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VIVA LA GOLD!!!!
Anybody know why PAAS is a laggard today,
Anything to do with Barrick’s mishap in Argentina?
RUT may be consolidating or perhaps we are looking at distribution.
I don’t get why so many think gold ‘needs’ to correct before going higher. These same will find themselves chasing gold as it breaches $1300 and then $1400.
Would be a lot easier if it just goes up like the SM.
Allegedly pull backs strengthen the market.
Well, ahem.. that’s because nothing goes up in a straight line Donnie boy! And right now, Gold’s intermediate cycle is running long in the tooth and bumping into Resistance. The best time to buy Gold is when Weekly Stochastics/RSI are oversold and people are freaking out, currently not the case.
I will be buying Gold when you start shrieking like a little girl Lol! I hope that answers your question 🙂
Christian: I have been making good coin all through this PM rally and what have you been doing? Let me guess, waiting for a pull back so you can get in. BTW, stochastics are one of the poorest timing indicator one can use and only amateurs give it any attention. Stochastics can remain over bought or over sold for long periods. I don’t even look at it.
What he’s trying to tell you is that your chances of making sustainable gains are much better when you buy low. Your margin of error on the exit is much greater.
For example those that bought the Brexit breakout only had two weeks left before the rally topped. They had to time an almost perfect exit to keep any gains.
Those that bought the Dec bottom had a much greater margin of error. They didn’t need to time a perfect exit to make money.
Hey Christian , did you happen to notice that gold made a fresh six month high today? I guess you did because you have been busy ‘watching”. The monthly charts are not even close to being over bought.
Don — You’re too busy getting defensive and as usual, you’re missing the point. Pour yourself a glass of wine and let me massage those shoulders for you 😏
Ps: I’ve been playing with OIL and Miners but like I said Gold’s current cycle is long in the tooth. Buyer beware!
And IWM finished green today.
Why should the Russell break out ?
The Trump-Rally is over – the Trump-Risks begin.
The GDPnow expects 0.6 % growth only.
The profits of the S&P companies are going to disappoint.
The US debt ceiling is reached.
Why should the SM break out ?
Seriously this rally never had anything to do with tax cuts or stimulus or anything that Trump does or doesn’t do. This was always going to happen. It was destined the day QE1 started.
I agree Gary. If Hillary had won the election, I doubt the outcome for the market would have been any different. That said, Trump will be blamed for the inevitable market crash that is coming. You believe the market is going to go parabolic and I think it will just roll over and die with a final crash.
I think the central bank monetary policies will lead to the same result as every other time in the last 17 years.
Keep interest rates too low too long and print too much money = bubble or bubbles.
Goild, don’t do anything I do. You are a day trader like no other I have ever encountered and to buy and hold something for even a couple of days is just torture for you. You dumped you platinum one day too early. Platinum was the big winner today, up almost 3%. I sold half my platinum yesterday and put the cash to a double leveraged silver fund, AGQ. which was up 3.9% so that worked out OK.
Keeping an open mind. ” Gold isn’t going anywhere for at least 5 years”
Long time gold bull (decades guess that makes me a bug … reformed) don’t own much currently ( just a few miners) but anticipating strong buying with the strong seasonal’s come… July. However, the lead article in Barron’s today ( can’t link) ” Gold isn’t going anywhere for at least 5 years” (John Fargo , Wells Capital) … gives me pause. The basic point is ” we are in the middle of a commodity bear market”. Tend to pay attention when it’s from an independent analyst with no particular axe to grind. Hmm! invested in many other things and perhaps I will be staying there longer then I ever dreamed imaginable. Good luck, it’s always interestiing.
stick to forecasting gold. This very long in the tooth equities market is going to create some big losers sooner than anyone here anticipates.
I made almost 5% on my SOXS investment in just one day. I am glad I sold because the market came back hard at the end of the day and SOXS lost a lot from where I sold it at. Gold went up big today but like a fool, I sold all my miner positions days ago, at a loss because I believed all those that said gold was going down.
I think Don is the only one who has been consistent with the call that gold was going higher but now it seems too late to jump in, at least that is what the general consensus seems to be here on this blog and Gary says it’s too late too. I will wait for a correction.
Smart. If you’re courageous enough.. you could try DUST/JDST to recoup some of your losses, but just as long as you keep a tight leash on that sucker cuz there’s no guarantee. Miners have lagged but they could easily tag the 200 DMA before rolling over with Gold. Silver is a different story.
Wait until the weekly charts get oversold.
Gary, you have been saying that the miners would possibly take out the Dec lows. You think thats still possible after today’s strong performance?
