spanish Galleons, the likes of which got whamboozled in 1588, found themselves tossing much of their cargo overboard, including such valued items as transportation engines — horses — in order to cross the wide ocean & reach land before running out of food.

    People are in the mood for fireworks in gold, but I’m not so sure they are on tap any time soon.

    1. terrywg

      @zkotpen

      Ty for the advice, it is much appreciated.

      I do have a tendency to be a little early, but I usually scale into my positions in 3-4 tranches, so timing is less of a concern for me. Unlike what Gary thinks, I am not a day-trader: I trade on a time-horizon of several weeks. In any case, the PMs and BMs only form about 15percent of my total portfolio. I also don’t trade gold miners nor ETFs but instead trade spot gold. Because of the volatility in the price of spot I can at any given time be taking massive losses on new positions. However, I got into gold when it was 1090 last year, so half my portfolio in metals are priced very very cheaply.

      2016 was a really good year for me (you can read my outlook and investment thesis that I wrote in january last year: https://medium.com/@kcl/whither-2016-4a309c3c1b64#.qdc8nvexc). I will be writing another forecast for FY2017 soon so if you are interested I will link you once it is done.

      How much of a pop do you see happening in gold in the near-term? Based on my charts I do not see it going past 1260 anytime soon. That is why it makes sense for me to start scaling into my positions at this point in time

    2. terrywg

      Also, I love taking a contrarian trade and have found it to work for my investing style over the past 8 years in currencies and metals. When I see the message boards fill up with bullish/bearish sentiment that is usually one of many warning bells that put me on notice. You might say that this is non-empirical in nature but it has proven to be a very good indicator for sentiment!

      1. Gary Post author

        Short term sentiment is neutral on the metals right now. GLD, GDX & GDXJ are all at 60% bulls.

        The next technical resistance would be between 1243 and the 50% fib at 1251.

  25. zkotpen

    Gary

    “There was never any reason for gold to drop on election night to begin with.”

    There most certainly was. It’s called the Yearly Cycle Decline, which I was forecasting to continue within a week of observing gold’s & GDX’s behavior at their respective 200 day SMA’s. The real surprise was that huge spike, which made the Intermediate Cycle extra-left translated, portending more downside, not recovery. Of course, GDX’s failure to make a new high the following morning was telling.

    Gimme some public credit — I called the whole move down right here on the blog, since September.

  26. zkotpen

    now listening to “Strange Days” album.

    My cousin turned me on to The Doors in the summer of 1981, and that changed my life forever. That’s the summer when I quit watching TV, age 13.

    I listened to The Doors all the time thru high school, when they were Absolutely NOT Live.

    I don’t think I had a single friend who shared that listening experience with me.

    No worries…

    Track 5…

    When the still sea conspires an armor
    And her sullen and aborted
    Currents breed tiny monsters
    True sailing is dead
    Awkward instant
    And the first animal is jettisoned
    Legs furiously pumping
    Their stiff green gallop
    And heads bob up
    Poise
    Delicate
    Pause
    Consent
    In mute nostril agony
    Carefully refined
    And sealed over…

      1. bill

        I guess you clowns never heard of covering before.Besides I added several thousand shares as well so the loses have been absorbed weeks ago….Traders huh? I have my doubts.

    1. terrywg

      Very, very wrong bill.

      While I don’t consider myself a day-trader, I think you are generalising here.

      And while the bulls on this comment board were holding through a terrible drawdown from August to Jan, a lot of us were making bank. Why? Because we don’t have a directional bias and we love it when there is volatility.

      You guys have terrible short-term memory. Keep on picking bottoms and eventually you will get it right. I subscribe to Gary’s paid service so at least I know his exit/entry… you on the other hand I’m not so sure.

      1. Gary Post author

        LOL you have no idea what you are talking about. We didn’t hold from August to Jan. We exited at almost the exact top. We got in a little too early after the first leg down and got caught when gold generated a failed cycle. But we exited during the bounce once gold moved back below 1275. Then we reentered very close to the bottom of the YCL and have been riding this ever since.

