182 thoughts on “DON’T BE AFRAID TO BUY THE DIP”

  1. Robert

    Gary it might not even go that low based on the past corrections last year. Most GDX corrected was like 8%. So if it runs up little more before the correction, GDX 23 might be the low but lets see

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m going to say just track the 5 day RSI. When it hits oversold it’s time to start buying.

  2. Strike

    Gary – My gut feel is that it might not make it to 30 this time – maybe 35-40. Miners are way outperforming. But I’m with you on the move in when RSI dips.

  4. Goild

    I am posting this again as the new thread just started.

    Hey Ped,
    You are still thinking short?
    As I see it the odds are that next week is going to be a another good week for gold/miners.
    You would ask me why?
    Just consider this. Forget about TA.
    We had the week previous to last a red Candle, last week a taller and almost fully engolfing green candle.
    Consider that the candle formation is just right for an entry according to books.
    We have not seen yet a really strong movement. The scenario is just ripe for it to happen.
    The odds of a red candle next week are say 5%, a doji 25%, a green candle 70% I think.
    With the FOMC and Fridays report out of sight, gold has carte blanche to go up. It is leading to correct the election day unexpected drop. Friday also showed that the SM and gold up are compatible. I dumped my 5 NUGT lots on the red week. Now I need to get in again. First thing on Monday I will try to get two lots.
    So you can ponder things and have a take for this coming week: what would be the candle like?

  5. Goild

    Gary,

    I was a bit surprised about your take today. You might be right.
    However, there is the possibility that the miners really overshoot on their fall and this may not
    allow a retracement/dip soon.

    I am looking to get some NUGT lots soon as you can see I see next week with a green candle.

    1. Gary Post author

      The best time to buy leverage IMO is when the market is oversold.

      It’s overbought right now.

      Most traders end up buying breakouts during the middle part of an intermediate rally because they are afraid the market will leave them behind.

      The time to worry about being left behind is when sentiment is extremely pessimistic. That occurs at intermediate bottoms. Once the rally completes the initial impulse off the bottom that sentiment extreme is alleviated. That generally means there isn’t the fuel to drive another big trending move. This is why the middle phase of the rally tends to be more choppy.

      The time to buy is when one is most scared to pull the trigger.

      The time to be cautious is when one is most worried about being left behind.

      I’m going to suggest you might be better off waiting until you are scared again before jumping into leverage. Right now it’s probably better to have just a modest unleveraged position.

  6. Goild

    Gary,

    Thank you. I will try to follow your advice.
    At some point I should get into your premium membership.
    I have too many things running currently and so I need time.
    This game, the best game around, is quite absorbing.

  7. Goild

    For further consideration is that the weekly chart is not overbought.
    The second weekly leg last year was very powerful.
    The daily stochastics call for more overbought lingering as they just started a second phase.
    Nevertheless, at any moment one must exert extreme caution with the 3X leveraged funds.

  8. Goild

    Even more.
    With respect to last year uprising, NUGT is lagging gold.
    Currently there is no significant departure from the averages.
    Still the downside appears shallow in comparison with upside heights.
    Higher highs call for even higher highs.
    NUGT is still a bargain at $12.00.
    The full power of greed can take place any time now.

  9. macman1519

    Buy gold, getting worse and worse TRUMP SAYS WE ARE KILLERS JUST LIKE Putin.

    Washington (CNN)President Donald Trump appeared to equate US actions with the authoritarian regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin in an interview released Saturday, saying, “There are a lot of killers. You think our country’s so innocent?”

    Trump made the remark during an interview with Fox News’ Bill O’Reilly, saying he respected his Russian counterpart.
    “But he’s a killer,” O’Reilly said to Trump.
    “There are a lot of killers. You think our country’s so innocent?” Trump replied.
    A clip of the exchange was released Saturday and the full interview is scheduled to air Sunday.
    It was an unusual assertion coming from the President of the United States. Trump himself, however, has made similar points before.
    “He’s running his country and at least he’s a leader, unlike what we have in this country,” Trump told MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” in December 2015.
    Source: CNN

