Just like I predicted many many people are getting schooled. In a bull market all long trades will ultimately get rescued no matter how badly timed the entry.
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So I guess this means you changed your mind now about gold dipping lower to cycle low. I thought so after today.
The metals will have a dip at some point. But like I keep stressing, don’t be afraid to buy the dip.
Before this intermediate cycle is over gold will go above $1300 and silver above $20.
Miners will test, and maybe make new 52 week highs.
Folks you have to quit listening to the nitwits predicting gold is going below $1000. This is just not how markets work. The bigger the bear market the bigger the bull market will be that follows. The bear market, especially in mining stocks, was one of the most destructive in history.
It’s going to generate one of, if not the largest bull market any of us will ever see before it’s over.
Gary.. excuse me.
you have stated we get a DIP here.
you are back filling imo.
your timing has not been correct.at
some point we will dip…… duhh.
I said don’t be afraid to buy the dip.
I never said sell. One always has to have a position during an intermediate rally in a bull market. It doesn’t have to be leveraged, but you have to have a position.
this rise is nothing compared to what’s going to happen from March through at least June for gold.
I’ve said this before …. way too much cuteness and trading going on in this stuff by people over the past 6 months.
JNUG up 22% today. You can’t capture that if you are out, and if you are trading it. It cannot be forecasted.
The moron who runs Slope of Hope, has been lambasting metals, and especially miners. A lot of people have.
Right now, you have gold rising and interest rates rising, which is a recipe for a disaster in stocks and bonds both. Stocks have not yet been affected, but when they start getting the snot kicked out of them, and they will, you will see fireworks in gold unlike we have seen before. Nothing since the year 1999, comes close to showing what will happen in gold when this stock market and bond market comes completely unglued. The recipe is there for this to happen, and the complacency in the markets is way higher than anyone has ever seen, because its all been masked by 8 years of Fed proppage with the world’s largest put placed under the markets. So all sentiment indicators lost their ability to show any real complacency, because as far as everyone in the markets right now is concern, they actually believe there is no risk. Everyone is totally afraid to short the markets. By mid year, you all will start to realize what I’m talking about.
Gary, correct me if I am wrong, but didn’t you advise selling June GDX 24 options in your portfolios just the other week? There was plenty of time left to hold before decay sets in to hold them. It is not going well with the pitch of this post. Just to be fair – you were making jerky moves and selling. I have to say that you are not being terribly polite to people on the blog via your comments along the lines of you morons never make money….maybe if you are a little more elegant in your posts people will sign up again for new higher priced sub offer.
Right.
the guy who runs slope of hope is a weirdo-
Gary, I understand buy the dip. But when do you sell? Where does one find the RSI if you want to sell at over bought. I’m trying to increase my number of shares. Thanks really love your blog.
Yep, Yep and Yep. THANKS!
Congrats to everyone who made money today. If no decent dip comes soon, guess I will just have to miss this bull run to 1300 gold. I just cannot buy here. Gdx needs to get back in 23’s to be worth it. Any other asset class looking good for a swing?
You don’t always have to be leveraged but you should never be out during an intermediate run. At the very least you should hold a position in GDX and GDXJ for the entire duration of the intermediate cycle and convert to leverage when you get pullbacks.
I can’t tell you how many people make this mistake over and over during every intermediate rally no matter what asset.
They worry more about trying to time perfect entries than focusing on the big picture.
Big picture: gold over 1300 and silver over 20. Miners will test the summer highs and maybe make new ones. There is still lots of profit between here and there even if you don’t time perfect entries.
Noted but I’m just gonna continue waiting for a pullback. I want to buy leverage
that’s what I said yesterday on this blog ! lol
Right.
Gary, to be fair, you did say you were personally waiting for the DCL before buying on your paid site. Hopefully people followed the MP and not your personal reflections. 🙂
Can you explain leveraged and how it works and timing? Thanks
Cotton is looking good, then there is DRYs and the over all the stock market looks wobbly so a possible short play, lots of collapse talk in the air, not 2008 noise but there are whispers.
That should excite Mac ….
How much money must you people lose trying to short the rigged stock market before you quit?
Don’t know.
i thought only china rig their market. they dont do that in US
Gary, have you thought about writing in a foreign language? Then people might get it through their head.
Worth considering.
Gary, last week you made a couple of posts where you suggested gold may `pop`to 1240 and that might be followed by a more sustained correction. Are you still thinking that is how things will unfold.
Hard to say at this point. Even if it does I doubt gold will go back below 1200.
So no pullback now. Chase it higher. Got it.
Yeah, it must feel good to be able to forget what you predicted a week ago and simply say, “yep, just as I predicted!” I couldn’t be bothered to look back, but I thought you went so far as to say “out in cash with 124% gain, wait for the DCL, no?”
10years yield down>>>>>>gold up
Even though officially we have been told that they are not coupled anymore!😆
Not even close. Bonds are way off their recent highs, but gold is making new highs.
I told you weeks ago that the correlation between gold and bonds was just a coincidence.
Correlations are not written in concrete. Like everything else, they could change anytime. Change is the only reality, sometimes slow, sometimes quick.
Gary that is not the point. You have many a time said that bonds will collapse while the gold price will rise substantially.
That WILL NOT happen. If and when bond collapse, in dollar terms gold will fall substantially. In fact it is even more closely linked. You can observe it even on daily basis most of the time as I have consistently pointed out here.
Just take a look at the HUI we are well above the 50 ma RSI, MACD, STO moving upwards with plenty of room to run . In my opinion many are gonna be left behind playing the day trade…..
They always are…
Human nature never changes. It’s why most people never make a dime off a bull market.
Like I told Robert you are never out during an intermediate rally in a bull market.
You can be unleveraged, but never out.
This is how so many missed the baby bull rally. They couldn’t bring themselves to buy overbought levels. The bull just stayed overbought for weeks.
The strategy is to always have a position at least unleveraged, then convert to leverage during pullbacks.
So right.
So right. Monthly chart of usd tells the real story.
Stanley Druckenmiller is now long gold. He bought back his gold position. He is one smart cookie.😎
Good for him.
Gary — as of yesterday, you indicated you had converted to unleveraged positions in miner ETFs. So I assume you rode today’s rally in those unleveraged positions and will convert back to leveraged positions on a pullback. Is that still the plan?
Here is my update from today on Gold’s move out of its YCL in late December. Includes my Dec 29th post where I nailed Gold’s YCL on the head, along with my current thoughts.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=394416
Surf, do you think we will get a decent pullback here soon into a cycle low or is this a new daily cycle? I f it is a new daily cycle then it would more likely run up another 2 weeks and so no pullback.