        None of this day trading nonsense for us.

        The end result is we are already well above the highs from August. By the close today the leveraged portfolio should be +170% -+180%.

        I also checked and your email is not in the subscriber files so you aren’t a member and would have no idea when the real time calls were issued.

        I said it dozens of times but no one ever paid any attention. In a bull market all timing mistakes get corrected.

        Like I said most people never make a dime off a bull market.

        1. terrywg

          Stop being so defensive Gary. It’s unbecoming. I am subscribed under the handle riskybisket.

          I was addressing the under commenters on the comment board. Read my words more carefully next time. I already pointed out that YOU can verify your entry/exit.

        2. WallStreetJesus

          Gary – I think you need to go a little farther in your statement. Not only do most people not make a dime off a bull market. Most people LOSE money off a bull market. Those are the facts.

  27. ARends

    The present event with Trump and Iran, France is one thing for GOLD but knowing the following puts another spin on the winds that will be chasing and escalating with events in China .

    Previously China was mentioned and in many other articles I have read confirming the proof of hidden and disguised figure from them but: China’s Demand for Gold Can’t be Met…very encouraging to know that they already pay a 25% premium on price of gold and demand is escalating with considering a population nearly a 1/4 of the world.
    https://dailyreckoning.com/chinas-demand-for-gold/

    Then: The Swiss Federal Customs Administration said in January that its gold bullion exports to China rose to 158 tonnes (WOW) in December from 30.6 tonnes in November, according to GoldSeek.com, a website for gold investors.
    http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2068101/china-stocked-swiss-gold-turbulent-year-came-close.

    Gold is really entering unprecedented times from now and previous statements of Gary that might not fall in any technical preview (unless you recognise the long-term bull correction we came out of) but the winds of change and all other events present, financial awaited crises..we are going to see the bull to no equivalent of time with $5000 might really not seem as a laugh but a huge probability. The factors are just stacking up as never seen before.

    Sad for the world but great for PM! Great trading all!!

  28. terrywg

    In any case, it feels as if I am no longer welcome here. I will take my leave.

    Ped, zkotpen and others on the board, if you’d like to get in touch my email is [email protected]. I would love to remain in contact but sadly I do not think I will be posting here any longer.

  29. Gary Post author

    I’m starting to wonder if the euro is forming a HCL and it still has one more pop higher (possibly along with the yen) before the real DCL.

    That would mean the dollar formed a fakeout DCL. The bounce so far has been very weak.

    What happened to the shortage of dollars we were hearing about a couple of weeks ago?

  30. Option Trader

    So as you guys know, I’ve been watching Silver over the last few weeks. Not much else to say here about it, I’m just staying in my SLV Calls.

    But, as I indicated yesterday, I’ve been watching TWTR carefully. I’m getting nice set ups for TWTR on the longer term charts but waiting for a confirmation next week.

    In addition to what I’m seeing develop on the TWTR charts, guess who’s the big shot on Twitter these days? Guess how many people have been following him and joining?

  31. WallStreetJesus

    YIKES!! – I thought we would get a pullback this week. That’s the problem in a bull market. Then there is the fear of missing out FOMO. Hummm – Is it too late to buy…..

      1. WallStreetJesus

        We could be in the midst of a big bond rally which is why the metals continue to be strong. Perhaps there will be no pullback. I think bonds could rally for awhile.

  32. ras

    Pull back this week? Unlikely. Pull up a weekly chart and look at the white candles, with 2 more days to go in the week. Price comfortably above weekly mid BB.

  33. Option Trader

    SLV is getting close to its 200 DMA
    GLD is getting close to its 200 WMA

    I may consider going down to 50% of my calls when we wrestle with these areas.