    What’s next for US and Russia? 01:28
    He continued, “I think our country does plenty of killing also, Joe, so you know. There’s a lot of stupidity going on in the world right now, a lot of killing, a lot of stupidity,” Trump said.
    US Rep. Adam Schiff, a California Democrat who serves on the House Intelligence Committee, called Trump’s claim false.
    “This is the second time Trump has defended Putin against the charge that he’s a killer by saying in effect that the US is no better or different,” Schiff told CNN. “This is as inexplicably bizarre as it is untrue. Does he not see the damage he does with comments like that, and the gift he gives to Russian propaganda?”
    In the interview with O’Reilly, Trump noted that just because he respects someone “doesn’t mean I’m going to get along with them.”
    “He’s a leader of his country and I say it’s better to get along with Russia than not, and if Russia helps us in the fight against ISIS, which is a major fight, and Islamic terrorism all over the world, a major fight — that’s a good thing. Will I get along with them? I have no idea,” Trump said.
    Trump and Putin spoke on the phone last Saturday, and the two discussed cooperation in the fight against ISIS, among other areas.
    Voter fraud?
    O’Reilly also asked Trump whether criticism about comments he makes that he cannot back up with facts are valid. The Fox host brought up Trump’s claim that votes from 3 million undocumented immigrants helped Hillary Clinton get more votes in November.
    “Well, many people have come out and said I’m right. You know that,” Trump replied.
    “I know, but you’ve got to have data to back that up,” O’Reilly replied.
    “Let me just tell you, when you see illegals, people that are not citizens, and they’re on the registration rolls…” Trump said.
    “Look, Bill, we can be babies, but you take a look at the registration, you have illegals, you have dead people, you have this. It’s really a bad situation. It’s really bad.”

    1. macman1519

      Hey dboz, RonL, bill u guys Trump killers, is the military Trump killers, cmon defend this piece if shit, let him have all the power and then the killing starts in earnest by der feurher and his band of killers, buy gold this is going to get ugly fast!!!

      1. sess

        How can he get away with saying that Muslims are killers, blocking them from the US and then he says US have killers too – he is demented!!!! how can people defend this?

        TOP DEFINITION
        Snowflake
        An overly sensitive person that doesn’t take criticism well.
        Donald J Trump.
        Trump is such a snowflake and cannot focus on his job because he is frustrated by the media diminishing his achievements.

        1. ocram

          People should defend Trump with FORCE and violence if necessary!
          I’m disgusted by these “libtards” “snowflakes” (sic…)that continue to protest against the first US president that have the courage to do what he promised in the electoral campaign!!!!

      2. bill

        ….rekax and go back to eating your paste. And stay the hell off the left wing web sites your getting loonier by the day Mac.

      3. ocram

        I’m from Italy and I treally hope Trump/Putin to take the control of this fuckin shitty globalised worlds.
        Europe is invaded by illiterate african immigrants that shit on the streets.
        I REALLY hope merkel to be killed soon!
        I really hope also to see finally americans that voted for Trump to lift their asses off their sofa and demonstrate in favour of Trump!!!!
        LOTS of Europeans are with Trump!!!!

    2. dboz

      Uh, CNN, fake news. Memo to Mac. BO killed people for 8 straight years. The first 2 term president to be at war all 8 years. Trump is in for 2 weeks trying to clean up a horrific mess. Lawlessness of the last admin has led us to the snowflakes thinking illegal is OK if you deem the dissent morally right. BO chose to not enforce laws. He should have been impeached for dereliction of duty and breaking his oath to uphold the Constitution. So get off you holier than thou soap box and give the guy a chance. Oh, and call your liberal reps and ask them to at least show up to vote in a cabinet instead of taking their ball and going home to pout. The country is weak without a cabinet. Dems will own any damage done by their gross negligence. At as Steff pointed out, 10 trillion is a joke to heap on people, that’s why you buy gold. Thanks to the previous admin.

      1. macman1519

        Gold up early in Asia as Trump continues to show his insanity. He needs a mental examination!!!!!
        That was fox news , dboz, u can watch it. I always wondered how a piece of shit like Hitler got to power, and made the German people commit some of the worst atrocities of supposedly any civilized country, now I understand. IM SEEING IT HAPPEN IN THE USA. When supposedly good people blindly follow an insane bully, the results will not be good. When is the last time, a president called Americans, killers, just like Putin? Get ur heads out of Trumps ass so you can hear der Feurhers words .

        1. RonL

          Mac I seem to remember Gary asking you nicely to move your political insults and comments to another site. You obviously have little to no respect for anyone including Gary.f. You are needed at Berkeley to help throw some rocks and fire bombs. You will fit in well with those people. If Gary allows you to stay I hope he at least put in a ignore function on the blog so others can block your post as you add nothing of substance on investing. This blog for you is just a platform for you to rant your far left views and it is becoming very tiresome.