We may not get a chance. I am loaded up but sold some stock positions late last week to free up some cash. The USD has likely found a short term TCL / DCL and a bounce up towards 101 say should give some room for a buying opportunity.
Look – even Stanley Druckenmillar is a moron when it comes to gold…
“Stanley Druckenmiller, who now manages his own $4.7 billion fortune, just bought back his entire gold position after selling it on the night of Trump’s victory as President of the United States.”
The dumbass overthinks it just like everyone else….
“He (Druckenmiller) said he was long gold and short stocks going into the election as he thought Hillary would win and we would get higher taxes and more regulation which he viewed as negative. When it became clear that evening that Trump was going to win and gold was up big and equities were down big, he sold his gold and got long stocks. It didn’t make sense to him that gold was up big and equities were down as he thought Trump would be in favor of lowering the corporate tax rate and paring back regulations, which he viewed as positive for equities. He said he has been able to do a fairly good job of not getting emotional when it comes to investing and joked that his friend George Soros may have not been able to do the same thing over election night. I also thought it was interesting that he said since selling his gold he has bought it back. He didn’t make any comments as to the size, but said it was an interesting story and unfortunately he didn’t have the time to go into it. It was a real treat to get to hear him share his thoughts at his speaking engagement at Purdue University. (says the groupie moron who witnessed him speak)”
Like the rest of us, he is only human. Anyway, he is back in when price is beginning to accelerate. Evidently, big money is moving into pms. It is reflected in the way price moves.
he owns 4.7 billion.. I don’t think he’s a “dumbass” ha ha
Druckenmiller…….well I guess he is a drunk who drinks Miller and he needs Gary to manage his gold investments or at the very least come over to the Smart Money Blogger and join us.
Ok, the open interest analysis expected some fireworks and now we have it. Gary said the easy trading/money was over, o’boy he was wrong. This is a classic third wave in elliott wave terms, so the Bear may be over !
We have to wait and so for further developments. Yes I missed to get back in JNUG, but I am all in miners.
I’ve got a freeride position in JNUG thats less than 3% of my portfolio, I was thinking to get back in with at least 6-7%. I think the dips is going to be very shallow from now on. Remember the 2-8Feb timeline for buy it will soon be over so I guess you just have to jump in or you would risk to miss the rally.
Yea, shallow dips. We can only take what the market is willing to give.
Come on Gary, you’ve thrown us a curved ball here, or for non Americans and members of the Commonwealth, you’ve bowled us a Googly. I don’t think you made clear at the start the difference between the way you play leveraged and unleveraged funds. Your buy the dip strategy only relates to leverage funds, otherwise you should just be holding and riding the bull? Wish you’d made this clearer right from the start.
I did make it clear.
If you want up to the minute updates you need to get a subscription. This is a free blog after all.
I’m not going to trade for you on the blog.
Fair enough, so we can’t take anything at face value that you publish on the free blog. Things like this are just nonsense then:
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2017/01/half-cycle-low.html#comments
Thanks for letting me know where we stand.
You absolutely are not going to get real time trades on this free blog.
I’ll probably be doing fewer and fewer posts as the bull progresses. I’ve given out more than enough free info.
No problem Gary. Thanks for the reply. I’ve done well, but I should just of taken your advice and gone Old Turkey and turned the computer off. But, as you say, it’s easier said than done. Good luck.
Bv-
What you should have done was pay the $200. Best money I ever spent.
Just sayin’….
Bulls overexuberant as usual.
Shorting another tranche of spot gold now at 1235 (currently at a 150 pip loss). Still holding on to my short eurusd (currently at a 100 pip profit) and entering another tranche long of usdjpy at 111.85 (currently at a 100 pip loss).
Usd still due for a bounce.
Hopefully metals will be up tomorrow, flat going into overnight.
Otherwise, the late chase with SLV calls will be a bust.
So far it is down
Geez you day traders will never learn.
Like I keep saying, most people will never make a a dime off a bull market.
Quit worrying about dips. If they occur buy, or buy more. Otherwise just hang on for the ride. Trying to trade in and out of an intermediate advance is a sure fire way to underperform or lose money.
Nothing to do with daytrading Gary, options are time sensitive, I’m pretty sure you know that.
Good morning
Today is a new day, a fresh day, we will see how we make money today.
Good trading to all.
It looks like today we may have an opportunity to get in at a good price.
USD is +0.73% and today there is no divergence with usd/yen which is +0.61%.
Yesterday’s after 2:00 PM NUGT overdid and this morning has leveled.
Where’s Pedestrian? XD
I think he’s all posted out, or he’s lost so much money shorting gold that he’s too embarrassed to tell us.😎
None of the above TraderPete. All good on my end. I am still working with my correlation model but there have been hiccups. I am really in a struggle with the timing but there is no substantive change in my outlook with the exception it is not coming together as quickly as I imagined.
So I had nothing new to add. Why blog is it just muddies the waters?
Ped, must be in deep meditation. He has inner work to do. He is in retreat, I think.
USD wants to go up and so the expected dip might be at the front door.
Heres the dollar daily lloks pretty bullish for the bounce,
https://invst.ly/37z2g
gold now at overbought levels
https://invst.ly/37z3d
If that is the case and we get the retrace here Gary was spot on. Saying gold would top at $1240 then retrace for the half cycle low. Credit where credit is due…..
Dday,
Good morning. Thanks for the daily charts.
Price movement. Sharp up, frustrating sideways, then a breakout. Continued up with shallow pull backs for a while?
+
+
– – ——–
+
+
+
+
“…(Kitco News) – Gold managed to touch our suggested intra-day target of $1,237 yesterday, but comments from Philadelphia Fed President. Patrick Harker, that a March rate hike was on the table, coupled with ECB President Mario Draghi’s comment, that the winding down of the bond buying program was premature, slammed the dollar and gold sellers re-emerged. Equity markets in the U.S. this morning are also indicating a higher open — enough cause for traders to lighten up and take profits in gold. Consolidation is not necessarily a bad thing, but gold needs to hold the $1,220 area to retain a short-term bullish bias. The upside is contained at $1,237 and unlikely to be taken out today. Current pressure is weighted to the downside given dollar and equity strength”….Peter Hug
The most rational unbiased reflection of gold i could find…..
Excellent find DDay, I concur. Look out below.
Gold predicts outlook on gold and miners https://goldpredict.com/?p=6827
USD broke of the downtrend line last night and now a bullish engulfing on the daily so far. I think gold will start a cycle up move now, so hopefully gold will sell off for the rest of the week. USD should top out in the 101s maybe 101.5 – 102.0 so we still might get a buying opportunity in miners.
Sorry *USD* will start a cycle up move
Looks like more of a dead-cat bounce Rob. The buying pressure in gold is pretty strong now.. but who knows?
