140 thoughts on “DOW COIL

  1. LiesandDamnLies

    Hi Gary

    Interesting post. We’ll see how it plays out

    My question is, that if the SM is to correct somewhat significantly over the next 3-5 days doesn’t that translate into a weakening $USD and a rise in GLD? What happens to oil during this interval as well?

    cheers Lies

    1. Gary Post author

      Like I said don’t make any bets on stocks correcting. It may not happen. There are a lot of signs suggesting the ICL has already occurred. The problem is we don’t have a failed daily cycle yet. So the odds are slightly in favor of one more drop.

      But don’t sell short.

      Just be ready to go long. If we do get the drop out of the coil be ready to buy. If not don’t be afraid to chase if we get a follow through day.

      Make no mistake I’m trying to get people prepared to go long. We’ll just have to play it by ear this week and see what unfolds. Just don’t be afraid to pull the trigger if the coil breaks lower.

  2. macman1519

    With the Navy steaming for N Korea, charts wont reveal this uncertainty, got a feeling gold continues to rise as will oil. Uncertainty, war, trump, continue to be good for gold, charts be damned, short term, anyway!!!

  3. earthkitten

    Okay. I’m very confused. On March 27th Gary said the PPT stepped in & stopped
    the correction, thus news highs would be made before correction. Now today’s
    video says probably going down before new high. Very confusing. Seems to
    change more than Tennessee’s weather.

  4. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, not yet, no fall yet.
    As I’ve been mentioning for about 2w now, we need to see USDJPY kissing its 50dma at 112.7 before all these minor trends are over.
    Stock market is already in YC decline (no higher high) but it needs to complete its dead-cat bounce alongside USD.

    The more USDJPY gets close to its 50dma the more we will see gold & treasuries in DC decline preparing gold to touch 1300 in its enxt DC.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      Yellen’s speech later today should be the catalyst for an acceleration of these minor trends through Wednesday morning.

      I can easily guess that inventories’ report on Wed (by that time USDJPY should have already kissed its 50dma and USD topped) should bring all energy complex (and CRB index) back on their secondary trend of the YC decline.

  5. Gary Post author

    I’m pretty sure oil has completed a larger ICL. Notice that RSI is staying overbought. That happens during the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle.

    Many of the energy stocks are starting to behave bullishly and XLE has broken it’s intermediate down trend.

    The dollar and the euro are threatening to break their intermediate trend lines.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      Gary, pls mind that there is a very high probability that that will prove to be a fake trend line break [as well as a fake weekly swing low] of XLE !

      A minor trend of such a degree is peculiar to Lady Market’s bipolar disorder, it is what it is required to produce a positive/bullish divergence with oscillators –> YCLs COME ON SUCH DIVERGENCES, SO THAT THE VERY ABSCENCE OF SUCH A DIVERGENCE IS ONE OF THE INDICATIONS THAT THE YCL STILL LIES AHEAD.

      So pls be prepared for lower lows of risk-on assets in general [hence for gold at 1300 after it goes sub-1245 these days].

      1. Alexandru Popovici

        …I am looking for a bullish divergence on the weekly chart –> so far we’ve had only strong selling; a sentiment follow-through is required before the fever is over — that means lower lows.

  6. 1970confused

    Everyone, and I mean everyone I’m reading these days is bearish GOLD. From Rambus to Surf , Clive Maund to Jordon Roy-Byrne to even Gary these days not to mention the resident bears on this board. If everyboby is leaning bearish to one side how can they be right??!!

    1. Gary Post author

      You are trying to judge overall market sentiment from a few blogs. The actual sentiment on gold is dead neutral at 51% bulls.

      The time to buy is when it drops below 30% or even better below 20% bulls.

    2. SLEP

      Chris Vermeulen, Mahendra Sharma, Harry Dent, and Streibel are also bearish on gold and silver.

      The short, medium, and long-term cycles are now pointing up for both gold and silver, according to the FSC. Also, silver bounced off its upper retracement channel line from above, and is currently backward-dated, and according to ETM, is in a fifth impulse wave. Therefore, expect an explosive rally in the near term for gold and silver, especially silver (since the GSR favors silver).