          1. macman1519

            Far left, Ronnie?? No, just not neo nazi like you, when good people refuse to call out your president when he says Americans are killers too just like Putin, you call it fake news and claim im the far left. Sorry, most Americans dont like being compared to Putin. Your boy is Putin’ s puppet, another conclusion ur seeming to miss in your myopic love affair with herr Trump. He is the best thing for gold, the worst thing for the world. That is the trouble with America, so divided between repubs and dems that an idiot like trump is seen as acceptable. Remember, down with tyrants, the Brutus moment is near, this can not continue. Buy gold!!!

        3. dboz

          Mac, You truly look through one eye? Your BOY was taking over countries, taking out dictators, allowing Putin to invade countries, turning an eye to people getting gassed and droning people including Americans. Many killed by BHO. Stop coming on here with your ultra left biased view which lacks of common sense or facts. You sound like a hysterical person in total melt down mode about to lose it. Collect yourself and take a breath. I wish the left was as passionate about veterans and the homeless as they are about illegals and foreigners. Love and help your own first before you worry about helping foreigners. The reason for refugees in the first place is BHO and HRC and their miserable failure of policy.

          If silver can get past 18, nothing to stop it from hitting 19.

          I thought the dips were getting bought quickly on Friday.

          I still think we are heading up next week. Japan is in trouble with bonds. It is now a known absolute the gov of Japan will buy down the bond rate so everyone will now pile on. They are already the largest share holder in a vast majority of stocks. They have no market. It is controlled by the gov. Solely. No idea how that ends? Ped may be correct when he called for the Nikkei to rise.

  10. Steffmeister

    Well macman Trump is innocent (for now) to the exploding debt situation in USA. +800k for every American family, thank you bush/clinton/obama era for that! When this bubble bursts many Americans (and Europeans) will suffer big time causing alot of deaths prematurely.

    GOLD&SILVER:
    If we continues to rip higher next week, this is considered as an impulsive third wave up. Maybe the Bear is over, the probability increases if that is the case. However if gold is going sideways for a while this could be the end of a b, big difference. We still got many weeks of an up move.

    The big difference is, if this is a third wave we will move higher and higher for years and soon set a new ATH for gold.=Severe Inflation, debt liquidation, dollar will lose 30-50% of it’s value in 10years time or more, faster? Trump is hired for this, he is good at debt liquidation, so I’ve been told anyway.

    If this is a C wave up, gold will most certainly set a new low or a retest of 2015 low at 1045.=Deflation, debt and currency crisis.

    We must keep the guard up going forward!

  11. Goild

    As per Fibonacci levels, NUGT has just recovered 20% from its top which would be a picayune bounce.
    The significant $1220 resistance level for gold is becoming support.

  12. Surf City

    I am also looking for a dip to add to my miner positions. We may well get one next week as the USD appears to by bouncing out of a DCL. Longer term, here are some thoughts on why the Miners should be trading over a specified Time horizon.

    In a bull trend, trading Shorter cycles can be tricky but if you invest in Mining stocks, you had best pay attention to a couple of Gold’s longer Cycles: Intermediate Cycle (5-6 months) and its Yearly Cycle. This XAU’Gold Ratio post shows you why.

    https://www.investing.com/analysis/xau-gold-ratio-:-the-deep-dive-200174657?preview_fp_admin_1234=this_is_1234

    1. Pedestrian

      Excellent charting Surfer. Those were really helpful. The XAU/Gold ratio confirms a pullback but suggests it will be weaker than I might have anticipated. We may have to move fast once it bottoms. MACD already has a topping crossover in action.

  13. Option Trader

    I went through a lot of charts in different sectors, this weekend. The only favorable set up on the long term charts with good risk reward is Silver Bullish (supportive for all precious metals). On the short term charts, GDX provided a strong set up into Friday’s close so we should see follow through this week.

    Waiting for a good pullback here for entry? Umm…. that will be an amazing gift..

    1. Pedestrian

      Yes, I sure agree. As I was saying yesterday I feel troubled by gold lately because I have not been able to put my finger on exactly how far down a correction might go and those charts helped with a sense of timing and depth. At this point I think I need to side with Gary’s view that a pullback will be brief.

      And here’s why.

      Most of us here are by now very familiar with the Yen/gold correlation but fewer people seem to pay much attention to the bond chart. What is amazing is just how similar these three charts are on the daily level. It is so stark that each and every one will soon be closing in on their respective support levels very quickly should a reversal in metals get underway.

      But to me the monthly chart of the 30 year treasury is most notable because on that one we can see that we have almost touched the bottom rail of a support line that goes all the way back to 2007. I roughly estimate the coming low to be 148 dollars in round numbers.

