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Cheer up Gary, you sound a little bit down or you got a bad cold.
Here is how I see it, looking at the American indices they are all in a final 5th wave up. We are getting close to a major correction and that is in line with some very skilled analysts out there. The 17year cycle is about to kick in any day/month now.
My predictions for 2017:
Stockmarket top in April-Q3 at the latest 2017
Bondmarket top Nov-Dec 2017
Gold&Silver, a very good trading opportunity from midsummer. I am looking at several miners to buy at that point in time. Late June, late July or late August maybe. Scaling in three times might be a good strategy during the summer of 2017.
So yes I am one happy camper right now 🙂 just sitting back and relaxing, no foolish bullish a bearish moves at the moment. I am one stubborn grinding trader!
I will save this post for future reference, just for the fun of it.
Two guesses and both was wrong, I hope the predictions is working out a little bit better 😛
I am glad I am not a doctor … I hope you get well soon.
L. Reuteri, L. Plantarum, L. Casei.
And you must have no caries.
Gary, your point of view sounds plausible – nevertheless I don’t think it will become true. Look at the GDPNow forecast (at the moment below 1 % !) and the step by step rising inflation – it smells like stagflation. And that’s no good basis for a stock market bubble – but it’s really good for gold !
My forecast: Stock markets are going to rise slowly without making a bubble, and if we get a recession I expect a stock market collapse. Gold oscillating up and down for several months, no later than autumn it will break out because of manifesting stagflation.
I wish you good health !
I tend to ignore the perma bear types like Mish. They’ve been looking for the next recession for 8 years now.
Bottom line: if the economy really sucked like these folks would like us to believe then consumer confidence would be trending lower. But it’s been steadily trending higher ever since the bottom in 2009.
No we aren’t growing at 4%. For that to happen we would need a new paradigm industry, something like the personal computer in the 80’s and the internet in the 90’s. In lieu of that the Fed has printed a lot of money and kept interest rates too low. I would say this isn’t a bull market driven by GDP growth, it’s a bull market driven by low interest rates and free money.
“it’s a bull market driven by low interest rates and free money.” dead on Gary.
Yepp totally agree, this is going to end very bad.
Watch Mish from 12:30 min mark on. They say it’s never different this time but… also, I think the frequency (time between them getting smaller)of these macro bubbles may have to be considered.
Sorry, I meant watch from 12:50 on..
still lurking for the short-cotton trade.
it may not come until CRB index (and oil) complete their dead-cat bounce next week.
I would love to see a higher high in cotton first, to confirm exhaustion and over-complacency.
Haha be careful shorting cotton. I tried this back in 2011 when cotton was over a dollar which at the time seemed ridiculous.
A less risky trade right now would be long soybean oil.
Sugar had a pretty good day on Friday after running all the stops to close up on the day. Keep an eye on sugar.
Cocoa is also worth keeping an eye on since its down the most year over year of all the commodities.
I’m Short right now Natural Gas with a 1:152 CFD, short it at 3.074, now my stop loss, it seems there is a HS in play and the Put Call Open Interest hit 100 and rolling over.
I could short XLY this week.
Will the low interest rates and free money ever stop?
No, they would rather play the inflation hand then the deflation hand unless they want to make Trump the new Herbert Hoover. And this won’t happen because the 1 percent do not want to lose their paper wealth that they are so proud of.
Here is the Nasdaq on a log scale. Not nearly as extreme yet as it was in 2000.
Someone asked what is the difference between a log and linear scale. Big diff, on a linear scale, the crash of 1987 looks like a small blip. whereas today, the same percentage (25% , I believe( ) would be a huge drop. On a log scale, the percentages get the same movement on the graph. Log charts are much more informative, especially over long time frames.
Do not forget the decay in currencies, inflation adjusted the chart would be even less pleasing to read. Maybe the dollar has lost 30% from year 2000. Fiat currency is a crappy “innovation”.
I do not expect a crash in stockmarkets, but a greater correction for maybe a year. NIKKEI is a different animal, Japan has run out of steam after 25 QE’s. I think NIKKEI will decline into oblivion with a correction of 70% or more.
I didn’t ask what the difference is, the question was rhetorical.
The dataset is the same, only the chart’s presentation is different, numerically, a 25% drop is the same in either one.
And that is why, to me, there aren’t any advantages having a log over lin.
Got that Homer. But just in case someone else is confused, allow me to present the difference between linear and log scales in another way. With the S&P currently at 2380, a 30 point increase is no big event as it is only a 1.2% percentage increase. However, that exact same 30 point increase in 1980 would have been a huge deal because it would have represented a 30% increase on an index that was only at 100. Linear graphs may make sense to some but there is no getting around the fact that a linear graph presents a distorted ‘picture’ . With a log graph, a 1. 5 or 10 percent move produces the same chart movement no matter what the time frame.
The percentage movements of the stock market, when looking at weekly or monthly data, are much smaller now than what they were back during the years 1998-2008. This state of very low volatility is reflected in the VIX and is typical in the late stages of a bull market. It should be noted that volatility doesn’t always appear only in bear markets but can also show up in the final bubble phase of any market. So, Gary may be correct when he says the stock market is entering a bubble phase that will send the indexes accelerating upward but it is important to remember that true bubble phases are not typical of stock market tops which tend to top out and then roll over over time.
Ok let’s talk gold. What’s everyone views this week, Up or down? I have bearish bias because it’s almost getting late in gold intermediate cycle. So upside limited from here
Don, what do you think the odds are of the stock market going straight up from here? The charts look to me like they are ready to explode to the upside. Also, are you still confident gold and silver will do well this week?
I agree that the Nasdaq and S&P look like they are ready to “explode” upward but other indexes such as the Russel 2000 (tracks 2000 small cap stocks) , Valueline (tracks 1675 stocks) and the Wilshire 5000 (tracks 5000 stocks) , are all showing signs of a roll over type pattern, at least on the weekly charts. At a minimum, a correction is in the cards. I think Gary is also expecting a sharp pullback. With respect to the PMs, I have no idea how they will perform next week but in my opinion, they are in bull markets and as Gary has said, all timing errors will be corrected in a bull market. Just don’t get too gung ho on the miners. I am not so sure about them as they may fall in sync with a stock market correction.
Thanks for your quick response and opinions. Any chance I could get your email adddress? I would like to communicate more directly, if that is OK with you.
Sorry, JJ but I don’t want to be writing to individuals as it takes up too much of my time. I have a better idea, how about you give provide your email address and I will contact you if I should get banned or move to a different blog site. Best if you do not to provide your primary address as you could get spammed badly. I am leaving for lunch now so don’t expect further responses for a while. Thanks.
Sounds good. My address is [email protected]— not worried about spam. Just wondering, you are a wealth of knowledge with excellent insight, are you a multi-millionaire??
couple of charts in the video makes sense…
It does and it does come down to price move ment at that rim and tech nical POV will be the key.
technical indictor movement FMI, RSI, CCI
Thanks to others that share
Here is another outlook assessment on Gold from monthly to a hourly assessment POV with external and technical arguments for gold and what to watch out for. Having pointers to lookout for from others help me with some additional trategy.
I love this wisdom and there fore like to look at an array of people that seem wise with different technical tools and outlook.
This wisdom comes from:
Proverbs 11:14New King James Version (NKJV)
14 Where there is no counsel, the people fall;
But in the multitude of counsellors there is safety.
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