Yes. I think the banksters are going to drive the miners down and break the Dec. lows during the next ICL. That will trigger all kinds of stops and they will be able to enter big positions at the bottom of the next intermediate cycle. The next cycle is likely to be where the bigger gains will be made.
The same thing happened at the January 2016 bottom.
Next ICL to go to Dec. low, if happened, it is possible in end of 2017. I believe miner GDX is going to $31-32 level right now.
Let Don take the risk, gold is straddling the 1276 line of resistance now, 1293 & 1296 being the next lines of resistance. Markets closed on Friday and getting close to expiry week.
No guts no glory.
GARY C’MON!! Let’s SHORT the heck out of Miners and make some money Lol! Pleeeeeeaaase!
Don’t make me beg 🙂
If it makes you feel any better.. You’re helping the ‘old turkeys’ who are clearly gonna need to hedge their position. You’re doing it for the greater good. Not because we’re greedy little piggies.
No short selling for me. It’s too hard making money on the short side.
So if gold runs up above $1300, what I am getting from Gary and Christian is that we should wait until the next cycle low before jumping in. Where are you guys hoping to get in at? $1250? We were at $1250 just yesterday!
I’m saying it’s way too late to be buying now. If you have a position that you bought at lower prices sure hang on and trail a stop (unless you are holding Old Turkey).
But for those contemplating buying now because they are afraid of missing the move, it’s too late. You already missed the move. Those people should wait for the weekly charts to get oversold again before buying. And this time pull the trigger at the bottom instead of letting the opportunity go by.
I see a lot of people letting the opportunity go by right now in energy.
Nimble traders who played nugt over the last 7-8 days did quite well , naysayers notwithstanding. They will continue to do well over the next few weeks if they monitor closely the remaining overhead room and do not get complacent. Of course, gush has been a no brainer for some time now.
Christian, you remind me so much of an old friend called Pedestrian.
You must be reading my mind b/c I think christian is actually PED, no doubt.
Pop go’s NAK on permit news.
Just sold the Rip and bagged 28% of the after hours move. And 36.5% since entry.
Looking to re enter if it clears 1.80
Maybe is because I Tweeted Trup about it last week
I don’t agree. There have been plenty of shake outs in gold during the past several trading sessions and most weak hands are burnt out and on the sidelines, ‘watching’. I think we have at least three weeks of significant upside left before there is any kind of real correction. By that time the weak hands will be dying to get in at the current price and thinking they were ‘smart’ to wait.
If the top doesn’t occur tomorrow it will by next Monday.
It’s just too late in the daily and intermediate cycle, and now short term sentiment is excessively bullish at 83% bulls.
Unlikely. It could take longer than that.
If we don’t top tomorrow gold will top by early next week.
The good thing is that the intermediate cycle is right translated. So we shouldn’t have to worry about dropping below the Dec. low.
As I’ve been saying all along, this bear market talk is nonsense. Gold is in a new bull market, but it’s stuck in a difficult basing process.
Ok I understand what your saying. I was also of the view that miners could hit the Dec lows but since this cycle is right translated we would prbly have to have another daily cycle after this one but a failed one. The senior miners are much stronger than the juniors so maybe its the juniors that will break the Dec lows. We will see how it plays out
Not sure why the above link did not work, so post again.
Here is an example of what I’m talking about.
Nice example Gary. I use the same if I’m long and short XIV and UVXY to exit the loosing side.
BTW the post I made the other week about a UVXY and big weekly Vol seemed to make the bottom for this move up currently.
Currently also shorting the new wave highs in UVXY
Here are a few examples of what we were hearing at the bottom, when no one wanted to buy.
“Gary, you are so focused on the gold and the miners, you are completely missing out on sectors that are actually going up and making investors money.”
“Bull markets don’t stay oversold for long, usually 1-3 weeks–and the stochastics certainly don’t flatline for weeks on end in the single digits as price continues to drop. This is a huge huge red flag that $gold is sick. ”
“So where is your line in the sand for gold. You have been stating gold is in a baby bull, for the last year, at what point would you abandon that theory?”
“Gary, I see you are taking another crack at the ‘dollar is going down’ prediction. Stubborn, huh?”
Now we’ve come 180 degrees in the opposite direction and no one can envision any scenario where gold can go down.
Not many gold bulls on here from what I am reading. Most everyone is bearish or waiting for a pullback to buy. A few are long and a couple of people are very bullish. All the usual gold gurus are extremely bearish on gold and especially silver right now. Usually when all the gurus are bearish they are correct and the gold/silver collapses. Rick Rule is about the only expert that is bullish on gold and miners right now and he is probably the most connected gold guru in the world.
Rick nailed the top in August and if he is bullish one should take note.
Do you realize that was posted almost two weeks ago?