      Secondly, I am estimating that the 30 year bond will bottom in just four trading days based on its current trajectory.

      Now I just want to pause and ask readers to consider what it means when long bonds bottom and begin to rise again. Obviously it means that rates will be moving down however what is going to cause that I have no idea.

      But more importantly, when bonds are bid it sometime signals trouble in equity markets or other discord among Central Banks at the policy level. Not always of course but certainly we all know that bonds can rise sharply if stock markets suddenly sell off.

      So as I ponder the importance of the reversal in bonds I cannot help but consider that due to its gold correlation that gold will also bottom at the same time if not on the same day and moreover that this implies a corrective decline in global stock markets.

      And the reason I say that is because not only does gold and bonds correlate but so does gold and Yen/dollars. The salient point that I have not yet revealed is that Yen/dollars moves inverse to the Nikkei. You may have read my other comments on this already.

      Well interestingly enough, if you look at the Nikkei chart on a daily but flip it inverse…well guess what? Damned if it does not also look like the 30 year bond, yen and gold charts!! OK, that’s remarkable. And its enough to encourage me to spend a few minutes of my time writing about so all of you are aware it might be important.

      The inverse Nikkei chart in this case is less correlated but there is no questioning the basic year long pattern and its similarities.

      So what I am telling you here is that:

      IF you believe gold is going to correct modestly to its support line then by default you must also believe bonds and yen will seek their own major support levels and lastly that the Nikkei will fall once those three bottoms are in sight.

      And if the Nikkei falls it implies (fairly strongly by the way) that we will get some kind of correction in European, US stock and developed nations markets. The reason is that all the worlds major indices now trade together both up and down. It is not a precise one for one relationship among them but its good enough for eyeball estimating the outcome.

      So IF you believe that gold is going to bounce once it hits that important support level then by default you also believe that we will see a stock market correction. If we don’t then do not expect gold to get very far because the Nikkei itself determines yen and yen dictates the price of gold.

      Everyone following along still?

      So if long bonds bottom next week then that means gold will only see a short term (and possibly sharp) pullback but that once we get down there buy it with both hands and feet. Because chances are slim the bond bull is dead as so many pundits are predicting. Personally I think it has another two years to run.

      TLT should be a good bet once this corrective decline in gold has ended. Long Yen/dollars (apologies to those guys who use the dollar/yen chart and should instead be going short) and short positions on the stock market of your choice should be the plays.

      I think this could be a really exciting week. I also think gold could take a bloody tooth-smashing face-plant off the high board early on. But as always we will have to wait and see and I want everyone to appreciate that this is highly speculative and based on my own observations.

      The Yen is dictator here. Keep a close eye on news out of Japan that may move that currency in the coming days. Any sharp drop (Yen/$) means gold is going to have a very bad day, bonds will seek their 10 year bottom at major support and stock markets will be on the cusp of a wobble.

      1. Robert

        Interesting. So then few questions Ped:

        Do you think gold will make it to 1230-1250 before pullback?
        How low on this short term pullback will gold & gdx go?

        I say GDX 23’s is where one should start buying and more if lower. If buying leverage like NUGT and JNUG then timing is important due to decay

        1. Pedestrian

          I don’t think gold is going up next week Robert. I can’t make any guarantees either of course and you will have to appreciate that some calls just do not work as we imagine. But I am however feeling a little sure of myself because long bonds will decline as implied by the chart and that tells me gold is going down. The only way it can hit important support levels though is if that decline is precipitous and deep. So buckle up. If we go blood red on metals tomorrow it will be one hell of a roller coaster drop for at least the next three days. The bottom will be one you can buy once its over by weeks end.

          Sounds dramatic doesn’t it? That’s why I love blogging on metals! 🙂

  15. bginvestor

    You can’t time every dip and opportunity; therefore, I have established 1X positions capturing all potential upside potential as well as X3 trade in/out opportunities..

    If it dips , I’ll buy more.. If it doesn’t and keeps going, I’ll still be making money..

    You get the point.

  17. Strike

    Look at the GDX Daily chart with RSI(5) inputted. Look at the 3 day moonshot in RSI at year end 2016. We should expect the inverse this week if the analysis holds.
    That would fulfill Gary’s requirement and Ped’s call for a bloodbath, while agreeing with Surf’s call which has a less specific amplitude prediction for the week’s drop in gold.
    My personal take is that the occurrence of a drop this week is more important than its amplitude. I know Ped is using a support level as the springboard and Gary is basing it on historical RSI drops. But if we turn up here after a milder drop it may be precisely because the previous upmove was not as vigorous as 2016 and hence needed less of a washout.
    My risk would be to be too early.