Yes it would be a dead cat bounce in USD so hopefully gold has some more downside so for thos of us like me who missed out on this rally we can buy GDX little cheaper. Hopefully!
Weekly in strong uptrend. Brief shallow dips are possible.
Look at that SLV hold its own baby!
Bam.
A pullback would be nice though… many of us are trying to add here.
Sometimes I wonder why waste time with gold. Just look at AMD and Nvidia. Damn
Watch TWTR
Much better risk reward and looks ready to go
Just shallow dips.
Hey OT – you just wrote, “A pullback would be nice though… many of us are trying to add here.”
When Robert and I implied the exact same thing yesterday, you dissed us for not being long and strong enough yet. Hmmm
Hey, if you have long positions on your portfolio for the long term, all to you.
I was just referring to those that are trying to day trade the metals run.
could jnug go down to 8 on this pullback? what are some targets to get long?
SIL now in the green
And as we see shorts getting creamed
GDX trying to go green here
Gary I Looked at JNUG and JDST over the past several years, and noticed that BOTH have gone down. JDST was down even before the baby bull rally. CLearly the 3x decay hit JDST hard.
Have you done any calculations to see how likely it is that decay eats up JNUG?
The more I look at TWTR’s long term charts, the more I like.
I’ll be watching TWTR this week and next week, looking for a confirmation.
PMs not caring one bit about USD today.
That is a good sign 🙂
The metals will be set up to surge big once the dollar starts back down.
Sounds logical.
dips being bought aggressively. Money keeps pouring into pm sector.
Putting technicals aside, what is the market sniffing out fundamentally/ geopolitically, etc?
Big inflation, trade wars/renegotiation of trade pacts/Upcoming votes in Netherlands and France to leave the EU (like GB), Debt saturation worldwide, no rate hikes by the FED, more unlimited money printing by the FED and CBs, a China Gold surprise announcement.
In other words, a financial system that the FED and their CB cronies have destroyed that is careening in the 9th inning of the ballgame. Can they keep papering this financial edifice over for more years without destroying the system. It’s so rotten to the core.
There was never any reason for gold to drop on election night to begin with. The only reason it did was the intervention in the stock market stretched the currency cycles, which in turn stretched the gold cycle.
The markets are now resuming their natural path.
This is why so many people keep getting these things wrong. They continue to believe in free markets, and we just simply don’t have them anymore. Free markets ended when the SEC banned short selling in financials, and when QE1 began.
Of course there were reasons and it had nothing to do with interventions or manipulation. It was all about positioning based on changing expectations. I assure you that professional traders were at their desks or rushing back to them as the results came rolling in.
I haven’t seen much evidence of manipulation in the metals for months. The banks got busted and are paying multimillion dollar fines.
There is massive manipulation in the stock market though. Central banks discovered they could control the business cycle by propping up the stock market.
The intervention to prevent the market from opening limit down the day after the elections also affected the currency markets causing the dollar and euro cycles to stretch to ridiculous lengths. This also stretched the gold cycle.
I would love a dip in GDXJ here, are we not entering a zone of resistance? Back down to close the gap in JNUG at 9.30ish.
165% leveraged Long, but you bought only yesterday AFTER the gap open. That’s a weak hand. This will end like all the other times. Key is to buy before it gets so overbought.
Today marks the top. Profit taking to happen on miners. USD should make it to 101.5 so still waiting for the dip to buy GDX. GDX should wipe out all of ydays gains soon. I might start buying at GDX 24.5 and then every 50 cents lower (24, 23.5, 23)
I would wait for the miners to lead the metals down, before making that call..
Ok buddy I am counting on your analysis. I am going to move the big money in and buy where you indicated. You are right it does look like the top.
If you are wrong we will suffer together along with others.
In the land of the blind the one eyed man is king!!
Please dont blame me if we lose Wall St! Its just my observation not investment advice and I could definitely be wrong!
Hey I won’t blame you!! This is just a guessing game. I have suffered a big drawdown before so that’s nothing new.
I do think you are right and we are going to get a pullback soon. I thought it would have started a couple days ago but I am always early.
Time will tell.
Inviolable rule for all successful traders: no set up, no trade. Just sit on your hands.
Agree Ras. Great comment.
S&P is failing to make a new high. If it doesn’t do so by the close. that will be very bearish. I am betting that it won’t.
Price needs to break below ma 20. Fading momentum alone is not enough.
Haha there is probably big money to be made on the downside in the stock market but I am not sure it will happen in our lifetime thanks to the central banks.
Not sure why Gary thinks there must be a dip in the PMs at these levels. None are stretched to far above their 200 day moving averages. As far as the cycle length is concerned, I have yet to see where they have worked out reliably.
I am expecting a Half Cycle Low based on the USD bouncing out of a short term DCL. The USD has been very weak of late but a close above the 10ema is the first step to confirming a new Trading of Daily cycle.
I have the USD on day 3 right now and am looking for another 3-5 days of a bounce here.
Yes Surf agree. Based on analysis USD could bounce to 101.5
Cycles by themselves are not reliable. Recently, some analysts mistook DCL as HCL. We need confirmation from other tools. If one is running an SM letter, an analyst needs to lay out his take on cycles. If it pans out, he gets the bragging rights. Otherwise, blame goes to market manipulation.That is the way it works.
Ras, well put.
I think that Cycles can be very useful but different analysts make different interpretations of the same chart. Regarding Gold, the DCL on Jan 27th had everything I was looking for: 1) In my Timing Band at 28 days, 2) Trend line broken ~ Yes, 3) Fib retrace of just over 38.2% ~ Check
Hard not to call that one a DCL…
https://surfcity.co/2017/01/31/gold-update/
Hi, surf. Thanks for the clarification. The point i was trying to make is that cycles are subject to interpretation like all other indicators. Actually, price pulled back to rising 20 day ma with stochs at buy level, which is a text book buy signal. You have reached the same conclusion using cycles.
So far the metals are being supported and not breaking the 24 hour trend lines
We might see some sort of head and shoulders on miners this week. GDX undercut 25 slightly back up to maybe 25.3 and then the decline starts. I still expect all of yesterdays gains to be wiped out. Gap at 24.5 to be filled but not sure if much lower than that.
Throw ur charts out, Trump ‘ s irrational behaviour, now the fake news media has under reported terrorism, where does this guy dream this stuff up, with this guy in charge everyone is going gold, how can you not? Buy gold is the long term strategy, nothingbwill get better with Trump in charge, the world knows it, hence gold will go ballistic very soon. If the San Fransico court of appeal rules against Trump tonight, watch gold fly tomorrow, just saying, ok guys back to ur charts that for some reason just arent working out for u gold haters.
He’s crazy like a fox, now get back to your protest.