  34. Robert

    If today is not the top its very close. Major resistance levels here for GDX and Gold. Ill be surprised if they just get taken out today. Profit taking has to occur soon this is just pure greed

    1. Pedestrian

      I agree Robert. We are seeing an overshoot in price right now. But we can pretty safely ignore the intraday and overnight numbers if gold closes lower. It is all that really matters to the chart pattern at the end of the day. Tomorrow, the daily chart will read according to its prior close, not the spike we see now. Same goes for weekly. That’s what suckers bulls again and again. Gold can rise right into the end of the week but what matters to the chart is where price sits at 5pm EST for spot and if you are not aware of that you can make the wrong decision about whether to be long or short for the coming week.

      1. Robert

        A number of Fed speakers and Yellen next week. Im pretty sure they will put a lid on gold. Plus since this gold rally started there has not been any sort of cycle low. My target for GDX is still 24.5. How low you think GDX can go Ped?

        1. Pedestrian

          Not sure Robert. Right now I watching to see if gold puts in another number below 1233.75 which is yesterdays ending spot and that would generate a daily bearish reversal. That’s a drop of 9 dollars and change from where we are now and certainly within a normal days movements. Fridays close is high on my radar as well because its going to tell us if this current up-move will stick longer or if its cooked and done like Roast Turkey. We already posted a numbers both above and below yesterdays close so technically our reversal is here. I am just curious to see if we retest the nights low point a second time.

  35. ras

    Many folks seem to spend lots of time on forex movements. Of course, these movements do influence commodity prices. The modalities of this influence are very complex and can be appreciated fully only in hindsight. Since these influences are implicitly factored into pm price movements, a balanced approach would be to watch price action of select group of pm stocks and etfs with a peripheral look at forex movements. This can be a great time saver. Just one view point.

  36. Option Trader

    The Bollinger bands are now close enough to the 200 MA’s to be cautious here.
    Sometimes candlesticks to reverse before even touching the MA
    I’m long term bullish but time to watch today’s daily close for a reversal candle.

  37. earthkitten

    Gary. You mentioned that sentiment in gold is neutral. What
    percent would turn sentiment bullish. RSI on GDXJ is over 70.
    Is it probably a good idea to wait for sentiment to get a lot higher
    before thinking about moving to the sidelines in GDXJ especially
    With an RSI over 70. Thanks again for your charts & videos.

    1. Gary Post author

      RSI has nothing to do with sentiment.

      Intermediate sentiment should rise to at least 75% bulls before the intermediate cycle tops. It has been as high as 89% bulls during the last bull market. Right now it’s at 49%.

  38. Don

    I think we may see a slowing of the rise in PMs or at least a sideways consolidation for a few weeks. Anyone buying DUST is going to have a rough go of it. The stock market is where my focus is now. A big sell off is coming and I am ready or it.

    1. WallStreetJesus

      Haha Don you are the man. I would love to see a big sell off in the stock market. It is certainly is well deserved. I wonder if it will happen because for what ever reason the powers to be want to keep the stock market propped up.

      1. Pedestrian

        The correlations suggest that February is probably the month for a correction of some kind. I have expended more brain cells than I actually own (yes, I get them on credit) trying to figure out where and when the reversal will arrive and all I can say at this point is that we will be set-up for it once the 30 year bond and gold bottom but when that happens is not quite certain. As I said before, gold and bonds cannot enjoy a sustained rally off their eventual bottoms unless equity markets also turn down. I think we will see both those things happen.

  39. Robert

    Gary 4-8 days rise in the USD coincides perfectly with the FED speakers this week and Yellen next week. We should get the next buying opportunity by early next week in miners

        1. Robert

          Bulls are getting too cocky and arrogant now. A good flush is needed to make late comers panick before next leg up. If not then we might see a repeat of last year where gold miners just keep going up with no pullback and then a 50% loss of gains later in the year

  40. ARends

    USD has a resistance and fib and could be H&S to drop, JPY is doing wedge at a resistance that could break trough at a fib but not great resistance. So we might have Gold doing not much of a draw back….so winds are behind and china should be back tonight….mmm.