  19. Goild

    I think looing at GDX is not as appropriate as looking at xau and hui which are very bullish and not departing from the averages yet.

  21. Strike

    BTW Pedestrian, thanks for your careful analysis. My alternate scenario is just that – another possibility.

  25. Goild

    Yen does not determine the price of gold.
    Japan’s gold holdings are too small.
    Currently the price of gold is determined to a good extent by USD and inflation as measured by TIP.
    TIP led the recent gold/miners uprising,
    TIP appears to be forming a double top and this is a very good reason to be cautious going long with gold/miners.

  27. Robert

    Boy. The way it’s going tonight gold could still make a new high so GDX 25 still on the table b4 the correction

    1. Pedestrian

      Isn’t it 72% bulls and 12% neutral according to another post we saw yesterday? Something like that anyway. Sorry if I can’t recall the exact numbers off the top of my head. So you are in good company. The majority are bullish and complacent. Its more than enough fuel to allow a correction when the smallest number are bears.

      Everybody who disagrees with me gets some sort of an award though since I had you wading through such a long post on the topic. A hypothetical Burrito sounds good. Enjoy! No matter what happens, the one thing we will know for sure at the end of the day is that technicals are still more art than science.

        1. Pedestrian

          Sentiment Trader had bulls at 68% according to Gary. So its not overwhelming or an extreme number.But its enough. Anyway, not to worry. I could be wrong and Lord knows I have been wrong before. This is all a speculation so don’t be alarmed (unless gold does face-plant sometime before the market opens.) At which time it will be too late to escape anyway and the trap will have sprung.

  29. Goild

    A bit of the story is to get the trend right.
    The tough part is to have the guts to put the money down.
    And once in, to maintain a good judgement.

  30. Don

    In Gary’s video, he is advising us to buy on the next dip which he feels is imminent. Okay, what if there is no dip ( and I don’t think there will be over the next few weeks). So then what? Gary will have missed an opportunity to make money and will become one of those guys that doesn’t make any money in a bull market. Silver presented a nice buying opportunity on Friday and I bought heavy. Guys, the PMs are on a roll and bullish sentiment is a good thing until it gets over done. Don’t be afraid to buy because the PMs are going much much higher.

    1. Dday

      You might be right. It’s Monday morning gold is up the dollar is up, I expect one has to pull back….. I’ll wait till US markets open before jumping in…..

  32. Option Trader

    Interesting, Kremlin wants apology from Fox News for calling Putin a killer, during a Trump interview.
    F.N. is learning that their not invincible and playing in a bath of flames.
    I’ve had this scary intuition that Putin will teach Trump the ropes on how to break down the walls of our democracy and constitution. We’re in scary times.

  33. Goild

    Good morning

    I agree, the bottom of the next dip might be much higher.
    I doubt this is a bull trap, though a lot of caution is needed as TIP might be forming a double top.
    Mondays are not often a green day for USD.
    I just got one NUGT lot.

  34. Goild

    Dday,

    How come bonds are taken a hit?

    I see the yield down, and bonds up in the investing.com site?

    Yield down is not good for gold.

    1. Dday

      Yea sorry i meant yields, 10year down heavily, I agree not good for gold. I agree with Gary gold topping, could go to $1249 first, but due for a pull back.

  35. ARends

    Kept my JNUGT last week..goood. Interesting gold is leading with a breeze, JPY and EUR not reacting …mm correlations getting lost

    1. ARends

      Will wait 1230 and reassess..nothing works according to expectations to retrace but aim 12230-1250 is proper resistance as previously stated. Iran and trump are showing the winning hand for now. Numbers aren’t great as they amended after published each month to help with FED stat BS.

  37. Goild

    When gold gets around $1250, NUGT might be around $14-$15 which is around election day price.
    Then I also see a pull back. NUGT reaching around $15 is now a piece of cake as is only ~+25%. It can be done in one day.
    Nevertheless, let us not forget that the 3x miners can have a terrible volatility any time.

    1. Dday

      Yep we are still in EU trading hours, and its Monday, and bond yields are down and the dollar is strong……

  39. Goild

    A new trick I gleaned last week: Set a limit order for two NUGT lots at $12.05.
    Wait for the possible 6:00 AM spike and it might be served with an extra quick profit.
    We will see if in a few minutes it works.

  41. Goild

    There was a spike but not deep enough to be served.
    I sold my NUGT lot at +$0.1. I expect to rebuy it lower later.
    Good trading to all.