      Also, if Todd the toad sees his shadow and croaks at the full moon, which is tomorrow, that is an excellent buy signal for the metals. 😎

      1. TraderPete

        The metals also had a reversal, and the GSR held the line at 70. Ribbit. 🙂 📈 ♉️

        PS: Lanci also seems to be bullish silver from what I read on Kitco.

    1. Gary Post author

      I almost never waste time trying to short anything.

      Much easier and a hell of a lot more profitable just finding something that’s going up and moving my money there. Energy stocks are probably going to be the big movers over the next 2-3 months.

  7. Don

    Goild, I am watching the PMs and intend to sell the PPLT and buy a double leveraged Silver ETF with the cash. This correction could go deeper yet but no panic here.

  8. Goild

    Some times the slippage rats are benevolent.
    I bought JUNG at 6.66 while the spread was 6.66-6.67.
    and sold at 6.69 while the spread was at 6.68-6.69.
    Though on Friday they got me like 2.5 points on 10K shares a couple of times or so.

    I need to go. Scalping profit amounted today to $823.
    About 32 round trip trades or $27 per trade which is a horrible performance.
    But hey, risk was at a minimum.
    Have a great day.

  9. Don

    Goild, How could you have possibly increased your profit by shorting JNUG when it has done nothing but go up since you were talking about shorting it?

  10. Bigdaddy

    GDX up today after I sold it at a loss last week. Guys, what ever I do, do just the opposite and you will make lots of money. I cannot win. Don, are you pretty sure the stock market is going to fall? I see that SOXS is doing well. Is it still a good buy?

    1. Gary Post author

      My god quit day trading. You are going to destroy your portfolio.

      Buy XLE and hold onto it for the next 2-3 months.

      Don’t worry if it doesn’t go up immediately after you buy it. Just buy it and hang on.

  11. Goild

    Don,

    I did like three shorts scalping JNUG. The last one at 12.03 PM from 6.85 to 6.815 with 4K shares.
    The first short went wrong, the second I become about even, the third one got me to $909.
    Keep in mind that I am getting 2 or 3 points on 2K shares, and sometimes I double. Before the shorts I had done one or two long trades that put me at $870 or so.
    Call it micro trading.

  12. Goild

    Don,

    Here are the trades since I mentioned the slippage rats:

    JNUG FILLED AT $6.8153 Market Buy to Cover 4000 at Market
    JNUG FILLED AT $6.85 Market Sell Short 2000 at Market
    JNUG FILLED AT $6.82 Market Sell Short 2000 at Market
    JNUG FILLED AT $6.8065 Market Buy to Cover 4000 at Market
    JNUG FILLED AT $6.831 Market Sell Short 2000 at Market
    JNUG FILLED AT $6.78 Market Sell Short 2000 at Market
    JNUG FILLED AT $6.7553 Market Buy to Cover 2000 at Market
    JNUG FILLED AT $6.76 Market Sell Short 2000 at Market
    JNUG FILLED AT $6.754 Market Buy to Cover 2000 at Market
    JNUG FILLED AT $6.77 Market Sell Short 2000 at Market
    JNUG FILLED AT $6.7347 Market Sell 2000 at Market
    JNUG FILLED AT $6.7253 Market Buy 2000 at Market
    JNUG FILLED AT $6.69 Market Sell 2000 at Market
    JNUG FILLED AT $6.66 Market Buy 2000 at Market

  13. Don

    bigdaddy: I think SOXS is still a buy and it will work out fine, so long as the stock market goes down. LOL. The short term gyrations of the market so far today have been neck snapping. This kind of “rapid down, rapid up’ action will often precede a big fall but nothing is guaranteed.

  14. TahoeTrader

    Hello all…new to the conversation.

    I have been following Gary for quite a while (even a subscriber at one time) just to learn about cycles, mostly to see if they were of any use in trading commodity futures (they’re not really). Lately I have been wondering if the way I trade was adaptable to leveraged ETFs, so we’ll see. Just wanted to say I have enjoyed reading the blog the past few weeks – Goild and Don, Don and Pedestrian, Pedestrian and everyone…and Gary. It’s really good to watch the different trading styles at work. Best to all; please keep posting.

  15. jacob2

    I’m happy. Oil, solar, shipping stocks looking good headed in the same direction… UP. Long term trends are hard to find, hoping for a multi month move.