    1. Paul

      I exited JNUG yesterday, I could have held for more gains… but I had a busy afternoon… so it made sense at the time to just be out… I am good on 2 Swing Trades in JNUG… my goal is to lock in profit and perhaps buy again if we have a pullback… in the meantime; today I have taken a position in ERX 34.30… wait n see if a quick bump up happens 🙂

    2. ras

      Not sure, smart or otherwise. Yesterday around 10 a.m. was not a bad sell point, before digital profits melt away. Wet noodle price action. Looks familiar: rise, sideways and pull back until forex finishes its struggling bounce. Time will tell. Not worried about missing further upside.

      On this blog, there is an oft repeated categorical assertion that most traders “will not make a dime off this bull market”. Probably, in their estimate, the number of dimes in 10 k is a trivial number.

  41. zkotpen

    Gold will keep going up for now.

    If you don’t like the horse latitudes metaphor from yesterday, then let’s just say gold is stopping to smell the roses… and gardenias, and floripondios, and every other fragrant flower… along the way.

    Still not getting the divergences yet. More upside to go.

    Just mosey on up to the 200 day SMA, far as I can tell, so far.

    Consolidating all day long… since yesterday… GDX too.

      1. zkotpen

        !! ~~ Funny guy or gal ~~ !!

        LoL LoL lOl…

        You saw gold drop half a percent, you freeeked out & sold & then write goofy nonsense about me. OMG!

        Ha ha ha ha…

          1. vin

            Are you really that dense?

            Look at the time of my posting?

            What was the price of gold at that time?

            Not only you are consistently wrong, you are too arrogant to admit it.

          2. vin

            Anyhow, what has my action to do with your lousy predictions? Can you be right once for a change? Even flipping a coin will get you a tail 50% of the time.

            And, you consider yourself to be smart?

  42. dboz

    Premarket dips are occurring daily. Just a tease for those looking for entry. Bounce right back strongly. I think we are going to run longer here than most expect. It will pull back but by then the pullback will be higher than buying here. Easy to see why most never make a dime in a bull market. As Gary said you get a big day of gains then the chop. Pullbacks are shallow and quick as buyers rush in on any dip. The dollar continues to struggle at higher price. Rallies get sold quickly as the dollar unwinds.

  43. Goild

    Good morning

    Being left out I guess must be treated as a loss: accept it and move on.
    There is pain both ways while losing and while winning. There is the temptation always to sell while winning to secure gains and the uncertainty that a top has been reached.
    The thing as usual is to learn from the action.
    And there is no one who has it right all the time.

    Good trading to all.

    1. bill

      Traders are funny characters when they choose a winning side they let it be known to the world I’m winning but when they choose the wrong side they let the world know there is no wining for anyone lol you Can’t make this shit up lol

  44. dboz

    Dollar and gold have been moving up together. Not sure you can base much, if anything on any correlations. It appears enough money is coming in to overpower any algo trading patterns at this point.

  45. Goild

    I agree, the chances for a dip are slim. We may have a bear trap and then today as it is a Thursday, a strong day, we may break toward $1250. The prospect is to close a strong week.

  46. ras

    Nothing goes straight up. There will always be at least some kind of shallow dip intra day resulting from trading activities of day and swing traders. That is a given.

  47. Robert

    Everybody on this website is Bullish. Everyone in the media is bullish gold, every article etc. We will get a dip! Everyone is cocky and arrogant so you need to feel some pain for the next leg higher. Clean out the newcomers!

    1. bill

      The media ha ha ha ha ….. yes now there is a solid measurement to follow . That . Whole .91 cents makes me want to run for the exits . Robert you do more talking down the position than anyone in this forum lol let’s try and lighten up in the hypocrisy shall we .

      1. Robert

        Bill you are gonna say that I was right. Its gonna be more than 91 cents. I told you few days ago that the whole move on Fri is gonna be wiped out. GDX will see 24.5 or lower!

