118 thoughts on “WAIT FOR THE WEEKLY CHARTS TO GET OVERSOLD

  1. zkotpen

    I do my own due diligence. Working on shoring up weak areas, while honing my strengths. Sunday was a productive day in bridging the gap between forecasting and trading — making the forecast less theoretical and more practical. Something I really needed to do. Currently testing that work in real time.

    Then the current discussion here is causing me to work super hard on that other area: Strategy. Specifically, knowing EXACTLY when to exit a trade or cut losses — BEFORE entering the trade.

    After all, if you get caught in a losing trade, regardless of whether it’s a day trade, swing trade, or old turkey, probably the biggest strategic challenge is knowing when to let go and just cut your losses, consider them “the cost of doing business”, and re-evaluating. And, of course, knowing when it’s time to grab the profits — before they vanish!

    1. macman1519

      Zkotpen,
      Talk about a useless post that furthers nothing, except reveal the simplistic thinkink of your mind, please spare us your ego.

      1. Christian

        And while you’re at it Macman.. maybe you should heed your own advice and stop posting your political rants that bring zero substance to this forum 😉

      2. vin

        I have been reading his posts for a few months. Most of them are senseless indeed, but the irony is that he is very proud of them as if he a real deep thinker who can analyze any situation perfectly. LOL!

  2. dboz

    Gary, I understand what you are saying. However, we stayed overbought for 3 months, dipped to 50 for a month then stayed overbought again for 3 months in 2016.

    Now after being overbought for a few weeks we are going down a roller coaster ride already?

    Nothing I can do anyway unless I just sell for a big loss and hope to leverage up off the ashes.

    GDXJ is in far worse shape compared to GDX. It’s been hit hard.

    1. dboz

      The gold/miner divergence has made this downturn very painful for miners. The Feb drop was sudden, quick and painful. Minimal March bounce and now significant turndown again with a 30 dollar gold drop. Miners have peeled massive losses in comparison. There are many miners at or below last December lows already. I saw two miners I follow got delisted just in the past week.

  3. ras

    Dicey situation. dust making a double top around 34? If so, it could be ready for a dip, and nugt for a pop, before resumption of trend?
    It could be helpful to monitor senior pm stocks, abx, aem,gg, nem, fnv,gold,rgld, paas,slw, etc. to navigate the murky waters.

  4. cazabrujas

    I have to say that I am surprised in gold’s behavior this morning. I thought we were going to get a short term bounce due to GDP, but it seems like gold is going down on the news, at least for now. If it does bounce up a bit later, I will load up on miner shorts. If a terrible GDP could not give gold a decent lift right away, then there is something fishy going on.

    1. Dday

      SM more favorable than gold, I think gold will need a major news event to rise, with Amazon and the likes posting better than expected profits its hard to see gold bouncing back….

        1. Pedestrian

          Silver should find support today by my way of reading it and be ready to bounce next week. SLV is coming right up on a decent support line as is USLV and the silver chart. You need to go to the daily chart level to get a proper sense of whats coming though.

  5. vin

    I repost:
    “Hello Gary!
    [email protected]$4.15.
    Do you still believe that it will go $500-1000? That is ~12,500% increase. Or, you haven’t given up yet?”
    …………

    Does your silence means you have given up?

    1. zkotpen

      macman1519

      “Talk about a useless post that furthers nothing”

      People sometimes post on here, wondering whether to cut their losses on an underwater position, or to hang on. If my post helps but one of those people make a decision, then it’s useful. I learned that lesson the hard way.

      Ranting and raving about the state of the world, on the other hand, well, sure, I’ve already got your name on my page down key — normally not a problem in and of itself. But the thing is, when there are a lot of posts, such distraction, such flotsam and jetsam scattered about sometimes makes it easier to miss a more relevant post.

      1. vin

        ” Talking about dumbasses!”. I am not suggesting you are one of them.
        “Ranting and raving about the state of the world……” Have you ever read your own posts? I guess you are too smart to do that.
        “…….sometimes makes it easier to miss a more relevant post’ You mean such as yours? LOL!