  43. Goild

    rozelina17

    There is the premarket session starting at 7:00 AM EST.
    You need a brokerage account.
    Did you sell your jnug shares?

  44. rozelina17

    Goild yes i sold on Friday. I an not an American citizen. I am trading via a Swedish account which does allow me to do anything pre or post market. Can I have a brokerage account or not ?

  46. Goild

    I am not familiar with the different trading accounts you can have or with how it works internationally.
    Though I suspect you should be able to have a more versatile account.

  47. rozelina17

    It would be great if I could buy pre and post market. Could recommend any websites where I can register for such an account ?

  50. Robert

    So here we are at 1230 and Gdx near 25 which is what I thought. If no strong reversal today then gold will be heading near 1250 next. It to have missed this move. I am still hoping for a deep pullback that basically wipes out the entire run putting gdx back at 23 but I am starting to feel like it won’t happen. Gary, maybe you are wrong this time and this is a new daily cycle? The USD is going up and gold is not reacting.

  51. Goild

    rozelinda17,

    The Fidelity representative said that yes you can have a Fidelity brokerage account but you need to open it in the US. Transfer of funds can take place later and there are several ways to do it.

  52. rozelina17

    Goild thank you very much!!! Will have a look and try it out. I am on a flight now hope it’s not too late to grab some JNUG when I land…

  54. zkotpen

    Robert,

    “Notice that spike on GDX chart on Wed?”

    I also remarked about that spike last week — Thursday, I think. It spiked to the 200 day SMA.

    That’s what I’m looking at: Miners behavior around the 200 day SMA.

    On the way down, you may recall, I suggested in September that gold & GDX had a date with their respective 200 day SMA’s. That happened at the ICL on October 7, 2016. Observing their behavior at the 200 day SMA’s, I posted that I felt there was another move down. The election night gold spike was an ICH.

    Now, on the way up, still undecided about whether Jan 27 was a DCL for gold or not. Based on overnight price action at the 20 day SMA, it is beginning to look like we could be in the second daily cycle for gold.

    For weeks I’ve been warning about a potential double zig zag up in gold. Plenty of other alternatives are still valid, but a move above the 200 day SMA as ICH, followed by an intermediate decline and another zig zag up into the 1300’s is still very much a possibility. I like that alternative based on math & fractals.

    Concerning the fractals, when gold makes a triangle, it loves to form a double zig zag for wave C. Happens at daily degree, intermediate degree, and now, quite possibly, at yearly degree. Not to mention at smaller degrees than the daily cycle as well.

    At any rate, it’s still too early to say for sure, but that’s a scenario to be aware of & ready to take action on, as it would massively clobber & confound & confuse anybody attached to an excessively bullish or bearish bias. But if you’re ready for it & mentally flexible… you’ll do just fine… whether it plays out that way or not!

    1. Robert

      Zkot, if this is a new daily cycle then we will all miss out on the move but I will not chase. If I miss it I just miss it. Regarding the spiker, these usually signal the top or bottom and no more. In this case I still think GDX 25ish will be the top on this run. Look on the USD daily chart. It looks like it will break out of its cycle downtrend line today. However gold is moving up with USD today which confuses me. Maybe gold is reacting more to the drop in SPY? Who knows, I am gonna stick to my original thought. So GDX 25s and then we break lower to GDX 23. It would suck if gold just keeps going from here leaving us all behind. Would have to find something else to trade

  55. Strike

    Robert I’m with you. But i think miners are starting to roll over compared to $GOLD. Would possibly be what we are looking for.

  56. Option Trader

    You guys just crack me up.. You stumble all over each other and change your directions on the sniff of a breeze.

    I’ll go with Gary’s conclusion that most traders won’t make a dime on a bull run,

    2. Robert

      Nobody is changing directions we are just calling for a dip in miners and gold which will be the next buying opportunity. Stop acting like a douche

      1. bill

        Sure , calling … like I said your next opertunity will
        Be Op x you know what op x is right? Sorry using a Douche term it’s option experation so until then keep hoping for a reversal ain’t happening , it’s going up , buy them you will buy the top and I’ll be selling to you lol .

        That’s how it works lol

          1. Option Trader

            Why discourage someone from buying JNUG here? You might look back to this message and regret it..

  57. Robert

    USD just broke its downtrend line so few days of strenght for the USD coming. Gold is not reacting thus far

  59. Don

    Gold and silver are both up against a rising dollar. Do I have to tell anyone how bullish that is for the PMs? Gary has everyone looking for a dip that may never happen with gold at these levels. looking at the stock market, I think my shorts are going to be the next big payoff. Also, anyone that is playing NGas needs to pay attention . A buying opportunity is in the cards, soon. I am looking for below 2.90.