        1. bill

          Lol just breaking balls Robert all good I added 300 @ 12.43 sitting on some serious shares I’m sticking to my opX call … next week. This low was due to the consumer confidence number no doubt.

  48. dboz

    This move is why I don’t use stops. Trump talks about a phenomenal tax plan coming and everything moves quickly on the news. It will probably settle back in soon. Would get stopped out then the stuff bounces right back as you sit out missing the rebound.

  49. bigglaze

    Something also interesting. The VectorVest system suggests buying gold when the 10-day crosses the 65-day combined with their proprietary timing metric reaching 1.0 on the HUI. You can see this happening now. The cross over is complete and the metric is at 0.97. This also confirms a new uptrend:

    https://scontent-atl3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/16649281_10101925815947409_8162814716092791182_n.jpg?oh=12357f2791bbe9f41ed037478f101186&oe=59049310

  50. Gary Post author

    And yet again you see why you can’t short the stock market.

    People it’s a rigged system.

    You can’t fight the Fed and their printing press.

        1. Gary Post author

          I predict the same thing will happen that always happens. Traders that claimed to be waiting to “buy the dip” will panic and not be able to pull the trigger and they will let the opportunity pass them by.

          Human nature never changes.

  51. Don

    The stock market is kicking me in the teeth. On the bright side, platinum is doing well. (yes, i posted weeks ago that I was loading up on platinum and silver)

    1. Gary Post author

      One can’t short oil for the same reason you can’t short the stock market. It’s a rigged market.

      Just think of all the money you would have saved already if you would only listen to me about shorts.

      1. Pedestrian

        Watch the Canadian dollar Don. Where it goes oil often follows. I think we have a really sharp drop coming fairly soon although timing that is never easy. We should be setting up now for a decline that will start just about anytime. Possibly even tomorrow.

    1. Pedestrian

      Gold is capped here and its going to begin a period of decline. I don’t see anything on the RS!5 that would make me want to buy right here. Is that what you are referring too? It’s still in oversold territory and just beginning to fall but you will have a wait before a buy zone kicks in again.

        1. Pedestrian

          I buy all the time. If you really mean I don’t join hands with the gold bugs, clap in fervent unison and sing Kumbaya while bleating like a stunned sheep heading for the abatoir then yeah, I am not one of you guys.

  52. Hamish

    Gary, I have never heard you so dismissive of people on here and sounding so confident in yourself. I like it!

    I’m sure there are many ex subs like me looking to get back into full membership.

    How about one of your money back specials if you don’t reach a certain target?!

    1. Gary Post author

      Actually I’m making it harder for people to rejoin. I want to get rid of the day traders and people that have no chance of making any money off the bull. They just clutter up the site and make it harder for the rest of us.

      1. ras

        This blog is just a sounding board. It is a stretch to think that anyone trades depending entirely on what is posted here. There is lot of burn out in this business. At some point, some of the posters may become your subscribers. I would let anybody post his opinion within the bounds civilised discourse.

  53. Strike

    Pedestrian,
    I believe what MegaMind is referencing is the RSI5 for $USD on the daily. Gary I believe said somewhere on this thread that when that touches overbought it mighr be buy in time for gold. He thinks the dollar won’t stay overbought for long and will head downward after the touch (I believe into ICL but not sure).
    He had referenced RSI5 for gold/miners previously but the dollar touch was his more recent indicator.

    1. Pedestrian

      OK thanks. You know, I looked at GLD since I thought he was referring to gold and then I didn’t mention what chart I was using either. No wonder this place is so confused some days!

    1. Robert

      Of course we are! It has now started. Look for GDX to decline again tomorrow into early next week. It will catch gold bugs by surprise. Gold miners might gap down one of these days and longs will be forced to sell in a panic!

  54. BestOfLuck

    Calling Option Trader! Congrats to your great call on Silver!