  6. primetime

    Ped,

    In regards to your USD chart, I can really appreciate your walk. I have not evolved there quite yet.

    However I am in strong agreement with your chart. I have studied the cave drawings and concluded:

    USD major drop + oil up + us recession = major global recession = much higher gold price.

      1. Pedestrian

        I might just start liking you cave guy, Wasn’t that an awesome chart? First time I have seen it drawn that way and on such a long time scale. A picture is truly worth a thousand words. So then would you agree that charts do indeed offer long term market insights? That one looks pretty convincing to me and as a result I have altered my view of the dollar during Trumps reign. Funny but just the other day I had been surmising that Trump appeared to be trying to deflate the dollar and two days late Pence (?) was on the news denying that assertion. The chart seems to confirm that a dollar devaluation will begin at any time now and send all resources including oil much higher.

        Here it is again for anyone who missed it.
        https://goldtadise.com/?p=401635

        1. primetime

          CB’s want inflation-need higher oil and cheaper dollar, both good for gold. I bet they will get what they want, sooner than later.

          Thanks for sharing the nice chart, it did help establish longer term insight, and therefore more credibility.

  7. dboz

    We should hit new all time highs again today after the way the economy was sizzling. That should give plenty of fuel to buy stocks today.

  8. zkotpen

    Gary, Ped,

    I’m still with Gary on this one so far — both daily & intermediate cycles.

  9. Don

    Good video Gary. Your analysis is compelling. Silver is well ahead of gold with it’s decline and due for a rally.

    1. HomerJ

      Not insanity, reality. You either accept fundamental research and go by it or you fall for charts that show lines going off the screen and onto the wall behind it and put your money in hope.
      Hope, like prayer, does nothing. It’s 2017 not 1937. You have all the tools and research available.

  10. primetime

    After watching this video, I am totally convinced, without a doubt, we are in a bull market!

    1. Gary Post author

      Of course we are. I’ve been saying that for a year and a half now.

      We’re just stuck in a basing pattern.

      1. Christian

        Some — whose names shan’t be mentioned — still believe we’re in a Bear Market, Lol! So keep saying it Gary and maybe.. just maybe, one day they’ll listen and realize that the truth has been staring at them in the face this whole time 🙂

        1. Pedestrian

          We absolutely are in a bear market, Christian. I am not just making that up to irritate gold bugs. You will know when it turns back to a bull I guarantee it. At most it is speculation to say we already entered a bull market since we have not had a breakout that gives us that confirmation.

          Just look at the chart. The larger trend is still down if we cannot exceed that upper rail.

          This is not just a personal opinion. It is a fact. And should metals be repulsed and fall they will most certainly be headed in the direction of the lower rail which is your confirmation the bear has not died.

          Lets see gold prove itself first. I am in the camp that thinks we will see a breakout this year (possibly in the next short while). But until that happens lets just stick to what the charts actually say.

  11. victor

    Meanwhile, I’m glad to see my CVM shares goes up 30+ % today, bought 0.115c a few day ago, guys, it will go much higher…

  12. Gary Post author

    Sooner or later the sector needed to bounce and close some of the gap between the 10 DMA.

    That being said I haven’t seen the sentiment and technical levels yet on gold that usually signal a final DCL.

    So I think there is more downside to go yet.

    1. Gary Post author

      A bear flag on GDX to work off some of the oversold conditions would be just what the doctor ordered.

      We are going to get one hell of an opportunity in a month or two.

      1. dboz

        Sentimentrader.com reported that outflows from Gold Miners ETF’s GDX and GDXJ topped $800 million on 4/26, the largest single day outflows in history.

          1. dboz

            Doesn’t everyone selling at the bottom usually mean it’s time to move up? Why most traders never make money. Buy at that breakout and then sell right at the bottom. Just like you say?