    1. Gary Post author

      Correction. Gary is trying to make sure traders buy a dip if we get one.

      It says it all right there in the title of the post.

      1. dboz

        TRADERS is the key word also! INVESTORS are riding this big time as OLD TURKEY has proved very lucrative. Thanks!

  60. Option Trader

    I have a lot respect for someone that makes his/her own decision on an entry… whether that be a profit or loss…..
    compared to a trader looking for a confirmation from someone else and following someone else’s lead.

    You can’t make money following the crowd.

  62. Option Trader

    Last week, I shared on the blog a major bull set up for SLV that charted over the span of many years.
    You can’t get more bullish than that.

    It’s fun to trade but you’ve got to have some long positions here that you don’t want to touch,.,

  66. Goild

    I would be very cautious at this point because of the divergence with USD and the possible double TIP top.

  69. Goild

    There is not a great volume in NUGT.
    The bonds yields are negative.
    Beware of a possible drop around 2:00 PM.

    1. Don

      UGAZ is not for an amateur. The decay is ferocious I am waiting for NG to go lower yet although a rally is not improbable. Looking at the charts. I would say NG is going below $2.90 sometime in the next few weeks.

  74. Don

    The bulls are all watching…waiting for a dip …as gold just keeps climbing. My penny stocks are exploding higher today. This rally is for real folks.

  75. earthkitten

    Me thinks many traders are locked out. They missing
    a very powerful up move. Not too late. Should last
    another 2 weeks at least.

  76. ras

    May be. 2 more weeks? could be. Looks like nugt could be heading to the top BB on the weekly with gold moving to $1250 +. This could be the accelerating phase?

  78. Don

    Goild, you bought SLV last week (or was it the week before) and almost immediately bailed out. You buy NUGT and sell it when you have a small profit . You are too cautious to be playing this game and should look at something less volatile than the PM or you are going to eventually get killed.

  79. ras

    When one concentrates too much on micro intra day moves and lose sight of the big picture, he runs the risk of missing out on powerful daily moves. I have been there and learned from the experience.

  80. Don

    The stock market should be where the next big money can be made, on the downside but as I have said before, the stock market the most difficult to predict. It is has become a casino thanks to the central banks. ,

  81. Don

    I am somewhat biased due to a my large short position on the stock market. When it does finally crack, it will probably be breath taking.

    1. ras

      Until we see a clear breakdown in most major market etfs, it is just churning in the stratosphere for SM.

    2. Option Trader

      Don, I’m curious to know what analysis you use to determine your outlook. Do you base it on set ups on the charts?

      1. Don

        Looks like the CBOE VIX may have bottomed out at 9.97 last week, now still low 11.47. Complacency is rampant. Hmmm…

        1. ras

          RE:SM

          It is best to wait until all the 5 major etfs crack together and bounce. That would be it. These etfs are: udow, upro, qld, tna, svxy. Also, add: fas and soxl.

    3. WallStreetJesus

      Don – You are probably right about it being breath taking when it finally cracks. I wonder if we will be alive when the event happens?

      On behalf of our government Goldman Sachs does has done an outstanding job of keeping it propped up.

  83. Goild

    Don, Ras,

    Indeed for focusing on day trading I was left out and have no more NUGT lots.
    I have made good money day trading but I cannot compete with 10K shares (the five lots I had). So far I am behind $0.5 in the five lots or $5K, plus all the work day trading.

    Probably Gary, Ped, and I are now in the same boat.

    1. ras

      It is enough to do well on the whole. Occasionally, everyone strikes out. Nobody gets it right all the time.

    2. WallStreetJesus

      Playing a bull market from the short side is tricky.

      Gary’s advice to buy the dips in a bull market is pretty sound advice.

      There will be a dip who knows when though.

  84. Option Trader

    Everything is lined up perfectly for a continuous bullish move:

    SLV > GLD
    SIL > SLV
    GDX > GLD

    The only thing I find somewhat intriguing:
    GDX>SIL

  86. Don

    The semi conductors have had a nice run. I am betting on the downside. I just bought 400 SOXS (3X leverage) at 8.78

    1. ras

      soxl macd rolling over. Personally, I would wait until price also rolls over and does a bit of a bounce. That would be it. Price usually lags momentum.

    1. ras

      Looks that way. No indicator is perfect, including cycles. All indicators are subject to interpretation in the contextual framework at hand.