    What’s the path forward for ST and IT for the previous metals? Thanks.

    And do you still recommend buying TWTR?

    1. Option Trader

      Thank you BOL. Hoping to join the rest of the gang to buy back more shares over the next week or two.

      As far as TWTR. I got my butt smashed on this call entry and I deserve it. I was too anxious to spend my SLV gains, I didn’t go with my first goal and wait for my set up confirmation next week. Shame on me and lesson learned.

      Patience will reward for all of us. I’m sitting back now and waiting for an entry on precious metals.

    1. dboz

      It did not seem to have the desired affect. On election night they dropped 8 tonnes for that monster drop, all they could manage today was about 10 bucks and it could get soaked right back up tonight.

    1. Robert

      Bill you should have took profits when I said. Now expect a sharp drop in GDX (NUGT) & JNUG. Right here it is closing weak. By tomorrow or Monday you will see GDX 24.5 or lower!

  55. Option Trader

    We’re at strong resistance levels (200 DMA’s) on the metals. Not to be surprised by a pullback here.
    Best thing to do now is sit on our hands and be patient, it’s important to accumulate at least some long term positions and hold tight.

    Patience always rewards..

    1. Robert

      MegaMan, I think GDX 23 is the lowest and even that is a stretch. I changed my buying target to 24 now from 24.5. 24.5 could easily happen in 1 day and since today is the start of the reversaL surely 24.5 could get taken out.

      Check this out:

      The last decline in Gdx started from a high 24.25 to a low of 22.78. Roughly 6%

      So if we take the high of this rally at 25.71, a 6% decline equals 24.15. And since this reversal looks stronger with bigger volume then GDX 24 and lower should be doable!

    1. WallStreetJesus

      I see that someone dumped a big sell order in gold at 3:54pm.

      Maybe we will get some follow thru tonight to the downside.

      Been waiting for the pullback all week.

    1. Hamish

      Robert, I like your posts but you are moving your buy target down as gold is moving down. You’ve already done it twice now in the space of a couple of hours.

      Sounds like you are one of those who Gary describes as waiting for the dip but not buying it. No offence intended of course, just hoping that you dont miss anything here.

      I sold at 1220 after buying near the bottom after Gary. I’m already buying back in small since the big drop earlier today but will accelerate by buys when the GDX RSI5 gets into the red.

      1. Robert

        Hamish. I did so because of the strength of the drop in gold miners today and since today is just day 1 of the reversal. It just makes sense that GDX will go lower than 24.5. It hit 24.67 afterhours!

  56. WallStreetJesus

    So this is the tricky part. Are we getting a pullback or is this the end of the rally and gold is headed to sub 1,000???

    Does anyone have the feeling the dollar is going to get a lot stronger than many expect?

  57. Option Trader

    The general stock market is showing a lot of divergence. The quarterly earning reports this quarter are not that great and low volume on this rally is definitely a red flag.

    Best position for the next week or two is nothing but set some goals. Either wait for a reversal candle on the long term charts (on the general markets) or we wait for metals to accelerate downward.

    By setting goals I mean determine now what you want to buy and what price you want to pay for it. If you reach that goal, go for it. But not having any goals, your opportunity to buy may pass you by.

  58. Goild

    Option trader

    This is sound advice. Thank you!

    “By setting goals I mean determine now what you want to buy and what price you want to pay for it. If you reach that goal, go for it. But not having any goals, your opportunity to buy may pass you by.”

  59. Strike

    Here is Gary’s entry on this thread regarding $USD RSI5 (it touched overbought today):

    Gary Post author
    February 7, 2017 at 2:20 pm
    The dollar shouldn’t rally for more than 4-8 days.

    Once the 5 day RSI touches overbought it should head back down almost immediately.

  60. ras

    Right. It is only day one. I would give it a few more days. Other indicators also need to chime in. Price is never in a rush. It takes its own sweet time to do its dance. Many eyeballs keeping gld under watch.

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