      2. ras

        Right now let us concentrate on catching some of this bounce instead of being distracted by what might or might not happen in remote future. One step at a time.

    2. ras

      sentiment,etc. are fine. There may be more downside after this bounce. Right now there is a bounce in leaders. We need to concentrate on catching at least some of this bounce instead of being distracted by what happens after the bounce. One step at a time.

  13. Gary Post author

    This is how traders get stuck on the slope of hope and end up holding all the way down into the bottom of the ICL.

    They search for any piece of positive news. Every bounce is the bottom.

    I’d just watch that weekly chart of gold. When the weekly stochastics reach oversold then start looking for the final bottom.

    1. ras

      This is just a bounce. It will take a few days to complete. Just enjoy the ride and exit promptly. No big deal.

  14. Goild

    Good morning,

    NUGT hit yesterday for a second time $7.6 which is the support point.
    We may have missed loading lots of shares. It may not come back to $7.6.

    Good trading to all.

  15. Gary Post author

    All the classic signs are here. Everyone panicking to buy too quickly.

    This is how the beginning of every intermediate decline begins. Why?

    Because the previous intermediate rally conditioned traders to only see the bullish side. So they want to buy quickly so as not to miss any of the [expected] rally.

    Then they get caught when the next leg down begins.

    This will be a YCL for gold. It’s going to be scary. Gold hasn’t even reached worrisome yet.

    Oh well no one listened to me at the bottom in December. No one listened to me two weeks ago when I tried to get them out at the top. Why would they listen to me now when I try to explain how ICL’s behave?

    1. ras

      Getting caught….Why? it takes only a few seconds to place a sell order. Only price movement is worth paying attention. Rest is individual opinion, which is just fine.

  16. Don

    Gary, ‘they’ not listening to you may have something to do with the fact there have been times when you have been spectacularly wrong. Over the years of following you, I have noted that the more often you hammer on the same theme concerning what you think is coming, the more likely you are to be wrong. For weeks last year, you urged everyone to get on the biotech train and when that sector did nothing, you quietly dropped it and eventually blamed it’s failure to launch on Trump. Then there was your repeated calls for the dollar to slide and that didn’t happen. It is still relatively strong a year later. During the years 2013-2015, you made countless calls for a gold bottom and you were proven wrong over and over until finally, gold made it’s move in early 2016. You never blamed you own faulty analysis for the repeated failures but instead pointed the finger at the bankers for their manipulations.

    Yes, you have made some excellent calls also that include a call last year for the stock market to go higher and you were right. You said not to short the market and you were right. Early this year you called for gold to move up and you were right although you missed much of the move by getting out too early.

    The point I am making is that you are sometimes right and sometimes wrong. Just because you say we are entering a bubble phase for the market or that the miners will test their December lows doesn’t mean you have a crystal ball. I take your calls as educated guesses that may or may not work out as you envision the future.

    1. JJHarmen

      Good points. I have not been overly impressed with Gary due to some of his sector specific predictions ( energy and oil) that didn’t work out well. However, to be fair, he has made some good calls about the stock market in general, and gold since I have been here on this site.

      1. ras

        It was counter move bounce for energy stopped cold by declining 50 ma for gush. Preconceived notions do not always pan out. When they don’t, exiting from the trade is the only viable option.

  17. virji1988

    Gary, i have been tracking you for the past 1 year – you have been darn close I must say!..
    Being a little wrong is good otherwise why would you be here!
    Atleast it is not BO POLNY wrong

    1. Christian

      NO! You’re already getting plenty of ‘freebies’ on the blog. The premium side is more in-depth and provides real time calls. If you’re new at this.. I highly recommend it 🙂

      And I also recommend [in general, I recommend this to everyone] that you sign up with another Analyst as well, so as to avoid the pitfalls of ‘tunnel vision’ and to broaden your overall market perspective.

  18. Don

    There are three stocks holding up the market today : Google, Facebook and Amazon. The market’s leadership is narrowing, in my opinion.