Dang, if Trump is crazy like a fox, i got land for u in Florida to buy! Trump has no clothes on but u refuse to see it. Dang, are people dumb!
You mean like the people who elect this lady over and over? I will stick my faith in Trump voters over voters for Pelosi, Feinstein, Franken and this idiot.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-07/maxine-waters-does-it-again-slams-trump-supporting-korea-invading-putin
Macman, might be better for you to stick to the subject of the board and keep away from Trump bashing. Your bias is showing and red doesn’t look good on you.
hes not bashing.
Moriarty has a v good commentary on PAP…. w Maurice Jackson
321Gold. yesterday. Soros , media dividing & conquering.
Both parties are dismal. The democrats lost.
For good reason.
Nice try. Prior admin doubling debt to 20T had nothing to do with it right? Turn off the lying, dying “media” and think for yourself.
hello..??
can u read………..?
Have to tell you gary that when even you where getting bearish a bit over a week ago, I told you I was gonna think about if I chould see this as a buying signal. well I bought some (extra) NUGT the next day and I must say, I´m not regretting 😉
Cheers Gary!
Selloff underway. Gold double top. Calling it now GDX 24.6 and lower coming. USD backtested the breakout and now holding so USD should start to rally to 101.5. Lets hope there is a flush out of the late gold buyers so we can get in cheaper!
That call and that close left you guessing wrong Robert….
In a strong up trend, it is not productive to outguess price. We had a BO after a fairly long sideways move. Once BO occurs, price seldom moves into trading range.
There be a good buying opportunity coming. If you want gold to go lower you can always buy just a little. Once you are in the trade the price should drop. That ever happen to you – as soon as you buy something the price drops. If it doesn’t drop and keeps going up then you still win.
How about a deeper sell off… if dollar is rallying… could it rally for a few weeks…
I would love that but look what happened last time. I will try to buy earlier because we may not get any deep pullback. I am watching USD. When that hits around 101s I will start buying miners and keep buying if it goes lower. If it goes down deeper so be it but I am trying not to get left out again
The dollar shouldn’t rally for more than 4-8 days.
Once the 5 day RSI touches overbought it should head back down almost immediately.
Profit taking in the miners.
Not much of a dip.
They might surprise you and gap down miners overnight. Lets see. Few more days of selling to come maybe by Friday its over
Robert – you are right, gold about to drop and catch a lot of bulls off guard.
I still think the best play right now is to short the stock market. A crashing market is just what the Trump haters would love to see.
Eventually, it could happen. Right now, there is no set up. No set up, no trade.
What ever happened to “scorch” Alex? There was no need to leave us just because he got it wrong a few (dozen) times.
I wondered the same thing about the “scorch”. I enjoyed reading his posts and calling every market turn.
I wonder if he blew up his account?
Strong NUGT close…You got your dip hope you bought it.
Brief intra day $0.50 dip in nugt. That was the opp. for folks who wanted to get in. With a strong weekly UT, the market manufactures what is needed in cognate areas to support that trend. Indicators behave differently in impulsive and reactive modes.
On a different topic it looks like oil has started moving down into its YCL. They have been coming in the spring the last several years.
Should be a good buying opportunity in the energy sector once the weekly stochastics reach oversold.
drip perking up.
I would say by the time gold miners top out on this intermediate cycle maybe it will time nicely with the oil bottom. Rotate funds from gold to oil
Looks like the bears went into hibernation..?
They will soon wake up – won’t be long now.
Gary, what is your take on Yen from cycles stand point? thanks in advance
It could still make it to the 38% fib before the current daily cycle tops.
The gains off a $100 gold move have been substantial for miners. I can only imagine if we get north of 1400 and mix in some market volatility to get big money rolling into them where we may go.
terrywg
“Bulls overexuberant as usual…
Shorting another tranche of spot gold now at 1235”
I concur on your first point.
But looks like a nice triangle, with divergences shaping up in gold for another pop. That is on my chart one degree lower than the daily cycle, BTW.
I am still wondering when gold will challenge its 200 day SMA.
At any rate, might I constructively point out you seem to have an itchy trigger finger?
Make not haste, kind sir.
If you’ve read my previous comment, as well as my thoughts over the past couple of weeks, you know I’m looking at a potential double zig zag for the yearly cycle rise, with the first ICH nearing completion in a 2nd DC rise. As you suggest, the bulls are ebullient, but shorting moves will require greater precision. After all, even the IC decline will likely be going against the YC rise.
There is an area of the Atlantic Ocean south of Bermuda called the Sargasso Sea, popularly called “Horse Latitudes”, commemorated by a poem that’s prelude to that famous song by The Doors that established the artistic bond between Morrison & Manzarak on Venice Beach in the mid-1960’s. It lies east of the notable Gulf Stream, and, unlike the rather swift warm current, the Sargasso Sea is characterized by relatively little movement of the air and sea. Heavy Spanish Galleons, the likes of which got whamboozled in 1588, found themselves tossing much of their cargo overboard, including such valued items as transportation engines — horses — in order to cross the wide ocean & reach land before running out of food.
People are in the mood for fireworks in gold, but I’m not so sure they are on tap any time soon.
@zkotpen
Ty for the advice, it is much appreciated.
I do have a tendency to be a little early, but I usually scale into my positions in 3-4 tranches, so timing is less of a concern for me. Unlike what Gary thinks, I am not a day-trader: I trade on a time-horizon of several weeks. In any case, the PMs and BMs only form about 15percent of my total portfolio. I also don’t trade gold miners nor ETFs but instead trade spot gold. Because of the volatility in the price of spot I can at any given time be taking massive losses on new positions. However, I got into gold when it was 1090 last year, so half my portfolio in metals are priced very very cheaply.
2016 was a really good year for me (you can read my outlook and investment thesis that I wrote in january last year: https://medium.com/@kcl/whither-2016-4a309c3c1b64#.qdc8nvexc). I will be writing another forecast for FY2017 soon so if you are interested I will link you once it is done.
How much of a pop do you see happening in gold in the near-term? Based on my charts I do not see it going past 1260 anytime soon. That is why it makes sense for me to start scaling into my positions at this point in time
Also, I love taking a contrarian trade and have found it to work for my investing style over the past 8 years in currencies and metals. When I see the message boards fill up with bullish/bearish sentiment that is usually one of many warning bells that put me on notice. You might say that this is non-empirical in nature but it has proven to be a very good indicator for sentiment!
Short term sentiment is neutral on the metals right now. GLD, GDX & GDXJ are all at 60% bulls.
The next technical resistance would be between 1243 and the 50% fib at 1251.
Gary
“There was never any reason for gold to drop on election night to begin with.”