  16. bluelagoon

    JNUG has been lagging NUGT for a few days now. Usually I find this is a precursor to miners going down. I guess we’ll see if this proves to be right once more. Note Yellen is on tap later today. NG seems to be correcting at the moment and then I expect more upside. Looking for UGAZ at $20ish and then holding to $27ish.

  17. Goild

    Well, the differential between JNUG and NUGT has increased from $2 to $3. Quite something.
    The juniors have been punished.
    Had I traded on NUGT I would have probably done better as I do long trades and NUGT has had a positive bias. Perhaps I will switch back to NUGT. Though if I would do a swing trade it would be better on NUGT rather than on JNUG. I guess same applies to PPLT and SLV.

  18. zkotpen

    Goild,

    “Any comments?”

    $14 drop in gold, has slowly bounced back up 86% of that drop.

    I believe daily cycle is moving down for gold and GDX.

    Last week, I pointed out, could be several triangles playing out, at more than one degree of trend, including the current intermediate cycle decline could end up being a sideways consolidation in time, more than down in price. Since then, I’ve begun to assess for the likelihood of that, meaning the current move down would remain ABOVE 1194, resulting in a higher low, followed by more of the sideways stuff, at intermediate degree.

    There is still too much volatility at the 200 day SMA degree — that needs to scrunch down, coil up, whatever. Load the spring before the next move above 1300 in the next IC rally, after the IC consolidation completes.

    Short & medium term thoughts on gold (see above 🙂 )

  19. Alexandru Popovici

    … and the swing low is in –> long gold & short stock market! Minor trends, the dead-cat bounces are over.

    PS: this is underscored by stock market’s inability to grow yesterday despite strong underlying strength and of JPY’s tenacity which itself is underpinned by a [still] bullish COT report.

  20. 1970confused

    So far this morning everyone bearish gold and silver is wrong and we are heading towards 1300$. Like I commented yesterday, if everyone is leaning bearish they can’t all be right? Got to be on the other side of that trade, isn’t that how it works in this con game!!

  21. Robert

    Man I’m really getting tired of gold now. So one sided and no decent dip since FOMC. This intermediate cycle is getting way too stretched. Bulls need to feel some pain and be humbled soon before the next leg up in my opinion. How much longer can this rally last?

  22. 1970confused

    Robert, weren’t you the one crying you wanted gold to go up Nov/Dec time frame? Now you’re mad that it will not go down. Make up your mind!!!!

  23. Bigdaddy

    YESSSSS!!! I finally have a winner! I bought SOXS yesterday and it’s up over 4% this morning. Don, please let me know when you are selling yours. You have been making some dead on calls and I am with you bud. I am not going to screw this up. I only wish I had kept my mining shares . I see gold is very strong today. Trump is going to bomb everyone he doesn’t like into the stone age. Gotta love that guy.

  24. Gary Post author

    There will be better a time to buy gold. Buy when the weekly charts are oversold.

    Unfortunately we are programmed towards recency bias. Now trades can’t envision any scenario where gold can go down. Back in Dec. no one could envision any scenario in which gold could go up.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      Gary, gold’s chart will be oversold on YCL next winter in Jan/Feb 2018 – THIS IS THE LAST TIME TO BUY GOLD AS IT WILL ROLL OVER INTO YC DECLINE AFTER MAY!

  25. Alexandru Popovici

    … besides, as Gary was the first to spot, last ICL came a bit short, on week 12, on Mar20, so that we are now early in the new IC – merely week 5.

    The ICH/YCH should come on week 9, i.e. by May12 the latest.

  26. Don

    Nice moved up in the PMs this morning but if the daily pattern holds, the paper sellers should be soon attempting to drive gold down with a rally towards the end of the day. Goild, looks like trading PPLT for USO was a bad idea although that could change by the end of the day. I ended up selling half my stake in PPLT for a double leveraged play on silver (AGQ). So far, that is working well.

  27. Goild

    Don,

    Yes, it was a bad idea to get rid of the PPLT. I think I should come ahead in a couple of weeks. USO will also go up to the channel top and then I will sell there. If not, well I will have loss.
    I am holding 3K shares of USO and 100 shares of XLE.