  19. jskauai

    What about silver? Is JPM trying to corner the silver market?…https://seekingalpha.com/article/4066049-jpmorgan-trying-corner-silver-market…does anyone believe that physical silver in the form of bars or coins has the ability to become a “tulip bulb type mania”? Was the price moves that occurred in 2011 a preview of this?
    Well here is my theory… JPM, instead of trying to corner the silver market they are trying to corral it!
    by definition corral a verb to gather together, confine
    What is needed is a goldilock price, that is, not too low and not too high. A price that will allow the miners to make a small profit on silver or as a good byproduct for their bottom line. That is where not too low comes in. And not too high to allow manufactures using silver reasonable prices. And a range bound price to keep the speculators frustrated.
    So it has been put out there the JPM is an agent of the Fed. So could it be that JPM has been given the job to keep an orderly silver market?

    1. Pedestrian

      Probably not. Their motive is purely economic and in the case of silver the speculative play is both strategic and long term. We do know that silver is diminishing given the amount mined each year including new finds and we also know that the above ground resource is incredibly small relative to gold.

      You don’t need to be a math whiz to appreciate that ANY shortage in coming years that is not met by the dishoarding by private investors will result in an explosive price move. In theory anyway, silver should be trading closer to the price of gold given how little is actually available after industrial usage is accounted for.

      Personally I believe it could one day turn out to have been one of the most spectacular investments the likes of JPM ever made. Bought in the single digits or low teens, it could easily fetch hundreds of dollars per ounce and even be remonetized at some stage.

      I don’t want to sound too poetic about it or anything but silver at current prices per ounce has to be one of the cheapest and most undervalued of all commodities available at this time. Given that the availability of silver versus gold in the Earth’s crust is estimated to be as low as 17 to 1 then a back of the napkin estimate per ounce means it should be trading closer to 75 dollars per ounce and that’s without the consideration there is factually so little of it available to the market each year.

      Well that is more than 400% above where price currently sits. Lets give it a few years and see if an absolute shortage develops due to all its newfound uses in batteries, solar and electric cars and I think we will all look dreamily back to the good old days and wonder how we snubbed our noses at today’s prices as though silver were somehow toxic.

      The next bubble in silver two decades hence should be utterly spectacular. You buy silver now for your kids….keep your mouth shut about it….bury it in the backyard and then just wait because today’s tiny cost should run manyfold higher (without even considering inflation). And in the most exceptional cases silver could even approach the price per ounce of gold itself.

      So do like JPM. Just buy it cheap today and wait. That’s how all good investments pay off.

        1. Pedestrian

          LOL to yourself Gary.

          I am talking here about the long term physical ownership of a severely undervalued commodity purchased at today’s prices, not a buy and hold strategy on a 3X ETF that might go to 500 dollars one day.

          What I refer to is actually the definition of investing but is more on the timescale of home ownership (or raising children) than it is like stock market speculation. I have never heard you even talk about this particular subject never mind suggest a multi decade approach.

          So don’t pat yourself on the back too much. This is clearly not in the same category as Old Turkey (I have read the story btw) since very few stocks other than the premium companies continue to prosper over those kind of time frames.

          This kind of investing takes a leap of faith. It requires you to believe that silver will go into shortfall or even faces confiscation or being designated a strategic material. That’s too much for most people. But if the idea is correct the payoff should be spectacular.

          (in your old age).

      1. jskauai

        Ped you be a preachin’ to the choir, LOL! That’s why my theory is plausible, silver has all the potential to become a tulip bulb bats shit crazy mania some day, You ole turkey you.LOL!

  20. ras

    Another worrisome factor about SM: SVXY bumping against a ceiling, bubble phase or otherwise.

  21. bluelagoon

    XOP (parent of GUSH) is closing under the lower trendline this week and looks like 30EMA may just fall beneath the 50MA next week. So looks like GUSH has some more falling to do in the coming weeks. Seasonally it generally ends the month weaker than where it began so I will look for what looks like a high and then short it.