There most certainly was. It’s called the Yearly Cycle Decline, which I was forecasting to continue within a week of observing gold’s & GDX’s behavior at their respective 200 day SMA’s. The real surprise was that huge spike, which made the Intermediate Cycle extra-left translated, portending more downside, not recovery. Of course, GDX’s failure to make a new high the following morning was telling.
Gimme some public credit — I called the whole move down right here on the blog, since September.
now listening to “Strange Days” album.
My cousin turned me on to The Doors in the summer of 1981, and that changed my life forever. That’s the summer when I quit watching TV, age 13.
I listened to The Doors all the time thru high school, when they were Absolutely NOT Live.
I don’t think I had a single friend who shared that listening experience with me.
No worries…
Track 5…
When the still sea conspires an armor
And her sullen and aborted
Currents breed tiny monsters
True sailing is dead
Awkward instant
And the first animal is jettisoned
Legs furiously pumping
Their stiff green gallop
And heads bob up
Poise
Delicate
Pause
Consent
In mute nostril agony
Carefully refined
And sealed over…
Once again the rush to short a rising market is a common day traders mistake and a fine example of how they NEVER ! EVER! make real money, to busy chasing the scalp…
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/nugt
Gary says it daily and I myself figured this out as well many years ago….
Didn’t you hold NUGT while it fell from 30+ to 5?
I guess you clowns never heard of covering before.Besides I added several thousand shares as well so the loses have been absorbed weeks ago….Traders huh? I have my doubts.
$30? more like $12 don’t know where toy came up with that $30 number you must be talking with MAC to much…
Very, very wrong bill.
While I don’t consider myself a day-trader, I think you are generalising here.
And while the bulls on this comment board were holding through a terrible drawdown from August to Jan, a lot of us were making bank. Why? Because we don’t have a directional bias and we love it when there is volatility.
You guys have terrible short-term memory. Keep on picking bottoms and eventually you will get it right. I subscribe to Gary’s paid service so at least I know his exit/entry… you on the other hand I’m not so sure.
LOL you have no idea what you are talking about. We didn’t hold from August to Jan. We exited at almost the exact top. We got in a little too early after the first leg down and got caught when gold generated a failed cycle. But we exited during the bounce once gold moved back below 1275. Then we reentered very close to the bottom of the YCL and have been riding this ever since.
None of this day trading nonsense for us.
The end result is we are already well above the highs from August. By the close today the leveraged portfolio should be +170% -+180%.
I also checked and your email is not in the subscriber files so you aren’t a member and would have no idea when the real time calls were issued.
I said it dozens of times but no one ever paid any attention. In a bull market all timing mistakes get corrected.
Like I said most people never make a dime off a bull market.
Stop being so defensive Gary. It’s unbecoming. I am subscribed under the handle riskybisket.
I was addressing the under commenters on the comment board. Read my words more carefully next time. I already pointed out that YOU can verify your entry/exit.
Gary – I think you need to go a little farther in your statement. Not only do most people not make a dime off a bull market. Most people LOSE money off a bull market. Those are the facts.
Do you wear makeup with that clown suit? Another reason to NOT follow the logic of some on this forum .
The present event with Trump and Iran, France is one thing for GOLD but knowing the following puts another spin on the winds that will be chasing and escalating with events in China .
Previously China was mentioned and in many other articles I have read confirming the proof of hidden and disguised figure from them but: China’s Demand for Gold Can’t be Met…very encouraging to know that they already pay a 25% premium on price of gold and demand is escalating with considering a population nearly a 1/4 of the world.
https://dailyreckoning.com/chinas-demand-for-gold/
Then: The Swiss Federal Customs Administration said in January that its gold bullion exports to China rose to 158 tonnes (WOW) in December from 30.6 tonnes in November, according to GoldSeek.com, a website for gold investors.
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2068101/china-stocked-swiss-gold-turbulent-year-came-close.
Gold is really entering unprecedented times from now and previous statements of Gary that might not fall in any technical preview (unless you recognise the long-term bull correction we came out of) but the winds of change and all other events present, financial awaited crises..we are going to see the bull to no equivalent of time with $5000 might really not seem as a laugh but a huge probability. The factors are just stacking up as never seen before.
Sad for the world but great for PM! Great trading all!!
In any case, it feels as if I am no longer welcome here. I will take my leave.
Ped, zkotpen and others on the board, if you’d like to get in touch my email is [email protected]. I would love to remain in contact but sadly I do not think I will be posting here any longer.
terry,
Hopefully you come back. The insights of all are valuable.
Many take a lot of heat here.
I’m starting to wonder if the euro is forming a HCL and it still has one more pop higher (possibly along with the yen) before the real DCL.
That would mean the dollar formed a fakeout DCL. The bounce so far has been very weak.
What happened to the shortage of dollars we were hearing about a couple of weeks ago?
sniffing recession & lower rates??
Good morning.
It appears that USD is decreasing its influence on Gold.
Good trading to all.
Well it looks like it might take 1250 before any pullback on gold. Guess will just have to continue waiting zzzzzz
I can’t believe another up day for the metals.
Haha – Its better to be out wishing you were in, than in wishing you were out.
So as you guys know, I’ve been watching Silver over the last few weeks. Not much else to say here about it, I’m just staying in my SLV Calls.
But, as I indicated yesterday, I’ve been watching TWTR carefully. I’m getting nice set ups for TWTR on the longer term charts but waiting for a confirmation next week.
In addition to what I’m seeing develop on the TWTR charts, guess who’s the big shot on Twitter these days? Guess how many people have been following him and joining?
YIKES!! – I thought we would get a pullback this week. That’s the problem in a bull market. Then there is the fear of missing out FOMO. Hummm – Is it too late to buy…..
One thing im noticing is that gold making a strong move while GDX is not performing as strong so far
We could be in the midst of a big bond rally which is why the metals continue to be strong. Perhaps there will be no pullback. I think bonds could rally for awhile.
$16 here we come
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/7/7z8BOM5p.png
Quite likely.
You’re probably right.
It wasn’t all that long ago it was $6.
I would hate to own DUST right now.
Pull back this week? Unlikely. Pull up a weekly chart and look at the white candles, with 2 more days to go in the week. Price comfortably above weekly mid BB.
Whooooooo Doggy.
SLV is getting close to its 200 DMA
GLD is getting close to its 200 WMA
I may consider going down to 50% of my calls when we wrestle with these areas.
If today is not the top its very close. Major resistance levels here for GDX and Gold. Ill be surprised if they just get taken out today. Profit taking has to occur soon this is just pure greed
I agree Robert. We are seeing an overshoot in price right now. But we can pretty safely ignore the intraday and overnight numbers if gold closes lower. It is all that really matters to the chart pattern at the end of the day. Tomorrow, the daily chart will read according to its prior close, not the spike we see now. Same goes for weekly. That’s what suckers bulls again and again. Gold can rise right into the end of the week but what matters to the chart is where price sits at 5pm EST for spot and if you are not aware of that you can make the wrong decision about whether to be long or short for the coming week.