  28. bill

    Clean up in Isle 8 :)…many here just got served lol….Miners still suck, but the market sucks even worse lol…All cash here Im not playing these games

  29. Goild

    I would go for breakfast now and then go away.
    Lunch money today is $866 at about 24 round trip trades.
    Have you guys great profits today.

    Beware of falling knifes.

  30. Don

    Google, Microsoft, Apple and Facebook all have very ugly looking weekly charts and are headed south. This could get ugly folks. With all the recent yapping the FED members about over valued market, I don’t see the them propping up the market until it has slid considerably from where we are now, if at all. That said, the other central banks such as those of Japan and Switzerland as well as Norway’s wealth fund, may have other ideas if there investments in American stocks goes sour.

  31. Don

    Informal poll here: Was the chemical attack in Syria the work of Assad or was it a ‘false flag’ event perpetrated by an unknown party interested in having the Americans directly involved in the war? Opinions anyone? Gold could go substantially higher as this situation unfolds.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      In my opinion, gold’s move today and to come has and will have nothing to do w/ Syria; simply USD falling in YC decline towards its YCL in May and driving gold up to its YCH. Nothing more.

    2. RTTPD

      Definitely a false flag. Look what the lousy democrats are doing to Tulsi Gabbard, an Iraq war veteran and one of their own, simply for calling for a legitimate investigation.

      They may be able to slap down the chimp in NK, but slapping down Putin and the Russians is a whole different ballgame. We have a hugely fractured population; theirs is far more autonomous…..and they’d be fighting close to home.

      I spent 6 years as a US Marine and 23 years in law enforcement…..and I wouldn’t lift my pinky finger to help the corrupt dem/reb fight the Russians. I have a good feeling many others feel the same way.

  32. Gary Post author

    I told you what to expect in the video. Be prepared to buy soon as the coil should reverse pretty quickly.

    You also need to be prepared to sell gold soon as it’s late in it’s daily cycle.

    Don’t let recency bias force you to make the same mistakes again that are made at every ICL.

    The trade setting up is long the stock market. Just give the coil a coupe days to finish before buying.

  33. 1970confused

    If you look at the daily of Gold, we’ve been trading between 1240-1260$ for fifteen trading days (3 weeks) after the run-up from 1200$. I think that is called a high base formation that usually is bullish and leads to an upside breakout when the consolidation is over. Think we are witnessing that today… FINALLY!!! Maybe the Chinese are fed up of the Fed and the US political war machine and are behind the rise of Gold after the Syrian attack?!

  34. JJHarmen

    Goild, of what value, to the rest of us, is seeing your postings on how much you have made for lunch money? Allow me to tell you, absolutely none what so ever. No one can follow along with your positions that change by the minute, literally, so what is the point? Perhaps your postings give you a break from watching the trading screen or maybe you just enjoy reading your own words? But hey, don’t stop because maybe someone else gets something out of it your commentary. Personally, I find your expectations on what might happen in days to come to be more interesting.

  35. primetime

    Every expert and amateur alike looks at the same charts and comes to different conclusions. Thus, like I say who do you believe, seems to be nothing more than a blind squirrel finding the nut. Why
    people here give that blow hard Ped a forum is beyond me.

      1. Gary Post author

        I’ll let you in on a secret that you probably already know. No one in the world has a crystal ball. The best we can do is play the odds. The odds are that the coil will quickly reverse once it has dropped far enough to get everyone bearish.

        Be prepared to play the long side of the market soon.

          1. Gary Post author

            We may have gotten a false break down today. We’ll have to see how tomorrow plays out.

  36. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, with May closing in and EURUSD on just day 1 of its new DC, how can USD go up so that stock market resume going up, considering their positive correlation now ?

    1. Gary Post author

      I doubt the dollar will have a sixth daily cycle embedded within the longer intermediate cycle. It’s already 34 weeks long. I thnk once stocks complete the coil the dollar will turn and follow the market up.

  37. Don

    Gold is soaring and no paper selling knock down this morning. Folks, this could be the real deal with gold breaking out and how many are on board? Gary?

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m not bearish on metals. I’ve just been doing this long enough to know that there will be a better time to buy gold. There’s no need to chase 17 weeks into an intermediate cycle. Any gains at this point will be given back during the ICL unless you are good enough to time the top.