  22. Don

    I was expecting a much bigger bounce for silver today. Gold is sure taking it’s sweet time about breaking down, as Gary is expecting.

  23. bluelagoon

    Looks like a swing low in GDX but Gary got back into a DUST trade today. Is there something I’m missing?

        1. Gary Post author

          Gold needs to complete the conditions for a DCL before we start jumping on the miners.

          I said this would happen. Every up day will be viewed as the bottom. It’s what keeps people holding all the way to the ICL low.

          I need to see some oversold readings on gold and I need to see some short term bearish sentiment reading on gold. Neither has happened yet so I think it’s premature to look for a DCL just yet.

          1. ras

            Local low? possibly. dcl ? may be not. Respect price activity and take advantage of the bounce if one can be nimble. It is important to take the market as it comes, not as we like it . If one concentrates on the present, the future will take care of itself.

          2. Christian

            Careful Gary! I think you might’ve gotten back into DUST a little too soon. I still see a bit more downside momentum on my Charts and they’re usually pretty spot on.

            Also.. Keep in mind that the Miners often precede the move in Gold and might have already found a bottom ahead of Gold’s DCL. That’s a possibility that cannot be discounted.

            Compare sentiment with Precious Metals and Miners and you’ll see what I mean.

          3. Gary Post author

            Robert,
            That was a half cycle low, not a DCL.

            The cycles are evolving into longer timing bands. The cycle down into the Dec. low ran over 50 days.

          4. Gary Post author

            Christian,
            I haven’t seen anything yet to convince me that gold has formed a DCL. No oversold levels and no sentiment extremes yet.

            That being said I’m going to get positioned for the larger ICL. That still needs at least one failed cycle and probably won’t bottom till June.

            So the same thing will happen that always happens. I’m a little early on my trade (we only have 25%) the short term day traders gloat that we took a losing trade. Then some time goes by, the trade turns and does what I was expecting and by the time we exit we’ve made a pile of money while the day traders end up making nothing or losing money.

            I just have a longer time horizon than 90% of the people that frequent blogs. Let’s face it almost every financial blog is mostly day traders, because most retail traders are gamblers and the daily action satisfies their addiction.

          5. Christian

            Gary — You misread what I wrote.. I didn’t say anything about Gold reaching a DCL, not yet at least. I said that the Miners often precede the move in Gold. Sentiment in the Miners is extremely bearish at the moment, which means a bounce of some sort is imminent.

            And just because you have a longer time frame than most doesn’t mean you can ignore the obvious. If you do, you’ll rattle the cage with your subs and they’ll just jump at you like they always do 🙂

  24. samhell

    Has anyone tried Avi ?
    I was considering Gary and Avi for a subscription but Avi is really expensive.

    1. Robert

      Elliot wave is too damn confusing. Alot of variables and different counts. I prefer cycles but its good to know both if you can

    2. Christian

      Don’t ever mention the name AVI or DUCK on this site or else you’ll send our Host into a rage Haha 🙂

  25. bluelagoon

    Avi will give you multiple scenarios so he always ends up being right but your trades may not. Gary gives you his trades and if you follow all of them, you’ll be down some and up others, more up.

    Is anyone else seeing SOXS as potentially bottomed on the monthly? I don’t know much about its larger cycles but it looks like a longer term bottom with a big run ahead.

  26. Gary Post author

    I’m pretty sure the miners are just forming a bear flag before the next leg down. So I wouldn’t be backing up the truck right now. The time to do that is when the weekly charts get oversold and I’m the only one bullish.

    1. Christian

      Can you show me the ‘bear flag’ in the Miners? I’m not seeing it. Perhaps you’re onto something. Perhaps I need bigger glasses.

      1. Gary Post author

        I’m not sure where people have gotten the idea that miners lead the metals. Most of the time they bottom on the same day as gold or a day or two after. Sometimes like in January 2016 they bottom a month or more after gold.