A number of Fed speakers and Yellen next week. Im pretty sure they will put a lid on gold. Plus since this gold rally started there has not been any sort of cycle low. My target for GDX is still 24.5. How low you think GDX can go Ped?
Not sure Robert. Right now I watching to see if gold puts in another number below 1233.75 which is yesterdays ending spot and that would generate a daily bearish reversal. That’s a drop of 9 dollars and change from where we are now and certainly within a normal days movements. Fridays close is high on my radar as well because its going to tell us if this current up-move will stick longer or if its cooked and done like Roast Turkey. We already posted a numbers both above and below yesterdays close so technically our reversal is here. I am just curious to see if we retest the nights low point a second time.
Many folks seem to spend lots of time on forex movements. Of course, these movements do influence commodity prices. The modalities of this influence are very complex and can be appreciated fully only in hindsight. Since these influences are implicitly factored into pm price movements, a balanced approach would be to watch price action of select group of pm stocks and etfs with a peripheral look at forex movements. This can be a great time saver. Just one view point.
Hey MAC this one is for you lol
https://twitter.com/MONETARY_MAYHEM/status/828384493320945664
Bill, so true, thats it Trump has loaded up on Jnug and is throwing the presidency to make a killing in gold, what a sly fox, right Dang.
The Bollinger bands are now close enough to the 200 MA’s to be cautious here.
Sometimes candlesticks to reverse before even touching the MA
I’m long term bullish but time to watch today’s daily close for a reversal candle.
Gary. You mentioned that sentiment in gold is neutral. What
percent would turn sentiment bullish. RSI on GDXJ is over 70.
Is it probably a good idea to wait for sentiment to get a lot higher
before thinking about moving to the sidelines in GDXJ especially
With an RSI over 70. Thanks again for your charts & videos.
RSI has nothing to do with sentiment.
Intermediate sentiment should rise to at least 75% bulls before the intermediate cycle tops. It has been as high as 89% bulls during the last bull market. Right now it’s at 49%.
I think we may see a slowing of the rise in PMs or at least a sideways consolidation for a few weeks. Anyone buying DUST is going to have a rough go of it. The stock market is where my focus is now. A big sell off is coming and I am ready or it.
Haha Don you are the man. I would love to see a big sell off in the stock market. It is certainly is well deserved. I wonder if it will happen because for what ever reason the powers to be want to keep the stock market propped up.
The correlations suggest that February is probably the month for a correction of some kind. I have expended more brain cells than I actually own (yes, I get them on credit) trying to figure out where and when the reversal will arrive and all I can say at this point is that we will be set-up for it once the 30 year bond and gold bottom but when that happens is not quite certain. As I said before, gold and bonds cannot enjoy a sustained rally off their eventual bottoms unless equity markets also turn down. I think we will see both those things happen.
Anyone follow lumber?
What a move!!
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=LB
Gold bull sentiment 58%
Druckenmiller back in gold.
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/2017/02/08/druckenmiller-bought-gold-after-reversing-november-stance/
Watch miners here. we are very close now to a sustained pullback. USD has spiked up.
Dip buyers spoiling the Bears party
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/c/CQx6utEi.png
I did take profits on half my SLV calls today.
Still long term bullish.
Gary 4-8 days rise in the USD coincides perfectly with the FED speakers this week and Yellen next week. We should get the next buying opportunity by early next week in miners
Haha lets hope so. Silver is starting to look a little weak.
Weak you say?
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/a/ARTIYzun.png
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/z/z06mTo6a.png
So many left behind hoping praying wishing for a pull back. I know it may seem or feel like a top, but just wait you’ve seen nothing yet lol.
Bulls are getting too cocky and arrogant now. A good flush is needed to make late comers panick before next leg up. If not then we might see a repeat of last year where gold miners just keep going up with no pullback and then a 50% loss of gains later in the year
I would hardly call $117 dollar move in Gold Cocky Robert… peanuts, the baby bull move was $300+…
You see this lol
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/6/60vLfaVa.png
Large 2009 large lol
Bill – you are probably right. I think silver will see $30 in 2018.
The weak lasted about 15 minutes around lunch time. Haha I guess that was the pullback and I let it get away.
Ill consider a short when this line is breached ( arrow ) until then nothing but noise.
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/e/E11xshqn.png
The gap at GDX 24.5s will get filled. I plan to start buying there. Go ahead and hold since you think this is going up in a straight line
Ye cause after all there is no such thing as any market going up in a strait line…nope not a one.
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/w/wRzQSxT4.png
sorry Rob, Look previous bull, many gaps not filled
USD has a resistance and fib and could be H&S to drop, JPY is doing wedge at a resistance that could break trough at a fib but not great resistance. So we might have Gold doing not much of a draw back….so winds are behind and china should be back tonight….mmm.
I will get my dip to buy mark my words
Maybe but DUST will have to turn first and we are not there yet…
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/g/GnTER40k.png
Life isn’t good for anyone holding DUST.
There will be a dipp, that is forsure! we dp not get another channel as from dec-Jan
By the time you get the dip at 1310, you may as well just by now. It will still be lower to buy now than at the dip.
I hope you are right Robert. I think we will get a dip too.
I think the dip is going to be blistering as well
Dines say we in wave 2 of major bull that $3000-5000 target if 2015 low not broken https://images.angelpub.com/2017/06/42238/the-dines-letter-gold-waves.png
He is named as the original gold bug whom the term was cast
Bought some TWTR calls into the close. We’re getting some strong set ups here on TWTR.
So are we seeing the reality playing out with war ships on way to China, that said if US enter it is declaration of war. So fasten your seatbelts
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/582878/China-US-Declare-War-Donald-Trump-South-Sea-Navy-Islands-Practical-Reality-Communist-Party
Bill – what are your thoughts on the gold/silver ratio?
It has been holding steady around 70 which surprises me.
looks like smart money got out today… look for a 7-10% drop…
I exited JNUG yesterday, I could have held for more gains… but I had a busy afternoon… so it made sense at the time to just be out… I am good on 2 Swing Trades in JNUG… my goal is to lock in profit and perhaps buy again if we have a pullback… in the meantime; today I have taken a position in ERX 34.30… wait n see if a quick bump up happens 🙂
Not sure, smart or otherwise. Yesterday around 10 a.m. was not a bad sell point, before digital profits melt away. Wet noodle price action. Looks familiar: rise, sideways and pull back until forex finishes its struggling bounce. Time will tell. Not worried about missing further upside.