      1. Emptyness

        Sorry Gary, but at the moment you are wrong. Cycles are no law of nature, they are only a model of thinking. Gold is rising above the february high and will probably test the longterm downtrend at about 1285. I think gold has a realistic chance to break the longterm downtrend, what will probably push gold much higher.
        Maybe “any gains at this point will be given back” – but first gold is rising !

  38. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, ICL of USX was on Feb 2, on week 24, so that we are now on week 10 of the new IC –> another 4 or 5 to go to produce two IC with an average of 19w per IC.

  39. Don

    Just sold 1000 shares of ZJG at 9.29 to lock in some profit. 500 shares left. Will use the proceeds to buy leveraged metals on a pull back, if there is one.

  40. Don

    BD: Do what you feel you must but I am expecting much more SM downside that could make that 5% gain look puny and the semi conductors are very weak.

  41. ted

    So who called stay long gold and sell the market a few days back?

    And who did Gary berate for that call?

    Hmm, maybe I should get a newsletter service.

    1. Gary Post author

      You are going to make the same mistake again. You’re going to get caught at the top of the gold cycle and you won’t buy the bottom of the stock cycle.

      I’m not giving you day trades here. I’m showing you how to make long term gains by buying low and selling high.

  42. Goild

    JJ,

    I agree, posting profits might be a bit irritating. Sorry for that.
    However, writing here is also a tool to improve my trading and sets a standard to keep up. If I receive more comments about removing the profit line I will adhere to that.

  43. SLEP

    I’m happy to report that Mr. Toad saw his shadow earlier this morning, and it was very ribbiting, that is, he was ribbiting at the silvery full moon. I don’t want to leap to any conclusions, but this means silver may be in for a wild ride to the upside from here on out. 😎 🌝 👍

  44. 1970confused

    Move over Ped… we have anew basher on board called Jake. So Nov. 9, was that the election day manipulation take down. That was normal right, of course it was. Ok so what rock did you crawl out of??

  45. Bigdaddy

    Sold my SOXS just in time and made good money, nearly 5% . It’s has come crashing back down and only up 3% now. I think the sell off in the stock market is over Don.

  46. Don

    Bigdaddy, glad to see you finally make a profit. I just bought another 500 [email protected] for a total now of 1500 shares. If the market rallies, I am going to be a big loser.

          1. Alexandru Popovici

            by “long” everybody means “buy” and by “short” one means “sell”.
            pls check out financial language.

  47. Christian

    I would wait for Weekly RSI/Stochastics to reach oversold before pulling the trigger on Stocks. We’re not there yet.

    And as Gary pointed out several times now.. this formula applies for Gold as well. Trading is all about probabilities so why the F* would anybody buy precious metals when Gold is clearly in overbought territory and hitting Resistance. We’re clearly overdue for a correction, so why not exercise a bit of patience and increase your odds for a good trade?

    1. bluelagoon

      I think the reason Christian is that we have a lot of day traders on this forum. I agree with you on Gold – it’s likely going to top soon a the trendline in the 1280’s especially given miners are nowhere near end of Feb highs and JNUG is lagging so badly behind NUGT when it should be ahead if we are in for more bullish times.

      1. Christian

        Correction — We have a lot of people TRYING to be Day Traders and going about it the wrong way, when they should in actuality stick to a few simple rules first instead of playing cowboys and indians 🙂

  48. Gary Post author

    Watching the Russell. It has a 4 1/2 month sideways consolidation. When that thing breaks out higher it’s going to go a long way and it will pull the rest of the markets with it.

    The big potential is still in energy stocks right here. The weekly charts are just now emerging from oversold.

  49. bluelagoon

    UGAZ down to $20 as predicted yesterday. Victor – like you, I am looking to buy – just want to see if it goes a bit lower tomorrow morning. What’s your target sell?

    1. victor

      target for 3.30 for now, then will see, I think it’s a profitable play for years, I’m jumping off at big resistance and re-lod lower, my best buy was 1.86 in 2016. Loaded UGaz today at 19.89$, will buy more if goes lower.

  50. macman1519

    There is no way SMs go balistic now or near future unless there is about a ten percent decline first, too much uncertainty for SMs to just take off from these prices. The fangs are telling you what to expect.

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