        I guess it just sounds good so people assume that it’s correct, but historically miners rarely ever lead gold. And I think both gold and miners are forming a flag to work off the oversold conditions before the last leg down into the DCL.

  27. SLEP

    My theory is: JPMorganChase is manipulating silver lower by shorting futures in order to accumulate as much physical silver as they want. Once its appetite is satisfied, it will release silver to the moon. Or, it could keep silver and hence gold under wraps for as long as possible to further the cause of the New World Order.

    1. Pedestrian

      A century ago, in 1917, an ounce of silver was worth 17.50 inflation adjusted to today’s money. (Source is Macrotrends and chart is linked below). In other words, today’s silver priced at 17.25 is just slightly less than the purchasing power of a similar ounce of silver of 100 years ago.

      That is really astonishing to me since it shows that silver has mean reverted in value despite its ups and downs across so many years and through the passage of time. It also says that there is no speculative premium in the price at this time and that is also of interest for a commodity known to go through severe boom and bust periods.

      So silver is theoretically a good buy at par value given another boom will eventually arise. The chart linked however argues that silver has put in a massive double top and buyers should hold off until silver falls back to prices below 10 dollars an ounce.

      At the same time, an ounce of gold that sells for 1268 today only had a buying power of 400 dollars in 1917. In other words, gold has tripled its value in what it can buy in 100 years whereas silver has returned to its same old value.

      Put another way, a one dollar silver coin in 1917 that had exactly one dollars purchasing power (as it was circulating then for exactly one dollar) is worth 17.25 dollars today at spot but a one-ounce 20 dollar gold coin of the day sells for 1268 (spot price again, no fancy numismatic stuff here).

      So 20 of those silver dollars is worth a mere 345 dollars which is about a quarter golds value.

      Strange!

      Either there is a massive arbitrage opportunity here in silver or gold is vastly overvalued. I think we all know the correct answer to that question and I suspect that JPM has done the math and decided to put their spare savings into the obvious investment.

      During the next major spec bubble if gold were to double in price then silver might logically rise 8 times its present value. That seems like a reasonable outcome given the past and is probably conservative. Not that anyone knows for certain what will happen but there is such a big difference between how gold and silver are valued that we really need to make some assumptions about what the future holds.

      http://www.macrotrends.net/1470/historical-silver-prices-100-year-chart

      But to answer the post you left, I am not sure you can say that silver has been manipulated at all when it buys almost exactly today what it bought a century ago. If anything, gold has been manipulated higher (as crazy as that sounds) as it is clearly overpriced versus silver.

      1. Pedestrian

        So to say all the above in different words that perhaps make more sense and resonate with the local crowd. Of all the things that are in a bubble today which include stocks, bonds, real estate, farms, fine art, jewelry and antique autos……well silver is not among them.

        Of all the asset classes that face a likely and inevitable deflation, again, silver is not likely going to be among them.

        Silver is rather peculiar in that sense as its valued virtually identically to what it was worth 100 years ago and with this small piece of knowledge we might infer than when all those other assets eventually meet their Waterloo that the obvious place for money to turn will be where there is price stability or speculative potential.

        Not even gold meets these conditions. Think about that for a minute you gold bugs.

      2. TraderPete

        All markets are manipulated to a certain extent. Even Gary knows that to be a fact. 😎

  28. cazabrujas

    I am just waiting for the FOMC to pass to short the F out of the miners. It’s going to be epic, just as the ride back up will be phenomenal.

  29. ras

    nugt, the place to be for a while? dust, to be avoided for a while? Keep in mind 4:1 reverse split for nugt on May 1. To avoid fractional shares after the split, keep shares in integral multiples of 4.

  30. Gary Post author

    Folks if you want to see the big picture switch over to the weekly charts and put a 10 week moving average on the chart.

    Look at the weekly chart of QQQ and tell me what you see.

    Now look at the weekly chart of GDXJ and tell me what you see.

    This is a pretty good way to get rid of all the clutter from all the voices trying to find reasons to justify their bias.

Comments are closed.