On this blog, there is an oft repeated categorical assertion that most traders “will not make a dime off this bull market”. Probably, in their estimate, the number of dimes in 10 k is a trivial number.
Gold will keep going up for now.
If you don’t like the horse latitudes metaphor from yesterday, then let’s just say gold is stopping to smell the roses… and gardenias, and floripondios, and every other fragrant flower… along the way.
Still not getting the divergences yet. More upside to go.
Just mosey on up to the 200 day SMA, far as I can tell, so far.
Consolidating all day long… since yesterday… GDX too.
Since you have never been right so far, I just sold one third of my holdings in gold and gold related position.
Thanks. Keep it up.
!! ~~ Funny guy or gal ~~ !!
LoL LoL lOl…
You saw gold drop half a percent, you freeeked out & sold & then write goofy nonsense about me. OMG!
Ha ha ha ha…
still laughing — THANKS!!
I needed some cheering up right about now!
Are you really that dense?
Look at the time of my posting?
What was the price of gold at that time?
Not only you are consistently wrong, you are too arrogant to admit it.
Anyhow, what has my action to do with your lousy predictions? Can you be right once for a change? Even flipping a coin will get you a tail 50% of the time.
And, you consider yourself to be smart?
Well wonder if Isreal rockets Syria will have a back up breeze on PM and draw in Iran now then how will USSR & US react since last night
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/israeli-air-force-launches-attack-syrian-army-golan-heights/
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-38891358
Premarket dips are occurring daily. Just a tease for those looking for entry. Bounce right back strongly. I think we are going to run longer here than most expect. It will pull back but by then the pullback will be higher than buying here. Easy to see why most never make a dime in a bull market. As Gary said you get a big day of gains then the chop. Pullbacks are shallow and quick as buyers rush in on any dip. The dollar continues to struggle at higher price. Rallies get sold quickly as the dollar unwinds.
Good morning
Being left out I guess must be treated as a loss: accept it and move on.
There is pain both ways while losing and while winning. There is the temptation always to sell while winning to secure gains and the uncertainty that a top has been reached.
The thing as usual is to learn from the action.
And there is no one who has it right all the time.
Good trading to all.
Traders are funny characters when they choose a winning side they let it be known to the world I’m winning but when they choose the wrong side they let the world know there is no wining for anyone lol you Can’t make this shit up lol
Cattle is in a bull market. Check out COW & MOO. Food prices
going up folks.
Lumber as well which means housing prices are going up and anything buildable As well. Snowflakes getting priced Out More and more by the day
USD/yen is higher than USD. We may have the starting of the dip today?
Dollar and gold have been moving up together. Not sure you can base much, if anything on any correlations. It appears enough money is coming in to overpower any algo trading patterns at this point.
I agree, the chances for a dip are slim. We may have a bear trap and then today as it is a Thursday, a strong day, we may break toward $1250. The prospect is to close a strong week.
Nothing goes straight up. There will always be at least some kind of shallow dip intra day resulting from trading activities of day and swing traders. That is a given.
Here’s your dip! Grab it
Everybody on this website is Bullish. Everyone in the media is bullish gold, every article etc. We will get a dip! Everyone is cocky and arrogant so you need to feel some pain for the next leg higher. Clean out the newcomers!
The media ha ha ha ha ….. yes now there is a solid measurement to follow . That . Whole .91 cents makes me want to run for the exits . Robert you do more talking down the position than anyone in this forum lol let’s try and lighten up in the hypocrisy shall we .
Bill you are gonna say that I was right. Its gonna be more than 91 cents. I told you few days ago that the whole move on Fri is gonna be wiped out. GDX will see 24.5 or lower!
Lol just breaking balls Robert all good I added 300 @ 12.43 sitting on some serious shares I’m sticking to my opX call … next week. This low was due to the consumer confidence number no doubt.
Probably closer to 21.50
I agree with you Robert. The overshoot will all be gone soon.
Perhaps today IS a good day to buy!
This move is why I don’t use stops. Trump talks about a phenomenal tax plan coming and everything moves quickly on the news. It will probably settle back in soon. Would get stopped out then the stuff bounces right back as you sit out missing the rebound.
Something also interesting. The VectorVest system suggests buying gold when the 10-day crosses the 65-day combined with their proprietary timing metric reaching 1.0 on the HUI. You can see this happening now. The cross over is complete and the metric is at 0.97. This also confirms a new uptrend:
https://scontent-atl3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/16649281_10101925815947409_8162814716092791182_n.jpg?oh=12357f2791bbe9f41ed037478f101186&oe=59049310
Looks good. Thanks for that info!
They call it the ‘midas touch. Catchy name eh?
And yet again you see why you can’t short the stock market.
People it’s a rigged system.
You can’t fight the Fed and their printing press.
I also think there is a decent chance the metals are ready to dip down into a daily cycle low now.
Of course it is! You should know better Gary the metals always tend to catch ppl off guard and makes them pay both ways
I predict the same thing will happen that always happens. Traders that claimed to be waiting to “buy the dip” will panic and not be able to pull the trigger and they will let the opportunity pass them by.
Human nature never changes.
Nobody is perfect. It is prudent to be aware of all possibilities.
I will pull the trigger. So maybe 3-5 days of selling? By early next week should be good to buy
Probable.
There was no set up anyway.
The stock market is kicking me in the teeth. On the bright side, platinum is doing well. (yes, i posted weeks ago that I was loading up on platinum and silver)
Many smart traders on this blog. Many of them can be expected to pull the trigger at the right time.
I am hoping for a spike down in gold and silver (as a buying opportunity), probably below $1200 for gold, followed by a rapid recovery.
I am not sure what to make of crude. It should be going down and isn’t. I have to wonder if energy markets are possibly anticipating the breakout of war.
One can’t short oil for the same reason you can’t short the stock market. It’s a rigged market.
Just think of all the money you would have saved already if you would only listen to me about shorts.
Watch the Canadian dollar Don. Where it goes oil often follows. I think we have a really sharp drop coming fairly soon although timing that is never easy. We should be setting up now for a decline that will start just about anytime. Possibly even tomorrow.
Right.
10 years yield up>>>>>>>>gold down
But, there is no link?
this blog is too long in the tooth Gary…..
rsi 5 is turning up but somehow i dont trust these indicators anymore… got burned before
Gold is capped here and its going to begin a period of decline. I don’t see anything on the RS!5 that would make me want to buy right here. Is that what you are referring too? It’s still in oversold territory and just beginning to fall but you will have a wait before a buy zone kicks in again.
Nothing makes you want to buy at any level. LOL
I buy all the time. If you really mean I don’t join hands with the gold bugs, clap in fervent unison and sing Kumbaya while bleating like a stunned sheep heading for the abatoir then yeah, I am not one of you guys.