Gold has gone up like $20 and the miners have barely moved. This isn’t the move Rick was talking about.
For the record, I am not bullish on gold right now or silver but have bought some gold/silver microcaps the last few weeks. Some are at or near all time lows right now.
TSA, ETM, & UCL project Ag w/LM @ 3*7 in 1-1.5 mos.
A few analysts are bearish but majority of public are bullish. I see some gold articles on yahoo etc. Then there is the messageboard on Stocktwits. Everyone there is bullish and saying now gold is going to 1300+ and miners to the moon. Cycles are saying gold should drop but just look on the mess going on in the world with N.Korea etc. Maybe the drop will be very mild Gary who knows
There is no way SMs go balistic now or near future unless there is about a ten percent decline first, too much uncertainty for SMs to just take off from these prices. The fangs are telling you what to expect.
I am glad you did well with PPLT.
Patience is something I can have a lot, but in trading I want to see things working out, very soon.
Reflecting on why I sold PPLT is in part because I did not have a good plan for it.
I would say lacking and following trading plans is the main reason we/I do not profit as much.
We are so many savvy traders, and yet many of us gold bugs are missing being in the gold bandwagon. Plainly some of us missed the recent leg up.
JNUG definitely contributed to see things bearish. Amazing now it is lagging NUGT by $3.6. Volume on GLD was very strong today, and so going higher is likely the path of least resistance, especially with the world events. I would not be surprised if by Friday gold is near the $1300.
However, the grim scenario is to have a reversal, which is possible as for gold to keep going up may need TNX to continue going down and USD also going down. This not may not be that easy. Further JNUG is saying things are not OK with the miners; it is issuing a warning. So you guys holding miners be careful about horrible falling knifes.
Goild, you have no patience for long term investing but seem to do okay with the very short term. Stick to what works for you which seems to limited to the next few minutes of trading.
Thanks for the comment.
On December I had a NUGT trade that started with a few thousand shares and ended with 10K shares toward January/February. It produced very good money.
So I am in the look for another nice run like that. But obviously I missed the recent gold run.
I have 3K shares of USO already for several days. So not every thing is micro trading.
I need to do a combination of day trading and swing trading for a better performance. I can have some patience if the trade seems to be working. Though, I acknowledge that I have an issue with patience.
I guess these comments may put emphasis on effectively dealing with whatever trading problems one may have.
The beauty of the swing trade is that one is on automatic; all one has to do is sit tight.
Day trading puts you on alert, is kind of tense work.
Your comments about UGAZ made me taking a look at it.
From my perspective daily volume is not very high.
The recent leg up is mild; showing weakness.
So why not waiting to see if gets back to $15?
The winter/cold is over…
Last year it started to go up till about mid June.
Volume has been decreasing.
Recall that 3X funds will take your money if you hold them long periods.
I will keep an eye on it.
Respect to Goild, as far as I can see he is the only poster here who is actually using leveraged ETfs in the correct way. None of this hold and NUGT will eventually be $500 nonsense. They are meant to be used as short term instruments, and not supposed to be held for long periods of time. Be aware NUGT will probably never get to $500, thats not to say gold won’t rise to $3000+, but Credit Suisse will probably pull it just as they did with DWTI/UWTI. As far as I can see Goild is homing his trading skills and doing quite well..Respect..
My take on gold.
RSI, STOCH, and MACD currently not yet overbought enough. Potentially a few more days of strength before reaching sufficient levels. I’ll consider shorting then. I have made plenty of money on the short side, its no different from going long. When overbought short when oversold go long, simple as that…..
Note I still think gold will trade sideways for the foreseeable future, so I agree with Gary there maybe better plays for now..
ADX has still has a lot of room to move to upside.
If you look weekly, that’s even better. It appears that the trend is just starting. https://invst.ly/3q58g
Agreed not as overbought as some are stating, could have more room to go, adding the weekly to the picture makes things clearer. Critical point in gold here
I do not understand what would be the catalyst for SM going final bubble phase. I believe the final bubble phase is behind us. I don’t understand what suppress that coil because everywhere I look there are liquidity doing disappearing acts. Companies are tapped out their borrowing capacity to buy back their shares. Their revenues and profits are not increasing. If they can’t decrease their number of shares outstanding they are done, finished and dead. that is only IMHO
Profits are up 20% from the 1st quarter of last year.
Hopefully today we make money, and tomorrow too.
Do not take big losses. Beware of the falling knife.
We may have a small DOJI today on gold. So around 10:30 AM might be the time to go long or short.
Good trading to all.
I wonder if Gary ever feels like he’s talking to himself since no matter what chart(s) he puts up people just start babbling about gold
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