    2. ras

      1182 was where daily ma 20 was. When price pulls back to a rising ma 20, it is a text book buy signal. Furthermore, gold is moving in increments of $90. So, we could see gold at 1260 plus before profit taking sets in. I suspect some posters on this board smelled this toward the close of last Friday or earlier.

  95. ras

    Wow, unstoppable power move. Weekly stochastics for nugt above 50. On the weekly, price above mid BB. Last week’s engulfing white candle was a precursor to up coming upside fireworks? Probably, heavy profit taking when price hits upper BB around $16.50 on the weekly on or before Feb 17, OE week. At that point, weekly stochastics could reach 80 plus.

    1. Robert

      Looks like Gary and his subscribers will have to buy miners alot higher than they thought. They missed this move completely!

      1. ras

        Nobody gets it right all the time. Gary says he has been doing extremely well. He will get back in gear in due course. One could run this kind of risk when following an analyst without individual due diligence.

  96. Option Trader

    Guys.. this is nothing.. The excitement hasn’t even began yet.
    The engines are just revving for take off.

  97. bill

    Awesome day… looking forward to a few more still plenty of room to run on debt ceiling noise and geopolitics… rolls hands in an evil manner.

  98. macman1519

    The world has seen enough of Trump to see he is the biggest buffoon on the world stage, who has no political experience, may be a putin’S Puppet, juvenially denigrates any opposition, shows the emotional temperment and maturity of a bratty 7 year old, is ignorant of world affairs, has a Leninist as the Svengali whispering in his ear, and the Republican party is now openly digging their knives into him due to his continued preposterous musings. DUH, GOLD GOING HIGHER.

    3. bill

      No you are the biggest Buffon , nothing worse than a hypocrite liberal. Why aren’t you out breaking windows or burning something down that don’t belong to you? Trading seems way WAY above your IQ Level .

  101. Dreamer

    The entities that paint the charts want to make sure they throw you off and that nothing is text book.

    They want you thinking and trading one way and then they take it other.

    They have all the real time data and its all a rigged game for them in their favor to steal.

  103. ARends

    I see gold resistance of 1235 we at and other 1245 is 10$ off that a pull back could be https://www.tradingview.com/x/mKy5nCEL/
    I decided to take profit 60% of lots tonight Good 22% JNUG , sold @12.40 made good £20K for past week (38%).https://invst.ly/37tav
    I see 3 resistance cross levels as one major in GDXJ at fib 0.618 and expect small daily pull back of 15%. Will get back in and getting free juice to get in to UGAZ with 25% of planned just bought . UGAZ Cycle time seems good, resistance seems possible with trend line, RSI oversold, volume had premature bust but low for ICL at 150MA and will handle if a little drop pops to 2.95. With small in its for me good at fib 0.618.Macd not crossed, (if caught at bottom)..well SL 2.90 some risk not confirmed but 10 days over Dcycle where volume is seen

  104. ras

    Watching forex is fine. Forex movements are reflected in pm stock movements. nugt price movement on 5 minute chart is steady and orderly, no extreme deviations from ma’s. If we get a gap up tomorrow and a move up to 14, there could be a brief dip.

    1. ras

      Great article. Nevertheless, it is important to be on guard and do individual due diligence, without getting locked into preconceived scenarios. Actually, my outlook is similar without using cycles. My first target for nugt is the upper BB on the weekly over the next 10-12 days. Only, time can tell if it is going to pan out or not. Regrettably, future is not entirely predictable.

  106. vin

    10years yield down>>>>>>gold up
    Even though officially we have been told that they are not coupled anymore!😆

  108. TraderPete

    Gold has a volume gap around 1250 and one around 1310. the 1250 gap should be filled soon, and the gap around 1310 later on in the year, perhaps a couple of months down the road. These gaps act like magnets, pulling gold up. There may be a pullback after the 1250 gap is filled, but after that, gold should continue on its merry way higher to fill the gap at 1310.

  109. ras

    $gold weekly: last week, we had the first +ve macd histogram stick. If today’s price movement continues into the week end, we will have a second higher macd histogram stick. Weekly chart has taken over and ruling the roost. Price moving up to top BB on the weekly could be in the works.

      1. MegaMind

        Robert, I think, we will get a false breakdown here to throw the bulls off… so I am suspecting that gdx could go down to 22 with a spike low and that should provide dollar to spike high before rolling over…

        1. Robert

          I am doubting that Mega. The chart looks very identical to early 2016. No significant dips came until May but we will see

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