Gary, I have never heard you so dismissive of people on here and sounding so confident in yourself. I like it!
I’m sure there are many ex subs like me looking to get back into full membership.
How about one of your money back specials if you don’t reach a certain target?!
Actually I’m making it harder for people to rejoin. I want to get rid of the day traders and people that have no chance of making any money off the bull. They just clutter up the site and make it harder for the rest of us.
This blog is just a sounding board. It is a stretch to think that anyone trades depending entirely on what is posted here. There is lot of burn out in this business. At some point, some of the posters may become your subscribers. I would let anybody post his opinion within the bounds civilised discourse.
well Gary. why should that be if you follow yr cycles..//
Pedestrian,
I believe what MegaMind is referencing is the RSI5 for $USD on the daily. Gary I believe said somewhere on this thread that when that touches overbought it mighr be buy in time for gold. He thinks the dollar won’t stay overbought for long and will head downward after the touch (I believe into ICL but not sure).
He had referenced RSI5 for gold/miners previously but the dollar touch was his more recent indicator.
OK thanks. You know, I looked at GLD since I thought he was referring to gold and then I didn’t mention what chart I was using either. No wonder this place is so confused some days!
Robert what do you think. Are we going to get that pullback?
Of course we are! It has now started. Look for GDX to decline again tomorrow into early next week. It will catch gold bugs by surprise. Gold miners might gap down one of these days and longs will be forced to sell in a panic!
goodcall robert… fed talk is next week… also trump is putting a floor on dollar… the question is
is this a short term dip or a prolonged fall?
Calling Option Trader! Congrats to your great call on Silver!
What’s the path forward for ST and IT for the previous metals? Thanks.
And do you still recommend buying TWTR?
Thank you BOL. Hoping to join the rest of the gang to buy back more shares over the next week or two.
As far as TWTR. I got my butt smashed on this call entry and I deserve it. I was too anxious to spend my SLV gains, I didn’t go with my first goal and wait for my set up confirmation next week. Shame on me and lesson learned.
Patience will reward for all of us. I’m sitting back now and waiting for an entry on precious metals.
Steffmeister, still waiting on that guru chart and his future gold forcast.
Banks dumped today to crash the gold again. 11.1 tonnes of notional dropped in 60 seconds.
http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/11-1-tonnes-of-paper-gold-dumped-in-sixty-seconds/
It did not seem to have the desired affect. On election night they dropped 8 tonnes for that monster drop, all they could manage today was about 10 bucks and it could get soaked right back up tonight.
Nice overall Volume today …still
This bull has many lives to live along our path to 1000% and this administration has already given us the call.
Bill you should have took profits when I said. Now expect a sharp drop in GDX (NUGT) & JNUG. Right here it is closing weak. By tomorrow or Monday you will see GDX 24.5 or lower!
couple of other targets to keep in mind for gdx… 23
if 23 goes it would hit 22
if 22 goes it will hit 19.80
As I’ve stated I’m in for the ride Robert… that position has not change and won’t most likely the next four years at best.
Blog too long? No problem. On windows based computer,use page down or end keys. On Google chrome, use 2 fingers on touch pad for quick scroll.
Or just click on the last entry on the side and it takes you right to it.
Pedestrian I dont know about GDX 21.5, that is really pushing it. I would say somewhere between GDX 23.5 – 24 could end the correction
Even Gary is saying that daily cycle decline is starting. So you can expect at least 3 big red days
We’re at strong resistance levels (200 DMA’s) on the metals. Not to be surprised by a pullback here.
Best thing to do now is sit on our hands and be patient, it’s important to accumulate at least some long term positions and hold tight.
Patience always rewards..
looks like nugt 9 is possible if 3big candles…
MegaMan, I think GDX 23 is the lowest and even that is a stretch. I changed my buying target to 24 now from 24.5. 24.5 could easily happen in 1 day and since today is the start of the reversaL surely 24.5 could get taken out.
Check this out:
The last decline in Gdx started from a high 24.25 to a low of 22.78. Roughly 6%
So if we take the high of this rally at 25.71, a 6% decline equals 24.15. And since this reversal looks stronger with bigger volume then GDX 24 and lower should be doable!
good analysis
Lets see if we get some follow thru on the downside tomorrow. Time will tell.
Usually they hammer gold and silver at night however that hasn’t happened for awhile.
Just as I typed this look on gold now! Crashed after hours to 1226!
I see that someone dumped a big sell order in gold at 3:54pm.
Maybe we will get some follow thru tonight to the downside.
Been waiting for the pullback all week.
Like I said fully expect this post FED rally to lose majority of gains. So target now GDX 23 – 24 region
Robert, I like your posts but you are moving your buy target down as gold is moving down. You’ve already done it twice now in the space of a couple of hours.
Sounds like you are one of those who Gary describes as waiting for the dip but not buying it. No offence intended of course, just hoping that you dont miss anything here.
I sold at 1220 after buying near the bottom after Gary. I’m already buying back in small since the big drop earlier today but will accelerate by buys when the GDX RSI5 gets into the red.
Hamish. I did so because of the strength of the drop in gold miners today and since today is just day 1 of the reversal. It just makes sense that GDX will go lower than 24.5. It hit 24.67 afterhours!
GDXJ prbly 38-39 region to start buying
there is a gap on gdxj at 38
So this is the tricky part. Are we getting a pullback or is this the end of the rally and gold is headed to sub 1,000???
Does anyone have the feeling the dollar is going to get a lot stronger than many expect?
trump definitely lit the fire under the dollar
The general stock market is showing a lot of divergence. The quarterly earning reports this quarter are not that great and low volume on this rally is definitely a red flag.
Best position for the next week or two is nothing but set some goals. Either wait for a reversal candle on the long term charts (on the general markets) or we wait for metals to accelerate downward.
By setting goals I mean determine now what you want to buy and what price you want to pay for it. If you reach that goal, go for it. But not having any goals, your opportunity to buy may pass you by.
Option trader
This is sound advice. Thank you!
“By setting goals I mean determine now what you want to buy and what price you want to pay for it. If you reach that goal, go for it. But not having any goals, your opportunity to buy may pass you by.”
here are two targets… 6% 10% or 20%… depending on how much dollar wants to jump
Sure, anytime Goild
Here is Gary’s entry on this thread regarding $USD RSI5 (it touched overbought today):
Gary Post author
February 7, 2017 at 2:20 pm
The dollar shouldn’t rally for more than 4-8 days.
Once the 5 day RSI touches overbought it should head back down almost immediately.
Right. It is only day one. I would give it a few more days. Other indicators also need to chime in. Price is never in a rush. It takes its own sweet time to do its dance. Many eyeballs keeping gld under watch.